Transcript
0:00 So, obviously I stayed another week in Maine. it's hard to get me out of Maine. It's my, happy place. so I've been doing this now for two years. I've been doing a weekly podcast with Anthony Pompiano since April of last year. the weekly that I do on the YouTube has been 90% preparing people for how AI would disrupt macro, how it would disrupt the market, multiple compression, all kinds of things with the ultimate endgame for me and endgame is an important word because it's going to be highlighted in here. Beware of the endgame bias.
0:42 the endgame which is that AI would lead to a massive boom in entrepreneurship. It would disrupt all public companies and that disruption would begin much sooner than people realize really beginning when AI adoption started which obviously happened this year with AI agents. on an weekly we talk probably about 50% about crypto when you average them all together. when there's nothing going on in Bitcoin, we don't talk as much about it, but it's really more crypto.
1:16 This video is the most important one that I've done because the ultimate endgame for me was a point where Bitcoin starts to show up in its third wave, in its adoption phase, in the same way that AI did a year ago. And I've said repeatedly that I believe crypto will be viewed by everyone on the investment side a year from now in the same way that the infrastructure trade is today. The difference is Bitcoin does not get disrupted by AI. It is the purest AI trade. So if I am right and you guys watch me for some reason, whether it's to provoke thought, it's not for my looks, it's not for my ability to speak, it is because I must bring something to the table that gives you guys something to include in your own process. I'm not here to tell you what's going to work. I believe Bitcoin will go higher. I believe crypto will go higher because as Mark Andre said, why Bitcoin matters. If you haven't read the paper and you've been watching this video, it is now time to make sure that you watch it. You read it this weekend and you go see why Mark Andre said that the Bitcoin white paper was one of the most important advancements in the computer and where we would be 20 years from when he wrote that. And that was 2014. We are now at 2026. I'm sick and I have always been sick of listening to people debate Bitcoin. It's going to hear. is going to hear if I heard another person doubt that it's going to go higher. Our job is not to g to guess.
2:49 Our job is to try and put together a framework that we believe and when the tape starts to tell you that something is important is going on, that's when you want to start to pay attention. I mentioned two weeks ago on Anony's podcast and on mine that I believe that the end of July would be looked back on as the most important inflection point for all of us making money. situational awareness bottom with VS up at extreme levels. The market structure has clearly changed in the stock market.
3:17 Tokenization is coming and people are going to have to look at the facts on the equation. I'm going to go through a lot on Bitcoin today, but a lot of it is combining and it's number four that matters for all of you. Bitcoin is a hedge to the time risk that all of you are going through. If you're an economist trying to tell me about the jobs market and the inflation data and all of the garbage that is associated with looking back and thinking that your job is still relevant compared to where it was five years ago, six years ago, seven year, everything has changed. The academic fed is no longer relevant.
3:51 Whether it's hawkish or dovish is no longer relevant. It might be relevant for a week, but it hasn't been relevant for a long time. And this video is going to try to take you through the journey of all the noise that you listen to every week and how if you're trying to make money and you're coming in to watch me from this point on until Bitcoin goes back under the 200 day moving average. That'll be the point that I bail out and say, "Okay, I'm not talking about it anymore." Until that day comes, start to focus on the AI macro nexus that is coming. Let's start now.
4:27 All right. So, I just want to make sure you guys see this. This is the thumbnail. I posted this on X. For the last year, we have watched AI speed up competition. I didn't care about the impact that AI would eventually have on getting us to Bitcoin until AI adap AI adoption was happening at the enterprise level which is clearly happening because you can see it with the fastest ARR growth for a company in the history of the world which is enthropic and using AI agents and once that happens and you speed up competition you speed up the ability of taking any idea and rebuilding it with no people that's what AI agents allow you to do innovation cycles compress in time.
5:11 Everything compresses in time. I said last week, AI agents can can work. Even with the pantry flirting and the eating and the lunch and the travel and all that, the best case scenario, 70 days is equal to a year. My gut from managing people for a long time and dealing with all the waste and the travel time and the drinking and all the things that go on is that it's more like 10 to one. So when people tell you year-over-year this is growing this much, it doesn't mean anything because that's human time. What ends up happening is terminal value starts to decay. And that's what this is meant to show. And that's what we've seen with the software names. At some point when the competition is speeding so fast, you can't value a company three years out anymore because the speed of change is going so fast that it eventually disrupts every single company. And that does mean including physical companies.
6:07 silver companies, oil companies, but they're the last in line, not the first in line. The first is Adobe. The first is the companies you've seen it go on. But eventually, the entrepreneurs get big enough, they get the ecosystem grows fast enough. That's what Stripe is all about. They are the ecosystem of entrepreneurs causing the destruction. They're just too small right now, but they're growing at exponential pace. And within three years, they will have disrupted all business's growth. And that's what you have to remember. the value of stocks on discounted cash flows in the future. It's all about growth and if we have no certainty of growth, how do you hedge that time risk? How do you hedge that growth? This thing is not disrupted by it. That is why it is the purest AI trade. So for the last time as a as AI speeds up and we start to get into the abundance world where deflation is the game, we're seeing that we're talking about anthropic being subject to deflation competition. the fastest growing company that has gone in a parabolic move. We're now worried that they are slowing.
7:13 This thing's breaking out today. Remember that as you're going through and thinking about things in your portfolio, you don't have to agree with me, but if you have a zero zero% position in this, you are saying there is 0% chance of this because everything in your portfolio will be disrupted. Which is why I'm doing these conversation the videos. It's also why I'm launching the crypto part of this too, which will go on the subscriber site. So, I want to do this because I am getting subscribers going, "What about this name? Are you still in this name? Is this name going higher?" Guys, I am not a stock picker. I am a thematic portfolio guy that writes spotlight pieces to highlight to you for yourself how they fit into the AI trade and then for you to go. I hate the fact that I have to put disclaimers on anything, but the reason you have disclaimers is because I'm here to give you guys education, not investment advice. If you're in a name and you haven't traded out of it, I trade all the time. I'm not going to come on here and say I've done this or done this based on on everything that I'm doing. I told you I reduced my positions in cryp or in the AI trade back in May and June and I moved the money into silver and Bitcoin. Those are my largest positions. Now, I still have Marll. It's a decent sized position. I moved into Eli Lily, which made new all-time highs this week. I've told you where I've been moving things. The application side is where I'm more interested, but I still have infrastructure names, but these names I'm sitting in, and I think a year from now, they'll be up more than the S&P, but I do not think they're going to be five baggers, six baggers, seven baggers. Do I think silver is going to outperform all those? Yes. Do I think Bitcoin's going to outperform it? Yes.
8:50 Do I think Ethereum is? Yes. Do I think micro strategy is yes. My goal is to educate you and empower you both to use AI and to get ready for the crypto merge which is coming. If you don't think about it and if you don't know enough about it, that's what I'm here for is to teach you guys. If you want to know more about crypto, if you're an RAIA, a financial advisor, and you've ignored it and your clients have asked for it, you can't ignore it anymore. Next year will be a huge year relative to the market.
