BOND YIELDS STAY HIGH, BESSENT ISSUES A WARNING TO IRAN, BTC 79K | MARKET CLOSE

0:17 All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market close. We are live. It is Monday, August 24th. Thank you all for being here. We've had a bunch of things happen in the past 4 hours since the market opened that we are going to discuss. Ultimately, it ended up being a red day and there's a variety of reasons for why we are red. Bitcoin, we could not get above 80,000. We're at 78,773 right now. We fell below 79,000. Sand is still down 7% on the day. Robin Hood ended up falling 4%.

0:48 Nvidia lost 209 really in the last 5 minutes. 208 right here. It was pushing 217 in the morning. So, obviously a relatively ugly day. We do have some sectors that are green that we'll talk about. crypto in general has been, you know, green even though it didn't get to the levels that I think we wanted at least on Bitcoin. But still a relatively ug ugly day. You had Basant give his speech around Iran and well there are some updates from that speech.

1:13 We'll talk about the 10-year Treasury still did not really like it as we are still at 4.7 on the US 10ear 4.702. Oil did come down a little bit today, but then it came right back. I mean, we were at 8350 and now we're at 85. So, in terms of the announcements working to actually get some of these macro dynamics to get in our favor. It didn't really work, but nonetheless, we will analyze everything that said and try to get a better understanding of what is actually going on. So, real quick before we get into all of our headlines, a couple of housekeeping things. First of all, got new AirPods, so the audio should be good. these AirPods actually fit better than my previous ones. And quite frankly, I needed another pair because those were getting really old. So, I think it's actually good that I got another pair. So, they should be fine with the audio. Number two, I did some investigating on this YouTube ad thing, and this is what I found so far. So, this is my market open. After the market open ended, I saw something that I've never seen in the settings on YouTube Studio. It says, "Show midroll ads during my video." Obviously, as you can see, that's not selected, right? Now, this is my market close settings.

2:26 Manual, automatic, or scheduled for ads. If I click scheduled, you have to do it every like 20 minutes or whatever. If I do automatic, it's going to be low, medium, or high. If I do manual, which I've been doing for the past four years, you have to manually insert them. If I don't manually insert them, then there's going to be no ads. So, for you guys seeing ads in the middle of stream, I really don't know what to tell you because the setting is on manual. after the stream was over for the market open.

2:52 It then gave this new setting called show midroll ads. I wish this was here before the stream is over. Like this is not showing up for the market close for some reason. but I don't know. I I would hope that this is fixed and if it's not, it is what it is. But I'm not sure there's that much I could continue doing from there. But it is off on my side. The second piece of housekeeping is can we acknowledge that it's time to celebrate the fall? Look at that. This is what I get on the side while picking up these AirPods. Pumpkin spice and vanilla cake batter. This studio is about to smell amazing. I just want to say it's fall, Okay, it is fall and we are about to enjoy some pumpkin spice and vanilla cake batter.

3:39 It was five bucks while I get the AirPods. If I'm spending 250 bucks on the AirPods, got to spend the five bucks on the on the pumpkin spice candles. It's time to bring in the fall. Anyway, let's get into it. Micron down 6%. Sandis down 7%. Madna down five. Rocket Lab down five. Robin Hood down five. DRAM down six. Oh, I bought something today. I bought Intel. I bought Intel. I bought 100 shares of Intel. there's a simple logic behind this. The CEO bought 100,000 shares at 95. Pelosi obviously obviously bought Blue Energy and Intel today and Blue Energy had a nice little reversal even though it is selling off a little bit into the close, but at least it's green 203 down from 209, but it was up from 185. and you know, the 15 billion offering that Intel had was 20x over subscribed. So, I thought, you know, I bought Intel at 99 a couple days ago. I said if I was going to DCA on something, I think Intel can go lower after Nvidia earnings. I think all the semis can go a lot lower after Nvidia earnings, but if Nvidia is already selling off into the earnings, I mean, are they really going to take Nvidia below 100 going into earnings? Maybe.

4:37 Maybe. But, usually Nvidia pumps and the entire market pumps going into the earnings and then you sell the RIP. This time you're getting a little bit of a dump into the earnings which to me is actually a bit more bullish than not. So bought more Intel at its deposition. let me know in the chat if anyone bought anything today. But that's what I did. I did not buy Bloom. Did not buy more Bloom, but Intel I did buy another 100 shares. So what did Basense say? I think this was kind of the biggest news of the day. We'll obviously have a lot to analyze in terms of what happened, but at its core he basically said that if you do business with Iran, we are not going to do business with you. And again, for those complaining about the ads, I'm sorry. I don't know what to do. I really just don't know what to do. But I don't know. I'll try to contact YouTube. From the digging that I did, it's turned off on my side.

5:21 So, at this point, this is Google just monetizing for the hell of monetizing now. >> And we'll accelerate the speed with which we pursue them. As I speak, Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control is also sanctioning over 60 entities, individuals, and vessels around the world that enable the Iranian regime to procure illicit nuclear and missile technology, conduct cyber operations, and generate oil revenue.

5:51 This is a sustained campaign to collapse every last option for Iran. Let there be no ambiguity as to the position of the United States. An economic engagement of any kind with this murderous regime will expose those responsible to the full reach of American power for decades. This and will >> so obviously Bent is not happy there. Before we continue, I see Chad says, "Hey, my son is watching. Can you give a shout out to my son?" Shout out to Chad's son. your dad is awesome. He was great on the latest podcast and he is a superstar in our online finance community. I don't know if you think your dad's cool, but your dad is definitely pretty cool. So, and he's always posting in the chat, which makes him cooler as well. So, shout out to Chad's son, but thank you for listening in to to the market close right here as your dad is legit. All right. So, what did Basen say?

6:47 Basically, hey, if you do business with Iran, we're not going to be working with you. The US will pursue a zero leakage strategy on Iran's sanctions targeting assets including digital technology, gold, and aviation. The scent warned that no one is above the reach of US sanctions, including China linked entities. I don't know how aggressively they're going to try to go after China, but nonetheless, you know, it seems like they're trying to go after it as Trump presses world leaders to further isolate Iran economically.

7:10 Basically, it was a more broader level of analysis around the sanctions that are already in place. But nothing was that new. Like, yeah, you have more sanctions. Cool. But what else? You know, Bassen did say that like we're going to be targeting a financial institution pretty soon, one of the largest financial institutions in the world. They're going to be getting sanctioned. given what's been happening with Iran. No one knows exactly when that's going to happen, how that's going to happen. But at its core, Bent's claim is like, hey, there's going to be a lot of entities that are going to come under fire for some of the stuff they've been doing, and now we just have to see if this ends up playing out. So the reason the market ended up falling throughout the day and really didn't have any recovery, I mean at least Nabi has bounced from 2011 to 210 but obviously still down 4% on the day was at 220 and the market open. Meta getting a little bit of a bounce right there as all the hyperscalers got some juice while the semis ended up taking a hit. I think I think it's simply based on the idea that you know you're not going to see any meaningful excitement in regards to what's happening with deescalation. And if you're not seeing any deescalation in a meaningful way, then obviously it's going to be tough for Iran to get that much momentum.

8:18 20862 down about 2.84% is that is also red on the day for Nvidia. Madna was down about 3.4% holding 140. Madna fell to 130 at one point. So the fact that's actually getting a little bit of love is nice, but still red on the day. SpaceX ugly day down 2%. Rocket Lab even uglier down 6%. I mean, I thought Rock Lab would really not see 67 and it didn't see 67 today, but man, it's 20 cents away from getting into that 67 range.

8:44 And I think the interesting thing about Rocket Lab is it has a tendency to bounce at 6768. Like, I know it stayed at 60s a couple weeks ago, but then it had a slew of announcements and then you had SpaceX kind of rally up. So, Rocket Lab was able to like hold this the mid70s. If it actually goes below, you know, the $65 range, I wonder where the bottom is on this thing. 57 was the low that had hit a couple times in March and July and literally bounced off 57 every time. There was only two times, but that was the bottom on Rocket Lab.

9:12 We are not that far away from reaching that level if this thing ends up giving out. Netflix right there at 80 bucks. This was up about 1% on the day as well. So would not be nice to see, but nonetheless, everything has ended up taking a hit as the market really didn't interpret any of the stuff that Trump said in or in a nice way. There's another recap going a little bit deeper into what Bent said as the tenure continues to stick above 4.7 >> made this afternoon by the Treasury Secretary against Iran. Aean >> Scott, they're calling it operation economic outcast. But the Treasury Department stopping short of imposing widely expected sort of massive secondary sanctions against countries that do business within with Iran.

9:53 Instead, saying what they're doing is putting those countries on notice. The the Treasury Secretary called it a warning shot and saying that after an unspecified timeline, they'll take unspecified action against those countries if they don't bring themselves into compliance with US expectations about trade with Iran. The Treasury Secretary was asked in the press conference that he had at 1:00 this afternoon, why not impose those sanctions today? And his answer explains a lot. Here's what he said.

10:23 We are giving everyone the opportunity the to remedy bad behavior. Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set and give people a cure period, but they should know that that will move very quickly and that we are serious. >> So the Treasury Secretary there saying he didn't want to blow up the global financial system. And clearly that would happen if you tried to impose massive secondary sanctions on China and just about every other economy that trades with Iran. So the challenge for Treasury is how to impose these how to impose US credibility financially on these other countries without doing too much damage to the global economy.

11:07 So with this warning period, what the Treasury Secretary is saying is that it gives countries time to get themselves right with US expectations for trade. Meanwhile, Scott, just within the past couple of seconds here, we've gotten a reaction from the Iranian economy minister telling state TV in Iran, this is according to Reuters, saying that we are fully prepared for the US sanctions. They cannot cut off our financial arteries. So, the Iranians sort of doing some chest thumping of their own here.

11:37 >> I mean, it's just it's it's once again, it's like I don't know if this is going to work. The fact that we've given up on military action, which is a good thing, I think in general, that we're not escalating with violence on both sides, is like positive, but then if you're not going to have military action, I don't think the Iranians are going to be afraid of sanctions, especially when the sanctions aren't even affecting the the countries that they work with. Like if we sanction China, obviously that would be a big deal, but as Bassan said, that would, you know, blow up the financial system. And if China's going to keep buying Iranian oil, then the Iranians are going to have money. So, it's it's one of those things where it's like I don't know this new economic D-Day and how it's going to work out. I'm hoping it gets both sides of the table and maybe there's some negotiations happening behind the scene and this is all just grandstanding from both sides.

12:19 But at its core, if it doesn't do anything and you know, bond yields are acting like it's really not going to do much, which is why we're still pumping here at 4.7, then it's going to create more instability and volatility in the stock market. And obviously with Nvidia earnings on Wednesday, we also have that catalyst that creates some more uncertainty. So, we're going to see how this ends up playing out as we get through a very, very busy week. Thank you everybody for being here. We got a bunch of different headlines. August 24th, 4 PM, the stock market, let me make sure the bell settings are good. Okay, the bell settings should be good. Is now closed.

13:02 I think that's a good bell. I think that should be a good bell. Bullish bell. Okay, cool. We got the bell. That's back. Nvidia ends the day down about 2.9% as that goes red. Bloom Energy, that's up 1.2. Google, that was up 1%. Rocket Lab was down 6% on the day. Irwin, if you're in the chat, it's time for you to send another email to the White House. Irwin sent an email around this time when it was at this range about the short interest in Rock Lab and how the SEC needs to investigate it. And then we pumped to 85. So, I think that email needs to be sent again. Micron was down 6%. Sandis was down 6.45%. I think the reason the memory stocks were down and we'll talk more about it was this Apple procuring chips from China news. I know this is such an old headline, but the fact that it was repurposed this morning with some level of seriousness towards it as Lutnik and the Commerce Department is going to make a decision in the next couple of weeks on if they're actually going to allow Apple. I think everyone thinks they're not going to allow them, but then again, who knows what if they do allow them. I mean, like, yeah, it's more supply flooding the market, less pricing power for Sandis, Micron, Western Digital, all those guys.

14:02 I think that's why those stocks ended up taking a hit. But, if it ends up becoming a nothing burger, then, you know, hopefully we see those rebound off this headline. Nebas was down 3.79% on the day. Ethereum just below 2500. BMR was up 5.7%. At one point, it was up almost 10%. Zeta right there, that was down 2%. Amcore was down 4%. Microgy was up 2.8%. Palanteer fell all the way to 171, then rebounded to 178, now at 175.

14:26 bunch of the software names still took a little bit of a beating. Circle also flat even with Bitcoin making its move. IGV down about 1%, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google. Those were the names that were up. I mean, the only Mac 7 that was really down today was Tesla and Nvidia if I'm not wrong. Tesla down about 4%, Nvida down 3%. I believe Apple was green. Apple was indeed green, up.32%. Actually, the stocks that hit 52 week highs, let me list them off right here today, which I think was very telling of the type of market environment we had today. Okay, these are the stocks that hit all-time highs.

14:59 or sorry, 52- week highs. FCX, Copper Miner, Coca-Cola, Charles Schwab, Target, Visa, Airbnb, Oscar, Dexcom, CarMax, Global Payments, Five Below, Expedia, Tenant Healthcare. I mean, you're talking about companies that aren't the most exciting when it comes to an earnings or tech perspective. but, you know, they're safe. Apple, Verizon, Coca-Cola, Verizon at 50 bucks today again. I mean, and the na the day that the semiconductor high beta names go down six, seven%. You see those names definitely get a rally. So, it was definitely one of those growth to value rotation type of days. I don't know if it's going to last until the end of the week. Obviously, we got Kevin Washington video to kind of see how that plays out.

