Transcript
0:00 That number to me has to be a hundred trillion in the future. That's how much that the financial guardrails matter. And I think Bitcoin, which will stay the most important of that group, let's assume it ends up being 33% of crypto. Well, then you're talking about 33 trillion, a third of it. Let's go through where it is today at two trillion-ish. So, you can multiply that number by whatever you want, 10 to 15, and you can come up with whatever number you want. It gets you up somewhere at 600,000 or somewhere 800,000 to a million.
0:32 >> Ladies and gentlemen, my conversation with Jordi Visser this week is an important and great one. Jordi talks about what's going on with Kevin Warsh at the Fed, why Scott Bessent continues to try to manipulate the yields down lower, what's going on with Bitcoin and its continued rise from the dead, how you should think about AI, Nvidia earnings, and many other topics that transpired over the last seven days. Jordi's in rare form. He informed me, he entertained me, and I think he's going to do the same thing for you. Here's my latest conversation with Jordi Visser.
1:01 All right, Jordi. Bitcoin at 80K, you got new art, you're back in Brooklyn. I feel like, you know, all is good in the world. what are your thoughts about Bitcoin's historic recovery? >> Well, let's start with the tape. We had a a huge week, historic week, multiple standard deviation move as we talked about last week. And we're consolidating that move. 82,000 is a natural resistance point. I think 74,000 is the support level that matters the most when you start getting back towards the 200-day moving average. And I think any consolidation here is is good.
1:41 I think overall, when you when you look at the tape, and I want to make sure people kind of take this the the the important side. A lot of people reached out to me this week on Nvidia. Marvell reported last night. Nvidia was up big. Marvell's down. And they're asking questions like, okay, are you adding here? Are you putting in stuff here? And I think it's important for people listening to this to hear my response because my mindset has evolved since June and I've been more focused on the application side and the rise of agent applications and the fact that I believe the next year is all about software that uses agents, applications and including things like Eli Lilly that need agents. Everything that's using agents. Grok Bot is another one of these components. And so I say to people, if you have a you know, a certain amount of money, let's assume you have $100 to invest.
2:44 I have more money focused on crypto right now and it's not just Bitcoin. It's Ethereum. It's Solana. I believe we are at the agentic application side and that every year going forward more and more dollars are going to go towards the financial guardrails, towards making sure agents can do transactions. I think this is where people's mindset should be. So I view crypto and Bitcoin and Ethereum and Solana all having a better opportunity over the next 12 months even though I believe that the AI names that I focus my attention on the infrastructure side, I still think they'll outperform the S&P significantly over the next 12 months. Maybe you get 50% in those crypto names. We did that in 50 days during the first quarter. So you have to just realize that right now momentum is still being unwound. Hedge funds are still incredibly correlated to the AI infrastructure trade and we continue to see deleveraging happening throughout the hedge fund world because of the disruption that happened in July.
3:49 And so as we talked about a few months ago, Korea, which was a huge participant in the crypto market, well, it was much easier to be involved in the AI market, and I sent you something this week highlighting that hey, volumes are starting to explode in Korea on crypto. So, I think once we get through a normal consolidation after a big move higher, I think you're going to continue to see this. And I'll just add one more thing cuz I posted this in X.
4:15 Another thing for the tape is now we have the 200-day moving average pointed upward in both the Ethereum and Bitcoin. And if you go back and look at the times, and I did this, and I posted in X, where you stay below the 200-day moving average for a certain amount of time, and then you break back above it, and then it turns up. How does Bitcoin do from that point moving forward? And the numbers speak for themselves.
4:41 so, I think we're in the beginning stage of something that people should be focused more on a year on, and not just focused on what's happened over the course of the last 2 weeks. >> Now, you mentioned one thing that I I just want to spend a little bit of time on, which is South Korea. there have been some talk of what's going on in Korea, but I think people don't quite understand how important that specific country is to the flows of Bitcoin and also the AI world. I remember earlier this year I went to a conference, and there was somebody who runs a very large company in South Korea, and he said, you know, all of the retail investors, they're not talking at all about Bitcoin or cryptocurrency. And he was talking about that as like the industry basically the interest has died, and all of that capital has shifted to the AI trade. And they were going and buying SK and, you know, all these different things, including 2x levered, you know, type exposure, etc.
5:31 It does seem like it is rotating back, and maybe even data point that I feel, but haven't looked at, you know, from from a quantitative standpoint, at night, when that Korean market starts to open, Bitcoin does seem to surge. You know, even the last couple of days you start hitting right around the Korean open, you start seeing Bitcoin, you know, get a little pop. And so, it are they in control of the market? Like are is that the most important country for Bitcoin right now?
5:59 >> No, I I don't think it's the most important, but I do think it fits in with something I had talked about at let's say the worst of the bear market, which was the first stage of crypto has to be a combination. It has to be driven by the energy of retail. And Korea is a big retail part of the globe. I mean, their stock market was up significantly and even with the I mean, the epic fall that we've seen and all the stories we've heard about a margin margin accounts being liquidated and things like that, I mean, their market is still up more than almost any other market in the world. And we're talking 60 plus percent. So, they matter a lot in terms of the fact that they definitely have that energy that you're looking for.
6:40 But, retail is the first phase of this. We also get a lot of short covering. And you've obviously seen a lot of short covering in crypto as well. To sustain a move, Korea itself is not going to take it higher. What needs to happen is people from an investment standpoint need to believe in the investment side going forward. And that's why I continue to bring it back to AI agents. My video this weekend, I'm I'm in the final stages of of finishing it up.
7:07 But, the YouTube this week it's the first time that I'm spending time on Ethereum and Solana. Like, I'm really focused on the network effects. I'm focused on tokenization. I think I mentioned here that I was in the New York Stock Exchange back in in early June or late May at a tokenization event. I don't think people fully grasp what is happening and how important this is. And it wouldn't matter that much except for the fact that the agents are here. So, I want people to think Korea's just a function of the same thing happening in the US, which is retail. The catalyst for this was definitely Scott Bessent basically saying we can't handle rates being above a certain level on the long end And and doing thing showing this multiple times over the course of this month. And so the old system is showing signs of not being able to handle rates. At the same time we have the crypto market going -oh, here we go. There I don't care if it's printing QE, whatever. This is an admission that the system is having problems. At the same time you have the crypto event at the White House. You have the Clarity Act that's going on.
