Transcript
0:00 Hi guys. Today we are going to look at my $221,000 stock portfolio. The idea is to make a portfolio recap once a month so we can enjoy together the current pain 9,000 in the red, but hopefully also the future joy of my holdings. Like always, I will talk to you like I talk with my real life close friends. I will share everything, complete honesty, complete transparency, without any form of paywall like other YouTubers do. Also, keep in mind that I don't have another portfolio. I don't have a private portfolio and a public portfolio like other YouTubers. This is literally everything everything I have. If it fails, I'm going to be I share it with you for free, not for you to copy it. Please don't do that. Just because portfolio video are really cool and entertaining, I just hope that you will leave a like and maybe give me a tip in the comments.
0:56 Thank you. Today I also have a very very big surprise, a step up in the virality of this channel. It might come in every moment, so keep watching. Now, let's start with my biggest position, a stock I rarely very rarely talk about, Duolingo. Finally, this month this position turned into a profit for the first time on Wednesday. Here I was up almost 5K. Then Kevin O'Leary talked, the market crashed, and Duolingo went back around my entry level. Now, considering just a couple of months ago, right here, I was down around 20K on Duolingo, I'm feeling really happy.
1:40 I think investors are slowly realizing AI is not such a big problem for Duolingo. So, while Adobe is making new low, Salesforce is making new low, Duolingo is officially out of this a big downtrend that 1 year. This is a crazy big position for me, 62,000 invested. It is 28.3% of my portfolio, but if it goes back down under 100, I might buy even more.
2:12 We need time for sentiment to really change, and we are still far from the 200-day moving average. My current fair value for Duolingo is around $200. And until then, I'm not selling one single share. My second biggest position, mostly because it's the only position that is really green in my portfolio, is Hims & Hers Health. It makes up 16% of my portfolio, up 44%.
2:44 As of today, it's a $35,000 position. Hims is quite controversial. Many people, you can read the also the comments, many people hate the company, feeling their business model is a way to milk the middle class for basic health care. While I agree that health care should be a right and not a for-profit business, I also love how Hims is modernizing and disrupting the current system. I think it's inevitable that we will have more and more online telehealth in the coming years and decades. I think it's great that we're moving towards personalized health care with personalized medicine, ideally customized to our DNA. The progress that AI will bring to medicine is not really fully appreciated by investors, and I believe Hims is positioned to be the future leader of the space. Looking at the chart, the company just crossed the 200-day moving average. If it can hold above this line, the next resistance it's around here, the level where I sold the last year.
3:51 Will I sell again if it goes back here? Let's see. Subscribe to the channel to find out. One thing that's a bit concerning for INTC is the summer seasonality, especially the months of August. In the last 3 years, we got -36%, -30%, -25%. By the way, this tab is presented by Forecaster. If you don't know it, it's a great software for investor. Forecaster means profit. There are a lot of useful features, so click the link below, get the discount, and give it a try. My next two positions are where I'm losing most money.
4:31 I invested around $28,000 in each, and now they are both valued around 20,000 only. I'm talking about PayPal and Adobe. They are down 25% and 30% currently sitting around 9% both of my portfolio. Honestly, it's quite painful. I don't want to talk about Adobe, not because it's too painful, but because I'm planning a big video about it next week. We are under $200.
5:04 It's almost unbelievable. In the last 20 years, we never had such a drawdown for Adobe. Its price-to-earnings ratio is around 11. It's probably the cheapest company on the S&P 500 apart from PayPal. PayPal PE is under eight. So, even if PayPal multiple is lower, I feel Adobe is actually cheaper. Mostly because Adobe keeps delivering great numbers and growth, while PayPal keeps delivering Clearly, they are very different company united by a very negative sentiment, but also united by a weakening moat. I think the lesson for me here and everybody who invested in these companies is to be very careful buying into weakening moats, even if the valuation is cheap. Personally, I do not follow the Warren Buffett rule of only buying great businesses at fair valuation.
