Nvidia Stock’s Next BIG Move‼️‼️

0:00 All right, next up here. Let's talk about if there's any hope for Nvidia stock. Then we'll get into some great news for SoFi, great news for Cake and the next AMD MU type moves. Okay, Nvidia, look at this. I mean, this is since, you know, we backed up to about Halloween of last year and the stock has about a five or a 6% gain to show for it. The numbers are amazing, right? But the stock is just kind of like, you know, not performing the way you would want it to perform, especially given the numbers they're they're putting on, right? So, if you buy a stock like Nvidia, you want the stock to go to 10 trillion market cap, right? This is a $5 trillionish market cap right now. You buy a stock like Nvidia, you're trying to double up your money over the next few years. So, how do they go from 5 trillion to 10 trillion? Here's how they could do it.

0:47 China. China. The China market for Nvidia has been kind of closed uh for a bit here, right? They're doing business still in China, but it's not much. If the Chinese market can open up, that opens up a monumental opportunity for Nvidia, right? Not only that, but if there's a lot more demand from the Chinese market, they could go up on price or hold price very steady for their US customers as well, right? And they could maybe even push up margins again, which some of the worry around Nvidia recently has been where are the margins headed over the next year or two. If all a sudden you get a lot of demand from China as well, that would help Nvidia keep margins very, very strong, right? because it puts another massive buyer in the market that's just not really there for the company right now. Um, especially in regards to their higherend GPUs. So, I think if we got some really good news in regards to China, that is the thing that could could propel Nvidia to a 10 trillion market cap. If you can't get the Chinese market online in a major way, it's going to be tough.

1:58 And the reason it's going to be tough is you got to understand companies like Meta, Microsoft, Google, all the big companies that are spending all the fortunes of money, right? Amazon, like those companies are about maxed out with their budgets. They're going to be able to go up a little bit next year, maybe the year after if they want, but it's not like they're going to be able to go through the roof because they're already spending like almost their entire operating cash flow on just capex, right? So there's not huge budget increases coming from those companies in future years.

2:28 And additionally, AMD is now finally throwing their hat in the ring and they're going to start stealing market share. It starts in the back half of this year and it will continue for the next several years, right? So AMD is going to take market share, compound it with these companies don't have huge levels to raise capex in the future years, which means Nvidia's revenue growth opportunity for the next three years is much more limited than you know the excitement opportunities they had in the past few years. Unless unless that Chinese market really opens up for real and Nvidia can really sell their higherend GPUs and the Chinese want to buy them. Right? So that's how you could get this company to $10 trillion market cap, but it's understand it's got to that's what's got to happen to get them there. Right? Now here's the issue.

3:14 Nvidia says it has largely conceded China's AI chip market to Huawei. Right? And you know this is really a shame because Nvidia got forced to take an L here. Nvidia would have won the Chinese market for AI. There's no doubt in my mind, right? They would have been built beat Huawei. They would have beat everybody, right? And it's unfortunate because the thing is with American companies, you let American companies play, they're going to win. It's proven again and again and again. If you just let them play and give them an equal playing field, they will win, Nvidia would have won easily. But because of the geopolitics and, you know, the tariffs and all this fighting back and forth between the US and China, because of all that drama, Nvidia got forced to take an L here and concede the Chinese market to Huawei. Right? No, that doesn't mean they're forever done there, but you know, the further this game goes along, the tougher and tougher it is going to be for Nvidia to ever be a major player in China again, right? So, if something's going to happen here, we need it to happen quickly. Now, Jensen's doing everything in his power to try to make things right. He's been over there to China a few times now at this point in time. And guess what? The other big dog, Lisa Sue, she just met this past week with the Chinese Vice Premiere. The big dogs are trying to really open up that Chinese market because this is a huge monumental opportunity for AMD, for Nvidia, and we'll see. We'll see. The bottom line is you just let those companies compete, man, they're going to win. They're going to win. It always happens, right? So, we'll see. How would you like access to all my best course curriculums? My becoming master the stock market course, my stock market investing mastery course, my stock options mastery course, my millionaire playbook. How would you like access to all my best courses? As well as the ability to have access to my six and seven figure plus Discord community where we're constantly keeping in touch with each other, talking about what's going on in the market. How would you like exclusive weekly videos from me?

