What the Hell Just Happened?! | Animal Spirits 490

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0:43 >> Welcome to Animal Spirits with Ben. I am coming to you live from our new Charlotte office, which I just said >> just said? You said welcome to Animal Spirits with Ben. >> Well, I mean, here you are. I'm here, too. >> I'm here. Michael's here, too. >> I'm here as well. Okay. well, like I was saying, we have a new office in Charlotte. I'm excited to be here. Shout out to Laura Novi who designed this place. It's absolutely stunningly incredible, and I am in awe for of her work.

1:14 How about this market, huh? >> Has anything happened in the in the past week or not? >> All right. So Ben, one of the things that I say on every podcast that I go on is very few things said into a microphone age well, especially when you're talking about the stock market, which when we're making forward-looking projections, you know as well as I do that this is an impossible thing to do. Sometimes these takes age bad faster than others, and I had I I I spilled some sour milk last week, Ben.

1:51 When I ended the show concluding that I am still bullish for reasons X, Y, and Z, and primarily it was the sentiment coupled with the earnings trajectory. I love it. I'm here for it. And then quite literally a day later well we record on Tuesday, but on Thursday the Nasdaq 100 fell 6 something percent, wiped out over $2 trillion. It was its worst drop in the market since March of 2020. And I'm not embarrassed so like don't that's not where I'm going with this by any stretch of the imagination. This we say things that age poorly all the all the time that's part of the deal. But what I love so much about the stock market, what everybody part of the aspect that everybody loves about the stock market is that literally nobody knows more than anybody else. Now that's not literally true, okay? Like Bill Ackman probably knows more about the stock market than my wife.

2:51 But it but it's obviously true when we're talking about predictions, especially over the short term, what might happen. Now we're going to get into all of the midterms and what it might mean for the for the stock market which is irony is not the right word here, but you and I are very much of the same ilk vein if you will that for the most part 98% of the time that people spend thinking about the politics, their politics and their their portfolio, complete waste of time.

3:23 It just turns out that this might be the time where those earnings that I was talking about which ultimately drive the stock market could could literally be impacted by what just happened last week. So what what were your thoughts on on election night and the the next couple of days? >> The past week has been a whirlwind. I mean this is this is the opposite of the boring 20s I guess. I don't know if you even call the roaring 20s, but this is the most entertaining decade of our lifetimes.

3:49 Is that not true? Everything that happens it's kind of like wait this is this is real life. If you would have told people that this is this is the stuff that's going to happen in the past week alone, they would have said that you can't that it's too fictionalized. Every this is the craziest market I've ever seen. There's always something happening. And to your point of trying to predict what's going to happen next, it's impossible. >> So maybe let's >> Stocks are down. I mean they're round tripping.

4:14 >> >> So let's So let's rewind. So there was there was a blue wave and what that meant was not favorable for data centers. And of course the AI trade is powering the market, right? It's like pretty much the only thing >> the crazy thing is when that happened I was so I I was in Italy. So I wake up at 7:30 in the morning in Italy and it's 1:30 in the morning in >> Okay. >> Eastern time. So I'm watching all the >> Were futures green by that point or were they still >> So at that point I go to CNBC and it says futures are selling off hard cuz it looks like Democrats are going to win.

4:47 And then 5 hours later no, futures come back. The day after we had the blue wave or blue tsunami or whatever, the market ripped pretty good. Not a huge update, but it was up way more than people thought and especially from the lows of the overnight selling, it was like a pretty sizable jump. And then the next day >> But wait, hold on. Just >> opposite. >> But this was one of those very rare instances. I remember Nasim Taleb was quoted in in a book Well it actually might have been one of his books. I think it was Fooled by Randomness as a matter of fact. Where he was talking about I don't know why this one stuck to my memory. Where he was talking about the way the media was treating a certain event where there was there was something in the Middle East and that was extremely bearish for oil prices. Oil fell 4% right? That Those are the headlines. And then by the end of the day they were up 7%. So the same event can't possibly be bad in the morning and good in the afternoon. But I did >> That's what I was laughing at because I wanted to take a screenshot of the headlines cuz it was complete opposite by the end of the day.

5:42 >> Okay, but I think it made sense. This was one of those very rare instances where the knee-jerk reaction of the Nasdaq being down 3% in the after hours I think everybody was like yes, sure, this makes a lot of sense. A lot of the spending, a lot of the future commitments are in Texas, right? Republicans are more likely, all else equal, to support the spending on data centers. So the the the puke made sense. And then by 4:00 the next day or even 8:00 the next morning, I should say, when futures were bright green, the narrative shifted to, hey, wait a minute.

6:19 Aren't we all complaining about the AI trade? Doesn't everybody hate the fact that these cash cows are now bleeding cash? Like isn't that what we hate? Isn't that why we were selling these stocks to begin with? Now if if the demand is still there, but we get to extend the spending and we're not cramming >> Pump the brakes a little. This is actually a good thing. >> It it's it's great. Okay, so so the the narrative made sense in in the afternoon and the narrative made sense the next day. It was like, oh, this is LOL. We're you know, we're narrative follows price, which it does, but it made sense. Okay. So the the the election was when, Tuesday?

6:59 >> Yes. >> Okay, so Tuesday made sense. The Wednesday rebound made sense. And then Thursday we had the worst day in 6 years and I think everybody at that point is going, huh. All right, now I don't now I don't get it. Now I really don't get it. >> So the S&P was down more than 4%, the Nasdaq was down almost 6%, emerging markets were down 6%, semiconductor stocks were down 11% and South Korea was down 14% in a day. And so you had at that Thursday close, South Korean stocks were down 40%, semiconductors were down a third. Momentum, MTUM, was down almost 30%. Emerging markets were nearly in a bear market. The Nasdaq was down 15%, but the S&P was down sixish. Europe was down five. So there it was all over the board. Now this is this is interesting one. This is from our friend Yuri and Timmer from Fidelity.

7:48 so he he wrote a piece and he writes this weekly asset allocation newsletter, which is great on LinkedIn. So he said, yes, AI stocks were down 30% from their highs, while the S&P was down six. Equal weight S&P was down 1.3%. S&P XAI, which I think is is half the stock market essentially. Is up is up 0.5%. So this this just my only takeaway from this is anytime there is some sort of turmoil under the surface that we've been talking about, people do not want to sell stocks. They want to sell certain types of stocks, but then they just want to be in other types of stocks. They don't want to go to cash yet.

8:26 >> Yeah. >> So it's just this mega rotation happening. And I I just can't believe how fast these I've been talking about this for a decade about how markets are getting faster. It feels like we're having cycles that are compressed. You said a three-day period that felt like a full cycle of things happening. It happened in two days or something. >> Well, and so it's Tuesday morning. We're we're recording a little bit early. But Ben, getting back to the Thursday didn't make sense, right? You had me You had me on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

8:55 The Thursday puke and and then the Monday rebound. We basically We didn't take back all of the gains. I mean, in in certain areas of the market we did. But Monday we ripped. Why? So >> almost round tripped between Friday and Monday. My Here's my only explanation. We're going to get to this later. >> Positioning. There's too much leverage. >> There was some hedge funds who got blown up again. And this is what makes it hard to figure out what's going on in the markets because you say you everyone wants to take these narratives. And we always say price drives narrative.

9:23 >> Mhm. >> And so you you you you put in these you know, even though if it's a square peg in a round hole, you have to find a narrative to make this make sense. But if if the if the headline is from CNBC, a bunch of hedge funds were overleveraged, they sold out, that caused the market to fall and then rebound. That's not very exciting. That no one wants to click on that story. But that's probably what happened.

