Damn it, Jensen! | TCAF 268

0:00 Dude, I just got back from Notre Dame, man. >> I know. What was that like, >> dude? It was crazy. >> Yeah. >> Like, now I understand. Like, I've never been a Notre Dame fan or a Miami fan, obviously. >> >> you understand the like how special the place is? >> Yeah. >> Okay. Where do you Did you get Airbnb or >> Dude, I stayed at the Amish Inn >> in Napony, Indiana. >> What the hell is that?

0:24 >> Ex. It was awesome, though. >> Okay, >> dude. I had never been to Indiana. You guys ever go to Indiana? >> No. Yeah. I got kicked out of the college twice. Yeah. So, I've been there a few times. >> He went he he went and left. Wait, what? Who did you go with? >> My dad. >> Okay. Was he like was he excited? >> Yeah. I mean, listen, my dad's like old school football fan from like the 60s.

0:42 Like even before the Dolphins and the Hurricanes, it was Notre Dame and Green Bay, right? So, like bucket list items like, you know, going to Lambo. We went to Lambo like seven, eight years ago. That was sick. >> Sick. >> Your dad must have been in his 30s for Catholics versus Convicts. Yeah, man. Right. >> 80s. Yeah, sure. >> It was late 80s. >> It was all of the 80s. >> All of the 80s. Yeah. >> Yeah.

1:06 >> So, all right. So, I know you didn't like the way the game ended, but it was a good game. >> Listen, it was a great game. The experience was awesome. shout out to Jay Hayes, a defensive tackle who played there, who got a golf cart and was like driving us around campus. Yeah. >> And he wasn't dressed like an ND gear, even though he played football there. He was dressed like a normal person. So it actually looked like a bunch of hurricane fans stole a golf cart and were just like cruising around >> like that's what and people thought that that's what it was and it was I mean could have very plausible but that's not what happened.

1:35 >> dude it honestly it was so impressive. I am you know have so much respect. I mean I would say before this weekend I didn't give a about Notre Dame. I didn't care about the people. I didn't care about nothing. >> Right. The you or go home. >> Yeah. >> But I got to tell you it was it was actually you know really really impressed. >> Where is the school from Indianapolis? Like how far? >> Far. Couldn't be farther. It's all the way north. It's all the way north.

1:56 >> Almost in Chicago. >> It's It's east of Chicago. It's almost in Michigan. >> Yeah. >> Like it's You're like I don't know 20 minutes from Michigan maybe. I don't know. Something like that. Probably pretty close. >> All right. >> We didn't go that way so I can't tell you. But we also went to >> and the Kane the Canes don't have their best wide receiver or for that game like >> and they still should have won on the road at night.

2:16 >> Yeah. >> Where else did you go? >> We went to Gary, Indiana. >> Michael Jack. Michael Jackson. >> We went to Michael Jackson's house. that's not a nice place. >> No, >> no, no. >> I wouldn't I wouldn't recommend it. >> But why did you do it? Just to see the house? >> it was on the way from Chicago to Notre Dame. So, it's like you want to swing by Michael Jackson's house on the way. It's like Yeah.

2:37 >> Is it like a tourist attraction? >> Yeah. There's like there were like like maybe two or three other cars doing the same thing as us, >> right? >> You know, taking pictures and getting the hell out of there. >> I watched the Michael Jackson movie on a flight recently. And >> the I thought the actor they found to play Michael was great. >> It's his nephew. >> The actor they found. >> Is it? >> Yeah, >> it is.

2:56 >> It's his nephew. >> Oh, that makes so much sense now. How did you know that? Does everyone know that? >> That's very funny. >> No, I had no idea. Does everyone know that? >> Whole time. >> This whole time. >> I thought the actor was good. I think thought the movie was pointless. >> I have negative interest in that movie. >> Well, I I just don't almost don't understand what why are we doing this? Like it's so obvious that anyone seeing that movie knows the full story. Why are we telling half the story?

3:20 >> Well, because the family owned it or was involved. They they had to sign up. >> I mean, I I guess I I guess why did I watch it is the is the real question. >> Anyway, Michael Jackson's house is is nice. You know, it was right across the street from a high school. It's like a real ghost town. Like, if you're ever interested in seeing a ghost town, Gary, Indiana is a good one. >> That's enough of Michael Jackson. What else we got?

3:38 >> Let me let me explain to you. I'm going to St. Barts. I'm not I'm not going to see Michael Jackson's house. >> It was on the way right now. >> It was on the way >> and I and I just found out the hotel I booked changed ownership and now I'm in a a panic. >> It was >> talk about first world problems. >> It was a Rosewood and now it's something called Orels and apparently this is like some French luxury brand that I'm supposed to know about and I don't.

4:02 >> So Gary Indiana is so far. >> Everyone used to know this guy. I feel like I >> JC knows that I've always been I've always been this sort of a monster. He know he knows this. >> Yeah. Gary in the probably doesn't look like St. Barts. >> You probably know me better and for longer than most people that are in my life today. >> Yeah. >> And you could tell Michael that I've not really changed at all.

4:23 >> No. Pretty much. >> In fact, you know what? What makes >> No, no, no. In fact, what makes you great is that you are yourself. >> Yes. >> Like we were just talking about that. You and me like a mother. >> That makes him something. I don't know if it makes him great. >> Well, I mean, >> authentic. >> He did something right. You did something right. >> I did a few things right. A lot of things wrong. A few things right.

4:43 >> But I I am authentically me. >> So, I don't know. I have now I have to start researching this this property. this this new management. >> Dude, just have AI do the homework for you. What are you talking about? >> All right. >> You do research. >> All right. So, we're going to tell about the the stock market today. Jay, >> dude, I have so my I have an equally weighted utilities index that I want to start with today.

5:02 >> That's random. Okay. can I guess? You must be bullish. >> Utilities. >> No market. >> It's a bull market. >> Arels, a French luxury house. >> How can you do anything else? >> It's a I mean, it's a bull market. I mean, I listen, I've done the homework. Historically, >> when most stocks go up. >> Wait, stop. >> Historically, it's better to >> breaking news. This is all going to work out really great. Arel's Lron control is the chateau de Versailles. It's set within the grounds of the palace of Versailles.

5:32 >> Oh, you're good. You're good. okay. So, actually, this is like one of the best hotel chains in the world, >> dude. I'm not gonna be there. I don't care. >> Nobody cares. >> None of us are gonna be there. >> Yeah, but you follow me on Instagram. So, you have a stake in this. >> I do not follow you on Instagram. >> You don't? >> No, I don't do any. Oh, your wife follows me, man.

5:50 >> No, I don't do Instagram. Like, I don't do anything. >> You know, your wife is a power poster. I love it. I see you every day. I love seeing you on Facebook. >> I love seeing your I love seeing your kids, but I just realized I don't see them through you. I see them through her. Yeah, >> she's she's on the she's on the job. >> She's keeping us in the loop. I love it. >> Yeah. Good. You know, that's what people tell me. They they get to see my kids.

6:07 >> The boys are getting big. >> They are four years old. >> The little girl looks exactly like him. >> I mean, you know this. >> Yeah. I pretty much think so. What? You don'tgan looks exactly like you. >> Yeah. All right. >> So, this is a good thing. No, this is Well, good luck. Good luck to all of us. But yeah, it's a good thing. >> You know that the night I met my wife, I was with you two guys.

6:33 >> Really? >> You us two and >> Fami. I remember meeting her with you at the same time. >> But that was the first time you met her. >> Yeah. We were going to a Business Insider charity event cuz Lynette Lopez and Weisenthal were guest bartending and we went to go support them. Remember? >> That's right. >> And the four of us like pregame and went like just like a normal like Wednesday or whatever. And >> that was it.

6:55 >> We used to be out and about back then. I don't give a anymore. >> Yeah. >> I I can't wait to get home to my bed. >> Yeah. >> All right. So, we went we went there and she was working for Business Insider. >> No, her one of her best friends was the head of events at Business Insider. Shout out to Val. >> She was just hanging out. >> She was there to support her friend who threw >> you see how life works.

7:15 >> That's right. >> Well, you got her number that night. >> She actually picked me up. Like, she started hollering at me. Like, people look at her and they look at me. They're like, "No way that happened." Right. But that's the truth. Like I was just minding my own business and the group of girls like, "Hey, you come here." >> Come on. >> I swear to God. >> But that's happened to you before. I've seen that happen to you before. You have like a you have like a vibe like people want to people.

7:37 >> It's funny you said that cuz I'm in South Bend rocking orange and green and we're at the bar and like these girls ARE GOING BOO AND I WAS like Jesus. I'm just standing here. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> When was that? What year was that? >> it was 2014. >> Dude Q1 2014. That's that I mean it's just like that that's how crazy life is. The most random night we just like literally wander into an event and now you're married. Yep.