9:20 And I will go through the reasons why, but the adoption phase of crypto is going to go through the same adoption phase we've we've seen with the infrastructure. The difference is there's no more growth assets left. You cannot believe a public company will be worth anything in three years relative to what it is today. They need to grow and growth is being disrupted by competition. Crypto is a tiny odd lot. The total size of the crypto market is around $3 trillion. The Russell 2000 is around three trillion. This is going to grow massively faster. And the size of it is going to grow because it is the guard rails for what's about to happen.
10:00 The endgame bias. The Fed will raise rates. Long-term rates will set off a collapse due to debt and deficit. Oil is going to 200. Inflation is too high. AI is a bubble. These are all the stories that I hear every single week. It's just pick your one. An economist said they're going to raise three time. I can go through this over and over again. These are noise. These are endgame bias by everyone. Everyone will tell you this can't go on. I get emails after emails saying this will end badly. Okay, I'm just going to buy some stuff, but this is going to end badly. It is going to end badly. But in my bad, it's not because of this. It's because of deflationary competition which causes abundance and changes the structure of the market. So if you for any reason listen to me every week and at least think that my view has some backing behind it based on the facts and the data and the amount of reading and things that I've done on the topics of AI. I use it all day long. You're going to get a Grotbot example today on how AI agents have now been democratized. So, if you can get that from an economist who's 59, if you can get that from an investment strategist who's 59, great. But the only way you can talk about these things is to have some historical domain experience. And if you have domain experience and you don't use AI, how can you possibly listen to anyone who does this? These were all wrong. They've all been wrong. Could they be right eventually? I I guess. But in the meantime, you're losing money. So, I think it's very important to stop with the endgame bias. People know what the endgame is. They say the same thing all the time. And the same people said oil is going to 200 or the same people saying inflation's too high. They're the same people say the Fed will raise rates. It's all the same story. And I know that because I have X to go prove it. That's all they do. And they write and they get paid for it. I'm not paid to be bullish. I'm actually the most bearish person I know on public equities. It's just not today. It's in the future. And maybe it never happens.
12:01 I'll change my views based on the basian framework that goes on. Here's tenure rates. I lived in Brazil for a long time. The currency was pegged the entire time I was there until they had to move the currency with the devaluation and then Morgan Stanley brought me back to take over the S&P book. This is a pegged currency. This is tenure rates in the US. How many people are giving you that this is going to blow off to the upside?
12:27 Have you seen the chart? This is a a wedge. This is just it. Yeah, that's all great except you're fighting the government. They don't want it to go higher. So, is it really the best bet to sit there and say they're going to let this go to 9 10%. Or is it a better bet to say we've watched this game before, they'll just keep doing this, but because Japan is having to do something in terms of raising rates, but their rates are lower than ours in terms of short rates. So, the yen and the BOJ situation is September will be a big event. The question is, was the yen signal what I thought it was? And as of right now, it absolutely was because the Treasury announces increased sizes of nominal end liquidity support, the most important news of the week, and helped get Bitcoin moving.
13:14 Then, of course, he couldn't stop there. Oh, could be more than four billion. We've seen this before. This is the old bazooka trick. This is the old I want to stop the market from targeting this there. They believe, as he said on CNBC, these are mispriced. This is not the right price for yields. He's going against GDP that's going higher. He's going against inflation that's higher than what the Fed has said. All of these things are true. You got PMIs in terms of the Philly Fed and the Empire new orders, which are basically at the same level that equates to a 60 PMI, which I've talked about for a year. the growth is good, but they're saying they don't want yields to go higher because we have a debt and deficit problem. And so history suggests not to dismiss Bessant's move on the yen. Basically going against intervention is a very very dangerous game particularly when it's coordinated against other countries. He's doing unconventional moves to try and help.
14:12 He's leaning on the Fed to help with FEMA. Again, when you see multiple stories going on, you have to be careful. Besson is seen as a political actor. He's focused on midterm. This is all noise, guys. This is just stuff going on. The academic Fed versus the inflation target of the future. I wrote this on a August 18th of 2025, almost a year ago to the day. And within there, this is before Worsh was chosen. I talked about how Scott Besson was interviewed on the AllIn podcast following the AI action plan. If you haven't listened to it, go listen to it again because remember Scott Bessant was heavily involved with choosing Kevin Worsh. They went through this and if this administration is one thing, if they bring someone in, they are going through a vetting process to figure out if they're going to agree with the way they view the world, which is very different than the way academics view the world. Besson in a recent interview with Nikkei. So this is he stressed that the Fed's role is now expanding far beyond traditional interest rate management and because of this the next Fed chair must be someone capable of thoroughly examining the institution itself not just inheriting old frameworks. Are the economists that you're paying to listen to still using old frameworks that they were taught in college because this administration wants them to examine it and change them. task forces. Besson argued the Fed's leadership should be proactive and forward-looking, able to anticipate how structural changes such as AIdriven productivity, fiscal dynamics, meaning the debt and deficit situation and geopolitical pressures will reshape the economy. The next Fed share in short must be an adaptive leader prepared to rethink the Fed's mission in light of the rapid innovation and fiscal realities. That's it in a nutshell. AI needs to raise money. It needs the back end of the curve for the next year to two years until the free cash flow for the people borrowing money gets to a level where they can just use free cash flow from their ROIC, assuming again they get there. Regardless, they don't want rates going higher and they understand this is happening because for the first time in a long time, we have a lot of supply coming to the market.
16:29 Broadcom's coming to the market with a massive deal. So, as you read this and go through it and pause it here, you will see that what you're witnessing and what's going on with Kevin Worsh, who is connected to Scott Bessant. The belief that people have was that there'd be no Fed independence. But somehow or another, people actually believe what Scott Besson wants is lower rates, but Worsh is just going to do whatever he wants.
16:59 So, we questions Fed independence, but on the same side, people are willing to say, "Well, no, no, no. He's going to raise rates." Even though I I I just I I'm a handicapper. That just doesn't seem like knowing this administration something that is going to be real. So, you can sit there and say that, but if the people that are saying that we're saying three rate hikes and they refuse to give up on the three rate hikes, even though we've had softer inflation data, we've had softer labor data, and we've had the yen signal. How are you being honest as a handicapper? There's new news that came in over the last two months and you haven't adjusted your view from three rate hikes. That is the main problem with listening to anyone right now on the Fed who's sitting there still saying rate hikes. Are they saying it because they believe it or are saying they because it want it? Are they saying because Iran is still going on and oil I'll show you the oil thing in a little while. Listen to the interview and just go through it. Then on July 6th, I wrote the art of unlearning the Fed. And this again, the inspiration came from that same podcast. Besson's belief that AIdriven productivity shifts demand. A forward-looking Fed has real merit. AI is progressing at an unprecedented pace.
18:07 And in a world defined by exponential innovation, relying on backward-looking models is too slow. If you believe, as I do, that the deflationary pressures from AI are about to accelerate and you believe that you should be, I don't know, shrinking the amount of meetings, you're actually trying to slow down time, you're trying to make sure that you're not moving too fast at this pace, going and doing everything he's doing, the task forces, the data, finding new data, finding new ways to look at inflation, whether or not it's the right thing to do, It's definitely something that has to be done and he's doing it.
