Macro Measure - October 2, 2026

0:02 Greetings. Greetings market rebels and market watchers everywhere. Welcome to this week's macro measure video combined with the video formerly known as the sector situation. It is Friday, October 2, I'm sorry, October 2nd, 2026. I am Wayne. It is really it's really the end of the week here and boy, I'm glad for that because I'm really wiped out. this is our trusty market rebellion disclaimer. Trusty Market Rebellion intellectual property rights notice getting to this late as a result.

0:33 It's been quite a whirlwind this week in the market and in UOA land. and it's let's see it's about 4:10 4:11 p.m. here on the east coast and we're getting getting right into it here. Last week we went with the old gateway to the yellow brick road because gate to the yellow brick road didn't sound so good but basically gate to the yellow brick road meaning right are we going to be on the on the way to gold and because everything really was set up so dismally on the contrarian stuff combined with the fact that the cues just have been doing the Freddy Mercury not you know with nothing really matters and the spies were not far behind you know so the two big dog major index ETF leaders they have been acting as if right nothing really there to worry about and we thought could they lead as is often the case could the mags chime in could SMH along with mags chime in kind of as a a combination and would that start to bring a lot of other things up eventually after the leaders got going? Well, the news really was rough overall, probably in the earlier part of the week. So, the market really got the stuffing kicked out of it even more even though there really wasn't much ultimately much of a drop in the Q's or the spy yet again. and the VIX really didn't do all that much as well. by the end of the week, the VIX has hit, let's see, 1535. So, that's really again telling us not very much about about the the amount of fear out there suggesting there isn't much despite right what we've been calling just an impressive wall of worry. And I I still maintain that it is if you're just looking at it without the insights that maybe some desks have and by virtue of proximity to the sources of power and so on. maybe the stuff's being made out to be worse than it is here, there, and everywhere. Maybe, maybe it isn't. I don't know. But from what I know, it's pretty rough. But I don't want to spend too much time on this. we basically pulled off the Simpsons era flip-flop, right? I'm flip-flopping on this from the week before and we were more in the corner of, hey, you know, this is so bad it's good for bulls because it's coming at the exact right time for the presidential election cycle 15month sweet spot. And that's becoming worrisome to me now because every time Dick and Harry not that we were the first to ever mention it or anything like that, but every time Tom Dick and Harry and Harriet is talking about this and it just may be a little too perfect, you know, in that in that regard. So you can argue things, you know, both ways a lot. I have always noticed that people get on and say, "Well, that was the market telling you.

3:52 That was the market telling you." So often maybe you could say that it's a lot easier in retrospect, you know, is the market, right? Which brings us really to I'm not going to belabor this. So let's get to this week's slide, which I'm going with rates, reluctance, regrets. And so the reason I'm going with that, I'll get to I hope I'll remember to anyway, but I'm going to pick up on right the reluctance part right now because if you think about it, this is really between the trashed absolutely trash market breath. Market breath is as trashed Where's that line at? As trashed as it was right near the March lows. I think I have that on here somewhere. I meant to put it anyway. I'm not going to waste time looking for it. So, you are literally right. You've got market breath is bad or worse than at March lows, but the cues and are made a new alltime high today. albeit with sort of like a it's not really a dogee. It's not really a a marabosu. It's not really all these different candlestick names, but it's some it's a mildly bearish candle in the Q's and the or at least indecisively bearish candle, slightly bearish candle in the Q's and the SMH. spies earlier today were 1% removed from the all-time high. They're a little more than that right now, like like one one and a quarter percent. But remember that that's a massive difference, right? the market was crushed including the major major in index ETFs that we focus on so folks can trade them. But yeah, so that's a big difference to me that just shows you really how resilient this whole situation is that you can get to that level of destruction under the surface which I referring to destruction subsurface down here. But that just shows you all about this incredible resilience that I'm sure other people talk about. I don't even have time to read other people. I came across a lot of really great tabs as I was dozing off this week. Shared them with the guys so we all were apprised of everything. But I'll I'm hardressed to remember them.

6:10 But a lot of them were there were so many and a lot of them were really speaking to how rough it really is under the surface this time. that kind of a thing. So, plus all the other problems that are building that are even worse, which means sort of along the lines of a, the AI trade just not adding up more for more basically, right? That that just more people seem to be focusing on that and posting about it and saying, "Hold on a second here."

