Hawk Hurts Growth, Likes Hikes! Risk-On and AI Stocks Dump...NVDA HIMS IREN NBIS REAX MSTR STRC SATA

0:00 Hello everybody. So this video is entitled Fed Hawk. There is a hawk in Wyoming and that hawk hurts growth stock. That hawk believes in dogma where 2% inflation is economic science. And as a result of that he wants to hurt growth stocks. He wants to hurt growth asset risk on assets and AI. AI too. And you know what? He likes this hawk. This hawk likes hikes. He likes hikes very much. And that was just, you know, I don't know if I should call it weird or or strange or cynical, but the start of this speech was the oddest to to say the the least because the the speech started with Kevin Walsh reminiscing about beautiful hikes and hiking with his academic colleagues over the years in Jackson Hall, Wyoming. and frankly that statement aside from you know seeming like you know it would come from an ivory tower you know a bunch of academics go in these very expensive hotels one of the most expensive cities and go on hikes. you also have to realize that you know hike is the big figure of the market. The market is very fearful about hikes and he rambles three minutes about hikes. And so what was what was that supposed to do? Is was that supposed to be making fun of alos, making fun of Wall Street? Was it just not thought out? that he was talking about 20 years of nice hikes, but you know the hikes I suppose are his reward for hurting growth stocks and for hurting real estate because he did that today. He did that today. So the hikes statements at the beginning of the speech was the first thing that was off to me. Another thing that was off to me was his comment on real estate, which which to me was very off because he essentially said that he was happy with everything except real estate. That's the second time he says that by the way, but to me my my problem is that real estate is extremely important. In fact, it's in the US and the US is the country where it's the the least biggest part of wealth, but it is still the most major part of most people's wealth is still their real estate, their home. You take you take the average family, the the you know the average millionaire, it's all about their house and and and that's in a crisis right now. And we're now entering the fifth year of a crisis. And make no mistake, with mortgages above 7%, this is the reason why we have a crisis in real estate, right? And right after the speech, clearly Wall Street didn't like it, cuz the 10year went straight back up to that scary 4.7%.

2:49 you know that Bessant is trying to fight that, you know, the the US is very worried about. I'm worried about it. I think that's way too high. And and and talking about hikes for three minutes and, you know, making a play on wars with hikes and hikes in the mountains, making a play, I I I don't know how that was helpful. I absolutely do not think that was helpful. it came off really off. At least that's what I think. And I know a lot of people agree with my takes on the Fed. We have a lot of Fed lovers on this channel and that is fine. That is fine and you know disagreement can be healthy. The point is after after the Fed hawk after the you know hawkish statement clearly the market took a turn for the worse because yesterday yesterday was a good day right yesterday the odds of a rate hike were only at 35%. today. As of today, as of right now, at 400 p.m. Central time right now, the odds of rate hike are sitting at 59.7. Let's call it 60. 60% of odds of a rate hike. Nearly a doubling in the odds of a rate hike after one speech in front of academic colleagues and making jokes about hikes in Wyoming. yeah, it's it's to me this is this is just bad. This is bad for risk stocks. This is bad for growth stocks. This is bad for hyperrowth.

4:10 But is this a surprise? No, it is not a surprise. It's absolutely not a surprise. If you look at at the past speeches at Jackson Hall, they've historically been pretty bad for stocks. And I also want to say it could have been way worse. It could have been like 2022. So, is it bad? Yeah, it's bad. But it could have been worse. But it was still bad. And and and and you know, I had a glimmer of hope. I had a glimmer of hope, especially after the last fifth speech. People in the comment were saying were telling me, "Oh, no, he's was actually very reasonable. He was not a hawk. I think he's a hawk." Anyways, that's just me. It's it's it's it's it's okay. This decade I I I've given up of on this decade. This is a lost decade.

4:52 At this point, all of my investments are for 2030 and beyond. And and this is just a continuation of the same old same old with with a bluff from the Fed who doesn't who just doesn't want to drop interest rates. And so we we we end up having a market that is still heavily controlled by the denominator, heavily controlled by free men, purchase, bessent, and now wash replacing power. And that's that's I guess just just the way it is. But you don't have to worry about that if you can have a nice hike in the afternoon in Wyoming. I suppose I need to go on a hike myself. Anyways, let's talk about some of the pain that was created from this speech. And and you'll notice that most of the pain is due from after the speech. The stocks really started dropping after that speech. So the first company impacted that gave up literally twothirds of its gain after one of the most epic conference calls on Wednesday. That company is Nvidia. Like it it pretty much gave up two/3 of the gains that it had not not well the day before in the evening and then yesterday as well.

