SpaceX Over, Fed Meeting Done, What’s Next?

0:00 The reality is that crypto revenue for Robinhood was down 47% in Q1, but everything else is doing ridiculously well, right? The platform assets are up 50% year-over-year. Gold subscribers up were up 36% in in Q1, probably going to continue to go up. They're rolling out agent trading to all users. They cut 10% of their workforce, which again, you're going to see that happening across the board, whether it's in finance, whether it's in software, whether it's in manufac- in manufacturing, once the humanoid robots come, workforces are going to get cut. And the thing that you have to remember is that is not bearish, that's bullish. Because money doesn't just disappear, money gets reallocated. And so, for every dollar that you save from an engineer getting fired, you're going to reallocate to marketing, you're going to reallocate to other areas, you're going to maybe reallocate to share buybacks, reallocate to the shareholders, reallocate to compensation to the top C-suite or the people that are left, and that's going to end up with more spending. That's going to be pretty good. I'm I'm fairly certain that we're going to all be pretty happy by the end of the summer.

1:10 >> [music] >> What's up? What's up, guys? Happy Juneteenth. It is Friday, June 19th. And I'm here today very happy, very excited because the market just absolutely ripped and then we got a holiday today. It's kind of nice. I mean, I'll wait for I'll wait for a few people to get on. I probably need to retweet this to make sure that people know that I'm live because we're coming to you now every Friday 1:00 p.m., 2:00 p.m., 3:00 p.m. It'll be one of those hours, depending on how quickly I go through all my work.

1:52 Good morning, jabronis. 173, how's it going? If you're not aware, we do have a chat on YouTube, also on X that that you can hop into, but it has been a crazy week. I mean, so much has happened. We've got uh you know, SpaceX ripping. We had our F- FOMC go on. We got Kevin Warsh finally getting up there, given given his presser. Sounding a little hawkish, but the market just market just doesn't care.

2:23 And that's sort of the beauty of the whole thing. The market is a weighing tool, as we all know. What is What does that mean? Well, we we sort of figure out what's going to happen in the future. We predict the probabilities of what the future is going to look like. We don't necessarily react to exactly what's going on. Wow, I did it again. Second time in a row. Killed a bug live on stream. Um but yeah, the market market reacts to what it thinks the future is going to look like. And so, for a while, up until you know, we actually got the the decision today and the and the presser the presser from Kevin Warsh, uh the market started realizing, "Hey, with rising rising inflation, rising CPI, we might actually get we might actually get rate hikes." And that started being priced into the curve. It started being priced in the forward curve. And the market, I think, struggled to go up for a little bit and had a few sell-offs because of that. Uh and then what ends What ends up happening is that you know, dot dot plot comes out, we're pricing in we're pricing in one hike through the end of the year, and the market says, "Well, that's kind of what we expected." And everything that's been driving the market, all of the mega trends that have been happening are actually continuing to happen. So, what is there to be worried about, right? If Intel keeps printing money, if Apple if Mag 7 uh keeps printing money and investing in CapEx, uh which it I mean, Mag 7's actually performing poorly, but that is specifically because of the dynamic that they're selling their equity, they're raising debt in order to fund CapEx build out. And of course, what's going to happen there is that their equities are going to struggle relative to the semi relative to the stuff that they're buying with those with that money, right? If you're going to If you're going to raise 100 billion through debt, through equity to go invest into data centers, you probably want to If you're investing, you want to go buy the things that they're buying not what they're selling, right? And what they're selling is their equity and what they're buying are semiconductors.

4:25 And so you kind of need to understand that. And I think that what's happening right now in the market is just a return a return to normalcy. It is we had a lot of fears in the market with the Iran war, uh rising oil, inflation, potentially earnings not going so well. And we've gotten and the SpaceX IPO being a liquidity moment for the markets, none of which really ended up materializing. And so now I think we're probably in a Goldilocks period, especially because things tend to slow down over the summer. We're probably going to get less major news. I mean, maybe we'll get an Anthropic IPO, maybe we'll get an OpenAI IPO, which we can talk about uh which we can talk about later.