9:45 >> So you and I, I think for the most part, you even more so than I do, reject most narratives, right? Like it's like dude, it's it's noise. Like stocks are noisy. >> Yeah. >> And then there But then there are certain times where the narrative actually makes a lot of sense. And I really do believe that the Tuesday to Wednesday narrative made sense. The de-grossing makes sense. Semblis Michael Semblis, the the chairman of something, the the head honcho at at at at JP Morgan, has a chart that hedge funds degrossing to the biggest extent since 2016.

10:17 So, there was a lot of just there was a lot of force selling. >> Hang on, I put this in here a little later, but we can like Joel Wiesensel shared this. There was four headlines from Bloomberg about hedge fund dumps all their stocks, hedge fund plunges 30%, hedge fund gets rid of a bunch of employees. There are all these stories about this happening. And I my question to you is >> Is this the new are they the new dumb money?

10:40 >> It it feels like it, but is there more hurting than ever now because of AI? And because you hear all these stories about how these these hedge funds are now like we're turning it all over to AI is hurting more than ever. I think you're right. This is this the hedge funds feel like the dumb money because they're taking so much leverage. They're all they're all on the same bets. >> I I don't know. That could be that's quantifiable data that I don't have at my fingertips. So, I I I don't know the answer to that.

11:04 But gets getting back to what I said at the open, this is why the stock market is is so exciting and humbling because quite I mean really we yes, we know what's happening inside of the market more so than the the average person on the street. But you nor I know Pete nor and we're not paid to you know make short-term predictions, but people that are like taking directional bets just blow up all the time. It is the it is the it is the the most level playing field in the world.

11:33 And it is the only profession that I can think of where there's no advantage for the most part to spending more time to learning more. Like there is a there is a requisite level of knowledge that you need. Now, obviously I'm not talking about like the the cream of the crop that people that work at Citadel and Millennium like that's not I'm not talking about those people. But for the most part, most people that try to up from the stock market who know everything about these companies, know a hell of a lot more about the history and business cycles than the average person, they can't do it.

12:05 >> This is also why like the the situational awareness guy situational awareness guy, which I'd love to get a check in on his performance, but he can have the AI trade from a macro perspective perfect. He can have it nailed down, but it might not matter if you can't survive to get to that point. And that's the thing that we're seeing. Obviously, a lot of these quote-unquote hedge funds don't know what hedging means and that that's a kind of a cover-all term, I guess, but >> Let me let me let me zoom out for a second before we zoom back in and get to the get to the stories of the day.

12:34 Obviously, this is what we do, right? You and I are I mean as podcasters, this is what we do. But just as as people like to talk about the stock market, we're talking about today. >> It's endlessly fascinating to me that the stock market is this is why I know some people think that the markets are boring and finance is boring. To me, it's the human element that makes it so >> Hold on. Nobody thinks the stock market is boring. They just might not be interested in it.

12:56 >> Well, yeah, that's what I mean. There are certain people who like I have friends in my life who I know do not pay attention to the markets at all. And I'm sure they think they think what you they they probably think Ben, what you do is so boring. And because you're right, they're not interested at all. But that to me, it's the human element makes it so fascinating. >> By the way, just total tangent here.

13:14 Last week, you and I were talking about the differences that we feel in movies, how horror movies scare me and coming-of-age movies are things that you like and you said it's the same thing. It's not the same thing because I get a physical visceral reaction from horror movies that you don't literally feel. It's an emotion that you don't feel. I can watch coming-of-age movies and fully understand why you enjoy them. They just don't do it for me. It's but it's not exactly the same thing.

13:46 >> Yeah, I understand why people do like horror movies. I'm just saying it doesn't do it for me. I get it. >> Yeah. >> Are you saying I'm a psychopath? Is that what you're trying to get at? >> There's there's there's some there's some wiring that's not fully firing in your brain. Yes, it's weird to me that you don't get scared. But that's that that's for you to figure out. >> Can I blame it on the markets? My wife always says to me like why don't you get more enthusiastic about this trip that I'm planning? Why don't you like show some more And I feel like this is I blame the markets. I've spent all this time being like you have to keep a cool hand and steady hand and that makes it so I've taken all the emotion out of my life.

14:17 >> You aren't even killed person. All right. So, anyway, so so what I was going to say to to the zoom out was and again, yes, we talk about this every single week, but this is all Like imagine debating what Amazon is going to be in 2011 or if if Meta is going to be able to monetize mobile. And I know this is the story of markets as people comment, but especially with a transformative technology like what we're talking about here, it's going this these conversations are going to age so poorly.

14:49 So so so poorly. Like we don't know what these businesses are where that where anything is going. We have no idea. Not a clue. >> this is why I was trying to talk about the index thing last week and someone else on the show called me an for it, but that's all I was saying >> No no no no no no no. I thought and I felt bad calling you an and and I know you're not an I love you. I thought that you were acting like a jerk. I think what you were trying to say is no crying in the casino.

15:14 >> Exactly. That's that's what I'm saying. Everyone's an adult here. If you make these bets, so you have this this thing on the side. >> We'll just say with this. So I I'm fully on board. Fully fully fully on board. No crying in the casino. We are risking our money. Sometimes the risk pays off and other times it doesn't. But I, unlike you sir, have a heart and when people are getting blown up, I don't feel bad like they should get refunded, but you know, it sucks. I've been there.

15:40 >> Yeah, but I that that that is my stance is there's no crying and I think everyone everyone now understands this because everything is a market. People are betting on sports. They're betting on prediction markets. >> Yeah. >> They're betting on their kids sporting tour tournaments probably. Like people that's I think people understand this now. >> Yes, take responsibility for your own for your own actions. Okay. This might be the chart of the year and we've got a lot of charts this year that >> Before you get to this, how many times do you think we've said this is the chart of the year >> Hey.

16:05 >> year? >> This is a great chart. >> We've said it at least a dozen times. We should Anyway, all right. Keep going. >> Okay. so Warren Pies has a chart that shows what the stock market has done. There's two different lines. How the stock market has performed on days when semis are up, when the AI trade is check, okay? >> Right. >> And on those days cumulatively, so only the up days, only only the S&P when SMH is up is up 71%.

16:45 And on days when semis are down, the S&P is down 34%. There's a 105% spread. This is not so. >> This is like one of those days where like if you take out all the Fed days since 2008, the market is down or something. So DRAM >> But this just shows that like it really the market in 2026 has completely been driven by is AI good today or is AI bad today? >> The the crazy thing is so I would say that our friends at Roundhill have the memory ETF, DRAM.

17:18 And that would to me would be semiconductors on steroids a little bit. It's like a concentrated bet on semiconductors. Is that fair to say? Like it it's more volatile than like SMH, which is the >> Okay. >> so that at the lows last week, that ETF was down 54%. It's still down 48% from the highs. >> Healthy flesh wound. >> These semiconductor stocks have gotten massacred. And they're now trading I sent you in justice last week, SanDisk is trading for three times earnings.

17:47 Absolutely nobody believes in these stocks. Nobody. >> know what? I I think the market's been right this all time. And I I don't know that the market has been right, you know, we we will see on on re-rating the entire market in terms of the forward PE coming down the entire way. But as far as like the memory stuff and saying, no, no, no, this is the peak of the cycle, so forget about the next 12-month earnings, credit to the market. I mean, it it almost it almost always gets it right.

18:19 >> But like what happens if the the >> earnings stay strong for a little bit longer? When does the market tap out a little bit and say like I don't cuz you're right, no one believes it. Why would these stocks be trading at such low multiples? >> Ben, I can't I find that very improbable. With the caveat With the caveat that, you know, everything I say is wrong. The idea that like there's going to be like a re-ramp in investor expectations that actually that wasn't peak memory.