8:02 >> With with three children. >> Uhhuh. >> Congratulations. >> Thank you. >> Congratulations. >> All right. Let's do the show. >> We have a lot of charts to get to. >> This podcast is brought to you by DBMF, the world's largest managed futures ETF. Feel like the world's changing fast? Imagine a strategy built to move when everyone else is standing still, going long or short across global markets as the trends shift. DBMF is made to move differently. A single lowcost ETF offering genuine diversification even when stocks and bonds move together.

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9:18 The fund is distributed by Alps Distributors Inc. dBmf is the world's largest managed futures ETF as of September 30th, 2026 with 5.42 42 billion. AUM. All right. Episode 268. Ladies and gentlemen, traders all over the world, I welcome you to the best investing podcast in America and possibly beyond. My name is Downtown Josh Brown. I'm the host of the show. If you're new here, I am joined this week and every week by my co-host, Michael Batnik. Michael, say hello.

10:06 >> Hello. Hello. >> Daniel is here. John is here. Nicole is here. You guys hyped for this? >> Yes. All right, Daniel, you're in the hot seat for this. This is a lot of It's a lot of responsibility. All right, guys. We have a fan favorite. we talk about friend of the show. The best friend of the show is here today. and our real life friend JC Perez. JC is the founder of Trend Labs, which he launched in 2025 as the home for his market research, including his flagship newsletter, Everybody's Wrong.

10:40 The perfect Could you think of a better title for JC's newsletter? >> I mean, and it's also the world's foremost expert on AI chips. So, it's a perfect timing. Cannot I mean, what a coincidence. Oh, I' I've really been behind the scenes like just preparing for this moment. >> You know, I've been waiting for this. >> Wow. I don't think we have the rights to that. >> No, sorry. Sorry. you know, I've just been studying AI for so long. I don't know anything about AI, dude.

11:08 >> yeah, but have you seen The Departed? >> No ticky, no laundry. >> Listen, this was the problem. >> Actually selling chips to the Chinese. >> Yeah. Micro microp process. Microprocessors. >> What if I tell you that movie's 20 years old? Wow. Is it >> 2006? >> I love that movie. >> 200 I watch >> I ride with people on Jack Nicholson in that movie. I love him. His performance as Frank Costello, legend. >> I got to go back and watch it again.

11:32 It's been a minute. But I did want to say something. You know, the the fans of the compound are unbelievable. You guys, seriously, you do a great job. I swear. You know, I go to I go to a concert. I got people coming up to me. I was just in Southbend, Indiana. I'm telling you, six people came up to me at some point, whether it was before the game or during the game. Half of them were telling me how much they love it when I'm on the compound.

11:53 >> Well, you've been on like 80% of our episodes. I mean, for real, you've been on a lot. >> It's always dudes. >> Always dudes. We know. >> Nice dudes, though. >> We're trying We're trying to work on we're trying to work on that. all right. Let's do Let's Let's talk Let's talk about the inevit the inevitably what we have to start with. god damn it, Jensen. So, I was just on TV today and out of the four people on halftime report.

12:21 four all all four of us owned Nvidia up until today, Stephanie Link sold and Malcolm sold and they each exp and me and Bill Baroo are still holding on. but Bill Baroo had to get in the fact that he trimmed it at 217. So, thank great great for you, Bill. All right. So, but like listening to their reasons for why they sold, I actually couldn't disagree with either of them. So, Stephanie said, "Look, I bought it in July at 20 something, like 209 or whatever it is, and now at 170 170 something, it's not that I think the stock goes much lower, is opportunity cost. I could be trapped in this stock for months while all this stuff comes out. Why would I >> Why would I sit here and wait? And I couldn't argue with that.

13:09 >> Malcolm's point is this is now political, which means it could drag on for a year. First, he's he they already said Jensen's going to have to testify in front of Congress before Thanksgiving. So that's in the next week or so. But then the Democrats are going to come into power and they're going to want him back almost no matter what he says. You think Elizabeth Warren doesn't want to talk to Jensen Wang in front of the cameras? So this could drag on for a while. And Malcolm's point is, >> oh, it will. Who knows what else comes out? Why stick around and wait? and also the guy, he's he's gone and we don't know who the new person's going to be. So, those are all really good reasons to sell. I maybe have the worst reason for holding. My average cost is so low it would be idiotic for me to sell almost no matter what happens, which is maybe not helpful to anybody listening to me. I'm in the stock almost 12 years. So, I will not sell. I've already sold on the way up everything that I want to sell. And now that's it.

14:10 I'm try if we're trapped in the stock, there's no good reason for me to remain trapped other than I feel compelled to because if I have to buy it back, I'll never be able to buy it back where I own it. How insane is my rationale for holding relative to the reasons that Stephanie and Malcolm gave for selling? >> I think what what do you think? I think what gets lost a lot in just kind of market analysis and market commentary and you know asking people what they think is that everybody's in a different situation.

14:39 >> That's it. >> And that's that's just the answer. So like somebody's like, "Yeah, I'm selling it." The next person could be buying it. They have completely different goals, completely different time horizons. Kenny Glick was yoloing it this morning. That was a faux show, bro. Great trade. But that that's a classic Kenny trade. Stocks getting crushed. it crosses above the anchored VWAP and you buy it all the WAY UP. THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH JOSH AND IT HAS NOTHING to do with whoever these people are he's talking about.

15:05 They everybody has a different objective, right? And different time horizon, different goals, different risk tolerance. Some people are already in it like Josh. Some people are not. Some people missed the whole thing and now it's their opportunity and they want to hold it for 10 years and they know something about chips that I know nothing about. So, God bless. >> Well, you know what? Everybody's in it. Can I give you the reason not? >> Yeah, I'm in it. My kids 529s are in it.

15:27 Yes. >> Biggest stock in the world. Everybody's in it. >> Can I give you not to Can I give you the reason not to sell it? >> I'll give you I'll give you a couple of reasons not to sell it. And I think like No. All right, let's stipulate. Nobody knows how much worse the news is going to be. And maybe we've seen the worst of it. I don't know. 5 minutes before we started recording, word came out that there was another employee that he had a relationship with. Terrific.

15:52 the stock is down 23% in 10 days. It's the worst 10day drop in four years. You have to go back to 2022 crash. That puts th this moment in the bottom 2% of all rolling 10day periods for Nvidia, literally since it came public. That's number one. Number two, and maybe more to the point, I know you don't care about this stuff, but somewhere in some alternate universe, a lot of people do. Now, the stock's at a 10 forward PE.

16:23 It's selling at a multiple of less than half of the market. they're still expecting 95% earnings growth this year, 70% next year. They always beat the number like every single time. They always guide higher. >> But wait, but this but the story's changed. >> Well, that's true. And I think what the >> dramatically that's fine, but so is the market cap. It's lost a trillion in change in market cap. So, we know the story's changed. Yeah, it's right now it's under four. It was like 56 57 >> Trill >> trillion and it's under four. It's under four trillion. It's almost four. It's not three and change.

17:00 >> Yeah, the story has changed. Obvious like no So is the valuation. >> No, no, no. But it's not just Dan the Trump one, please. So when I said everybody owns it, what I meant was it's the biggest stock in the world or the second or third or whatever it was. This stock was really nowhere prior to I I mean ironic is the wrong word. hilariously crypto like it was powering the crypto mining stocks. So this was the 300th biggest stock in the world give or take shot up to top five and it's been there this entire time in the last 5 years. So when I say the story has changed, a lot of the buying power has come from countries in Southeast Asia and if they have been funneling through the back door into China and there there is a complete regime change, how many tens of billions of dollars of revenue are we talking about here?

17:49 Daniel, we've got chart what's the one that I grab from Derek Thompson? Chart four. So Nvidia's Singapore boom 18% of sales in fiscal year 2025 are coming from Singapore. That is up from 8 and a.5% >> be under the microscope now. >> So are you kid I mean this is a mon the top line is changing the bottom line is going to change and who the knows where the shakes out now. Is it like is is this priced priced in? I don't know.

18:15 >> So there's two other there's two other things that I think are relevant to this. It's the the share price reaction to him stepping down today almost doesn't matter if you're long the stock because you've been long the stock. What actually is going to end up mattering a lot is what they do about the CEO role. And I remember both of these stories. I lived through them. I traded through them. Huelet Packard in 2010 was one of the biggest market cap technology stocks in the world. Believe it or not, Hullet Packard like actually mattered.