5:07 But for now, what we're seeing is we're we're seeing things look relatively normal. We're seeing things look relatively good and I'm I'm pretty confident that over the next 2 months, at least until you know, August uh September, we're probably going to see continued performance from everything that has been performing so far. That's your Intels of the world, that's your SanDisks of the world, that's your Microns of the world. I mean, these things are just going to continue to rip it and I'm I'm honestly pretty excited to be to be in these positions over the foreseeable future. I mean, you're also seeing it across the board.

5:44 I mean, Hood Hood has started to do really well. We've talked about that on previous podcasts. I am continuously thinking that Hood is probably the better play rather than rather than Hyperliquid. I think Hyperliquid's kind of getting dragged down by the broader crypto complex or like held back by the broader crypto complex just because there's a lot of cross cross asset holders there. I mean, obviously I am I'm a I'm a Hyperliquid bull, but I mean the reality is that crypto revenue for Robinhood was down 47% in Q1.

6:16 But everything else is doing ridiculously well, right? The platform assets are up 50% year-over-year. I think they're at 400 billion now. Uh gold subscribers are up were up 36% in in Q1. Probably going to continue to go up. And they're rolling out agent trading to all users. They cut 10% of their workforce, which again you're going to see that happening across the board, whether it's in finance, whether it's in software, whether it's in manufac- in manufacturing. Once the human right robots come, workforces are going to get cut. And the thing that you have to remember is that is not bearish. That's bullish. Because money doesn't just disappear. Money gets reallocated.

6:56 And so for every dollar that you save from an engineer getting fired, you're going to reallocate to marketing. You're going to reallocate to other areas. You're going to maybe reallocate to share buybacks, reallocate to the shareholders, reallocate to compensation to the top C-suite or the people that are left. And that's going to end up with more spending. So, I mean, that's that's going to be pretty good. Uh I'm fairly certain that what we're heading into is going to be Oh, wow. We're getting we're getting some we're getting some good we're getting some good questions coming in. I'm I'm fair I'm fairly certain that we're going to all be pretty happy by the end of the summer.

7:32 Make sure you get out there. Make sure you get invested in the market. Make sure that you're invested in the in the right thing so that you can go spend your money on your for Remember, it's extremely important. Maybe the most important thing that you can do as an American to celebrate the 250th anniversary of America is make sure you spend your money. Make sure that your money gets injected into the economy and circulates and supports small businesses and get out there. Make sure that if you if you've made a lot of money this year, you're you're spending it cuz that's how the economy keeps going. If you stop spending, the economy goes down. It's really it's good for your bags, I think, to spend frivolously. It's actually a very good thing you should you should consider doing that.

8:10 Um But yeah, I mean, it's it's kind of interesting though. Regardless of what the market is saying, I haven't noticed I mean, prices are still going to even though people were talking about, "Hey, uh you know, oil prices are coming down and a big part of the CPI inflation was obviously oil prices going up because of the because of the Iran war." It's kind of interesting. I mean, I'm personally seeing the impact of prices in New York. I mean, you go you go to you go out to a meal now. I went to Joe and the Juice the other day.

8:47 Just like walking down the street. I love Joe and the Juice. They've got this This is not a paid ad. I just love them. They're great. They've got this new smoothie called the Miami Glow. It's blue. You got to love a blue smoothie. Now, I go in and I order a sandwich and I order a smoothie and it comes out to $38. And that's just nuts. I'm just sitting here thinking, there is inflate There is significant inflation in the market right now.

9:16 >> [snorts] >> And this is going to not This is not going to end well. This is not going to end well in 5 years, in 6 years, in 7 years. Maybe Maybe you'll see it reflected in the midterms. Probably not. Probably more likely to see it reflected in the presidential election if this if this keeps going. But people people that are not in the top half of the K, people that are not the you know, top 20 percent of of earners. I think they're still struggling pretty mightily out there and that's that's something to pay attention to.

9:47 That's as we've talked about on previous podcasts, probably the largest risk to forward market appreciation is is having a people realize, okay, wow, uh the the bottom half is really struggling and we're going to need to redistribute some capital. I mean, Andrew Yang was kind of on top of it from the from the beginning. You know, talking about how AI was going to introduce the need the need for UBI. And again, that's kind of what's happening right now is that AI obviously is sucking up a ton of the productivity and the top 10% of people are now 300 times more productive than the bottom 50%, which means that they're just going to suck up even more capital.

