Transcript
0:00 Hey everybody, welcome back to the channel. We are back on another episode of the daily recap. Thank you everybody for being here. Monday, we are starting off the week and it is going to be a very important week. We have a ton of things that have happened today that we're going to get into and discuss. But this week we officially start big tech earnings. We've got Meta, Microsoft, Tesla all on Wednesday. So I'll be live for the market close. We'll be covering all those earnings. We'll be listening from uh to Meta from 4:30 to 5:30 Eastern and then transitioning to Tesla, which hopefully we get into Tesla right into the uh Q&A. Uh and then we have Apple on Thursday. So, you've got four major tech companies. You have a lot of other companies reporting this week, but those companies are going to be the most important. Not to mention, you have FOMC, which is earlier on Wednesday.
0:43 I'll be live at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. JPAL will be delivering his essentially uh first of four final FOMC meetings for his tenure as the Fed chair. where we are likely not going to get a rate cut. We'll talk more about that today, but going to be big, going to be important. We got FOMC, we got big tech earnings, we got a bunch of headlines this morning. Thank you everybody for being here. Let's get into it. All right, so I think let's start off with uh the biggest headline of the day, which is what I woke up to, which is Invidia putting two billion Dellores into Cororeweave. I thought this was an interesting piece of news um that we got this morning. I think it also probably makes sense for a variety of reasons.
1:26 Nvidia is investing 2 billions of core at 8720 a share. Uh Coree is now comprising almost 80% of the entire portfolio that Nvidia has. They only have invested in APL, uh Intel, Coreweave, Nebius, and I think there's one more than Wii ride, which is a Chinese AV company. Uh so they don't make a ton of investments, but the investments that they do make, they try to be a bit more concentrated on in terms of the capital allocation they have. Now, Nvidia said they're targeting five plus gigawatts of AI factories by 2030 with Core Reef planning early deployments of Nvidia's Ruben platform plus Vera CPUs and Bluefield systems. I think this makes sense for Nvidia. The reason I think it makes sense for Nvidia at the end of the day is because they have about 40 billion of cash. They need to do something with that money. You know, where do they put that money?
2:07 Well, probably give it to their partners. The partners that are accentuating the ecosystem for building out their chips. The interesting thing about this today when Jensen was talking about it live uh with the Cororeweave CEO is that essentially he made the argument that Cororee is not just another company that they're investing to give an equity stake in. Cororeevee is a legitimate partner and I think this is when one of the differentiating reasons for why people have like Cororee over Nebius and I ran as the Neoclads. I like Nebus because I think it's a bit more holistic. They have a lot of equity stakes in different companies like Clickhouse for example which just raised at a $15 billion valuation. Nebio owns 28% of that. I like the diversification of the business and I really like the management team. I've always felt Cororeweave has been a little bit too reliant on a couple of customers and as a result of that it didn't feel like I was getting that much. I feel like I would just buy Nvidia instead. But Coree does have a really important purpose which is to help all these other companies that can't get access directly to Nvidia's GPUs to be able to get access to it. And Nvidia has obviously chosen them as their most trusted partner. One of the reasons Core stock actually got hit in Q4 is not because of a demand issue but because of a supply issue very similar to why Intel got hit a couple days ago. Uh they weren't able to fully execute. there was a delay in one of the data centers they were opening up and that's why Core got hit.
3:15 So Nvidia has now done two things. Not only have they invested $2 billion at 8720 for Core again Core was at 150 at one point so they're getting a pretty deep uh decent discount on the name. Uh but a couple of months ago they also put a $6.3 billion essentially put option which signifies that by 2030 if Core can't sell a a certain amount of GPUs that they've purchased from Nvidia, they can't resell or license them and make an ROI off them then Nvidia will buy those chips back. So Nvidia has really kind of told investors explicitly and implicitly, we are fans of Cororee. We want them to win. Jensen had a hell of an endorsement this morning in terms of talking about why Core Weave is a trusted partner and they put their money where their mouth is. So if you're a Core shareholder, I think this is bullish. If you're an Nvidia shareholder, you want to see more money entering into the ecosystem and I think that's bullish as well. Nvidia stock slightly down on the day Cororee got up to 105. Now the the concern about this is the whole concept of circular financing which I think is legitimate.