18:45 No, it was. >> Yeah. >> Like we saw it. >> So we we talk a lot about how price drives narrative in the markets, but it So this is also fascinating for for me to watch in politics because it is a dozen times worse there in the way that price drives narrative. So if you think back to 2024 and what happened and all the narratives coming out of that, it was billionaires are buying the elections, right? Elon Musk bought Twitter. That was that he was pulling the strings. young men have completely gone Republican and we have to because of Joe Rogan and because of podcasts. And this is this is never coming back and it's it's Democrats are done for years and years and years.

19:24 And then two years later, now you see these things that say Elon Musk spent something like $200 to $400 million and like 98% of his candidates that he backed lost. young men under 30, there was a tweet about this, went from way over to Republican like plus 38 to Democrat for young men. It completely flipped. And I think anytime you look at this like the recency bias in in politics is so much worse than it is in markets that the people try to figure out what happened. And I don't think that the people in politics realize how quickly that people can just change their minds these days.

20:00 >> Yes and Yes and this was very simple. And this is hindsight, okay? Cuz I don't I don't think about politics. I don't think about the midterm election at all. But Trump came in in 2024. He was going to end the war. He was going to fix inflation and he started a war and he didn't fix inflation. And people are sick and tired of everything costing so much. >> Yeah and and the >> the two biggest policy moves he made both made inflation worse. I I I agree with that, but I I don't but the thing is people were talking about it in 2024 like these trends are set in stone for the next 10 years.

20:35 And I don't think that trends are set in stone that anymore. >> I don't think people are saying that. I think I think >> to some of the the the the stuff people were saying after the election in 2024. >> I'm not going to do that. Find proof. The onus is on you, sir. You said it. >> All right. >> I think I think that the general commentary on politics is it swings like a pendulum. >> It does cuz that's the thing my wife goes, well, isn't in two to four years it just going to go go back the other way? And my answer is probably.

21:01 >> Yeah. >> is how it this is what happens. >> So, I wonder if I mean this this this go ahead. >> My only political statement here and I probably said this before, if not now, then when are we going to get an independent candidate to go I don't I don't agree with these and I don't agree with these I'm going to be someone who just takes it like why do we not have this? >> Isn't that 80% of the country?

21:21 >> I I just >> who who agrees with these and who agrees with these Like nobody. >> I I don't if it's not going to happen now, I don't know like in 2028 is not the perfect year for an independent candidate, then I don't know when it ever will be. >> Well, do you mean a third party candidate? >> Yes, someone just to say look I'm not a Democrat, I'm not a Republican. I'm just I'm an American.

21:42 >> Okay. I I no idea. I don't even I don't know how this works. but this guy Josh Barzon Barzone tweeted the 2026 midterms in one picture and basically the entire country outside of a select group of areas went went to the left and I think there's some great stuff coming out of this from Derek so so Derek Thompson wrote what did he write? The Trump decade is over and he wrote like a new chapter in American politics begins. I want to quote a few of the things things that he said.

22:15 James Tallarico and forgive me if if I get this name wrong wrong cuz I don't know who these politicians are. John Asoff all right. So, James Tallarico is 37 years old. John Ossoff is 39 years old. Abdul El-Sayed is 42. Iowa Governor elect Rob Sanders 44. The political order that has governed America for most of my adult life has been overwhelmingly dominated by baby boomers. But the candidate class is changing. How long the hell is this? Who needs to see these We have We have senators and Congress people like literally killing over. They They look like zombies. They look like vegetables up there. I don't care I don't care what side you're on.

22:56 The fact that hopefully the people that are making decisions for all of us are a little bit more in touch. I was listening to the Rewatchables this morning. And Harrison Ford was Forget the exact stat. This movie's like 30 years old, 34 years old, and he was He's Donald Trump's age today or something like that. Like the the days of these 80-year-old people calling the shots has got to end. And that's not being ageist. What is being ageist, and I apologize, last week I said that nobody over 50 is going to be using an agent. And I I hand up. I I I was wrong. I could take >> We got some emails from people, didn't we?

23:36 >> I got some emails about this. And you know what? Yeah, I was wrong. And guess what? Ben, 50's not that old. I mean, you're not You're going to be 50 kind of soon as well, Ben. >> I'm on the doorstep. >> So, I apologize for for my ageism there. That was That was not nice of me. One One last thing. And this is Ben Ben, you were just making the point. And this is the thing that we all agree on. Like everybody listening, I don't care who you voted for, what your politics are, this is awesome.

24:07 So, Derek says big money had a bad night. A popular take that I see all the time is that, quote, billionaires are increasingly controlling our elections. It's popular in part because it's somewhat true. The share of campaign financing coming from billionaires has soared in the last few decades in the last few election cycles, which would pose an existential crisis to democracy if it turned out that a handful of individuals could translate their income into political power that further entrenched their corporate power and wealth, creating an endless vicious cycle of plutocratic self-gifting.

24:41 >> This This narrative made sense to me. >> Well, cuz it was it was kind of true. I mean, there was a lot of truth to it, but this was an absolute repudiation of all of that. We are sick and tired of the This was really I I forget who I'm stealing this from, but somebody said this election was way less about the left and the right as it was versus the top and the bottom. >> Yeah.

25:06 >> Problem is Problem is and we'll get off the politics soon. Oh, by the way, this was an interesting response to the election and part of the frustration that I've had with some of the way that things are covered. So after the election, on a green day, mind you, okay? So on Wednesday, everything was rip roaring green. The New York Times was down 3% then. >> Oh, just saying that what people aren't really paying attention to politics as much anymore?

25:35 >> Because the New York Times loves to hate on Trump and the conservatives because I mean, obviously that's that's that that that's the job in the media these days. But that's that's that's the whole thing. New York Times stock was down 3% on a day when every other stock was bright green. all right, where was I going with this? Last thing on on politics I was saying. I can't remember. Who cares? Let's just keep it moving.

26:00 >> All right. But it's the ultimate like William Goldman, nobody knows anything, but it's still fun to to like pretend you know. Like how could Like Like if you think about all the the numbers that they have for the election now and they show these individual counties, oh, young men under 24 did this and females did like it's really fascinating to look at though cuz you obviously didn't have that level of look through in the past.

26:23 >> No. No. >> then I forget about it. So the one like big market thing was Here's some CNBC voters rebuff data center is in every ballot measure except one. So I think it was like 43 out of 44 measures come up for data centers. And I I I got to be honest. I don't know exactly what the end outcome of these votes is, but the whole point was people are people want to like you said, pump the brakes a little on this stuff, slow down. Here's my initial reaction to this cuz this was all over the place.

26:52 That like people don't like this stuff. They don't want it to be in their communities. They want to slow down. Does it just because I don't really think that like in places like Texas are going to completely get out of this as a business. I think what's going to happen is it makes this stuff a little more expensive to build. Like the the communities are going to take their pound of flesh. They're going to get more in tax revenue. Like the data centers aren't just going to be able to bully their way in here.

27:14 Doesn't this just mean the hyper scalers are going to win and just pay pay a little bit more for it? Like isn't doesn't that all that isn't that all that's going to be the outcome of this is like yeah, they're going to like they're going to have to pay a little more. They're going to have to give some more incentives. They're going to have to pay to come into these communities. And that's what happens. Or they're going to have to go further away and pay more money. It's just going to be a little bit more expensive.

27:35 And it's going to make the ROI a little smaller. That's my big takeaway. >> Okay, I'm going to punt. I really have no I honestly I got I got no clue on what this means exactly for the future of >> That's my that's my initial read. Like it's just it just makes the hyper scalers more entrenched cuz they'll be they'll pay up for it. They'll probably won't be happy about it, but they will. That's kind of what I found it.

27:54 >> Let me share let me share one thing that I thought was pretty relevant as far as the market's potential overreaction that like AI data center spending is done and like I thought this is a really illuminating >> to me it felt like a little bit of an overreaction that like this is done done. Like I I don't believe that. >> I don't believe it either. So Meta president Ben Dina Powell McCormick she said I believe it was on Wednesday morning or Thursday morning.