18:47 So all these task forces are to adjust monetary policy the way it's been done. So using the old playbook is not there to build data centers and the rest would affect demand demand and could increase demand by a few tents. This is Kevin Worsh speaking at his press conference on the supply side of the economy to increase the potential output of the economy that could be considerably bigger. So his point on this is that short term the capital spending story might inflate inflation a little bit but the deflationary pressures that will come from the supply side of the economy changing in the future are far bigger if that's what he believes and he said in front of Congress at his testimony why should you doubt him at this point now he doesn't make the final decision on rates but we all know at this point unless there's an egregious way meaning unless the inflation data is surprising on the high side. At the end of the day, there's no way I can see him raising rates unless he's outvoted. I just don't see how it's going to happen. And again, I think it's a bad bet with the data that we've seen. So again, I'm going to go back to how important that week was.
19:54 The yen signal. Go read the paper if you haven't read it yet. It's the summertime. I know people have been kind of going through the motions. It was a brutal July for a lot of people in the AI trade. August so far has been a very good month despite what the noise you're hearing. Almost everything is up 3% for the month. We have a little back and forth. We go all over the place, but it's there. this is the part that I put in. Over the next 12 months, I expect agents to move rapidly from tools that assist humans to systems that increasingly act on their behalf. I'll show Grockbot today. That means more productivity, but it also means more pressure on employment, wages, tax receipts, and the political response required to manage the transition. The economic system will simultaneously be asked to finance unprecedented investment in comput infrastructure while adapting to a technology capable of reducing the need for human labor across an expanding number of industries. That is a fact. That's not a guess. All of that is true. All of it.
20:52 We're seeing it. It's just a fact. The economic system is being changed because of AI agents and they're accelerating at an an insane pace right now seen through the ARR. This only started in January. We haven't really started the usage. We are in the bring it on, show me how we can do it side. That is just starting. And that is the reason why crypto is starting to become more important because as I go through here, the end intervention was not the crisis. Gold is not yet singling a crisis. AI agents have not yet transformed the economy.
21:24 But the pressure from all three is beginning to show up at the same time. That is the nexus point. And I believe we will look back on the last week of July as one of the moments when the merging of the creditbacked fiat world and the AI fueled digital economy stopped being theoretical and began began showing up in markets. That collision course between the creditbacked fiat system and the crypto world is what's happening now. Besson's being called the most interventionist treasury chief in decades.
21:53 Trump at the crypto event still with his guy there said Fed interest rate policy he's bemoning it says US should be paying much less if you listen to it he thinks our rates should be down he's publicly saying that is he applying pressure to Bessant or to Worsh no he's doing a great job but he also renewed his attacks on the Federal Reserve so he might be saying things about Worsh but don't think this isn't his goal is to make sure there's no rate hikes So, let's go back. Bitcoin Segue, a peer-to-peer electronic cash system. We propose a solution to the double spending problem using peer-to-peer network. If you haven't read the Bitcoin white paper, now that I've said to you why Bitcoin matters by Mark Andre in January of 2014, must read for alpha in the future. Now, you've got the Bitcoin white paper on your homework. In Bitcoin, you cannot spend the same monetary unit twice. The fiscal system, you can spend today's income and simultaneously borrow against tomorrow's income. Old system completely breaking down. New system being born. Satoshi built Bitcoin to eliminate double spending of money. This was the white paper. This was the solution. The sovereign debt system permits something Bitcoin does not. The repeated spending of future time. There's the time thing again.
23:18 It's all going to change from this point going forward. This is why when you go through the AI macro nexus, you know, sheet and for those of you who got it last week on the RAIA side and have signed up for me to do presentations, the next constraint is financial crypto rails for AI agents. This learning curve will be massive compared to these. So, you better be ready and you better be on top of the fact because when your clients ask you, "Hey, what should we be doing in crypto?" And you say, "We don't do it.
23:50 We don't have an answer. Let me get someone on the phone who's credible in the space and a guy with a hoodie shows up." Or you're lucky enough to find someone in the crypto space who can talk about their vertical. The problem is, how do you connect it back to what's happening in the world and get a story or a narrative that people can embrace? Who are your clients? You're going to have to find that And that's the reason why I was doing this because I know this is coming at the White House this week.
24:17 This event went on. So the same week that Scott Bessant is doing all of these interventions in the last two weeks, the quarterly refunding change in the language, the yen intervention, the buyback situation, publicly saying he wants rates to be lower. President Trump had all of the crypto gangs there to basically say to the Democrats. If you don't sign the Clarity Act, we're going forward anyway because this is important to America. You can have it on your voting block if you don't want to have it. We're going forward. Both applying pressure, but also saying it doesn't really matter. This is like AI, guys.
25:00 So the clarity act's been keeping a ball below the water and this week it just blew out of the water partly because of the change from Bessant and partly because of what's happening at the White House. So there are catalysts that happen that everyone was looking for. Now Trump argued that crypto stable coins prediction markets and blockchain based finance tools are for maintaining US financial dominance, keeping innovation on shore and extending the dollar's global role. Critical thing to say, very important. They view this and this is part of it. This is not let me go buy Bitcoin because I want to speculate on I want to make money. This is the belief that just like AI having the dollarbased system which the US has had creates strength for them, they can't allow China to have all of the crypto side or it be outside the US. So he connected crypto policy to AI competition, shifted to macro policy, saying interest rates should fall when the economy is strong. And then you can go through these things from Brian Armstrong, from Vlad, from Robin Hood, and from chain link. All of this stuff is about the global framework going on. So with all that said, the one thing I've said, and the reason I've been quiet on Bitcoin, if you notice my demeanor change, it's because of this. as Jesse Livermore taught us all in reminiscence of a stock operator. For those of you who are new to investing and you want a good book to read, this is a great book, especially if you're a trader. If you haven't read it, I highly I highly recommend reading it. The tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefor. Don't argue with the tape. The object of reading the tape is to ascertain how and when to trade. This one here and all of them, I don't want to fight the tape.
26:44 So, when we're in a bare market, meaning we're below the 200 day moving average, I can buy some stuff. I can go through it, but I'm not going to talk to it to you guys about it other than just say, I still believe it's going to bottom here and it's going to go higher, but it may go down before it goes up. But once it gets above the 200 day moving average, then I get more interested. Great traders do not force the market to fit the story. They let the tape update the story. That's why all of the things that I said had been going on for a while.
27:09 And like I showed two weeks ago from HOL, all of these bad events were going on and Bitcoin was still trading well while the tech bubble was unwinding. I thought Bitcoin was a tech beta trade. So somehow or another, Bitcoin was hanging in there when bad news was there. And so here's what we get. That looks like trying to hold a ball underwater. And eventually the pressure came out. Three massive candles in a row breaking the 200 day moving average in Bitcoin.
27:46 Ethereum, same thing. You can't see it here, but also the 200 day moving average just turned up in Ethereum. Very powerful signal. I've talked to you that I believe Ethereum should outperform. I have a good amount of Ethereum. I didn't have any Ethereum until really recently. and the reason is because I believe that this is going to be based on the ecosystem. I believe Beta is going to lead in crypto and Bitcoin will not be the leader. If I'm right about what's happening, the other name should lead and Ethereum should lead because this is about the ecosystem being invested in.