5:55 yeah, twothirds were given up and I guess maybe the market is just selling off something because there's going to be investment in AI and somehow a 25 basis point hike somehow would slow down the investments in AI. Maybe that's how the market's thinking about it. To me, this is nonsensical. I still cannot believe that Nvidia now at 217, right? At 217, Nvidia is still showing up in my spreadsheet as the cheapest B max 7 cheaper. I I find it cheaper than Meta. Nvidia is cheaper than Meta in my view. And I mean, it doesn't have the risks of Meta. It it it it just doesn't, especially when you have 70% growth, which is a supply constraint floor for the next 12 months at Nvidia. So So I don't understand why this stock is so cheap. The market is probably spooked by the 5 trillion market cap. That's the only explanation I can come up with. To me it makes very little sense but you know the the Fed hawk is giving us a dump in Nvidia's stock. what about what about HIMS?

6:55 HIMS is off topic. HIMS being down is off topic. They have they have a a recessionp proof product. They have an inexpensive product. They are in the heart of a secular trend. They're one of the cheapest providers in the trend. Most of you know their their eucalyptus acquisition. their investments. Most of them have been financed by a convertible bond which they got in, you know, was it in May of 2025 at near 0% for next to nothing that was over subscribed and the stock is down 9%. Off topic. Off topic.

7:26 It's just it's just trading as a basket. It's a growth stocks. Growth stocks bad and they're dumping the basket and so they're dumping a stock like he which is being dumped with the rest of the basket. but I don't see how rates impact him. I really really don't. So to me this is this is an opportunity. Now keep in mind you have to be brave to buy to buy stocks right now because we have September coming up and history in September tells us that it's not a really good month. And now that we have on the 16th we have another speech from somebody has at the Fed which may prove to be a hawk for the third time in a row. So so so I I don't look forward to yet another Wednesday. yet another Wednesday where stocks dump. It's just it the the 2020s have looked the same.

8:13 Like it's it's just it's just annoying. Like I said, I need a hike as well. Moving on, Neoclads. Talk about the Neoclouds. of course, a big debate yesterday was iron. Price drives sentiment in my view. So, iron was down 12 and a half% today. I I cannot possibly explain the bad sentiment. you know, if you go online, you you would think iron is like the worst company ever. and people complain about the call. I listen to the call. I think the call was fine. I think most people calling the call bad was was a group thing or or maybe a sentiment or maybe a feeling or maybe an emotion. But when I listened to the call, I I I loved the call very much. and of course people were spooked by the capex, but the capex is what excites me. It's not what spooks me. The return on investment is under two years at iron. So I don't have any problem with them investing in capex. But people get very emotional. I think some of the reason why people didn't like the call is because if you listen to that call at 1x speed, it was a very slow call, very slow pace, and it looked like it lacked enthusiasm.

9:24 But if you try to ignore the Australian accent for a second and listen to the call at a 2x speed or 1.75 speed, you'll find that they were much more excited than what it seems if you if you listen to it at 1x speed. So, so I think people analyze this and follow this too closely. They have the deals. They have horizon 2, three, four coming. They did telegraph so many times that December was going to be the big big month for them. December is coming up, but I guess December is more than three months away.

9:53 And so Wall Street doesn't really care about that. I guess that's my guess. But let's look at it another way. Iron was down 12%. Okay. Now, Nibbius was not down nearly as much. Nibbius was down more in midday, but it recovered. so, okay. So, so now the delta is is digging itself again. The delta between these two. So, now now iron is becoming much cheaper than Nibius instead of just quite a lot cheaper is becoming much cheaper again than Nibius. Anyways, that's not the point. you know, I want to call your attention to similar stocks. you know, they're collocation plays. So, a little bit different. You know, CleanSpark, for example, taking the route of triple ne triple net lease. perhaps closer to a read structure at one point. But the point is that these stocks are not too dissimilar from from an iron. In fact, in fact, iron is is, you know, they own their GPUs, but it's it's it's it's the closest to bare metal of the core of the Neoclouds, right? Nebus has a software suite. Iron doesn't have much. It's it's mostly bare metal. So, you could argue argue iron on the spectrum is perhaps sitting well, I don't want to argue that they're closer to Neoclouds, but but you you know, they're sitting closer to the collocation plays than say Anibius, for example. Look at the collocation plays.

11:10 They're all down 10%. I mean I mean yeah sure right it's down 9% but anyways cipher cleanspark 10% right it's down 10%. So iron is down, you know, 2.5% more. Can we really read anything into that? I I don't read much into that. Like it's it's it's it's not down that much more than the sector. the sector was dumped today. And in fact, if you if you look at the p the stock price of iron before the Fed speech, right, it was right right until that then you have this Fed speech starting around here and then boom, it's dumping. So, so, so again, I think these stocks are being impacted by the fear that these companies need financing and the market is worried about a 25 basis point hike, you know, which of of of course would influence the 10-year and the market perhaps more than the odds of a hike, the market is perhaps more worried seeing the 10-year behaving like this.

