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I'm ELIMINATING This Stock From My Portfolio‼️

Jeremy Lefebvre Clips · 20m · transcribed 3d ago
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# 0:00

Evaluating Stock Choices

Which stock should be eliminated from the public account?

The speaker considers eliminating either Google or PayPal from the public account, weighing their exposure to other tech stocks and the potential of PayPal's low P/E ratio.

  • Google and PayPal are the top contenders for elimination from the public account.
  • The speaker has significant exposure to Meta and Amazon, making Google a candidate for sale.
  • PayPal is seen as a cheap stock with potential but uncertain future growth.
# 4:11

Choosing a Stock for Long-Term Investment

Which stock would be chosen for a 5-year investment?

The speaker believes Meta has more upside potential, while Amazon is considered safer. If forced to choose, they would select Meta.

  • Meta is viewed as having higher growth potential compared to Amazon.
  • Amazon is considered a safer investment option over the next five years.
  • The decision between Meta and Amazon is very close.
# 8:23

Current Market Sentiment and New Investors

What is the current sentiment among new investors in the stock market?

New investors are drawn to the market due to stories of quick gains in crypto, but many are currently experiencing losses, leading to a lack of excitement in traditional stocks.

  • Many new investors are entering the market influenced by social media and stories of quick profits.
  • Current market conditions have led to significant losses for recent crypto investors.
  • The lack of excitement in the market is affecting interest in stocks.
# 12:34

What Drives Interest in Stocks?

What types of stocks attract new investors?

Exciting stocks, particularly those associated with innovative technologies like self-driving cars, attract new investors, while traditional stocks like memory chip companies do not.

  • Innovative and futuristic companies generate more interest among potential investors.
  • Stocks like Tesla are more likely to attract new investors than less exciting sectors.
  • The excitement around certain stocks can drive broader market participation.
# 16:46

Finding Opportunities in a Down Market

What should investors do when interest in stocks is low?

The speaker suggests that low interest in individual stocks presents an opportunity to find undervalued gems in the market.

  • Periods of low interest can be ideal for seeking out undervalued stocks.
  • Contrarian investing can yield opportunities when others are not looking.
  • The speaker reflects on their own early experiences in the stock market when interest was similarly low.

Transcript

0:00 Let's talk about public account. Let's talk about if I had you eliminate one stock, you forced me to sell one stock 100% of the public account today, what what stock would it be? Let's talk about if you force me to go all in one stock between now and the end of the year, what stock am I picking? And then for the next 5 years, okay? Let's play this game out. All righty, so looking at the public account here, you forced me to sell all one stock.

0:28 >> >> It would be between Google and PayPal likely. Fubo's a potential. But Fubo, the thing is with Fubo, now that they got rid of gambling, I wouldn't be surprised if the company goes beast mode now for the next year or two. So, that one's I almost think of it in more a little bit more of as a risk now that they got the Disney person there in terms of risk to the upside. So, that kind of make me like, I do I really want to sell Fubo? but Google, in terms of Google, my thought process is not that oh, Google's going to crash over the next couple years, you know, no.

1:08 Like Google's stock should do fine. It's just I already have so much exposure to Meta and Amazon that having Google is kind of a little bit of overkill here. So, like that one, I could make a strong debate for selling. Once again, not because I think it's going to do bad, just because I got so much exposure already to Meta and Amazon, right? And then PayPal comes to mind. And PayPal's just a very cheap stock. Like the stock's forward P is probably eight on PayPal. Again, it's a dirt cheap stock.

1:37 Let's take a peek here at good old Pain Pal. PayPal forward P nine. You know, it's a dirt cheap stock. They put up good numbers quarter in and quarter out. It's just like will they ever be able to get out of this like kind of single-digit P/E range? I don't know. Like they need a catalyst. They need something that, you know, that excites investors to say, "I got to go buy PayPal." They just haven't been able to do it. So, I have doubts about that. And the Alex Chriss show, you know, there was a lot of excitement and hope around him, and I had a lot of excitement and hope around him, too, and he just wasn't able to get the company's numbers to a place, you know, we hoped.

2:18 And he'd come in from Intuit. And so, yeah, if you forced me to cash one, >> >> I'd probably have to go with Pain Pal. Like I said, it's either Pain Pal or Google. So. Yeah. Yeah. Palantir is pretty attractively priced now at this point in time. okay, so next up here, one stock I have to go all in $4.6 million between now and the end of the year, if you force me to go all in one of these stocks between now and the end of the year, >> >> you know what it is.