18:47 They had this guy Mark Herd who was the CEO. They found expense reports tied to a relationship that he had with a woman that worked at another company. Like he was in a position to funnel contracts to this woman's company and he was like taking her to hotels and stuff. Okay, fine. They pushed him out. He ended up getting a job at Oracle. I don't know if that went well or not, but here's what happened in the wake of him being pushed out. They brought in a new CEO who the company for life.

19:18 This guy Leo Apothecar. He did an acquisition as the head of Heler Packard. He bought autonomy for 11 billion. Ended up being the biggest accounting scandal of that era. It was almost like a fraudulent accounting situation. They had to write down 9 billion of that 11 billion. The stock fell 70%. so the 10% drop when this guy was pushed out wasn't an overreaction. It was actually an underreaction. Then we had Intel eight years later in 2018.

19:48 Brian Cranwich was the CEO. The stock was doing well. They pushed him out. He was sleeping with an employee. Intel ended up falling to a 50-year low because they replaced him with a CEO who said, "We're going to go big into the fab business at the exact worst time. His big idea was going to compete with Taiwan Semi." Got annihilated by Taiwan Semi. The stock still hasn't recovered. 50-year low. so to me as a shareholder now, I don't care about more Jensen scandals. They don't matter.

20:21 >> Mhm. >> Unless there's like some sort of treason that they're going to charge him with. Now, what really matters is who's the next person that's going to come in. It might be somebody that the street is excited for. I know Donald Trump wants to see Tim Cook come out of retirement. there are rumors that it could be the CEO of PaloAlto Networks. Like to me that's what I have to hang my hat on that the board is going to make a good decision and the stock could run up 12% on that news. I don't want to sell out of it here and miss that potentiality. I I mean I don't know how long a question.

20:56 Can I ask you a question and then we can get into the things that actually matter which is the prices of the assets. >> do you think that this is a sell the rumor buy the news? Like the worst case scenario was Wang is gone and like And it happened already. That's my point. So, can we now move on, you think? Or is there or is it like more of a situation like all sorts of accounting shenanigans and now the whole >> It's 164. If if you had to bet, what would you bet you're going to see 100 first or 200 first?

21:27 >> 200. >> The good news is the good news is in America, we don't have to bet. >> right. No, I'm not saying it's a it's a good bet. >> You don't have to bet in America, which is a good thing. gun to my head if you had to bet I I think you had 200. >> So that's what before 100. >> That's what I think. It's it's it's a 10 multiple growing 90% a year. >> And I and then somebody said, "Oh, the Jensen premium is off the stock." There is no Jensen premium. The stock has been cheap for three years and getting cheaper every quarter. What are we talking about? There's no Jensen premium. The stock's been at a discount to every other tech stock with one or two exceptions. So, like to me, I don't think the business just falls apart because they lost the guy.

22:10 >> No, but they might not be growing 90%. >> That's great. That's why the stock's not 240, it's 160. We totally agree on that. So, anyway, that's my that's my spiel. >> You want to look at some charts on the Nvidia? Take a look. >> Yeah, cuz remember this didn't just happen overnight. >> Oh, we do have a chart though. Wait, before we do yours, give me chart too. So, what we're looking at here is day one reaction is usually bad post scandal. Granted, now we know what. So, here's that Mark Herd story that I just told. And you could see the red dot is when he's pushed out and it gets worse and it gets worse. Eventually, the thing recovers, but it takes like decades. Here's the Brian Cranwich scandal. Again, the AI boom rescues Intel. Prior to that happening, intel was in a 65% draw down from the day they pushed him out. And then here is McDonald's, which I didn't get into the story because it's not a tech CEO.

23:05 Another guy sleeping with one of his employees. And that one ended up turning out fine. So there's no guaranteed way that this has to go. >> JC, before we get to your charts, I want to just segue. Okay, we're do a little transition 6A, please. Daniel. So, we've never been in a position over the last 5 years with Nvidia as either the first, second, or third biggest company in the world where it is in a 30% draw down and the S&P is only 2% from its highs. So, that's what we're looking at right now.

23:33 Nvidia this morning was down 31% from its highs and the S&P has not even budged. How can this be interpreted as anything other than super duper duper bullish? >> Yeah. And it's not just what happened with Nvidia when Brazil fell 30% a couple of weeks ago >> in a day. >> Nobody gave a >> Yeah. >> Like you would have told me that the 10th largest economy in the world was going to have a crash worse than the 1987 crash and nobody would even I think the Dow was up like 200 that day.

24:03 >> The ban played on. I don't think that would have happened 15 years ago. >> That was wild. >> I think it would have taken down S&P futures. >> Yeah. >> Instantly. >> Yeah. >> Meanwhile, what were we talking about last week after the midterm election? we stock market had its worst day in years. The Q's were down 6%. Then what? We got it basically all the way back. >> Start with that one. Start with the slide my slide three.

24:26 >> three. >> Yeah, we'll just get right into the Nvidia. so this is the election correction. So at this point after last week, you basically had the Nvidia down something like 24 25% post election and then over the weekend I'm in Indiana. I'm talking to my dad, you know, telling him what's going on. Then, of course, we come into this week, next slide. >> And then, of course, you have the erection correction. >> God, >> right?

24:52 >> Oh, boy. >> He really did. So, that's what this week is. So, big shout out to Spencer Israel nailing that chart. And so, there were signs obviously if you go back. So, now down almost down almost 40% I think 37 38% at the lows. But there were signs, right? So in June, in June of 24, you know, autographing women where they should not be autographing. then of course this is in November of 24. Nvidia added to the Dow, right? So not added to the Dow when it was a small cap obviously added to the Dow at $5 trillion in market.

25:28 >> They really nailed it this time >> as I mean as usual. >> They're so good at this. >> All right. So you got the boob signature. You got the Nvidia added to the Dow. And then of course just a couple of months ago in September the sorcerer of silicon right right on the cover of the Economist magazine right at the top there in early September and now here making new >> one time man of the year >> it was a lot of men the man of the year >> was all men and Lisa Sue >> yeah yeah >> they were like sitting across the steel beam but that's that's a good sign if you told somebody that this was happening that Nvidia lost a third of its market cap what's the rest of the market doing? I don't know. Down 20.

26:05 >> Yep. Because remember, Nvidia was the whole market. >> That's the only thing keeping it up. AI. >> This is your favorite comedy. Here's what Wall Street's analysts decided to do today. Oppenheimer cut. Removed its price target entirely. Sees no obvious successor and warns of a brain drain. Stacy Ras on it. Bernstein cut. Price target goes from 400 to 400 to 200. Sure. >> Stop it. >> I swear to God. Bared cut to neutral slash the target you ready to 200 from 500 a 60% cut do these price targets even have any meaning rising odds of a CEO change less visibility blah blah blah blah key bank cut to sector weight from overweight whatever that means their point is Nvidia's chief technology strategist not just the CEO Melius target 185 five from 3:15. William Blair, market perform from outperform, leadership vacuum.

27:09 >> Oh, we get it. You're not viewing the ball. >> It's it's it's almost as if these numbers are just made up. What? These price targets are just made up. >> They always They always have been. I've been telling you this forever. I mean, it's just made up It really is just gossip columns for adults. It is really hilarious. Even Dan, even our old friend Dan Ies at York for Ives 300 a share with Hang as CEO, 225 without him.

27:34 So 25 to 30% less, which actually might end up being prophetic. >> Why don't we talk about companies where the CEOs can keep it in their pants? >> I don't know. Slide five. >> I don't know that we know for sure that any such company exists. >> Well, let's at least try, right? Cuz at the end of the day, there are good men out there that don't cheat on their wives and actually love their families. >> It's not morals. It's testosterone. I So, I said this >> judge of the charts.

27:57 >> I said this on TV and I thought they were going to faint, but it's true. All these Silicon Valley guys are doing TRT. You know what that is? >> Testosterone replacement therapy. They're tweeting about it. They're podcasting about it. Basically, they're shooting themselves with excessive amounts of testosterone in their 50s and 60s to maintain their edge. And that's where all this leather jacket comes from. And the reality is testosterone is undefeated. Look what this guy just did.

28:24 He just threw his life's work in the garbage. Like it's it's remarkable. But I don't know that this is all morality. >> Just shoot yourself in the head like a normal CEO. >> No, I think I think I think there's it's I don't I don't want to say it's drug use, but it's chem it's chemicals. Like it's I'm just saying I'm not making excuses for anybody and I'm not saying people should be amoral. I just think that there are other elements to the story.

