Transcript
0:00 Hello and welcome to How to Invest. In today's video, we're going to be talking about Tesla. They finally reported their full year 2025 uh earnings. So, we're going to be looking at those numbers as well as uh I've revised the modeling for them in our bare base and bull case. So, we're going to talk through the revision to the modeling that I've done. Um and then I'm going to talk about one last thing that came up in a interview with Elon Musk. um talking about one of the other companies that we're really really bullish on here at How to Invest. So, I'm going to just mention that briefly at the end. A little bit about me, I am a stock analyst for a holding company with over 10 million of assets under management as well as my own personal $150,000 portfolio. Just so you guys know, we are not certified financial advisors. This video is not financial advice. All investments carry risk. You are solely responsible for your investments. We encourage everyone to do their own due diligence and research. We have a high risk tolerance and a long investment horizon. This video reflects our opinions only at the time of recording and are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Starting with Tesla, it's currently a $1.3 trillion market cap. Um the assets and liabilities for full year 25 are there on the screen. Now, um revenue still pretty much flat um over the last year.
1:25 Um, but this is really good because now this gives us a good basis to model um, the next 5 10 years is what we're going to be mostly focusing on in this video. Um, but yeah, margins and stuff still not looking great. Gross margin very low. Net profit margin super super low. Um, this is again really really not about the the history of this company is not why you invest in this um or like like looking at the trailing metrics. I I mean more so, right? If you're just looking at the trailing metrics like you should not invest in this company, it's really the story going forward why people are still in this company in this stock, you know, buying it up. We're or a little bit off highs. I think the high was around 500. Um the the share price currently trading around 415. So a bit off all-time highs, but the multiples are still incredibly high. Very high price to sales, very high price to earnings. So, if you're just looking at those trailing metrics, Tesla does not make sense as an investment at all, but the market is forward-looking. Um, some more so than others. Wall Street's not very forward-looking, but you know, us retailer retail traders, we get to be much more forward-looking. So, the it's really important to actually model out what the story looks like into the future. Um and that will be the main focus of today is uh looking at you know the forward modeling because again if you look at these trailing metrics and then you look at the market cap a lot of it just doesn't really make sense for trading you know over 10 times sales um earnings are you know 3.4 billion so we're really high PE on the company um it's not like it's spitting off insane amounts of operating or free cash flow like none of these trailing metrics look that good. So the real story is the forward uh the the what's to come for Tesla. So we've revised the modeling because the modeling was not very good um in our spreadsheet at all. But I think we were not giving enough credit to Tesla. So we've gone through we've given a ton more credit to Tesla where they where we think they're due the credit for the future story. Um, and then we're going to look how that still compares to other opportunities that we see uh around us in the stock market currently. So, we revised the bare case up a ton and I I kind of based the the the bare case off of kind of analyst consensus. So, you can easily find analyst consensus revenue growth for the current year and next year on Yahoo Finance. So, I just took that 24% revenue growth for this year and I put that in u for the one year. And then I took the 2027 uh revenue growth consensus of 36% and I put that in our two-year. So this would represent 2026 and 2027. And then I just did a a very slow de acceleration in revenue growth from you know 2026 to 2030. And a lot of this revenue growth um how are they going to achieve this right? Uh and I think it's pretty obvious to most people like even the analysts are seeing this. They're they're also projecting this acceleration in revenue growth for Tesla and that is primarily from the robo taxi rollout. Now it may not be as uh like linear as this is kind of modeling, right? So analysts are saying 24 this year, 36 next year. Um it could still be zero this year. You know they we could still have a relatively flat year on revenue growth. But what this modeling is really trying to get is you know what in 5 years could the stock price look like and most likely somewhere between um today and 2030 you will have a very very massive roll out of robo taxi. So it may not look as kind of smooth as we have it modeled here, but you know you could have in 2028 for example maybe a you know 500% growth in revenue if that is particularly a massive year for robo taxi roll out. Now obviously the bullcase isn't isn't modeling that but you know that is the kind of uh like uh moment binary moment that might actually happen for Tesla. So, if you're going to buy and hold the stock, don't think that the thesis is necessarily defeated just because they grow, you know, two, five, 10% in 2026 because what that most likely means is that maybe in 2028 they're going to grow revenue by 100%.