4:10 Once again, I think Jensen's argument is correct here that yes, they're giving Cororeweave $2 billion and Cororee is going to take those $2 billion and buy more Nvidia chips 100%. But Cororee is going to make money off those chips that they buy from Nvidia. So the idea that Cororee is going to take Nvidia's money and then buy Nvidia chips, it comes down to the inevitability of the fact that Nvidia is the big guy in this machine of AI. They are the epicenter of AI. They have all the free cash flow in AI. A lot of these other companies don't have free cash flow because they're building out these GP GP data centers that are filled with GPUs. So, at some point, Nvidia is going to have to deploy that capital and put that capital into other names that inevitably are going to buy back their product. And that's not the worst thing to do. What makes it a toxic form of circularity is if Coree is spending two billion or getting two billion, spending two billion, and they can't make three billion off those chips. If Coree can eventually make the ROI off the chips, then I think it's circular, but it's not circular to the point where it's detrimental. It's just, hey, we're in a pretty incredible situation where one company has so much money. It makes sense for them to support the ecosystem.
5:12 Obviously, it benefits them because they get to book some revenue, but it also means that that ecosystem is going through a super cycle in which that company that is participating in the super cycle, whether it's Applied Digital, Iran, Nebius, in this case, Cororeweave, gets to make an ROI and continue to prop up the ecosystem by actually having access to the chips. Again, when there is demand issue, that's when it becomes very scary. This looks like it's a supply issue and this looks like Nvidia is supporting the ecosystem versus Nvidia fueling the ecosystem of demand. That's just not what it looks like based on all the evidence that we've seen when it comes to data centers. In fact, I think this chart right here kind of highlights this as well. Take a look at this. Uh, US data center construction jumped 18.5% year-over-year in October of 2025 to a record 42 billion annualized run rate.
5:58 This is just 3 billion below the 45 billion spent on office building. This Cubs is spending on data centers has tripled since the chat launch in November 2022. Over the same period, office building construction has declined at -40%. So if this wasn't real, I could understand the whole circular financing claims because this is real and it seems like there is an ROI on these data centers. I think it makes sense. Okay, next up is Nancy Pelosi. What did Nancy do over the past 45 days? Well, although she is retiring, we are getting uh I believe this is one of the last few financial disclosures she's going to be forced to be able to put out uh into the ecosystem of financial disclosures because ultimately when she retires, she's not going to have to continuously say what she's been doing because she's not going to be part of Congress anymore. But so far, she hasn't retired yet and we get to see what trade she makes. We are oh so lucky to be alive during the time of the world's greatest trader and get to see the moves that she's making. So here's here's what she did. She bought shares via exercising deep in the money call options on Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tempest. Now what does this mean? When you buy a in the money call option, which back in 2025 and end of 2024, that's what she did on Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tempest. I believe for Tempest, she bought in the money calls for $25.
7:15 Nvidia was 120, Amazon was 150 and Google was or I think Amazon was like 190 and then Google was also 150. So um when you buy a call that's in the money, it's almost like you're buying the stock even if the stock is ahead of the in the money price. So like maybe Google just making this up is 200, you buy the in the money call at 500. You're essentially buying a call that's already in the money. And your goal is to get exposure to the name without using the same amount of capital that you would have to use to actually buy the shares of stock in and of itself. And there's different forms of hedging that you can do with this, but exercising those contracts, which a lot of people don't do. A lot of people tend to, you know, just sell the contract back into the market. But if you actually want to own the stock and you're owning the calls at 150 and Google's now at 340, you can exercise the calls, pay the 150 to be able to get those shares at 150. someone obviously sold you those shares when they uh when when when you uh or sold you those calls and they have to cover those calls with those shares and uh when you exercise them, Google's at 350, you buy them at 150, you're up 2x, which is essentially what she did. So, she did not buy Google, Amazon, Invidia at these prices, she exercised their call options to the tune of 5,000 shares. She trimmed a little bit from each of those positions, but the majority of that she actually exercised and continues to have exposure. Tempest also ended up being a big winner for her as she exercised uh those calls as well. Now, I thought what was more interesting is what she sold.