28:22 And I'll talk more about that. If you read my ex post, you saw this chart. Sigma moves. Guys, first of all, for those of you who reach out and say you show a lot of charts where you don't explain what's going on, I will explain this one. So, in the way to look at things in both price and time, if Micron right now has a a 20% rise, meaning it goes from 900 to,00 you don't think twice about it because it's been doing that regularly. It trades at 100 volatility which means a normal daily move in that thing is 6%. So if it's 6% you get a 20% move. Okay, view it is this way. That would be a three standard deviation move on a daily basis. What this is is this is the weekly moves. So for a weekly move I'm taking the six-day volatility of Bitcoin. Before we moved this week, last Friday it was 23. So on a daily basis 23 V is about 1 and a.5%.
29:23 The reason I can calculate that in my head is because you take whatever that V is, it's a daily annualized V. And if you want to convert it into something that you can do in percentage terms, you take the square root of 252 trade days, that's about 16. You divide the V 23 by 16, you get one and a half%. Now, if you want to do weekly, you're taking that same number, which is 23, and you're dividing it by the square root of 52 weeks. So, that's seven. So, let's say 20, let's let's take it 23 vol divided by 7. That's about 3% a week is a one standard deviation move. We moved by 22% this week. So, you get a seven sigma move. So, that's how you normalize things on movements to decide how big and powerful of of a move it was based on how it's been trading for the last 60 days. I chose 60 days because that is two months worth of data. and I say two months because Bitcoin trades 60 seven days a week. here were the last two highs, the only other two in the last decade on a weekly basis that were greater than five. One was April 7 7th, 2019, January 15, 2023. You can see where the V was. So, not too far off. This is the way Bitcoin trades. It goes through a bare market. All the sellers are gone.
30:48 And as we all know, for many of you who just hold like me, I've never sold a Bitcoin in my lifetime. You are left with the fact that it eventually gets quiet. The 60-day V eventually drops down before the move. So this time it was 23. In 19 it was 29. In 23 it was 27. This time it was 23. And then this was the weekly move. So a very similar time. Now let's go see if those points were important.
31:17 Huh. Here was the one where it started. Now this is a daily chart. That was the week. We got these two big candles. And guess what? We crossed above the 200 day moving average. And we doubled very quickly in the next two months in that. That was back in the 19 one. Oh, same exact thing. We break above the 200 day moving average back in 2022. And this one a little bit more grumpy on the way up, but still worked its way to being up close to doubling very quickly.
31:49 And then took a little bit more time, went through another phase. the point being on this for you guys, the pattern's resuming and I hate to say it as I said in the post, but it's like the four-year cycle. I mentioned last week that or the week after here that the end signal was here. We got this boost that was a multi-igma move in gold. Very similar. It was a 7% move. I showed it was one of the largest moves in the last 15 years. It's continued through and is back above the 200 day moving average. So, we are getting some sort of a debasement trade. We are getting whatever you want to call it.
32:25 Silver was up big, too. I made a lot of money on my silver stuff this week. for those of you asking on the silver, I am long SLV and I am long SIL. SIL is much bigger. I like the miners because I believe this stuff the miners are just trading way too cheap relative to where the metal is. Regardless of that, I got both of them. So, let's go read one of the posts I put in about this move in Bitcoin. Sentiment is low. Jack Besson is quoting Satoshi in Expose. The Treasury Secretary is quoting Satoshi and this is recent tech momentum V is at 45ear highs. I'm going to take you guys through the fact that if you're running a portfolio and you've got a 60-day volume on one instrument which is 23 and you have a 60-day V on something like Micron which is 120.
33:17 I don't think people have fully embraced how important this is for Bitcoin. People invest in beta. This stuff is going to be stuck in the mud. I will go through V, but I just want to say this to you. V is like going into the ICU at the hospital. When your vitals are that severe and you end up in the ICU, when you come out of the hospital, think of situational awareness day, that tech momentum came out of the hospital, you're not going to be back to normal for a long time. It's going to take a long time for this V to come down, if it ever does. And as I've said, market structure has changed. The reason this stuff trades like that is because of the terminal value destruction. You cannot value companies three three years from now. This is not just a Micron story.
34:08 I'll show you IBM later. You can go look at Adobe. You can go All of these companies are going through the same thing on the on the on the option side. You start hearing people talk about dispersion and it continues to be just all over the map in terms of all of these names are moving at high volume, but the index is not moving. That's exactly what I would expect when S&P earnings are going at 30, 40, 50%. And the names are going all over the map.
34:36 That will continue because we are never going back to a 8% earnings cycle and GDP of three. That's never happening again in an AI world. So adapt to the new market structure and just realize Bitcoin benefits because it's a growth asset. And once it starts going and people go, "This is beta." This community is going to push this baby. So get involved because it's coming. AI agents are about to change global economy measurements and the new Fed chair has five task forces to restructure the way monetary policy is done, leaving academic economist lost while the Treasury Secretary is doing unconventional blah blah blah. As Michael Sailor says, you don't find Bitcoin, Bitcoin finds you. We are at the Bitcoin finds you moment. If you're trying to make money for investors and you need to make more than what the S&P can give when the S&P is giving you 20 25% a year, it's not going to help you to go invest in stocks that are going up 25% a year. It's not going to help you invest in stocks like Nvidia which go up 30% every year, but people hate the stock because it doesn't go up 50 or 60 or it doesn't go up ever relative to the S&P which I'll highlight as well, but it still outperforms.
35:39 Going to be a good video this week. Hopefully you guys are enjoying it so far. We're still early in this. All right, Satoshi, America will lead or America won't. It's not more complicated than that. I believe Satoshi once said it best. If you don't believe me or you don't get it, I don't have time to try and convince you. Sorry. The importance of passing the Clarity Act. I'm just telling you guys, read the news. Do not have an endgame bias. If people aren't talking about this, they don't know it. They're not involved.
36:10 This is a Bitcoin presidency and all of the people at every level are pro Bitcoin. Kevin Walsh on Bitcoin. This is from January. It could tell the world that it could tell the world that things need to be fixed. Yes, the old system is broken. Bitcoin does not make me nervous. The underlying technology is that white paper. Go read it. If you don't believe me, go listen to Kevin. He's the Fed chair. It's just software. It's just the newest, coolest, coolest software that will provide us the opportunity to do things we have never done before. Okay, Bitcoin. I think of Bitcoin as a lot of things, but certainly with every passing day, getting new life as an alternative currency. Ask your economist if they believe in Bitcoin. Ask them if they use AI and then get rid of every one of them that says no to both. They cannot help you going forward. They can help you five years ago. So, if you want to know about what the Fed would have done five years ago, be my guest and go deal with it. Treasury seeks public comment on the Genius Act, proposing rulemaking. Now, the Genius Act is not the Clarity Act.
37:17 And remember that was passed a while ago. This is August 17th. Again, during this week, I said to you guys back in June, I no longer wanted to be involved with this stuff. I wanted to be involved with this layer, the hardest layer to invest in. Where do we get the applications? This is not a software thing. The models are all under pressure now in terms of everyone's worried about them. Anthropics, they're valued at very high levels. Do I think Anthropic could be worth three trillion? Sure, it's already worth two trillion. What is three trillion going to give you? That's a 50% increase. We get stocks moving 50%. Bitcoin was up 23% this week because it's an application.