5:46 And then you get somewhere back around to where our kind of more smooth modeling and revenue growth is at. So, you can think of this more of like an average revenue growth because it's not going to be maybe exactly linear like this. This isn't exactly linear, but it's not going to be like so smooth as we have modeled here. But the idea is, you know, you get to about 337 billion dollars in revenue uh by 2030 and then again, you have a continuously uh slowing revenue growth. And this isn't because they aren't continuing to sell more. It's because you're getting a little bit of a large law of large numbers, right? So, I expect Robo Taxi to ski uh to kind of do an S-curve. Um, so you'll get an S-curve in robo taxi rollouts where, uh, you know, we're kind of right at the beginning of the S-curve. There's maybe 100, 200 robo taxis currently. Um, we're going to go into this exponential growth for robo taxis. Um, where it's going to go all across the US. It's going to roll out in maybe China, in maybe India, across Europe. Um, that's going to be the steepest part of the S-curve. And then you're going to maybe have a slow taper off where you get to all the fringes.
6:50 So, you know, maybe a couple of other small countries that kind of trailed behind regulatory, so Tesla couldn't implement robo taxis there. Um, and then you kind of get the growth for robo taxis back to the organic growth in demand for, you know, rides, transportation, that kind of thing, right? Because we're disrupting the market here. You know, the demand for transportation is pretty much fully grown out, right? So, it's just organically growing maybe somewhere in the low, you know, single digits, I would imagine. And I don't know the number off the top of my head, but what's happening is those rides are going to switch from, you know, personally owned private vehicles to robo taxis. Um, so robo taxis are going to eat the traditional transportation system. That's where the growth curve as adoption happens and then it kind of levels out back to the organic growth rate of people's, you know, normal demand for rides. I do think that um it's going to accelerate the or organic uh growth and drive like transportation a little bit, right? So, if it becomes cheaper to, you know, get your groceries delivered to your house, it becomes cheaper to, you know, take a a taxi going out at night u versus taking public transportation. Some people are going to switch their mode share, um they're going to order, uh Uber Eats more often or or the Tesla equivalent of Uber Eats more often. So you might see, you know, if there's, you know, 20, you know, billion rides annually in the United States currently, um, and that's growing at 5%, you might see like a one-time jump up like a 50% growth to, you know, 30 billion annually, uh, rides annually in the United States. As those add as the price comes down, people demand more of that. And that's again kind of a one-time shift. Um, that will happen and that will also kind of be the main part of the Scurve. So, um, yeah, and that S-curve could happen, you know, over 2 years, it could happen over 5 years. So, this is again not going to be perfectly descriptive. It's just going to be hopefully directionally correct um for, you know, our modeling. So, it's it is a little bit difficult to model, you know, but this is our best attempt at modeling that. So, um, yeah, and then kind of, you know, de accelerating to about 20% growth, um, after the robo taxi scurve, um, Tesla does have another scurve coming after that, which are Optimus robots. So, definitely don't forget about that. U, the reason that the revenue is still decelerating in our kind of bare case, I mean, this is still an incredible execution. A company with a hundred billion dollars in revenue growing to almost $900 billion in revenue in 10 years. That's almost 10xing your revenue in 10 years. That is still incredible execution, incredible value creation for the world. Um but yeah, this is still very very difficult.