10:28 And that's obviously going to lead to I think some some issues, potentially some social but we don't have to think about that right now. That's that's that's not something that we necessarily have to have to worry about. I want to answer some some questions here. We've got we've got truth 2224 in the stream saying, "What do you think of STRC going down to 82.61?" I mean, so as for those of you that don't know, uh STRC is the Michael Saylor Bitcoin savings account.

11:00 Right? That it was issuing an 11% dividend to holders of this thing and basically the way that he was funding it is either by selling equity, so you know, he's sell he's selling his MSTR um selling his MSTR basically to accumulate a cash stack and then using that to pay out dividends, which is compressing the premium of MicroStrategy. And that that's tough because we're kind of in a spiral right now. He either is going to need to pause the dividend, which of course is going to send STRC uh down down even more or you know, he he's going to need to reduce reduce the dividend or he's going to need to sell an exceptional amount of BTC in order to cover his his debt obligations. And he's I don't know if you guys saw that um that viral clip that went around of Michael Saylor quite literally talking about how he used ChatGPT.

11:54 He used ChatGPT to construct the structure of STRC and that that in itself is just bad. That's that's obviously not that's obviously not smart cuz you know ChatGPT is just after going, "Wow, Michael, brilliant job. Like really really really smart. You for sure that's going to work. There's no way that this goes wrong." A little bit sycophantic. And so [snorts] I think what we're what we're experiencing now is we're experiencing the He should have used Claude instead of making notes. That's true. He should have. If uh if he if he'd used Claude, maybe we wouldn't have been in this mess. If he'd used Grok, we probably would have been in this mess a long time ago. And so ChatGPT might be the worst cuz it's like right in the middle.

12:36 If you we'd used Grok, we would have blown up. If we'd used Claude, this would have Bitcoin would have been at 500k a coin. Because we used ChatGPT, we're just cooked. Everything's just over now. So that's obviously not great. Uh I think that one you like the the the the biggest the biggest issue here is that he has no exit other than basically suspending his operations. And I mean what he could instead of just buying Bitcoin he could have used all that money to refinance his debt.

13:09 Like all the equity issuance that he's taken out over the last 6 months instead of buying Bitcoin, he probably should have just had the foresight to realize that a lot of this comes due in 2027 and we need to take care of it now. Otherwise, we're going to be we're going to be in trouble come come 1 year. And if we're going to have you know if we're going to have a a dividend that we need to pay out every you know at least bi-weekly or something like that, we're obviously going to need to raise cash to be able to do that and his response was just buy buy buy more Bitcoin buy buy buy more Bitcoin until it got untenable and he's like okay, I guess we got to go sell some Bitcoin now. So that's obviously not ideal and I mean if I if I'm you, I'm probably just not touching BTC. And that's kind of what the street realizes.

13:53 I mean look, Intel's Intel just ripped to all-time highs because they signed a deal with Apple, right? Uh to you know to to to supply them with chips and to actually manufacture even more chips in the United States. I mean the whole the whole semiconductor complex is just continuously up and what people are starting to realize is that things are coming back to the United States. Uh even though this Iran deal, which we'll talk about in a second, was not not great. Um it was it was it was not great for Israel. It was not great I think for the United States. It was phenomenal for Iran. Iran sort of ran away with that one. But even though we had sort of a snafu in Iran, the US economy is just absolutely you know rocketing ahead and there was this thesis at the beginning of the year which ended up being completely incorrect.

14:50 And that thesis was that emerging markets were going to do very well. The thesis was okay, emerging markets are going to this is 2026 is going to be the year of the emerging market and you kind of saw that like people were talking about Brazil, people were talking about Korea. And Korea's still done very well because Korea is exclusively driven by the one industry that is doing well, which is a semiconductor industry. The rest of it uh basically you know sort of fell by the wayside as people realized that the only place to invest in true innovation and what's driving the economy is AI, all of that's coming out of the United States.

15:22 And so, this is obviously, I think, what people need to be paying attention to is that the the United States is the place is the place to be, and that's that's strengthening the dollar, which is obviously bad for gold, it's bad for Bitcoin, it's bad for commodities in general, which again was like a big a big thesis for um a a decent amount of time. Uh you know, and and this is we're going to need to like reconsolidate.

