Transcript
0:00 We're 2/3 of the way through the year. this is our eighth monthly market update webinar. So, we do try to keep you course corrected throughout the year. And as you know, it's been a very challenging year, but it's been playing out as we've been expecting. so, I want to give you a an update first on the macro. And then we're going to talk to you about our top five bottom ideas based off our core stock list.
0:32 So, if you ask me, what is the most important thing to be watching this month? it's the fact that yields have been surging because that's building the next wall of worry for markets. We are in the dog days of August, which means less trading volume. Less trading volume means markets can do outsized moves. So, part of the thing that you know, you do have to be mindful of is that there have been huge moves in in bond markets this in just the past few weeks.
1:07 The US is not the only market. US 30-year yields are hitting 30-year highs. So, three decade highs. In Germany, 15-year highs. Japan, 30-year highs. UK and France, multi-decade highs. So, there has been an abrupt move higher in long-term yields everywhere in the world. They don't always have to happen for bad reasons, but let me list you the potential bad reasons. So, you might recall the start of this year, this was our stylized map of how we thought the market would play out this year.
1:41 That we would start with a rise at the start of the year. as you know, people turned bearish multiple times. They had multiple reasons, whether it was the Iran war or the AI apocalypse. They kept saying that that would be the market top, but as you know, we stuck with that view that we thought the market would rise at least to 7,300. Later we said 7,700, but now we're thinking 8,000. So, we've been pretty staunch and consistent in our view that we we need to touch 8,000 first. One thing I'll just point out is that, you know, when people talk about midterms and they like gridlock, and so they therefore markets tended to be perform better when you have a house and senate controlled by different party or the White House and Congress having different parties.
2:33 and that was true in the past. I think that we've largely had gridlock anyways in in the last three administrations and partly because of the filibuster. If you're not familiar with the filibuster, for for the Senate to pass anything, >> >> you need 60 senators to support it to make it veto proof or filibuster proof. and therefore that's gridlock because no one has 60 seats in the Senate.
3:05 but crypto, I think, is doing fine, which was our take because you just going to end up with the Clarity Act was going to deem a national body to regulate all crypto, but now this is all just going to be done by rule making as it is now and and by existing courts. So, I mean, crypto is just moving forward regardless, but I do think it's something we want to talk about later this year because there could also be a surprise.