Transcript
0:00 First of all, I don't do the same thing with the stock market. One thing I will say is this is the first time in that quote unquote four-year cycle that stocks are going higher at the same time that Bitcoin's going down. And I don't know whether that's good or bad. My whole belief has been that the only time that crypto can go through the growth that I believe it will go through, which is the transfer of wealth from the fiat system into the crypto side, or at least a merging of the two, that was the whole reason why I focused on AI and focused on crypto. for that to occur, you need to run to a point where, believe it or not, they have to be uncorrelated to some degree. And I think we're at that phase now. So that's the positive side.
0:36 The negative side is, and again, the thing that has always protected me in life, we all have views on assets, we all have views, and we're all wrong at some period of time. Bitcoin appears to be moving through a transition phase where volatility and sell the news behavior are temporarily overshadowing any clear directional trend. Jordi Visser notes that what stands out in the current cycle is the unusual divergence between equities and crypto stocks continue to grind higher while Bitcoin has softened. Rather than treating this as a standard 4-year cycle pattern, he sees it as a possible shift in how these markets interact, potentially signaling a period of adjustment before a more sustained move develops. In his view, meaningful crypto expansion doesn't typically begin with momentum chasing, but with a slower process of rebalancing where price action stabilizes, supply and demand find equilibrium, and the market begins to rebuild structure. He places particular emphasis on long-term technical markers like the 200E moving average, which he treats as a kind of structural line of gravity for Bitcoin's broader cycle behavior. until price action reclaims that kind of level with conviction. He prefers patience over prediction. Even within that framework, his positioning is selective. He maintains long-term exposure to Bitcoin, actively trades related equity proxies such as Micro Strategy, and continues accumulating Ethereum during drawdowns, treating weakness not as a breakdown signal, but as a staged entry opportunity. If you found value in this breakdown, please hit the like button, subscribe, and share it with other investors who are paying close attention. We're here to keep bringing you sharp analysis and voices that understand what's unfolding. Thanks for watching. Again, um first of all, I don't do the same thing with the stock market. One thing I will say is this is the first time in that quote unquote four-year cycle that stocks are going higher at the same time that Bitcoin's going down. And I don't know whether that's good or bad. My whole belief has been that the only time that crypto can go through the growth that I believe it will go through, which is the transfer of wealth from the fiat system into the crypto side, or at least a merging of the two. That was the whole reason why I focused on AI and focused on crypto. For that to occur, you need to run to a point where, believe it or not, they have to be uncorrelated to some degree.
2:57 And I think we're at that phase now. So that's the positive side. The negative side is and again the thing that has always protected me in life. We all have views on assets. We all have views and we're all wrong at some period of time. I don't want to get heavily involved with playing Bitcoin or any crypto stuff on the upside until someone else is doing it. I'm not a momentum investor, but at this point, we're not talking about momentum. It's down 50%. So, let it start to base. Let it look like supply and demand have met a place where it's positive and then let it break a long-term moving average. There was something um this week about Charlie Munger uh talking about if I could just have one thing in hindsight, it was the fact that find good companies that you believe in long term that get back to their 200E moving average. That's the way I'm focused on Bitcoin. I don't remember where the 200WE moving average is, but the 200WE moving average is a really important thing. And again, if you lock it in to what you said, what is the 200WE moving average? Well, that's kind of a fouryear moving average. So, if the four-year cycle is this, it's fine. I've done a couple interviews in the past week, and I just want to say this to everyone. Um, I believe that the IPOs that are coming, what Google did this past week, which I'm sure we'll talk about all of these, but I think these are a sign of something important.
4:16 It's not a stock market bubble to me, but it is a sign that people need a lot of capital right now for what is happening with inside the AI world. And that's an important story. On the flip side, with what's going on with crypto, I think if you would have looked in hindsight for a what would be a sell the news event, very similar to what I think might be happening in the hardware side for the time being, an ETF launch, we're still above where we were trading at the ETF launch. Number two, the US government basically decides that crypto is good and the president of the United States says okay and he launches a memecoin. If you would have taken those events which basically occurred in 24 and 25 and said what would that be?
4:56 Well, that would be a sell a new sell the news event and yet Bitcoin went higher into those. But I think if you look at it and you go back to how many OGs have been selling and what's been going on, I do think there's been churn that's been happening now since 2024. So, for people that are looking for hope, until the charts start giving you hope and you get a it going higher on bad news type thing, I'm not going to get too into it. I'll still stick with the the the the main thing I said, which is we right now have three-month rates that are below inflation.
5:27 Just wait for the next trend higher in Bitcoin. And I think this will be the one that gets very important. Bitcoin is increasingly being viewed less as a standalone asset and more as the core index of a broader crypto ecosystem. one that's being shaped by network effects and the accelerating influence of AI on economic systems. Jordi Visser argues that he continues to accumulate Bitcoin while treating Ethereum less as a single direction bet and more as exposure to the wider ecosystem itself. His core observation is that the crypto market, even when broken down into a diversified basket of tokens and related public equities, still tends to behave like a single aggregate index and that index is effectively Bitcoin. That's why he refers to Bitcoin as the SNP500 of crypto. It functions as the dominant benchmark, the pricing anchor, and the reference point that the rest of the system orbits around. He takes the analogy further by comparing crypto assets to equities in a deeper sense.
