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Travel Through the Lens of AI with with Booking.com CEO Glenn Fogel

No Priors: AI, Machine Learning, Tech, & Startups · 41m · transcribed 11d ago
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Section Insights

# 0:00

The Illusion of Competitive Moats

What is the reality of competitive advantages in business?

There are no permanent competitive advantages; businesses must continuously innovate to stay relevant. Understanding the complexities of the market and customer needs is crucial before investing.

  • Competitive advantages can disappear quickly.
  • Continuous innovation is essential for long-term success.
  • Investors should thoroughly understand the business landscape before committing capital.
# 8:12

The AI Boom and Market Speculation

Will the AI industry face a similar fate to the dot-com bubble?

While the AI sector is experiencing a boom with many companies being highly valued, history suggests that many will not survive long-term. Speculative bubbles often lead to significant failures, but some companies will emerge successfully.

  • Historical patterns show that speculative booms often result in many failures.
  • The AI industry may see a mix of success and disappointment.
  • Investors should be cautious and discerning in the current AI market.
# 16:25

Personalized AI Agents in Travel

How can AI enhance the travel booking experience?

AI can create personalized travel agents that remember user preferences and handle complex travel arrangements more efficiently than human agents, providing a tailored experience.

  • AI can significantly improve personalization in travel services.
  • Machines can process complex travel needs quickly and accurately.
  • Users still desire a level of agency in decision-making despite AI assistance.
# 24:38

Shareholder Returns and Financial Strategy

What is the importance of returning capital to shareholders?

Companies should return excess capital to shareholders if they cannot find effective ways to invest it. This includes stock buybacks and dividends, which can provide better returns for investors.

  • Returning capital to shareholders is a key financial strategy.
  • Effective use of capital is essential for maintaining investor trust.
  • Share buybacks and dividends can enhance shareholder value.
# 32:51

Choosing Career Paths Wisely

How should individuals approach their career choices?

Individuals should carefully consider their career paths to avoid future regrets. Many may choose paths based on comfort or societal expectations rather than personal fulfillment.

  • Career choices should be made thoughtfully to avoid future regrets.
  • Societal norms can pressure individuals into unfulfilling careers.
  • Self-reflection is crucial in making career decisions.

Transcript

0:00 There is no such thing as a moat. There is no such thing as somewhere you're going to be protected against innovation. Today we have a competitive advantage on areas absolutely but those can go away tomorrow. The only way to really long term is to continue to develop new services, new ways to do things. How can we do your business better? What do you need? Where you need more demand? Where are you hurting? It's so much more complex if you think you're just going to come in and do this business and knock away these very big players. I say you should really understand what the business is before you decide to commit your capital.

0:43 Today I know Prior, we're talking with Glenn Fogle, the CEO of Booking Holdings, a 20some year veteran of the company who joined when it was just Price Line and worth a few hundred million in the year 2000 and has since helped grow it to a hundred billion plus company with multiple massive assets across travel that are now being used in the AI era. We will talk about a variety of topics with Glenn that span everything from the growth and changes that have happened in bookings over time as well as his own career and perspective on AI. So Glenn, thank you so much for joining us today.

1:16 >> Well, thank you very much for having me. >> Yeah, so you've you've had a really interesting career. you know, you went to Wharton, you went to Harvard Law, along the way you worked in I think the MIS program at Morgantown. I'd love to just hear a little about your early background and how that led you eventually to Booking.com and eventually Booking Holdings. >> Yeah, I can do that. So, real short, I came out of war with green finance and now I end up in the back office in MIS.

1:46 my first job is putting tapes on a drive in a data center of IBM 384s and the discs that went and the tape drives and putting putting the tapes on on the drive. That's where I started as an operator actually being an operator of a mainframe very different nothing that you prepared for that in college for that >> and I then become you become a developer and you but I basically learned that this is not a career for me I should do something else >> and all the people I knew undergrad were gone off to investment bank and made all this money and I thought I should try to do that but you can't go I've now gotten down on one shoot and you can't just jump out of that one to will become an investment banker. So, oh, I got a degree in finance for and Harvard led me into law school, so I'll do that because that's another route. And I did that and I end up getting a job on Wall Street as a banker. I did that for till 95 till 1995 and then the bank was bought by another bank and they fired all the bankers almost not every bank they fired most of them including me but not everybody because they fired everybody say well they fired everybody but they didn't fire everybody so you there was a there was actually some people were picked to stay I was not one of them that that's pretty bad so a real good lesson though having been fired and knowing what it's like. That is something I've kept with me throughout my career about how to do it right, not do it wrong and understand what goes through the other person when you tell them that I'm sorry, but there's no longer a room for you here and this is not the place for you to be. And I I really learned that firsthand being on that side of the table. And so now I'm unemployed and my father had had just died not that long before this happened.