9:39 Um and you'll see how that kind of uh results in the market cap because uh in this base case or or bare case I should say um Elon does not actually achieve his uh comp package completely. So his goal is to get uh Tesla to a $ 8.5 trillion market cap by 2035. Um we'll see the market cap here in a second. Uh it does not get there yet. So in this base case or bare case, sorry I keep saying base case. in this bare case, even with these incredible revenue growth numbers, which um I still think are maybe on the more conservative side because I do think the base case is the most like most likely and this is the bare case. Um even with these incredible numbers growing, you know, growing 100 billion by 36% is is absolutely incredible and I think we may see even a more incredible growth rate percentage in one year than this, right? like I mentioned before. But yeah, with this, we'll go over to what the market cap, well, we'll go over the the the profit.
10:34 So, profit margin in one year. They're currently at 4%. So, I actually should make this 5% because it should improve um over the next year. They are going to have a ton of capex, right? They're they're doing all this R&D research. Um they may not actually be making much money on robo taxis depending on how many people they have to hire to sit in them as safety drivers. I know they're already rolling out some robo taxis that don't have anybody in the car. So, you know, we could see more um net margin expansion than this in the one-year. Um but this again is the bare case. You're trying to be super conservative. Um but yeah, talking about getting to 10% and then 18% in the 10ear and that's the net profit margin. Um and then having some conservative PE multiples on here. Um this is again somewhere around the Graham kind of PE multiple where you do two times growth rate plus 8 um you know two times average growth rate over the next 10 years. So still very high, right? Because these pees are are pretty high. Um and that is because we are expecting Tesla to grow at a pretty insane clip. So um yeah, these are these are very respectable pees. They're not typical bare pees, right? Bare pees typically are are a bit lower than that, but you know, if a company even in this bare case, they're going to be growing uh very well. So they do do deserve a much higher PE than what you would think of normally for a kind of company like this. Okay. So what does that mean for the market cap? Now remember the market cap currently is 1.3 trillion. The barecase market cap in one year is 300 billion. So um in the bare case if this is actually what they're going to do um it is they are definitely pulling a lot of that expected growth forward into the current evaluation. Right? This is saying the company should be reth about $1 trillion less right now which is pretty insane. um but in the 5year they do actually you know get to the point where they deserve the market cap that they currently are at right so um in the bare case you're basically saying all of the next 5 years of growth is already baked into the evaluation so obviously if this is the scenario that happens it means it's not a very good investment currently um but yeah here's the 10-year so Elon's stock compensation um basically the goal is to get to a $ 8.5 trillion market cap In our bare case, uh this is still incredible execution. If he did this, the world will still be dramatically changed, but that is about a $5 trillion market cap in 10 years.
13:03 And then in 20 years, that is an $18.6 trillion market cap. Now, this still means if you buy it today and hold it for the next 20 years, you're going to have an incredible return, far better than, you know, the S&P 500 or anything like that. um if the bare scenario kind of plays out. But uh yeah, this is still not comparable to a lot of the other companies, but again, we're going to compare them at the end. So, let's move on to the base case. Um so, in the one-year, um we're saying they're going to be doing slightly better than analysts expect in the in 2026 and in 2027. Again, this is very smooth growth.
13:44 This is more of an averaged out growth. you could see a much lower growth in the short term, a very steep acceleration in growth over one or two years only and then uh kind of the flattening out of the S-curve as robo taxis depending how fast they roll out robo taxis, right? So um basically 30% in 2026 and then 40% average growth from uh 2027 to 2030 and that will give us $473 billion in revenue. Now how can we achieve that? This is kind of the breakdown here of how that is achieved.
14:17 So they are currently producing something like uh 3 million cars a year currently is my my understanding. That number could be off maybe a lot off but the important thing is it is very realistic to them to potentially be uh you know potentially have 10 million robo taxis by 2030. Right? So they'll definitely be able to produce this many robo taxis. I think it's well in in the right ballpark, right? Right order of magnitude as Elon likes to say of the amount of robo taxis that they could potentially have in 5 years from now.