8:10 All of these things are getting people to move over, but I would not minimize the situational awareness month of July, which took out the momentum kind of money-making side of retail or the energy of retail from AI. And I don't think that AI trade is coming back for the, you know, the next 3 months. Meaning I think it's going to be more of an investor trading market, and I think the retail community and everyone here is looking for buy. I do think 82,000 matters a lot. I did highlight that, you know, as of yesterday Solana was up 50% month to date and was the biggest monthly move since 2024. You're starting to see retail it's starting to be more fundamentally driven and that's what I care more about is less about Bitcoin, more about the fundamentally driven side because that'll bring the traditional finance investors involved.
8:56 >> When we sit down to have these conversations every week, I always try to come up with one data point that will make you smile and be surprised. And I'm going to use your own framework against you this week, which is Dogecoin is actually up as of right now 23% over the last month and Bitcoin is up 22. So basically the same, but Dogecoin does have a slight little advantage. They moved on the same day. I don't know if anyone was buying Dogecoin because of Scott Bessent's commentary in the middle of August.
9:29 What is the relationship between Dogecoin and Bitcoin now? >> Well, so when I talked about Dogecoin, what I was really looking for is that it would break out of a moving average cuz it sat underneath it. So, it did break out. Here's the thing. I think the most important part of what you're saying for people to hear, this move is very fundamentally driven. I I mean, I've said repeatedly I wanted to see Ethereum outperform Bitcoin. Well, we've had a breakout in Ethereum over Bitcoin at this point. At the same time, I wanted to see Solana also do well, and Solana's outperformed Ethereum recently. This should be fundamentally driven. This is why I've created an index with the tokens that are fundamentally relevant within inside the space. The meme stuff will be like GameStop. It'll go through, but it's not a signal that I care about other than retail feels like they can be involved and they can trade this thing from the long side. What I really want to see is that it's fundamentally driven. When I have conversations with people that are all over the AI infrastructure trade, when they talk to me about what Nvidia said, how historic this was, and they know everything up and down the line, I always redirect the question, and I'm I'm telling you they're not there yet.
10:37 Okay, you're really smart on this. Where are you on tokenization, and where are you on stable coins, where are you on the payment rails? They're nowhere. The homework hasn't even been started. This is why the biggest part of this trade is from January until whatever, August of next year. So, when I say 1 year that this is going to feel for me, this is my belief that this will be like Micron when we were talking about Micron early last year when it was 60 to 110, and then eventually got up to 1,300. That is the way I feel about crypto right now is I don't think people have done the homework yet, the same way they didn't do the homework on the AI infrastructure trade, and then you fast forward a year, now they're all in it, and they're all frustrated because it's not going up. To make money in these types of things where you're looking for three times, four times, five times, 10 times because of the exponential innovation, it has to be on areas that people haven't done the homework on, and I'm just telling you for the people I talk to that manage a lot of money, they are not focused on crypto and I think by the end of this year they will be focused and I believe Solana and Ethereum, just as a general thing, are the easiest ones for them to spend time on because they're all throughout YouTube, they've presented at conferences. I'll be showing videos this weekend that people should be I think the learning curve is starting now.
11:52 >> It is It is pretty interesting to see the relationship between these different different coins. I think you and most people watching this know that I'm exclusively focused on Bitcoin, but I think that the other things have you know important data that you can you can glean from. Kevin Warsh, obviously the new Fed chairman, he he spoke on Friday morning. I think that there was some confusion maybe about his commentary. On one hand I saw a lot of people being like oh you know he's leaving room for there to be rates rose or risen later this this year and that's new information.
12:33 The other half of people are kind of like hey this was a pretty boring speech and there's nothing new here that that we haven't already heard. What's your take on his commentary? He didn't say much that wasn't already in the the expectations going forward. I think what people were looking for is is there any indication that he's going to raise rates in September and there was nothing in there which is not too surprising, but you're still around 40% chance of a rate hike in September.
13:01 I was looking more to see the movements and I know people like to look at equities, but the best thing to do is the rate the rates didn't move too much, neither did the S&P by the time we got on here. But most importantly the currency stuff was all within one standard deviation and the dollar has had a sharp fall. So dollar yen, which to me is probably the most interesting because that is the line in the the line in the sand as the debate between whether Besson and Warsh are coordinated or not.
13:32 I think Stanley Druckenmiller, who Warsh and Besson both have been involved with, I think he kind of gave a chance here for Warsh to be Okay, focus on credibility at the same time that Besson is trying to clearly continue the bet that his current boss, Donald Trump, has, which is we're going to run it hot and we're going to try to have the humanoids and the AI agents create more GDP at a faster pace than the debt is going to rise. So, I do I do think Warsh said almost nothing that matters to me with regards to, unless he said something where we're going to drive rates to higher levels to have inflation come down now cuz we're not taking any risk. You have to remember when Jerome Powell was raising rates, he literally said, I would not invest in equities. We don't care about equities. We want them to go lower because they're a part of the problem. Financial conditions are as easy as they've ever been based on where credit spreads are and where stocks are, and Kevin Warsh is basically saying, I want inflation to go back to 2%. Great.
14:38 I'm sure if he also said, I want the deficit and the debt to go back to zero, that's not happening. So, I think a lot of this is for showmanship, it's for credibility at the Fed, but the reality is I don't think anything is going to change. We go into September and I want people to remember this. Scott Besson intervened in the yen. He's talked about using the TGA to get rates down. He's talked about he's talked about debt buybacks. He talked about increasing the debt buybacks.
15:04 It almost seems like every 3 days he's jawboning to try and get long-term rates down, but they're not really moving. So, if he wants them down, Kevin Warsh can say whatever he wants, but I'm going to go with the actions and the actions are we want rates lower on the longer end, and I don't think Kevin Warsh is going to raise rates in September when Scott Bessent is looking for the yen to relieve pressure and if he raises rates in a surprising fashion, he's kind of offsetting what Bessent is doing. This speech didn't offset anything to me.