3:37 And my father's died, lost the job. my grandmother died and even the dog died, which is kind of sad. And I'm like, what do I want to do with my life now? My young 30s, I'm alone. I'm saying whatever. And I said, you know, I always wanted to write a book. So, I I I start writing a book. I write a novel. I get it done. And now I'm going to try and get it published. And it's not really self-publishing by any do on your own.

4:00 You're trying to get some agent to pick it up. And I was introduced to a woman as a a blind date from a friend. And I think she was a lawyer, but I don't know. They said, "Well, she used to work at Random House as an editor." I said, "Oh, I'm very interested in having." And so we have a date and the book never gets published, but I do end up marrying her and have two great kids and it's wonderful life. But while I was trying to get the book, you know, an agent to be interested in it eventually, she said, "You know, if this relationship's going to go forward, you should get a job." I said, "Damn, the boy." She I didn't want to go back to banking. And I said, "I don't know." And a friend of mine from law school was a senior type person at Morgan Stanley and he I told him look Amy says I have to get a job. I thought he well we have this trading position here that you could do. I've never traded anything in my life. don't worry you'll be fine.

4:53 It's like okay. So I end up being head trader for a guy named Barton Bay who's kind of a Wall Street legend and stuff. I do that for a number of years but I just don't like it. It's not that ex it's just not for me. And that's when the internet was really taking off. That first real explosion, you know, the internet boom. That's late 90s. So 1999, I started trying to interview and I think well I got some skills. I when I was an IT person so I got that and I know a little bit about corporate development because being a banker and I started interviewing the only real company on the east coast at the time of internet you know abilities was Price Line and they had a job for corporate development perfect. So I get an offer from them but I said I want to wait want to wait till I get my bonus for 1999 which gets paid at the end of February 2000. So I go and I get my bonus check and I'm ready to start and that's when of course that's when the NASDAQ peaked thereby having gone long internet a week before the peaked >> ends up and it it proved though I shouldn't be a trader having just the absolute wrong way >> and you know Price Line has its difficulties after that our stock went from where we were when we went public we in a week or so we were worth 30 billion which back then was real money that meant something back then and by the time I joined I joined after the I you know a few months after the IPO I joined we're probably down to about 15 billion that's now you know February March of 2000 in nine months our market cap is now down to just a couple of hundred million >> wow >> and our stock is now trading at a dollar a share we're going to get you this because it's dropping below a dollar a share but stick with it We do a reverse split to make sure we don't get delisted. So it goes to $6 a share. I stay and I've been there 27 on my 27th year.

6:54 >> Wow. >> And we went from that that now reverse split $6. And in last summer we came very close to $6,000. >> Wow. >> Over that you know a little more than a quarter of a century up a thousand times. >> And you know market cap was peing around 180 billion. Remember it's a few hundred million. >> Yeah. It's amazing. >> It's been a good ride so far. But of course, you never stop. Every day is a new adventure. Every day is you got to and a big headline in the FT when I had an interview with it, I said, "Got to fight for a customer every day."

7:27 >> How do you think about this the lessons from that internet era in terms of the current AI wave? Because we're seeing this massive shift in market cap. You think like this is a premier explosion of new things of all these recover everything just like in the late 90s the optimism of technologies everything is going to be wonderful but then you get a little bit of the backlash I mean there's backlash then too and now I guess it's just it's just bigger than it was then >> the numbers are much bigger the issues at hand are much bigger the pluses and the minuses so but I do see a lot parallels.

8:07 >> Yeah, because you know when I look at it right now some companies clearly have enormous revenue bases. you know, OpenAI and Anthropic are rumored to have 30 to $50 billion in revenue run rate each. And you know, in parallel, you see companies that are extremely highly valued, 10 billion, etc. that don't necessarily have even revenue yet. And if you look at the internet era, I think it was something like 450 companies went public in 99, 450 went public in the first few months of 2000. Maybe 500 went public before that. So you had 1500 companies, of which what two dozen are left at most?