15:38 But, with all the crazy headlines that we had today around Trump and Canada and this and that, Trump also had a live stream where he was talking about the education plan that we'll take a look at. obviously there were enough headlines for the market to be to be a bit upset and that's kind of what was manifested throughout the rest of the day. Then you had Trump put out this tweet. So we had a few tweets in the morning from Trump around Iran or sorry around Canada and then he continued to talk about Canada. Lots of bluster from Doug Ford who is the premier of the Canadian province of Ontario but who is better known as less charismatic, intelligent and overall unimpressive brother of the late great Rob Ford. America has been carrying Canada for decades, but no longer the USA will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada. Without the United States, Canada wouldn't survive.

16:24 It's where they get all of their money, and because of their current bad leadership, primarily Governor Carney and its flunky Ford. They will not be allowed to keep taking advantage of the United States. The key to survival. Remember, much of the electricity, oil, and gas that Canada gets is transported through the USA. Someone should get these clowns to fall in line or the consequences for Canada will be far worse. Canada's unemployment rate is now 10% and rapidly rising. their businesses are fleeing for the United States and it's all because of their failed policies and inept leadership these days of ripping off our farmers and other businesses are over. Thank you for your attention to this manner. So you've obviously got Trump going after Carney today. He's not happy with Canada and you know this is what Carney had to say in response to that. This fall, we will begin intense discussions with the European Union, the world's second largest economy, to build a much stronger and deeper economic and security partnership. Now, we can build such unparalleled access because we're trusted, because we're reliable, and because we have what the world wants.

17:29 So the response from Carney was hey we will work with our other allies other than the United States because they trust us you know economically I don't think they do a tenth of the business that they do with the United States that they do with Europe but I think both sides are going to try to hold their own and make sense of how they can better contribute to gain leverage in these negotiations than Bent was asked about it and here's what he said about Canada.

17:53 >> does the United States and President Trump still want Canada to become a state? He did say that they're getting all the benefits of being a state without being one. >> I think he would like Canada to come to the table and negotiate in good faith. They were offered quite a good deal last week. they chose to reject it. Unfortunately, Prime Minister Carney Carney rose to power on an anti-American, anti-Trump platform. I believe is more than 20 points behind.

18:25 And you know, he seems to have gone back to his old playbook. And I think one has to act ask oneself, is he trying to benefit himself, the Liberal Party, or the Canadian people? Because they were offered a very good job. So that's what you got from Bessant. Put in the chat, what are people thinking? What are people thinking with everything that we've had today? To recap, you've got the United States and Canada fighting and we'll go through some of the other headlines. We got you got Nvidia earnings, the market being upset about these Nvidia price hikes, I think is part of the reason why Nvidia is down today. Pelosi buying Bloom and Intel, Trump saying that Canada is basically gone without the United States. the 10-year not budging even after the other big announcement which I you know didn't talk about on the market close because we spent a lot of time in the market open talking about it but the scent essentially claiming that the the US Treasury is ready to spend a trillion dollars on buybacks of these bonds and still these yields are not coming down.

19:24 I mean, at some point, like it's just looking like nothing's working here and maybe we need some more time. but on a week where we have Nvidia earnings and Kevin Worsh speaking, you know, it feels like there's not enough time to necessarily figure all this out. It feels like the market is topping here. Well, you know, there there's a lot of Here's the thing. That Anthropic IPO, which by the way, Anthropic also started going a bit viral today.

19:54 Axios reported that Anthropic is it's kind of funny to be honest. Anthropic is asking prospective employees and culture interviews how they would feel if the stock hypothetically went to zero due to a significant change in course. I think anthropic theoretically if that sucks liquidity out of the market that could be more of a market top versus just like some of the geopolitical stuff because I I do think that will be resolved but you know liquidity crunches is what really tops out the market which is what we saw during the SpaceX IPO back in June as well had a lot of leverage and exuberance and maybe we see if that happens with Enthropic. You know, you got a bunch of Anthropic employees under this saying, "We've always asked these questions. This is not new news." That's fine. but nonetheless, I mean, you also have a lot of people saying, "Look at the salaries that Enthropic offers." Like, this is not one of those companies that's trying to cap salaries and have people join for the mission. This is obviously a company that is incentivizing very heavily through monetization. And, you know, maybe they're a little bit worried that, hey, the entire premise of a lot of people joining this company was that the stock was go up. we're going to go public at two trillion. Maybe the stock's going to be a bit volatile when it goes public and these employees don't get all the liquidity that they were promised. And quite frankly, I don't understand how the stock is not going to be ridiculously volatile. It's going to be at the heart of the AI theme. Multi-t trillion dollar company, not profitable, maybe gap profitable.

21:16 We're going to see when we get the S1, but I think it's going to be trading with Bloom and Intel and Nebus and all those names. I would imagine volatility would be the nature of how this plays out. Nebas right there 212 up a little bit right here after hours. Oil still slightly down on the day as well, but up from the lows. It went to 83 and now it's back at this 85 level. Put in the chat what you bought today or sold. Again, I just bought 100 shares of Intel. That's it. I was thinking of selling puts on Rocket Lab. I ultimately didn't. I kind of think when it gets to that 62 63 range like it is a couple dollars away from its bottom which is around 57 that it bounced off two times this year. So, I feel like that's a decent candidate for selling puts, but if SpaceX collapses, you know, who knows what we see on Rock Lab. Rob says, "I bought treasuries." Dude, I need to go to Bank of America and be like, "Take all of my money and put it into the 10-year Treasury note and get these damn yields to come down."

22:25 And then the bank teller is going to be like, "Sir, you have $45.37 in your bank account." AND I'M LIKE, "I DON'T CARE. Take all $45.37 and buy this damn tenure and let's get these yields down. It is time. It is time. I see Cororeweave. I see SKH Highix. I see Intel. I see a few Nvidas right here. Nvidia below 210.

22:55 I see some SOXL. All right. Some 3x leverage semis. I see MT said sold $60 puts on Rock Lab. Yeah, I mean I don't think today was a horrible day to buy, but obviously if we're in more of a process of consolidation and the risk is the downside with Nvidia earnings, then you know there can be some uglier price action. I'm seeing next decade. Next decade right there that's up 3% and that went up as oil and the broader energy market. Let's actually look at the heat map today. See what was red because it definitely wasn't everything. Yeah, look at this dude. It was literally semis and some parts of tech. Everything else was green.

23:34 Almost everything else. Healthcare was up. Consumer defensives. Walmart getting a little bit rebound. Visa, Mastercard hit all-time highs. I think both, right? I think Mastercard hit a Yeah, all-time high today after falling from the all-time high a few months ago. And then Visa, I believe, also hit an all-time high. Yeah, alltime high today. So, Acman bought both of those in Q2. So, you're seeing some of the bigger guys buy a lot more of these stable companies that did not get a lot of the hype this entire year because of the semis, but those are getting a bit of a rebound. Celsius was that up on the day. Celsius was up 5%.

24:10 Okay, nice little day for Celsius. I know they had a crappy earnings or at least an earnings that didn't live up to expectations, but that rockstar activist founder kind of coming in and changing a little bit of the sentiment along with Pepsi being up was not that bad. Why was Hood down? You know, Hood again, it's not one to one with crypto, but given Bitcoin kind of topped out around 799, that was going to be the top for Hood on a day like today, and that's why it fell 4%. still up a lot from three weeks ago when it was like stuck at 90 bucks. But obviously if if Bitcoin's going to consolidate then you know that upwards momentum and pressure is not going to be going into hood. Oh wait, that's kind of crazy.

24:50 Cactus, if you can get me more updates on that, that's a relatively big story. What is this? SEC subpoena situational awareness. SEC subpoenas banks about situational awareness. So, they're not they're not subpoening situational awareness. They're subpoenaing a bank or all the banks are it looks like the SEC might be ready to investigate this whole Citadel situation, which would be nice cuz felt like it was a little bit of manipulation involved. By the way, TTD just did a shelf offering. Why not? TTD down another 3%. Goodness gracious, this company.

25:36 We don't even have an an amount that the shelf offering is for. Basically, this is another form of dilution. The fact that that they're diluting at 5-year lows is a little ugly, but I wonder what banks are going to get subpoenaed here. SEC investigating near implosion of AI hedge fund. Regulators send subpoenas to major Wall Street banks seeking information about the trading of situational awareness. three pre people briefed on the outreach set. You know, technically this doesn't mean anyone's going to get in trouble. This is more so like the SEC trying to figure out how did this happen and how do we make sure this doesn't happen again.

26:12 and I can tell the SEC how it happened. People had too much leverage and then Ken Griffin made everybody scared about a rate hike. I mean, it's not that complicated. And then Leopold got too close to the sun. Like, it's it's actually kind of simple on how it happened. It's a it's a story that's happened many times. It's just you have the added effect of Citadel being a bit more aggressive in making this happen. But we're going to see if there's any Yeah, it's a film in the making, right? There's got to be some type of documentary on this. And we're going to see if the broader market figures out how this story played out and how the story might continue to play out going into the coming years. By the way, speaking of Citadel, they put out a note today at TTD 8year lows and diluting. It's kind of crazy. Citadel Securities is warning that Treasury Secretary Scott Asent expanded bond buyback could backfire, weakening the dollar and adding to inflation by artificially suppressing long-term yields. The firm says buybacks don't fix the real problem of high deficits and inflationary pressure, arguing tighter fiscal policy and monetary pol higher rates are needed instead, which is honestly, you know, I mean, I kind of think the analysis of hey, the Sent saying we're going to buy back bonds a and that having some type of meaningful impact on the credit markets. I mean, that's right. like he's not the Fed, he's not, you know, he's not worse, he's not printing money. He's just artificially putting some money from here to there to try to create confidence. What creates confidence is inflation coming down. And now if we're going to tariff Canada and have oil continue to be in the 80s, like you're not going to have inflation come down.

27:39 It's just And then you have memory inflation with the AI story. Like you have too many structural elements of inflation. One of those that could be resolved tomorrow if we end this Iran war that I don't think the Treasury bond buybacks are really going to do anything about. And I think that's the broader issue that we're seeing right here. ESTs that was down 9% today. A lot of the space names ended up taking a hit that was at a significant premium of a hit versus versus what's his name? SpaceX. Even Lunar fell about 10% on the day. Redwire was that probably down. Redwire was down 5%. Yeah, the space names actually got hit way worse than SpaceX, which was down about 1.4% on the day.

28:25 This is kind of crazy. Griffin will pay a $1,000 fine. Yeah, I mean, honestly, I I I don't Look, the SEC should do this because they're going to try to figure out if there was any illegal activity so they can put a fine. the SEC. Dude, some of the stats about the fines that the SEC collects are kind of crazy. I mean, these guys live off trying to figure out how do we collect more fines. it's about a few billion every year they get in fines. And, you know, no one wants to fight the SEC, so they end up just paying the fines. Elon has had plenty of experience with this, but that might be part of the reason that they're doing it. The subpoenas sought trade timing information and lender communications about borrowed capital. According to people briefed on the outreach, the fund has not been accused of wrongdoing and an inquiry is an early stage and might not result in penalties.

29:10 Regulators are reportedly gathering bank records following a high-profile leverage AI trading collapse, not announcing a case against the fund. Bank of America City, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan declined to comment. Okay, that's what we have from Citadel here. Other stories today that were relatively important. So, first of all, a couple of macro things. well, before we get to that real quick, Peter Beck did a new interview. Here's what he had to say about the neutron delay, which is part of the reason the stock took a hit after earnings. Neutron delays are always, you know, a question that that that always and rightly so. People should be should be riding as hard for that. But at the end of the day, I'm not going to say it doesn't matter, but you know, how how late was Electron to the market.

30:01 >> I don't know. Nobody knows because it doesn't matter. it was late, too. But >> that's true. I I genuinely don't know how late that was either. the the the point being is like the most important thing here is is like what happens in the next 5 to 10 years because that that is that is like that is where we we go from where we are today to being really really big and you know making sure all of the pieces of the puzzle are lined up, all the pieces of chess and the chessboard are in the right place is super important.

30:30 And that's why, you know, as we started acquiring these component companies for satellites, it's like each piece of, you know, each chess piece on the board to make sure that when it came time to do something like Aridium or or more, we're ready to go. Neutron delays are. >> So, that's what you got with Rocket Lab. I think obviously the street punished it for that delay after earnings, even though it still looks like 2027 it will be out there, but you know, if you're a long-term investor in Rocket Lab, that can't be the story. That could be the story for the day, but it's not the story for the long-term trajectory on if you're bullish on Rock Lab. All right, a couple other headlines. So, HIMS, I found out why they're down today. Apparently, they were placed in Visa's acquirer monitor monitoring program following an increase in weight loss subscription disputes. So there's either too much churn happening or people are cancelling the service too much and they're you know canceling the the service from accessing their credit card or they're having a call back on their card. And the way I interpret this is like unhappy customers that are not necessarily getting what they wanted out of HIMS and Visa and Mastercard are like upset about this because that's creating more difficulty for on their side and that's you know the report that came out that got hims to get hit. Yeah. asking essentially for more refounds so or refunds. So I think that's what you're seeing on Hams. Now HMS is heavily shorted as well. So the level of short float here is also accelerating as it's now I think closing in on almost 40%. It went below 40%.