15:33 >> Now, speaking of Scott Bessent, is this guy like the reincarnation of Miyamoto Musashi or something where if you remember there was a photo that went viral a couple of weeks ago where he had written like buy $20 billion of yen or something, right? And somebody had taken a picture of it and it was it was the only thing that was written on the piece of paper. Very interesting that that was the photo that was taken and went viral.
16:00 Then we get his commentary of hey, I'm going to go and I'm going to double the purchases. I'm going to try to get the the long-term yields down etc. And then one of his good friends happens to write a op-ed that was 100% written by AI that Druckenmiller basically comes out and says, no, you shouldn't do this. The politicians, they should stop spending money. Did they coordinate? Like do you think that there's a high likelihood that Bessent actually wanted Druck to write that and critique him in public?
16:32 >> I See, I I read it and I think the way the media has gone with this, I I I really don't think Stan attacked Bessent. I think he attacked Congress. I mean, how can you blame the person in charge now when we're at a 6% deficit and $40 trillion of debt? It didn't happen under his watch and I think if you sat in a room and having done that with Stan before and just having a one-on-one conversation saying, okay, what would you do right now? Now, I I honestly don't think and I'll be covering this this week, if you ask me because of my belief in AI, I honestly would be taking the bet that is happening within inside the equity market.
17:17 Equities are growing rapidly. PEs are going down. That's kind of the thing that's happening is we're getting into a world where the stock market is discounting a very, very different future than we all realize. It's changing terminal value. Terminal value is out 3 to 5 years. I don't think you can look at the debt and deficit problem the way it is today and not think that it the next 5 years are very, very different than just extrapolating numbers out. We have exponential innovation happening on one side. We have profit margins exploding.
17:53 We have humanoids on the horizon. I I know people don't believe this cuz I can see it after I posted something on this this week. If you're doubting the speed of AI, if you're doubting what AI agents are going to mean, I I believe there will be higher corporate taxes in the future because of humanoids to help pay down the debt. Whether or not that happens, that's my belief. I think what Stan was doing was basically speaking as someone like Paul Tudor Jones did in the fourth quarter of last year that Congress is a disgrace. The polarizing situation of just spending money without ever taking any accountability is getting it in there.
18:30 But at the same point, there isn't much choice. The stock market is 240% on its way to 300% of GDP. These companies are making an enormous amount of money. We have a distribution of wealth problem in the country that has people voting socialist. Like everything is changing and I don't think having long-term yields go up to 5 and 1/2% is going to change that. I think what he said that was important is it is the one gauge that theoretically measures the the fiscal disciplinary side of what's going on. Rates should absolutely be higher in a perfect world, but the problem is with the situation we have. They just can't let rates going higher. It's opening up Pandora's Box. So, I don't think he he attacking Bassin as much as he was attacking Congress.
19:14 >> Yeah, my guess is that's kind of why I think that maybe Bessant was he approved of this getting written or maybe encouraged Trump to to write it, right? Was this idea of like you're not saying anything I disagree with. Like you're actually saying the exact same thing I've been saying but coming from you who's not inside the administration, maybe it'll catch people's attention more. >> Yeah, I See, and I think this is where the crypto side really merges in. I think when you go through what Scott Bessant believes needs to happen. And if there's one difference between Stan and Scott. Stan is a hell of a lot more wealthy than Scott is.
19:50 And there is an issue with that because whenever Scott speaks, he is speaking in the the Donald Trump way of the redistribution of wealth in the country. And so when you have a very wealthy person who's made his money in the hedge fund world and you have someone who's now a servant of the people, I just think that there's a different message that is probably happening for people here that they should probably read through. The reason I brought up crypto into this, I really do believe the administration and Scott in particular fully believes in reading his writing, having, you know, mentioning that he he's quoting Satoshi. I you have to really understand that there you don't have to agree with it, but I happen to believe it. I happen to believe that stablecoins are a reflection that they will almost all be dollar-based. Having lived in Brazil, having sat in a room with Michael Milken where he we debated something and he looked at me and he changed my view on something for life.
20:48 If you open the doors to America for all eight billion people on the planet, there will be a line that will be never-ending. And I've it's true. And that just means that what forget the country, forget the president, forget all this. It's something about America and the dollar that matters. And so I believe stablecoins will be dollar based for the people that are seeing their currencies, which is the majority of people on the planet, be taken by the government. And so if you believe that's the case, and you believe that his angle is, "Okay, we got to keep the basis trade going cuz the hedge funds got to keep buying treasuries. We got to let the banks buy treasuries, so we got to get deregulation on the banks so they can buy more treasuries. We've got to do whatever we can do with the repo market and everything else to do this. And oh, by the way, we need stable coins to be up to $3 trillion so they can buy treasuries as well." All to let the humanoids and the speed of AI get us out of this problem. It doesn't mean it's going to work, but I do believe that that's the bet, and I think that's how crypto is directly connected to this situation.
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22:32 Institutional-grade automation that works across every major asset class. There's no more emotional trading, no more missing tax opportunities, just smarter, hands-free execution of your preferred strategies. Go to archpublic.com right now. Connect with their team, set up a time, bring your account in if you'd like, then you can learn what automated trading can do for you. archpublic.com >> Now, I interviewed one of the AI safety experts earlier this week, and and Roman is a professor at a University of Louisville.
23:04 He coined the term AI safety. He really I think is sought after for his thoughts on AI and our inability to control AI etc. In my research leading up to that interview I was surprised to find that he's a very big bitcoiner. And as I talked with him I think I understood more as to why he believes Bitcoin and AI are so related or intertwined. After you listen to the interview you reached out to me and said hey we actually have a lot of overlapping thoughts and you even used AI to kind of analyze a little bit in terms of his views and your views. Talk a little bit as to maybe you finding a kindred soul like a long lost brother in in your view of these two technologies.