8:40 >> Maybe. you know the other,480 are gone and so do you think the same thing will happen to the AI set of companies do you think something different will happen like and those are IPOs by the way those are the very strongest or perceived to be strongest companies right >> right well I I I wouldn't want to even guess at what the ratio of success to failures will be this time around versus that time versus any other time when there was incredible boom and you So if we go over the last 150 years, there always been these kind of springing further back.

9:16 >> Yeah. >> Speculative booms that create tremendous innovation. People coming in just both money and people. I mean California, you know, the 49ers, I mean, everybody's running off to the hills to gold and it was going to great. And I'm sure there were a lot of companies selling, you know, axes and hammers. >> Yeah. Detroit auto boom, same thing. You know, we've seen this before. >> Exactly. And how many? So, I don't know. But I this is not new. And there'll be a great deal of disappointment. There'll be a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money. Of course, that's just the nature of how our economies work. And when they're speculative bubbles, that will bring a lot, but that doesn't mean that there aren't a lot of companies actually real. How do you think as a as a founder running a company or as a CEO, you should make the decision in terms of whether to keep going or whether to sell? It's kind of like, okay, Price Line is worth a couple hundred million dollars and the decision was made. We'll keep going no matter what. And there may or may not have been options in terms of exits. I have no idea. but in today's era, there's quite a few options in terms of exits. Should people mainly be thinking about exiting right now, do you think? Do you think they should keep going?

10:26 >> Yeah, I think that's right. I don't think we can give a a rule a general rule without knowing what the facts that specific situation are. And by the way, there were times early in the day where price would have been happy somebody made an offer. >> It really depends a lot on what the situation is, how confident is management and people who have put the money in that there is going to be a vulture and how conservative are you?

10:54 What are you really trying to do? Are you trying to accomplish something? The goal is to actually make something that matters or are you just here to make money? And nothing wrong with that. I'm not against that. Just you got to understand what is your motivation? What are you trying to achieve? We have on average I don't know if you're American male for hell because I think that's what I looked at. I have a 78 year expected lifespan when you're born. Of course, the longer you live, the higher the whatever it is. And how are you going to spend those years? what is important to you, what do you want, what's the meaning to it, >> and I'll let the people who are actually involved in those situations decide. I would not I would not give them general advice.

11:33 >> Makes sense. So I mean back to booking you know one of the categories that you all obviously are really crucial to is travel and there's a number of the nextg sort of AI companies who've started experimenting with things like open AI had checkout in chat GPT and you know one of the main use cases was travel and then they canceled that feature and I think at the time booking went up 8% on the news. What what do you think didn't work there or what what do you think how do you think people should think about travel through the lens of AI?

12:08 >> So I think we should back up a little so everybody understands what's going on here. So in any type of situation you'll have people who are not that knowledgeable about industry or about how things actually happen in a business. And so from the outside it looked rather easy to oh this will be easy u AI will take care of travel at all the travel companies won't be worthwhile won't be worth anything and so and that was why companies like ourselves took a big hit as some of the new models were dropped that had a much better way of doing agentic commerce or so was perceived at the time and then when the decision when people make announce we're not going to do that like when open AI said we're not planning to be a merchant of record trying to or we're not even going to keep in this app type of way of doing commerce. We're not doing that. Then people say, "Oh, well that I was wrong. I'm not going to worry about it as much." And it flips the other side. The truth is the way we look at AI is an incredible beneficial tool and a way for us to be able to do our mission easier, hopefully cheaper and better for our customers.

13:25 All business, what is the purpose of a business? A business is to do something of value to its customers. We have two kinds of customers. We got travelers and we got partners. We are in the middle of that or marketplace. How can we do it better? AI, particularly AI using large language models and other things like that can help make it a much more valuable method for people travelers to get the information they need to do what they want to do and beneficial to our partners. That's thing now the idea of chatting you know no longer having one method I wouldn't read too much into that one way or the other. Mhm.