38:04 It's part of the crypto ecosystem. And yes, I know Bitcoin doesn't benefit on this. But as I've shown before, Bitcoin is basically the S&P 500 of the crypto world and eventually of the entire ecosystem of investing. It is the only store of value in the digital economy. End of story. I'm glad that Stan has entered the crypto world in a way that can be publicized. I've heard him talk about Bitcoin. his statements on Bitcoin back in like 2020 and 2021 I thought were brilliant because he said, "I don't understand it." But when I talk to kids, they all want it. They all believe in it. He knows that this is important. He knows you don't have to understand it, and you certainly don't have to do what Jeremy Grantham did the week of the lows is go on and say he wants to piss all over it and it's garbage. What an horrible the most ironic bottom of all time. Stan Duckville reveals 23 million of hyperlquid market structures changing.
39:06 Market structures changing. This is my favorite one. Standiller's Dukane family office adds Bitcoin mining exposure through Bit Deer Riot Hut 8 and iron while exiting Intel and Micron. That's the exact same trade that I make. I I like it when stands on on my playbook. I like it. the end signal an AI max macro nexus point. Why am I bringing this up again? It's the merge time, guys. So, it brings me to the next intersection, the AI Max make macro nexus crypto. So, again, think about what Stan is doing.
39:44 Regardless of his reasons on it, he's looking at public companies and I'm sure if he had the ability and maybe he does of being involved in some of the tokens and I'll go through some some of the charts in terms of what the ecosystem is doing. But if AI is creating a digital economy increasingly populated by autonomous agents, then that economy will require digitally native money, collateral, settlement, identity. At the same time, if the response is the debt burden of the existing fiat system increasingly requires liquidity creation and currency debasement, then scarce digital assets become more relevant, not less. These two forces are approaching each other from opposite directions. The old system is ending.
40:21 The new system is beginning. The new system is accelerating and going to get all of the investment in the next phase. This is 101 of finding growth that is an innovation that will be changing the world. just because you don't understand it. By investing in the old aging system which cannot deal with AI agents, public companies cannot deal with AI agents regardless of what they tell you. An AI native company can adapt quickly. A public company, how long is it going to take for them to install agents and use them in a way? The only reason they can benefit is because their revenues are so big. So they will benefit until they stop being able to cut expenses and grow their revenues. At some point that will happen in my opinion. So again, you don't have to believe me, but you're watching this for a reason. At least incorporate it in there, and I'm trying to educate you with the things to read.
41:18 So combine what happened with Stripe. They purchased Open Router. So, Stripe, as I've said multiple times and covered at least five or six times a year, how important this company is to the new financial guardrails, how they are the ones that are moving quickly and doing things. Combine what they did this week, and I'm not going to read this, but you guys can go read it. This is a letter to investors explaining why they bought Open Router. Why would they buy something that is very important to what companies are talking about? Meaning a routing system where you can have open source and you can have frontier models and the router's deciding what the cheapest one or the best one to use is.
41:59 Why would they do it? Well, that's not the only thing they're doing. Stripes emerging AI agent economy stack. So, if you want to look what the future is going to look like, who should you be paying attention to? these guys or JP Morgan, this is what they're buying. And they can buy these little companies in in their business and they're a big company, hundreds of billions of dollars in terms of valuation. But every single part, I wrote a big paper on this when they did this back two years ago. All of these things go through and you can read them on your own, but it's money, compute, tokens, intelligent output, revenue. They are basically creating a stack for companies like mine, companies that can use intelligence, tokens, compute. They're saying money is being transformed into these things and then coming out the other side. You're spending money on compute to create to get AI tokens for the intelligence involved with it. I do it all day long in my business.
43:07 If you don't know enough about them, this was an interview that came before the open router announcement. This is it's it's a great interview. It's on A16Z podcast. I will put it in the weekly podcast sheet with the transcript or with the details and the link for the subscribers. Tokens are the new dollar. Stripes will gay interviewed. Go listen to it. Stripe has evolved from a payments processor into a financial infrastructure platform.
43:37 Isn't that to some degree what Amazon became? what Google became what all think about what's happening in front of this except these guys are on the guard rail side the financial side as I say to my son who's getting a finance major but is building agents every day you're an entrepreneur dude you can build your own business you don't have to go work for a public company if you go work for a public company you will be miserable the same way I was day one at working at Morgan Stanley I figured a way because I was learning so much to keep that suppressed I'm not born to work in a big company. I don't like managing people.
44:15 I'll get into more of that when I show you Grockbot. But my son is at this stage where he has a finance degree. Every company, whether it's a construction company, a food company, a a pension, it doesn't matter what it is, you need to know finance for your life, for everything. So, having a finance degree is important, but finance, which is where Stripe is listed, they're building around that need. I use Stripe. Cost cutting is characterized as going short your future potential. Building more is going long. This is an entrepreneurial mindset. This is an AI native mindset. This is what they are.
44:50 They're not only talking about what they're seeing. They're seeing explosion in new company formation and faster monetization. First half signups were said to be up 50% year-over-year, while newer startup cohorts are generating substantially more rev than prior cohorts. We are watching the cannibalization of all revenue inside the country by AI native businesses. It's just that the number is small. The Russell 2000 again is about three trillion less than the size of Nvidia.
45:23 It will take time, but when you're growing and you're seeing companies like Anthropic go from a valuation of a 100red billion to two to three trillion in less than 18 months, we've never seen this before. This is what you're going to see with other AI native businesses and just wait till humanoids come. You will see the same thing. Agentic commerce is still missing basic infrastructure. This is the reason why we haven't seen the crypto side yet because the Aentic commerce side is not there yet. But once it comes, that's where the growth comes in this. This is where every hedge fund gets involved, which will happen before the end of the year because they will start to see the numbers that's happening already and value acrruel and all the revenues and everything that's already going on and realizing, oh my god, this thing is so cheap. You're starting to see it with companies like Figure. You're starting to see it with the ones that I've mentioned on here where people start doing their homework and they're like, "Wait a second. You're growing that fast?" That's like AI growth.
46:12 It's connected to agents and it's going to continue to grow rapidly, especially while the government is giving the all clear. AI agents could finally make microp payments economically important. Small things. Stripe C stable coins fundamentally a superior global payment infrastructure. The central thesis tokens are the new dollars. They see a blurring between AI tokens and money. AI macro nexus point. If you don't know anything about crypto, you're going to have a hard time in this new world as tokenization comes. So, here's the visual for you on this. The cost per token continues to collapse.
46:53 The economic viable task rises. We're getting Jeban's paradox. That's what it looks like. That's why the pie is getting bigger and bigger and going there. That's why focusing on whether Anthropic is going to have their revenues grow or not is ridiculous. They're never going to stop or they will at some point, but not in the near term because the pie is just growing too fast because the adoption phase is still here. We just don't have anybody still going through in those size. It's better than it was a year ago, but we're in the early stages because nobody's using agents yet, which I'll show you with crackpot. So, this is the visual that comes. AI breaks the relationship between economic output and human time.