28:50 >> Back to you. >> No, I mean, listen. >> No charts. Let's go. >> You gotta be I mean, you got to be on another >> No, this is THE CHINESE SPY SPY. >> If you're invested in a company, >> can't be nailing the Chinese spy, man. >> No, this is for obvious reasons. Of course not. But if you're invested in a company, this idea that there's going to be any CEO that like just implicitly they're never going to make a mistake. I mean, come on. By the way, this is this is the story of the decade. Like the the the AI CEO was having >> an affair with an alleged Chinese spy, >> our number one adversary, >> allowing our biggest advantage to go to them. I mean, it's unbelievable.

29:36 >> Yeah, I actually I actually agree with you. I don't think you can overstate that component of it. >> And the White House knew about it. and the White House China. Everybody called Everybody called the AI bubble. Nobody thought that it was going to be a penis that popped the AI bubble. >> Well, here we go. >> By the way, >> nobody called that. >> One one other thing about this. I was thinking about this on Tuesday or whenever we saw no Friday when we saw Elon talk to Ron Baron. I thought to myself, there is no person in the world that is more responsible for more market cap key man risk than Elon Musk.

30:10 Jensen was number two. But you never think about this as an investor. You're like, I I want the Elon Halo. I want Jensen's aura or whatever. >> That's real key, man. Risk. You're not wrong. >> I actually think Elon would have survived this. >> You think the Tesla board would be meeting about removing Elon? What are we talking about? >> Well, he's got like a 100 kids already and like who the hell knows. By the way, I think he I actually think he would have it would have been ugly, but I think he would have skated through this except for the spy angle. That's the really the exceptional >> espionage guys.

30:44 >> The treason. Yeah, treason. >> Well, no. So, here there's two. Let me ask let me ask it this way. >> What did he know? >> Hold on. Which is worse? He has a direct line to the White House. You assume he's on the phone night and day with Lutnik and Trump and whoever else matters. and he's doing that in a hotel room with a woman sleeping next to him, but not really sleeping. That's one problem.

31:08 Okay. Or it's worse than that. She's blackmailing him. Like the Chinese government has blackmail on Jensen who does not want to lose his company and lose his marriage. I don't even like which is worse. What if the blackmail that he knows or he doesn't know? Dude, what if I I'll answer your question, but what if the blackmail is just hey $30 billion a year in chips and growing and growing $10 billion a year? >> That's that's my point. And if that comes out like everything gets worse for every company selling semicondu take a look.

31:38 >> I mean just >> let's take a look. >> Unbelievable. >> Cuz here's your line in the sand. >> The charts will will tell us the truth. >> These are I mean it's the only thing that we can trust. >> Why is that a line? It just seems like it randomly stopped. >> Those are the July lows. >> The sand has lines. Josh, >> those are the July lows. So I think that that >> but there's no like here's I'm asking you. There's no reason why it stopped there in July. There's nothing on the chart.

32:01 >> That's the Leopold low. >> Okay. So, it was a liquidation of stocks. Okay, fine. >> So, we gapped down below that last Thursday, >> right? Last Thursday, you got the gap below the Leopold low. So, Thursday, Friday, Monday, and Tuesday were all below that. And then yesterday, we gap back up above those levels. >> False breakdown. maybe and then now today here we are. So that's your level. I think if if if this if this fails up here and starts to roll over again, bull market cancelled, AI bubble pop, it's all over.

32:38 >> is today encouraging Broadcom up 6%, AMD up. >> I totally disagree with you cuz the money could go into the competitors like Nvidia. >> It is right now. >> It is right now. >> Right. This is semiconductors as an index. >> Oh. Oh. Oh. Oh. My my bad. >> My you agreeing with the chart? Yeah. Yeah. This is bigger picture. >> I thought this was Nvidia. My bad. >> And then look at the Q's. And then the Q's broke down last Thursday and it had already recovered by the end of last week.

33:00 >> What a rep tail, right? This is so this is Apple, Amazon. They were all at 52 week highs. >> Yep. Microsoft believable when you think about it. >> Yep. >> So what so that the message there, not that the message matters, people do not want out of the AI trade. They want out of Nvidia. >> people do not want out of the AI trade. They want out of Nvidia is what the market is doing now. Broadcom and AMD are both at 5% today, >> right?

33:25 >> So, >> so people want the exposure to AI and they want the data center exposure still. >> I guess we'll see. >> Yeah, >> I guess we'll see. But at least the market is giving us a line in the sand that we could go that we could use here. I just threw up the new slide eight. Just refresh that. Go to the next one. >> Go to the next one. No, no, no. That one. Can you refresh that? Because I circled it. You can't see the number.

33:45 This came out this morning. This is a AI. These are individual investors. So, the number is 51.4%. I don't know why it gets such an ugly number. It's just completely blocked here. The AI must like >> Don't you love the setup that there's so much worry? >> Well, that's just what happens. >> What is your What is your It's >> 51 weekly. These are weekly. >> More bears. More bears. Bears. Yeah. 50 Half the individual investors think stocks fall over the next six months.

34:06 >> Is that That's extreme. >> That is I mean more than half investors think that that we're going down and we're in the midst of a bull market where we're a couple percentage points away from a new alltime high. Yeah, that's pretty extreme, I'd say. And you know >> how much of that is just the like of the election like oh the Democrats going this time of of year October November and particularly during midterm election years investors just love to take the best companies out of their portfolio and take them out and then they do that and then the stock market rips in their face and then they complain after and then usually blame the government. That happens midterm election years going back a hundred years.

34:43 >> Yeah. It's like there's like a >> humans decide that they want to find the best companies they own and then no longer own them. >> Yeah. >> And then they rip and then complain and then they do this dance over and over again. And yes, this time's different because it's the Trump and and Pocahontas and then this one. It's all different characters, but other cycles. It's other polarizing figures. And it's the common denominator is not those figures. Us, >> it's the humans.

35:08 >> It's the nihilists. >> Amen. >> Can I have char Can I have charge five? Daniel. So, just to underscore this point, this is AMD versus Nvidia rolling one-year returns. So, we're basically showing you the last 12 months. And, this goes back, this goes back to the origin of Nvidia, not that it competed with AMD historically up until the last, let's say, four years, right? But what you can clearly see here is that this is a fairly prominent streak of AMD outperformance >> relative to history. AMD's I think we're looking at the top just stock performance up 123% over the last 12 months versus Nvidia 15.

35:52 >> Wow, that's a chart. >> So wow, this is a good one. next one is chart six. >> I mean this tell this tells us a story too. This is AMD price and market cap growth year to date. just another way, just a zoom in, another way to look at it, like this is what people are doing with dollars. And they're saying, "I'm not ready to give up on AI. I'm just in the wrong stock. I'm now in a stock that's embroiled with political and it's not been going up for a long time." Anyway, AMD has added massive market cap this year and has now become a trillion dollar stock.

36:28 >> Yep. So I I just think like it and >> up another 5% today is a wow >> and that is a testament that's a testament I think >> this is what I love about the stock market we're not sentimental we're a lot of things I wouldn't say we're not emotional cuz fear and greed and we're crazy and we get really excited at the peaks and we get really despondent at the lows we're not sentimental about any given event or person on January 6th the Dow Jones was green like we get over really fast. The comeback from 911 was I don't know maybe two months >> 87 crash >> right so we're not sent we're we're calculating we're rational in the end it's about money and it's about where will my money be treated best and we could get over a lot of CEO has an affair so and so got fired this is we don't really care that much what we actually care about is I'm a professional investor people have given me their money my job is to grow their money. I don't care who's doing what on Saturday night. What is the best way I can grow my investors money? I think it's the thing I love the most about Wall Street and I think it's what sets our game apart.

37:44 >> Purity >> from Yeah. Like in celebrity culture, in politics, in so many different arenas, it's about the personalities and people being offended and the morals. We do not give a >> No. Now for the for better or worse. Yeah. >> This is just the reality. >> That's right. Like Antonio Kromardi, hell of a player. How many kids? How many kids? Where did that come from? >> No, but what I'm saying is it goes the same way like in a football team. Are you going to judge the behavior of your defensive lineman?

38:14 >> You know what I mean? >> Still playing. >> They do. But they do run these people out of town on a rail. Like Antonio Brown was run out of the league. >> I think he ran himself out of the >> I know. He went crazy because of the pressure of being run out of the league. >> Yeah. Yeah. charts. >> Yeah. so I wanted to Are you guys using AI? >> Not really. >> Can't stop, won't stop.

38:33 >> What does it stand for? >> Let me tell you something. You know, it they everybody talks about artificial intelligence, but it's a natural stupidity that I'm really interested in these humans. >> And so this one today, I got the AI sends me the magazine covers so I don't have to go looking around anymore. They send them to me every every day. >> You got the Incredible Hawk. That was this morning. and then the AI on the cover of The Economist, right? So that you know the the Incredible Hulk is just you know just angry. It's just funny >> or like the implication like what Trump's going to do now that he's angry.

