Transcript
0:00 Okay. Tom, you highlighted the upcoming IPO calendar as one of the three risk factors in the second half of the year. Could you go into a little more depth about the impact you think the IPO calendar is going to have on the market? What why that would be a risk factor? >> Yeah, I'm glad to. and of course, I think Mark's views are going to be very important here. We did a We did publish a chart a couple weeks back showing you the top 10 largest IPOs and stock market returns around those periods of time. And I'd say it's kind of a 50/50 thing. Half of the time it occurs near a period of where there was subsequent stock market congestion, like stocks had to absorb that supply. And other times it was a positive catalyst and the market strengthened from there.
1:02 The total S&P market cap I'm sorry, the total stock market cap today is around 45 trillion. And that means the total IPOs that are coming are roughly two trillion dollars. between SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI. That's 5% of the stock market. That That's like way bigger than anything we've ever seen ever. And So, one, that's a that's potentially big supply once the shares unlock.
1:47 The IPO itself isn't big cuz let's say SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are about a hundred billion. There's seven trillion in cash on the sidelines. I I think it's there's plenty of firepower to buy those IPOs. And I also think a lot of private allocation to alternatives, pensions and family offices or over allocated to private alternatives, you know, venture and private equity. They're going to rotate into public equity.
2:18 But we have to keep in mind there's going to be, you know, 3 trillion of value unlocked in 6 months. I mean, that's a lot of supply coming to the stock market. So, I I think that's what has to be absorbed, but I don't know, Mark, I'll be curious your take.