32:00 Where are we at right now? We're at 30. All right. So we we are this is as of July 31st. We'll see what happens when we get the new reporting in a couple days. But if that's closing in on 35 36 which I would imagine it probably went up versus down over the past month given the price action then you know the shorts are still having a field day with this company and that's still happening with him in terms of Bitcoin. So we are seeing more people get excited about BTC call options exceeded a million contracts in each of the last three trading sessions on IBIT from Wednesday to Friday. This is the Black Rockck Bitcoin ETF. The call skew is also really important here because it measures the relative cost of upside versus downside options. So this sharp increase means investors are increasingly willing to pay for upside exposure. You're seeing a lot of leverage on perpetual futures contracts on Bitcoin as well. But in terms of the equity markets where they're where pers aren't available, you're just seeing more people buy calls and you had 1.58 million contracts on Wednesday. At the same time that crypto is coming back and you're seeing some of that attention come back to BTC. we got some hedge fund data of last week and it's a bit more on the side of selling. So this is from Goldman Sachs. Hedge funds sold their largest weekly amount of equities last week since the since the week of liberation day in April 2025 which is kind of crazy and kind of not when you think about that. Why is it crazy?

33:22 Because the stock market was down 30% the week of liberation day and it obviously you know hedge funds sold, retail bought. That was kind of the story of 2025 and that's why retail outperformed so aggressively. But the tenure was at the exact same rate that it was at during this week of April of 2025 when these hedge funds sold aggressively into into the liberation day. So it's almost like the hedge funds are not even paying attention to the stock market. They're paying attention to the credit market potentially and saying we are taking some profits right here because we think something could happen. This was a sharp reversal after three consecutive weeks of purchases.

33:54 Single stocks accounted for about 53% of the total sales, one of the highest readings over the last year. And nine of 11 sectors were sold, led by IT, information technology, industrials, utilities, healthcare and materials. Only energy and to a lesser extent consumer discretionary, your ELF, your Netflix, your Airbnb, your estee obviously Exxon, your Chevron. Those were the stocks which are up today. Those are the stocks that were up last week. They're the ones that got inflows.

34:16 They were some of the only sectors that got inflows. So again, the hedge fund data week to week is not something to pay that much attention to and put that much emphasis on. But the point is the fact that it was as aggressive as it was since the week of April 2025 is a little weird. And I like nothing happened last week that was that dramatic. So I'm just like, okay, why is this happening? And I go back to the credit market where hedge funds are like, you know what, we're just not going to own risk assets right now at the level of exposure that we've owned them, even though the earning story is great.

34:49 until these bond yields end up coming down or maybe they're selling to buy more crypto. I mean that could be happening as well. We have an insider buy on Kors Core Scientific. This was also a situational awareness stock down 3%. you have a director who bought $110,000 of it at $18.33 as that that was just disclosed. Nvidia also was red today for the seventh day in a row. It's the longest losing streak on Nvidia since 2022.

35:24 It's been a while since Nvidia has gone this red, but nonetheless, that's what we're seeing. Here is what Mr. Dan I've said about the price increases that Nvidia put out today. >> Demand the supply for chips is upwards of 15 to1. And I think that's that's what not just Nvidia, but ultimately their end users. >> Who needs to eat the higher costs right now? Who's eating it? Now through the supply chain you'll see some of that eaten but then ultimately it's the end user it's the customers it's enterprises it's tokenization as that all plays out then the question will be okay when do you hit some sort of equilibrium I mean we don't think you hit core equilibrium probably till middle to late 2028 and I think that right now is a quagmire whether it's Nvidia whether it's the memory players micron everyone else because the hyperscalers you just like As Lisa talked like as they'll continue to raise capital and capbacks will continue to increase, the AI revolution still in the third inning. I think you'll hear that more from Nvidia later this week. Then it comes down to like memory and Apple obviously seen that front and center. Those costs are going to continue to go up.

36:31 >> They're going to look for other costs to go down though. And I was looking, for example, at the story over the weekend of Nvidia potentially telling some of its customers like Microsoft and Alphabet and Oracle that their costs are going to go up about 15% tied to data centers because of the memory chip and how much the price is going up. And you start wondering, is this part of the reason why they're cutting back on Frontier models? Is this part of the reason why they're looking for efficiencies from say open-sourced AI models coming from China?

36:56 >> Yeah. And that's why when you look at Apple and they looked at chips potentially from China because they're looking across the board and say okay where do we cut cost because on one side of the ledger costs are going up but it speaks to our view that you you until you really hit scale costs are going to continue to go higher. I think with the hyperscalers and with the chip players and from Nvidia what everyone's dealing with is you cannot take the foot off the gas right now because of the demand cycle and to your point when it comes to like the debt raises despite what we're see that's going to accelerate. I mean you talked about it going to 220 you go to next year it's probably double from that you know in terms of as it's going to continue to increase given the capex that's needed in terms of what I'll view it is building it >> did you guys see this am I seeing it for the first time Nebius increases the size of their convertible offering to 5.75 billion did that come out in the morning but I'm just seeing that right now so it went from four billion to five billion to now 5.75 five which means it seems like they're seeing a ton of demand for these senior nodes but that is now upgraded to almost six billion 5.75 billion for Nebulas >> building Vegas strip 1955 type move moment >> I was looking at Nvidia's earnings and just the the returns that you've seen in their shares so far this year their shares are up 15% last year they were up 38% the year before they were up more than 100% the year before up more than 200%. It's been a rapid deceleration in the equity returns as multiples have gone higher and higher. At what point have they just reached a pinnacle of what multiples can look like and even if they deliver amazing results they're not going to get that kind of pop in the stock?

38:38 >> I think that's the debate but then to some extent DVO almost funded the AI party if you think about the memory play. Look think about Korea Cosby is not where it is without Nvidia. You know there is only one chip in the world fueling the AI revolution that is Nvidia. And I think the point here is that as you see with numbers as it plays out, there's no one that has a better perch than them. And that's why I think you'll hear from Jensen because the question is is it as enterprise accelerate and we think accelerating probably 20 25% even over the last few months as that runs through the system.

39:15 It's investors ultimately recognizing that because I still it's my view investors are still underestimating the scale and scope of the AI revolution. Now it goes back to like the bond market. You're going to need to take out more debt and then where is there a patience sort of a tugof-war that goes on but from a demand perspective it's accelerated not decelerating. earnings look great. >> And obviously that demand is very very important to continue. But once again, these broader macro boring things like bond yields are kind of, you know, causing a a lack of focus on the earning story, on the demand story. And it goes back to, okay, if these yields are going to be this high and we're going to have bonds from corporations compete with it, you know, at what point does this get a bit under control? By the way, you got a new company getting ready to go public, Agrico. Does anyone know this company? I'm seeing them right now for the first time. AG KO will be the ticker. They provide temporary mobile generation heating, cooling, and energy services. supplies rental generators and complete power services for primary supplemental or energy use. Delivers industrial chillers, cooling towels, heaters. Provides battery en battery energy storage systems and load banks for testing electrical infrastructure.

40:28 This company did 3.4 billion in 2025, up 20% year-over-year. Ibida is 1.3 billion. Operating income 694 million. Their data center business was about 11% of total revenue. I mean it's a hot time to be an energy company and go public when that is perceived as the bottleneck. So this is interesting. It'll definitely be one we should look at. obviously valuation will be important, but if it's a three billion in revenue company, I would imagine they're going for at least 25 to 30 billion market cap, maybe more.

41:04 but that's what you're seeing right here. It's Bloom Energy 2.0. Is it? Dude, Bloom is special with what they've been able to do. That's why it trades at the multiple trades at this one could even get some of that excitement that Bloom has. It might be a really good IPO. Nvidia right there. That's down. 2% after hours. Can we deep dive on this? Yeah, once we get the S1. Dude, we need the S1's for all these companies that are going public. We haven't really had a good AI company besides SpaceX go public this year, right? I mean, I guess Cerebrus, but like to me, Cerebrus was just the VC dump. Like, we need something that's a little more unknown that the VCs aren't salivating to dump shares on. And, you know, something that's going to play a part in this AI revolution, but it's not the most hyped up thing in the world. Maybe Agrico is one of those companies. Now, granted, only 11% of the revenue is data centers, but that was 2025. Maybe that's accelerated meaningfully.

41:55 but outside of that, it's been SpaceX and Cerebrus, right? That's it that we've seen. They're big in oil and gas as well. All right. Map money will probably help us and Steve because they understand that industry when these things go public. ELF that was up 4% of the day up a little bit more after hours as well. okay. Some of the other headlines that we had, we talked about the hedge funds selling. We talked about Rocket Lab. oh yeah, this happened today. So Trump has been going back and forth with Canada. The Ontario premier Doug Ford had this to say about Trump.

42:37 >> Just wondering, you sound a little more subdued than you did this morning on the radio when you said Donald Trump could kiss your ass. Did the prime minister tell you to ask you to tone it down a bit? >> No, he didn't. I'm not going to comment, but he wasn't against that. And I have a lot of real estate on my ass. So, he has a lot of room to kiss my ass. So, >> I just do. I'm a big dude. What can I say?

43:04 >> This came out a few hours ago. I saw it near the end of the day. I think that's when Trump tweeted what he tweeted about Doug Ford and Canada's useless without the United States. So, I I think Trump seeing that clip probably got him a bit upset and that's when he tweeted what he tweeted. You know what? We got to light this candle, folks. We still haven't lit this candle. It's fall time, baby. Pumpkin cupcake.

43:32 Okay, now that I say it, it sounds a little little zesty, but nonetheless, pumpkin cupcake. Got to have this studio smelling nice in the face of The ugly red. Dude, I'm actually so excited for the fall. Like, the summer's cool, but the fall. The fall is the best. The fall is the best, baby. There you go. That is what we've got.

44:03 I didn't know it said pumpkin cupcake. I thought it just said pumpkin. Now I'm reading it. I'm like, okay, pumpkin cupcake is a little little crazy. But it smells good. That's what matters. Bay Ray says, "I hope it burns down your studio." That's not nice. That is not nice. Mr. Bay Ray, >> did you get new headphones? Yes. This is how I got the candle. It was sitting right near the headphones. I was like, "Hold on. $5 for this candle. Kind of feels like a steal here."

44:30 And so I had to get it with the with the AirPods. Here is what one of the analysts from Raymond James had to say about the 15% hike. As we get into Nvidia earnings as well, >> there really should be very little surprise. As a matter of fact, given the percentage increase in the cost of memory and the amount of memory required in these AI platforms, 15% really doesn't seem all that demanding when we consider the amount of spending.

44:58 >> Each Blackwell and Reuben GPU has eight corresponding HBM stacks, which in turn are 12 layers of of DRAM, >> 15%. Could you see that going higher, Simon, with that in mind? Well, I think it's possible. the the challenge is is we don't know what Nvidia built into the prior pricing. So, there's a lot we don't know at this point. Recall that that Jen Sinwang has said repeatedly that they predicted that the amount of memory they'd need two years ago. So, they've been working on locking in supply. They've formed these long-term agreements with the multiple suppliers of memory. So there's a significant amount of detail we simply don't know. The other factor you have to consider here is the published prices may go up by 15%. But that doesn't mean contracted prices are reflecting that same amount. I think the market still didn't love this announcement because even though it's good for Nvidia, the problem is Nvidia is expected, I mean, I was reading some of the updates today and we'll take a a look at this preview, but Nvidia's gross margin is actually expected to come down just a little bit from 75% to like 73.7. If that is the case, you know, yeah, this price hike is is is them maintaining their margin, but it's also pressure on Nvidia because the memory prices are up, which is pressure on the hyperscalers that have to deal with lack of pricing power they have on chips. Now, capex can afford this, but does the market think that these margins are sustainable or that these prices make any sense in the context of the amount of capex that is that is being spent?

46:34 >> Move the stock, which is maybe why they're not getting in. Dan mentioned it. The numbers at this point really aren't the story. Beat soon across the board. We know that demand surging, lead times have stretched from 6 weeks a quarter ago to nearly 40. Now Wall Street actually wants is specifically in the guide. The first real read on how fast the new Reuben chips are ramping the next iteration. Then there's also the margins. Nvidia told customers it's raising AI server prices as much as 17%.

46:59 It's reported that driven by soaring memory cost. >> Okay, so Q3 74.8. So the question is just going to be can they stay around that 75% range. They were below 70 a year ago but that was because they guided for it and then they came back up to 75. As long as they you know kind of hold those levels I don't think Wall Street's going to punish them. as long as they you know continue to beat and raise and bear Ruben guidance looks like nice going into 2027.

47:24 >> The question is whether that protects its mid70s gross margins you can see on your screen which is estimated to decline in Q3 maybe even more or if memory still eats into it. Watch too also for the Vera CPU a new multi-billion dollar line as AI agents take off. And then to your last point all of you on the panel hanging over it is the circular financing debate. Nvidia is bankrolling the same customers who buys the chips like it's up to $15 billion back stop for an open AI data center in Ohio. That's just one example.

47:51 The question Wall Street will want answered is how much of Nvidia's own balance sheet is on the line. No doubt they have a lot of free cash flow to deploy investing like a VC across the board from poolside reflection AI etc. But the big question is you know how much of that is going into the to these investments as opposed to you know shareholders who maybe at this point want to buy back. Do you have any indication or or feel maybe in in how Nvidia is thinking about the the data center issue and the political backlash that's happening in various parts of this country that some suggest is only going to get worse? what are you hearing if anything on on that very issue which you could potentially say is the cause of the weakness in the stock most recently >> that and also the circular financing just because it has to fund a lot of these firms and help these firms get financing that maybe otherwise wouldn't because of their investment grades. So I just wonder too like how much that weighs onto it. But in terms of Nvidia, that's the reason why they're so keen on investing in the entire portion of the data center, not only just for the data center build, but the software, the openweight models with that poolside deal. So they are fully aware. I think everybody is aware that when you make a promise to build a data center, that promise is most likely going to be pushed back by, you know, whatever amount of months and years because of political blackshot, nimi, not in my backyard, etc. And so the only way that they can prepare for that is to ensure that they get demand from all facets of the globe. And so that $500 billion financing deal that we first recorded here on CNBC is an example of that.