14:50 Now, if each robo taxi is making 40,000 a year in revenue, um again, that could be higher, that could be lower. We're just really trying to ballpark it here. Um that is $400 billion in revenue just from robo taxis. Now, in the scenario, I do think that you can't really bank on that much uh revenue from current car sales. Um the idea is that this is kind of cannibalizing their current car sales business. Um you know, if the the cost of getting a a robo taxi is far less than the cost of ownership, you know, the demand for cars is going to drop up a cliff. That's what I'm saying. Like you the demand isn't for vehicles. The ultimate demand is to get from point A to point B, right? So if robo taxis become the cheapest way to get from point A to point B now you're going to see a lot of drop in demand for vehicles in general. So I'm not giving much credence to their car sales in this scenario. Um and that has been declining. Um over the last couple years they're slash they're stopping the X and S production. Um so I think if you continue that trend forward potentially even by 2030 they're no longer making the Model Y or the Model 3. they're just pumping out robo taxis, right? So, um I I think that's completely fine, right?
16:06 Because it completely replaces and far surpasses the revenue they get from car sales currently. Now, uh I think energy will get to 39 billionish and that's assuming that it continues to grow at a 25% kagger over the next 5 years, which is actually a bit lower than its historical average kager. Um and then uh just 1 million robots per year selling at 30k each, which is going to be about 30 billion. So this 20 2030 we're just starting to see the beginning of the S-curve for robots. Um and so that gives you around the you know this 473 billion in revenue in 5 years. So that's kind of how it's made up of mostly robo taxis.
16:46 You're starting to see a little bit of you know revenue from robots and then still a decent amount of revenue from energy but robots looking like it's quickly going to surpass energy. So and you know these things could be way different. Maybe energy doesn't grow at 25% it grows at 40% keer. Um maybe robots they're they're doing 500,000 robots by 2030. Maybe they're doing two three million robots by 2030. Uh it's really really hard to know these things, right? So we're just trying to get a directional idea of what it could look like. Um and then in the 10ear um energy uh continues to grow at that 25% kagger which means it represents $120 billion in revenue by 2035. um and robo taxis 3x um from that 2030 to 2035 in the amount of revenue. So robo taxis are now making $1.2 trillion in revenue which would be absolutely uh insane. Robots 10x production from 1 million to 10 million per year. Um and this don't represent recurring revenue, right? Um this is representing um uh sale of these robots. Um and that would be 300 billion. Now this 1.2 2 trillion could be really small, right? Because if they have 10 million robo taxis, basically this is kind of estimating that you have 30 million robo taxis.
18:04 Well, maybe the amount of robo taxis uh in 2035 isn't 30 million, it's 100 million across the whole world. You could see this revenue number way higher. Um but you know, we're expecting you know, go from 10 million in 5 years, you build another 20 million robo taxis and then following five years after that kind of and they're all still making that 40,000 a year. So okay um and then yeah robbo rob robots 10x 10 million a year 300 billion from robots um yeah that's total 1 uh 62 trillion and then you maybe have 25 billion in other revenue service revenue those kind of things right again this is ballpark so um there's a little bit there's a lot of margin of error right we're trying to get directionally correct um now let's look at our base case margins 7% so improving from the 4% currently um and and then almost tripling over the next four years to 15% um and increasing again uh to 25% and 30% in the 20 year.
19:03 Now why do we think this is is possible? Uh these robo taxis they are producing themselves, right? So they are basically getting these robo taxis at cost. Um so we think the robo taxi network could almost have you know 70% or greater gross margin. Um very very realistic per year, right? And that's almost if you're, you know, they're saying the Grobo taxi has like one year usable life. So it could be much much higher. So anyways, their gross margin is going to improve dramatically, right? Cuz this 25% in 10 years is higher than their current gross margin. So we're going to see insane gross margin expansion um very very healthy net margin expansion um as they switch to the robo taxi business model. Um, and they're not just making their, you know, 20% gross per car they sell, you know, they're building the the the taxi and they're making almost the entire value of the taxi back every single year it's in operation. Um, so yeah, it's a big question mark about how long these robo taxis will last, right? Because if they last 3 years, you have to, you know, depreciate the value of the taxi over the 3 years. So if let's say uh it it runs for three years and it's almost running all the time that's why it's not being you know a typical car now you can drive for five t years um but if it's running all the time because it's doing way way more trips it's always being used by someone you have a $30,000 robo taxi it works for three years that's 10,000 of expense per year it's making 40,000 so you have about a 75% gross margin there right so that's how we're getting to the 70% gross margin kind of thinking about it um and again a lot of this is just kind of our best guess again it's just really supposed to be directional what it could look like.