6:41 But, excuse me, that just might not matter because again, we talked about the OPM crowd. There's going to be it's basically last week's question. So, we'll leave it up there. We usually leave last week's question up there. And yeah, so I mean the OPM crowd's going to do their thing unless right acted on by an extraordinary force instead of equal and opposite. I went with extraordinary because I think that really relates to the possibility for extraordinary news. we're in that time window. You know, to me where that makes sense because let's say, you know, the spy versus spy so-called political parties that we have like to orchestrate things, right, for maximum impact against the other side, the supposed or so-called or those playing the other side. So, you got to expect that potentially both ways. even though it's all the same to me, but anyway, that's a whole different subject. so yeah, I think there's that and that could be right where the news could tell the tale regarding resilience depending on what comes out or maybe how many different things come out about this that and the other thing. You could have problems. You could have blastoff, liftoff, you know. So, it just depends, right? I mean, I, you know, for Trump, him coming up with something to say, hey, Iran's over, right? It's done. Grass prices are coming down. I'm sure he would like to do that. so if there's any possibility of that, which I don't think there is from what I know from what the experts are that I read, but you know, again, that kind of gets you back to, who the hell really knows type of thing. Anyway, I don't want to really belabor this, but we'll try to come back to it, but, you know, we'll get to the charts, and that's really where it gets dicey in and of itself again. So, this just remains difficult. There's a little note on here somewhere about that where Yeah. So, I came across a few different players that were saying, you know, this is if you look at different metrics and their own sort of personal takes on things, which obviously are just anecdotal takes, but if you look at that and some metrics that people look at, they're saying, you know, this is really one of the hardest markets to trade in the last 25 years, basically this this century. so if if that makes you feel any better. right now it's just the last I would say the last few months have definitely been very difficult compared to trending phases. so hopefully we'll get into a trending phase soon. But on that note, I'm going to stop, excuse me, stop the share, kind of reposition things, get get these big slides from covering up all my charts. Then I'm just going to get right into the charts and we'll we'll get started. I'll keep it on. I hope it stays on the right screen because it was kind of painful to have to re-record after, you know, the week that I had.

9:46 It's been it's been despite the market being what it is, it's it's been pretty busy in UOA lands. Let me make sure this is doing the right thing. So yeah, I'm starting out with our four lot because we we often come to this right away anyway. I figured it might as we may as well get to it. But I think this is your big thing, right? this that's kind of like, you know, what do you want to go with on that candle? You know, I'm not I'm not sure. You know, some people are, of course, always have strong opinions about everything.

10:16 you know, is that a mildly bearish candle? You probably have to classify it as mildly bearish, just like you got to classify this over here. I apologize for the colors being different, but I think this is not sure how that's linked that it's that it's doing that, but you know, this is still a bearish candle because on this chart, blue is is bearish and green is bullish. green is bullish on all these others and red on the is bearish on all the others.

10:45 But, you know, it's a bearish candle. if you're having a hard time deciding if this is bearish, you know, I think that the lack of, you know, this is not really a great looking look right for the diamonds where in the midst of this big early surge that everyone was jazzed up about, you know, you don't even close up more than half a percentage point. really something that's been leaned on heavily. the IWM that didn't even close up 1% and probably rates lifting towards the end rather rather than finishing off probably hurt that as well. Maybe it hurt everything. But yeah, there there just so you all know, there was some very late paper, very late paper that appeared in the energy space. And it wasn't an overwhelming number of hits or anything, but it's almost like somebody snuck in there thinking maybe there could be an energy pop. maybe due to over the weekend news, the way that they transacted so late on Friday.

11:55 But so I just wanted to throw in that little side note. But anyway, right, new all-time high with within 1% of the all-time high earlier today, roughly speaking. So, very close. that kind of the 15-month cycle set to begin as of yesterday, technically the way people calculate it, right? That is there the sweet spot of the presidential election cycle. But again, it's been telegraphed a gazillion times over, including by by us. so I don't know, right, if you need to have basically like a back and fill and kind of thwart the early the early adopters on that and then maybe you go if news allows. I, you know, I don't know. I'm throwing that out there.

12:44 Another thing I have to throw out there is that you have a very similar candle. Not that that should be surprising, but to make life easy, there's that similar candle in SMH right there. It's a little small maybe to see, but it's very similar to the Q's candle. The leader difference is right, the Q's finished up twice as I'm sorry, SMH finished up twice as much as the Q's. So, SMH had a 2% day despite that. the Q's only had a 1% day. Let's make it a little more obvious on here. kind of just wanted to finish my train of thought and bring it in. So, you know, you've got these we were we were leaning towards this and Q's being leaders. We were leaning towards them trying to resume.