23:46 >> so one of the funny things about this and I didn't I didn't give you this backdrop. My son who again is is heavily involved in building AI agents in his internship and doing all this work. He sent me a an unsolicited text about Roman. I I didn't know who Roman was at that point. No idea. And he literally said what do you think about this? Now I had to ask him exactly which part he meant because he's also said that there's a 99.99% chance that the human race will be destroyed by AI. So you have to you have to go through that that was before I even saw that you interviewed him. My son had sent me this days before. So when I saw that you had interviewed him I went to go watch it and I was immediately taken aback because aside from his in fact I sent you the comparison aside from his kind of negative end game on this whole thing that he's got the Elon Musk where Elon Musk has it as 20% this guy has it as 99.99 there was so much overlap in our beliefs but not just our beliefs. I wrote and I released a substack this week saying the silent IPO a paper that I wrote last year on the fact that the distribution of Bitcoin, this was the normal time when the technology is not ready yet.
25:04 And this gets directly into AI agents. So, your interview with him, every step of the way, what AI agents are going to do, the disruption to public stocks and public companies, the inability for people to compete, the disruption that will happen, the fact that the financial guardrails need to be changed, that AI will destroy all certainty, all trust. Everything fits into the blockchain and fits into Bitcoin. And so, when I saw that, he's basically talking the same thing.
25:33 You have to invest in scarcity at this point, which I believe in. So, if you take what he said and you take what I wrote and you just summarize it into, let's say, or I I I make it simple in two levels, he's been an AI safety expert and renowned, from my little readings, all the way back to when machine learning really started to take off. So, in 2010 to 2013 is when he was being interviewed on this. He was interviewed on Diary of a CEO last year, and that's where I saw it. That one had like 20 plus million views.
26:07 if you take his conversation then versus one, the one big thing that he's come to is Bitcoin, meaning this is something that he absolutely believes now is a hedge in the same way that I do against you get AI up to a certain intelligence, that's what we've been spending time doing for the last 15 years. So, you have to remember, to get it to an IQ of 150, you have to have all of this compute power, you have to have all of this training, you have to get it there.
26:36 That's where we are. At that level, that allows AI agents to come, but eventually you get to recursive self-improvement, cuz these guys are going so fast and they're working 24/7 and they're solving all problems, because they're getting smarter at the same time that there's billions of agents, that eventually you can't humans can't compete with them. And so a company that is an organization with lots of people cannot bolt on AI to survive. So, if he's right and I'm right there is at least some probability that the two of us coming one from a capital markets perspective, one from an AI coding perspective, there is no overlap between our views other than this thing.
27:16 I believe this is where if you say what percent of money should you hold in crypto or in Bitcoin forget a number, think of it as a probability. What is the probability that your investments will be disrupted by AI? If you believe it's 5%, then put 5% in Bitcoin. If you believe it's 50, then 50. Whatever the number is, it's your own personal level, but that's the way I think if you take what he said what I wrote about this week, not ever hearing the person. I just thought it was amazing the connection between the two things.
27:51 >> I am when I looked at the AI comparison of your thoughts, that was my exact takeaway as well. Is two people from two different worlds coming to a very similar conclusion. Usually is a pretty good sign that that there's more investigating to do there. speaking of investigating, the stat of the week Nvidia is now doing more than a billion dollars of revenue per day. I just want to let say everyone think about that for a second.
28:16 One billion dollars per day in revenue. I mean, this is insane. What was your takeaway from their earnings? >> I think the biggest takeaway was just how far above the street they are for next year in their own views. And most companies that are growing like this, they usually are somewhat conservative to leave a little room for beating the numbers. I mean, we're we're talking about 70% rev next year.
28:49 Like so when you're doing a billion dollars a day and then you think the growth rate is still near 100% near doubling. I I I mean it's just an it it's something that you can't believe but then when you throw in the fact that off 2027 earnings with the earnings revisions that happened in the in the minutes after. I was looking at it this morning. I believe now for 2028 they've got $20 for earnings on a $220 stock. So the PEs going out for a company still growing their revenues at this pace. I mean this is the opposite of the dot com bubble where Cisco was trading at 100 times PE and Nvidia's called the Cisco of this time. You still have Michael Burry not none of the perma bears. Nothing could happen in the report for them to change their mind. It's actually hilarious to go through X and they go searching for something in there. See circular finance. I told you.
29:49 I I just I don't understand how people cannot be just shocked and in awe of the fact that okay this is what they're doing. We now have compute futures are out there. They have all of the prices of the chips and the compute going forward further ahead. If everyone gets the chance I don't know if I mentioned this to you and kind of sending you what I thought was interesting from the week from my side. the Patel boys the roommates Dwarkesh and Dylan phenomenal one hour talk in the the the the summer doldrums of the last week of August. amazing conversation and they just talked about so many things that are so important on this front. They didn't mention open source as a threat.
30:38 I mean this is two very smart people. One who interviews the smartest people in Silicon Valley and has to do his research and he's renowned for doing insane research on these things, understanding it a very high level, but then also his roommate who he plays video games with, who's the number one guy in semiconductors at the heart of it and data centers. to hear them talk about what's going on and basically say that we won't have enough compute ever. And if you guys get a chance to listen to it, this is also about OpenAI and Anthropic and the fact that there's a really interesting point that they have such high margins that they have the ability of paying for all of the compute that comes online because they have orders coming in for their intelligence, which is far better.
31:25 So this is a very, very unique situation that could end up with a monopoly to some degree on compute with OpenAI and Anthropic. So if you're looking for a reason why Anthropic is going public, why OpenAI is going public, these guys alone are going to be the ones that need all of the compute. And so all of that lines up with there's just we're we're still in this thing where there's insatiable demand for compute and most people are scared of this and worried about it.
31:53 >> You know, what's interesting to me about these conversations is it's not just what I'll call market commentators, researchers, podcasters talking about what's going on, but you also see the people who are driving the industry sharing clips and podcast episodes of those people. So it's almost like there is as much learning from the commentary group from the leaders of the industry as there is the industry leaders learning from the commentators.