28:28 She said we did have a governor that won last night who did make data centers a big part of their platform say to us, quote, as soon as we get past the inauguration, let's meet because we don't want to lose this investment in our town. We don't want these jobs to go elsewhere. I mean, obviously, right? Like >> Right. Yeah. That that's my way of looking at it too, right? >> settle down. We're digesting it. We're I think hopefully the leverage is now been wiped out.

29:01 so we'll see. >> Okay. >> One of one one of one of the things that somebody emailed us about, which I thought was was was pretty interesting, was does wishing for a crash cuz Ben, you said last week that there's a lot of people that are rooting for this. Does wishing for a crash relate to how unlikable either the protagonist companies or protagonist individuals are? Anthropic is the perfect example. Starts as a research lab slash AI safety business, but then wow, they discover they're sitting on a skills and asset base with billions, trillions, and surprise absolutely no one by pivoting in the direction of making themselves billionaires. And as for the individuals, Elon, Zuck, Altman at all, surely there's never been a group of people more ripe for a reckoning.

29:52 were the leaders of big business during the dot com bubble perceived like this as well or has social media unintentionally created both heroes and villains of this folk? Ben, get this. So Josh and I were invited to to to Barron's Fund event. That's been going on for 33 years. So Ron Barron, legendary investor, was a very early investor in Tesla, a very early investor in SpaceX. He has made his investors quite literally billions, maybe tens of billions of dollars off of Elon Musk and and other investments. And it was a phenomenal event. It was in Is it It was So in Lincoln Square there's there's the Metropolitan Opera House.

30:40 There's Geffen Hall. There's another place where when you see the celebrities at the Met Gala dressed in their wacky costumes. All right? So it was that place. So he rented out the whole place. It was really spectacular. There was thousands of people there and it was spectacular. So I've never been inside the Metropolitan Opera House. shocker, I know. So you walk in and there's like red velvet carpet everywhere and there's people with the with like the the the manual the vacuum cleaner just keeping it pristine.

31:08 I mean really spectacular. So we walk in, we see Thomas Peterffy, the the the founder and CEO of Interactive Brokers speak and he was wonderful and then we broke for lunch and there's three different lunch time performances. There's Kelly Clarkson, which I think is a bit sort of random, but whatever. And then there was two comedians, Nate Bargatze and a little man named Jerry Seinfeld. So Josh and I saw Seinfeld do 45 minutes. And he doesn't miss obviously. so he was phenomenal.

31:41 And he said he did a bit about your a bit about cell phone cell phones and he's like take out your phones. I I It's okay. Here I am. Take a picture. And he did a whole joke with I don't know what you're doing with these things, but here I am. Hi, nice to see everybody. so I took a picture. and so we rolled from Seinfeld into Elon. Ron Baron interviewed Elon for over an hour. And listen, you might not like Elon.

32:08 I don't particularly love Elon. I respect the out of entrepreneurs. I love capitalism. I love what he's built. I love that people like this exist. I don't like that we demonize him even though I think that we all agree that he's done some things that are not very popular. Okay, fine. Whatever. >> You can recognize the fact that he's done some great things in business and he's not the greatest person in the world. >> Yeah. so he had a line. he said like the the So Elon's net worth went down by over $100 billion after the election.

32:36 Like literally Tesla and SpaceX lost a lot of money. And I was thinking a few things. So, he said he said the he said the pitch fork level for data centers are pretty high, are they? And then he let out like an evil like almost like a literal evil cackle. It was amusing and and bizarre. So, I was thinking like first of all, there is nobody, and we'll talk about Jensen a little bit, there is nobody in the history of the universe that has had more key man risk than Elon Musk.

33:09 What happens to these companies if he dies? God forbid. What happens if if if he would have dropped dead? Does does Tesla get fall by 40% the next day? So, anyway, getting back getting back to this question, I think I think that there is a lot of truth here. It's not just one thing. I mean people are scared of AI for various reasons. The PR has been terrible. Some of the people leading the charge are not super charismatic.

33:35 but I think it really sucks that we live in a world. Like I love Silicon Valley. I love the insane risk taking. That is American exceptionalism. The fact that people are investing in Instinct at a $30 billion valuation, that doesn't happen anywhere else. And maybe Instinct is worth $200 billion in 5 years, and maybe it's worth zero in 3 months. The fact that we have people that are putting money on the line for the betterment of society. I mean Tesla's been pretty good for the environment and for for the world, and SpaceX is a miracle.

34:16 but the reality is this email is not wrong. These people are pretty pretty easy to root against. Some of the that they say is wild, and of course government isn't helping because government blames them for all of our problems, right? I mentioned earlier it's not a left versus right, it's a top versus bottom. It's like no, Elon has so much money because he's taking it from the poor man. Like the economy is positive sum. And I like, even though I understand why these people are villainized. These people, listen, I don' like a lot of these people too myself, but of an unfortunate state of events that we find ourselves in.

34:52 >> It's sort of the Social Network, obviously, and I think everyone thinks these people are robots and they don't care about the people that their products hurt. And I think that is true. >> You think? I mean, it's true. Look what look what look what Facebook did to our world. It is true. >> It's like there was a story of one of the Google founders, I don't know if it's Brin or Page, said like the the ultimate way for humans being is to upload our consciousness into robots so we can save our vessels and then like our consciousness is in the AI robots and that's that's how we survive as a species.

35:19 >> yeah, sure. Or how about you shut the up? >> Right. So I understand and they they they just they do not have the best they don't have good people skills at all, obviously, right? There's not good people and and the most ironic thing is I think the one who has the the best people skills, who's probably the most important CEO besides Elon Musk right now is Jensen Huang from NVIDIA. He's the one if you listen to him in an interview, he's very thoughtful. He he understands things. He to me >> Ben Ben Ben, he doesn't even know his own address.

35:45 >> >> But he he is he's the most thoughtful of all of them and I think you could make the case that he's the most important CEO of the most important company in the AI build out. And I can't believe that the stock was only down 5%. So I sent to you and Josh on Sunday that there was an apology from him made to his family and made to his employees saying, hey, I had an affair.

36:06 >> But wait, hold on hold on hold on. But Ben back up. Cuz you shared that story with us from the New York Times. Was it on Wednesday? >> Yeah. >> And there was there was well, maybe there was no market reaction because it was in the midst of chaos. So all right, back to you. Go ahead. >> But not all I mean, you you again, you couldn't write this. If this was in a TV show about the build out of AI, you'd go, nah, too on the the woman was literally a Chinese spy.

36:28 >> Yeah, what is this the Manchurian candidate? Wait, so so for people that don't know what you're talking about, what's this what's going on here? >> So I asked I asked my wife about this. I said, do you know what NVIDIA is and Jensen Huang? She said, I saw a headline but I don't I don't really know. so obviously China is behind us in the AI game. So they literally sent a spy and affair with him. And this is this is a company that is very intertwined with Nvidia. If you read a lot of the stories, this is this mega world company or whatever is very intertwined. And he was So he was on the Dworkesh podcast in April and they had a really good back and forth about should Nvidia be selling chips to China or should they not? And Dworkesh made a really full-throated thing saying, no, this is How could you sell chips to the country we're competing against? And Jensen's whole spiel was basically like, listen, if we don't sell to them, they're going to figure how to make their own and that's probably even worse. So if we keep selling to them and let them do their own stuff, that's going to be okay. So even if his stance here is right and if maybe he wasn't even compromised by this Chinese spy asset, like maybe he didn't give her any information, but it sure you How could >> He He gave her something, it looks like.