13:25 And, you know, they broke this out eventually without letting it really go down all that much after the initial kind of weakness on Monday. It kind of held everything together and just worked it up. Kind of kind of like them doing their thing that they do, you know. So that that that's that at least that sort of held true that the ones we were focusing on to lead sort of led. There was a little bit though because of different of news where the mags couldn't get it going even though they looked last week like they were sort of ready to get going. They had gotten hit with news stock specific news in some cases that weighed them down in a market that was being weighed down. But if you notice right by the end of the week they're kind of almost right back to where they were. So it's a very minimal change in this ETF 7264 versus 7259.

14:21 So that sort of weathered the storm if you will maintain the uptrend as it's done. And again it would be either double top low slightly lower high false breakout or breakout. Right? That's those those are your main scenarios. and the way that you know we have to wait and see for I think we have to wait and see for for more more action you know more news and that's just the kind of market you're in and that means right the regime you're in right now is not yet right clear that hey we have broken out and we are on the next leg higher to this point we're attempting to do that finally here or at least in the cues and we're very close to attempting to do that in the spiders but it hasn't quite gotten there yet. So, that's that's where you are. That's kind of where this that answers the question of where am I. And I would say that the charts look really good to me. in the cues now, the charts look really good in the spiders. the different types of charting that I do, trying to kind of create a composite picture.

15:26 It all looks those look good to me. those three and those are you know basically right your leaders and the whole main the main in index ETF for the stock market for most people spy so that all looks good but we all know it's very concentrated we all know that and the reason we know that is because well there's about I don't know a countless number practically of posts on vin twit as they used to call it regarding how just how destructive everything has been but We know that too from our sector views. You know, there's a lot more you can do than what we do, of course, but the video already runs long anyway. Just trying to convey some thoughts that maybe could help some folks out during the week ahead.

16:13 but anyway, this here, right, you've got a little bit of improvement here and there, but that's after kind of some worsening, right? So things got even worse, right? they were I was calling them sufficiently bombed out which I would stick by in terms of that and market breath but of course we know that even bombed out stuff can get further bombed out right it's just that I think there was enough there for bulls to work with it had a little bit more to run I don't know if people just closed out the third quarter it got got out of some cruddy stuff they were holding and then they want to start the fourth quarter as fresh as a daisy I don't know. that could be the case, you know, that there were some people that just said the hell with this. I'm done with this this junk. I'm moving into this. And that's so you kind of got that end of quarter wash out and now you start a new quarter and you at least show a little bit of life and maybe new money coming in as people often say in the early part of the month, so on and so forth. But really, this picture did get worse. Then it got better towards the end of the week, much like the Q's and the spiders where they weren't really fairing all that well early on and then they kind of regrouped and got their act together. there was further weakness in financials and you know it would be great if this was a better trader. you know, but it's a t it's not really a big mover, but this thing to me, you know, this is a big deal to me if this is this could be a sign, right? If this can't really get its mojo back, get back above that key white support line right there that I'm not even going to bother zooming out on. But if it if it can't do that and they're trying just to run tech and this thing remains weak and rolls over and you just get another another kind of symmetrical deadcat in transports.

18:10 you know these are not good signs because a lot of this other stuff is bad. Real estate just continues to get lamped. I guess main I would have to attribute that mainly to right the ramp the ramp this is getting lamp but you know rates ramped you know so it's almost like a really strong inverse there I would say it's very strong inverse there relationship and so anyway that you know that's not voting well like I know that it's forgotten about now and you don't want to get your thoughts thoughts about important things like the real estate market and interest rates. You don't want to let them get in the way of stocks going higher. But ultimately, right, this the housing market is a huge factor or historically has been a huge factor in the US economy and that's looking rough, right? You've got mortgage rates. let's bring this over. You've got mortgage rates. Uhoh.

19:17 It doesn't like it that doesn't like that. Let me get rid of this. We don't need the sectors anymore. And I'm not going to really be talking about them much. But you know, here's here's mortgage rates. right. And probably right after what we saw lately, like it's there's chances of them going down doesn't look very good. And you've got to go back really at this level. You're going back, you know, towards 25 years ago type rates, you know. So, when you factor in just how pricey homes are in many cases, courtesy of our friends at the Fed and the government, it's what they've done. the fact that incomes have not kept up even remotely and a lot of people have just given up frankly. But anyway, you add it all together, I'm just not so sure that's very healthy, right? I'm not so sure that's very healthy and that could be a big problem. I I kind of frankly I don't know how it isn't a problem but you know this AI trade the the the capex the whole the whole thing it might just paper over it enough and it won't matter simply because of the math and the weights of all these essentially right super companies on steroids for to to use compound cliches but here's your sentiment which again we said Right.