3:01 I'd probably have to go all in AMD. Probably. Like AMD's probably got the cleanest setup between now and year-end. You know, they're the ones that should come in with the shock and awe over the next couple quarters. They should continue to see the momentum. And so, in the short term that is, you know, over the next 6 to 9 months. And so, probably AMD. You know, if it wasn't going to pick them, I would probably pick ELF.

3:31 ELF is another That's a close second. And the reason is ELF usually sees momentum between, you know, kind of like the Usually that stock kind of bottoms around like spring, cuz they'll come out with this guidance number. It's like lowball guidance. And then they come in and they play this game of beat the numbers, beat the numbers, beat the numbers, and the stock just continues to go higher as the year goes on. So, I think Elf will exit this year likely 100 plus. So, Elf is a close second. It's not as clean of a setup as AMD though. AMD's a much cleaner setup. So, that covers between now and year end.

4:07 And then we say, "Okay, I you forced me $4.6 million all in one stock for the next 5 years in this portfolio. Ooh, boy. It's between Meta and Amazon. It's between Meta and Amazon, no question. No question, it's between those two. And that's tough. That's a tough one. I think Meta has more upside potential over the next 5 years. I think Amazon's safer over the next 5 years.

4:42 So, that's how I would kind of look at those. And if you forced me to say, "Come on, you got to do one." I'd probably go Meta. But it's close. It's close. It's really close between those two, but I probably go Meta, okay? Hey, it's Jeremy. I hope you really enjoyed watching that clip here today. What you're looking at in front of you right there, that's 1000xstocks.com. That's my advanced software that I've been working in the background creating for a long time. This software is so much more advanced than what others are presenting out there in the market. And as somebody that's been in the market 15 years, I want to create something that was simple, that had exactly everything I needed to make my judgments on companies, such as forward P/E ratios, 2-year out forward P/E ratios, price-to-sales ratios, forward price-to-sales ratios. I wanted the ability to be able to compare different companies versus each other. I want to be able to compare a Meta versus a Google versus an Apple and be able to see all those different metrics laid out all next to each other. I I a service that I could listen to conference calls right through and even be able to toggle and adjust the speed I wanted to listen to those conference calls. I wanted a service that I could search SEC filings right through. I wanted the ability to do that all in one service and that is exactly what I've created with thousandstocks.com. You want to apply for access to this, go to the description area of this video. You can click that link and go ahead and apply for access to this. If you don't want to do that, you can go to 1000xstocks.com.

6:15 Enjoy. All right, you want some good news? I'm going to give you some good news right off the bat, okay? Listen. What I'm showing you right now is a chart. Retail investors net single stock buying has fallen to a post-Rona low. So, over the past year or so, we've seen a continuous trend of less and less people being interested in buying single stocks, okay? Now, I believe there's a multitude of factors on what is occurring here, okay?

6:45 But, if you want to look at this from a contrarian angle, if you are somebody out there and you're buying single stocks, individual stocks like I do, you would look at something like this if you're a contrarian and say this is great news. I want to be buying individual stocks when people aren't interested in buying individual stocks. And you can see there's a clear trend. It's not like, "Oh, it's down a little bit." No, no, no, it's fallen off a cliff in terms of people's interest in buying single stocks, right? Now, I believe there's a multitude of factors going on here on why we're seeing this kind of phenomenon over the past, we can call it year to year and a half, occur here, right? Now, my guess is a few things. One, if you look at crypto. Now, crypto's obviously different than stocks, but crypto matters substantially for getting people interested in at least making investments, right? And so, when crypto's rolling, when Bitcoin's rolling, and Ethereum's rolling, right?

7:39 Now, keep in mind those are both down what, 50% plus from their highs, and Ethereum's probably down 60-70% plus from its highs, right? >> >> When Bitcoin and Ethereum are rolling, what happens? People start bragging. Oh, look at how much I just made on Bitcoin. Oh, I just made another $2,000 on Bitcoin today. I just made this much on Ethereum, right? They brag, you start seeing it all over social media, everybody starts getting hyped, FOMO starts, right? There's like a big excitement, and people start looking into making investments because they hear about their friend, their family member who just invested into a crypto and made money, right? So, they start looking into should I buy Bitcoin, should I buy Ethereum, should I start doing something else, right? So, they start looking into stocks. And so, when Bitcoin and Ethereum is like rolling, you can see a lot of new investors get into the stock market as well as being like, you know, people had never invested before, but they heard their cousin who's, you know, not even as smart as them just made, you know, $20,000 in a crypto, now all of a sudden they're they're interested in that.