37:27 >> How could you How could you ever trust him again? So Dan Ives went on CNBC yesterday and said, listen, if if he's taken out as CEO and I think there's a real possibility. I mean, it seems like these founders never really get in trouble. >> No, come on. Come on. He's not going to go anywhere. >> There's going to be investigations. Yeah, you're right. It would be pretty shocking to me, but Dan Ives is like, hey, listen, this company is worth 20 to 30% less. And there were In fact, there was a short selling thing on They put this whole thing on Twitter a couple months ago saying we're we're putting out a short coverage on Nvidia because they like laid this whole China thing out. Did you read that or not?

38:04 >> No. >> Okay. I You have to go They laid this out and they also They said They showed pictures of the two of them together saying his relationship with her is very bizarre. So this I can't wrap my head around this. This is the craziest story in a decade of crazy stories. A literal Chinese spy infiltrated the most important CEO in the most important tech company in the most important innovation of our lifetime. Holy crap.

38:27 So I have a few I have a few I have a few random thoughts here. >> Warren Buffett was right. Charlie Munger Jesus, I'm sorry. three things that bring people down. liquor, leverage, and and women. Yeah, ladies, yeah. He was right. >> So if they if they were start drinking again in Silicon Valley because they don't drink anymore, they're screwed. Okay. So here's here's a few takes. So in the since 2010, the US stock market is up almost 800%.

38:53 China is up 1 22%. Isn't this just bullish that China wants send spies here? Like we would never send a spy there. They want to steal our stuff. We don't have to steal their stuff. That's bullish. Number two. This is like the beach scene in the Firm. Remember when TC goes to the beach in like the Bahamas with Gene Hackman? >> I've I've only seen the movie once. >> Okay. And there's this woman who's got like a hurt leg and he has a an affair with her and they take pictures of him cuz they want to have some like that Anyway.

39:18 he doesn't have one guy on his team. You You and I always talk about how there's a few lone wolves out there who like don't have someone to call them on their No one on his team said like, hey man, come on. Let's just like take a look at her, maybe. No one on his team said that. Also, the guy wears leather jackets every day. No one thought this was a risk that he's going to have an affair with a Chinese spy because he wears leather jackets every day. Like he he want you know, he's put himself out there a little bit.

39:43 >> what do you mean the leather jacket? What, he's looking too suave? >> Yeah, he looks too you know like I mean come on, a guy who wears leather jackets like that at his age, that's that's a risk. Finally I do think that like you talked about Elon before, like him putting himself out there more and being on social media and I think what we've learned is that billionaires are some of the smartest people in the world, but they're also some of the dumbest. And it's it's both the it's almost like I don't know it's almost like positive for humanity to see this, like oh, these people are idiots just like the rest of us.

40:12 But I I can't I can't believe he I cannot believe this happened. I can't believe he did this. Like how do you Do you think when he's having a conversation with his wife he goes, I mean yes, the affair was bad, but she's a literal spy. She's trained in espionage. How could I >> I was I was I was defenseless. >> over it. I can't Yes, I can't I can't >> I forgot sticking with like the whole these these these CEOs. Last week I had the thought how much how well these companies have treated their shareholders over the years.

40:51 Right? Like the the innovation, the share gains, the buybacks, the dividends. Mark Zuckerberg is buying back $400 quadrillion worth of stock in the minute the minute he taps his investors on the shoulder and says, hey guys, you mind if I raise some money? They just tank his stock and I was thinking he's like he's like Denzel Washington in Training Day. You know that scene, that Pelican Bay scene? It's like, oh, you mother >> >> Like I've done all of this. Look how much I've done for you. And the minute I need a favor, I need I need 20 I need 20 billion, you guys go and you dump my stock.

41:29 >> But are are you not surprised the video wasn't down more yesterday? It was down four or 5%. >> Well, it was it it it it was but it's it's been down a lot. >> This is a massive This is a massive risk for this. There's going to be investigations out the ass for months and months to come on this. This is this is not just a little thing you can brush off. This is You don't think that now that the Democrats have control of the Senate and Congress the House are going to go, you know what?

41:51 This guy was trading potentially secrets from our country to the Chinese? >> I Okay. Yes, but guess what? >> This is an enormous risk. >> But the story's out. The story's out. He's not getting He's not getting taken out. >> All right. I >> All right. Let's let let's get let's get back to like is the AI trade dead? Is it over because the Democrats >> one more thing from last week. The leather jackets, that was his midlife crisis.

42:17 He didn't think through his midlife crisis thing. He didn't appreciate what he had, like I said. >> You know, speaking of, I got a lot of emails about what I was talking about last week, which I appreciate everybody's thoughtful responses. >> was trying to talk you off the ledge. >> No, no, no. Yeah, so to be very clear, you know, depression is not a funny thing. I am not >> you >> I got You know what's funny? Two two people recommended the same book that I actually might listen to.

42:51 but yeah, we're getting older. That's you know, we're we're feeling the feelings. >> the the book that I recommended last week is called the Happiness Curve. That's his point he makes is this is normal. This is perfectly normal to have these feelings. Especially think about >> A lot of the emails we got was like Ben's 100% right. Just just just push through. >> Like we had a friend who right now is dealing with a parent who has dementia and another parent with cancer and they're raising their kids. So you're in that sandwich generation and you're dealing with mortality on one end in like the kids on the like that that's a lot to deal with for people. That's why these feelings happen.

43:22 >> I cannot have a better life. Like I have no problems for the most part. I mean, I have normal problems like everybody else, but nothing catastrophic. >> Normal human problems. >> healthy. Yeah, I got no I got zero complaints. Everything is great. But thank you for your concerns. >> not infiltrate Red Holt's wealth. Like like like let's say Josh gets Josh gets taken over by a Chinese spy who wants to steal all the RIA secrets and bring them over to China.

43:47 You know? >> Yeah. Okay. >> for us. >> So so let's get back to this tech stuff. So so Elon said to said to Ron Barron that SpaceX I think it was you know SpaceX is is will be by December, so in three weeks, they will be at a 100 billion dollar annualized revenue run rate. And he thinks that they could do they could be at $500 billion next year.

44:17 Astounding astounding numbers. So if any of this happens, I don't think we need to worry about the short-term fluctuations in the market. all right. Andy Jassy >> wait, but this gets back to the semiconductor thing. If he's right about that, then the semiconductor earnings are still going to come in. Are they not? >> Mhm. >> This is what I'm talking about. Like what if there is a major underestimation and that's when we get like the blow off top with people go, oh shoot, we we we we were way too conservative on here.

44:47 >> we we're so far from blow off top, but point taken. All right, so so here's here's what Andy Jassy said just to reset the stage of what is actually happening. Andy Jassy is the CEO of Amazon. Hear me now. He said, I think what we're seeing with AI, it's the biggest transformation in our lifetime. I know we've all heard that a million times, but the there's some good numbers coming. If the idea of being able to grow 39% he's talking about AWS with $184 billion annual run rate and to grow 40% a year on top of that in each of the next two years and ultimately end up as a trillion dollar plus business, we're going to invest to continue to be the leader.

45:32 would it be more convenient cuz he was he was asked about the spend. Would it be more convenient if this type of acceleration and opportunity happened over 25 years and you could spread the CAPEX over that time? Yeah, it might be more convenient, but that's not the world that we live in. so guess what? After the election actually maybe that is the world that we live in. Maybe things do slow down and we don't see like the cash flow hemorrhaging. And that's why I thought the reaction on whatever the Green Day was made a lot of sense because the AI trade is not done. It's just going to be more palatable for investors. So >> don't you think that the CEOs are okay if we slow down a little bit?

46:12 >> I think they'd be thrilled. I think they would be thrilled. So yes, it is possible that the earnings are impacted by the election, but I I view this as a positive, especially the wipeout, like the sentiment wipeout. I I love it. I think it's great. >> Yeah, I think I think this is all very healthy that this is stuff is happening. That somebody can go down so much and >> You know what? I kind of wish, not literally, but I was so ready, Ben for to to give everybody a glass of settle down juice.