8:36 Oh, and by the way, she also bought new calls on Google, Amazon, Nvidia, also deep in the money for January 2027. She bought about 20 contracts for each of these deep in the money for January 2027. But, uh the main thing was he exercised her already deep in the money call options. She sold 45,000 shares of Apple. She bought a little bit more in the money calls on Apple for 2027, but insignificant compared to the amount of Apple she sold. Uh 10,000 shares of Disney and 5,000 shares of PayPal. I didn't even know that Nancy owned PayPal, but I guess I'm pretty sure she's taking a loss on this. I mean, she bought PayPal last year around this time. She definitely didn't pay $57. So, yeah, it seems like no one is making money on um on PayPal. But although she sold 5,000 shares of PayPal, I thought what was more interesting is the 10,000 shares being sold of Disney. I have been relatively bearish Disney over the past couple years. I really don't get why people like this stock. Like, put in the chat what your bullcase is. And if you're a parent and you have kids and they watch Bluey and stuff, I I guess I can understand that perspective. But the parks business is capital intensive. The streaming business isn't that good compared to Netflix and the other competitors. And I don't know, I've just never been a big a big fan of Disney. So, uh, the fact that she sold 10,000 shares of Disney kind of shows that maybe she wants to get deeper into other tech plays. Maybe she's not really seeing the upside momentum. The 45,000 shares of Apple, I also thought was pretty interesting because Apple, two big catalysts this year. Number one is this foldable phone potentially, which could reinvigorate the iPhone sales. iPhone 17 already had a pretty good sales cycle. Thursday, we're going to see a 12% quarter growth likely on revenue, which is their best quarter they've had in a couple years. And then two is the advance of Siri uh being powered by Gemini which I think is actually very very bullish for Apple. I really do think that Siri is going to be a gamecher if Apple can integrate it in a meaningful way and that hopefully will just create a new catalyst for the overall market of AI. So looks like she's bearish. Apple, Disney, and PayPal continues to be pretty bullish. Google, Amazon, and Vidia. I think a lot of us here own Google, Amazon, Nvidia. And that's what Nancy is doing when it comes to her trading. All right. Next up is Mr. Michael Bur. I thought this was pretty interesting, guys. I did not expect this to happen. I should have expected this to happen given how he's been talking about the stock. But uh folks, Bur is long GameStop. Ryan Cohen, the CEO of GameStop, bought a million shares uh last week, 500,000 shares on Wednesday, 500,000 shares on Tuesday. Basically spent $23 million. I was kind of wondering why the hell is this guy buying a million shares of GameStop?
11:06 It's always bullish when insiders buys, but but like why was he buying I think he knew that Mr. Bur was getting ready to write a pretty big substack which he released today to go long GameStop. I did not read the entire substack, but here's a quote from it that I thought was interesting. I own GME. I've been buying recently. I expect I am buying at what may soon be 1x tangible book value over 1x net asset value and getting a young Ryan Cohen investing and deploying the company's capital and cash flows perhaps for the next 50 years.
11:32 Now, the irony around this situation is twofold. Number one, and I'm really curious what people think about this. Number one, Bur has been the biggest crit the biggest voice around the AI bubble, right? And the biggest person who's critiquing the AI bubble. So, you've got someone who's very important in financial media saying Nvidia is a scam. Palanter is a scam. All these data centers are going to go belly up. None of it matters, but I'm going long GameStop. Now, there can be a very logical argument for why GameStop is undervalued, why GameStop cash reserves are significant compared to their market cap, yada yada, like their potential trajectory of a pivot into trading cards, all that stuff. But what do we think happens if Nvidia collapses?
12:13 Let's be logical here. Let's be very if Nvidia were to collapse 30%. Do we think GameStop is going to be up that day or that month or that year? No, of course not. GameStop up 8% today because of this article by um or 4% now. lost a decent chunk of the pump from from Bur. But like if he's right that Nvidia collapses, which is from my understanding the current position he has, there's no way in hell that GameStop is going to survive that. So like entering GameStop right now. And again, you might be saying, well, he wants to be long GameStop, he doesn't care about Nvidia. Okay, but timing matters, right? Like entry price matters. If you could get GameStop at $15 if Nvidia goes from 180 to 120 or whatever that he's predicting, I mean, that's better than buying it at $25. So, it is kind of weird that he's saying the whole market's a bubble, but like GameStop's going to be okay. Number two, the biggest irony in this is Bur thinks Bitcoin is pointless. He's investing in GameStop because Ryan Cohen's ability to allocate the company's cash flows is impressive to him for the next 50 years potentially. I don't know if Ryan Cohen's going to be the CEO for the next 50 years, but I guess he thinks he's going to turn GameStop into some type of holding company as an investment vehicle. The problem is Ryan Cohen's number one investment so far has been Bitcoin. They've diluted shareholders like crazy over the past two years and they bought Bitcoin with it. So, I mean, it is just a little weird that he thinks AI is a bubble, but he's buying GameStop, which if AI is a bubble, I think GameStop's not going to be at the price it is today. And then B, he's trusting Ryan Cohen, but Ryan Cohen is buying the thing that he thinks is stupid. I really don't get it. I don't understand it. I think there was a legitimate case why GameStop is undervalued, but when you put all the pieces of the puzzle together, it is a bit of a confusing buy. Let me know what people think in the comments based on Bur's latest. Okay, let's talk about the government shutdown. Now, the events that happened over the weekend in Minnesota have led to Democrats uh having a fundamentally different perspective on ICE and DHS funding. For those that didn't see uh what happened, ICE officers have shot and killed uh one of the protesters who was at the protest in Minnesota. This is the second person that has been killed by ICE soldiers.
