Bitcoin Social Interest: Dozens of us Left

0:01 Hey everyone, and thanks for dropping back into the cryptoverse. Today, we're going to talk about Bitcoin, and we're going to be discussing the social risk. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and also check out the sale on Into the Cryptoverse Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. If you didn't get a chance to check out the recent Bitcoin cycle memo that we published in July, I would encourage you to go take a look at that, as I think it does a good job of tying all the pieces together, and it's absolutely free to read if you're curious about where I think we are within the cycles, and you'd prefer to read something rather than hear me just talk about it. So, go read that if you are in fact interested.

0:47 Bitcoin right now is trading for around $64,000, but there is still this sense of like apathy in the air. Like, even if Bitcoin does go up a little bit more, I I still feel like there's this this sense of apathy, and when you look at at the social interest, you can see it was about 0.25. Now, the last bear market in July, social interest was actually about double what it is right now. It was actually closer to like 0.5, whereas in 2018, it was actually closer to 0.25, where we are at this current time. And what's fascinating is the social interest is about the same, and then the market structure is about the same as it was in 2018, right? Finding support at 60k in 2026, finding support at 6k in 2018. Bitcoin putting in a low in February of 2018, and then sweeping that low in late June. Same thing in 2026, low in February, sweeping that low in like late June, early July. You got your lower highs in in May, and your higher lows in late March, early April. It's all basically the same thing. And when you look at the social interest, it's also very very similar.

1:57 So, I would continue to say, "Look, until proven otherwise, this is what's happening." And frankly, there are dozens of us left at this point. Because when you think about the social risk being this low, we can go through like the different constituents of it. It's made up of Google Trends, the relative ranking of the Coinbase app, YouTube subscribers, YouTube views, followers to various analysts on X that talk about Bitcoin and crypto and exchanges and layer ones. So, one of those is YouTube views. And you can see that in our heyday, we were averaging 3 to 4 million views a day, not just my channel, but all these channels that you see listed down here. And today, they're only averaging around 358,000 views a day. So, they've literally dropped an order of magnitude over the last 5 years.

2:45 Okay? And that drop also helps explain why when you look at charts like the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, that's also been going down since 2021. So, it all makes sense when you think about it. Like social interest has been drying out since 2021. And the advanced decline index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies has been going down. You might say, "Well, what about the bull market?" Yeah, we had a bull market for Bitcoin, but a lot of altcoins didn't have a bull market. In fact, a lot of altcoins just continued to go down. And it was just a few altcoins that went up that that kind of lifted the total market cap of of the altcoin space, but a lot of them did not even put in new all-time highs. And now, a lot of those altcoins are actually below their 2022 lows rather than trading near their 2021 highs.

3:34 So, it it really is interesting to see the divergence. And when you look at Bitcoin dominance excluding stables, it is still relatively elevated, you know? And and honestly, continues to kind of go up. I know if you look at it including stables, it looks like it's dropping, but when you exclude stables, dominance, you know, dominance has still been generally trending higher, and it's just because there's not a lot of people left in the space right now. So, YouTube views is one. You can also look at YouTube subscribers to those same crypto and or Bitcoin YouTube channels and see they're averaging around 285 new subscribers a day across all of these channels. Compare that to 2021, and they were averaging 50 to 60,000 a day at the heights.

4:20 Again, 50 to 60,000 a day versus 300 a day. You can kind of understand why there's the why Bitcoin dominance has been going up, why the advanced kind of index of the top 100 cryptocurrencies has been going down. You can understand all of it, right? In terms of like what went wrong and why there was no rotation into alts. How can you have a rotation into alts if no one's here, you know? So, look at the social interest. You can also look at followers to various and you can say, "Well, what if it's just YouTube specific? What if they change change something?" And but no, it's across platforms. If you look at followers to various analysts on X, you can see they're averaging around 4,000 new followers a day, but in 2021, they were averaging over 100,000 a day. So, we're at 1/20th of that level back then.

5:13 If you look at, say, followers to various layer ones, you know, over the last several years, you'll also see they're averaging around 8,000 new followers per day, whereas in 2021, they were averaging between, say, at the heights over 100,000 a day. So, less than 10% of what it was at the height. And then, of course, you can also look at various sentiment metrics. We can look at Google Trends, like search interest. I think that's an interesting one. And you can see that it really never got going this cycle, right? Like it it it honestly just hasn't been what I think a lot of people thought it was going to be.

5:54 So, that's your your social your social stuff. You can also look at at some of the different sentiment metrics. if you look at the sentiment metrics for crypto asset weighted sentiment, it's been generally trending down since 2021. and then you can also look at Wikipedia page views. If If anyone's into that kind of thing, I mean, I'm not going to to Wikipedia to to learn about Bitcoin, but some people are, right? And in 2017 they did, and in 2021 they did, and they didn't really do that this cycle.

6:27 So, again, clearly a major difference between this cycle and and the last two. So, frankly, there are dozens of us left at this point. Dozens. And my guess is the social interest will continue to go down before it goes back up. I'm hoping to see it maybe bottom a little bit later this year, perhaps early next year. It seems like we might be getting to some pretty low levels. I'd like to think that after you have two bear markets, you could hopefully start to see it trend back up without that euphoric rally. Hopefully we do get a euphoric rally next cycle, but we're obviously too early to know that right now. But let's see Let's see if this if it can actually form a low sometime in the next 6-12 months. And as I said, there's dozens of us left, and those dozens of us may be more than a few dozen, but are hopefully going to the first ITC conference, right? So, we are having the first ITC conference later this year in November. So, I hope to see the remaining dozens of people there, and we can talk about the markets, and and talk about what are the expectations going into the pre-halving year.

7:34 Thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure you subscribe. I'll see you guys next time. Bye.