6:09 I'm fine buying everything as long as they're cheap enough, but these two investments are making me think that I should have waited for even better prices before entering. I want to be clear, Adobe and PayPal are not the same quality-wise. I believe Adobe is lower risk, is a better quality business compared to PayPal. For this reason, Adobe will always have higher multiple compared to PayPal. Anyway, at the moment, I'm not doing anything about these two big losses. I'm waiting for a rebound and a change in sentiment, but I admit, in all honesty, I regret investing in PayPal. It brought me a lot of pain. I still have 19,000 in cash. I did not buy anything this month.
6:58 There are so many cheap stocks around lately that I'm having choice paralysis. Next is Novo Nordisk, making up 8% of my portfolio. I'm down 8% on Novo, but I do not have any reason to panic or to sell at the moment. Forecasts show the drawdown since 1997, and this kind of crash that we're having now, it's unprecedented. On the other hand, the sales are stronger than ever. I also view Novo as an edge against the macro headwind. If a recession hits, Novo should hold better than most.
7:38 I can't be sure that the worst is behind us, but I do see the sentiment changing for Novo. For example, some days ago data were stolen Novo Nordisk act, but it did not crash the stock like it would have happened some months ago. And finally, we also start having good news from big medias. Novo Nordisk to seek approval soon to sell Wegovy pill in China. Technically, I would like to see a breakout of this previous high and the 200 days moving average around $28.
8:12 Another medical stock in my portfolio is Sanara MedTech. It's also an edge against a potential recession. Unfortunately, I'm down 4K or around 21%, but it's a very volatile micro cap, so it might be green during next month's video. Check it out. Sanara right now is trading at the levels of 2022, while the revenue quadrupled, more than quadrupled. Next year, they're going to launch a new product that should re-accelerate growth.
8:44 So, okay, this is my riskiest investment. Clearly, it's not going as planned. I'm losing money, but I'm definitely not selling now that the story is finally changing. I'm just going to give it more time, wait, and let's see. This month's price for the biggest turn down goes to Microsoft. It managed to lose 20% in 13 bars. We are back to my entry price of $380.
9:17 There is nothing much to say here. We all know Microsoft. For me, this is a safe investment at a fairly very, I would say very reasonable valuation. It's a quality stock Forecaster AI agent give a quality scorecard of 10 out of 10. This is extremely rare. I was hoping it would go straight up at all-time high, but I opened this position here just a couple of months ago. It is a way to give some stability to the portfolio without holding too much cash, but I'm not married to Microsoft. I can see myself closing this position if I find my next big bet or my next go lingo. My smallest position is Booking Holding just 5.8% of my portfolio. It's a great company, stable, slowly compounding, with an acceptable valuation, but similar to Microsoft. Let's say Netflix, Mastercard, Mercado Libre keeps going down, I can see myself closing my Booking Holdings to switch to something else. To conclude, it was a positive month overall. The portfolio went from 210,000 in the last video to 221,000 today. I'm finally up year-to-date 2%.
10:37 I'm underperforming the S&P 500, but if we look at the performance since I started the channel, it's not incredible like it was in January, but I'm still beating the S&P 500 with a decent margin of safety. Clearly, I'm aware this price it's not meaningful since it's just been 18 months. It's nothing, but it's a good beginning. If I had to rate my holdings based on how I am currently feeling, I'm very happy with Duolingo and Hims.
11:11 I'm very unhappy with Adobe, Novo, and Sanara since I'm losing money, but I'm never thinking about selling them. They're great holdings. The three stocks I might sell are Booking, Microsoft, and PayPal. But while Microsoft and Booking's are great holdings, they're quality stocks, I might sell them to make space and to buy something else. I don't share the same love feelings for PayPal. PayPal is clearly the worst of my investment and is what I'm currently struggling with. And now, to conclude, the most important part of today's video, the big surprise.
11:52 I present you our guest of honor for the first time on Adreconomics. This kitten She just arrived today. She definitely doesn't want to be in front of the camera. She have no name, so please help me out. Let's find the best possible name for this cutie. Thank you. Thank you very much for watching. See you next time. Peace out.