49:31 They're helping the smaller players, the the smaller AI labs, you know, get access to their chips because they don't want to rely solely on the hyperscalers who may, you know, face backlash with the buildout. >> The elephant in the room and again I agree the guidance thing is stupid like or the margin thing is stupid. The guidance is really all that matters and we know they're going to blow it out of the park with the headline numbers as long as that guide is stable on the margins and on topline revenue growth. I mean, Nvidia is going to be fine and this price action really is more a function of headline volatility than fundamentals. But but but the elephant in the room is that the 500 billion that Nvidia is spreading out to all these AI labs to buy their chips exclusively to buy Nvidia chips. I think the street's going to need a really sophisticated explanation from Jensen on why this is not circular.

50:18 And why if he's giving chips to Sharon AI or Nebius or Iran or any of these other smaller companies, why them buying his chips first taking his money or Goldman Sachs's money or whoever's money to buy his chips to then resell them will generate an ROI that is practical for those business models and ultimately is more broadly important and sustainable for the broader AI ecosystem. But I think Jensen really this earnings is just going to be about him explaining how the flow of money like he's going to have to turn into a economist here explaining a lot of this stuff I think for the street to be a bit more excited. I mean everyone knows Nvidia has great numbers and earnings and AI is important and open source and closed source models are bullish for semiconductors but the the flow of money how the money gets from one place to another. How this partnership with SKH highix is going to result in you know the boom bus cycle not being that aggressive for these memory companies like I think a lot of the work on the call is going to be about calming down those types of fears. The numbers have to be good in the first place to get the algos to react positively and then Jensen just has to effectively communicate and you know I expect no less from Jensen because he knows how to communicate very well.

51:25 But, you know, on the surface level, when he says, "Well, these companies are going to take their money. They're going to buy our chips and, you know, we're gonna record those as purchase orders on our side, and we're also backstopping some of the loans." Like, it obviously sounds circular. There there's no way you get around that. And I think they're just going to have to do a good job making sure it doesn't sound like it's a bubble because that's going to be the question. And again, if you think there's an ROI, it's not a bubble. If you don't think there's an ROI, it might be. And I think that's going to be the broader Jensen argument going into Turnics.

51:59 Bitcoin getting any love right here. BTC trying to get back to 79 getting a little bit of a move from 7850. So you're seeing about a $400 move right there. Broadcom, this one also got downgraded by UBS today or at least their revenue guidance got downgraded by about 5 billion 35876 as that one is flat. Will Core Weave and Nebius pump or dump? I think Nvidia earnings will kind of determine the fate of pretty much every semiconductor stock and so I mean honestly it's going to be up to Nvidia but Iran the day after will also be really important I think for some of these other NEO clouds. Ethereum also getting a little bit of love right here just below 2500 but still you know up nicely on the day.

52:46 Then you had Bent say this. He's expecting a major announcement for a financial institution that's going to get sanctioned this week. We have no idea who this institution is, but he says the United States is ready to basically go after them. >> From New York Post, >> the United Arab Emirates is among some of the first nations to take seriously these words from the United States to cut off all business interactions with Iran. Is UAA leading the way in this respect?

53:19 >> I I I would think that the actions that they took last week were not coincident but likely causal and I would expect that we would see a broad array of countries taking similar actions that as we continue our engagement. the the UAE have been very good partners and have taken the brunt of the Iranian attacks in the Gulf. And what have what have these countries gotten over the years from appeasing Iran? They were subject to violent attacks. While we were bombing Iran, they were bombing them. So it shows that with with this regime appeasement does not work. And on the other side with this regime trying to buy appeasement will no longer work in the eyes of the United States of America. And I want to emphasize that we are spreading out across the world as we speak. That you will see a wave of sanctions when you leave this meeting today. And you should expect that cadence to continue and I would expect that you will see a major announcement of a financial institution being sanctioned by the end of this week. So >> does anyone have a guess on what that financial institution would be? By the way, the Vistra CEO, we've talked about the stock over the past couple days, just bought 2,000 shares of his own company. It's nice to see you're seeing the big guys and the insiders now buy stock that was just disclosed. 2,000 shares, 270,000 bucks for VST. Price was 135.

55:13 He bought it today. This is interesting, dude. The stock hasn't really moved this year and it's in the heart of this AI bottleneck. It's down 18% actually this year. revenue is not really growing, but I would imagine this data center thematic is what the street's excited about. No, I don't think it can be Bank of America or JP Morgan. The United States can't sanction one of our own banks. That's like a massive massive bank for the United States citizens. It would have to be some type of other financial institution that's like has a larger international presence and that has not been acting the right way in the eyes of the US government.

56:02 So, we're going to have to see. Revenue is growing because they did a buyout. All right. So, I need to look into this company because this one got a lot of buys during 13 apps. I will take a look at Vistro. I'll try to do some research on this one tonight. VST is the ticker. I mean, Peter Teal, you had what's his name? Gavin Baker. And then the CEO, which is important. HSBC, Canadian banks. Dude, if they do a Canadian bank, they might just do it to send a message, too.

56:36 And I don't really know how Canada would react if that happens, either. So, dude, it would be some news for SoFi. We haven't had any big news on SoFi in a while. It was funny during the ice coffee hour with Vlad. I don't know if they're sponsored by SoFi, Jack and Graham, but when Vlad said high yield savings account, they they threw SoFi's logo there, which was hilarious because SoFi gives you that 3.8%.

57:08 And yeah, that was kind of funny. But ultimately, we're going to have to see, you know, how much the market is willing to pay attention to these financial institutions. I mean, most of Canada's growth this year has been banks. It's been like Shopify and banks. So, if if it was a a Canadian bank that got sanctioned, I wonder how the stock market itself would react to that. Could it be Jane Street? No, it's not going to be a US institution.

57:41 It's going to be it's going to be something else. By the way, there's that. This is the clip of of ice coffee hour with Vlad and SoFi >> fund with the lower one. Of course, that's a that's a straightforward one. Or, you know, if you've got cash in a savings account earning 0% and there's this other account here that can get you north of three. Of course, the rational thing is to move all of that cash. There you go. That was SoFi.

58:15 So, threw in SoFi right there. Commodities have been moving. That is correct. Gold and silver. I don't know if this is the time to hop on the commodities train. I mean, what happens with commodities, and this is why I don't trade them because I don't know what the hell I'm doing, and I don't think a lot of people do, is people like buying commodities when they're going up. Like, the amount of silver experts that I saw an X in January that have been calling for the silver run, they all disappeared. All of them. Because guess what? When the price goes down, there's nothing to be an expert on anymore. Like, there's only like less than 0.3% of people that have been talking about silver since the 20s.

58:53 round about summer of 2024 that said the silver run is coming and it and then it came it just ended up collapsing by 50%. Same thing with gold. So just cuz price actions back I don't know if that necessarily means and I think it's a little bit different than crypto because crypto has been stuck all year and has had this like 400 day consolidation that it's breaking out of. Gold had its rally and it exploded in January. Same thing with silver. Same thing with copper to an extent. So what fundamentally changed outside of the Treasury buying back bonds that gets people that excited about the commodities?

59:26 Having said that, you know, you buy these things for the long term, they're probably going to appreciate. It's just is the play really selling AI and going into commodities. I don't know. Especially when a lot of that commodity demand is, you know, partly premised off the thesis that data centers need more silver and copper, which means, you know, the AI stocks would would benefit. Gold is getting a lot more demand though through these ETFs. I mean, we've talked about this over a variety of different stats. There was another one that came out today. So, GLD, the difference between call and put open interest hit 2.4 million, which is the highest since January. So, obviously, there's a lot more excitement. The gap has increased by about a million contracts since Japan's intervention to support the yen. This is also more than triple the 2021 2024 average of 800,000 contracts. similar spike up to about three million contracts was recorded in January when gold surpassed 5500 for the first time and then obviously it ended up taking a hit. But the level of macro uncertainty along with the credit markets like here's my thing about the commodity trade. What happens if the credit markets actually do calm down and the scent and the treasury and oil relaxes and you see those bond yields come down to four and a half% which would be you know 200 basis points below where it is right now. I wonder if gold, silver, and bitcoin don't really continue having the type of fund that they've had. Even though I think, you know, crypto is a bit more prime because it has other external catalysts. But what happens to to the broader commodities?

60:59 I think we're going to find out in the coming weeks, but I don't think it's going to take months to find out. I mean, if this thing is going on going into the midterms, which is kind of what it feels like because again, this whole economic pressure campaign is like, can this really solve anything before the midterms, we only have a couple months left. Like, if you told me in March this was going to last until the midterms, I would have not agreed.

61:21 And I'm sure there's some of you that thought this was never going to end. And I mean, so far you've been right. This is This is not really ending as long as the gold buys aren't on leverage. What about what's a what's the gold miner ETF? let's see how that's doing over the past couple months. Gold miner ETF, it's GDX. GDX in the past month, I would imagine it's outperforming gold.

61:56 37%. Year to date, it's up 20%. Okay, so around July 24th, GDX made the move. gold in the same time in the past month is up 14%. Okay, so the gold miners did a lot better. The Iraq war lasted for 20 years. Yeah. But I mean, how many people thought this was going to be like the Iraq war? Like I didn't like this was, you know, not after a 911 type of event. This was Trump announcing we're going in to have regime change and liberate the people.

62:44 And I think he thought it would be like Venezuela and that's just not what happened. I still think there's a chance it'll be over by the end of this year, but at this point, who knows? At this point, who knows? Do you like Apploven? I think Apploven's got to really prove their TAM can expand going into this next earnings. You know, the crazy stat about Apploven, dude, it's value at the same multiple as Etsy, and it's growing way faster, way faster than Etsy. like way fat. Like the multiple, the fact that it's getting an Etsy level multiple is stupid. But the street is, you know, not forgiving with slowing down growth. Like if you're going to slow down growth, you need to tell the street you're going to slow down growth so they can digest it or you need to give a dividend, buybacks, etc.

63:32 If you're not going to do any of that and you're just going to naturally slow down, I mean, look what happened to Robin Hood in Q1. They grew 15% after growing 50%. That stock fell to basically 65 bucks. like you can't slow down growth without guiding for it or without having that be like a one-time thing and love and it's been all year even though the growth is still 50% which is obviously still pretty good but I think this one will require the next earnings to see what happens 50% of Nvidia employees now have a net worth exceeding 25 million I think I saw this stat the other Okay.

64:13 Yeah. I mean, look, if you've been an Nvidia employee for a long time. Yeah. 50%. Yeah. Yeah. I'm seeing it right here. $25 million, dude. That's a lot of money. Roughly 80% of their employees are now millionaires as well. I mean, the problem is everyone's bought this stock after it's, you know, basically achieved two, three trillion in market cap, and it's up nicely from then, but now everyone's expecting it to get to 10 trillion. Disney offers executives voluntary early retirement packages amid overall cost cutting plans. Oh, wow. Disney looks like they're trying to speed up some of these layoffs. The enhanced offer includes separation play, continued investing of existing equity awards, active employee healthcare rates, and retain Silver Pass theme park. Leadership previously flagged additional cost cuts to redirect resources into high growth priorities including content, technology, and experiences. Disney right there was up about 2% on the day.

65:21 The chief people officer noted that voluntary buyouts accompany involuntary staff reductions that began in select divisions and will continue into next year. I mean, Disney was one of the top 10 stocks that was bought in Q2 from a lot of the larger investors. So, people are expecting this thing to have a turnaround and at least get some of their financials under control. This was the coverage, by the way, on this subpoena for situational awareness.

65:53 apparently being set by the Security and Exchange Commission as it looks into exactly what transpired with the near calamity situation with situational awareness as well as Citadel stepping in to buy up some of those assets. We're going to get you some more details on that. We'll be back in a moment right here on Bloomberg. >> Yeah, this one's going to be interesting. This one's going to be interesting given how the lawsuit or given how the liquidation ended up happening. By the way, the Supreme Court just sided with Trump on his mail-in ballots. US Supreme Court lifts judicial decision that blocked in 23 states Trump's order restricting mail and ballots. Supreme Court sides with Trump for now on his mail and ballot curbs.

66:38 So, it looks like if Trump's going to want to force a ban on mail and ballots in some capacity into the midterms, that will also be up for play. Disney right there 110 after hours. I'm putting an application to be Nvidia's janitor right now. Dude, if the janitor took there's there you guys know that story, right, about the the person who made a mural. You guys probably know his name because he's famous. He made a mural for Meta in his in their first office in PaloAlto and they they didn't have cash so they paid him in stock and I think that stock ended up being worth like $300 million, $250 million. What's the guy's name?

67:17 He's like his like episode on Joe Rogan. David David Cho, right? Yeah. This dude's like super philosophical, but he he ended up getting rich off taking stock from Meta versus versus cash. Yeah, that's who he is. So maybe people at Nvidia do that to an extent as well. Why was Tesla down on the day? Honestly, I think that was just more high beta selling off. Let's look at the top stocks that had options today. Nvidia 3.4 million, Tesla 2.9, Apple Micron, Amazon were up there. Intel was also up there.

68:04 Google Micro Strategy, Microsoft, Microchip Technology. Interesting. Did that have news today? MCHP. Jason has talked about this one before. Year to date, it's up 14%. That was in your top 20. AMD PBR. I feel like I've heard of this before, but I don't know what this company does. It's a bank, right? No, Brazilian Petroleum multinational corporation up 56% this year. That's in your top 20. And then you have Hunter, Walmart, Sofi, Baba.