20:44 Last week we thought this really deep strong bare reading and deep bullish reading where it wasn't bullish at all. These were six month kind of high and low marks. We thought that could possibly mark the bottom and so the things are trending up from there. So maybe this marks the bottom of sentiment and then we start getting better and better and you know it's basically this will track this will track the market right. So more if we start doing better the bears will fall the bulls will rise right that's just the way it is you know the sentiment follows price a lot not always but a lot so that's typical you're still down here right despite everything getting a little better so are you you know look look where you were yesterday in this again I always point it out but in this sort of faulty indicator maybe not the greatest thing but still you've been down there, you know, and is it is it as crushed as it was, you know, earlier this year? No, it isn't. This particular measure, the CNN fear greed index is not, but other things are just as crushed or more crush crushed. So, it really depends on what you want to look at. While we are here, the job situation did that I think came out, what was that earlier today? I think that put the the tampering basically created a tampering effect on the possibility for a raise later this month. So now that has shifted things which is helpful. and now you're looking at the delay all the way out till deck in terms of getting that pop in rates higher from where we are right now to about 25 basis points greater. So that is probably a good thing. Although right it's I don't think it's encouraging that we're we are where we are. I may as well cover this now since I'm here really quick. Just a reminder that if you want to go go to looks like a a cool thing. I don't I'm not heading there, but there's a lot of cool stuff from what I understand planned for this at Circa.

23:09 I guess it's got this really incredible pool and there's going to be some sort of a Monday night football element to it. I don't know if John and Pete as exNFL guys are doing any announcing or anything. That would be cool. Especially I know Pete it's a passion of his. He he's so he's still big into all that. So that would be cool if they did but I don't know if they are. but anyway I just wanted to mention that and I will mention this again. this is probably more a lot of sort of different stuff from different folks that related to different even different types of investing and trading. This is more related to intensive stuff from Bill and Stu. I've mentioned it before. You know, Bill was a partner. He's a friend.

23:59 Stu's a friend. I knew I I met I should say I've known Stu really since the early 90s, you know, when he was on the Philly floor and I arrived. He'd been there for a while before me, but these guys have a ton of experience. it's the kind of thing where if you want to get deep into stuff, get intense on things for a couple days, get your questions answered, you know, really kind of get deep into things. It's near Philly. that's a great time of the year. It can be a great time of the year near Philly. Having grown up not far from there out out in PA where this is being held, this there's a lot of Revolutionary War and just old school stuff. It's pretty cool out there. So, probably some nice I would think there's some maybe foliage factor as well. So, that would be cool in that regard. So, anyway, that is now something I've covered. So, let's move on to the bre market breath because we may as well address that, get that over with, and then we can just talk about the the major charts. But I'm just going to note probably going to stick with what I did last week and I don't really want to get fine points finer points but we got even worse right we noted last week that we were down getting down there in some of these things and in terms of the number of stocks trading above there are certain SMAs right you've got your 50 you've got your 100 you've got your 200 00 and has it been worse? Yes, it has been worse, but it's still pretty rough overall. Pretty rough stuff there. But I think this Mlelen is really the rough part, right? Because if you go back and look, if you're looking for a reason to be bullish, on the charts, you know, to me, this remains the reason to be bullish. not yet. I am not a just I am not a a dip buyer where things hey look it's dropped so far I'm buying. I like to I like to do it where I've started to see that turn. They're showing some hint of there's some hint of of a turn, right? Not just you I'm anticipating one and nothing there's no signs of it. So I don't want to mean I don't mean it that way. I'm not saying don't buy dips either. I'm saying I like to wait for the slight at least a slight hint there's been a momentum shift back up before I start just getting aggressive. Let's put it that way. But excuse me. Usually what happens for me with my responsibilities is that I'm waiting for that. I start seeing it happen and then the market starts erupting and I've got to handle all this stuff before I can get to it, trade it myself. But here, I mean, this is a this is a real dip. If you want to talk about a dip, this is a pretty darn big dip in the MLEN summation index. So, you got to go back to right to get something deeper than where we are.

27:02 You've got to go back to here, which is it looks like that is 23. You're in late O, early dove of 23. And what I'll do now is I'll bring that up. I shall endeavor to bring that up on the price chart of the spy. Let's see if it lets me do that now. Think your swim is getting a little funky on me here. It's probably my fault for having having like, you know, hundreds of tabs open like an idiot.