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5:55 Listen, we have the S&P 500 futures up very nicely, right? Green, green, green across the board. Um, and this is on the back of some geopolitical related things, right? And so, uh, obviously if we're in a situation where things could calm down in the Middle East, oil price comes down, that leads to less fear about what? Inflation. less fear about inflation leads to potentially the Fed lowering interest rates um this year maybe a few times right and then take that whole I mean Edarn Denny was out recently talking about potentially they might hike rates in July and I was like that's a little crazy of a thought right but the fact that even a thought of a possibility like we got to get rid of that right um so the moral of the story is here brighter days ahead and that would mean brighter days ahead for a lot of stocks out there specifically Right now the market really you got to understand is really being held up by Nvidia AMD AMD's market cap keeps going up. Micron, semiconductor stocks, Avago, right? Um TSM, like these sorts of big stocks are really uh you know have this market kind of rocketing higher. ASML, like there's a bunch of those anything in relation to that whole AI trade. And then you can even talk about some stocks like Caterpillar and a few other infrastructure type plays, right?

7:14 [snorts] But look at Nvidia's market cap weight. This is actually fascinating, right? Nvidia's market cap weight in the S&P 500, for instance, is the same as the entire industrial sector. It's more than the entire health care sector. It's more than entire consumer staples. It's dramatically more than energy, dramatically more than utilities or real estate or materials, right? And it's only a little bit behind consumer discretionary. That's how big Nvidia's become at this point in time. So the moral of the story is here in regards to the market, right? Intel, Nvidia, AMD, Micron, all these stocks top and start going down. Until that happens, the market's going higher. Now, you can have a debate if these stocks are going to top this year, next year, 2028, 2029.

8:06 That's a fair debate. We can debate when that's going to happen, right? And a lot of that's going to be dependent upon when do all the big tech companies slow down spending. If they do slow down spending, right? Does it happen next year? Does it happen the following year? Does it happen the following year? Right? We could have debates about that. But the moral of the story is right now is fun times. And until you break Nvidia, until you break AMD, until you break Micron, until you break Broadcom, those sorts of stocks, until you break Caterpillar and the infrastructure plays, until you break that, you're going higher for this market. Once that's broken, then we can talk about the market will go lower, right? But is that happening right now? No. Nvidia just came in and smashed it. AMD just came in and smashed it. Next quarter is going to be even way better. Next quarter after that, guess what? Way better. Next quarter after that, guess what? Way better. The next quarter after that, guess what? Way better. Way better. Way better for the next several years.

9:03 So, we'll talk before the numbers top, right? But once again, that's a debate. Like, you know, AMD could run to a 2 or3 trillion market cap in the meantime. You know, some people think it's going to be a $5 trillion market cap. Like, that's another debate we can have. But the moral of the story is we're going higher. So, at least in the shorter term. Once again, two years from now, five years from now, we can debate when when you know we reverse and go the other way. But for right now, this is party times in regards to these specific stocks. Now, if you want some other good news for the market overall, let me share some very, very good news with you. Okay, I posted this on my X page.