39:03 >> Yeah, I guess right. >> He's going to do nothing >> probably. AI. So then just go through and just kind of go through. You can see the future of AI will be shaped by a few dozen people. Well, there's one less. then you got the then you got the New Yorker trying to pull the plug. Can you pull the AI plug? You can keep going. Look at Time magazine. The AI election. >> So we know the AI politics.

39:23 Keep going. Watch this. Hold on. Right. The anthropic paradox just trust us on the cover of time. And then finally, could, AI be conscious? The sorcerer of silicon before all that. This was two months ago. And then of course the AI arms race in a monster mushroom cloud built out of >> I don't understand. Are you fading this or what? What's your point? >> My point is I I think the negative rhetoric towards it continues. I think the anthropic IPO I think could be a rousing success.

39:50 >> Me too. You know, I was very impressed with >> now that they're pricing it lower, it gives you a better chance of seeing it up 50% on the day. >> SpaceX, they get an A+. >> Yeah. >> A+. And I went in there being like, dude, they're totally going to screw this up. >> It's still above the IPO price. >> Yeah. >> So, I think as investors, we need to take a step back and just understand that there's a lot of things going on in this market and there's a lot of things going around the world. And sector rotation is the lifeblood of a bull market. We talk about it time and time and time again. So if techn is coming off, if semiconductors are coming off, what's working? Absolutely. Right.

40:24 >> So these are the last six weeks. Staples, healthcare, consumer discretionary. >> How about that? >> Financials, materials ripping over the last six weeks. If it was just consumer staples, I would say that's probably a problem. But it's not. It's financials. It's materials. It's consumer discretionary. It's healthcare stocks, right? And look at tech down 12%. not including today, just in the last six weeks. Now look at the two months prior. The two months prior tech was the best and it was utilities and real estate and discretionary that were the worst, right? So that was from August to October. That's the sector rotation that we're talking about. Now go back the prior two months before that. Tech was the worst and it was financials and healthcare and real estate that were the best between June 1st and August 1st.

41:12 And then if you look at the two months prior to that, technology actually has had its best two months ever. >> April. So there's reinforcements. >> And then go back to Q1 and then we'll and you see and then here's the end. So this is Q1. Technology sucked. Energy up, right? Rotation, rotation, rotation. It's a lifeable market. We keep seeing it >> even inside of tech. We're like the software stocks could not have had a worse first half.

41:38 >> Yeah. And then the software stocks out of nowhere you saw cyber security become the leading sector within tech. And I want to show you the trade of the year. chart 7. This is the last man standing. >> Mhm. >> It is the only mag 7 up 30% on the year. It has added more in market cap than most of these semiconductor stocks have lost. It is nonAI large cap tech and it became the de facto well what do I do with my money when I sell Micron or when I sell Nvidia >> Apple >> I buy Apple because now I don't worry about data center financing I don't worry about coreweave and Oracle and all that and I don't worry about the company's capex and we're in an iPhone cycle and maybe Apple's not exciting but you know what the company is executing and whatever, buy buy more. Now you got a stock trading up 32% at a almost 40 earnings multiple and they keep buying it. They're buying it even though Bergkshire was selling it. Like thi this really to me has become the trade of the year and I don't know where it stops.

42:51 Go to 400. >> remember when Apple was one of the biggest companies in the world? Can I get one of these? >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Remember when it's back is now it is. >> Yeah. Remember when it was like the most important company? like everything would stop the whole market, >> the whole throw up my slide 25. Actually, I think you're going to like this one. We'll skip right to this one. >> so this is slide 25. So what I did was is that I took the consumer discretionary index on a market cap weighted basis which includes a lot of Amazon as it should and Tesla and Home Depot and some of these others. But I added the other consumer stocks that aren't indexed, right? Because this is standard and poor. So they have to do things for political reasons, not like DC politics, but like you know index constituent politics. And so there's a lot of obvious consumer stock. The biggest consumer stock in the world is Apple and it's not in the consumer discretionary index, right? So this includes Apple and this is all market cap weighted. So notice how it's at all time highs. So this includes Visa, Mastercard, American Express.

43:46 >> You put those in market cap weighted also. >> Love it. >> Delta, United, Walmart. So, I like your index way better than the one we're forcefed. >> Well, it's half it's half. You're still choosing to look at that. >> But you're right. What's the biggest consumer product on earth in dollars is the iPhone. How could that not be part of this? >> Can I say one one thing that I >> Black & Decker? >> One thing that I especially love about the stock market. We've spoken this a million times. There are no ironclad rules. Like nothing. I don't know who said this. It's a great line. Once you think you figure out the keys to the market, they change the locks. So, for example, in September, October, consumer staples, which you just showed are ripping, were breaking down dramatically. Why? It wasn't very hard to figure out what the narrative was. It was high oil prices, but it was interest rates were ripping and consumer staples are often a proxy, right? Like they're they're they're a bond replacement. They were getting crushed. And now consumer staples are ripping all the way back.

44:45 And guess what? Interest rates are also ripping all the way back. So higher interest rates killed consumer staple stocks six weeks ago and today they're not touching them and the narrative is completely flipped because of the stock price. >> I mean staples are stocks too at the end of the day. Also Walmart is in there and Costco's in there and Target is in there. they're also in my discretionary index. And by the way, I'm not just cherrypicking the good ones cuz Disney's in here too.

45:12 >> Disney should be a consumer stock. Have you Have you been to Disney? Have you seen these $20 balloons on the way out? >> It's in Wait, it's not in Where is it? It's not communications. >> It is. >> Oh, I guess because of the streaming and the movies, >> I guess. You know, again, political reasons. But they throw off the OG. Throw up the OG discretionary that's not as good as mine. We all agree. And so, no, no, no, not that one. That was a funny one though. No, slide 26. Sorry.

45:35 You're stealing my thunder here. Consumer discretionary. This is the actual regular one. Doesn't look bad. >> It doesn't look bad, but it's only telling half the story. >> It's only telling half the story. How about the next one? Look at small cap consumer discretionary. What's in this piece of >> I like restaurants and like, you know, little discussion, little retailers, but again, >> looks fine. >> Doesn't look bad. >> No, looks fine. Looks like it wants to break out.

45:56 >> And then, so since we're on the consumer, why don't you throw up the next one? >> this is, this is hilarious because there isn't a single person that I talked to that thinks that, you a major US housing boom has just gotten started. Nobody thinks that. >> So, I really wanted to ask you about that. Yeah, >> that's the most cuz I I read your stuff and that's the most fascinating idea right now that literally nobody will say out loud.

46:20 >> Not a single person. >> Can I before so before you explain it to us? >> I mean existing home sales are at a 16 year low. So >> right so let let me just share this really quickly. >> But that might that might make your case like could sentiment be any worse? No. >> We got home sales for October, lowest lowest level since 2010. >> we have this chart. Daniel, can can we just jump to this?

46:40 14. So, this is home sales in October at a 16-year low. Sales of existing homes declined 5.5% from the previous month, >> dropping the level of sales to the lowest point since the subprime crisis. This is the backdrop for what you're about to tell us. But it it says the last time sales were this low, August of 2010, when the economy was still reeling from the housing bust and the recession that followed, sales fell 8.8% from last October. So year-over-year down almost 10%, which marked the largest year-over-year decrease since 2023, which is when rates were higher than they are today. So, this is a a disaster area headlinewise, but tell us tell us what you're seeing.

47:31 >> Well, I mean, listen, sentiments washed out. You know, I was at a conference on Thursday in Nashville. I asked everybody to raise their hand if they think that there's a housing boom in the United States that's just getting started. Not a single person raised their hand. Not one. >> They think you were joking. >> They thought I was joking and in some cases get mad at me. >> But, dude, that get mad at me for Hold on. But be clear, dude. You're talking about the stocks. There will there's a boom is not coming. You don't need to be a genius to figure that out.

47:56 >> Everybody is telling me that, >> dude. So, >> you're not that's not what you're you're not predicting a housing. >> All that I know is that if if data has proven anything is that the stock market is a forward-looking discounting mechanism for the economy six to nine months ahead of time, maybe 12 months ahead of time. So, what the economy is going to look like a year from now, the stock market is telling us now.

48:13 >> That is true. But which stocks are telling you this? >> PY Homes and Toll Brothers. >> Do the do the PY chart. What What are you seeing here? So, PY Homes and Toll Brothers are pushing up against new multi-year against new all-time highs really. And so, >> do you know this there's there's nothing here. >> I know everybody agrees with you. So, for me, I I don't know what's going to happen. I don't know anything about real estate. I hate real estate, you know? I own it and it sucks. It's expensive.

