Transcript
0:00 Hi guys. The S&P is near all-time highs and my portfolio is near all-time highs as well. 257,000 US dollars. Instead of celebrating, my contrarian brain is doing the exact opposite. I'm getting really nervous and I'm so close on selling two positions. Today, we are looking at my portfolio, updating the fair value of my holdings after things and decide if it's time to sell a couple of positions including the stock that is probably the most loved among my holdings. Let's jump straight in. Here is my current portfolio.
0:43 Booking Holdings 6%, Novo Nordisk 7.6%, Microsoft 8%, Adobe 10%, Hims & Hers almost 11%, SoFi 14%, $43,000 in cash, 26% in the one and only Duolingo. Chill Win Lensmana asks, "If you don't mind sharing, what's your average buy price for both Adobe and Duolingo?" I don't mind. Here you go. This column right here are my entry prices.
1:20 Duolingo $122, Adobe $280. If you want, you can pause the video and vote now before I buy. Cast your opinion. Which stock would you sell today and which one is absolutely to hold? Let's start with the big elephant in the room, my top holding, Duolingo. As we can see, many of you think it's just insane and irresponsible to have all this money invested in Duolingo. If it doesn't work out, what's left of your reputation? It's annihilated just like the stock. Now, let's be honest when everybody is against you and everybody thinks you're wrong, it's kind of hard to not to second-guess yourself. So, I've been thinking a lot about it.
2:09 However, as a contrarian, this is actually a good reason to invest in Duolingo because it means that many people can change opinion and the price will go up. The last earning report does not look great. Total bookings are up 8% only. Margins compression. However, the most important part for me is that Luis von Ahn is delivering what he promised. User growth 23% year over year. Adri, how likely do you think 100 million DAU by 2028 is? I don't know, but I trust Luis.
2:48 >> This aggressive goal to try to get to 100 million daily active users. We feel good about that goal. We think we can make it. And if we do get there, kind of all things get better. Just just more users, you can make more money, all things get better. >> On this point, I want to show you something I noticed after watching the conference call like three times. I think Luis kind of misspoke. Check it out. Q2 daily active user 58.7 million, but listen to this.
3:18 >> I we do expect growth from both of them, but the contribution to our overall, I mean, we have, you know, 60 some million daily active users. >> Again? >> You know, 60 some million daily active users. >> So, on earnings day, the CEO revealed 60 million daily active users adding 1.3 million in just 1 month. Accelerating growth and making the goal of 100 million possible. My conservative fair value is at $160 per share and the base fair value is at 230.
3:54 I'm not selling a single share at today's price. Next, SoFi, my latest acquisition. I bought shares right after earnings and reptile friends 84 is asking, "You think SoFi is still attractive at the current price?" I'm up 22% in just a couple of weeks, so it's clear that there is less margin for mistakes. However, I'm not selling. My base fair value for SoFi is $29, but I expect these recent highs and the 200-day moving average to act as a resistance. If we clear this technical level, the price might skyrocket.
4:38 However, do not buy now only to panic sell if the price get rejected back down. Also, very important, do not trust YouTubers like myself. I share my opinion, but what you do with your money is your responsibility. You should have your opinion, understand valuation, try not to lose. Next, Hims. The last earning report was mixed. Great revenue growth and acceleration just as I expected, but lost a lot of money, which I did not expect. I updated my valuation, and it looks all right. $40 for Hims would be fair, and we are trading around the 28. So, there is an upside potential, and we are a bit undervalued. For now, I'm holding, but this stock is very volatile. If it bounces back up to $60 tomorrow, I will not stick around to see if it breaks this technical resistance. Adobe, not so much to say about it because they report earnings on a different calendar than everybody else. September 10. I want to see who becomes the new CEO because I believe with less uncertainty, the market sentiment might change and turn this losing position into a profitable one. Microsoft, thank you Microsoft. Great returns. I'm up 30% from my entry, which is wonderful.
6:17 However, I managed to mistake. Anyway, listen what I was saying 4 months ago. Personally, I also really like Microsoft right now. Some weeks ago, I sold my Airbnb position to buy Microsoft at $380 per share. I'm already up 19% at the time of recording, but Airbnb is up as well, so we will see over time if that was a smart choice or not. Airbnb is doing even better, up 40%.