14:08 >> Yeah, that makes sense. You know, it's interesting because I'm in the middle of Silicon Valley where people are very AGI pilled, right? We people strongly believe that AI will drive all sorts of things and in some cases it will and in some cases it'll take longer and some cases it won't. You know, it reminds me a little bit of crypto where crypto was going to solve everything and it didn't, but it was very important for certain aspects of the financial system and I think stable coins and other things are increasingly valuable there. On the AI side, what a lot of people are really moving towards is more agentic work and that could be specific companies like DecaGon having agents that do customer support, but it's also the larger platforms like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc. providing increasingly self-driven systems, codecs or cloud co-work, you know, some of the things Gemini is doing. And one of the arguments people are making is that the nature of UI is going to change and you're going to have agents doing transactions on your behalf and sourcing things like trips or figuring out your travel itinerary for you or buying or purchasing the the actual different aspects of travel.

15:14 A a do you think that's a a correct vision of the world and b do you think or how do you view that interacting with booking and what you all provide as a service? >> All right. So again we want to reduce this to understanding what does the customer want many people with travel find it very frustrating I know that you know that we all travel find very frustrating trying to put together a complicated trip with family let's say multiple destinations different things you want to do it's complex and it's pain and you start planning it then you stop because it's just too much of a pain and everybody would like somebody else many people would like somebody else to do it for In fact, that's why you'll find very wealthy people have travel concier people who are actually human beings who really understand the needs of that customer, what they really like, not do a lot of it, the hard work for them.

16:05 People aren't quite in that wealth zone. They'll have their partner or their spouse try and do it for them. I'll be perfectly honest, so I'm exposing myself here, but I'll say it. Okay. My wife and I sometimes argue about, okay, who's going to have to do all the travel planning for this trip? because it can be frustrating, etc. Now, with AI, the beauty is it's going to make it so much easier and it's doing it right now. We are doing it right now. And let's use that generic term, let's call it an agent. So, I can't wait until we booking holdings in our companies are offering up these personalized agents that are that know everything about you, everything you want and able to do so much more for you than any human travel agent could ever do because the machine never forgets anything. The machine has an infinite amount of permutation and rapidly look through and choose what is the best lane and it can go down and then back up. That doesn't work. Why?

17:02 This doesn't fit that. and can come back with. Now, people always want some agency. So, they make the decision themselves or at least confirm they want it. Most people are for the most part a complicated thing. They don't want to double check, double check the van or whatever, which is different than say a business person says, "I got to go from New York to Chicago." And you know, your assistant, your human assistant is doing it for you. That's like an agent doing it for you. It knows what flight you need and all that. That's great. But when it's complicated, you want that agency. So we at booking holding all our companies we are doing that right now.

17:36 In fact if you go to penny which is price lines a a gent ai system and I just did it the other night. I put in a very complex need for a travel with the family where it was my wife and I we want to go up in the front of the bus. I want the young adults who are adults but I'm paying so I want them in the back of the bus. they're starting so I got two cabins now. there. One person has to go back to a different city. We're going to Europe, going to a city. We're not we're not actually doing the trip from that city where we're going to land. How we going to get from where the other should we have the hotel where we land and then travel the next day to the other city or should we go that night? How are we going to do it?

18:17 What restaurant? All the things. And I did it on Priceeline Penny and it was incred. Oh, I also added other things. I told it that by the way, I got a lot of frequent flyer miles. So, should I be used by miles or should I use it cash and for which ones? And it was just beautiful how it went back and forth and asked me questions like, "How many miles do you have with each airline?" And I'm giving it and then we're going through the flight part and how much of the cost. And by the way, we ended up as I suspected I'm using my miles for the upfront part for my wife and I. We're paying cash for the kids and the flights. We're going to go to the hotel u in the city that we land in. The next day we're going to get a shelf. It was wonderful. Wonderful. And that's what we want even more. So here's the real core thing is when things go wrong and things go wrong in travel and nobody's fault.

19:08 Many times weather mechanics it happens. Okay? You want to have that one point of contact that can fix everything because travel is like dominoes. One thing falls over and it all starts falling over. And that's the beauty with AI being able to figure out being able to look ahead. What can we do? My goal is to have a system that actually we are able to predict well enough what the problem be before it happens and suggest changing fixing. I have so many examples of this but I see the future >> I guess at a sort of generic level because you know your team on on a call that we had pri prior said that penny adoption which again is this agentic tool that you built for price line has doubled every month for the p past few months and it's generated a lift in conversion plus faster search or a path to booking lower cancellation you know higher customer success so it seems like it's working in really interesting ways are there a common set of use cases is that you know you think are most common for Penny? Are there you know specific things that it doesn't do well that you just need the underlying models to get better for? I'm a little bit curious about >> well the actual we have some areas where we're coming out with some new things on it but here's something really important asked me the questions you say it's so great but you tell me it's not really doing much you know the numbers really show up much in the numbers yet because it's still really really small in terms of the absolute number. We got to talk scale here. You know, last year we didund 86 billion dollars worth of travel. That's a lot of travel. Okay?