47:28 This is what I basically said, the old economy, which economists like to do research on, and the new economy, the one that's built on capital, energy, compute, tokens, human judgment, output. So, if everyone's told you it's going to blow up, the economy is not AI. It's all AI, all this stuff. It's irrelevant. AI is here. It's going to be here. The capital will be raised. They will continue to grow. If you got a chance to read the paper I did last week, which is all on the All-In podcast, go read it, subscribers. If you were sitting at the beach and you didn't get a chance, go read it and just realize so you don't have to call me about is Anthropic done?
48:05 Did you see the news? I don't care. It's going higher. All of it. The problem is the stocks are not going to respond the way they did in the first quarter which is frustrating people because they're fully still at the buffet table bloated with all of the AI infrastructure stuff which is going to outperform but I think people are looking for 20 30 40 50% outperformance and that's where I think it's going to be an issue personally I think some of them will but not all of them don't need to go through this again it's just really an emphasis that the implications from an investment standpoint is changing time which is why Stripe is saying the singularity has begun.
48:44 Don't forget tokenized stocks are happening the other side of crypto and this is the trading volume in tokenized equities which again fits in a lot with all the things that we were talking about. So my 46 name equal weight tokenized index over Bitcoin again showing you that number one the ecosystem is outperforming Bitcoin right now which is good even outperformed this week it's up for the year now the ecosystem which includes Bitcoin but it's equal weight so this is the 46 name equal weight index of companies Bitcoin's there and you can see how highly correlated they are which again is why if you want to invest in the 40 name equal weight. You can invest in Bitcoin and you're going to get basically the ecosystem. As this goes higher, this will go higher. I don't need to take you guys through now. If you want to read some of my old stuff, you can do that. If you want to call up and call Mark Whailing, go ahead. I'll give you guys why Bitcoin so important to this group. So, these are the 10 verticals. Not going to read you all of them. Two of them are up big this year.
49:54 The eight of them are down. the two that are up. Digital monetary assets. This this one, I'm not going to go through the names in them, but there's a lot of stuff going on in this AI agents in the machine economy. Not surprisingly, doing well. these are all turned up this week. They're highly correlated, but there's 46 of them, including up. We're destroying the valuation, and that means multiples should compress.
50:24 That means as the S&P grows earnings 35% as they look like they're doing this year, maybe the S&P is up 20. That's not the way it normally works. If we were in a bubble, as people say with everything going on and earnings growing at unprecedented levels, no hiring, no worry about the labor market, inflation is in check despite what people tell you on where it may go or may not go. People still saying double-digit inflation and stuff like that to scare people. The reality is we should be up 50%, 100%. I saw the NDX or the NASDAQ bubble. These names should be up a lot more at this point. We we we had a cancer vaccine this week for Christ's sake with melanoma.
51:07 The market finished down for the week. Like cancer vaccine, this is not a bull market. Meaning this is not a bubble. You're going to have to hedge yourself in the fact that this is already showing signs of weakness. the aging fiat system is showing up. And so again, the next constraint is financial. It's not physical. The physical side outperformed the first part. That's what this year is about. Next year, in my opinion, it's all about understanding how to invest in these. And most people haven't started the work. They haven't done anything on it. And I can tell you that based on the questions I get now, a lot of the people that watch this video and especially this week given what happened with Bitcoin understand. But everyone else is trying to trade treasuries and trade FX and short the NASDAQ and wait for I I like they're just wasting their time playing around in an old age home with inside that market. And now that the physical part of AI has been discounted that everyone's long it it's going to be harder. That's the way markets go. And then the stuff like Eli Liy, nobody wants to hear me talk about Eli Liy.
52:14 Nobody. because they don't care about a company growing revenues 50% year-over-year unless it moves 100, 200, 300%. Bitcoin will do that. Ethereum will do that. And that's where I think people will go. Reach out to Mark Whailing, get your sample package with some of the work that we do. And for you RAAS and FAS, cancel your subscriptions at someone to put me on there unless they have this. If they have it, God bless you. You'll get the work. But if you're paying someone to talk about things that don't matter, I don't know how that helps your business going forward. And maybe it helps it today and maybe you're in a cushy job and you're just sitting there.
52:51 But I'm just telling you, we're living in a world of so much noise and so many questions are going to come from people. You want to outperform and you got to be on top of where the crypto side is. Again, above the 200 day moving average in Bitcoin. I am going to be pounding my my my hands on the table and doing everything because the tape is telling me to. I already had the story and the narrative and believed in the trend that was going on with the government and the revenues and the math. But now we have the tape as well.
53:19 Signal verse noise. The endgame bias again. So again this thing going to kill you. Okay. This has been now one, two, three years of tenure rates trading between four and 470 for almost the entire time. And yet every technical person, every per they want to tell you it's going to break out. It's going to six. It's going to seven. I've seen all the charts and they're fighting the government. Can it happen? Yeah. But when people start telling me the United States of America is an emerging market because we're keeping rates, that is just BS.
54:02 Nvidia again every time I hear a is a bubble the reason it's noise is because until Nvidia which is still growing their earnings these are the numbers the last three years this is insane are they lower than they were here yeah this was the beginning of the data center buildout these are the expectations here's the PE E based on those numbers, a PEG ratio below one on what should be trading probably double where it is. I think the PE should be 50 based on what a bubble would look like.
54:42 So, just remember that that every time you hear bubble, it's total BS. Oil, first of all, going to 200 was a joke. This is the year-over-year rate of change in the sixth contract of oil, guys. This is a fact. So when you tell me that oil's up and we're going to 90 and we're going this, I don't care one bit. I don't know how many cycles you guys have lived through. Oil being up 27% year-over-year does not matter one bit. Doesn't matter. So unless something changes, and again, if it moved up here, it doesn't matter. 40% year-over-year, it doesn't matter. It doesn't matter where it goes to. It matters if it sits there at a long time. So, if you think that that's going to happen, that's great, but it's not there. So, go buy oil stocks and just stop talking about how it's going to take down the economy.
55:34 Here's the multiple in the S&P off next year's earnings. This is the one. This is the PEG ratio or sorry, the PE on forward estimates on on the S&P. The reason I want to bring this up is because AI agents came out. Here's what's happened to the PE of the S&P. We've gone down 20%. So this is off next year's earnings. That's how much earnings have gone up despite the fact that the price has gone higher.
56:00 This is not a bubble. If anything, this is the market telling you we believe terminal value is ending. We believe you cannot value the market. I believe this number will continue to decline in an upward tape, meaning prices will underperform earnings until we start to see profit margins work out and then the multiple will really collapse because that means the entrepreneurship is growing. I'm telling you this because once the growth rate stops, this is everyone's biggest position in the world. And I am not positive on the S&P 500. I am not positive on this chart. I believe this thing will continue to go down because of AI.
56:45 Here's the performance of the S&P from the end of 2022, that bare market to now. The reason I want to show this is because regardless of what my views are in 2030, the reality is the S&P is pumping out 20% a year despite all the noise, despite the tariff fears, despite SVB, despite the war in Iran. Like guys, no matter what happens, you're getting 20% in this. Like this has become a thing. It's been a thing since the great financial crisis. That's why everyone calls it a bubble. But it just continues. Could it fall at some point?