48:39 Like, I'm just not a fan. I like liquid assets, but whatever. It is what it is. I don't know a single person that is bullish of housing. I think it's a complete disa. Everybody agrees it's a complete disaster. And but the fact THAT PEOPLE GET MAD AT me >> when I even suggest like >> but I agree with you. If you can buy and hold your nose and wake up in 3 years, will these stocks be meaningfully higher? They could be.

48:58 >> Well, I would look at the ITB, which is the home construction, US home construction ETF. If that starts breaking out, >> look out. >> It doesn't look good. >> All right. Right. >> I don't know what's going to happen. We'll see. >> But let's not talk past each other. When we're talking about existing home sales, we're not talking about home construction. >> Yeah. And two things can exist in the same world where it's really hard to sell an existing home, but it's really obvious that new homes would be desirable. Hence, the companies building and selling them should be able to take more price. I think that's really what's happening.

49:32 >> But that's not happening either because interest rates are getting too expensive for them to buy down in the last report. They're getting crushed. These these companies are not in good shape. But the stocks are doing much better than the fundamentals would suggest. To your point, it's looking forward. Everybody knows what's in the price and it's bad news. >> I So there's >> I I don't know what an existing home sale is, but what I do know is that these home construction stocks like I don't know what it even means. An existing home sale as opposed to a non-existing one. I guess like what does that even mean?

49:57 >> So like I guess Home Depot, you would expect it to look a lot worse than it does given the news. We don't have we don't have this chart, but if somebody really wants to make this bet, I own a stock very very small amount QXO. Do you know what that is? No. Have you ever seen this piece of >> Maybe. It might be one of the worst stocks of the last year. >> So, I started to nibble. not for any reason. It doesn't look like it's going up anytime soon, but >> it was founded by Brad Jacobs, who is the guy who created RXO, XPO Logistics, GXO Logistics.

50:27 >> This guy's like a gangster. >> United Rentals, United Way. What he does is he comes in with capital and buys up all the mom and pop players in these industries that really shouldn't have 5,000 companies >> and he technologizes. QXO, right? And he adds a little sprinkles a little AI, but he builds these monster companies. QXO is relatively new. This is his attempt to buy up all these like roofing materials companies and like aluminum siding, like all this stuff. He's putting it all together under the QXO umbrella. And if you're right on this housing thing, like this is the type of stock that would work in that scenario.

51:05 >> Well, for the record, I I don't know what's going to happen. It's not that I'm going to be right or wrong. is that I think that as investors we have to be open-minded to it. That's all. And how do we know if it's happening? You'll see it in the home construction stocks. >> You think the stocks will tell the story before the the turn in the fundamentals. >> Exactly. >> So do I. Yeah. >> Doesn't it always work that way?

51:22 >> And I'm not saying we're going to get a housing boom, but if we are going to get one, now would be a perfectly logical time for it to start and these home construction stocks breaking out will be confirmation that that's probably what's happening. So something to watch for agree, you know, all the >> Here's the scenario. Democratic Congress comes in. They want to throw a lot of money at first-time home buyers. they use they they have tons of bargaining chips they can throw at Trump that he would love to have like I don't know blanket pardons let's say but like a one scenario is the left decides that they want to make housing more affordable in some way and they do something with mortgages or whatever they do or or just flat out writing checks and all of a sudden the housing market restarts like that's one plausible scenario you see Yeah, I mean, I don't know what's going to take it out, but I'll tell you what, look at the banks. You want a good tell? Look at the This is the S&P bank index. And look what it's doing right now. It's breaking out above the great financial crisis highs for the first time since then.

52:21 That was almost 20 years ago. By the way, the 20-y year anniversary of that high is going to be in two months, less than two months. >> that's that's wild to think about. >> January 07. >> That was the high for the market. >> That was the high for the bank index. The market peaked nine months later. That was the beginning of the end. >> Almost if it was a forward-looking discounting mechanism, Michael. >> That's right, sir.

52:40 >> And so we're above those levels. So if you think that the world's coming to an end and Trump's going to ruin everything and the war and the lives are going to ruin everything or any of those things, if you're in the bare camp, that needs to fail. >> Okay. >> The bare market story starts with this chart failing. >> The banks, >> I think so. JC, does this give you pause at all that the muscle memory of dip buying just will not abate even for a second? So, Bunus last week tweeted ETF investors, I'm sorry, this is from Tuesday. ETF investors didn't just buy the dip, they devoured it about 12 billion dollars a day in flows in the past 5 days with the top 17 ETFs, all equity. So, Vanguardians and DGens are very different people playing very different games, but they deaf agree on one thing. You buy the dip. They flooded VO with with money.

53:28 >> They always do. >> They always do. >> But I mean it was everything. Everything. >> IVV Q. >> Well, we have like I don't know something like 88 85 88% of stocks are up over the last month. >> Yeah. >> Which is like the most like in 50 years or something like that. Like people are winning. It's just that American investors decided to not own those things so they can own a lot of tech instead. How great was it that everybody was obsessed with how bad the breath was and then you just had a m every stock ripped.

53:56 >> Everybody Everybody was obsessed like >> like just complaining that not enough stock like it's the the median stock is down blah blah blah. Now 70% of stocks are back above their 50. >> The average stock was up 5% in the month of October. The median stock was up almost 7 and a half% in the month of October. Stocks have been ribbing. look at Berkshire Hathaway. Look at that next chart. is the largest component of the financials index. It was a massive underperformer cuz in their infinite wisdom they decided to raise a record amount of cash in the middle of a raging bull market. Not a good idea as it turns out. And so after some basing here we are making new all-time highs, you know, I mean people are like, "Oh, I don't want to buy Bergkshire. It's too boring." It's like, "All right, don't buy Bergkshire. buy this one instead." If you go to the next slide, this is the triple leveraged anthropic ETF.

54:40 >> Stop. >> so this doesn't exist. You can't buy this here. >> Are you really surprised that this exists? No, in Eur is this in Europe? >> London. >> Yeah, London. so 33% move in anthropic and this is a zero overnight. >> Wait, what the is this? How do they give you 3x leverage on anthropic? >> They're going to in a week. >> No, but how like you can't how what is the trading? What are they trading?

55:05 >> No, it's No, that's that's filed. It's not It's not trading yet. >> Right. I said it doesn't exist. >> I just think it's funny. >> Yeah. >> Like they're getting ready, >> you know? Oh, they would have wiped out. They would have been wiped out based on saying it's a $2 trillion IPO. No, wait a minute. 1.3. >> Yeah. Done. >> So, if you were triple leverage, you'd be done the day of. >> Yep. >> Okay.

55:26 >> So, I want to go through a few countries. stop me at any time. But, >> is this India, bro? >> This is the Indian bank index, right? So, remember when AI was going to destroy the Indian economy cuz you don't need all that IT and you don't need all that anymore. Well, let's see what happens. >> I know. I heard that story. Is that what people are saying, >> dude? India got crushed, man. Like all the IT workers are going to be replaced by AI.

55:43 >> Yeah. >> Wait, why are you laughing? That's that lit. >> Never heard it. >> Philippines also. >> I believe it. >> So go beg Nifty. >> I missed this whole >> new all-time highs, right? Look at the Nifty 500. This is this is the worst country in the world. And it actually looks pretty great. And then look at the Nifty50, right? These don't look bad. These are not bad looking charts. And this is AI supposed to kill these things. Remember that. All right. So now let's go to bigger countries. So you could see London Footsie 350. They don't have tech stocks there, right? It literally goes meltup.

56:15 >> they have one that's really important. >> Yeah. >> Rolls-Royce. >> Yeah, maybe. >> Well, no. It's >> Is it an industrial? >> It's an industrial, but the whole business now is like power and for data centers. >> So if you take out Rolls-Royce, it'll still look like this. >> Okay. >> Right. Think about that's how I like to think about it, right? You know what I mean? So look, you can keep going. And then Germany is probably the most important stock market index in the world outside the United States. just closed at a new alltime high today.

56:39 >> Yeah. Very little, very little tech. >> One tax SAP, the only one, right? So, keep going. And then we could just go through. This is the Euro stock 600. This is like the S&P 1500. >> Nobody knows that. Nobody knows this is happening right now, right? >> Would you agree? People don't even look at these charts anymore. >> That's why I brought them. >> Yeah. >> Right. And we don't have to go through all of them. You can just flip through.

