MSTR Stock: Up 30%! Will This Continue? Long Way to Go, BTC 77k, STRC Climbs + Big Macro Week Ahead!

0:00 Hello everybody. So after about three months of despair, we finally have MSDR stock winning. A big win because in a matter of three days, the stock was up 30%. And of course, it was a surprise to many of us. you know, we never know when these things pop. We never know when these things happen. We could have had to wait another month or it could have been a month earlier. And the bigger question to me is what is next?

0:28 What is coming next? So I'll talk about it first. U but first finally some move on MSTR. We we we we've had the longest value of despair really in in Bitcoin and and and in the stock you know arguably this felt this one felt really really long in the stock. Arguably maybe in the earlier days of MSTR we had similar values of despair but this one felt particularly long and the FUD was particularly awful because of course MSTR is a well-known stock now. But here's the thing. We still have a lot to go. The stock still has to go up a lot because if you look at the 50week high, the 52- week high, it was $365 over the past 52 week. And so we are trading right now at 119. After hours 120. So 120. The low was was 82. We're at 120. and the high the past 12 months was 365. So you can see if we are running again in strategy, if if the run is starting again, we have a long long way to go. And in the grand scheme of things, this is not that big of a bump.

1:38 This is good, but this is not that big of a bump. We'll still we'll we'll still take the win though. We'll still celebrate. I want to point out a very important fact that the stock actually today is is just as cheap, if not cheaper. it is actually much cheaper than when the stock was was trading at the same levels on on June 5th because the MNAV as as as compressed. So if you go back on on on on June 5, 2026, the price of Bitcoin on June 5, 2026 was $61,000 at close and the price of strategy on June 5, 2026 was $120. So we at $120 when the price was $61,000 and now we're at $120, but the price of Bitcoin is $77,000.

2:30 So what has changed? What has changed in the is the compression in the mnav. The mnav has greatly compressed. And I think part of the story of the stock now is going to be the mnav going back up. The mnav going back up to a 1.2 because the mnav right now is stuck as like at like a a 1.0. 01 or 1.02 something like that very very small. So much of the expansion of MSDR stock price now should come from MNAV expansion. In other words, even if Bitcoin were to stay at 77,000, let's say we stay at we we stay between 75 and 80, let's say, for two months, MSTR stock could still go up because the MNAV could expand. and and and and and you know a proper price for bit a proper price for MSTR with Bitcoin at at at 75K or 80K is probably higher than that because we we we probably get back some of that premium some of that MNAF premium as a lot of the FUD goes away as perhaps a little bit of the greed comes back. So point number one is this, right? The the Bitcoin price spiking is still barely reflecting in the stock. You can still barely barely see it in the stock. We only erased the deepest part of the despair. And Bitcoin is holding pretty well right now at 77.

3:55 I mean, we had a little bit of dip in the morning, but it's holding pretty well at 77. That is a that is a very impressive hold of the price of Bitcoin. I'd be interested tonight, right, Sunday night. I'd be interested to see if Bitcoin is going to drop when the futures open open. You may remember there was a very long period when when when Bitcoin would always drop a few thousand when the futures open. I'm curious about this. Now, here's to what I don't like. What I don't like about the price of Bitcoin right now is the sentiment. If you look at the sentiment, yeah, this is it. Like this is the the biggest spike between between fear and and extreme. We are almost at extreme greed. Not quite but almost between fear and greed.

4:40 That spike is is the biggest quickest bump. Like it's the quickest change between fear and greed that we've seen in history. And if you look at all all of the all of the other spikes, it's never it's never been that quick. Like like usually we take a breather. Usually when we spike between fear and greed, we take a little bit of a breather or or we air on the side a little bit. This has not happened. So the fact that we move to greed so fast is is is a little little concerning, I guess. I guess it gives me a little pause. I'm I'm very happy about this spike, but the price of Bitcoin could stay in this $77,000, you know, between $75 and $80 range for a little while. Could. But again, nobody can predict Bitcoin and certainly not me. I certainly can't predict where Bitcoin is going. All I know, and this is what I've always said, when Bitcoin recovers, which it clearly has, MSTR recovers, which it clearly has. So, the correlation is intact. Very, very much intact. So, let's talk about tomorrow.

5:43 What could be going on tomorrow? could be an announcement, of course, that he did a lot of ATM. You see it in the charts. He likely did a lot of ATM. So, that announcement is coming. issued a lot of MSTR common. The reason for the vendor performance has a lot to do with him issuing the MSTR common. Now, why is he issuing the MSTR common? He's issuing the MSTR common to stack cash. And so, hopefully the cash reserve is now $5 billion and we stop at 5 billion. It's a it's a nice round even number. Hopefully, we stop there. And then perhaps it is it did two things, but I hope he didn't do it. Perhaps he did two things. Perhaps he did some stretch buybacks and and I kind of hope he didn't do that. You know, I would like to see stretch go back up without a buyback. So, I'm hoping he didn't ATM the common to buy back stretch. Hoping not. I don't know. I can't know. And then some people in the comment section were telling me, "Oh, he could have bought Bitcoin." Same thing. I hope he didn't buy Bitcoin because he sold Bitcoin in in the in the low60s. So, I hope he didn't buy Bitcoin. more more importantly, the most important thing of of all of these points is that I hope that he did nothing, but he he likely did ATM. We we it's kind of forgiven that he probably he did ATM, but I I hope that he he does nothing. You know, I'm perfectly fine if Sailor does nothing for the next 3 months. Like, let's just wait. Or if you do something, do something very very small. Now, the size of the ATM this this this past week probably was was big, unfortunately. And so, just do nothing. say, "Lord, that's what I wish he did." But, you know, I'm I'm just a shareholder, so what what do I know, right? I wish he did nothing.