20:42 Now, if they get to that 25% net margin in 10 years, what will that mean to the market cap? That will mean Elon absolutely smashed his comp package targets. Uh almost double the 8.5 trillion to 16 trillion. Uh we should look at pees real quickly actually. Um again, yeah, really high PE. They'll be growing incredibly fast, right? 40% um from you know now to uh 2030. So you double that, you add eight, you get around an 80 market uh 80 PE um and then kind of declining to 40. You're assuming they'll be growing at 15% from 2035 to 2045. You double that, you get about a 40 PE. Um so with a 40 PE um continuing to grow about 15% a year going forward, uh you have a $16 trillion market cap, right? So, uh, we think in the base case, not only does Elon most likely, uh, meet the goals of his comp package, he actually surpasses them by a decent amount. Um, and we'll see what again what that means and how that compares to the other things. But lastly, let's just quickly go over the bull case. Now, in the bull case, I think to really make see this kind of uh growth happen, this is 45% on average over the next 5 years and then 35% on average for the next 5 years after that. Um, I think in this scenario you see SpaceX, XAI, and Tesla kind of merge into one entity. Um, I think that is kind of the the scenario where the bullcase becomes a lot more likely. Um, I would love to see that.
22:18 Uh, but yeah, no, I I think if they did, again, this is an average, so I I really don't actually think they're going to grow 45% this next year in 2026 or this year in 2026. Again, this is going to be an average growth rate. uh it's going to be maybe one or two or three years where you just see insane revenue growth from the scurve of the robo taxi roll out and then sometime between 2030 and 2035 you're going to see another crazy scurve of the robot roll out and that scurve may go for a lot longer way past 2035 maybe all the way to 2045 where you're talking about Elon talking about how we're going to have more humanoids than robots maybe 10 times as many humanoids as robots so it really is a question mark about how big demand for humanoids is that scurve could could continue for you know years and maybe even decades.
23:05 So um yeah that's the bullcase modeling. Um in the bullcase we have them getting to 15%. So this does kind of model them rolling out quite a bit of robo taxi this year and starting to see that drop to the bottom line of the robo taxi rollout. Um but again we don't really pay too much attention to the one-year. We care way more about the 5-year. And in the 5year, you're really seeing the robo taxi uh gross margin affecting the net margin of the company. Um and then yeah, finally getting to 40% net margin in 20 years. And that's just going to be from, you know, robo taxi. It's going to be from their energy sales. It's going to be from uh just the mass roll out of robots. Again, this is the bull case, so it's supposed to be bullish. I don't think necessarily they'll get to 40% net margins. very few companies get to 40% net margins and mostly they are software companies not hardware companies but um it's fun to be bullish and to put some crazy numbers in there in your bullcase sometimes um but yeah you know who knows maybe if um you have that integration with XAI and they're making a lot of uh revenue from maybe like a subscription service for the intelligence in the robots you could see that affect the net margin a lot more positively again remember in this bull case scenario I'm picturing Tesla and XAI and SpaceX one being being one massive company.
