AMD Q3 2026 EARNINGS + SMCI, DUOLINGO & MORE | MARKET CLOSE

0:01 All right. Hello everybody. Welcome back to another market close. We've got AMD Q3 2026 earnings along with a few other companies. Finally getting a little bit of a relief day and I think it's actually going to be a legit relief day if in the next 14 minutes we can hold on to some of this green. but this is going to be a big one today. Neil, you are the resident AMD bull here. You've owned it longer than all of us. Unfortunately, Jose couldn't make it.

0:31 how are you feeling going into the print? >> so mixed mixed I don't know. Let me check what MD MD is still at. 490. So, if we were above 600 I would be probably stressed out of my mind, but since we have been pulling back quite a lot it's it's a bit a bit less of a price to perfection type of a type of thing. Although, yesterday is a greenish market for these types of days, but I mean we've seen what has happened last week. This market doesn't doesn't make that much sense. So, even if AMD does beat, which again, I I do think that they could or they will generate more than 13.1 billion dollars in revenue this quarter, the big question is going to be on the next one cuz the next one that's usually when Helios starts to pick up a little bit wrapping up Q4 start of 2027. So, street is looking for 16.14 billion dollars.

1:37 I think AMD to see a very solid reaction of the stock, they need to be well above it. I mean, they they don't need I don't think they need to be at 18 billion dollars, but being at 16.3, I don't think will cut it. Which is still good cuz it's an acceleration in growth, but the market being the market right now trying to figure out what would please it. >> Yeah, I would agree. I mean, this is not the same $600 stock that it was trading at a couple weeks ago. So, obviously it has taken a bit of a hit. The question now is does it follow the trend with all the rest of the semis as they've put up amazing results, but ended up going down. Tanner, your thoughts as we get into AMD's print and do you think the the meta muse CPU connection could really like scare the bears in terms of what the guidance could look like in the future?

2:28 >> I mean, I I don't follow AMD as closely as I should. Now, I I think that there will be or this will be a very good report and that AMD is going to show off high amount of CPU demand, like you said, because of things like muse. And mind you, they're not the only one that's seeing large success. So, CPU demand is going to be incredibly high. my understanding is the sell-off recently has been through a lot of Intel fears, but I actually don't know if they correlate as closely as the market's giving them credit.

3:03 but honestly, I'd refer to Neil or Jose. I know he's not here, but I I don't know what to expect from AMD. I've not looked at the numbers. I've not forecasted for that company. but hopefully this helps alleviate some fears in the market, but generally, I mean, this so far in the earnings nothing has really helped so far. Even even Palantir's numbers, even Apple, no one has been able to excite the market during this large sell-off.

3:34 >> Yeah, and contrary to Intel, Intel reported last week. again, I I still think there is a slowdown in the PC market consumer-wise, but AMD's data center business is just much better right now than Intel. So, that should should still be very very strong and we shouldn't have the same issues as as an Intel. AMD doesn't have a foundry business either. So, the gaming, probably on the pressure consumer side, probably I mean, client comp under pressure, but I think data center should should should do very well this quarter and the upcoming ones because we are expected to see an acceleration in growth.

4:13 Of course, the usual questions during the call will be about the exact figure for the growth rates and they'll probably say high double digits, but what does high double digits means? It's been a year, we don't know. >> Yeah, I I I I think the the irony of this entire market is, you know, the market's so upset about all the CapEx and capital that's being raised. Meta kicked off their bond offering today. They only wanted to raise 15, they got demand for 58 billion.

4:42 So, there's plenty and this is about 200 basis points above Treasury. So, like the there's obviously market participants out there that are ready to buy these bonds because they think it's a very attractive offering. but at the same time, the stocks for these companies are going down and all the money Meta were were to get from these bonds are going to be going to the Microns and Nvidias, AMDs of the world, but those companies have been stagnating. So, I think the midterms today getting that over with will be very important. Seeing what Trump's policy is on Iran, which we should know about in the coming weeks, will be very important because the stagnation across many of these semis given the earnings they put up.

5:15 The only way you can kind of quantify and make sense of it is if the market thinks the cycle is coming to an end a lot sooner than expected. And if that's not the case, which the CapEx from the hyperscalers are showing us that might not be the case. then maybe these companies put up earnings and actually get momentum and respect based on those earnings. Having said that, AMD's up 120% this year, right? So, no one who bought anywhere in that $200 range, many people, you know, buying below 100 over the past 4 years can really complain that much.

5:43 Tanner, any thoughts on SMCI today? >> yeah, this one is pretty interesting. So, SMCI, as most people know, did a preliminary business update, essentially showing off that they raised their expectations for revenue roughly about 4 and 1/2 billion dollars on the still a range. Well, what's funny is they do this update on like October 20th. They already know the numbers, but yet there's still a range that they put for both revenue and gross profit.