15:51 I think we're going to need to reconsolidate assets back into back into the United States. If you're still if you're still exposed to that EM thesis, that's definitely definitely not where you should be. Um Uh the Iran deal was something that was born, I think, out of fear, right? Trump's sitting there and he's going, "Okay, the the main reason I think that he went into Iran in the first place is because he was riding high off of the Venezuela deal. He goes, 'Okay, I did such a good job with Venezuela. Uh I my advisors were so correct. Everyone was so right that this was that this was a good idea. I bet you I bet you that Iran's going to be a really simple operation as well.' And he realized that he sort of got stuck in a quagmire. It's like, you know, I I had greater faith in the Israeli intelligence services, I had greater faith in the the way that the Trump administration was going to handle it, and they kind of just didn't handle it uh properly. I mean, it sort of still remains to be seen because if you look, the entire leadership of Iran is taken out. It's potential, potentially they're they're governed more by moderates now, but generally across the board, um it looks like this this memor- memorandum of understanding, even if signed and moved forward, is not really going to advance the advance the interests of the United States or Israel in a way. It's definitely going to advance the interests of Iran. And what that means to me is that that means that that is a very untenable situation.

17:17 That's a situation that's going to lead to future conflict. And so, that I don't necessarily think that there's going to be future conflict in the next month or 2 months or 3 months, but potentially come September, come October, if if uh if things start to look shaky again, if Israel decides, "Okay, like I'm going to you know, if if Hezbollah decides to launch rockets at Israel, if Israel decides to respond, that's obviously going to torch the deal, and that's going to lead to another spike in oil prices, and that's maybe going to cause another tumble tumble in the markets, but until then, uh I think that both sides are right now Trump is really trying to put this behind him.

18:00 And so, even if this particular MOU as, you know, as the notorious big bull says, is cooked, uh I think that there's a lot of incentive from the administration right now, especially heading into the midterms, to make sure that this doesn't flare up. And then potentially after the midterms, we get we get more uh we we we we get another flare up, and that's going to that's going to send the markets probably send the markets tumbling again. But until then, I think we're I think we're good to go. I I didn't see if the uh already says this is straight up rumors close again, I didn't see that. If it is, type in the comments, let me know.

18:33 Um but hopefully hopefully not, because obviously that was that was a big boon for the markets. Maybe maybe there's more gyrations maybe there's more gyrations to come. Um Yeah, guys, I don't know. What else This has actually been kind of a slow week. Like what I'm really excited for is I'm really excited for the new uh for for diving into I sent I sent a note um to to Martin Shkreli, the king the king of biotech. I'm like, "Hey guy Hey man, like how do I un-retard myself when it comes to biotech?" Because there's this news that came out that Midjourney is releasing this device that's going to perform more scans than the entirety of all MRIs in the United States.

19:19 And I thought that was crazy. This is like the first time that I've seen AI actually be applied to a physical product as opposed to just coding. And this has been a big issue uh with with AI at least in my personal perspective. And David Orr tweeted out something like this that I thought was very very prescient. He's like, "Well, AI is really really just revolutionizing right now the world of software." And while I do believe that AI obviously is going to revolutionize a lot of different areas including drug discovery and it's going to power robotics and it's going to I I mean you saw with Accenture going down 30%. It's going to revolutionize the world of of uh drones performing work for consulting companies and investment bankers.

20:05 Analysts on you know, analysts are going to be on suicide watch soon. But this is like the first real physical product that I've seen come out that I thought was extremely compelling. I mean, just a very very very very compelling product. And the question is will it work, right? And right now we don't know. The you know, I have no idea. It might work. It might not work. But at least it's being tried. At least they raised 70 million for it to be tried and then you know, something like there's this a Butterfly Therapeutics which went up 33% on the news.

20:38 I mean, guys, this is like this is where we have to be paying attention to, right? If we know that AI is going to be revolutionizing biotech and we know that new devices are going to are going to come out. We knew that new new drugs are going to be discovered. We kind of have to dig into this. And >> [snorts] >> the other confluence here is that the FDA is a lot more lax courtesy of RFK than it's ever been before. So, on June Here's Here's Here's a stat. On June 17th, the FDA pulled a full U-turn on gene therapy and the stock called Unicure Huntington went up vertical 80%.