32:25 And I I think back to I don't know, 15 years ago, there was not this much like open-sourcing of knowledge and information. And so people talk about, you know, the technology innovation, the talent, the, you know, obviously the abundance of intelligence coming from AI. I actually think the amount of content on the internet is accelerating everyone's lessons learned. And it is a huge driving factor of why, to your point, there's almost like this machine time now.
32:55 Right? Is you basically have Elon Musk going on a podcast or Jensen going on a podcast, and they explain in great detail. And that gives an idea to five entrepreneurs who then figure out, "Hey, I can go take, you know, this and do this." And next thing you know, they push the pace of innovation. But then they go on a podcast, and then Jensen sees a clip online, and then he's like, "Hey, well, based on that, we should be doing this."
33:15 And so it does feel like, there's this hive mind online that is all working on a group project. And the group project is like, how do we build, you know, ASI or AGI? And then how do we also build all the infrastructure necessary to run this? And it's pretty cool, frankly, just to watch this all play out, because you would never have access to these people, you know, without the last 15 years of like the digital content world, getting to the point that it is.
33:44 >> So, this is an important point, that you're making. And while you were saying it, the way my brain works is I start thinking about a lot of things that are connecting dots for me. So, I want to go back to something I've said a lot and take it into why I'm doing what I do. cuz people have watched this now. We've had We We have consistent numbers of viewers. So, they they know us. They know you, for sure. They've gotten to know me. And I've said that I hated school growing up. And the reason I hated school, I definitely have, the ability to process an enormous amount of information in a short amount of time.
34:17 Which means the downside is I get very bored in static environments where it's taking too long. so if you think about what's happening in the world right now like a sporting event. And you watch a football game, and then Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, all they do is tell you the score of the game at the end. Nvidia beat earnings by this, these are the highlights. But if you watch the game, maybe the Giants won the game by 20 points, but you know they lost the yardage game. they they lost the the turnover battle. They were lucky to win because there were three bad mistakes on the other side. So you've watched the nuance of the game. What podcast X and all of this real-time information is is like watching a game and getting all of the nuances within it. And all you're getting from the banks, someplace I work, by the time it goes through the legal scrumming, the bureaucracy of the place, the amount of phone calls, there's no way you're getting real-time information. You're getting some kind of a BS summary. So the reason I decided not to work in the hedge fund world anymore, my choice. People call still now because I built the business and like, "Why don't you come here? You can help us.
35:28 We'll pay you money and do this." I don't want to work for anyone. I don't want to manage anyone, but part of the reason is because I'm learning so much by using Grok Bot all day, by using each of the AIs. Doing the videos I do each week forces me to do the homework on everything that's going on. That's why I said right now most of my time is shifting towards Solana and Ethereum. I already know why Bitcoin will be something. I've already proven to myself that Bitcoin is just the S&P 500 of the future. It's the purest AI trade. It represents the ecosystem of crypto, but in the purest sense, the ecosystem should not be forming when we start transitioning to where the crypto guardrails are actually being used and deployed. And the only way they can be used properly is by AI agents. For those of you haven't seen this week, Elon Musk, when someone asked, "Hey, I want to use Grok Bot for bank account." He said, "Oh, okay, yeah. Here's what we'll do. If you guys are worried that your money's going to be stolen by your AI agent, xAI will guarantee you your money. Just go use it." He's trying to get entrepreneurs to use this stuff. The banks aren't able to do this. They're not able to be on top of this. So, I just think when you're thinking about the world and particularly with your children, if you have someone that seems a little bit ADHD, they're able to consume a lot of information. If they go to school, they're trying to get their brains to stay within side a vertical and actually get a major and do this.
36:45 Part of what's going on is you can learn multiple things very quickly, connect dots, and that's why I always say, if you want to have an AI mindset, you have to think like a Quantico grad, not like a Harvard grad. You have to be able to think about things that are outside the box that maybe you're not thinking, that are all thinking in bets. It's why I recommend you getting Annie Duke's bet book. You have to really be Bayesian in the approach you have. New information's going to come in all the time, and you have to be willing to say, "You know what? I'm worried about open-source. You know what? These numbers on Why would we care if Anthropic's numbers are 67 or 72? What does that actually mean at the end?" You guys are trying to take exponential growth and convert it into some linear thing where historically it's meant like to be able to do that, I think you have to be doing what you're saying, which is stay on top of the podcast, see everything that's happening, because what happens in a week is what used to happen in a quarter, and that just means the game is moving so fast that you can't get just the final score and actually know what's happening.
37:40 >> Do you worry on the Nvidia side, it's only up 25% over the last year? You know, one one year, 25% given the growth rate, given, you know, all the stuff that they were talking about, how exciting it is, I think a lot of people would think that it should be up more. Is that a bullish sign? Hey, it should be up more, it's not, and there's more for this to run? How do you look at, you know, 25% obviously is a big number given how big the company is, but but still it's not like it's up 50, 60, 70% like their growth rate is.
38:11 >> So, two two things just regarding the investing side that fit in with the first conversation we had about crypto and Bitcoin. Pa- part of what drives a a stock is how many people already know the situation and how many people are already involved. The second thing is opportunity cost. Right now, there's a lot of stocks going up a lot. And they're attracting a lot of dollars. To move Nvidia right now, it's I mean, $5 trillion is not an easy thing to move around. Like it's it it takes a lot of dollars, marginal dollars, to get that thing to move. This is why I always say, Nvidia is what? Almost two times the size of the crypto market cap.
38:54 Like it's much easier to go buy crypto and say, "Hey, I think it's going to go." So, opportunity cost number two. Number three, and probably most importantly, do I think that Nvidia 5 years from now that their business will be able to grow at this pace? Absolutely not. do I think right now we're in the sweet spot of the infrastructure buildout? Yes. We are absolutely in this. Do I think that there will be competition? Jalapeno was released or is being used by Open AI.
39:26 It's not going to disrupt their numbers this year. It's not going to disrupt them next year. But when you go through what happened, for those who don't know, this is a chip designed by Open AI by AI. At some point, the design starts happening. And then when humanoids start going on, the question is, will the advantage that Nvidia has had, the moat that they've had with CUDA and with the designs and how quickly they've brought them out? Will this get to a point where number one, this all changes? The second thing is, will we get algorithmic efficiencies to where we don't need as much Of course we will.