68:36 Oh, the Baba director bought like 10 million worth of stock today. But the reason Baba was down was because they are diluting to raise a lot more money to spend on capex. So you have a lot of insider buys which is bullish but you also have a ton more capex spend which I guess shortterm is bearish. The refinery. Okay. Interesting. A refinery or refiner making it into the top 20 in options today.

69:07 Have you guys even seen PBR like ever show up on the flow? Like 372,000 calls, 41,000 puts. Bit mine was the 20th with 245,000 options today. Do we buy Micron and market close? Now, I mean, look, that study outlined if you buy Micron and market close, sell it at market open. It works. It's just once again, you know, like who really does that every day? I'm going to buy it at the close, sell it at the open. I mean, you know, for some stocks, there is a general study that overnight markets, if you buy and sell right at the open, like there was a study we looked at a couple months ago, there's not that much liquidity in overnight markets and because the liquidity kind of rushes in at around 7 8 a.m., which is still the pre-market, that's when stocks get a little bit of a a jump and then you can sell. But it doesn't always work, right? So, you know, if Micron opens down below 900 tomorrow premarket, it's not going to be it's not going to be fun. Yeah, you can get an agent to do that now because you can program them to do a lot of this stuff.

70:16 Do you think we have a flat market till the end of the year? What do we think in the chat? Do we think we have a flat market towards the end of the year? Whether we have red candles or green candles, we will also have pumpkin candles. Okay, that's all that matters. That's really all that matters as we head into the latter half of the year. Red or green, it doesn't matter because we've got these pumpkin candles to help us get through it. Rally till after midterms.

70:51 I don't know. I mean, we still haven't even seen 8,000 yet, which I mean, it doesn't feel like it's inevitable, but it also doesn't feel like it's that hard to be able to see it. I mean, sentiment can switch so quickly. Honestly though, if we fall going into the midterms, it is the dip every time during a midterm year, especially if they hike. If they hike, it's going to be reminiscent of 2018, 2022 all over again. And they're probably, it's probably going to be like a hike to prove they can hike. And then they're probably going to get back to pausing, which once the market digests that, maybe we can move on.

71:29 But until then, we're going to have to see. No, pumpkin spice lattes are disgusting. Okay, the pumpkin candles are okay. The lattes, the only good latte that's out there is are caramel lattes because like if it's too sweet, it's just, you know, so when you have all these weird like spices and stuff into these lattes, they don't taste good. Never liked the pumpkin spice lattes. If they hike, everything is cooked. I think it'll be cooked in the short term, but I think eventually we'll be able to navigate it.

72:04 We're just going to have to see. Not saying 8,000 till 2027. I mean, how much are we still up on the S&P? It's up 13% this year. No, 11%. Yeah, because we went down 1.2 last last week. Bro removed ads just to promote the candle. Some of you guys still saw the ads, so I just don't know what to say anymore. Like, I don't know why YouTube's doing it this way, but I tried on my end to make sure that it's off.

72:40 Just say you don't have taste. I don't drink coffee in general that much, so I'm probably not a latte expert, but I would still think the caramel ones are better. do we have any other major headlines? Do we have anything else? Pakistani mediator has left Tran after conveying goodwill aimed at resolving the Iranian-American dispute. They were there this morning. Maybe they can help us out. Maybe not. 262 on Amazon as that was slightly green. I don't think they're going to hike. I don't think either. But then you look at these probabilities and it was at 32. Yeah. Look, it's at it's up 2% from this morning, dude. It was at 32% yesterday. Now it's at 40 or not yesterday, Friday. Now it's at 42.

73:25 And it's like I still don't think they will, but you know that that's relatively close to 5050, which means it's a coin toss at that point. And if it ends up being a hike, like I kind of want them to do it so we just get it over with. Like because the market's so scared of a hike. It's like what if they do it? we fall 2 3% it's going to be a ugly day and then we move on. We go back to earnings as the story but we're going to have to see. What's your take on Nvidia earnings this week?

73:50 Well, 70% of you said pump in the morning chat. I don't know, man. I I think Nvidia is going to crush it. I have no idea how the stock's going to react. It feels weird to even try to speculate how the stock's going to react because of how volatile it's been. But I think the earnings will be fine. I just I kind of like that it's dumping though. If we are like 204 205 into earnings, I would be happy. We can get a run to like 215 if it's a good earnings. But if we were like 230 going into earnings, I feel like it would be a much tougher situation. Yes, Wars speaks on Friday. I really don't think he's going to say much.

74:28 Like I honestly think it's going to be a nothing burger, but he does speak on Friday. Are there more calls or puts for Nvidia earnings? Let's see right now. I'm pretty sure it's calls, but Nvidia tends to be a bit more even. Okay, so we go to the option chain. So, it's this week. Oh, no. We're going for 31st, right? No, 28th. 28th is Friday. Open interest. 153,000 calls, 98,000 puts for just No, sorry, that that's today.

75:04 Sorry. This is for Friday. 585,000 calls, 294,000 puts. So definitely now those could be sold calls, not just bought calls, but the the option sellers have been winners on Invidia every every single quarter for like two years at this point versus option buyers. AMD was also down about 4% on the day.

75:34 >> >> amid chilling his hair means it's bullish for Nvidia. Honestly, I didn't do anything that different. Dude, sometimes my hair cooperates, sometimes it doesn't. Like today, it's cooperating and it's just like in play. There's no gel. There's nothing here. I mean, I I did go to the barber. They gave me a little bit of a fade as you guys can see. But outside of that, you know, it's nothing too crazy. Tomorrow we might wear a hat. just I got to get to the point where it actually stays in place and it like you know is reliable at this level. It was actually a new barber. I took his his information after because I I was like this is like I think I think it was new to the shop but I was like this is like really good to be honest compared to some of the other cuts I got just like how it felt afterwards. I was like okay this is like I want to see if he can he might be my my primary barber. By the way, this is what the head of the CFTC also said on this idea of AI compute becoming the new digital oil as they start to commoditize compute as an asset class.

76:38 >> If America is going to win the AI race, we have to dominate the compute markets. This is the most important commodity I think of our time. This is essentially a digital oil. Some have called it the gasoline of the technological revolution. We've got to have these markets here. We want the prices to be discovered for this valuable commodity in the United States, the benchmarks to be here, and we want it to trade here in markets where it's transparent, where we have kind of an open order book and all the things that have made our markets the best in the world. So, we're working very hard together with Secretary Lutnik and the Department of Commerce to set the standard here in the US. I don't want a bunch of, you know, bad products trading in the US. We want the best of the best and we're going to lead in these markets. And so we put out a a request for comments yesterday on this issue. We'll continue to build that regulatory framework so that we can win AI race if >> I mean he's serious about helping out the crypto futures market, establishing digital asset legislation.

77:34 obviously they're trying to enforce the Clarity Act even if Congress doesn't vote on it. And then you've got AI compute as a futures market that the CFTC wants to you know make sure becomes a reality. Like it feels like that is bullish for the broader industry, but it goes back to the credit markets being upset right now, which is why I think we've seen the volatility up and down. It is 53 plus 4 inches from the hair.

78:03 Exactly. That's how we get to that's how we get to 57. Do we have any other headlines today? I think that was pretty much it. Nothing else I saw that was that crazy. radio, thanks for the super chat. When I watch this room on my phone, I get no ads. When watching on Amazon TV, I see ads. Interesting. That's actually very interesting. So, maybe YouTube's doing a different distribution deal where the ads show up sometimes and they don't show up the other times. that goes into the Netflix headline we had today where Netflix is essentially becoming more like Roku, which I don't know if it's bullish or bearish. It's bullish because it's like obviously it's another monetization opportunity, but it's kind of Netflix admitting we don't have the content. Like if we have the content, we would not need to get people to buy Peacock and Fox and all these other competitors through our through our app. Like, you don't go to Netflix to find like Harry Potter and then subscribe through Netflix that takes a piece of the subscription because they're giving HBO Max a new subscriber. Like, you do that on Prime.

79:08 You do that on Paramount. You don't do that on Netflix. Netflix is supposed to have original content that Netflix pays for that services to Netflix users and it looks like that's changing. They don't have the content. They just don't. Doesn't mean the stock is crazy overvalued. It's obviously down 50%. But and I think it's probably bottomed at that 65 range, but it's a new era for how Netflix chooses to find growth. So, I think that was the main headline on Netflix. Oh, yeah. Sheen, we did have that headline. Sheen is by the way the Nebies thing I guess came out in the middle of the day but I didn't see it in the morning. So 5.75 billion is that new corporate offering. Sheen is the like embodiment of fast fashion which essentially is fashion that's you know clothes that are made in China. They pay people like I'm exaggerating but like a couple bucks an hour. They sell it for crazy margins.

80:02 but it's still cheap relative to other clothes. So they're expected to go public and raise about 1.8 paid billion. And this is a company that's had a ton of controversy and the dimminimous loophole that I believe the Trump administration ended at the start of 2025 which allowed them to ship a ton of product without having to pay taxes on the shipping fees. That was taken out, but that's getting ready to go public as Cactus reports that Aura Ring is expected to seek up to three billion in an IPO.

80:32 Maybe these IPOs do better than these AI companies. Smart Rings, Fast Fashion, the Unitary IPO did well, even though that's kind of AI because it's robotics. Also, Walmart came out with like a new discounted fashion program, I think, because Walmart's trying to compete with Sheen. but it's like to attract younger shoppers. Walmart is launching a new in-house women's brand called Scenario aimed at younger shoppers looking for more trend focused apparel. Most items will be priced under $25. The launch comes as Walmart's clothing accessory sales have grown for seven straight quarters with the company gaining share from department stores shares stores and specialty apparel retailers.

81:11 Does anyone wear the Aura ring? I had one, but I lost it. And Apple still charges me every month for that $6 subscription. And every time I see that charge, I'm like, where is this stupid ring so I can wear it and get my sleep score? I literally just need to take the time to find it. I know it's in the house somewhere around here. Do Don't they all sell the ring? Why aren't they going public? Well, I think at this point they're seeing there's a lot of opportunity for liquidity and you know, it makes sense for them to go public, but the AI names are also taking most liquidity away, which is important.

81:59 Yeah, my mom has one. She She's the one who forced me to get it. The way your AirPod is hanging out in your ear. It's no wonder you lost the ring. They're new AirPods. They need a couple days to get adjusted to my earlobes. Is that the right term for it? Earlos. What is the inside of your ear called? It's a earlo, right? I think that's the right word. It'll take a couple days. Honestly, these actually like the audio sounds better in these. My last ones were old and I think they were kind of dirty and like I don't know. I think like sometimes the fresh ones just feel better. Oh, canal.

82:42 Oh Ear canal. Oh, that makes more sense now that you guys say it. Dude, we I didn't like this wasn't taught in anatomy when I was in high school. I was supposed to remember this The ear canal is an S-shaped tube about one inch long that runs from your outer ear to the eardrum. It's can it's canel ear canal.

83:16 No, it's I'm pretty sure it's canal, guys. I don't think it's Canelo. Hold on. I'm pretty sure you guys are wrong on that. I'm pretty sure it's canal. Canal. >> Okay, dude. I've heard this word before and I've heard canal. I've not heard ear canal. Who the hell says ear? I'm not trolling.

83:55 It's a As soon as I saw CL, I knew I was wrong about lobe. Like I'll give you that. But I didn't think it was canel. Canel sounds. So you're canel. Okay, whatever. Like root canal. Oh, okay. That makes more sense.

84:26 Like Panama Canal. Well, why did I think it was Okay, whatever. All right, it's Canel. It's Canel. On first look, I remembered Canal. And I'm sure there is a word called canal that's out there. It just it wasn't in this. Canal is definitely a word, right? Canal. Canal word. Canal.

84:58 Yo, the word canal translates to canel or channel in several languages. It It's low key. I'm kind of right. It's just like not exactly right. But look at this. The word canal, which I would imagine that's how you say it, translates to canel or channel in several languages. The bed of a stream or other way through a liquid can flow. How do they have the pronunciation on this? They don't have pronunciation. All right, whatever. It's canel. Okay, it's canel. It's canel. Whatever.

85:32 I thought it was canal. I don't know what to tell you guys. I don't know what to tell you guys. Why are you crying, bro? It's not It's like It's not that funny. Like, I thought it was ear canal. That's what I thought it was. I don't know what to tell you guys. When I eyes I'm my mind is moving a thousand miles an hour. When I see some of these words, I say it as soon as I say it exactly how it sounds like to me. Like, I wouldn't say root canal. I would have said root canal.

86:00 When I saw ear and then that word, it came out as canal. I don't know what to tell you guys. The other day my mom was like, "He speaks English really good." And I was like, "English is his first language. He just sucks at pronouncing things." I I I genuinely think it's because like I'm seeing the comments so fast. And the Okay, ear canal. I got it. That's how you freaking say it. Anyway, I think the AirPods will adjust to my ear canal.

86:31 And that's that's how it'll work. Oh no, don't tell me to say Massachusetts. I still can't say that stupid freaking I don't know why that word is so hard to say. The S and the H sound together, dude. It's never worked for me. It's never worked. Whatever it is what it is, you guys. Now 70 in the morning when I said 7ity that was kind of crazy in the morning but that's cuz I was reading really quickly and I don't know why they wouldn't just put 70. I don't know why they who spells out yeah the earnings were up 70%. Who actually spells it out like when I'm reading quickly it's kind of like you know hard to say things perfectly.