27:38 but anyway, right here, you know, that's basically your your Mlen Nadier, right? Right about there is your Mlen. So, would you have liked to have bought there? So, that's just about right where you are. It does get worse, of course. There's another terrible reading over here, but I feel like you would all probably like to have bought on that day right there. So, that just gives you an idea. So, this is one of the I hate to say this cuz this indicator and similar things like it that I've come across online and also on other charts.

28:20 these are the reasons why combined with where's my slide? Combined with everything I came close to table pounding last week, right? because you've got I think I have it down here. So yeah, it's this line right here. So here's the question of the week, right? We've got this presidential election cycle sweet spot for 15 months. By far and away the best stretch of the cycle, right? Year three of the cycle is the best year significantly that is has just commenced right as of yesterday. you've got this incredible wall of worry which I think you know is not fantasy. I mean it's there's some pretty serious stuff out there. especially right for me interest rates you know debt servicing a freeze up in the housing market supposedly all these important things everything that makes autos more expense more expensive to finance all these different things. Then you've got terrible sentiment, right? Where the sentiment's just coming off the worst that it's been in months. So that's these are all contrarian, right? So just just to be clear, except for the first one. then you've got the subsurface destruction. This is really substantial.

29:40 We saw it in how bad the sectors were battered. We saw it how in in in market breath, right? So this to me is the perfect setup combined with the perfect timing for bulls. So why the reluctance, right? Why why did we not start doing better yesterday? Why did we sort of have end with this sort of you know kind of like lukewarm slightly bearish candle in SMH and the Q's and even the spies to a degree too and in other words like the things we were looking mainly at lead leadership for why you know that's that's where we are. So maybe it's going to take a little longer.

30:17 Maybe they're looking for an allcle from from Trump or something like that. I don't know. Maybe they're waiting for rates to reverse lower. and then when rates finally plunge quickly, then they'll ignite. You know, I I can't say what it is. I don't know. It could just be left field news, out so-called out of the blue news, same thing. It could be GOP. I don't know. you know, I'm I just don't even have the time, nor the resources, nor the contacts. So, anyway, you get the idea. So, I don't know what it is, but there's a reluctance out there. and it could just be them realizing there's too many people ready to jump on board with them. They've got to shake them out with a false breakout back and fill, find support, reverse back up after they just chased a bunch of people out, reverse back up quickly, leave them, right, grasping at air.

31:13 That's that's all I can think of. I mean, in terms of like my reluctance theories. while we're down here, we'll take we'll take care of long-term bull market is intact. I changed this, right? The spies and all that are ready to go. We're ready to season. So, I went from ERA, you know, flip-flop. I went to ERA, wait, watch, we act, manage, right? So, we we are going to wait around. Let's see what this market does. We have to wait anyway. It's the weekend. watch what's going on. We'll we'll react to it. or we will act on it, right? And then we'll manage it because I don't really have an answer for you right now. I don't I can't say, "Yeah, this thing's about to go just just buy." You know, I know there's a lot of people out there that do that, but for short-term trading, you know, days and weeks, you can't really do that because sometimes you you know, you're you're going to get really chopped up. And I'm not so sure this was enough. So there could definitely be a little bit of a gap fill and as many of you know I believe that gap fills are going to happen within four to five sessions of the gap occurring itself. So basically by the end of next week I would think this gap will fill in the cues maybe an SMH and if and by then it's most likely to fill then and if it doesn't fill then you probably really are off to the races. you know that where they're going to if they do start moving things up that's telling you it's more or less a breakaway gap and forget about the immediate gap fill and don't fight it. so I think there still should be a squeeze right in the face of everything. like I said it may need to back and fill. and again, I'm going to stick with yields and diesel be damned because they certainly haven't gotten any better. And they're pretty it's pretty bad.

33:03 While I'm while I'm down on this part of the slide, I took I still have small positions in precious metal stocks, which with the dollar rising did not did not do well, but I'm just holding on to them because that's what I like to do. I like to hold on to that stuff at times. And then I took some small longs in some tech names. And I do mean small because I was very busy. So I wanted to add that there's really been a strong strong call side push where there's been a lot of buying of calls in just a lot of different names. It's spread out.

33:38 it's not really not really, you know, sector let's say dominant, you know, that's it's it's this that and the other thing. So let me see. let's get our main chart here. But yeah, so that's that is sort of that. let's since this is an important sector and we have probably don't need retracements right now. What I'll do is start looking at you know where could this SMH go to. aside from the obvious, right? Right. I think the obvious is going to be somewhere up between let's say around 6 we'll say around 6506ish right up to there. So that's a really wide you know that's about 2% of the stock price wide from there to there.