46:46 The calm down to put my my calm down hat back on my head and we haven't worn that hat in a long time. I I'm waiting. I was very I was cocked, locked, and loaded, Ben to to to to pump the proverbial brakes of we're going to be okay and then the market rebounded. So that hat is it's still on the shelf for now, but I'm ready. >> All right. But it is funny how it's like oh this is the dead cat bounce and oh this is over. No, it's just it's the cycles are just it's just it messes with your head in a lot of ways if you're trying to figure this stuff out.

47:17 BofA had a great chart that I I I talked about like there hasn't been enough pain in the markets, but there hasn't the NASDAQ 100. So over the last year the NASDAQ 100 has been in a correction, 10% drawdown or more more often than it has been in a rally. This is kind of crazy if you think about it. This is >> to hard to believe. >> Yeah, this is kind of like the meta chart you shared last last week where it's like up and down and up and down and >> Ben say it one more time in in case people missed that.

47:40 >> So the NASDAQ 100 has been in a correction more often than it's been in a rally for the last year. It's up in that time, but there's been let's see 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 10% corrections since 2022 for the NASDAQ 100. That's a lot. So way more corrections there. >> Huh man. >> But so so the other big thing that happened is in the last month I guess is that rates have come down quite a bit.

48:04 >> Mm. >> Which is great because that means we've solved all of our fiscal issues with the country. Don't have to worry about those anymore. >> That's it. We're good. >> But but I think this is a nature is healing moment. So this this next segment is sponsored by PIMCO ETFs. So PIMCO has this chart that they sent us. so they say as rates have reset cash investments have lost their competitive yields compared to various fixed income strategies. So they're looking at what what's the spread over cash? And for a while there fixed income was kind of >> spread.

48:31 >> No but and cash was yielding more than almost everything. So they look at short-term bonds and corporate bonds and core bonds and multi-sector and high yield and you look at like muni bonds after after taxes. >> Matter of fact we just did a podcast with PIMCO where we spoke about high high yield munis. >> Yeah, we talked to their head of munis will bonds Dave Hammer and talking about like and on a tax equivalent yield like the spreads here this to me this is a normal fixed income market finally for the first in a very long time. This is what you want to see. This is what it should look like. And you're actually getting a decent amount on cash, so that that helps give these other places a buffer. This that's this is a great thing.

49:11 >> Ben, can I can I share a I don't know why I just thought of this. Just popped into my brain. Chart Kid and I are doing What are your thoughts in a few hours? And I had them look at what happened after the.com bubble burst. So obviously tech and telecom com services stocks got destroyed. The Nasdaq fell what 80%? >> Yeah. >> Do you know that the other the rest of the market was positive?

49:41 >> So like the equal weight and such or what? >> How crazy is that? >> I know small caps did well, mid caps did well, value stocks did well. >> the the S&P the S&P X Tech and Telecom was positive. From the from from from the top of the market to the bottom X Tech and Telecom had a positive return. >> Yes. There's going to be a If AI blows up, there's going to be hedges out there, which we've talked about. All right, I want to talk about one last >> think I think Sorry, last point. I think especially in today market where all we talk about it is there's too much money sloshing around, if and when it really leaves tech for good, it will go into whatever, staples and financials and whoever whoever whatever.

50:24 >> All right, how about how about this for a potentially bearish story for AI? This is another Thorson Slack chart. We are approaching the longest stretch of unemployment below 5% in history. So the longest stretch was 1965 to 1970 was 64 months in a row. We're now at 61. So this is a longer streak under 5% unemployment than we had in the late 90s, then we had in the 1950s coming out of World War II, then we had in the late 2010s.

50:49 We're we're probably going to beat it or because I I can't see unemployment next 3 months spiking above 5%. At what point does the strong resilient labor market become kind of bearish or was like, no no no, this is just a reset of expectations that we're going to be working with AI. >> I don't follow. >> The fact that AI has not disrupted the labor market yet, is that bearish for AI? >> No, that's a stretch. Come on.

51:14 You're being too cute. >> All right. I'm just I'm just >> mean, you're very you're you're very cute, but I think you're being extra cute. >> I try. I I better this week my my cut on my forehead healed a little bit. I I was walking around Italy last week like an idiot. Look like there's a big circle on my head. >> What are you Wolverine? How did that disappear so fast? >> I I have no idea. The scab fell off and it's I I I'm healing. Maybe I put holy water on it or something in Italy.

51:38 >> Okay. >> Anyway, speaking of Italy, let let's let me do my Italy stuff now. >> All right, go ahead. >> I got a few things to share. So first of all, so I had this event. There was 400 people there. we did a live podcast. We answered some questions. It was a very fun event. Even some of it was in Italian, some of it was in English. At at this point, I should just learn Italian. What's the what's the language company called?

51:58 Duolingo? I should just learn it. Yeah, cuz they they had this translator for me on a screen. Anyway, yo people there young and old all all ages, but a lot of young people, a lot of young Italians, and I'm asking them about like young Europeans because there's a lot of angst in Europe right now, right? All the riots in France, all the things going on with the pensions. And what what I was told and there was there was these like there was this kid who raised his hand in the front row and asked a question. He's 18 years old, Italian. He started his own podcast.

52:23 >> Wow. >> And he says, I'm coming for you. Like, you know? Ricardo spotted the guy who had me over there, has this podcast called The Bull and he said he kind he's like, listen, I love the way that you guys talk about the markets at the compound. I decided to do that for Italy and he he decided to talk in this like common sense approach. Be be real with people in his podcast. I think he started it in 2022 or 2023 and it blew up immediately.

52:44 So people want this stuff internationally. And so the thing that was interesting to me is that like young people across the globe like now know that they're like we have to do this on ourselves. So they're like like listen, our parents' generation, our grandparents might have got these great pensions in Europe and we can't bank on that anymore. We know it. And so they said they have this word over there called it's like poy or or I'm not I'm butchering the present pronunciation. It something with a P.

53:06 And what it basically translates to in English is and so or like what of it, right? So it's the whole like yes, we got dealt a bad hand. Like we're not going to have these glorious pensions and stuff that our parents had, but now what? And they said a lot of the people young people there are going, okay, fine, what are we going to do about it? Which I love that attitude. >> great attitude. Yeah. >> But I I really do think that the young people of the world like there there's going to be a continued bull market and young people being able to look at this stuff, gain market knowledge, and invest in the markets.

53:38 It's a global thing. We're going to have years and years of more and more people investing in the markets. And I don't think people have quite like mapped that out what that means. Like the whole relentless bid Josh has talked about forever was just a US story. That is going to be a global story and it's already starting. All right, a few more things. We talked about how nothing is undiscovered anymore. So I was asking them like I wanted to go see the Last Supper painting in Milan.

54:03 And they were like, you kidding me? The you cuz you get a 15-minute window to go see it if you book. You have to book a ticket, you get 15 minutes to look at it, then you have to move on. The tickets are 6 months out. >> Wow. >> go. They told me like everywhere in Europe now because so many Americans travel there now is impossible. Like they're like you don't you can go to Venice on like a Wednesday in November when it's raining. Other than that, it's too packed. Like you can't go to the Amalfi Coast anymore. Too packed. Cinque Terre is the one you think you've been there before, right? We did the hiking and stuff.