87:17 I don't know why they just didn't put this up. So Svenity this morning. Yeah that was a little embarrassing but canal like I'm gonna stand on that. I thought it was Canal. I'm wrong. I acknowledge it, but I thought it was Canal. Ray says, "Just end the stream." Now I'm not ending the stream. Now I'm keeping the stream going. Oh my gosh. Do you know Alex from Tickerolu? Yes. I have to Dude, we have to do a show together. We haven't DONE A PODCAST. OH, BY THE WAY, someone reached out to do basis points because they're going to be in New York. And when Steve told me who it was, I could not believe it. It's not a big CEO. It's not a big like entrepreneur, but it's someone who when you guys see the thumbnail, you're going to be like, "Really? He did the podcast?" Because this person does not do podcast. And I was shocked when Steve was like, "He asked to be on the podcast." I was like, "Really?"

88:10 So hopefully that happens in September. But that's going to be fun. It's not Tom Lee. It's not Bur. But you guys will love this episode. He doesn't do a lot of podcasts. That's my one hint. He doesn't do a lot of podcasts. I don't want to I don't want to give you another hint because I think it's kind of obvious. It's like don't think CEO, entrepreneur, big tech. Don't think any of that. It's someone we all know. That'll be my last hint. But I couldn't believe it. I was like, really?

88:35 He wants to be on. That's awesome. So, that should be fun. Should be a fun podcast. It's not Matt, but eventually when Matt makes his way to New York again, we'll make it happen. It's kennel. Yo, is it canel or kennel or canal? You guys are freaking confusing me now. How to say ear I was about to say canal again. Oh, chat can pronounce stuff now. Thank goodness, bro. They didn't have this a month ago. I used to go to Google. I can stop using these stupid YouTube videos now. Oh my goodness. This is amazing.

89:18 Ear canal. >> Ear canal. Wait, isn't that what I said? Ear canal. No, what did I say? What did I Now I don't even remember what I said. Ear canal. >> Ear canal. >> That's how you say it, right? Wrong word. What do you mean wrong word? That's not the wrong word. ear canal.

89:49 What did I say? I can't even remember how I said it now. I said, wait, so I said it right the fir the whole time. Bro, you guys are confusing the out of me. Wait, hold on. Was I actually right? I said ear canal. Oh, it's now. So, I had the first part of it right, but not the I said ear canal. It's ear canal.

90:19 >> Ear canal. >> Okay, there you go. I said ear canal. I had the C right. I didn't have the the the predicate of it correct. It's canal. Canal, not canal. Okay, there you go. There you go, dude. But thank goodness you guys asked me to ask chatbt, whoever sent the super chat, Jace, because we have been using these stupid YouTube videos made in 1973 to figure out how to say these words. Like I've been waiting for Chad Jub to just have it in here.

90:53 10 minutes of my life wasted. They weren't wasted. Now you know how to always say ear canal. For those that didn't know how to say, now you're never going to get that wrong. My boy did not get weightlisted at Harvard. How do I prove to you guys I got freaking weight listed, dude? I wish they sent a freaking email. They had the Harvard portal that obviously expired like 20 days after I checked if I got rejected or not. I should have taken a screenshot, dude. I needed to I needed to think in the future that this was important for me to say I actually got weight listed at Harvard and no one would believe me and I didn't take a freaking screenshot.

91:33 Welcome to second grade. Ear canal. There you go. We got it. Honestly, it's easier if you guys just let me say the word the wrong way. Like, because that gets us through the show and we can move on to different topics without having to like you guys know what I'm trying to say at the end of the day. As long as you guys get it, that's all that matters. Your mom gave you a fake weight list to make you feel better. I showed you guys that email from 2016. I emailed Mr.

92:05 Mitchell. This was around the same time that I got weight listed. I don't know what I told him, but I told him something. It's from my AOL. And and that's when that's how I justified the weight list. Dude, it's kind of crazy. AOL still has emails from that long ago. But anyway, I did get weight listed, then I got rejected. So, it is what it is. How big is the weight list? That's a good question. How big is the weight list for people that get weight listed from Harvard?

92:50 Wow. They only weight list 2,000 people. They only accept like 2400. Damn. So, I got on a 2,000 person weight list. That's actually kind of crazy how many people get into Harvard. It's like 2400, right? 2,000. It's about 2,000. Okay. So, they wait list 2,000. So, that means they accept 400 in the initial spot because 1,600 accept their spot. So, it's like 400 acceptances and then they have the weight list of 2,000. Then, out of that 1,600 get in.

93:25 Damn, your boy almost went to Harvard, bro. Harvard? Yeah, it's 50,000 applic big schools. I don't think they're that relevant anymore to be hon with AI, with content like you have an idea, you have a concept, you just go and you do it. But obviously the prestige of those institutions has not diminished even if you know they're not as prestigious as they were before. And if you still go there you're you know guaranteed to have a easier time finding a job and all that stuff. But I think technology has made it so much easier for everyone to just try and do stuff.

94:11 That's true. Back when I was applying there was no chat. Dude, if there was chat it was chat GBT when I was in high school. The amount of thing like you know CHEG I used to use CHEG all the time. Now, these kids don't have to ever worry about asking a math question and hoping someone submitted, you know, a question into like a database of crowdsourced information. It's just the LLM figures it all out. Where's CHEG stock, by the way, is that thing even still I think it's still listed. It's down 2% today. This thing is down like 99%.

94:40 It is about the network. That is fair. your network is what really get I mean you have to either be exceptional to get into Harvard which I mean I I was okay in high school but I wasn't like you know some of these resumes I've seen that get into Harvard I was nothing like that. It's down 99% over the past five years. or you have to have the right network and you have to know the right consultants. I mean, a lot of it's political at the end of the day, and you know, those people have an inn with those schools to to get you in or your family has to have a name on one of their buildings. And you know, you also kind of have to be rich. I mean, they only accept a certain amount of people that they subsidize the payment for, but it's like 50 60 grand a year.

95:18 So, you know, who's going to pay that? People that are rich, right? Like the average person, the average family of four making 100 grand a year. They're not going to pay 70, 80 grand a year. And that was back then and now it's got to be how much is Harvard? How much is Harvard per year? It's got to be pushing a 100, right? 95,000 to a 100,000. Yeah. You've got to have some rich families to to to pay that and subsidize the people that can't pay that. I mean, there's no way in hell my parents would have been able to pay that. So, kind of also needed massive financial aid if I got in or some type of scholarship to get in.

96:00 Yeah, Ruckers had open arms. They said, "Hey, we're here. We'll teach you how to say words." Even though they didn't. Their endowment's like 60 billion, right? Harvard endowment, 56.9 billion. They have SpaceX, they have Bitcoin, they have a lot of stuff in there. That's also part of the reason or part of the way that they get to pay for a lot of this stuff. But, you know, they can't pay for everyone. So there's got to be some people that pay the majority of it.

96:33 100k per year to tell everyone for the rest of your life you went to Harvard. I mean that's really what it is because I I refuse to believe the education is that much better than Ruckers. I'm not the perfect example to say that so I can't say ear canal canal canal canal but still I mean the educa dude I've sat in some of these classes because I had some friends who went to I leagues and I would like stay with them for a weekend and I would like go to their classes it's not that special bro I remember Stanford I went to a political science class I'm like there's a diagram on the board and there's 500 kids and the teacher in the front of the room is talking about conservative versus libertarian arian values. I'm like, this is not special. Like, this is not like, oh my goodness, I'm in Stanford.

97:16 I'm taking this polit It's like, you're taking the same everyone else is taking. It's just you're in Stanford. So, I I I don't think the education is necessarily that much better, but the prestige is there. The difference is literally Mark Zuckerberg and us. Yeah. But see, Zuckerberg didn't even graduate and I don't know. I think Zuckerberg would have been successful without Harvard. Now, obviously the string of events that happened in life that led him to creating Facebook probably Harvard influenced that, but like he's built a multi-t trillion dollar company and he did it at Harvard, but I don't think it was because of Harvard's classes. I mean, he dropped out for a reason, right?

98:00 And there's been a lot of people that have also done amazing things that obviously had no intention of the Ivy Leagues playing a role there. But the network is important. It's just salty. He got weightlisted. I just want proof that I got I don't even care. Dude, I am so happy I didn't get into Harvard. I've said this over and over again. My life would not turn out the way it is if I went to Harvard. I would have been too safe and coddled and I would have become a consultant. like it would have been such a boring existence and all I get to say is at dinner parties, "Oh yeah, I graduated Harvard in 2020." It's like, no, dude.

98:37 Like I needed to go on a journey and take some risks and fail and, you know, be able to express myself creatively, which is what this YouTube channel and content has given me the ability to do a lot. There was no playbook for how to do that. You just had to go out there and try. And I think Ruckers, you know, toughened me up a bit because there's 50,000 kids and like no one's going to cuddle you. You got to figure out.

99:02 And I think an Ivy League would have been the opposite of that. Now I stream on YouTube 10 hours a day. Exactly. It is kind of weird when I tell my friends, bro, like like, dude, my high school reunion's coming up in September. I don't think I'm gonna go. I kind This is a 10-year reunion. I really don't want to go. But it's like how do you even tell people what you do? Like like like a lot of people don't get it.

99:29 They also think it kind of sounds lame, which they can think whatever they want. I love what I do and I really am grateful for it. But like if I said, "Oh yeah, like I've interviewed Alex Karp." Like I bet you 99% of the people at my high school reunion do have no idea who Alex Karp is or Vlad Tennv, you know, or quite frankly what bond yields are. Like I I just don't think those people are gonna care that like that's what I talk about for a living. And I have a podcast that talks about the Fed and Kevin Worsh. Like I just don't think those people care. So like I I don't think they're going to think anything of it. They're just going to be like, "Oh, cool.

100:03 You invented the game you want to play." Exactly. Which is a harder thing to do. But yeah, I also I don't I think some things in life it's okay to close the chapter on. Like I kind of don't want to see my high school friends because like I don't know. I haven't kept up with any of them. Like literally any of them. Maybe one or two briefly. But actually there's a couple people in my class that went to Harvard. There's like three people that got into Harvard actually.

100:34 So there were a few of them that did get into Harvard. Maybe it was two people. Yeah, maybe it was about two people. But yeah, I don't know. It's okay for some chapters to end. And you don't have to revitalize a chapter in the past if you don't if you don't need to, right? If it's not going to result in anything. Tell them you're an investor. Dude, that's like that's like putting I'm a shareholder of Google on my LinkedIn.

100:58 What do you do? I'm an investor. It's like what? There was this meme. What was it? He's not broke. It was It was the girl. It was the Spider-Man meme. He's not broke. He's What was it? He's not broke. He's It was like he's not broke, he's non-liquid. But it was better than that. But it was a funny meme. That's what it's like. Like when you say you're an investor, it doesn't really mean anything. Even though that's true, but like it's not something people interpret.

101:28 I ring a bell every morning. That is a more accurate description. Stock trader. Dude, that sounds like a scam. Like anyone who says, "Oh, I trade stocks for a living." It it gives me Forex vibes. You know all those for you remember 10 years ago where everyone was trading forex and like they were selling courses on how to trade forex. Like what we do in the stock market is like very real. It doesn't feel like a scam. But like when you say, "Oh, I'm a trading stocks." Like people, you know, they think it's like scammy.

101:57 So I don't know. Tell them you're a venture capitalist. I mean that is true. I have some big updates for the VC stuff going into 2027. some big I have a lot of big updates for 2027, but the VC stuff is going to be part of it. And hopefully we'll have some more institutionalization to get this VC stuff off the ground. And yeah, I think the VC stuff will be a lot more fun next year. There's a lot of exciting companies out there, but you know there needs to be different ways in which you find those companies about those companies and actually figure out if they're meaningful if they have meaningful growth trajectories. Google 348. Google's not red for whoever said it was red after hours.

102:44 Google is up slightly. Say you do male astrology on Tuesdays. I'm a financial entertainer, venture capitalist, capitalist, allocator, and fund manager. S, how do you actually like communicate what you do? Like, it's hard unless people understand. And people understand that content's a thing and that people do content for a living, but a lot of people don't really get it, even if they understand it's a thing.

103:15 Phil says, "I say I'm an investor." And people are like, "That's true." But they're also like, "Huh?" Yeah, exactly. Tell them I'm a Queen fan. Dude, Bohemian Raps City. Such a good song, man. Such a good song. Such a good song. It's a great song. Day Trader sounds bad. Day trader sounds horrible, too. Like, because people like, "Oh, he's day trading." It's like, you know, it's like, but to be fair, I don't I don't care about having a title, you know? I I care more, forget the title. I care more about do I want to be there? Do I want to talk to those people? Do I want to reminisce about the good old days? It's like I don't know, man. Because those were good days, but like I think there's a lot better days coming up. Like, do I really want to revisit the past with people that I just don't even talk to anymore.

104:02 And if it's not, then it's like, all right, let's, you know, let's keep moving forward and move on. You know, there might be a few of them that I really want to talk to and just catch up, but outside of that, it's not something that's that exciting for me. Just tell them you're unemployed. That might be better. That might be better. tell him you're quant, but I guess in some ways the ability for me to see what's red and green every day is kind of quantitative.

104:41 That candle's a little red. That candle's really green. I mean, there is some quant that's associated with it. >> Trust me, you don't want to go to be a bunch of fake fake peasant pleasant trees all night. Yeah, I would imagine the same as well. They might be on your streams. There's been a few of them that have hit me up that have seen the streams, but not that are like consistently watching or care that much.

105:10 You can tell them you talk to a bunch of people twice a day. People don't even get that, dude. I don't even understand like the concept of streaming every day. Okay. Do we have any other stock market headlines or are we just talking now? Abselera director bought 500 grand worth of stock. There you go. 53,000 shares. Absela has had a nice little run from that $4 range. More than doubled. So, shout out to those in Absela.