6:50 So, this is a classic as soon as I sell, the price will skyrocket. Now, Airbnb is finally fairly priced, while Microsoft remains slightly undervalued. I have my fair price at $550. However, I reached this valuation because I always consider Microsoft a company with almost zero risk. In my mind, it's always been like safer than a 10-year Treasury bond.
7:20 But lately, I believe the risk profile is changing. 70% of Microsoft AI revenue comes from OpenAI, and this is too much. If something happens to OpenAI, Microsoft get caught in the middle. So, even if I love Microsoft, I have several issues with OpenAI. First, I do not trust Sam Altman. He gives me this slimy feeling. I think it's quite shady, right? Second, the business model remain unproven.
7:56 OpenAI, show us the numbers. I really hope the margins are not zero, otherwise everybody is in big trouble. Third, long-time OpenAI executive Brad Lightcap leaves. One departure, nothing unusual, but 10 key managers all leaving one after another is very unusual. Ed Olsen for the full list. >> In the past few months alone, nearly a dozen leaders at OpenAI have left the company. This week, for example, just one day before the COO announced his departure, OpenAI's head of ethics, Chloé Bakalar, also left. And just weeks before she left, OpenAI's head of safety systems, Johannes Heidecker, also departed. That departure was preceded by chief futurist Josh Akyiam's exit. And just weeks before that, we also saw exits from Bill Peebles, OpenAI's head of Sora, as well as Kevin Weil, OpenAI's head of science. But it doesn't stop there. Srinivas Narayanan, OpenAI's head of B2B applications, also left. So did the head of robotics, Caitlyn Kalinowski, and so did chief communications officer Hanna Wong. All of these people left within the past several months, which begs a pretty important question.
9:19 Why are they all leaving? >> OpenAI's situation is very concerning and might have a negative impact on Microsoft and the whole market. Anyway, I'm still holding, but taking everything into account, I'm considering selling. Also because Meta is trading at a cheaper valuation and 170 of you guys commented suggesting buying Meta. Next, Novo Nordisk. I've been holding for 8 months now going up and down with basically zero returns. If something can go wrong with Novo, you can be sure it will like the recent drug fails in trial. However, I'm still convinced it is a good investment. Listen to the CEO.
10:06 >> We have announced that 5 million prescriptions has been right now written for the Wegovy pill. But maybe the the fine detail is that first 1 million prescription took us 11 weeks to do without any competitor in the market. This last 1 million prescription took us 4 weeks to do while there's a competitor out there trying really hard to take those prescriptions away from us and we have not allowed that. The pill is doing incredibly well in US.
10:35 And now we have done actually seeing the same thing repeat itself in UK where we have 300,000 patients on the pill. And in UAE where we came second to market. We have now 50% of the market in just 3 weeks. So that's a good that's a good launch. >> I believe the worst is behind us and I reiterate my fair value to 70 to 80 dollars per share and I expect the stock to go higher. Lastly, Booking Holdings.
11:09 Strong company, excellent management, dominant in their category. However, my enthusiasm is slowly fading away. My fair value is $230. So it's not crazy undervalued like it was 3 months ago. I'm ready for weak earnings. Clearly, I hope not but I'm ready for a drop. And if a drop happen, it may be a very good opportunity to buy. That video only got a 3,000 views because if I forecast right, no one watches. If I'm wrong, everybody does.
11:48 Anyway, I feel secure having Booking in my portfolio. Great company, safe investment, but it's getting harder and harder to justify the holding it when I compare it to an Uber, for example. Similar market cap, but Uber has doubled the revenue and is growing much faster. Uber also ranked second in your suggestions with 77 votes. So, Microsoft and Booking are the two names I'm considering liquidating, but as usual, I want to know your opinion. In the pinned comment, you will find this week's rankings. You can give a minus one point to the company I should sell and plus one to the one I should absolutely hold.
12:32 Like, subscribe. Thank you. Thank you for watching. Peace out. Charlie, what are you doing? Come.