14:21 And obviously that has created a lot of tension from both sides, Republicans and Democrats. You have a lot of Republican senators saying, "Hey, we're going to keep funding DHS and ICE, but we want an investigation into how this happened." You have Democrats saying, "We are not going to give another dollar to DHS or ICE." There is now a 79% chance that there will be another US government shutdown by January 31st. So what does this mean for us as investors? A couple things to analyze here. Number one, last time we had a shutdown, which was in October, the S&P 500 rallied by about 2%. Historically, that's what it does. I don't think it's crazy for the stock market if the S&P 500 or if if we were to have a government shutdown. I do think it's not the best for GDP growth.
14:57 Analysts are estimating that we're going to cut 1 to 2% off GDP for Q4. But if you look at the Atlanta Fed um trajectory today for GDP for Q4, Q Q3 came in at 4.7%. They're estimating 5.4% growth even with the government shutdown. So it is quite incredible that if we were to get the government shutdown, which in this case lasted for 40 days, we've never had another shutdown within less than 3 months after the first shutdown. But, uh, if it doesn't knock off a decent chunk of growth, um, and and we continue to grow at 5% every quarter, I mean, that would be pretty incredible. So, I don't know if the growth was will necessarily slow down dramatically because the private sector is just so strong right now. And we're going to see this with company earnings as we have uh this week with big tech. And hopefully that can help the S&P 500 get some momentum because that's kind of what's been lacking because large caps haven't been in favor. But uh, a government shutdown is not a good thing. You have millions of federal workers that will be unemployed.
15:51 They won't be able to get paid. Uh TSA flights. I mean, you just have so many different things that are not going to be working. We all went through it if you lived in the States 40 days ago or for 40 days back in October and that wasn't a good thing. Now, the broader question here is uh if there is a government shutdown, what does it also mean for the midterm elections and how Trump thinks about his base? Well, I think you're going to potentially get some capitulation from Trump. Here's what he tweeted a couple minutes ago. I am sending Tom Hman to Minnesota tonight. He has not been involved in that area, but he knows and likes many of the people there. Tom is tough, but fair and will report directly to me separately. A major investigation is going on with respect to the massive $20 billion plus welfare fraud that has been taking place in Minnesota and is at least partially responsible for the violently organized protests that are going um in Minnesota right now. Having said that, Trump also makes an argument for why he wants to work with Tim Waltz, which is the governor of Minnesota. And here's what he says. Governor Tim Waltz called me with a request to work together with respect to Minnesota. It was a very good call and we actually seem to be on a similar wavelength. I told Governor Waltz that I would have Tom Hman call him and that we are looking for in any old criminals that they have in their possession. The governor very respectfully understood that and I will be speaking to him in the near future. He was happy that Tom H. Homeman was going to Minnesota and so am I. We have had such tremendous success in Washington DC and now we will have it in Minnesota. Crime is way down, but both Governor Walt and I want to make it better. Governor Walt is not necessarily happy about what's happening with ICE in the state. And Trump is trying to defend ICE being in the state.
17:24 You got a lot of Democrats that are threatening to shut down the entire government, which is not going to be good for the midterms, especially if it hurts the stock market and federal workers are unemployed. Uh you've already got a lot of people upset about what's happened over the weekend. So, I think Trump is trying to find a way to be like, is there a compromise that we can negotiate with Minnesota so that we still look strong and powerful with how we're representing ICE, but the people of Minnesota get what they want and that ultimately Democrats don't have to hold the entire government hostage uh based on this DHS and ICE funding. On Saturday, midnight this week, funding is going to run out. So, I am very curious to see what happens. Will it affect the stock market? Probably. people would have a massive impact to the point where, you know, stocks just fall off the cliff because their earnings growth can't match up with the reality of the government shutdown. I don't think so.