105:41 Samsung and SKH Highix are reportedly expanding equipment investment at their China based NAND flash facilities through next year, targeting demand for advanced storage and AI servers for Chinese companies. That makes sense. The broader issue is if Apple is allowed to procure Chinese memory, which is why the memory names were down today. I'm stressed in the finance industry, which is why I've got gray hairs at 28 years of age. Dude, it's like legit gray. Can you guys see it?

106:10 You see that one right there? All right, everyone can see that. That's clear as day. Everyone can see that one. That's gray, bro. Look at that. And there's more of them. What about my hair? Can we see a gray hair? I saw a bunch over the weekend. It's in there. It's definitely in there. It's gray. That's gay hair. Oh my gosh. Yeah, it's definitely gray.

106:41 It's definitely crazy. I'll be 29 in a couple months, bro. It's kind of crazy. It's not Kramer who's the guest. You guys will love the guest, but some of you guys guessed it in the chat. A couple of you guys guessed it. I just couldn't believe when Steve said he wants to be on the show. I was like, really? It'll be a fun one. Hopefully in September. 29. Dude, let's do an age check. We haven't done an age check in a while in the chat. I think most of you will be 30 to 40.

107:16 100%. Most of you are 30 30 to 40. okay. What age are you? So 20 to 30, 30 to 40. So poll 40 to 50, then 50 to 60. We'll do 50 plus. Whoever is 50 plus, I think the analytics are mainly 30 to 40. I think in general it's like 35 to 55 is the demographic because again investing like it's not easy to care about investing when you're young. Although we do have some people that are like in their 20s that watch, which is amazing, but I know I'm in my 20s, but like it it's not easy to be like 22, 23 and be like, "What I'm going to watch on YouTube is investing finance content."

108:02 And not just like the here's the credit card you should buy and Like there's all these financial YouTubers that like don't talk about finances. They talk about DCA into the S&P, buy lowcost index funds, and here's my link to sign up for a credit card. Like that type of content is fine. It's just that's not really finance. You're not into the stock market. You're into like this general literacy about like credit card rewards and well which is you know most people don't even you know DCA into lowc cost index funds and stuff. It's not like you have to pick individual stocks. It's just caring about you know Kevin Wars's statements and how it affects bond yields and Nvidia stock price is a whole different type of finance audience. You know that type of audience like really cares about finance. Yeah. 30 to 40. I was right. 32% of you 30 to 40. 20% 50 plus and then 26% 4050.

108:53 Did anyone have a birthday recently? Properties wisdom says 79. I love it. See a few people saying I'm 60. Han Solo 60. David, dude, Davis just turned 31. Shout out to Davis. Officially officially into his 30s. I'll be with Davis pretty soon. literally because he'll be in New York for the Zeta event, but also age-wise I'll be there. Hunter said, "I turned 25 on August 7th." Happy belated.

109:26 Bad says, "I'm 38." Happy birthday, man. Happy birthday to you. Zo says, "I think I'm 41." Dude, I've heard like as you get older, you forget what age you are. Like, you have to literally think about it. Like, I asked my dad the other day. He was like, "I don't know." I was like, "You know what? That's fair. Like, I'm probably going to forget soon as well. John 51, Veral 33. I love it. Chad says, "Yes, I have to think about it."

109:54 Yeah, because it's like, you know, you like you just like you've been alive for XYZ year. You don't like every day tell yourself how old or not you're turning. Green bread maker, thank you for becoming a channel member. Appreciate you being here. Jay Books at 79 tomorrow. That is incredible. Happy early birthday. 1934. That happened when I hit 32. Yeah, I It kind of happened to me low-key the other day. Like I was about to say 29, like, "Oh, no, I'm 28." I'm like, "Well, I'm basically 29 in like a couple months." It's like, "What's the difference?" Right.

110:28 Wow. Fabio Rich turning 82 tomorrow. I love that. That's incredible. Happy early birthday to you. After 35, you stopped counting. That's also fair. You could check your YouTube analytics for this. I can't. I I I mean, the the poll chat is kind of consistent with the the YouTube analytics. Let me pull it up. Dude, I'm so happy chatt can pronounce the words. We've been waiting for this for so long. Thank goodness I messed up on ear canal.

111:06 because like we needed AI to just easily do this without having to use the YouTube videos. Okay. Analytics audience age. Let's do for lifetime. And if I'm still saying it wrong, I don't care anymore, bro. I don't care anymore. I thought it was canal.

111:37 I thought it was canal. Then I said it wrong the second time. I was like canel. It's like it's Canal. Canelo versus canal. It's It's just It's kind of ridiculous. But we figured it out and now it is what it is. 25 years old, 25 to 34, 27%. 32% at 35 to 44. Yeah, it's it's mainly 35 to it's mainly 25 to 55 really and then 65 is 5% 55 64 10%. We do have 5% that are 18 to 24.

112:13 Kunal is your cousin's name. Goodness gracious, bro. Maybe that's why it looked like Kunal to me. And this is only a two-cllable word. What's a really hard word to pronounce? Let's ask Chad. Give me a really hard word to pronounce without telling me how to. Let's see if we can get something here.

112:47 Oh, hell no. What is this? Warchesterershire. No, there's no H. War Cesterire. Okay, now tell me how to say it. Have you guys seen this word? >> Was to share. >> Was to share. Yeah, that wasn't going to work. This is British, right?

113:21 was to share. What does it mean? Was to share. No, I meant it. No. What does the word mean? It's a county in England. Oh, that's it. It's also used in sauce. Okay. My Brits, my Brits, you guys. you guys know the word, I guess.

113:58 The sauce. Wait, hold on. Let's let's put this in England or let's put this in Google. A rural county in West Central England. They're still not saying it right. Well, that's how Chachi says it. That is not how you say it. That's what we're going to have to settle for. This is all this stupid trillions of capex. If that's not right, like at this point, if the LM are wrong about stuff, I blame society because we're spending all this money on this So, it better be right.

114:34 They sell that sauce in America. You guys know so much about the world more than I do. Like, you guys know all these things about the world. Like you guys knew about Bohemian Rapsidity and he acts like he was sheltered at Harvard, too. No, I I don't know what I grew up doing because I don't know all this basic stuff that you guys know about, but I'm I'm I'm I'm excited to learn. I'm intellectually curious about all these new ideas that entering into the world.

115:08 Bitcoin 79 again. Okay. It was really teasing us with 80,000, dude. It like touched it for half a sec, less than half a second and then it just didn't work out. Get Thad Guy on, dude. Is he is I would love to have him on. I was on his stream a while ago. I would love to talk some crypto with him. I'll try to try to get him on soon. I did his show like two months ago. Had dinner with him. He's a great guy. Awesome dude.

115:44 Would love to have him on the show and talk to him. He streams in the morning as well. I'll try to find a a time to get him on. Dude, the bit the crypto stuff is really like the onchain activity is really exploding. Even if you're not seeing it in Bitcoin and Ethereum, even though those are doing great, but you know, he's in that crypto universe and you're seeing a lot more crypto people that are there. Yeah, Skrey apparently signed a contract today for a onchain crypto trading app called Pump Fun. I'm sure you guys have heard of it before and he's now trading meme coins on this platform. So, you're seeing a lot more activity.

116:27 Obviously, we talked about FOMO. FOMO hit number three in finance on Friday. FOMO was ahead of Instagram in the app store. top 50 apps in in the United States of America. FOMO, another crypto social trading app. I mean, you're seeing a lot of excitement around onchain trading. And I think that that's part of the reason some of the the crypto momentum continues to be strong.

116:59 Have you watched the original Highlander yet? No. That's a show, right? Original Highlander. 1986 fantasy film. Okay, never mind. Who the hell is Christopher Lambert? I know Sean Connory. I've heard of that guy. Christopher Lambert. I've never heard of this guy. Homelander.

117:31 Okay, I'll put it on the list. We'll put it on the list. Why was SoFi down today? I think because yields went up. I think I've seen Shudder Island a while ago with Leo, right? That was a long time ago I've seen, but yeah, I've seen it. I mean, it was good. It's not my It's not my go-to Leo movie, but I have seen it. Got to watch Margin. I don't like Margin Call, dude. I think The Big Short is way better than Margin Call. I never really loved that movie.

118:02 I still have to finish Boiler Room. That's the one that I never finished in. Meta got an upgrade by Bank of America to A10, arguing the multi-year youth addiction litigation will not derail the company's long-term AIdriven valuation. Kramer says to buy Meta, sell Broadcom. Okay. I mean, look, ultimately I think Meta is going to be fine, but they've just got to deal with this situation right now.

118:38 watch solo leveling anime. I haven't seen any anime, dude, outside of Yu-Gi-Oh a long time ago. I have not seen that in a while. I wonder what's going to happen with this situational awareness thing that would be I mean this subpoena like I wonder what they're actually going to be able to do to make sense of this. and what information they would get. I'm not selling Broadcom. I wouldn't either. This company will be fine. 358.

119:09 It's just, you know, on a day when Nvidia falls. It's going to be hard for the rest of these guys to to make a move. It's not Elon who's the next guest. It's not even confirmed yet, so I can't even say their name, but he definitely wants to do it and he'll be in New York in September. But it's not Elon. We will have Elon on one day. It will happen. I'm also trying to get our boy Jensen on and like I am trying. I can't make any promises, but I think Jensen's way more likely than Elon because I have a relationship with Nvidia and I feel like they'd be open to it. Elon's a bit tougher. Elon, I would to call in a favor and then that person would have to do me a solid. And you know, whenever whenever you're asking for a favor from someone, it's like you gotta whenever you ask for a favor from someone, they always have to know that either you're going to pay them back in some way, especially when it comes to like business networking, or that they just really love you and they're willing to do something for you. Very rarely do people just just purely do it out of the the the pure like love to like give back, you know, and so it's not easy, but I think Jensen might be more likely than not.

120:31 A lot of it has to do with regulations, too. The point is we're we're a stock market show. So like there's always that hesitation from some of these companies, but like so is Bloomberg, so is CNBC. So it's like it's one of those things where they just have to be open to it a little bit more. But they're not afraid of retail because you know there's a reason why Jensen's on X now. But it'll be fun to to talk to him.

120:56 >> >> That's why you never do things for me is look I think of when I when someone asks me to do do a favor for them from a business perspective like hey can you reach out to this person or hey can you make an introduction I always try to think of like I just want to build goodwill and like maybe in the future there will be an opportunity for me to connect but it's more so like you know you got to build goodwill you got to do things just for the sake of doing it and you've got to network and create opportunities for other people like if you're not creating opportunities for other people with the platform that you have, then it's hard for that stuff to meaningfully come back in any significant way. And and every opportunity that I've got, someone took a chance on me, right? Like our boy Chad in the chat, that first AIP con he he was the one who championed for me and Arie to be there. And like it's so crazy. It was almost three years ago, but we did a whole halftime show. Like I hosted a whole halftime show with Palenter employees. It feels like it was just yesterday, but it was 2024.

121:54 And like, you know, you needed someone on the inside to campaign on like, hey, let's let's get this let's make this happen. And then he he came back two years later and did basis points, which the answer to his question right there is zero legal reviews. The thing about Chad, dude, is like he's at a level at Palunteer now where he can talk and the company knows that a he knows how to talk in a public manner because he's done it so much, but b they want him talking publicly.

122:24 So, you know, there were not many legal hurdles to jump through. But with some of these other companies that obviously I don't have as much of a close relationship to, you get a lot more of that legal to to go down. If you had Bur on, what would you ask him? Well, I think with Bur or Zitron, I don't think these guys like genuinely, and it's company by company, but like Zitron, I don't think he actually understands anything about AI. Like I think he is really eloquent at talking about the headlines and making them sound scary because of his communication skills, but I really don't think he understands a lot of the fundamental elements of what's happening with AI. Even though his arguments sound convincing because on the surface level, yeah, a lot of this stuff sounds convincing when you're skeptical. With Bur I think he like when I read his 10,000page soliloquy on Pounder and he said they don't make an LLM, therefore they're not an AI company. That's when I was like, "Oh, this guy's full of shit."

123:13 Like the entire point of Pounder is you don't need to build an LLM. because it's a commodity. So when it go read his 10,000 page like like when when when he said they don't make an LLM, they can't possibly get an AI multiple. I was like, "No, no, no, no. You you completely missed the point." And he spent 10,000 words missing the point. And then when you say it's worth under a dollar, I'm like, "Now you're being a clickbait." You know, now you're just doing it to exaggerate emotion. So I I would have an in-depth discussion on like how they come to this analysis or if a lot of it's more rooted in in in in clicks.

123:47 But I would love to talk to them. It would be fun. It'd be very fun. It wasn't 10,000 pages. It was 10,000 words. But someone sent it to me as a PDF. I didn't pay for it. And so I'm reading it and I'm like, there's nothing here. and he's explaining about Karp's jet expenses. I'm like, dude, this is like this is embarrassing at this point. Like, you could make a bear case on Pounder. Don't tell me the CEO flying on jets to close$und00 million deals is like a bear case.

124:16 I would love to interview Leupold. Leopold hasn't done an interview since 2024 and I would be very gracious with the interview because look, I don't want to pick on the guy given the situation he went through because first of all, he has accomplished a gazillion times more than most people in their life will ever accomplish. I mean, the guy was managing $50 billion, right? Obviously, he floed up losing a lot of it, but he didn't fraud anybody. It was overlever. It wasn't FTX. it was a big mistake. I would want to have a very simple conversation about how it happened. It wouldn't be to pick on the guy like because I'm I've made mistakes in my life. We all make mistakes. I haven't made a $50 billion mistake, but nonetheless, you know, as the more successful you get, the higher the risks are and you might end up getting a little too greedy and make some mistake.