34:28 But that's the band right you probably shoot for as your target since it puts you close to the high as well. And then I'm just going to put some extensions beyond that because this is something to watch. But you've got all your SMAs beneath here, right? So that's not even a problem to find levels of. I would add 599 as a sort of a flat 599600 range as a flat, but otherwise you've got a bunch of SMA levels all over here if you want to just pause and check them out.

34:59 But this is important. Oops. I'm getting a My monitors have been on so long. It's the third auto off that I got hit with today. I don't even know. I don't even know if that shows up on the video, but it may or may not. Might might. It might not at all, though. It's not really part of the PC. I don't know. Let me see. Oh, that's I grabbed the wrong thing. I did my usual thinker swim. I've been working I I've been working mainly on my bad.

35:28 where's my clear? I'll just Why is it not letting me click on that one? All right, I got to switch out of that. You have my apologies. I guess I'm getting getting wiped out here with energy without a break. let's see. There's my extension. Okay, there you go. I won't ballpark this to the penny to save time. So we can look at some other things, but I think this is right there. So you have this SMH. So interestingly, right, that's 660ish, 656, 660 puts you right there, which I think 661, you know, is a probably a decent level to go with 6701 172 and then 656, but that's your 100. you could see the others beyond there. Right?

36:19 There's I think that that that fib extension's pretty close there. So that that's what you're working with if you want if you're willing to buy into that particular extension that I drew. So that gives you some upside levels if we do work our way up. I rattled some of them off verbally, but at least at least we covered them. Now, let's cover I I'm going to just kind of let go on IWM and the the diamonds. I think we're just going to talk about spiders and Q's because right now, right, the leaders are if you're if we do get the bullish surge, it would be a real flip-flop. I'm not saying there can't be some comeback in IWM, especially if rates are dropping off. All I'm saying is that Oh, we already have that in there, so I don't even need to. So, yeah. So, we already have our fibs. I just have to reposition so everybody can see it better. Cover some other levels in here.

37:21 But, you fibs are already there. So, that's we did. We I think we redid those last week. yeah, and so we got to the 50 there. We modeed that last week. Dipped here. They've got it trying to go back up here. and you could see where it gets you to. So really, right, you're you're 61.8 extension is really very close, right? You're talking about less than I guess $2, right? So what am I saying? You're talk Well, it's a little bit more little bit more than a dollar. So really that's very close. You know, you may as well just call it 780. especially if you're Greg McDermott and you like to focus on the big round numbers, which you're probably right to do and always cheat in front of it if you're me, you always offer in front of 780. But you get the idea. So that's one. The next one, shockingly, is about 1% higher roughly. then ultimately, as we've been saying, 800. So you've got the levels there if they blast this thing off. Now on the downside, I think you're just going to go back to let's see what we got to do with your SMAs are very clear. Your 10 is right there at 768.

38:30 The 15's there at 765. Why is the 20 not showing up in blue right there? So 765 is big with both of those right there. 50 is 764 rounded. So you know that's the zone probably right. You fall below that 50. Yes, you could say well what about all those wicks? Aren't they just sorry two wicks at least? Aren't they right there at 762? Yeah, they are. So, you can't rule that out. But really, you start I would start worrying below the 50.

39:02 you don't panic because you know that they love to dip below and rip back above. That's very common. But it does definitely you know with another sort of low if they were just to immediately start selling off another lower high here after this higher high here versus this and failure to take this one out. kind of a fake out there. again kind of closed here with this bearish relatively bearish candle and despite you know the fact that it was an up day. So you've got the gap closure potential there. you come back to the levels we've already discussed with the SMAs. And then I think your biggest level that you don't want to crack is really that 760ish that we've been talking about there in purple. Former high right below right right around 760 because that means you're now cracking a former high that was held for a while and you're cracking below the rising 100. I'm sorry. You're clacking below the rising 50 which probably opens you up to the a visit to the 100 like it did here. So that's that white line right there. So, I mean, if I will add levels if anyone needs help in the forums, of course, just ask. if you're trading this and you want to know what the heck happens if we get below 750, where this thing bottomed out last time, but I would add probably in here, you know, between 100 and, you know, those are your levels, honestly. 754 and then 750 rounded. That's it. Get below there, then you got to you got to come check with me in the forums. let's see.