9:39 My X page is always linked in the description area down there. I always post a lot of stuff on there, especially Monday through Friday. If you want to follow me on X, feel free. Like I said, it's always linked in the description area down there. The pinned comment will be for the the Patreon sale here today though. But listen, if you look at the public account, right? What do we find? We find a couple stocks are at right around 52 week highs. AMD and Amazon, right? And then we hit buy countless stocks in the public account. The public account looks so amazing, right? $4.1 million, banging. But look at how many stocks are near 52-E lows or more toward a 52- week low from MATA, right? We have uh what stock is this here? Salesforce, right? Nike, American Express, even Estee Lauder, uh Palunteer, Honest, PayPal, Celsius, Service Now, uh Google's not Google's doing amazing, right? Uh that's another like AI related play as far as Google, McDougall goes, right? So, Revolve, Elf, whenever these stocks are going to come back to life. I can tell you that much. they will come back to length and they will go on an epic run and that's the exciting thing is maybe whenever the AI trade breaks once again we could debate is it next year is the following year whatever right but maybe when money starts to move out of the AMDs and the Nvidas and the Microns and Broadcoms and Google's and all these companies that have been rolling maybe that money moves into the stocks that have been stocking for the last several years and there's a high probability of that right and you know I wish the numbers ers could just go up to infinity for all these AI infrastructure related plays, right? But obviously it's not possible. There's only so much money to go around, right? And these companies capex is already, you know, ridiculous numbers. And so for AMD, they can continue to benefit uh from CPU demand and GPU demand, and they're going to take they're basically going to take market share in GPUs over the next several years. And then CPUs are about to go through a massive kind of boom cycle here. So exciting times but you know obviously that's not going to last forever as if you consumer stocks when those go on a run they don't last forever right you could have a beautiful 2 to 5 year run in any space and then it comes to an end right and that doesn't mean those companies go bankrupt or they're screwed but they go through a big down cycle and money rotates to other places and so my belief is when we go through the next cycle of money starts to come out and it will happen over several years and Nvidia will be the first to get hit out of everything even though their numbers are the best of everything. They were the first to rise out of everything. So Nvidia will be first and so money will start to rotate out of Nvidia once again. Debate is it next year? Is it the following year? whatever money will start to rotate out of Nvidia first and then they will start to move into likely stocks like consumer stocks that have sucked for years and that will become the next play as you get lower interest rates you get more confidence about the economy which there hasn't been confidence about the economy since what 2021 and even back then we were kind of going through still kind of rona so people were still worried about the economy we we've had e we've had worries about the economy like we could say in in a real way since Rona I I mean, the last time people really viewed the economy as and being in a stronger place was prior to Rona.

12:57 It was like 2019, right? 2018, 2017. People viewed the economy as like a good economy, right? And ever since then, it's been a mess because we had high unemployment during Rona, but then you had stimulus, so it kind of offset that. Then we went through the super high inflation. And ever since then, there's been uh, you know, none of the consumer stocks have worked. It's been a brutal environment for consumer stocks, anything that's selling to people, right? And so anyways, you know, that's a whole situation there and those stocks will come back to life and they're going to have a big party. But right now, it's it's semiconductor's party, right? And and if you're in semiconductor stocks, you know, your portfolio is probably close to alltime highs or at alltime highs right now, right? Okay. So, let's go ahead and react to some videos.

13:39 >> Come back. So, so how do you assess this now? We've we've cleared the way, right? All the AI stuff's now out of the way. We're looking at yields. We're looking at oil. We're looking at the Middle East, but how do you feel about this market when you just heard Chris Harvey at the top of our show saying we're going to have an everything rally that's going to take us past 8,000 by the end of the year?

14:00 >> Yeah, Scott. Um, yeah, I I think the market is pretty healthy. Um, it showed resilience in the face of higher oil, higher yields, but I also think the US is >> Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Hold your horses one flipping flat jacket moment. A I don't think the market's healthy. The market's not healthy in the respect of, you know, it was just like a what was it a week or two ago I was talking on the channel about 70 plus per stock uh 70% plus of stocks in the Russell 3000 which just think of it as basically the stock market were down double digit percentages or more from their highs.

14:37 That's not actually a healthy market. We have the very top of the market healthy, but outside of that, we actually don't have a healthy market right now. A healthy market would be 70% plus of stocks are within 10% of an all-time high in the Russell 3000. Now, that would be a healthy market and that would be like everything rally type market. This is just a few select stocks that are pulling the whole market up. pretty unique because we do have a structural driver for the economy which is not only is the US the producer of AI but we are also uh relatively energy independent and that's been exposed by this war and the consumers in pretty good shape. So I mean I I think there is a pretty good runway. So I'd agree with the idea that stocks compared to the start of this year have more upside into year end.

15:26 We've got a few things we have to work through as we get later through the year, but I think for now the fundamentals are healthy and that's supported by earnings. >> I don't know I don't know what shape the consumers in to be honest with you. I mean I understand the K-shaped economy obviously top of the K is better than the bottom of the K in terms of the durability to keep spending. But you listen to Walmart which was pretty cautious and you're like what is the real state of the consumer? And if oil prices remain elevated for too long is that the thing that wrecks the story?

15:56 Uh Scott, yeah, it is in a way it is K-shaped because if I had to say, okay, what are the things that are sort of ballast and things moving the consumer? Of course, we know that it's higher gasoline, higher food, and of course, there's going to be a shortage of some petroleum products. But on the other end of that spectrum is, you know, the wealth that's going to be created by the IPO, SpaceX, Open AI, etc. I mean, that's several trillion dollars worth.