125:02 But I I would love to have a conversation about how he didn't realize market dynamics matter more than his thesis because it's a it's a universal concept that all of us can relate to. You could all have a thesis on a stock or a set of companies or a trade and then the market goes against you and your thesis isn't wrong. It's just it's the market. And I think that would be the the the the dynamic behind the interview.

125:29 Remember when Bear Cave bodied you in a debate? That was the OG OG Palunteer debate. I could have done better in that debate. I did good in that debate cuz I got him on the ontology thing. I was like, "What's an ontology?" He's like, "What's that?" I was like, "Dude, you wrote a short a short report on Palunteer. You don't know what the word ontology means." You don't have to know everything about I can't explain ontology and all the technical de but like I know what it is. I know why it's valuable. I know how it differentiates Palentry from a lot of other software companies, especially in 2023. And he was like, "What's an ontology?" I was like, "What?"

126:05 Like, "So, what's your bear case then?" Cuz like that's the product they're selling in Foundry. This was I think before AIP. AIP came out a couple months after. This was a May. AIP came out in June. He actually reached out to me a year ago and he just you know said congrats on all your success and everything. But there were moments in that debate where I could have done a lot better. When I listened back to I was like okay there was certain arguments that could have been better. But that was kind of the core thing that I think allowed me to get the the one up there.

126:36 If you had only one crypto, Bitcoin, ETH or Salana, I feel like it has to be Bitcoin simply because it's it's it's BTC, right? Like ETH follows Bitcoin. Salana definitely follows the majors. I think ETH is more useful than Bitcoin based on everything we're seeing and the traction around tokenization, but I feel like it would still be Bitcoin. It's funny how people here switch from bullish to bearish one day. I don't think people switch to bearish. I think just when price action goes against you on a Monday in August like it did today, it's, you know, it's a bit annoying. I don't think anyone's selling their long-term holdings in any of these stocks. I mean, people might be hedging a little bit. People might be selling some calls, might be taking some profits, might be buying some protection, but the bull case is earnings. That's not slowing down. The bare case is all noise, but that noise is becoming louder and more relevant because it has to deal with the credit markets. And, you know, unfortunately, that's what we're experiencing right now.

127:36 I think to legit go bearish here and call it top, like you have to have a set of arguments that are deeper than the Iran war because we know Trump can switch on that in a second. Definitely better not be the Canada tariff stuff. That's I think going to be over in like a few weeks. and if it's not, it will eventually be over. And then you have to have belief that inflation is not going to slow down. The Fed's going to hike. And even if that happens, I think it's not the end of the world. So, like I don't necessarily know what gets Nvidia back to $100 and makes Bur shorts make more sense.

128:12 Yeah, there's too much negativity for this to be the top. We need more euphoria. 100%. 100%. I was on the airplane to Singapore when Micron had earnings and you know the the the okay so the earnings were great but I remember and I didn't act on this so I I can't take credit for like benefiting off this move but like a part of me was like dude this is as good as it gets. They cannot increase margins more than this. It was pushing damn near 90%. I was like this is stupid. This is not going to be the market being excited. this is the market going to say okay it went from 100 to 1,200 on basically 90% gross margins that's it and then a day later Apple comes out and says you know we're increasing prices and that's the market top now I didn't short Micron so I didn't get to benefit off that but in my head I'm I'm in the flight and I'm like I don't own Micron so I'm not benefiting off the upside it's up 17% after hours but I'm like there's no way you could be even more excited about this unless you just think the multiple deserves to be 20 or 30 times not 15 times and if that's the case then it should go to 2,00 2500 etc. But if that multiple argument is not expanding because the market still thinks it's cyclical and the margins are definitely not what they're going to have 99% margins like like what's the upside and then Apple, you know, said what they said and ended up being a top and I I didn't understand the amount of leverage that went into the trade for memory in general and cost me that would also lead to microns decline. If I did, I would have shorted it, you know, made 40% on the way down. But yeah, you don't have that type of euphoria. You don't have that type of euphoria anymore.

129:49 >> >> Mitsah hair is 100% sell the news. What do you think the next super cycle is? It's robotics, but it's going to take some time. It has to be robotics. It has to be the actuators, the motors, the drills, all that stuff that's in robots. It has to be, but I don't think it's happening like in the next year. You did short it. I've shorted it for like a couple bucks here and there intraday and made a couple hundred bucks but like not actually shorting at 1,200 riding it to 700 you know like I didn't do that I don't think a lot of people did that to be honest I think a lot of people were scrambling with the memory names and there's very few funds that I think effectively called the top because like even at 1200 it's cheap if you put a regular multiple on it so do you really want to get stuck shorting at 1,200 then it runs to 2,000 like I don't think people were that excited to want to short those names think Micron will still hit 1500 by end of year? I mean, if it does, Nvidia is probably pushing 250. Like, everything has to go right for the broader market to make that happen. And I think that has a chance. I just don't know if it will.

131:03 What about the trend between August and November during midterm election years? Well, we we've talked about that like multiple times that, you know, I've pulled up that chart over and over again. We tend to bottom in October. Like this tends to be the start of the decline. August, September sucks. First two weeks of a August, by the way, are great, which happened again to the tea. First two weeks of August were great. And then October, you get a pretty ugly decline and then you rally into into the midterms for for the Santa Claus rally.

131:34 It's just we already had two 10% draw downs this year. So it's like one on the S&P, one on SMH. So it's like, does that need to happen again? And that I don't know. All right, guys. I think that's it. I think that's it. I now know how to say canal. I called it an earlobe, dude. Earlo is this, right? That's an earlobe.

132:05 Goodness gracious, dude. Anyway, we found out that Chhat GBT can tell us how to pronounce things, which is incredible. And we learned how to say some words. Trump is not live, bro. He was live. He was talking about the education system. I don't I don't even know what they're doing. Oh, Joseph Carlson said he bought $10,000 of a new stock. What is it? It's a long video. I'm not going to watch the whole video, but what is the stock?

132:39 What is this? I'm just curious what he bought. Oh, technically it doesn't have to be a news. I think it's Uber. I think he bought 10,000 of Uber. Yeah, it's Uber. I don't disagree with that. I think that's fine. It's not Zeta, bro. Joseph Carlson's not the type of guy to buy Zeta or Pounder. He doesn't do that. Is it Zeta? Wait, is it Zeta?

133:11 Hold on, dude. If he bought Zeta, that would be interesting. Oh he bought Zeta. Oh, he just did an interview with someone. Wait, did he buy Zeta? This is just hold on. Let's look at his video. I don't really know if he actually bought it or not. >> Zeta Global. It's an interesting company. I learned about it for the first time in this 2hour deep dive interview. It was incredibly informative. And then of course we have lots of videos on lots of different subjects diving into Uber, building wealth. Okay, so he did a deep dive on his Qualrum platform on Zeta. I don't think that means he bought Zeta.

134:00 Okay, cool. is getting more interested in Zeta, which is I don't know if he'd actually buy. Zeta is not the type of company Carlson would buy. You guys are saying he bought it. He didn't say that in his video. He bought it for the story fund. If he did, that's a that's a diver. It's like a small cap. He doesn't really buy those things. Interesting. I mean, he has a pretty big audience. might have a bunch of people follow him. Okay, so Nick pitched Zeta.

134:37 I don't see him saying that he actually bought it here, but Okay, that's cool. Shout out to Nick. Anyway, yeah, so I was saying we we learned some new words today. talked about all these different headlines. We went through Basent's Iran threat around economics and then ultimately we got this Nvidia 15% price hike and until Wednesday we're just going to wait from there.

135:12 Everyone's buying Goober. It's cheap, man. It's freaking cheap. I just I think the robo taxi headlines could still mess with it. Again, I bought a little bit of it at 74, but I mean, if it breaks out above 90, that's where like it can get interesting. It's got to really get a breakout. Pelosi's in. Pelosi bought Bloom and Intel today. That was also big news in the morning. I think that's part of the reason Bloom rebounded. Also, probably technically got oversold at 115 or 185. Intel bought some more Intel today. I think this one the CEO buying 100,000 shares at 95. Like again, I don't think the CEO is buying for no reason. I think they know it's going to be a lot more relevant and important.

135:49 I'm going to try to do some more digging into their numbers. I still don't love the valuation, but it's definitely better than at 147 couple couple weeks ago. What's your view on AAOI management? Continues to be shady with these dilutions. I think the optic space is going to be important. I just I don't know if again like would I buy it as a trade at 107 and sell at 150 any day of the week. Am I actually going to buy that stock and hold it after it's 5xed?

136:23 Like it's tough to do that with these picks and shovels, please. It's just tough. So, probably not. Do you still do a daily recap? Yes, on X. We do a daily recap on X every day. It's not a video recap, but yes, we do a daily recap on on X. Oh, Nick's in the chat. There you go. Shout out to Nick in the chat. Nick, did he say he's buying it or did he say he's interested?

136:53 I love how like we're like talking about what Joseph Carlson's gonna buy. I love this because it's like it's like what did Bill Aman buy? What did Buffett buy? Like it's just a on a much smaller scale for all of us in the finance community online. Like what did Tanner buy? What did Steve buy? What did Amit buy? Like it's it's it's it's cool, dude. Because it's like, you know, we all follow each other. So it's interesting. It doesn't just have to be what the big guys do.

137:18 Like Matt Money is buying a new stock. Oh, Roy today. Roy, I need to look at this freaking figure thing because Roy said he sold all of his SoFi and New Bank. Is that correct? I only saw the headline of his video, but he said, "I sold New Bank and SoFi for figure." I don't know if it's a little clickbait and he sold some of his position or if he sold all of it, but if he actually sold all of his SoFi and New Bang, and Roy is super bullish on both of those companies. I'll link the video right here.

137:50 I'm interested. Roy is a good friend of mine. I'm curious why is this figure thing giving him that much excitement? He's interested, but I don't think he bought it yet. Okay, cool. Nick, I will link your your ex right here. People can watch part of the interview on Nick's channel. Nick is like the OG Zeta content creator, so you can watch his stuff on his profile. Yeah, Roy absolutely nailed air test systems, dude. I think he called it at like 20 thing ran to 150. Absolutely nailed that. I mean that's in the photonic space. He he did some research understood that this is going to be one of the bigger beneficiaries. Even after the 50% dump he was up like 3x on air and then it just came back after the liquidation thing.

138:40 He sold only his options. Okay, that makes more sense. He probably sold his leaps on those two and bought figure. Yeah, I didn't think he would actually sell his SoFi stock on that, but I know he does like he does like figure. He didn't buy anything, but he has $10,000 for a stock that hits his target first. Okay, that's fair. I mean, I think that's a great way to put it. Like, if the stock reaches your target, then you're convinced enough to buy.

139:15 State Department says that today's actions targeted an Iranian regime directed cyber group responsible for extensive intrusions into US critical infrastructure. The United States is targeting individuals and entities involved in the Iran regime's weapons procurement cyber intrusions. We call on the international community to join us in holding these actors on to account. Okay. So, more escalation with Ron.

139:46 What's your favorite biryani? I don't eat biryani that much to be honest. It I don't know. Chicken biryani, I guess. I actually don't eat it that much. Expectations for Wednesday. I think Nvidia will crush. I just I do not know how the stock's going to react. It'll be fun though. I'm getting a brand new leather jacket. We're going to get ready for this Nvidia print. Needs to give us some big boy numbers.

140:18 And you know, hopefully that can help. But we've got to see if you know, we actually get the right numbers. Crush and dump. I mean, if I had to, but the thing is it's at 208. Like I feel like a run back to 220. It was at 225 all of last week. Like the idea that it's going to actually go below 200 or be flat is just like not that interesting to believe in given the nature of the price action so far. But I mean if that does happen, it would be really annoying. If it was at like 230, I could see it going back to like 205.

140:53 So I I think it pumps if it stays at this price action. The problem is all the political backlash that data centers are getting. Dude, it's an issue. It's something we we tend to ignore because we're in the stock market and we look at earnings and all this stuff, but like in the real world, people are not freaking happy about these data centers. And like I mean ultimately, Nvidia needs to be able to keep that temperature under control to, you know, let's keep growing the way they do and all the other AI companies need to do that as well.

141:25 Got to come to Germany one day. I I think I will be in Germany next year. I have a couple friends in Germany that I haven't seen in a while and I want to go to October Fest. So, I think maybe next year we'll do Germany. we'll definitely try to do New York and Miami meetups next year. We're supposed to do London this year, but things got in the way. We at least got to do Singapore.

141:44 So, hopefully London as well next year. We should have some different place to go to on the board. All right, that's it for me, folks. Thank you all for being here. I'll be back tomorrow for the market open. We do have some earnings tomorrow. We have what do we have? We have Zoom and we have into it and we have I'm not going to say it, bro. I've done enough with this stupid candle today.

142:19 DKS, you have their earnings as well. Good company. It's important company. I think I got a bike from that company. But yeah, so we've got those in the morning and we've got Zoom and into it in the afternoon. So that's what you got. Not my favorite company. Okay, I'm not saying it, bro. I've done enough damage with the pumpkin candles here.

142:50 All right. Thank you all for being here. I'll be back tomorrow in the market open again. Big week. We got Wednesday in video and then obviously we got this Fed stuff Thursday, Friday and we keep going from there. Thanks everybody. Appreciate you all. Have a good one. I'll see you guys tomorrow morning on the market open up. Bye everybody.