20:38 You know, we did over a billion room nights. So, you know, the actual numbers there's a lot. Well, part of it is we're not pushing it really fully. Now, this one of the issues that I always want to think about is what's the cost of this? And that's not so easy to understand. What is the cost? That's what's developable of running it. How many tokens are we consuming? where or how many times are they coming back and forth? we're doing tell me how much was the cost of us getting that trip for that person and what is our ROI going to be then the next thing is well what's the return long term lifetime value do they come back the loyalties up what how much and will it change these are things that we don't know yet that we're going to have to continue to work on develop so we know and by the way the whole thing of token economics now which model should we be using for which purpose and when and stuff And you know obviously you can get tokens a lot cheaper in certain regards to different models can be a lot cheaper and that's something that we have to look at very closely too. So it is fascinating that we can do things that I I'm so thrilled that we do and for example things like using customer service right now customer service where we're using AI it's it's great it happens much faster you know instead of having to staff your humans and at peak time somebody's going have to wait for somebody to pick up. We've all been in that line that queue waiting for someone to pick up and we hate it.

22:06 But now with AI, the computer can pick pick it up. It's not a problem. And solve the problem even better and faster. You never will have in the future where you finally you talk to a human. The human says, "I'm sorry. You have to be on hold again while I get somebody else who can solve that problem, which he by then you want to throb somebody. AI will solve that problem." But here's the question again about that is sometimes though you want to figure out because people want to talk to humans sometimes you got to balance that because what you don't want to do is end up yeah you can do it all AI but actually that's not what the customer want in the end it's always what's best for the customer. Yeah, that makes sense. And I I think you said on your Q1 call that customer service costs are already down about 10%.

22:55 >> Well, per reservation looking about 10%. >> Oh, let's just go let's go with this. Just >> our costs per customer service >> per contact are down. >> That's great. Customer satisfaction is up. That's even better. But we have to make sure that we are able to always recognize some customers want a human being and some customers are, you know, happy as could be through AI. >> Yeah, that makes sense. I mean, I I think you also mentioned that you're investing something like $550 million of cost savings into AI and platform on that on that same quarterly call.

23:34 Where are you investing it or where where are you putting the brunt of that both capital and effort? Yeah. So we and the amount we're investing is actually higher. We talked about 700 million approximately this year is being invested but it's in many many different areas not just you know developing more AI though AI it's there's definitely money going into call it tech enablement but there different projects different areas I would not put that all into say oh you're investing in techn in that's not co there are lots of areas of investing let me talk to them on the call that's not what's important is the idea that you've got savings things.

24:13 You've got money, you got cash flow, how much should you be putting in reinvesting in a company, how much should you be looking perhaps acquisitions and how much should you be handing back to shareholders? And that's always a balance trying to figure out what's the right ratio. What is it? And really is the first thing is do we believe investing in the top green is going to give a positive ROI that's sufficient to justify doing that or after that are their acquisitions. And if you can't do either of those then get the money back to the shareholders because they can then invest it better than you can. And that's what I've always believed in.

24:49 >> Makes a lot of sense. And I think you you folks did something like a record 4 billion in Q1 in terms of buybacks and other sort of returns to investors. >> You know, and I really am very proud of the fact that over the last let's say dozen years or so, we've bought back approximately 40% of the outstanding shares. That's good. And we offer a dividend. We have a nice dividend. So in the fourth quarter was we bought back $3.6 billion worth of stock. We gave out approximately, you know, over 300 million in a dividend. And in addition, we also were paying for the taxes for the equity grants that vested and you had to, you know, pay the taxes do it by with withholding the shares that part of the vest. That's another 300 million or so. So, a lot of money making sure it's going back to the shareholders. if we don't think that we can use it properly ourselves. That's I I really this come to me from investment banking background maybe back then or maybe trading where companies that just build up huge amounts of cash and they're not doing anything with it and they're not giving it back to the older like that seemed like the right thing. I think one last thing that that you mentioned earlier, one thing that you mentioned earlier that I thought was really important is just the scale of your business and I think it's at enormous scale and that's kind of underappreciated as an asset. And so as an example and you closed 2025 with what I believe is 8.6 million alternative accommodation listings. So that's people listing homes or rooms or other things for rentals. It could be a variety of different types of u of spots. but that creates a really interesting, I think, durable asset. So, you know, I feel like people overstate sometimes how AI is going to transform certain businesses. It's obviously going to be transforming everything. But there are also things that are very hard to build and that are very durable in the long run that if you have an agent, it's going to go and book a an alternative accommodation with you because you have all them listed, right? You have the marketplace built. Are there other aspects of your business that you view especially durable going into this era?