57:19 Yeah. But again, earnings are growing. There's no there's no debt to be a problem other than AI, and AI's revenues are growing rapidly. Here's Nvidia. So, if you've gone through all of the bubble part, the deepseat fears, and all of the things that have made you not belong in Vidia, it's up 109% since 2022. Sorry, a year. It's up since 2022, 14. You've had a 14 bagger despite all of the AI bubble fears that have gone on.
57:51 And this is again 2022 is coming out of the rate hike cycle, but it's also when chatpt started. It's a 14 bagger. Micron did a 14 bagger recently. All right. This doesn't want to come up. No. Having a little problem here with my All right. Well, unfortunately, I knew this was going to happen at some point.
58:21 Let's see if it's going to come up. All right. I'm just going to leave this here for now. So this is the Micro Strategy returns which are good. they're up 600% during that time period. Let me see if I can switch this up another way. All right. Well, given the fact that I'm not going to restart the video.
59:06 I'm going to try and do this the oldfashioned way. So, you guys are going to bear with me. You're going to get some enjoyment. There's going to be no editing because this is a oneman show. And now I see what the problem is. Jord's got no Wi-Fi right now. So, we're going to switch Wi-Fi because you know me, I got a backup for that stuff. Love to give you more entertainment, but unfortunately, this is the best I got, guys. So, just bear with me here as I get you back to where we were. Ignore this part if you didn't fast forward to it. I appreciate you sticking with me.
59:46 All right, see we're back. You just got to give me time to get through things. All right, MSDR 76% a year since 22. The reason I want to bring this one up is 76% a year is what it's produced since the end of 2022. And this is where the chart is. What do you think's going to happen when Bitcoin goes back to all-time highs? So again, for all you noise people on Micro Strategy, give me a break.
60:17 here's the month-to- date numbers for the Globe. Here are the year-to- date numbers for the Globe. The Cosby, despite its crash, just like that Micro Strategy thing, up 64%. Reason I'm bringing this up is for all the noise you guys have heard on the equity market and the bubble and everything, the reality is it's just fine. Signal verse noise. Here's the JV thematic portfolio. So again, I'm going to say this over and over again. By the end of the year, I expect new all-time highs in this. For everyone who's just jumping in, think we're going to do one of these again.
60:56 Not happening in my opinion. No chance, no way, no how. I'll show you why. Do I think we're going to grind our way higher? Yes. Remember this fall the VA exploded in the names. And like I said, these names are coming out of the ICU. They're just been released. That's what this low was. They're not going to be healthy again for at least 6 months. Some of the names will, and the names that I've highlighted to you, my biggest positions with inside this portfolio, Eli Liy doesn't really count. Silver doesn't really count, but it's part of the portfolio. Bitcoin doesn't really count because you guys either don't believe in it or it's not one of the names in the thematic portfolio that you guys are in. Marll, I still love it.
61:39 I'm still sticking with it. I still think there's a triple quadruple from here in my opinion. take it for what it is. It's just me thinking that it's going to go higher over the course of the next few years in a big way. I have Microner than it was before. and then I have a lot of little names like Chamore, Camores, Fluence, a lot of things in there that are just kind of tiny positions that I still have that I think eventually will, be something that I want to remember I have in there and have a big bigger position in.
62:10 but they're very, very tiny at this point. So, I think we're going to get back and forth. I think these lows to me are absolutely the low. I think we're going to get through the highs. I just don't think it's going to be in a moonshot way like it was here. And most importantly, some of the names like Fluence is down 50% from where I think I made my highest purchase in it. 50%. I expect those types of things, guys. I'm in the name. I'm in I have a little tiny position in EOS as well, which is down even more than that. So, just remember the way that I deal with my portfolio is going to be different than you guys.
62:47 trade your names based on the way you trade risk. But right now, I think crypto, Eli, Lily, silver, those are the places that I rotated into and reduced all those other things. The anthropic thing, which scared the hell out of people and got everyone going, it is just complete noise, guys. For Christ's sake, it's just complete noise. and Warren Pies put this out. I I knew when I read it, it was going to have an impact. I'm kind of surprised he didn't realize. I didn't I like Warren a lot but I mean we are seeing some early cracks in our GPU availability data.
63:22 Anything that comes out like that people are going to overreact to. So he's not going to overreact but everyone else did but have to call balls and strikes. We are going to get to a point where GPU pricing stops going higher. That does not mean anything bad is going on guys. Sorry. They shouldn't be going higher in the first place. That was the whole argument is that they depreciate at some point. They'll just go sideways at a high level. The fireworks show is over.
63:46 So, I just wanted to remind you guys this as thinking about the way this is going to move. I talked about it now enough, but just keep this in the back of your mind that one of the hardest things for investors to recognize during an exponential technical technological transition is the difference between new information and delayed understanding. A lot's changed. A lot has changed. Everyone's involved. So, this is where I think we are in AI. The fireworks show is over and the last couple weeks have been the climax of an incredible display. This is from the first week of June. Maybe this is my time to be caught going against the exponential tide.
64:19 Nope, it wasn't. It was exactly the right time to be writing this paper because June 6 was a time that if you reduced your positions, you'd be in a lot better shape and be a lot more aggressive and not caring as much about the back and forth. But I think the warning signs are clear. More people are now fighting against the bottleneck and shortage side. This was my argument against what would be the likely cause against the agentic AI buildout itself.
64:42 For me, that usually means the all you can eat AI buffet has left everyone full and in need of a digestion period. I still think that's going on. I just want to let you This is the Goldman Sachs most crowded hedge fund names overlaid with my thematic portfolio. This just means that everyone's in the AI infrastructure trade. Doesn't mean it's wrong. Hedge funds do very well and I'm sure that's going to work out well, but they're in it, which makes it harder. Secondly, this V differential, you have to remember we had a period where because it was going up so fast, V was going higher while you were making money. That is not a normal thing.
65:16 Normally, V is going higher and people are losing money unless they're short the market. The fact he made money while the market was going higher. When Vin kept going higher around here and the market went down, that's when the issue came in. This is overlaid with six-month Vault. This is a structural difference in the marketplace. And this is Micron and IBM 90-day V overlaid with the S&P 90-day V going back to 2009 since the great financial crisis. This has never happened before, ever that you could have the biggest companies in the market having V spike and the S&P not move.
65:52 Tech momentum 5% moves a day in the Morgan Stanley tech momentum. I just did a histogram of it. none in this period post the great financial crisis. 57 so far this year. We're not even eight months or through the year. We're not even we're we're just at a point right now, guys, when you go through this that it's insane how much we've moved. Here's the Nvidia pain trade. So here's their earnings never stopping. So they just keep going. They just the energ the Energizer Bunny keeps going. This arrow here points to the problem. Beginning in 2024 after Wow, this looks a lot like the AI thematic trade. Let's assume maybe this is where it was.
66:40 Okay, so this is the price movement. Okay, this is what happened to the PE ratio. So the PE ratio peaked there in the 40-50 area and now it's down at 19. That is called moving higher in mud. That's the Nvidia mud trap. You want to see how painful it is from an alpha perspective since June 7th of 2024. For the last 26 months, this is Nvidia relative to the S&P.