24:24 Okay, so for uh pees, these are the bull pees. Again, same way with Graham um kind of 2x average revenue growth and then plus eight. Um so what does that mean for the bullcase market cap? This would be absolutely in insane, but would be I know I would love to see it. I don't currently own any Tesla stocks, but I would definitely feel feel super left out if this is the scenario that does happen. Um, one year, $2 trillion market cap, which represents pretty decent upside from here. um him reaching pretty much 12 trillion, beating his uh you know 10-year stock comp goals five years early, getting to a $50 trillion market cap in 10 years uh and then a $218 billion market cap in 20 years, which sounds absolutely incredible. Um I think that this would be a bit of far-fetched scenario. I don't think this is definitely not the most likely scenario, but maybe if you, you know, do have XAI and SpaceX merge with Tesla, you get something between the base case and the bull case. Um, but let's go to the charts. Let's see how this compares um with our other companies. Now, so looking at the base case, let's go to the five-year. So, in our base case, remember Elon is going to do twice the performance. He's going to add twice as much to that market cap uh that he actually has the goal set for. And even in that scenario, in the 5-year, the company is only a 3x, which you can see here compared to Dolingo, HIMS, and path, which are over 10x. Oddity over a 10x, right? That's going to be far underperforming our other potential investments. And then in the 10-year, you have Tesla at that 14 uh or $16 trillion market cap, and it's still only a 12x from here. And you have companies like Dualingo, HIMS, uh, four, oddity, lemonade, and especially path in our base case thinking we meaning our most likely scenario far far outperforming Tesla. So that is why I don't really own it currently. Um, let's quickly look at the 10-year bull case, 36x, right? That would be really exciting. Um, you know, a 10x in 5 years. Um, and in the base case, it still does really well, but like I was saying, kind of dead money.
26:39 all of the value for the next 5 years kind of pulled into the current evaluation. Um, but still getting, you know, very healthy forex in 10 years, which does mean you outperform the S&P 500 or whatever if you do hold it for the long run. Now, very interesting. If um SpaceX and X AI do not reverse merge into Tesla to go public and they go public separately, I actually think that might be a really really amazing opportunity to buy into Tesla because there is a huge co cohort of Tesla shareholders that just believe in Elon.
27:15 They will only be invested in Elon. They won't sell no matter the evaluation or anything like that. But if Elon has a second company come public, what you could see is a lot of these huge Tesla uh Elon bowls, uh Elon fans might actually sell some of their Tesla in order to buy SpaceX. They might divvy their their uh kind of portfolio up 50/50 between Tesla and SpaceX, which SpaceX owns XAI. Um right. So I I would uh I can kind of hope well yeah honestly I kind of do hope right that that is what happens because I would love the opportunity to own uh Tesla. Now if Tesla and SpaceX merge like you're not going to see uh any kind of dip in the stock price to buy in. Um but I can't really justify buying into Tesla at these prices when there's so many other great opportunities in the market currently. Um and so I am kind of hoping that the SpaceX and XAI kind of you know go public uh separately uh from Tesla as the XC corporation X holdings. Um and then that kind of does pull away some of those you know forever Elon holders from Tesla and into SpaceX which could make a great buying opportunity in Tesla.
28:29 That's kind of what I'm hoping for. That's kind of what I'm going to be watching for if the opportunity does come. Um, and you know, with our modeling in here, if you have the base case 5-year come up to something um that's a bit more comparable with some of our other uh best picks at the moment, right? So, you see Tesla maybe go up to a six or or an 8x and these companies start to turn around, right?