26:53 >> So, on that one, here's a good point. I think you're right that I think it's underappreciated by some people probably I'd say Americans because in the alternative accommodations area obviously big player is someone who invested in it very early Airbnb congratulations on your part but a lot of people don't recognize that globally when you look at our amount of listings and you look at Airbnb it's not that different and even more so is when you look at our total amount of transactions our room night for all of the company. You see that we are approximately three quarters the size of Airbnb and that's just our alternative combination of the whole much bigger hotel business on top of that and and you know over the last 5 years we've been growing for the last 5 years we've grown faster than Airbnb in the alternative accommodation area we do like to like we've been growing faster the last 5 years it's a great product great thing it's going very well your question though does that give us an advantage so to speak against somebody who comes in, all they're doing is creating a nice AI authentic type system and how you going to get the connectivity to these players or not.

28:04 And I'll say there is no such thing as a moat. There is no such thing as something where you're going to be protected against innovation. And that's what I try and get across to the team. You got 25,000 employees and I try and get this across to everybody that every day we've got to be fighting. And yeah, today we have a competitive advantage on areas absolutely but those can go away tomorrow. The only way to win the only way to win long term is to continue to develop new services, new ways to do things, come up with this agentic travel assistant that I want this universally that will make it so much better. That's the only way and working on the other side by the way also very important with the partners ways that we're helping them a lot again a lot of people understand the complexity involved it's not just get the inventory loaded into the database anybody can do that that's nothing we got thousands of people who are dealing with hotels and other property managers how can we do your business better what do you need where you need more demand where are you hurting what can you doing something your system is better it's so much more complex than I believe many other people who look at this industry from afar and what secondly and this is something that really people don't understand is the regulatory framework around the world dealing with travel is a very highly regulated now it's not a bank okay got it and it's not an air you know airlines that's that or it's you know not drug disco but it is very regulated And it's complex and you've got to meet it. And if you want to be merch of record in travel, you got to adhere to a whole bunch of rules etc. And by the way, around the world much more than the US around the world those regulations are increasing or not saying so exponentially, but let's say they're increasing. That too is something that if you're big at scale, you can afford to deal with that. And if you think you're just going to come in and do this business and knock away these very big players, I say you should really understand what the business is before you decide to commit your capital.

30:19 >> So I guess if you reflect on life or you reflect on things looking forward because I mean you've had an incredible run, right? And and the run is by no means over, you know, you still have so much stuff you're working on and doing. In >> fact, I think we're just a good start. No, this is I totally the most exciting time ever. Ever because of the ability to build these new things. >> Yeah, I I I agree. I mean, I think this is a transformative moment.

30:44 >> Totally. >> in terms of this technology and the world and society and everything else and you know, it's so exciting to be in the middle of all this and obviously you all are playing a really prominent role in one aspect of that or a key aspect. you know, you you joined Priceeland to your point when it's in the hundreds of millions. The stock is now, you know, $130 billion plus company. It was 180 early in the year.

31:03 I'm sure it'll go back there over time given you know all the things we're working on. Fingers crossed >> if we do what we're supposed to do. >> How do you think about just like what you hope to accomplish more broadly in life or how what is the right measure of a person or you know of an outcome or of the next few years or I'm just sort of curious because I you know we we chatted very briefly earlier and I I felt like you're somebody who's thought deeply about more than just you know how will I drive bookings forward although obviously you think about that quite a bit. I I'm just sort of curious like you know what is the right measure in general that you're measuring yourself against or how are you thinking about the next couple years?