54:29 >> Yeah, it was phenomenal. >> like you you basically need a reservation to come to the city. so like the the Americans have discovered everything. We're too rich, we're too wealthy, we know too much about travel. Everywhere is overcrowded. >> so this is this is genuinely part of the problem. Now it's a phenomenal problem. I hate that we even label it as a problem. I just don't know what other word to use. But Michael Antonelli, friend of the show, tweeted, so if you're in Charlotte, hey, I am in Charlotte, and you pay $1,000 a year for a Platinum Amex card, this is your lounge, which is currently completely full. So this is is rage bait, right? Like people hate the airport Lounge Twitter and blah blah blah. Okay, but but but this ties back to what you were saying. Josh identified this. He nailed it in 2022, October.

55:19 Josh wrote a book or a blog post which he turned into a book called You Aren't Supposed to See That. And the quote is and it's up but it's true widespread prosperity, it turns out is incompatible with the American dream. Now you might quibble with the language if you're taking it way way way too literally, but I think the point is 100% accurate. >> Right. >> When everybody is part of the club nobody's part of the club.

55:49 >> Remember the scene in Swingers when they they keep going to the parties and the one guy keeps going and it's they're packed the bars are packed and the guy goes let's get out of here and he goes yeah this place is dead anyway, but it's packed with people. That's what everywhere is now. >> You know when's the last time you seen that movie? >> I watch it probably once every year or so. I It's one of my top 10 favorite movies of all time.

56:09 >> I think I'm due for a rewatch. It's probably been a few years. The opening scene at the Blackjack table is just just the best. >> It really is. >> But but but but Josh is right and your observations this is this is this is these are champagne problems that we're dealing with Ben, but they are annoying nonetheless. What else you got? >> one other big announcement from Italy. I tried my first cup of coffee ever.

56:31 I couldn't I had to do it. >> Hell has Hell has frozen over. What What has gotten into you? >> so I every every meal out there people have like one or two glasses of wine and at the end they have espresso or something, you know? Yeah. They they everyone has it and they they look very appetizing. And finally I take a trip to Lake Como for the day, which I guess that Clooney guy knows what he's talking about. One of those beautiful places I've ever been to. I walk around it and that was actually off season which was nice. It was closing up for the season shortly. So I was kind of like the last one in. I walked around all day and I had a lunch and I went and had this fantastic lunch overlooking the water and the mountains and I'm sitting there by myself and I'm seeing this just beautiful scenery and I had a couple glasses of a wine for lunch and I'm feeling great.

57:12 And I The guy says, hey, do you want an espresso for dessert? And your check. I said, nah, I'm good. And then I said, you know, wait a minute. Yeah, bring me an espresso. Everyone has one here. It looks great. And so I got a little espresso and I thought you cuz I can do it like a shot essentially. I don't have to like sip it and enjoy it. And you know, it's got like the the creamy you know, it looks really good.

57:29 >> Yeah. >> that's great. Yeah, the best. >> And so I you know, I stirred around and I got smelled a little and then I just kind of sip it back and God, the taste I just I can't do it. >> You hated it. >> The taste was I hated it. >> All right, well two two two two two thoughts. Number one, you needed a cigarette. Come on, you're in Italy and you're drinking espresso, you need a cigarette.

57:46 But But number two, that's that's rough. I mean, the espresso is >> That's what my my wife said. My wife is like, you need like a latte or something. You need something with >> That's like that's like putting your kid on a motorcycle, okay? You need training wheels. You don't start with an espresso. >> No, I know. I I but I wanted it to be over quick. And the thing is I didn't like the taste on the taste was like, oh god, gross. But I walked out of that restaurant after a full meal, couple glasses of wine and an espresso. And boy, I felt like I was I mean, it did charge me up pretty good. I was feeling It was sunny out. I felt great. So it did make me feel good.

58:19 the only the only other thing is that just I relied on AI cuz I was traveling by myself. I had They had an itinerary for me, but I had some you know, time to myself. I used AI for everything. And I felt like I was almost overly reliant on it. And I used music a few times like try to rebook me a flight and and it did actually rebook me a flight and it it just makes things so much easier.

58:40 And that that's why everything is overcrowded cuz everyone's following the same prompts, I guess. But boy, you know, I have to find this train. Oh, actually when you sit on the train, sit on the left side so you see the water the whole way. And like it's just it's so helpful for that kind of stuff. >> Hey. >> It's perfect. >> Preach to the choir, my friend. >> And the other thing is someone someone sent me an email saying, hey, I lived in Italy for a while. Isn't it the best?

59:01 The people there they work just enough to enjoy their lives. Like that's all they want to work for. And I do think the people there just seem genuinely happier. Everyone is smiling all the time. I think they have it They just They have it figured out more than we do. They really do. They Everyone over there is happier than we are. I I really believe that. That they have whatever their their pace of life. We kind of look at them in like all these funny Europeans. They When's the last time they produced a trillion dollar tech company?

59:25 But they I think they have life figured out more than we do. I really do. >> Yeah. Yeah. Wouldn't argue with you there. Ben, we've we've we've spoken about this in the over the past couple of months. the action genre just being not in an awesome place. And really look no further than The Rock Dwayne Johnson's box office career. >> Oh, I've watched them all with my son. They're they're really really bad. >> I don't know I don't think I've seen any I mean I maybe I but I I don't think I've seen any of them. Although although Jason Statham with The Beekeeper and The Meg and whatever else whatever other he's making, he's still people still watch his movies.

60:04 >> Those are all like straight to streaming movies, but you're right that the action genre needs a reboot at some point. >> Once that once I'm sure there's been something that we're missing. Well, you know what? Maybe we just maybe maybe it's just enough. Like how much we did we did them all. We did all the Die Hards. We did all the Fast and the Furiouses. The Jurassics. Like it's you know it's just we're we're we're we're past it. I was I I I was scrolling through Netflix the other day. Look at the Look at the Look at the top five movies of the top 10 movies on on Netflix the other day. It was The Day After Tomorrow, A Dog's Purpose Christmas, which by the way maybe I maybe I can't touch this rail as a Jew, but I'm going to.

60:49 It's November. It's the first week of November. And everything is already Christmas season. We're doing that already. Target >> to the You're preaching to the choir. My wife is already decorating the house in Christmas lights. I said wait a minute. >> lights up. I guess what? I love it. I love Christmas. Great season. One of the best. But I feel like we're diluting it. If Christmas starts in November, then you're over it before it even gets here?

61:16 >> I agree. >> Okay. Well, I'm >> preaching to the choir here. By the way, we we we helped out with this top 10 because my family watched it day after tomorrow again. I feel like we watched that like 20 times. >> That's a banger. All right. Number three. By the way, was that the beginning of horrible CGI, the wolves in that movie? >> Yeah, it's not great. >> Okay. Number three, The Croods. Number four, Collision Course, never heard of.

61:34 Number five, Kidnap at Home. My god, Netflix movies are just dog Although, I will say I rewatched a movie on Netflix randomly. This is very This is bizarre behavior. It was Saturday afternoon. I found myself at home at 3:45. Logan is at a friend's house. Kobe is across the street and Robin is Who cares what she's doing? And I'm scrolling and I saw a movie that I vaguely remember watching a while ago called The Ritual. Fired it up.

62:02 It's not for you, Ben. But for for the 24 people listening that like horror movies, The Ritual is on Netflix and it's a banger. So, you're welcome. all right. One One thing I I forgot to talk about with with the Elon stuff. So, right after Seinfeld gave the audience permission to to not video, but to take pictures, we go into the Metropolitan Opera House and there's a guy next to me who is videoing the entire conversation like a total schmohawk of Ron Baron and Elon and I'm just thinking like, what are you doing?

62:41 >> Right. >> What are you literally and actually doing with this video? Sir, you've been videoing this for 45 minutes. Where's it going? >> Just enjoy the video. Just enjoy the talk, right? >> Bizarre. Ben, last week I have to correct the record. Not Not correct the record per se. I glossed over the fact we were talking about Pacino and you accused him of loving cocaine and I said, no, he doesn't love cocaine. That was just a character.