40:40 Q's. we talked about SMA, so let's talk about Q's. And yeah, we can leave our fibs there. I forgot we have the FIBs there from last week. So, we're looking at seven. We're looking a little bit more of a push. That would be about what, a percent from here. So, yeah, about 1% up from where we closed is our first 50% level. Then you've got this level above there that we think we're going to go to. this is that sort of within this within this sort of flagging situation we kind of highlighted this other lagging situation and talked about the inverted head and shoulders and how compound I guess and that we should you know potentially go and if they do it could be very powerful as a result of the height of this whole package and it could still be but yeah I think you might right you may have to and it's not the end of the world too. I mean, if it does back and fill a little bit and then they just kind of have an ugly Monday, maybe an ugly Tuesday morning and then they start to lift and go, that's not that bad, right? It gets rid of that overboughtness and gets rid of the gap that makes a lot of people feel better about things and then you maybe get, you know, people chased out, get bought too aggressively and held and then, you know, it could be a turn and burn again depending on news. But that's what I really think. I think that you're I think you're in a situation where let's take a look at we talked about bags. Let's talk about MTUM.

42:14 And you can see how well that did. We talked about that one last week and here and there we've been talking about that and that's acting, you know, a lot like the other names we focused on here. And then the other one would be DRAM and that stagnated. So that was definitely stagnant. So there were I I saw there was some news on different names and things like that. but that's really it. I don't think there's anything any particular name I I could focus on. We did have some paper in semis this week. we had Nvidia. we had LRCX was a really nice performer. I don't know if it was an easy triggering but it really jammed and that one showed up. STM came in late in the week and I put this in and kind of not noted that it's for breakaway gap buyers right basically right if you want to be a true believer that this is a breakout and the market itself is doing it and other you know the tech tech is going there were some other players in there buying you know buying calls in that one I can't think of them all we had yeah we just we we had more of a fanning out I would say of a week in in in UOA land. It wasn't everything's everything's you know concentrated into your mags or your semis or just tech in general. It was definitely a lot of different things. And as I said, at the end of the very end of the day, they came in for Oxy calls and they came in for CVX calls, too. So, I put them out as updates because I knew I had didn't have enough time to, compose a full idea on them, even a skeletal or bare bones one. I just couldn't get it together in time. So, I got them out there just so folks would hopefully be able to glimpse at it that are experienced because the service I'm referring to is one of the one one of the services for more experienced YOA traders. But anyway, we got that out there. So, that might those two might be worth watching. There was so much activity that you know, I had very busy days. I I I really wasn't thrilled with where the paper was appearing and some of the paper on bear on the bare side which wasn't all that heavy but I wanted to get a few bears in again mainly because of the news I couldn't really I I felt like that paper showed up like this has nothing to do with our guys you know or the service itself it's just hey that's when the that's when someone's playing the game you know that's that's which is a a good thing good factor if you ask me when it comes to EOA because when they're playing the game when they finally decide to do something or you quickly decide to do something that's that can really matter, you know, put you it can put you into names that you're really not focused on.

45:17 So, I want to make sure that I covered this stuff. So, yeah, I went with the Douglas Ser melodrama too, not starring Freddy Mercury because rates did start mattering a little bit this week. but the the melodrama we talked about still there, which is why this looks very similar. so I think we talked about the jobs. we talked about this stuff here. the market being hardest to trade. we did get more bearishness, but you know that that could be good. the fact that we got even worse in the sectors and we got even worse in the in the market breath. So, it's the same thing as last week. This one here, I would say, look, this is still an art form. I'm skipping all those tabs I referred to, but basically people are slicing and dicing the subsurface destruction every which way to Sunday. That's what's been I've been finding like they're like, "Damn, this is really bad." You know, look at this. Look at that. It's been And there's probably at least a dozen dozen and a half, maybe two dozen, I don't even know. But a lot of things that were just strikingly bad and I'm like, damn, this is pretty bad. So, we know that we talked about the resilience. We still have this stuff. I think this is it. I I I hate to say this because I don't there's nothing I can nothing I can help with there on news. I I feel like there's news or different news stories that are going to determine what happens here. If we get the typical whoosh higher or you know we get just a sudden rug pull that would probably shock a lot of permables that had are you know pretty much already like ready to pop their champagne because it's just because the the calendar flipped to October so in this year. So anyway, I'm just mentioning that. I would you all know this one. I would not rule this out. I just said that in a different way. this one. Yeah, I mean I think you got dead cats in some of these sectors. but there, as I said, I mentioned the UOA comments right there.