31:41 >> Yeah. Well, look I am I'm very blessed. I've been very lucky in my life that I'm in a position that I can pretty much do what I'd like to do. And sometimes people ask me why do you continue do what you're doing? I said because I think I think being part of this is doing something good. And yeah, we're not curing cancer. I know that. But I think that travel is a very important thing for a lot of people. It really adds to their their lives. You know, we can do it better mission is to make it easier for everybody to experience the world. And I believe that does improve everybody and improves the world by getting people to travel more, experience other cultures, other people, etc. And we can do it right and make it easier. That's great. I want to be part I want to help do that. I do believe that's adding something. And you know that's part of thing everybody needs to understand. I believe why are you doing what you're doing? You only get one life. You get one life. Now sometimes people don't have choices at all. That's the only job they have. They need to afford to be able to support their family. I got that. I'm I know that. but for people you know who have a little bit of ability to choose, I'd say choose wisely. Choose wisely because you will not get that time back. And some people have different ideas of what will they believe their life should be and that whatever it is as long going that path that's great. My biggest fear too much is people who taken paths that in the end they're middle-aged or later and they're a little bit wisful about gee I wonder if I done X and I'll be perfectly honest and well I hope to not too many of my my law school classmates you know this I hope but I fear that too many of them they chose going to law school cuz that was just kind of like a path and then they became lawyers just cuz you know that's normally what you do when you come out of law a couple where I didn't but many people did and then it paid really well and it was easy and their comfort zone and then there you know later in life it's kind of like gee what did I do and that's what I think everybody should really think hard about making sure you choose wisely >> you know one thing we've talked about quite a bit is the AI impact on jobs and you know there's this claim jobs apocalypse and all these other things coming would love to hear your views on that and how you think about that.

34:08 >> So it is really interesting. I mean we take it in terms of the general sense of technology being job replacement. >> That's something that happened forever. We we look at the way the agrarian societies went more towards urbanization as technology fast industrial revolution. We can go through anything like that. And so we know that happens. The issue that's really interesting though is the speed of the change. So if you look right now where we are, I've seen it happen over my time just this company. So at the beginning of the company, we were dealing at Bookie.com.

34:47 We acquired Booking.com. They were doing hotel reservations in over 40 languages, which meant all the content, all the description, everything was in 40 languages and the customer service 40 languages. All that is wonderful. There were a lot of people involved that because all the translation this is now in the odds it's like 2005 all the translation are done by like human beings there's no machine translation at all time and all those customer service human beings we had people in all these 40 different languages are done that was a big deal now >> now we have machine translations all those jobs are gone there's nobody that that's all those jobs disappear so what happened to those people where' they go what jobs are they now taking what are they doing so that's an example where we see that happen in real time and now we have the issue not only of that now the fear of well will I get a job coming out of university because although jobs seem to be gone because what was necessary an analyst and a financial department in a bank or a corporation's job is not being done through basically AI so it's jobs aren't necess what's going how it's going to collect now we know also the other side that new jobs aren't going to be created. We all know that also by history looking at that.

36:05 The problem is the speed of job disappearance and new job creation. Those rates are not happening probably at the same rate. And the second thing is what about the people who are not able to make that change. So I think what I always think about the typical person I think about is a 50some year old truck driver >> and when the person who was making a very nice living and felt very good about himself because he or she is driving an 18-wheeler across the US and feeling responsible helping contribute good job and now a suen that's completely automated.

36:42 >> You're out of the job. >> What are we going to how are we going to retrain that pro? What is that person? That person's going to feel really bad. And we've seen in society how these type of force dislocations have caused problems in the past. When you look at that >> and I I I'm concerned that there's not enough thought being done about how are we going to deal with these changes if they happen too quickly or not.

37:07 >> Societies hold absolutely it's always benefit for technology and creating be able to do more things but we have to how are we going to deal with the flip side the cost that come with it. Do you have a do you have a specific viewpoint or proposal in terms of what we should be doing there? >> Well, I'll tell you one thing that we do here at our company. One thing that we're always doing is trying to upskill people. I am I'd say every day I'm talking with my head of C my CH overhead of you. How can we do the best training?

37:36 How can we get people so they are ready for the future? How do we get them so they are become AI literate? It's probably a word that mean I don't that AI be able to do AI and that's really important because even if we end up that we can't replace or retrain or put someone else at least they are better skilled for a job somewhere else and I feel a real obligation for that. Now that's that's our point of view. I think everybody should be thinking that way too. It's good for our company. It's a positive on our life for somebody to be able to use new tools in a better way.

