Transcript
0:00 I mean, Tom, you you see the activity in the microns and the snowflakes and and you think what as you watch this market? >> Well, I I think it was a great conversation with Liz, but one thing to keep in mind is now that Q1 earnings is behind us, people thought S&P earnings would be $70. It's going to come in at 80. So, that's a $10 beat. That's $40 annualized. That means that this added the upside to earnings is somewhere between 800 and 1,000 points of S&P upside. I think the entire rally since April could be explained by just the Q1 earnings beat.
0:37 >> You're calling for a three-phase market still. Explain to our viewers again what what what that means. >> Yes, our base case for this year, which we expected it to be a challenging year and it feels like it, is we would rally towards 7,300 initially. Now, we're above that, but I think >> Yeah, and I think we can get to maybe 7,700 as high as 7,700, but I think then we're going to digest a lot of things until October. And that's a new Fed chair.
1:06 It's the energy shock that Liz talked about, especially shortages of petroleum products and lubricants. You know, AutoNation talked about it. And the third is the IPOs of SpaceX opening and Anthropic that when the unlocks happen, that's a lot of extra supply. So, I think that could pressure stocks in a way that feels like a bear market. But then post-midterms, I think we rally strongly in and 2027 is a year where we might see some of the best returns we've ever seen in our lifetime.
1:35 >> Brian.