63:10 He was an alcoholic. I mean, obviously. He was He So, he did enjoy the substances, but he got it wrong. You know who did love cocaine? Michael Douglas. >> That is not surprising at all. That guy in the '80s, of course, he was doing cocaine as Gordon Gekko, I'm sure. >> Big huge fan of cocaine. >> okay, his his book is on my list. Is that a good one? >> Excellent. So he had a really sad life.

63:30 well, not sad. He had a very interesting life. So his son his son was a horrific drug addict, went to jail for a long time. But he had a very interesting interesting life. So his dad did nothing to help him. Obviously Kirk Douglas is one of the most famous actors >> Yeah, so his dad wasn't involved. >> His dad did nothing to help him. Michael Douglas basically I mean, I guess his dad's name got him in the door a little bit, but he he had to produce movies in order to like become >> I didn't know that that he like the surprising thing about him is he was a producer first then an actor.

63:56 >> Yeah, so phenomenal. I yeah, could not recommend that book highly enough. but I didn't want to show one one good quote that Pacino had cuz last week I was talking about how he had ran out of money a few times and he said the more money you make, the less you have. And I think that's spot on for a lot of people. Even though it probably sounds like a you know annoying to hear for most normal people, it's a fact. It's a not a fact. It's something that happens.

64:19 >> when you have that much fame and power and money, you like you almost have to like blow it to feel something. >> Right. >> Right? >> And also yeah, I think I guess you just assume it's always going to come in. All right, Ben, I want to share a quick story about a dinner that Robin and I went to over the weekend. So it came to my attention. We have a local newspaper called News Day where it listed the top 10 the top 10 restaurants steakhouse. I can't remember what the list was, but my dad sends it to me in digital form as he does. My dad just loves firing off articles. Yours too?

64:49 >> Oh yeah, of course. >> And my dad is a huge top 10 guy. If it if there's a top 10, I'm seeing it, okay? So I saw this thing. Huh. I don't want to name the name of the restaurant. I'm like, huh, that's weird. That's right in my backyard. I never never didn't even know that was there. So we so we got a last minute reservation and we walk into this place and it is straight out of the '50s, Ben.

65:12 There is there's there's there's carpet. Okay? There's carpet on the on the floor. There's there's there's like the the the there's like old art on the wall, the walls are painted. the chairs look like chairs that you would sit at at a catering hall, right? Just like super duper old school. And we got a steak and it was about it was about as bad as you might think it was. It was terrible. And I'm like I'm not necessarily a food snob, but like it was just I could make a better steak. It was not very good.

65:46 And then but the the place was packed. And the average age again not not to be an agist, but the average age was way older than us. Like we were the youngest couple in there by 20 years. And then Robin goes, oh no, live music. so I I look over my shoulder and I see a guy with the worst toupee I've ever seen. I mean it was just ext- it was the most cliché exactly who you think is in there. So the guy starts performing.

66:13 He's on an electric piano, okay? An electric piano. Obviously he's standing up there. And the first song he starts singing is It's a Wonderful World. And I said, all right, we got to get the guy out of here before this guy starts singing Neil Diamond. Check, please. Let's go. So we're walking out and we see a friends of ours walk in. And all credit to me. I've stuck my foot in my mouth a million times where you say something that offend somebody right away and you're like, all right, never again. So I've I've I've put my hand on that stove one too many times. And a half a second I said I was about to tell him turn around before it's too late, right?

66:49 >> do it. >> Yeah. And so before I could and I again I I really wasn't going to because it's just not nice. they said we love it here. >> Oh. >> >> So glad I glad I kept that to myself. >> All right, that's funny. all right, where we at? >> How much time do we have? Oh, we're oh, we're already an hour 10 in this. All right, yeah, recommendations. >> All right, I don't have a lot. I I just did a lot of sightseeing.

67:19 speaking of dinners just I had a I had just a fantastic dinner in Milan. Like after I did my book event, they took me out to this place way out kind of outskirts of the Milan and it was like we're like we're taking you to a place that you know the tourists don't go to. This is a place where only people in Milan go to. And they like you the Christmas thing you said they already had the place totally done for Christmas.

67:38 >> I mean that's that's that's acceptable, right? Like you're in Milan. >> oh yes. It was one of the best venues I've ever been to and just there really it's it's hard to beat a good dinner with people. That that's the thing I think they figured out there is just like just the dinner like everyone conversation flowing drinking wine. >> how long a dinner are we talking about? >> Oh two hours at least. >> How many glasses of wine did you drink?

68:00 Be honest. >> If I'm being honest every time I took a sip they were they're such good hosts there they were refilling my glass every time I turned around. So I >> when it that when it gets dangerous. >> Yes, but you know but they they kind of take it easy. So anyway so I just have a couple I watched some plane movies cuz I had an eight hour flight over there or whatever and it was they kind of felt very similar, but I have two movies for the plane list now for a long flight cuz there's a long movies. Project Hill Mary and you told me like that's an IMAX movie, but man great airplane movie.

68:29 >> I but I said I said that is that is simultaneously a huge screen movie and it's so it's so good it's probably an airplane movie cuz there's something about watching things in space on an airplane that just hit a little different. >> So I went right from Project Hill Mary into Interstellar and boom what a great BACK TO BACK. >> OH BEN I I FEEL LIKE THE VINCE MCMAHON MEME. Wait hold on before you get to Interstellar your thoughts on Project Hill Mary.

68:55 >> I I've read the book twice. I've seen the movie three times. I it's just >> Oh you've seen it okay. >> Oh yeah no it's a lot of of course I saw it in the theater >> Hang on hang on time out time out no offense. You read it twice you've seen it three times this is that's questionable Ben. It's a lot. >> I went to see it once with my son and then went to see it once with my daughters and then this is the third watch. And it's just and but yeah you know what I'm you're right for some reason being in a plane it makes the space thing feel more and so I went right to Interstellar after that and what a great back to back that was. It was perfect.

69:26 >> I >> to give you a hug. That that is that is you cannot have picked a better double feature for a movie. So, I told this story before, but I saw Interstellar. I don't know why. I have no idea why. I missed it when it came out. I saw it on an airplane. Obviously, that is a big screen type of of event, but I I cried. I cried in the on the on the airplane. I was weeping.

69:46 >> So good. And and you wouldn't think of Matthew McConaughey for that role, but he really does nail it. >> Oh, it's such a good movie. all right, what do I get Oh, I not much for me this week. I did watch I did watch Carrie, the 1976 version, the De Palma one. You ever see it? >> No, I've never watched it before. >> you know, it's it's it's okay. a young John Travolta is in it.

70:12 But the star of the movie is Spacek. I don't know if I'm pronouncing her name right, but she is the mom from Bloodline, and she's been in a million things. >> Right, she does. >> seeing her 50 years younger. >> Right. >> But I do want to watch I do want to watch the the show, so I watched that in preparation. >> How many times has that been redone now at this point? >> They they I think they've they've definitely redone the movie at least once.

70:39 >> Okay, not that you mentioned it, I probably have seen it before, but that's a freaky one. That that would might give you some me me some feelings personally even. Even though I'm dead inside. >> >> okay. What's the market doing? Is it up? Markets open? What's going on? Market is Oh, up again. All right. All right. Ben, any any any final words?

71:12 >> No, I just I'm having a lot of fun. I watching what's going on in the market, it's just this has been absolutely insane. I think if you're not enjoying this right now, you don't have a pulse. This is a great time to cover the markets. Just fantastic. I I like you said about like you being you say something and you're wrong immediately, like I kind of love that. How everything changes so fast. >> The best. All right, Animal Spirits at the compoundnews.com. Thank you everybody very much for listening. Thank you to Daniel Duncan, John and the entire production team. We love you guys. we'll see you next week.

71:50 >>