12:05 but, you know, maybe on maybe on Monday we have Bessent, maybe on Monday we have Bessent saying, "Oh, now we're we're not going to buy buy back four billion. Now we're going to buy back eight billion and then maybe on September 20th you know after after the power after the hawk after the hawk the wash after the wash speech maybe we'll have best say oh we buy 16 billion now because we know they have 800 billion on America's checking account that they can spend on buying back for bones. Anyways, this is all this is all so so uninteresting compared to focusing on the fundamentals on these companies. But unfortunately, the market doesn't help us much. Okay, let's talk about another stock that is being disrespected by the market. It's React.

12:49 And I guess the new name is is is Real Remax. The the So React is the ticker symbol, right? But the new name the new name of the company is Real Remax Group now. So I I'll call it Real Remax. and the stock is down. It's down for a few days, I suppose, but then it was up a lot last week. and why did it drop? It dropped because of a split. And there's there's a, you know, these splits have a bad reputation. Often these companies do splits because the stock dropped a lot as a result of poor business performance. This is not the case of React. The stock didn't drop a lot. It just was never an expensive stock to begin with. And as a result of that, they had to do the split. At least that is my take. I like the split.

13:30 I think it's a good idea that they did them. Now they become eligible to enter a whole bunch of different indices. They because they're more expensive now, they also may be treated much more favorably by a lot of brokers out there. You know, when a stock is trading at two bucks and 10 cents, a lot of brokers won't give you any credit for it, won't give you any margin, won't let you borrow against it in any way. That would change over time if they're trading in the 20 bucks range. So that that that 11410 split was a good idea. The stock dropped in my view because of interest rates and perhaps that's the more minor aspect because yeah over stocks dropped in the real estate sector but not as much as remax. I think it's also possible that this stock dropped because of the the ReMax founder death news which were very convoluted. If you look at the articles like like some articles were written in such a way that you would think that real remax lost its CEO which is not the case, right? The founder was older and she passed away and I guess she was successful at selling her company to a steward like real brokerage before she passed away.

14:34 So that was a real story but in the news media you you would almost think the CEO of React died in the news media and of course that's what the media does. They want to click. So, I don't understand this drop. because when I look at the real brokerage performance, they've had uninterrupted growth in the toughest real estate market ever. I mean, every year it's getting a little bit worse. We haven't we haven't had a 2008 style crisis in the real estate world in the US, but every year we get a little bit worse. Every year you have a little less transactions. You have a little drop in prices. You have a little more listing, a little more price cuts. And to to the point that now we're entering the fifth year and it's getting really really bleak out there. It's it's getting really bad especially in some markets like I mean not just Florida but there's a lot of markets where it's getting pretty pretty bleak. All of the hot markets of the pandemic are not doing well and worse in some other countries right I was you know you look at Canada like they have a condo crisis there etc. these rates are hurting. The market's hurting and and and that's why I I love React very much because if you look at their performance, the the underlying performance of a real brokerage, it's it's it's nothing but up. It's stellar. It looks it it it looks like so many so many com like it looks like a it looks like SoFi quite frankly like never a bump in the road.

15:55 always up, everything up in the right direction and the stock is just trading along with the whims of the market and the views of the market on interest rates etc. But the but the the underlying business is just growing and there's no bump in the road. So and of course why is React growing so much is because they attract all of the agents. And why do they attract all of the agents, the top agents? because they have a very advantageous commission fee where the agents have to pay way less commissions on Reacts than they have to pay with their legacy broker. And so they're moving away from legacy brokers, I don't know, Century 21, Hord Hannah, etc. They're moving away from those brokers and they're joining the real brokerage, which is an app, an app that runs everything without a brick and mortar broker. And if you look at the history of Remax, the company they acquired, Remax also thrived using that same playbook of keeping less of the commission, keeping less of the agents commission. So actually this merger is quite a good merger that they went through and you know granted there's a little uncertainty because we have to now wait for Q3 to see them report together and report their earnings together. So that will be interesting to see. Okay, moving on to something else that was way down today and that's strategy stretch bitcoin and seda. Seda being the digital credit of Strive and that's that one is unfortunate and we we have the Fed to thank for this. Of course, the ultimate risk asset is Bitcoin and Bitcoin was down 3% today and we had seen strategy outperform Bitcoin quite a bit over the past two trading days. and so you know I would have been happy to see the strategy down only 1% on a day Bitcoin was down 3%. I mean I mean we would have wanted that.