18:09 That didn't happen last time, but it's something that none of us can ignore. And so, the tariff question is now a question on if we are going to get the Supreme Court answer on tariffs this week. Maybe we do, maybe we don't. FOMC, there's a 2% chance of a rate cut. We're likely not going to get a rate cut. Goldman Sachs came out today said it's going to be a pretty boring FOMC, but Trump will have to deal with Pal giving the outline for the trajectory of where the rate cuts are going to come from.
18:29 Goldman Sachs actually thinks uh June and September are going to be the next cut. So we might not get a cut for another for another six months. Uh and now we have this question of a shutdown. The Greenland stuff hopefully is over. We had to deal with that last week and I guess that's not that big of a deal anymore. So those are the big things that are happening this week and eventually they're going to converge, but if we can avoid a shutdown, we have good big tech earnings and we inevitably get a path towards another rate cut should be decent for the equity. Okay, last couple macro things that I want to show everybody. Again, big tech earnings going to be really important this week.
18:59 Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, and Apple. But so far, this from Bank of America, 64 companies have reported out of the S&P 500, 70% have had EPS beats, 67% have had revenue beats, and 53% have had EPS and revenue beats. So, we're seeing companies put up some decent earnings if they can continue to put up those earnings, then obviously that would be a very good thing for the broader equity markets. Um, but it's not like companies are not having good earnings. And as long as those earnings continue, then we should hopefully have some more momentum. Uh silver did hit $110 today.
19:30 It's kind of crazy. Now, that silver price is starting to come down uh a little bit. It's up 9 months in a row. This is history in the making. In fact, it had its best day today since 2008. The price has come down since the very top. It got up to 116. It's now at 108. So, it's not at the same level it was at before. Gold has passed 5,000. But the silver and gold rally is becoming quite incredible. And quite frankly, you know, you can see the chart right there. It maybe is taking a breather, which is probably normal because it had the best day it had since 2008. But uh is it over? Is it a top? I'm trying to do a lot more research trying to understand it. Copper is one of the assets I'm getting interested in. I'm going to try to present as much research as I can on that. My fear on other assets in the commodity space is that if silver and gold put in an epic top, it affects the entire commodities market because a lot of it might just be fueled by sentiment.
20:18 But if it's not fueled by sentiment, if it's fueled by the uh government continuously debasing their own currency, if it's fueled by less exposure to the USD as a reserve uh as a as a as a uh currency of foreign reserves that we are starting to see. Bloomberg had a really good chart of the percentage allocation that has gone from 60% back in 2000 to now 40% in 2026. We're just seeing more and more companies or more and more governments and central banks say, "Hey, maybe we don't want to have exposure to the USD as the basis for how we think of currency and as a result exposure is coming down. Treasuries are being sold off and money is coming into gold and silver. Is that toppy? Is that going to get rugpulled? Is that something that's fake?" I don't know. It feels more real than not. But I think more research needs to be done and I would be very curious to see what people say in the comments in terms of how they think of gold and silver in general and the momentum that it has been getting. But we are seeing some record inflows into this stuff and it's uh it's quite incredible to witness. Last chart I want to show right here for everybody. I thought this was also really important as well in terms of some of the broader momentum that we're seeing in the equity markets. ETF flows continue to be very strong 121 billion so far year to date as you can see right there VO is getting 19 billion so far. Uh then you have SPY XLF gold obviously Bitcoin is not there unfortunately Bitcoin has not really been the beneficiary of that but $121 billion have come so far into ETFs in the United States. Now the one thing that's different about this and this is the last chart I'll show is that the S&P 500 is actually a 1% year to date. It is one of the worst performing countries so far this year. Uh the average country is up 6.5% year-to- date versus the S&P 500. India is actually the absolute worst at negative 5%. But Peru, South Korea, Colombia, Brazil, Chile, Turkey, South Africa, Mexico, Taiwan, Greece, Netherlands, all of them are outperforming. The reason for that, in my opinion, is cuz large caps haven't participated. And this is going to be the week where we see large caps hopefully start to participate. If they do, the S&P might regain some of that momentum, potentially getting us back to that 7,000. All right, that's it for me.
22:29 Thank everybody for listening and watching New York City Meetup. We have about 15 spots left. You can check it out in the description. Very excited to see everyone in uh February 1st on Sunday. If you're going, leave a comment below. Hopefully, I'll be able to see you guys. I'll leave my Instagram in the description as well. I'll be vlogging, showing behind the scenes, all that stuff of the meetup. And super excited. LA, March 28th. Book it. I'll have the link on February 2nd for people to sign up. Los Angeles, we're coming March 28th. Very, very excited to see everybody. Thank you all for being here.