47:20 so the timing window and they're buying the hype in terms of like, you know, hey, we're about to get this sweet spot and let's and there they seem to be saying, okay, we're doing it. talked about that. I still think it could be become very quickly become wild and woolly on news in this market. again, this is relatively grim. Is it bullish regrim? We will only know as in time. we talked about that one. Slight modification to that line. Yeah, I mean, we talked about the quarter century ago.

47:51 Volatility products, everyone's whistling past. No worries, man. I guess still are many unhedged longs. so, the cash on the sidelines thing, that's also was potentially debunked by some people this week with some of their content. They're like, look, everybody's everybody's in, the market and the the public is just bought the dip like there's no tomorrow. And then I saw sort of other people saying, oh, I don't think that's the case. So, it's very hard because again, you got to spend a little time on it and that's a precious commodity for me. so we talked about this one. That's just a redux. I think what I did here was just add the housing market because that's becoming a big deal. And you know that's about 70% of the economy supposedly or it was before before we decided to data center our way to prosperity. but that's what's happening. this whole thing here is just about, you know, emphasizing where we are in terms of timing and so on and so forth. last week's question, this week's question, we covered we talked about this already and so yeah, we're all we're all good on that. So, I did all the reminders for everybody, so you you all know that as well. So, yeah, I I think you're tilting a little better because you managed to, you know, make a new high in the cues and the the spiders were within 1% and you weathered yet another storm. but I don't think it's, you know, something I'd brag about. I still think it feels pretty rough right now and I yet I feel like the table is just completely set with fine China and crystal for bulls to do their thing. So I if they're if they're going to just ignore it, the wall of worry is just going to sit there and be mocked and bulls are going to run it. they've got really I I would I if I'm a bull I love the idea that everything's crushed beneath the surface and that you know the market is still held up and you know those all a lot of those stocks can start making comebacks and they can start to you start to to join join the tech SMH mags type party if they're to have one you know so if they really do get it going usually right things fan out after they do and people start looking around for leftovers once there's been a real push from some leaders and they'll say hey this hasn't done anything and then you kind of get this technical stretch between your best stocks and some of your left behinds or also rans and then those things start to pick up the pace you know that's I love that as a matter of fact because that's usually a great time for a UOA because I think a lot of players are like okay this didn't run, what didn't run, you know, they're kind of like looking around. You can almost hear them what what hasn't ran, what hasn't ran, you know, and then they they start positioning themselves in there. So, and then often they're right and those things at least do start putting together some sort of a bounce at the very least, which is, you know, good for EOA traders. But yeah, hardest market to trade u this century according to some, not just on their opinions, but on metrics. So again, if you're hanging in there, it has been a very hard market. this is the worst year, I believe, of the presidential election cycle. So, we're doing better than I think we're doing better than usual, which is encouraging. but I think the wall of worry is literally and legitimately more worrisome than is often the case even when people are calling it a wall of worry. You know, when they're saying, "Hey, there's this we have this wall of worry." But I think to me it's it's pretty it's pretty rough because I I don't know which way that Iran situation can go. I don't know if it it gets worse and intensifies and then you've got you know even more it drags out even more impacts things even more or it ends abruptly and that shocks the hell out of people and then of course the squeeze would start probably instantly you know or maybe even ahead of time if you know what I mean. So, on that note, I'm going to end it though. That's just, it is very very very We talked about rates and we talked about regrets, right? Are is there go are there going to We didn't talk about regrets. We got rates and reluctance. I meant to say talked about reluctance. Reluctance to go, but are there going to be regrets, right? That you've got all these people having bailed out of this market and are they still going to pull it off despite everything, right? So, everyone will be like, "Wait a minute, there's so many problems. How are we how are we powering up to I don't know, let's say 800 on on the cues and who knows, maybe 810 or something like that on the spiders, you know. it could be one of those things and people will probably be dumbfounded, which I get, you know, I really do get. But you just got to separate you know those takes from what you do in trading and you base it on the momentum and the action I think right just get away from that and just say like is it working or not and how much is working to what extent's it working how long is it worked is are we too have we worked for too long are we too stretched those types of questions help a lot more for trading rather than identifying the macro and you know trying to apply macro for a couple hours, a couple days or a couple weeks, which it takes a while for macro to to matter, you know, at times. So, on that note, we're wrapping it up. I'm going to wish everyone a great weekend, safe weekend, healthy weekend. I hope something that I shared with you in this video helps you out in this upcoming week or some week in the future.

53:43 everyone, take care and thanks for tuning in.