67:15 Aside from these two bars, you've basically been in the same death trap as tenure rates. So, if you're looking for this for alpha, which is why everyone has boycott it, which everyone complains about it, here is how you made money. This is when it outperformed from April of 25 to August of 25 for four months out of 26. That's the only time you made money on the alpha side other than just trading it. So this is what I expect for most of the infrastructure trades. They are going to be beast now because it's discounted because we're going to see multiple compression. Even though the multiples are low, the PEG ratio on Nvidia is no different than those PEG ratios and it's been there almost the entire time.
67:58 S&P 500 17% a year since 2024. Nvidia was 30%. So you get that alpha outperformance, but again it's very frustrating to have it in there. So I expect that to happen. All right, let's move and start to finish this up. It's gone too long, but it's an important one. I'm going to blast through Grockbot. I would estimate my personal AI usage is up like a hundred times. Completely agree with Gavin Baker. That's why I put this began managing people in my 20s after 48 hours using Rockbot. One thing is clear. Access to a team of 247 365 digital employees has just been democratized from a usability standpoint, not a price standpoint. This thing still costs $200 a month. I believe it's the cheapest you can get it for. However, I would try it for a month and I'm going to show you why. But this has been unbelievable in a short amount of time. So, for those of you who have not gone through the open claw or maybe you started it and you gave up or Hermes or you used it and you got frustrated because XYZ happened, this is Elon Musk and Cursor's solution and it is awesome.
69:05 So, I'm just showing you what it looks like and just showing you how I started it. It took me zero time to start. You start, you have a chief of staff and then you just start creating bots. You just create them and you give them a title, a writer, a gent commerce research person. Then the next stage for me is I went, you know what, I want there to be a chief of staff that reports to me and then they report to the chief of staff.
69:33 So I can either ask the chief of staff a question and then that Jarvis in my case can go ask Victor, Mary or Bernie who are specialists in editing, Agentic Commerce, Deep Researcher. These are all things I do for my writing. I do a ton of research using AI. I write my papers. I have an editor go through. I bounce off suggestions with them. And then Agenta Commerce is my favorite thing to get news items on. So in this case running the weekend tape scan now. So I create these routines which show up over here. They run these on their own. This is not on my computer. This is in the cloud. This is a massive moment. So when I have my open claw and I have to use a certain intelligence. I have to download it onto my computer. I don't want it to be around my files. This one is integrated with my files and I love it.
70:24 It's also integrated with my login to my apps. I'll show you some of that. Now, I've expanded it. So, this is where I wanted to go. And for you guys who actually get it and try it. If you just consistently put the sheets that I upload to the subscriber website for my technical pages for the fundamental pages all to a folder and then you just connect this to the folder one time and just say, "Okay, I want you to connect to this folder." And you give it the location and you give it an instruction.
70:52 I only want you to use this for data. You don't write anything. You don't save anything. You don't do anything. You just have it access it and then you can go in and ask it questions like how many of the names in technical sheet were above the 50-day moving average the last week and it goes through. Okay, how many were above the two 20-day of the 72 that were above the 20? This takes it's instant in terms of the reaction speed.
71:15 This is why you need to use it. Then you can go even further and then you can basically go now give me a list of how many were above the 50-day moving average by week by week. So, it gives me that thing that I show you guys in terms of how many are above from prior weeks. It's taking it's going through all of the files on the sheet and doing that. If I want to go through which ones are near the all-time highs or the furthest away from all-time highs very quickly, anything I want to get from it. And you can see that I added agency, alpha, signal, each one of these has a different skill set that I'm using. You can do this for anything. I connected one and I called it call. This is my earnings commentary one. So, all I got to do in is put the stock symbol and then it goes through and it gives me the last four reported all of this stuff, guys. And it takes seconds. It's just how many ideas you can figure out and where you can go. So, in this case, I went into the computer. There's a computer screen over here, which is on the cloud. You sign into your site. It's part of this. And then this one here, alpha, I just go into it and say, "Give me the bull bear case." And it goes to X. I'm doing it on X. I want to see the bull bear case and anything you can connect to whatever apps you want inside here. It's not on your computer. It's in the cloud. Then you can go in and create. Okay, I want to go through and I want to make sure it's helping me get ready for anything during the week. I save my stuff into notion. It has a notion notion plugin. So when it's running stuff, it saves thing to its own notion account notion folder. And then I go look at it on Friday before I do this with you guys to see if there's anything else that I may have missed for the week. So you can see how this goes.
72:55 It's got all these runs that it does for me. I just wanted to make sure you guys saw it. This thing is important. So to finish up the week, Maderna shares more than double on success of MRNA cancer vaccine. I've talked about this. I've said publicly we will start being a in a place based on everything that I read and talk to that by 2030 we will be at the point where you can say safely we will be able to stop all disease in the foreseeable future that people won't have to die from disease.
73:28 You have to think about what that means for the stock market what that means for companies what that means for the deficit the debt all these things. Again, you have to think forward on these things, but we're getting now things like a cancer vaccine. I wrote this in November of last or in June of this year on Eli Liy in terms of what's going to happen, but I wrote this back in November of 25 on how artificial intelligence is transforming pharma's broken economics. I highlighted some things in there. I'm not going to read it because I've gone further, but I did ask JT GBT, "What would happen to the stock market if humanity discovered a true, widely accessible cure for cancer." Its answer was blunt. Global equities would likely surge 20 to 30% almost immediately as markets replace longer lifespans, longer health care burden, lower healthcare burdens, and higher future consumption.
74:20 Just think about what we're going through. So the argument I made in that November paper was that pharma was entering a new place of a rerating. Legacy pharma is a 5% growth thing with 25% free cash flow margin. It fails the rule of 40 growth asset test. But if it goes to 10 to 12 and free cash flow improves because of the benefits that come from AI both on the discovery side and the efficacy side but also on the efficiency side they would get it to a rerating.
74:51 I believe multiples will go from 12 to 15 to 20 to 25. And this is one of the reasons why I've said publicly that Eli Liy will be the biggest company in 5 years. So I believe Eli Liy is a cash cow bringing in money on obesity medicine that everyone would like to get because it's the biggest problem in the country. And if they get those, it has huge implications for the revenues. And as they're getting that cash in the door, they are doing M&A like a drunken sailor right now. They are buying up companies because stage two IP is now worth a lot of money if you believe by taking it and you have your own AI data center, which they do and you connected to it, you should start to see more value on this. And I can tell you from the few people I know in the healthcare side, they're not all over this. It's science people that are, but there's too many people that are doubting this. So, you guys can read this on your own. It's been an important week in my mind. We'll see if Bitcoin can stay above the 200 day moving average. For those of you who want to reach out, just call Mark, email Mark Whailing. I think it's an important time. The crypto stuff will be a video and papers that come out probably weekly. They'll be on the subscriber site, both the videos and that. If you guys are interested, great.
76:11 You can go over to the website. This will be part of everyone who's already signed up as a subscriber. There's no additional cost. It's just going on there, which means if anyone subscribes primarily for the crypto side, you're going to get the AI side, too. You can find out more about it. Have a great week, guys. I will see you definitely from Brooklyn next week. Sorry for the little glitch in the video. but when you're oneman show, sometimes you just got to make do. See youa.