38:06 They're more productive. That's great. It's good. But it also helps them for their career. Now sometimes I could see somebody in short term saying I don't want to spend the money for that and it's not the right way to think about it. Now we could have governments coming in with certain types of programs trying to come up with ways but retraining by governments over the last 50 years really hasn't worked out so well. So I'm not sure that's the right way to go either. But I do believe this is something that I really would like to hear more conversation about how to do it because I do I am concerned if we end up in a situation where people will start rejecting technology because of fear that will end up being bad for us as society and by the way other parts of the world are not going to have that problem and then we'll be disadvantaged.

38:53 I assure you in China they're they're not having that same thing about oh AI is bad and we shouldn't do it. That is not what's happening there. So I really think we got to talk honesty and open up building so we have the right conversations and do not end up on the bad side of people coming out and rejecting what actually are going to be good for society. >> That makes sense. Yeah. It's interesting too because I know that I know at least one group that has rerun consumer surveys on AI because there's this claim right now that people are very negative on AI and it turns out it depends on what the question you ask is. If you ask people, do you love, you know, using Chat GBT and Gemini and Claude and all the they're like, we love it and we'll pay more for it and it's wonderful and it's helping our lives in all these different ways or it's helping our kids with school or whatever it is. Then if you ask them, are you worried that AI will come and destroy your life and take your job and ruin your career and then of course people are like, I don't like it. And so I think the the questions are being asked a certain way on purpose and I think to your point, we need to be level-headed and say, okay, what's the real implication for different areas of the economy? how do we make sure that people benefit overall and how do we make sure that people can participate and that's very different from you know taking a pure doomer view or taking a pure sort of negative view on what's coming. So you know appreciate your perspective on that. You're so right.

40:10 And part of the problem is in a democracy, which we have, which I'm in favor of, you'll have people who are saying certain things because not missing what they believe, but they believe we'll give them a vote. And that's also problematic in any in favor of democracy, but I'll be in favor of people being a little more honest what they're saying. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What's the real purpose? Yeah. 100%. >> Yeah. >> Thank you so much for joining today.

40:34 Really appreciate you know you sharing your various views across all these topics. It's been really great chatting with you. >> Well, thank you and congratulations on all the things that you've accomplished. It's pretty impressive. >> Find us on Twitter at No Prior Pod. Subscribe to our YouTube channel if you want to see our faces. Follow the show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen. That way, you get a new episode every week. And sign up for emails or find transcripts for every episode at no-briers.com.

Summary

Glenn Fogle, CEO of Booking Holdings, discusses the evolving landscape of travel and technology, emphasizing that there are no permanent competitive advantages in business. He reflects on his career journey, the impact of AI on travel, and the importance of continuous innovation to meet customer needs.

- There is no "moat" in business; competitive advantages can vanish quickly.
- Continuous innovation and understanding customer needs are crucial for long-term success.
- Fogle's career path included roles in finance and law before joining Price Line, which evolved into Booking Holdings.
- AI is seen as a beneficial tool for enhancing customer experiences in travel, but its implementation requires careful consideration.
- The travel industry is complex and highly regulated, making it challenging for new entrants to disrupt established players.
- Fogle emphasizes the importance of investing in employee training and upskilling to prepare for technological changes.
- He expresses concern about the speed of job displacement due to AI and the need for proactive measures to support affected workers.
- Booking Holdings has significantly invested in AI, aiming to improve customer service and operational efficiency.

Questions Answered

What is the reality of competitive advantages in business?

There are no permanent competitive advantages; businesses must continuously innovate to stay relevant. Understanding the complexities of the market and customer needs is crucial before investing.

Will the AI industry face a similar fate to the dot-com bubble?

While the AI sector is experiencing a boom with many companies being highly valued, history suggests that many will not survive long-term. Speculative bubbles often lead to significant failures, but some companies will emerge successfully.

How can AI enhance the travel booking experience?

AI can create personalized travel agents that remember user preferences and handle complex travel arrangements more efficiently than human agents, providing a tailored experience.

What is the importance of returning capital to shareholders?

Companies should return excess capital to shareholders if they cannot find effective ways to invest it. This includes stock buybacks and dividends, which can provide better returns for investors.

How should individuals approach their career choices?

Individuals should carefully consider their career paths to avoid future regrets. Many may choose paths based on comfort or societal expectations rather than personal fulfillment.

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