21:14 And I think this is going to start happening more cuz the FDA is more willing to bend itself for these new types of treatments that are coming out and I'm starting to research uh more companies that might actually uh benefit a lot from this. One of them being In Silico In Silico Medicine which is an In Silico It's based in Boston, Massachusetts. It's an entirely It's but it trades on the Hong Kong stock uh exchange and it is entirely an AI generated It uses AI specifically and only to generate new drugs and I thought that was very that was very compelling. It's sort of like a pure play approach to to what's going on. Um I'm pretty I'm pretty bullish on the on the world of biotech. I'm not an expert. I'm going to spend the next few weeks for you guys, the listeners, I'm going to dive in and I'm going to try to figure out the best possible place here, but one potential play cuz this is what George Soros says, this is what Druckenmiller says, this is what uh all these all these major guys say that if you have an idea, you got to allocate a little bit and then do the research. It actually is like a great way in my opinion to really make sure that you are invested in something is to put a little money on it. And so what I did is I bought ARKG which is Ark Revolutionary Genomics ETF run by our girl Cathie Wood.

22:41 I bought a little bit of that, put about 3% of the portfolio in in ARKG and I'm going to increase exposure to genomics. I'm going to increase exposure to biotech. I'm absolutely going to do it, but I need to do more research so that I can tell you guys what's actually going on in this world. Um So I mean we have we have all these we have all these forces swirling, but the reality is that when it comes to mega trends, you you got to you just got to hop on.

23:09 You just got to you just got to hop on and you and you got to you got to you got to make bets. And you got to ride the volatility because regardless what happens, even if you know, God forbid, knock on wood, if we go back to war with Iran tomorrow, that's not going to stop biotech companies from pushing out drugs. There was a There's sort of like a like a bad take on TBPN about this today that I saw bouncing around the internet.

23:37 I like the TBPN guys, don't get me wrong. They're they're they're good guys, but they come out there and they say, "Well, no, no, no, like what people don't understand about AI is that it it it actually probably isn't going to solve these health issues by itself. What's going to happen is what's happening with mid-journey, which is that some people get rich and then they reallocate their money towards solving these problems." And that's not what's happening. Like we are genuinely discovering new drugs. We are genuinely discovering new ways to monitor monitor health.

24:09 We are advancing the study of human biology and uncovering new things every day because of AI. Because the data set of humanity and biology is so massive and so large and so computationally intensive to uncover things that it's extremely useful to have AI. There's this There's this take that well, you can't, you know, you can't get new insights out of data that's already been analyzed. And what I'm trying to say is that's [snorts] actually the complete opposite, right? Is that there's just far too much data out there and it's kind of like the ocean. We have way too much data that we actually haven't really analyzed. And I'm going to need to go out there The comments are all saying, "You got to look at Jordy Visser.

24:59 I'm going to go watch his weekly videos cuz I do think that this is this is the next mega trend. And if I'm going to take a step back and talk to you guys about about mega trends. Like heading into the weekend, what you guys need to be looking into. There was an article in the Financial Times today uh or yesterday about the Trump administration nuclear bros. Terrible headline. They like to call everybody bro. This is like a huge issue. They're just like, "Oh, >> Yeah, the uh anything that the Trump administration does, anything that the conservatives do, it's just full of these like sketchy bros, crypto bros, nuclear bros, defense bros." I'm like, "Well, >> I don't know. Being a nuclear bro sounds actually pretty fun to me. I'm I'm kind of I'm kind of down for people innovating in the world of nuclear energy.

25:43 And what's happening is that there are a lot of new companies that are popping up trying to build new types of more efficient reactors, safer reactors, better reactors for nuclear energy. And that's going to drive not uranium prices higher because you can always increase production if you're mining. Remember, if you're mining an asset, you're mining a commodity, you probably don't and you expect the usage for that commodity to expand, you can't just look at the actual commodity price. Because it's it's possible that these companies, if demand goes up 10x, they invest 10x into their mining operations and they actually mine 20x of the actual commodity itself, which means that their revenue is 20x, but the actual commodity price might go down. There's just more of it being produced. That's how commodities work.