40:01 it's a very inefficient system. The human brain does far more calculations than this can. We need more power to do that. So, when you listen to Gavin Baker, when we actually go on the edge and we're able to do the kinds of work we need, and people don't actually need that much. We're not there yet. We still have another three to five years of needing a lot. So, the fact that it's this cheap to me means, "Hey, 30% a year is a good return." So, when you say it's up this much, I I bet by the end of the year, we will have outperformed the S&P. And again, Nvidia has outperformed even though it's been stuck in the mud over the course of the last two years, I think the AI infrastructure names are going to go through the same thing. You have to think hard about this terminal value thing. Go read the paper I wrote on the Xilinx IPO. If you don't truly have scarcity, which Nvidia right now has scarcity, but at some point, five years from now, six years from now, it won't have scarcity, the value of Nvidia is the total sum of the future discounted cash flows. If all of the sudden, that PV starts to change cuz you're like, "You know what? We won't need any GPUs in 10 years."
41:09 Well, then Nvidia is not going to be worth as much as it is. So, I just think that's what's going on with Nvidia, and I think people should pay attention more and more to this concept of what's true scarcity in a world of AI. >> Now, this idea of scarcity, I think has become obviously a debasement trade. If I look I was just looking at the Google trend data, and you look at interestingly, the phrase money printer has pretty much become a meme and is fairly consistent in the search trends since 2021, you know, give or take.
41:41 Debasement looks like it exploded in popularity, it fell, and now it's coming back. So, the idea of debasement to me is more of a index on the investment theme, whereas money printer is like a social construct. It's It's like a meme, right? I am surprised as to how much the debasement trade idea had kind of dissipated now looking back. But, it feels like it is rapidly showing up and people saying, "Hey, oh my god, I forgot about this almost. Like I need to go buy this." Bitcoin and gold correlation is the highest it's ever been.
42:18 Do these two assets just become you know, almost proxies for each other at some point? Or do you see investors putting money in their portfolio into Bitcoin or gold for different reasons? Like is there Or are they just married together in in that correlation we should expect to stay as high or higher going forward? And it's just like the debasement trade is one big trade? Or do you see some sort of difference between maybe Bitcoin and gold?
42:43 >> so, the debasement trade is the narrative. I believe this is about scarcity. So, those are the two If you had to pick which two assets are the definitions of of scarcity, those are the two that have been chosen. I mean, there's no other way around it. Bitcoin has been chosen as the digital store of value, and gold has been chosen as the store of value. So, if you believe that there's going to be abundance, and every day that we get closer to AI agents, that we get through all this stuff, you can disagree with the end result of the way Elon Musk describes abundance, but there's no way to say it's not closer to occurring. There's just no way to say that. Anyone who's used AI, and who's managed people before, I can run a business where I can do a lot of things without needing a person, and I used to need people for almost everything that I did. What you described at the beginning in terms of Grokbot, and being able to have now specialists, when I want to set up a task to do, I just tell my chief of staff, "Go put this together." It doesn't matter what it is. That's why this weekend, one of the things I'm doing for the subscribers is I literally built a prompt for Grokbot, and you're going to be able to do a free trial. I I I don't know when they started it or if they've started it yet, but even if you get rid of your other LLMs for a month, or don't go out to you know, dinner or a game or whatever, a movie, whatever you spend money on. The $200 for Grok Bot for a month to just be able to take the prompt that I gave you and see what it can already do that you can have specialists that are tax people, that are whatever you want. And these little cool little agents sitting there. The problem I think people have is, well, how do I do that? And I'm giving them the thing of all you have to do is put this in, it will do it for you. That's the whole beauty of it. So, I I I don't believe in the debasement side. I just think it's a narrative to give people happiness on this.
44:42 I believe the old system and the new system are merging. One system is based on a cost structure that is zero, the other one is based on friction and humans. And to get those two to merge, there needs to be a narrative and the US dollar or as Druck said, if you're going to manipulate long-term yields or attempt to, that has huge implications for the entire world. You're keeping monetary policy too easy at a time where the normal rate should be, let's say above nominal GDP. Nominal GDP right now is 6% and I think it's understated. So, at 6%, we theoretically should have 10-year yields, let's say at least at 6%.
45:23 We don't have them anywhere there. We're focused on like where are yields relative to inflation. There was a long time ago in the '90s where you go back and look where rates were a heck of a lot higher than they are now when nominal GDP was the same level. So, I just think this debasement thing is a narrative for it. I believe this is about the world's merging and about scarcity becoming something that people want to invest in and abundance is coming to destroy other things.
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46:58 That's simplemining.io/pomp. Go check it out today and see if you should get into the mining game. >> Now, one aspect that I see people talking about online is this idea of AI agents using crypto. I do think that we have talked in the past about this, and one aspect that I keep coming back to is Bitcoin is actually not that great for payments. Maybe for really large payments it could be valuable. Obviously, we now see stablecoins becoming much more popular, and I think that both traditional finance and agents you know potentially could use that.
47:31 But, I see a whole slew of new companies and new projects trying to figure out like what is going to be the money for the agents. Do you have opinions, or have you spent time there? And less on like the framework of agents need, you know, money, and more so on like is it something that already exists in the world, or is it something that is net new that's kind of custom built for the agents? >> Well, at this point my mindset is very simple. Stablecoins are the transaction side. Bitcoin is absolutely collateral. It is a store of value. It is something that as the lending markets grow, as we talk about Coinbase this week, mortgages, like posting Bitcoin for mortgages.
48:13 Again, if you have and you think about what goes into a mortgage, what do they do to determine whether you're a good credit risk? They assume the job you have today is the job you'll have tomorrow. They assume the income you have today is the income you'll have tomorrow. They assume the assets you own will be the assets you have tomorrow. And a lot of those assets and those jobs are illiquid. You couldn't get out of them if you wanted to. So, what is Bitcoin? Well, Bitcoin tells if it's posted and it's collateral, well, you know where you stand real time. There's liquidity. You can get in it. You can get out of it.