8:40 Like, I might buy crypto, I might start stocks, you know, and they start researching, start looking into all this stuff, right? They, you know, everybody on social media starts posting about it. So, there's those markets are dead right now, right? Clear as day. And so, they've been bleeding ever since basically around the time Trump got elected, right? And so, ever since then, they've just been bleeding and bleeding and bleeding, there's no excitement, there's nothing but losses there, right?

9:04 Like, anybody that's bought Bitcoin anytime recently, like, I remember Bitcoin back in 2021 was at 70,000. It's not even at 70,000 today, right? So, unless people got it at the lows of 2022 or early 2023, like, they're likely sitting on losses or obviously if they bought like many, many years ago. So, anybody that's bought in the past couple of years here and now at this point in time sitting on fatty losses there's not gains, and that leads to not much excitement out there, right? And people looking into things.

9:29 Then, you got to look to the exciting stocks of the stock market, the ones that usually get people interested, and you hear about, oh, this stock's going beast mode and then people are like hmm, let me start looking into stocks and so they start getting interested and start buying stocks. And one of the most famous stocks, we know what it is. It is good old Tesla, my Tesla. Tesla, my Tesla, is there a better stock that could get people excited about the stock market and to start buying individual stocks than Tesla, right? Tesla, you know, that stock's lower today than it was in the fourth quarter of 2021.

10:03 Fourth quarter 2021, right? You can buy the shares lower. That stock's been, you know, obviously off the 2022 lows, but you can say that for the whole entire Nasdaq. So they're up huge and and all those big tech stocks are up huge from the, you know, the lows back a few years ago when we went through that bear market where the Nasdaq went down like 38% was the biggest drop pretty much since, you know, biggest drop really since the great financial crisis really in the Nasdaq in terms of a sustained downward move there, right? But at the end of day like if you bought Tesla back in 2021, you're still sitting on like nothing, right?

10:37 All these years later. And so when a stock like Tesla is just kind of like dead money for such a long period of time, you know, people are like that doesn't bring much excitement. Then then we finally have the exciting moment. Another Elon Musk company comes public, right? And this is like the one, SpaceX. So exciting, right? Everybody's talking about it. I know plenty of people that bought SpaceX that don't usually ever care about stocks. These are people that literally they don't ever buy individual stocks and they bought SpaceX the day it went public or that over the next few days after it went public. For this is like their one time they go to buy an individual stock and that's the excitement that a company like SpaceX brings and somebody like Elon Musk brings to stock market, right? Like oh, man, we got to buy this. Well, look what has happened to SpaceX stock. You know, look at it. Like like this is the past month in SpaceX. The stock's down about 40%. Talk about a buzzkill.

11:32 The one stock that comes public that gets people excited that never buy individual stocks, and then they're all sitting on huge losses already. They've probably already sold If they haven't sold, they're still holding, and they just watch the stock go lower and lower and lower, and they're like, "Oh my gosh." Like, what a buzzkill to the whole stock market, right? Then, we have the group of stocks that's done amazing and has made people game-changing, life-changing money, and that has been stocks like AMD, stocks like the memory chip companies, right?

12:00 Broadcom, semiconductor companies. But, the issue is with these sorts of stocks, right? I've been fortunate to make millions in these stocks. I'm sure a lot of you guys have made crazy money in these stocks, right? The issue is these stocks, these are stocks that people that are deep already into the stock market buy, right? These aren't like the stocks that are Like, you're not going to get some new investor to the market to be like, "Oh, I'm going to go buy a memory chip stock." Like, no, okay? May Maybe a few weeks ago when Like, everybody and their grandma was talking about memory chip stocks, but that's not the That's not the exciting stuff. That's not the sexy stuff that gets people excited to go buy a stock.

12:38 Like, a memory chip company? Huh? That's not going to get the masses to be like, "Oh my gosh, I got to go create a Fidelity account. I got to go create a Robinhood account, and I got to start buying stocks cuz memory No, that's just They're not the that sort of stock, right? People want to buy the future, right? They want self-driving cars. They want robots. They want to go We're going to go mine asteroids. We're going to be build data centers in outer space. That's the stuff that gets the masses going. The people that don't usually invest in the market.