28:51 Because we're in the software apocalypse, we're in the SAS apocalypse, these companies are going to die because of cloud code and maltbot. This is not going to happen. But yeah, once they uh people realize that's not going to happen, these these uh stocks are going to start going back up, right? And as stocks increase, their forward returns decrease, right? The likely forward returns decrease. So if these stocks start to turn around, their forward returns start to look worse. Tesla stock starts to pull back because SpaceX IPOs, I could see that being a really good opportunity to reinitiate a Tesla position. So I'm going to definitely be watching out for that. um I may just not get the opportunity at all if SpaceX just merges straight into Tesla. But again, I have to trust my numbers. Um and I just am seeing way better opportunities elsewhere. So I want to allocate my capital towards those things. The last thing I wanted to talk about, which is a little bit of a I guess a fringe uh maybe this is a um what's it called? Conspiracy corner. Our own little conspiracy corner. Um, in a recent interview with Elon, um, the the one with the, uh, Stripe co-founders, I believe it was, he was there at a bar drinking some Guinness, um, he was talking about some kind of, uh, automation software that behaves like a human uh, on the computer, which is exactly what RPA is. It's that kind of copying a human on the computer. And when he was talking about that, that is Elon was talking about this kind of mimicking and agentic automation and orchestration, he said the word path a few times. Now, this is really conspiracy corner here, I know, but it was really interesting. You know, you're talking about something exactly what path does. You're not saying path at any other point in the interview and you're using that vocab specifically when you're talking about that. I think it would be really interesting um especially to kind of reach the goal of Elon's comp package in terms of like the market cap he's going for. You know, maybe some M&A mergers and acquisitions is a really good path to building that shareholder value. You have a company like UiPath that is super super cheap, has exactly what Elon is talking about building could be a very very strategic acquisition. Um I think it was super interesting. he did not really give it that much uh information about what he was talking about here because, you know, he he's super um kind of defensive when talking about public companies now because he's been, you know, he's had consequences so many times from saying different things. Um and so he's a lot more careful about it now. But maybe a little bit of a fraudian splip, maybe not. But I thought it was interesting.
31:23 I'm not betting anything on this actually happening, but it could be a really cool opportunity, right? As a massive path shareholder, if Tesla um bought UiPath and all of our UiPath shares got to be turned into Tesla shares, I could see that as another really good way of getting into Tesla. Now, obviously, again, this is conspiracy corner. I'm really reading into what Elon said here to try to kind of make this conclusion. Uh this is probably a very unlikely scenario, but if it does hap does happen, you hear heard it here first um in our conspiracy corner, but uh that was the last thing I kind of wanted to mention. I hope this was super helpful to kind of, you know, see how we model things here and why it's important to model things, right?
32:05 Because, you know, this is looks like insane growth, but once you model it, you kind of see that a lot of that growth is already priced in to the current, you know, share price for Tesla. And then you can compare those opportunities with other opportunities in the market that you've also modeled and that can help you, you know, kind of allocate your portfolio better. I know it definitely helps me. So, um yeah, this uh this kind of spreadsheet is available if you want it link in the description. All we ask for is your email. Um at some point in the future, we want to launch a holding company. So, we just want to, you know, have some way to contact people. That's probably 5 10 years down the road from now. So, you won't really receive any emails. We don't have a this isn't like a a newsletter or anything like that. It's just for us to keep at some point in the future to kind of reach out and see if anyone's interested uh in an IPO for a holding company like kind of like what Berkshire Hathway is is kind of what we want to create eventually. But in the meantime, you can get a free spreadsheet for your own modeling to put your own uh kind of stocks in there to see what we have in here. Um but yeah, I hope this was really helpful. I hope you learned a lot. I hope you understand Tesla better, Tesla's future better. I hope you understand uh investing modeling um and portfolio allocation better. I hope you enjoyed this video. If you did, please leave a like.
Summary
- Tesla's current market cap is $1.3 trillion, with flat revenue growth and low profit margins.
- Future growth is heavily reliant on the successful rollout of robo taxis, which could significantly boost revenue.
- The modeling suggests a potential revenue of $337 billion by 2030 under conservative estimates, with an S-curve growth pattern expected for robo taxis.
- The bare case projects a market cap of $5 trillion in 10 years, while the base case estimates around $16 trillion, contingent on achieving higher profit margins.
- The bull case envisions a market cap of $50 trillion in 10 years, assuming integration with SpaceX and XAI.
- The analysis indicates that current Tesla valuations may not justify investment compared to other opportunities in the market.
- A potential merger or acquisition involving Tesla and UiPath is speculated, based on recent comments from Elon Musk.
- The importance of modeling future growth scenarios is emphasized for better investment decision-making.