7:17 And I think I'm not the only one noticing that and saying that. Anyways, if you look at the tweets, again, we we we have no dots. So, maybe he's done with the DOT tweets. and but last last week, we had no dots, but we had some action. So, now he seems to be doing moves on the stock without signaling on a Sunday morning. So, whatever. Doesn't change much. so I guess now we have to read into the videos what he's doing. and the videos are very clear. It's it's it's about, you know, Bitcoin is for everyone. Of course, he's always said that. but he's linked that video with with the the tweet from the day before about, of course, digital credit. And the idea that that not everybody can handle the volatility. Of course, everybody's happy with 20% up in 3 days. but you know whenever it's 20% down in 3 days everybody freaks out and it's the end of the world and so because not a lot of people can handle the volatility he created digital credit and it's true that you know stretch over that same period of insane volatility stretched move you know was it a dollar a little less than a dollar stretched moved moved a little less than a dollar so 1% volatility when Bitcoin moved 20% stretched moved like 1% so That's why he created he created that. And then he also tweeted another one about if you can't handle the G's, you shouldn't handle Bitcoin if you if you can't handle the G's. And of course with STRC well besides when it dipped during the FUD storm two months ago with STRC at least the past month, we haven't had that many G's. There hasn't it hasn't moved nearly nearly as much as as Bitcoin. and you know him emphasizing that the instruments was was created for this very reason that that but you know it it hasn't moved nearly as much as Bitcoin and that's how it was designed and and you know that's not the case of strategy and that's clearly not the case of Bitcoin even though strategy lately has been moving roughly in line with Bitcoin maybe 1.1 times Bitcoin not as high as the 1.5 times Bitcoin that we used to get my guess is that we're going to get back to that at some point the correlation is going to get back to that at some point when the ATM stops. The correlation is going to get back to that at some point. At least that would be my guess. I have no idea where Bitcoin is headed shortterm. I have no idea where strategy is headed shortterm.

9:35 Here's what all I know is that the volatility has been absolutely insane in this market. And you know, if if you look at the way Bitcoin spiked, of course, you can see it here a little bit in the strategy chart. The way bit Bitcoin spike spiked was just violent and insane and and it came out of nowhere. And so what that tells me is that the volatility continues to be extreme. and therefore volatility is going to continue next week. And so so there's a few things next week that could give us a discount on on various stocks and and on Bitcoin related stocks and perhaps on Bitcoin. A few things this week. first of all over the weekend we had the price hike from Nvidia by 15%. that could trigger a rotation back into AI, could trigger a rotation back into stocks like Nvidia, back into memory stocks, right? because a lot of that increase has to do with memory stocks. So the fact that the prices are are hiking means that there's there's there's a lot a lot of of of power, right? Pricing power.

10:32 Nvidia has a lot of pricing power. AI folks have a lot of pricing power. That could be seen as bullish for AI in the market. And of course, we know capital between AI and Bitcoin. There's kind of a competition. So maybe some of that capital, maybe people some some take some quick gains on Bitcoin and move back to AI. And then we have again AI. This is big AI week coming up. We have a big Nvidia earnings on Wednesday night.

10:53 you know, my guess is that the market will be in in a waiting pattern until the most important stock in the world, quite frankly, reports on Wednesday night. and then we have we have it's not Powell, it's War, of course, I don't it's old for someone who was there way too long. Anyways, the war speech. We have the war speech at 10 a.m. on Friday. Again, that's that's something that that makes the market fearful. Remember what happened in 2022 in that speech. that speech always has the ability to to tank everything and so the market is a little worried about that. and usually but you know nothing has behaved like the usual for the past year but usually after a big spike like this we get a mean reversion.

11:33 I'm not I'm I'm not so sure we will. We'll see. but then again like I said and the reason why we may not get that mean reversion is because what Scott Bessent did on on Wednesday and ch Tuesday evening is when when when he said that what he did was a was really big deal. The announcement that they are buying back the long-term bonds the long-term treasuries doubling the buyback from 2 billion to 4 billion. That's a really really big deal because that means the US is just digging deficits over the short o over the short term, right? Cre creating short-term treasuries, issuing short-term debt to buy back the long-term debt. and you know, he hinted in an interview that it could be more, right? So, so you know, in two weeks, are we getting another press conference where he says, "Oh, we're moving it for from from 4 billion to 8 billion." That thing becomes very very significant. they don't want the 10-year to go past 470, it seems. And they'll do everything to defend it past 470 let alone five.

12:30 They don't even want to let it run near five. And so that means that if if there's treasury interventions to drop the 10 year and the 10 year maybe goes back to I don't know 4.2% or we can dream and say even more even less than 4%. then that would be extremely bullish for Bitcoin and extremely bullish for risk assets and extremely bullish for stretch because stretch always always trades the yield always has to have a premium over the risk-free rate which is the treasury's yield right so so this is a pretty big deal anyways this was not investment advice this is not financial advice this is only entertainment I'm hoping you were entertained please like please subscribe follow me on Patreon follow me on X thank you for watching and have a wonderful wonderful Okay.