13:05 Ooh, man, you know, something exciting going on. Memory chip? Oh, the memory chip company's making a fortune right now. They don't care about that. And so, the stocks like AMD, the semiconductor stocks, those have made people that are really in this game fortunes of money. But, for the the masses, it's not going to get them excited to say I got to go, you know, buy these sorts of stocks, right? Now, this leads us to the next subject, prediction markets, right? Prediction markets over the past year or two have taken off like insane, right? And now they're doing polls and it indicates like between 3 and 5% of American adults are now using some sort of prediction markets and kind of gambling in the prediction markets, right? So, that has just taken another pool of people that might get into the stock market, right?

13:52 Because here's here's how it works when when people are thinking about making money and they would get into the stock market, okay? Listen. It's very important everybody understands this. Listen, listen, listen. You have certain groups that, you know, you're you're just getting involved in the stock market trying to figure this thing out. You're like, "What am I going to do?" So, certain people get attracted like day trading, right? Most fail miserably and like end up with just huge losses or they can't even beat the market, right?

14:17 Then you have another group that tries like swing trading and options things. Most of those people fail, right? And you have a certain group that does enough research and kind of get in the Warren Buffett related stuff. They get into long-term investing, value investing, trying to figure out valuations of companies, what I do, right? Building a great portfolio and that's the part that can be saved. The rest is bye-bye, right? The issue is I don't think the stock market right now in the short term is even pulling in people to get involved into the per- the percentage that goes into, you know, trading, swing trading, options, or long-term investing. We're not pulling in that people cuz a lot of those people right now are just getting sucked into prediction markets. So, they're not even really giving the stock market a chance, right? They're like looking at prediction markets and trying to trade those and, you know, the outcome of this and the outcome of that and all those sorts of things and, you know, gambling money back and forth amongst each other.

15:09 So, that is a phenomenon that's going on right now and I think that's also sucking out a lot of people and if you look at, you know, how that chart has played out, right? You know, I don't think it's coincidence that over the past 1 to 2 years prediction markets have taken off like insane and meanwhile, you know, retail investors single stock buys has plummeted. So, I think that's another part to play in this. And then that leads us to next up here. Got to talk about the elephant in the room, Donald Trump, the president of the United States. He is the one that a lot of people were very very excited about, right? Coming into office, okay, Trump's coming into office, we're getting Biden out of here, so exciting.

15:49 you know, all his first term, you know, the markets were crazy, look what happened, you know, it was exciting times, all those sorts of things, right? I can tell you that excitement that occurred in the weeks and months after the election happened, right? It completely faded very shortly after. We got tariff war, the trade war and all that and ever since then it's just been plummeting interest in regards to that, right? And in terms of Trump's approval, it's just kept going down and down and down. You know, this is very different than Trump's first term. Trump's first term, the approval rating started out rough, but then you saw a flip happen about a year into his presidency. And what happened was his approval rating started to go up and up and up, right?

16:35 And unfortunately, what we're seeing this term, the second term, right? Very similar to Biden actually, where it's just trending down, down, down, down. And so, all that excitement about the economy and what's going to happen in the financial markets and crypto, all that stuff has gone right out the door. I mean, you know, you can go through on X and try to read crypto folks, like the crypto people, read their opinion on Trump and his kids and all that stuff, like it is nothing but hate. Like they are mad. They're very very mad. Like they feel like the Trumps made all this money on crypto and everybody else is holding the bag and, you know, they're the only ones that have made money on crypto last several years, right? And so, that's a phenomenon we have going on right now.

17:21 And so, man, that like that's just another bull cycle that's going on, right? So, the moral of the story is here, right? You have not a lot of people really looking at individual stocks or buying individual stocks, right? For you guys, the great news is, once again, I always kind of look at the things from a contrarian angle, this is the time you want to be looking for gems out there in the market when no one else is looking. Like no one's looking for the gold right now. That's when you want to look for the gold, you know? and so, I think it's actually, you know, a great time when people aren't interested. And I take you back to when I first got in the stock market.