48:44 And this is why I think you have to separate what's going to happen from transactions, tokenization will allow everything to go on chain and have value and be able to move at speeds that allow it again to immediately get net worth. And it's not, you know, I've been doing a lot more listening and I do recommend I don't I Have you had Tom Lee on? I'm sure you have. >> of times, yeah, yeah. >> I I think Tom because he worked in traditional finance and has for a long time and thinks that way, and he was at Kidder Peabody, which I have a lot of respect for people I've worked in over the years that started at Kidder Peabody. I I just think when you listen to his thought process on Ethereum and tokenization, when you listen to Vlad at Robinhood, and you really start to spend time on how they envision this happening with tokenization, there's a lot of assets which have no value that are worth money. IP is worth money, but there's no way to transact in it. How do you If you have IP and you want to offer it to someone to buy, how do you do that? That was my original attraction to understanding the value of tokenization, of crypto, of getting rid of the middleman and making sure that if Justin Bieber didn't want to give his money to Scooter Braun by signing a contract with him and giving up 90% of what he would had already created, but being able to keep 80% letting the community have 10 and having it programmable, all of a sudden everything changes. So, I think the answer to your question is I wouldn't overthink this too much. stablecoins have already been chosen as of now as the transaction side, which Bitcoin couldn't do. So, they've replaced what Marc Andreessen wrote in Why Bitcoin Matters.
50:24 Where Bitcoin fits in is it is a chosen store of value. It is the chosen asset that people migrate to when they're worried about disruption from innovation from other things. So, if you don't believe in Ethereum and you believe there'll be a better one in the future, well, I think that's a higher risk than the belief of Bitcoin leaving. Bitcoin has been chosen just like gold was chosen. We saw we've seen how long gold has lasted as the chosen store of value.
50:49 That's why I kind of break these things down for people to think about them differently. >> Now, we have a lot of people who watch this who they like Bitcoin. they hold a lot of Bitcoin. They've held Bitcoin through the euphorias of the highs and the doldrums of the lows. They have been through the roller coaster. They are hardcore believers. You can't shake them from holding Bitcoin. But it does not stop them from pontificating on the single most important question in all of Bitcoin.
51:15 How high is it going to go, Jordy? How high can it go? >> I So, I'm I'm I I've I've learned my lesson after last year believing we'd already be at 250,000 and we're not even close to that. Not to get into direct numbers, but here's what I'll say about Bitcoin in a in a in a in a back-ended way. I do believe the transfer of assets from the traditional fiat system with terminal value now being disrupted by agents. That more and more people are going to increase their holdings in Bitcoin.
51:48 And right now, that is the only place that I believe that you're going to see massive retail, wealth management, pension funds, sovereign wealth funds again. They will be moving money into Bitcoin as a hedge against the other side of the equation, which is let's just say 700 trillion assets first 3 trillion market caper. Let's say four. Let's assume we'll be at four by the time this airs. so at 4 trillion, that number to me has to be 100 trillion in the future.
52:19 That's how much that the financial guardrails matter, and I think Bitcoin, which will stay the most important of that group, let's assume it ends up being 33% of crypto, well then you're talking about 33 trillion, a third of it. Let's go through where it is today at 2 trillionish. So, you can multiply that number by whatever you want, 10 to 15, and you can come up with whatever number you want. It gets you up somewhere at 600,000 or somewhere at 800,000 to a million. So.
52:51 >> So, I am that's a big number, and I think people will be excited to hear you even talk about that number. I'm looking right now for what the Bitcoin percentage of What is the Bitcoin percentage of the total market? And if I just do some rough math real quick, it looks like Bitcoin is somewhere in the ballpark of about 50%.
53:22 I'm looking there's different numbers different places, but it's over 50% actually. All right, total market cap I'm seeing right now is 2.7 trillion, Bitcoin's 1.6. >> Mhm. >> I don't know if Bitcoin goes below 50%. And part of this is like if you actually take out all the things that have no value meaning that, you know, it's like if somebody created some scam coin that has, you know, $50 million market cap but like everyone is convinced it's actually a zero and it's just like bag holders and there's no liquidity. You take all that stuff out Bitcoin may be closer to like 75 80% of the market.
54:04 Right? To have held that big of a percentage of the market for, you know, I don't know, 17 18 years now. I almost go to like the Lindy of like what what would change that all of a sudden Bitcoin be less than 50% of the market? Right? So again, like whether it's 33 or 50 or 70, it almost doesn't matter. It's a It's a big percentage, but I do think that if you're correct and the entire crypto market goes to a hundred trillion Bitcoin may be a bigger percentage of that and would be, you know, obviously a bigger number. So if we use your numbers, that's exciting.
54:42 If it happens to be bigger then it's just like icing on the cake. >> So let me give you my thought on this because So when I gave you the $700 trillion dollars if you go through the breakdown of them stocks is maybe 150 trillion. Okay. So gold is very small. Okay? I believe that Bitcoin should be equatable to kind of the gold plus stock side to some degree. Now, I believe stocks are more representative of innovation, which means that's more in the Ethereums, the Solanas, and the parts that are generating cash flows, generating excitement that people kind of are gambling on, they're betting on, they're going through. Well, store of value is I want to make sure at the end of the day that my house is stable, this is stable. This is where I put my money and that's where the safe investment goes. So I can live with you thinking it'll be above 50. I think for certain the next stage you should see a rapid rise in Ethereum, Solana, and all of the parts that are for the AI agent side. So, I do believe in the end that might be the case.
55:52 But, I'm going to guess if we get to 100 trillion over the next decade and Bitcoin gets to a million over the next decade, okay? I think that'd be fun. >> Yeah, and I but I think I do think the innovation side would have to be driving a lot of the traditional finance and the people that control most of the money. If it were younger people and I asked you the question saying, "My son believes Bitcoin back in 2020 was too boring."
56:20 so, people are in prediction markets. Like, I think you're underestimating how much people like to gamble on things and how Bitcoin becomes a store of value and a safety thing. So, for those and again, I've never sold any Bitcoin. So, I'm sitting in you know, it's not my all Well, actually, it might be because I've been buying more. So, I don't really pay attention to how much it it is of this. I know this, I have more Ethereum than I've ever had.