56:57 Right. Euro stocks 50 all-time highs. Let me just go through. Sweden alltime highs. >> How's Poland looking? >> We'll get there. Switzerland alltime high. Right. Brussels alltime high in Belgium. >> These people don't care about Jensen Wag. >> You go. They don't know what a wag the Brussels market is sprouting. >> What is this? Poland. >> Warosski index. >> Yel the >> This is Poland. You asked for Poland. >> Ask for it. >> You asked for Poland. So Poland. Go.

57:24 Keep going. Finish up. Amsterdam. This is the Netherlands. Alltime highs. Italy alltime highs. >> Finally breaking out above the great financial crisis highs. Ireland. >> You're just cherrypicking. I didn't see Bulgaria. Right. Right. Go. They don't have a stock market. Vienna, new all-time highs. Spain, all-time highs. >> Amazing. >> Athens, 15, 16 year highs in Greece. And then, of course, Canada, alltime highs today. >> Thanks, oil. >> And then Australia, alltime highs. And so, it brings us back to the magazine. so I brought some I brought some props. Can I show props?

57:58 >> Yes. >> So, I promised you guys next time I came on the show, Oh, pencil's down. So, next time I came on the show, I was going to bring some props. So, throw up the throw up this one. This guy's got a briefcase. >> Actually, I bought this in India. >> You know that we used to have the bells go off on our quotronons 20 years ago and he would make the same joke. I just had a flashback like you would hear the bell in the boardroom of our brokerage firm. It go ding ding ding ding ding and you would say pencils down.

58:26 It's amaz It's amazing. Look, >> this came from India. This came from Dari. This is recycled leather from the largest slum in Mumbai. All right. So, go to the >> fun fact. >> Fun fact. So, look. Go So, this is the Treasury bond. So, this is just came out what, six weeks ago? So, bonds have been pretty much been going straight up. Got hit today, right? But ripping. When you see when you see the magazine covers, we've talked about this before.

58:50 It tends to come late in the cycles, right? Late in the cycles. >> It's always The economist, honestly. >> It's not. I'll show you a few examples. So, this >> published weekly, so they make it so easy. You know, there's like six or seven of them. Go through. So, by the way, this is where that's happening on the TLT. So, this is at all-time lows. So, if bonds are ever going to bottom, if they don't bottom here, if that magazine cover wasn't it, then interest rates are going to rip higher and ruin everything.

59:16 >> Or we just have to wait for another magazine cover. >> I mean, that was a pretty good one. So, here's a couple good examples. So, here we got the big bad bear. I have to show you. >> 1974. Perfect. They nailed it. Oh that's sick. Let me say that. How did you get that? >> Dude, I have the greatest collection of all time. >> Dude, you need a better case for this. >> Wait, show it. Turn around. Show it to >> So cool. And on the back, vice versa cigarettes. I used to love these things.

59:42 >> See there? >> So, I brought some props. So, all right. So, that's right at the 1974 low. Like a bear literally breaking through there. And so, look, we can see what else we got. >> So, then this is the Newsweek magazine. Let's see. >> So, that's this one. So this is in June of 1965. >> Wait, what does it say? >> Well, whenever there's a chart on the magazine cover, you buy >> the worries of Wall Street. 1965 >> right there. Look at that low.

60:07 >> Get long >> right there. Right before you got that last ripper for that bull market. >> Yeah. >> Right. Go to the next one. So then this is the dollar. This is a classic one. >> All right. It's this 1995. How low can it go? >> With an arrow pointing down. >> Yeah. Love it. Right. >> That was the bottom for the dollar. >> That was the bottom for the dollar. So, we got that one. What else we got? So, then this is the oil the oil top. You could see >> you brought a barrel of oil.

60:33 >> kind of. So, this is the oil top. >> I got to hold it up for for for this. So, what does it say? >> The world over a barrel. >> Oh, and where is it? >> This is 1979. Right. Right at that top in 79. >> Perfect. >> Right there. And then this one also Newsweek. The coming oil crunch that never came. >> Can we see this guys? Right. >> Am I doing it right? Okay. And then this was one of my personal favorites. These are more expensive on eBay when you get the Bitcoin related ones. This was literally the top of the Bitcoin market.

61:03 >> What does it say? >> Oh yeah. >> Are Musk, Dorsy, and Cuban, right? The Oh, what the smart money says about Bitcoin. That was it. >> That was literally the top. We're actually at the same price now. And that was when that was in 2021. We're still at the same price. >> Nice one. And then this is an old school classic. So this is like the bull like all tied up. >> I've never seen this one before.

61:26 >> The same. >> Yeah. So this is March of 1958, >> right? We had a >> right right at that bottom. So what does it say? The recession. How deep? How long? That was literally the bottom. >> I can't believe this has been going on for >> keep going. >> 75 years. Oh, this is one of my personal favorites. The panic about the dollar. So he's on a plane in flames. >> Is it >> right? >> Was that recent?

61:49 >> Yeah, it was. We had one more low and then it ripped from there >> and then I think we got one more there. Although we talked about this on this show if you remember. >> Yes, I do. >> We, you know, can't stop, won't stop, right? That's a classic. We talked about it on this show. >> Why do they keep the dollar? >> Why do they keep writing about the dollar, >> dude? >> In just in general.

62:09 >> And then do we have the the pot the pot of gold? There it is. The pot of gold right at the top of the gold market. >> Let me see. This might be the worst trade of the decade. Do you agree with that? Yeah, it's terrible. >> cannabis. The most idiotic thing you could have invested in this decade. >> And then my favorite. Look, look, look, look, look at the IPO. The Tillray IPO. >> Is that is that zero is to >> I think it's even further down since then, but yeah, that's what it looks like.

62:33 >> Got to be delisted. >> Nice. Right. So, that's this one. And the last one, this is my personal favorite >> from the great bowling bubble of 1960 and 1961. >> Let me see. >> Is that Donnie in the background? So, this is >> what is I don't even I know about the poker bubble cuz I live through that. >> Dude, the bowling bubble is when they discovered that they didn't need a human to line up the the thing the pins anymore and they had a machine to do it.

62:57 >> Automated pin. >> So, these stocks like Brunswick were trading at multiples to hours of bowling per family per week. They were trading at bowling multiples like hours multiples. >> Oh my god. I would have I would have totally bought it. >> Look at this. Look at Brunswick goes up 1,600%. And then just completely collapsed when they realized that nobody gave a about bowling. >> Yeah. But were you around I for I don't know if this pred >> I don't know if this predates you. Were you around for the poker bubble?

63:25 >> Yeah, I was there. I was in college. Yeah, sure. >> You were in All right. So, you weren't working on the street. We had an identical there was a stock World Series of Poker WSOP and like five others >> cuz that money maker guy won. So these were meme stocks before there was a such thing as a meme and there was no social media but online poker spread around the world like wildfire. >> People were watching on TV the World Series of Poker and there was this whole stock trade.

63:52 >> In many ways the bulls were right that people are basically gambling addicts and gambling and moved to the internet. >> But it would take them like 20 years until DraftKings and FanDuel >> sure came along. But like I guess betting on other people wanting to bet is usually not a bad bet. Just doesn't mean the stocks are going to be good long-term performance. >> You seeing Las Vegas Sands, MGN. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. >> Disasters.

64:16 >> and the and the online g all the online gambling stocks look horrible. >> yeah. I mean good. It's it's not good for humanity. >> It's a stupid business. >> If anybody wants to charts, getthecharts.com. We'll send you the charts. We got some good ones today, I thought. Right. Round of applause for JC Parzat. >> Always like to bring some props. This is a good one. Come on. It's a great one. >> That's a great one. So, how do you find these? You on eBay?

64:41 >> My AI finds them for me. I have my >> Are you going to build like build like a room for all these to display or >> you know, I thought about it. I have like, you know, I have like mag I have like the the Wall Street Journal from the crash of 87. I got stuff from 29, you know. I got like Nixon quit stuff and I got some pretty cool stuff. >> I got some I got some stuff too put away. You know what would be a cool idea if your collection gets big enough? You know, Fidelity took the there's something called the Museum of American Finance, MAF used to be in lower Manhattan. I think they had a a lease somewhere for like a physical museum or lost it maybe during COVID. They relocated the entire thing to the warf in Boston and Fidelity hosts it now.

65:29 >> But it has you would your mind would be blown. It has like the first stock certificates ever. Like it has stuff like that. Rooms full of Wall Street memorabilia. You if your collection gets bigger could do an exhibition. >> Oh, that'd be cool. >> Where you send it to them for the summer and let them, you know, be the caretakers over it and people can come to see the the JC Prett collection. >> That'd be cool. Oh, I have quite the collection.