6:26 Both represent collections of ideas, narratives, and innovations competing for relevance. But unlike traditional cycles, he suggests crypto is operating in an environment where AI may rapidly compress the lifespan of individual projects. As a result, what persists is less about any single token or company and more about the strongest networks and standards that survive iteration after iteration. In that framing, Bitcoin stands out not because it wins every narrative, but because it increasingly acts as the structural constant, the asset the rest of the ecosystem measures itself against. Let's get back to the interview. I I know this is going to um not be the answer people want want to hear, but um there's a reason why all of my eggs are not in one basket.
7:14 >> I have plenty of things. So does everyone who's investing own things that are probably going to zero. And everyone might sit there and say, "No, that's not true. If you own the S&P 500, trust me, you own some things that are going to zero." Bitcoin is not everything in my life. So I believe on where crypto is going to go. I have plenty things in my portfolio that I'm going to own forever. I really do. Uh, do I think Bitcoin might go to zero? Sure. It's part of the distribution of outcomes. Do I think quantum is going to do it? Do I think it I think it's a very low probability. So again, everything in my mind is always based on what my father taught me, which is what do I think the upside is versus what do I think the downside is? And then what percentage of the bets do I want it to be? It's not everything for me. So if people are sitting there and they have 100% of their wealth in Bitcoin, I think that's very stupid. if they have less than 1%. I think that's very stupid. I believe that it should be at this point in everyone's portfolio at least 2 to 3% regardless of what they believe in. Well, I'm buying Bitcoin as well. Um I the Ethereum thing again is more of a uh an ecosystem thing at this point. I I really am betting that the network effects are going to be the big story for next year, for the next 12 months. I think Bitcoin is going to be a participant in this whole situation. I don't know if you saw I I sent you something. So I am working on having a weekly YouTube that is specifically geared towards crypto. Now to do that I want to convert for the traditional finance crowd how they can look at the crypto ecosystem in the same way they look at the S&P 500 which means some sort of sectors or themes with inside.
8:50 And so for me Ethereum is a better proxy for that in terms of I want to bet on the ecosystem. I'm not going to bet solely on Bitcoin. But the reality is when I create an equal weight of 40 separate companies, 34 of them being cryptocurrencies or tokens, six of them being public stocks, all as one index, very similar to my uh Agentic thematic portfolio. Magically, it's extremely correlated to Bitcoin. Even when you don't include Bitcoin in it. So, for me, that means that the ecosystem is acting the way I think it should. It also means that Bitcoin is what I think it is, which is the S&P 500 of the crypto world. So, at some point, >> the king, >> it's it's the S&P 500. It's the only thing that lasts at the end of time. And I don't know if we've talked about it. I don't believe any idea or innovation in the history of mankind has ever lasted.
9:38 There's always a new thing that's better. There's always a new way of doing something that's different. Well, that is what stocks are. That is what tokens are. They're ideas. They're innovations by human beings. And if AI is now going to be creating all of the ideas, that means they're not going to be around that long. there'll be something better that comes up. You're going to start seeing this far more rapidly. That's why when people say, "Well, what's the bare case on memory?"
9:57 I went, "Very easily." You think human beings are going to solve the memory side. I don't. I think algorithms are going to solve the memory side. When is that going to happen? I don't know. But within 5 years, I know it will in my head. So, when Goldman Sachs says 5 years from now, we'll be at this. I'm like, I don't really care. That's why I stick myself in the AI world. So, I I just think for this whole thing when people really think about crypto and they really think about this, you have to make a decision on whether you believe still in the long-term story.
10:22 And if you don't, you should be out. If you still believe in the long-term story, then it's a gift that you're getting to put things down here. I'm not only buying for me. I mentioned to you early on when we started doing this that I have strategic Bitcoin reserves for my kids. This is a blessing to me. My business is growing and I'm able to put more of the profits that I have back into Bitcoin for my kids. So, if it doesn't work out, sorry guys, you guys lost out. If it does work out the way I think it will, they're going to be very, very happy in a few years.
10:47 >> Bitcoin is increasingly seen as the core benchmark of the crypto market, acting more like an index than a standalone speculative asset as AIdriven change accelerates innovation cycles. Individual crypto projects appear less durable than dominant networks that can survive repeated shifts in narratives and technology. In this environment, Bitcoin's importance lies less in short-term price moves and more in its role as the central reference point that shapes valuation, capital flows, and comparisons across the entire digital asset ecosystem. If Bitcoin increasingly acts as the benchmark for the entire crypto ecosystem, what conditions would need to change for another asset or network to challenge that dominant role?
11:32 So stay tuned for clear datadriven insights into the financial system. Don't forget to like and subscribe so you never miss our weekly updates. Thank you for your continued support and we hope you enjoy the video.