56:47 and that's because of my belief that I think tokenization and the stablecoin rails, what Stripe is doing, that the agents will bring the hedge fund world in and the hedge fund world needs a narrative and it's very hard the Bitcoin narrative is very hard one to understand. It's much easier for people to understand value accrual, cash flows, things like that, and that's where I think for at least the next three to five years, I just think the ecosystem side is going to is going to benefit more than Bitcoin. That's why I I think the val- the percentage will go down.
57:17 That's my view. >> I'll leave you with this, which is there's a belief in the Bitcoin community that all the speculators, the gamblers, the shitcoiners could all just future Bitcoiners. They don't realize it yet. >> >> We'll leave it at that, but I I To be clear, I actually think and and I've been saying for a while that most of the crypto industry is dead, but I think that Bitcoin, stablecoins, tokenization, and like equity infrastructure is very much real and and going to continue to accrue value. What I recently was on somebody's podcast and they asked me, "Well, what about Hypoliquid?"
57:53 And I said to him, "Look, it's not equity, but I look at it as infrastructure." And so, I think there are some of these like, you know, kind of tokenization, decentralized, token-based things that don't fit perfectly in a bucket, but just like in the traditional world, there's kind of very clear areas where value accrues, there's going to be the same thing in crypto. And so, although people may not be used to me thinking about something like Ethereum, you know, I started out mining Ethereum. I understand, you know, what that value proposition looks like.
58:25 It It is a different thing today, right? It's not GPU-based, it's more proof-of-stake, all that, but I don't know. The market has not put it to zero, and then I think there's data in that. And so, the people who are like everything else is going to zero, you know, doesn't mean that you should change your theory on Bitcoin or or your conviction on Bitcoin, but I do think that when I go talk to all the institutions, they talk about Bitcoin, but they talk about Ethereum and Solana and you know, Hypoliquid and and these other things as well. And so, maybe the world's not as black and white as as the hardcore Bitcoiners want it to be.
59:00 >> Yeah, just always remember one thing, and I I've I've heard Tom Lee say this a few times over the course of last 6 months, and I I happen to agree with it, and it's because we both have worked in Wall Street in banks. there's a value in trust that comes even if the technology's not the best. and that is one of the important points when you're thinking about the guardrails and the transition we're making. Every single bank is talking about tokenization, Every exchange, every place around the world. Japan just said they want to be completely on chain by I think 2030.
59:34 These are massive things that are super important. And when you're dealing with money and you're dealing with people's savings and you're dealing with assets, they care about speed, but what they care more about speed is is trust. This is the reason why we don't have full self-driving and while by now everyone must realize that a full self-driving car is never drunk. A full self-driving car might make mistakes, but human beings makes mistakes every day. But because the government friction will always be there until there's no more governments, the safest thing is to think about the places not that are the best innovation, not that makes the most sense. And that's why I keep migrating back towards the Ethereum Solana thing because right now when I talk to people that I respect in the world that have been business leaders, CEOs of other companies that have moved into crypto, when they talk to me they're mainly talking about what's happening and the things that keep being brought up are Ethereum and Solana no matter where it is. So if I started hearing something else, I'm in there. And I get that people are going to have faster innovations and those will fit a niche and they will go up in value as well. I just think when you're thinking about the framework, you have to think about what the mag seven has done. There's not just seven companies in the S&P 500. There's 493 other ones that are not as successful as those seven.
60:51 I think you got to start thinking of concentration within side the crypto world for everyone there. The whole ecosystem will go up, but I do think this is going to be the same situation where the trust for merging is going to be very important to the final decision, not the best innovation. >> Makes makes sense to me. All right, what what are you going to cover in your video this week? Anyone who is watching this right now, I never say pause, but you should pause this. You should go to Jordi Visser on YouTube, hit the subscribe button. Help help our guy out here. He works hard for you, you know. It's like a nice thing you could do for him, maybe for his birthday.
61:21 >> first of all, the company that I've used in my videos for a while, is going to be shutting down OpenBB. And so, I've had to make a quick pivot to Google Slides. So, there's going to be a different, presentation, but I a lot of the stuff we've talked about, I'm going to go more details. I am, like I said, Rockbot and Solana and Ethereum, but also, in terms of the Bitcoin move, the Druckenmiller thing, the Nvidia earnings, all of that stuff.
61:49 But, the main thing I want to just make sure people realize, if you listen to this, what I do on the weekend, and before Anthony and I agreed to do this, one of the things he asked, are are we going to can we do this on a Saturday and then release you on a Sunday, or is there going to be too much overlap? The way, and I think we've we've learned this, the way that I approach things is very different. I I try to tell a story with data-driven stuff, so you guys can go do your own research. It's supposed to be educational, less conversational. Here, we're just speaking our minds. I don't have a script, I don't have anything.
62:21 The only thing we do is say, "These four topics seem interesting to me. Bring whatever else you want to bring." And we go whatever direction. I have it a little bit more organized for myself to be able to give you guys a story that connects all of these pieces together in one, almost like a mini book. So, if you haven't seen it, go see it, but I'll be covering all of those things. I think it's the most important time for understanding. Number one, the AI trade has reached a different level where people are crowded into it.
62:46 Number two, everyone's looking for what the next three and five bagger can be, and they're running out of places to go find it. And so, what you're left with at this point, in my opinion, is if AI agents are the major theme, which they've been all year, but now the infrastructure side has been overbuilt, and everyone knows it. I fully believe a year from now people will look back and wish they had paid attention to crypto at this stage. So, I do think it's going to hold lows. I think it's continuing to build a bottom here.
63:11 I think if it does go, it's going to go fast, and I'm going to cover it. >> I love it. I love it. I think you're doing a great job. But you may not be scripted. Obviously, I'm scripted. >> That's nice. >> As people in the comments they were like, "Oh, you know, he's a fan. He he's scripted." All right. We'll talk again next week. Next week in person. Let's go. >> In person.