65:54 >> And I I could contribute some stuff to that. So, >> no, that would be cool. And then it would be like all from Josh Brown. I have like stuff from the great bicycle bubble of the 1890s. Yeah. >> Right. Where like everybody thought that like everyone's going to be riding bicycles forever and as it turns out they couldn't build the bicycle stuff. >> I have the physical printed newspapers. The official newspaper of Occupy Wall Street. The broad sheet.

66:17 >> Really? >> Yeah. Multiple of those. Cuz I went down there with Kenny. >> Yeah. >> Me and Kung Fu Kenny went down there. almost got beat up. We went down there with our stupid phones filming filming ourselves. >> Dude, that's still on YouTube. >> This is 2010. >> You and Kenny did it for your book. >> Wait, this is this is before the book. Even Occupy Wall Street was 2011. >> Yeah, that's when he was doing We fought the Fed. Have you seen the music video?

66:39 We bought We fought the Fed and the Fed won. >> Shout out to Kenny. >> We fought the Fed and the >> So Kenny went down to Occupy Wall Street to start some And >> he used to have like this like blow horn and he would dress as white in the wall street Jesus >> blow horn. A bullhorn >> bullhorn. Yeah. >> He used to walk around with the bullhorn maniac. >> Yeah. >> So I I have some and I also have a box. I don't know what to do with it.

67:05 >> Did you know that the New York Stock Exchange used to publish a comic book magazine sort of thing where it was heavily illustrated? It was every week what happened on the New York Stock Exchange. This is from the the 50s and 60s and somebody sent me during the pandemic. Somebody sent me a letter attached to this huge box and the letter said, "I'm going to be passing away pretty soon. I don't know what to do with this. I feel like you will know what to do with this." I swear to God.

67:40 sent it to my office which I hadn't been at cuz it was the pandemic. We weren't allowed to come to New York. So I came and collected my mail and it was there and I have bo I have this box of every New York Stock Exchange magazine for like I don't know 15 years. >> Wow. >> Every week. And they're in mint pristine condition. They're still in the same box. I don't even want to touch them with my fingers.

68:06 >> Wow. >> They're incredible. Like I pulled a few out. The stories that they tell about this stock went up and this was the story. All of this stuff could be repeated right now and you wouldn't know the difference >> 100% for sure. >> And that's so humbling I think for all of us. We think this Nvidia thing is like the biggest story on the planet. But if you go back far enough through the archives, you'll find plenty of situations where Lloyd Blankfine had a great tweet that the the cemetery is filled with quote indispensable men.

68:39 We've had plenty of scenarios where people like Steve Jobs die. Oh no, what's going to happen? Remember? >> Yeah. It's the biggest stock in the So like we persist. What's going to happen? I don't know. The stock will fall, but like the world will go on. Jesse, you know the book 10 years on Wall Street or 10 years in Wall Street, whatever it's called. >> 50 years. >> Okay. But there's there's a there's a few of them.

68:58 >> There's a book called 10 Years on Wall Street. It was written in 1870. >> I have it and I've read whatever enough of it to know it's it could be written today. Same same >> If you go and read the Dow Theory letters, which were the letters that Charlie Dao used to write in the Wall Street Journal in the 1880s and 90s, and I've read hundreds of them. If you just take off the dates and the names of the companies, it's just another day.

69:20 instead of semiconductors, he's talking about railroads. But it's like the same it's the same mentality of like this news happened, >> the stocks went up elections. It's the same thing. It's different polarizing figures. It's a different party sweeping or losing or whatever, but it's the same over and over again. And maybe this time's different. Maybe. >> What do you think about what do you think about the markets of 2026? Like, are you enjoying these markets? >> I cannot sleep in the morning. I'm up at 4:30, 5:00 in the morning ready to just run through brick walls. I'm so excited.

69:53 >> Why? What is it about this environment that you like so much? >> There is more dispersion in today's market than at any point maybe in our entire lives and maybe >> maybe the most we may ever see. >> Why Why do you think that is? >> Well, I don't know what's going to happen in the future, but as of right now, I mean, the dispersion between winners and losers, and I just showed you the sector rotation. It's the second derivative. It's the dispersion of the dispersion because while there are massive winners and losers, Yeah.

70:22 >> that keeps shifting. >> It's fun. The biggest winners of Q1 could be the biggest losers of Q2. >> They were. >> Yeah. It's it really it really is a wild moment. I also think the dispersion within the Mag 7 is fascinating. Like Tesla's down 20 something% but Apple's up 30. >> Amazon and Alphabet might spend 6 weeks moving in the opposite direction. Well, let's just come back for a second. Well, let's just come back for a second.

70:47 That whole Mag 7 thing is not an actual thing. It's just a madeup gimmick for marketing, >> right? It's not an index. It's >> not a thing. >> I mean, we made it into products, but it's not. >> So, we talk about dispersion with the Mag 7, it's like a madeup thing. So, like that's not a big deal. But like when you talk about a real thing, which is all the stocks, you have massive winners and massive losers. And then that flips and then those massive winners are now the biggest losers. And then it flips again and then it flips again and then it flips again. We walk through those charts. So for me, it is just a spectacular moment for the investor to find opportunities to make money from the long side and the short side. And if you're not excited in this market, then you're in the wrong business. Go do something else. This is awesome. And if I can sign up for another 2026 again next year, let's go.

71:33 >> This guy JC Poratz, ladies and gentlemen, >> for real. >> Can we talk about Trend Labs? >> Yeah. >> All right. How do people subscribe to you, find more information? What do you provide? What what do your what are your followers and subs getting from you on a regular basis? >> Listen, I am not going to be shy about sharing my opinion, right? You might not like my opinion. You might not want there to be a housing boom, >> but that's NOT OUR PROBLEM.

72:00 >> THAT'S NOT MY PROBLEM. I'm just going to tell you what I think is happening in the world because nobody else cares really. You know, my wife doesn't care. My kids don't know what I'm talking about. None of my friends give a I got nobody to talk to, man. So, it's very therapeutic. I have you guys. Thank you. So, once every few months, I come down here, we talk and then we go. And then, so, you know, if you go to getthecharge.com, I'll send you the charge from today. You'll automatically get on the free newsletter. You'll hear from me every single day. Short and sweet. This is what I think is the most important thing. This is where I think everybody is wrong at this particular moment. And not paying attention to it.

72:35 >> Good morning. I'm JC. Here's what everyone's wrong about today. >> That's right. And I think that everybody could potentially be wrong about the about housing. And can we go back? By the way, can we I know I know we're running late, but we got to throw this up. We got to throw this up because talk about everybody being wrong. Throw it up. >> Can we talk Can we go to chart >> even though it's pencils down? We're going to throw one more up.

72:59 >> 20 20 pencils down about the stock market. Side 20. So new 52- week lows for rocks versus stocks. >> Gold versus SPY. gold versus the S&P 500 new with the two-we lows. And then if you look at the next one, so this rocks suck this year. This is literally an epic crash in precious metals. Gold down almost a third of its value since January. Silver more than cut in half. Palladium is a crash. Palladium holding it a little better actually. But >> silver and gold are having one of the worst years I've ever seen. And nobody nobody's talking about it really. Or unless >> maybe you're in different algorithm than I am. I just don't hear people even mentioning it.

73:37 >> Well, there's been some news in the market lately. >> They they had a couple of good years, right? We talked about gold here. You guys would make fun of me that I like buying gold, but there's a time and a place. THIS AIN'T IT. THIS AIN'T IT. BUT HERE, GO TO THE NEXT ONE. SO, PNEUMONT, this is Pneumont. And look at this base going back to >> Why is this acting so well relative to the price of gold?

73:54 >> Well, it hasn't done any It hasn't done anything since 1987. So, there's that, right? That's the 87 crash up there, by the way. >> Look at this stock. >> I'm looking I'm looking at the >> That's the 87 crash. There's your base. And now the breakout. And then if you look at silver, this is silver going back, you know, 80 years, 70 years or whatever it is. Look at the peak in 1980. Look at the peak in 2011. And look where we bottomed out. So 50 bucks is your level.

74:16 >> So we're we're retracing a breakout. That could be the beginning of a much larger move. >> If this is a secular bull market for commodities, secular super cycle, commodity super cycle, precious metals are going. This is the opportunity of a generation to buy precious metals. I'm not so much convinced. I started nibbling last week. So far so good. >> You'd rather buy higher with more conviction than take a then take a shot here with nothing to basically.

74:43 >> I bought a little bit last week. I bought a little last week. >> I love it. Ladies and gentlemen, JC Prett, >> one of the best. >> One of the best. Thank you guys so much for watching. Thank you for listening. The compound loves you back. We'll talk to you soon. >>