26:34 You can't You I would never advocate for anybody to bet directly on commodity prices except for gold, which has more of a steady rate. Like you can't just Like if you were to mine more gold, uh if you were to want to mine more gold, you really couldn't do that effectively because it's just the way the the way that gold is is there's you know, we're sort of a max capacity for that but now when it comes to things like uranium we're not like we could step up.

27:00 And especially obviously if Russia ever comes back online if we ever end that war that's going to be bad for uranium prices but it might be very good for uranium like companies that refine uranium especially companies in the United States. That's why you are a is so great companies that mine uranium will expand the revenues and this is this is really good because I think that there's going to be a nuclear revolution in the United States in the next call it 3 to 5 years and you're going to be very happy with your URA investment.

27:30 It's actually off a ton from the highs. I've just I like remember when I said that I de-risked a little bit and now I'm back in the market. I was buying uranium was buying you know, Intel was buying was buying the was buying the semiconductors and basically what I'm fully confident in is that that's going to be a massive narrative at some point at some point in the next 3 to 5 years and you're probably going to get a 3 to 5 x out of it so what I'm looking at what you guys probably need to look at heading into the weekend. You guys need to look at biotech. You guys need to look at nuclear and that's if you spend your weekend on those two things I think we're probably going to come out with some pretty interesting so some some pretty pretty interesting scenarios and I think that we'll probably make some good money and I do I mean we're probably going to wrap it up here cuz this is supposed to be a short stream today just like 30 minutes heading into the weekend talk straight at the camera talk talk to you guys. I do think that I'll leave you with this which is a very important question. So Jaws asked do you buy into the idea that capital wants to rotate from the digital world to the physical world?

28:40 Absolutely 100% it does and this is I think not only a reaction to what happened during COVID where everything moved online. Um this is just a general reaction to the way that the world has worked over the last 15 to 20 years. I mean basically since since Facebook got big, since social media got big, the vast majority of capital has been allocated specifically to the digital world and improving our lives digitally. And we've generated so much capital, we've generated so much wealth and so many riches. And what we've seen is we've improved our online experience.

29:16 But that's about it. Like you go out, you look around outside, what's where's where's the infrastructure improvement? The The United States is how like three x as rich as it was two decades ago in terms of GD GDP outlet GD GDP output? And when you look at the infrastructure, has it really improved that much? And I think we're heading back we're heading back into that world. AI combined with robotics combined with the the all the new dynamism funds that are coming out, we are going to see a radical change in the infrastructure in the United States.

29:52 We're going to see upgrades to the power grid. We're going to see Like I know this is silly, but things like Trump fixing DC in terms of the just the fountains. Like if you go to the fountains in DC, they're no longer covered with algae. There's this great park that I I actually grew up down the street from called Meridian Hill Park, which was just completely filled with drug addicts and there was there was this beautiful fountain. It was modeled after Paris.

30:15 And it was in total disrepair. I mean it was totally green, the water wasn't flowing. He comes in, totally fixes the whole thing, makes it beautiful again. He's doing the same thing with the with the reflecting pool. And I think that that's going to that there's demand for this. There's demand for the beautification of spaces. There's demand for in better better infrastructure. And I think with AI, with robotics, with all of the riches from the world of software, I think we're going to reallocate to the physical world. And not only that, we're seeing demand for IRL events. I mean, with the collapse of engineering costs, I'm seeing companies dedicate a lot more money to marketing.

30:54 And part of the marketing budget is actually IRL events. And people are really craving this. I mean, if you walk around New York, people are outside more more than ever. Every single restaurant is completely packed. The reservation culture is out of control, which we can talk about on a on another pod, but IRL is going to come back in a big way. So, maybe the last thing that you should do, which I'll leave you with, is as we head into this beautiful Friday, June 10th, just go outside, enjoy the weather, have a have have a great have a great weekend, guys. Um thanks thanks for tuning in. This was This was fun.

31:29 This was a nice little 30-minute monologue. As I get more comfortable with live streaming, I'll probably I'll probably go longer. But, for now, [music] I kind of want to go outside. So, I'll catch you guys later. >> [music] [music] >> Nothing said on the 1000X podcast is a recommendation to buy or sell any investments or products. [music] This podcast is for informational purposes only, and the views expressed by anyone on the show are solely their opinions, not financial advice or necessarily the views of 1000X media. Our hosts, guests, and the 1000X team may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.