16:22 And as we know there's like a marginal propensity to consume from the wealth effect. So I think the consumer is getting a tailwind later this year but a lot of it is if for those who own equity >> I mean a tailwind from the from owning the IPOs. >> Well the it's actually the private investors as we know SpaceX was probably seated at you know $50 million. It probably raised you know tens of billions over the last uh decade. But now it's going to have a a net worth valuation of around 1.7 trillion. So that that's actually now going to be monetized uh for the LPS of the funds that invested in SpaceX. So they're you know several trillion dollars is is quite a lot of stimulus to the economy.

17:06 >> Wow. Okay. U Hampton's real estate market. Watch out. >> Yeah. Totally. No. That that was stretch stretch city right there. No sir. Come on. Come on. >> Uh AI trade. How how do you feel about it >> after Nvidia? >> Uh I mean a company with the the size of revenues Nvidia growing it um I think shows that there is still uh you know unrelenting demand for for the product Nvidia sells and then we know that those who are starting to use AI are actually noticing of a gain of function on productivity. You know, Ken Griffin really stated it well when he says he he could see it's replacing a lot of analysts. So, to me, I think not only are the users of AI benefiting, but there's still a shortage of those who are supplying the equipment, but aren't you still calling for a pullback in stocks and something meaningful like the one we had already didn't really qualify, if you will, under what you were thinking could happen, right?

18:09 >> That's right, Scott. I think we had uh like what Edini would call a rolling bare market and things like mag 7 and of course last year in energy but in software etc. But I think later this year the market is going to confront a few things you know one of course is just your typical midterm seasonality you know the uncertainty into that. The second is that there is a a a day of reckoning coming because the inventory of petroleum products is short and not being alleviated anytime soon.

18:39 And the third is uh we probably have some concerns later as the as these IPOs come SpaceX, OpenAI, etc. that there's a lockup expiration later. So I I think that's a supply overhang. So I think that dynamic comes to play later this year. But in the meantime, I think investors are focusing on AI fundamentals and you know there's a real shortage and and stocks that are working are the ones that are selling something that's scarce. >> So the most painful thing that could happen in the stock market, let me tell you about what could happen here. Okay, usually in a midterm election year, you have a lot of weakness in the starts in late spring and goes into the summer, right? And then usually you kind of bottom out the market around Halloweenish and then you start another big bull run, right? The most painful thing that could actually happen to the market is because a lot of people sold out of the market back in March and April, right? Most painful thing is this market just keeps rallying.

19:38 all the way into fall and then we have a fall in the fall, right? Uh maybe we have a very very shaky October, November, December and we have a correction in the market or something like that, right? But we just absolutely rip this market all through the summer, right? All the way until we get to October. That would be so painful, so dang painful for uh a lot of individuals because so many people went to cash and are in cash right now. And for them to just see this market roll higher, you know, they're going to be like, I got to get in. And you know, all a sudden, next thing you know, they get in, they they can't take the pain anymore, right? Of being on the sideline and just watching the market go up a percent day after day after day. So then they they finally get in the market like September, October, and then we have a correction in the market. Are you kidding me? Like I just got in, right? Um, which is once again why Oh, I don't know why I'm lagging here. That's once again why you just say focus on the long term. You don't try to play these games getting it out of the market, back in the market, out of the market. Like we don't need to do all that. We don't need to do all that. It's just a fool's game. Um for fool's gold as they want to make sure I heard you right. Are you calling for a rolling bare market in mag seven names? Cuz is that what you're looking for? You look for these stocks to become weaker at some point and dramatically so at some point this year. Is that is that what I heard you say?

21:03 Oh, to clarify, I think that I think we've already had a bare market in Mag 7 and software. I think there's going to be a bare market in other stocks later this year. Yes. Um, but I think it's going to spare the Mag 7 and software. So, it's going to be names that either got lofty or are going to be affected by the fact that there is a lot of supply of new stock later this year or the companies that are going to get hit by this shortage in petroleum products. So, I think there's reasons that we could have headwinds later this year.

21:34 >> Are you talking about like semiconductor stocks? >> Yeah, semis may become a bubble. They're they to me they don't seem like a bubble yet. You know, when Nvidia is trading at 19 times earnings, I think it's still a good riskreward. >> Um, but I think that there are parts of that ecosystem that have become quite expensive. >> That's fair.