17:58 When I first got in the stock market, no one cared about buying individual stocks. Ew, get out of here. I couldn't find anybody in my college, anybody, that would have interested in buying individual stocks. Not one kid in my college, okay? When I worked at Walgreens, I would take physical annual reports and read those on my break, right? None of my managers, none of the pharmacists at Walgreens were interested in individual stocks. They might have had a 401k through Walgreens or whatever, but they weren't in it interested in individual stocks. None of my coworkers were. When then I got hired at QuickTrip and started rising in the ranks in management at QuickTrip, I talked to people till I blew in the face about stocks cuz it's exciting. It's like, you know, when you get involved in something and it's kind of like a hobby that you're doing, right? And you're so excited and you start making money, you want to tell everybody about it and you want to like see if other people I couldn't find anybody that was interested in buying individual stocks.

18:54 Like, oh my gosh, no one existed, right? And then if I told anybody about it, they would nothing but bad things to say. Nothing but bad things to say cuz the stock market had been through a crash. Great Financial Crisis happened, right? And so, people had nothing good to say. No one was interested in buying individual stocks. Couldn't find anybody. It was lonely, man. It's extremely lonely. I like literally for years, I felt like I'm the only person in the world that does this. No kidding.

19:18 Like that's literally how I felt for years. Like my first At my first at least, you know, from when I got in the market end of '08, I didn't feel like there was anybody else that did this till really probably my channel start popping off a little bit in 2017. I felt very lonely. Very lonely, man. It's a lonely place out there when you're an individual stock picker. It's just like nobody cares about buying individual stocks.

19:45 Come on, get out of here, man. Right? So, my message to you guys is focus on building your portfolio, building your wealth over the next 3, 5, 7, 10, 20 years. If other people don't want to participate, that's their loss in the end, right? And that's your gain. And, you know, people get really excited about individual stocks and then not. And they leave the market or they not getting interested, right? And then all of a sudden, you know, something happens and they get really interested again.

20:12 And so, right now we're going through a phase where not a lot of people are very interested in buying individual stocks. A year from now, 2 years from now, they completely flip, right? This stock, that stock, all of a sudden goes on a big run. Prediction markets, people realize they're just gambling their money and they're going to lose it all, right? And next thing you know, all of a sudden interest in the stock market tie again.

20:31 That's how it it goes through waves, man. And so, for you, just focus on building what you got to build. Like I don't care like, you know, like I said, from when I got in the market at the end of '08 all the way through 2017, it felt very lonely. And meanwhile, I was just building my wealth, building my wealth, stacking my chips, right? And that's what you guys got to do. Focus on building your portfolio, your wealth, and you'll be shocked at where you'll be 5 years from now, 10 years from now, 15 years from now, right?

Summary

The discussion revolves around stock market strategies, focusing on which stocks to sell or invest in. The speaker evaluates various stocks in their public account, considering factors like exposure, valuation, and potential catalysts for growth.

- If forced to sell one stock, the speaker would choose PayPal due to its low valuation and lack of growth catalysts, or possibly Google due to overexposure.
- AMD is identified as the top stock to invest in for the short term, with a strong setup expected by year-end.
- ELF is a close second, known for its momentum and ability to beat lowball guidance.
- For a long-term investment of five years, the speaker leans towards Meta for its higher upside potential compared to Amazon, though both are strong contenders.
- Retail investor interest in single stocks has significantly declined, attributed to factors like the poor performance of crypto and lack of excitement in popular stocks like Tesla.
- The rise of prediction markets is drawing potential investors away from traditional stock investing, impacting overall market engagement.
- The speaker emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term wealth building, even during periods of low interest in individual stocks.

Questions Answered

Which stock should be eliminated from the public account?

The speaker considers eliminating either Google or PayPal from the public account, weighing their exposure to other tech stocks and the potential of PayPal's low P/E ratio.

Which stock would be chosen for a 5-year investment?

The speaker believes Meta has more upside potential, while Amazon is considered safer. If forced to choose, they would select Meta.

What is the current sentiment among new investors in the stock market?

New investors are drawn to the market due to stories of quick gains in crypto, but many are currently experiencing losses, leading to a lack of excitement in traditional stocks.

What types of stocks attract new investors?

Exciting stocks, particularly those associated with innovative technologies like self-driving cars, attract new investors, while traditional stocks like memory chip companies do not.

What should investors do when interest in stocks is low?

The speaker suggests that low interest in individual stocks presents an opportunity to find undervalued gems in the market.

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