17:47 We very much would have wanted that to gain back the MNAV that has melted. Unfortunately that's not what we get. Unfortunately we got more than twice the correlation to the downside. So the selloff was more violent in strategy than it was in Bitcoin. And that's bad. And you know like I like I've always said I mean strategy will be fixed when when when when Bitcoin goes back up now strategy at 127 believe me is very much fixed compared to what what it was when it was trading the value of despair when it was trading around 90 bucks. I mean very happy with strategies trading around 130 bucks. This is beautiful.

18:27 but we still have a long way to go and that's going to take a while and and that's okay. you know, if you've held this stock for the valley of despair of the of 2026, which really started in in in no in October of 2025. If you've held this stock from October 20 until now, you've held for the valley of despair, right? And so and so what's another few months to get out of that valley of despair. In my view, we will eventually get out of that valley of despair. It's just that I don't hope for returns for I don't hope for very big returns in the 2020s. I think this is a lost decade and and and and and I I think I will be shown right a lost decade at least from a macro standpoint because you know we're the end of 2026 and we still have a hawkish Fed end of 26 still a hawkish Fed what can I say you know so anyways because of that unfortunately the digital credit deped and and I know pegging is the wrong word we shouldn't call it pegging we should call it u I don't know what you want to call it like more like a floor you know, it's not a stable coin. So, so DPEG is not the right word that that we should use.

19:31 That that's that's true. But, you know, the the the behavior mechanism when it works sure looks like it. but anyways, we we de we we we decoupled we decoupled from 100 on SATA, which is very unfortunate because SATA was running at 100 for the longest time. And you can see just just look at the trading hours, right? Right. Right. When the speech was over, market participants update their models. the CME Fed watch tool changes and boom, we crash and we lose 100, right? Same for stretch. Stretch, we're nicely at 98.

20:03 Boom. You know, Fed speech done, we lose 98 and and we lose a very unfortunate what was it nearly 70 80 cents, something like that. Very unfortunate. now the good thing is the fear and greed is finally in greed territory. I am so happy to not see it in extreme greed anymore. greed is better than extreme greed. Ideal would be neutral. Please, let's be neutral, you know. And it seems like like greed dropped because the price of Bitcoin dropped nicely at 77 $77,000 Bitcoin is still way too fast, way too soon, way too hard, but it's better than 81. a and and to me, Bitcoin needs to be careful about September. We all need to be careful about September in my view because September September September could be bad and so and so Bitcoin taking a breather. I look at it as a good thing.

20:58 Let's consolidate in the 70s like you know I'll take anything in the 70s. Let's just let's just consolidate wait a month a month month and a half and then I think we we will be on a much healthier healthier base. And if we could get the grid a little down more towards neutral that will also be wonderful. But of course you know what I want and what the market does. We don't control the market. We just we just have to deal with the market we're given. And lastly, I'll conclude I'll conclude with with a with a you know this stocks that actually should be impacted by this. If you if you look at stocks that would be impacted by higher interest rate, it would be a stock like Sofi, right? So SoFi as as a big personal lending division. They have they have you know big amount of loans and people borrow less money when rates are this high.

21:41 well SoFi out of all the stocks I covered today aside from Nvidia I suppose but Nvidia is not really fair as the largest company in the world but aside from Nvidia SoFi was actually down the least and the banks were up on this. Real me this I have no idea how how that is. This is not good for banks. Banks lend money. This is not good for him. Demand for loans is not very good. but anyways banks were up on this and and so far benefiting from this new bank. I haven't covered New Bank in a while. New bank dropping again. new bank mostly operating not in America but still dropping and so part of these drops have to do with the risk on basket unfortunately but you know so far so far was down the list but anyways if if you have a favorite stock you know it like and it's a growth stock and you watch this channel and and you like hyperrowth like I do it's probably down quite a bit I mean you look at you know look at PayPal 12% well they had idiosyncratic reasons why they're down but still look at Marvel down was it 10% it's all over all over the map down and it's it's just the It is. It's unfortunate. yep.

22:39 It's the It was the Fed hawk. The Fed hawk. This is This is what happened. So, so you know twice two two hawkish speeches. Are we going to get another hawkish speech in September? I hope not for our sake, but we never we I mean I I mean we can't know unfortunately. So, good luck to everybody with this madness. This was not investment advice. This is not financial advice. This is only entertainment. I'm hoping you're entertained. Please like, please subscribe, follow me on Patreon, follow me on X. Thank you for watching and have a wonderful wonderful