6:16 I went back and looked at the previous times that they've done these preliminary business updates and they've done it six previous times. Every single time we came in roughly about 1 to 2% higher than the high side of guidance on the revenue side. This time they didn't increase EPS, they increased gross profit. So, I don't know how to guide for EPS if there's going to be additional charges or something like this that they end up seeing like like operating expenses.

6:44 But, what we can see and and and I can even show this to you let let me showcase this really quick. >> >> So, this was before the update on guidance. We expected 14.9 billion dollars. And now since the preliminary update, Wall Street has actually changed their expectations to 16.2 billion. But, like I said, the actual estimate was 18.5 to 19 billion dollars. So, my assumption is we're going to come in somewhere around that 19 19.5 billion.

7:22 If that's going to be the case, we could see a company that's looking to almost 4x their revenue year-over-year. Last year we did 5 billion, this year they're going to look to do 19.5 billion dollars, which was the high side of their guidance. On top of that, they also said that the estimate was going to be around 12 to 12.5% versus the previous guidance that was 10.4 to 10.8%, which would show something if we were to see the high side of that guidance 2.4 billion dollars of gross profit. Year-over-year that was 467 million dollars. And so, you know, we're going to see more than almost a 5x on gross profit here.

8:06 Now, we know that this is mostly coming from their customer, which is SpaceX, and as Elon has said, you know, Colossus 2 might even be able to set up even more chips than they expected. If SMCI is a part of that, I'm going to look for that commentary in the call, and hopefully we also see guidance getting raised for Q4 and then into 2027, which as or sorry, SpaceX is expected to be the largest purchaser of Nvidia chips, and if SMCI is the one that's helping them set those chips up, actually building the racks, they could be a big winner here. But, obviously the market has taken good results and and done some pretty strange things with the actual numbers. So, we'll see what happens to the stock, I don't know, but I'm just talking about the financials, I expect good thing.

8:55 >> Neil, what is that catalyst you think AMD would have to report that defies the trend of Q3 earnings, which is good numbers are not enough? Like, is there something with Helios or something with CPU growth or PC growth that would have just have to get the street to be like, enough is enough, we have to buy it below 500? >> Yeah, good question. I think I mean, we we've seen companies report good growth, we've seen companies report good numbers, and that's not enough. Again, today you have the market that's a bit green, so maybe that might help, but who knows what might happen tomorrow. I think for AMD, it's purely to show the market, look, there is acceleration in growth, we are going to continue to see an acceleration in growth for the foreseeable future. If they can give us a real number, I think that would be great. but yeah, it's it's purely about the the growth ahead that they have to make sure that Wall Street understand that is it's not just them talking about this, cuz they've been talking about this for quite a while, but now is the actual moment where the business enters the acceleration in growth, so hopefully we do get some numbers. We already have some meet midterm numbers for them for I think 20 28 or maybe 2030 EPS-wise, margin-wise.

10:11 Maybe if that gets revised up, that could be great. But yeah, it's it's purely about them showing, "Look, we are about to grow quite a lot. This is how. This is when that this is going to happen, believe it or not." >> What do we think >> Yeah, I >> I'm sorry. I was just going to say, what do you think for pump or dump on on AMD? I'm curious your your sentiment versus what the market's shown us recently.

10:41 >> Again, if we were at 600, I would have said dump, but since we're under 500, I would say maybe we go back above 500. The problem is does does it stick tomorrow? That's the I don't know. But the initial reaction, I would let's say I would I would put it on a little jump. >> Amen. >> Yeah, I agree. I think if this was above 600, it'd be much easier to say dump because it's only taken a big drawdown.

11:08 Now, granted, a lot of stocks have >> Yeah. >> taken a drawdown going into the print, and they just go lower cuz this is what this market's been like, so. I mean I I I I just want to I agree with Neil, like the number that they would have to report would be so would have to be so strong that the market ignores all the issues right now with the broader semi ecosystem. And I think they can. I just don't know if this is the quarter they're willing to do that, if they're willing to put out guidance for next year, or if they're going to save that for Q4.

11:37 And that's what I think this market's going to have to figure out after their print. We also have Arista today. we have Toast, we have XYZ, we have bookings. There's been a lot of conversation with them and Agilent apps that have emerged. We have A lab, Astera, Navitas. That's up 8% on the day, so there are a lot of other companies, obviously AMD and SMCI the big ones here. but we'll be covering all those. AMD comes out at 4:15. For those that are going to ask, I'm sure we'll have to remind people, but it's at 4:15, so for the first 15 minutes, we're you're not going to have these numbers. We'll have pretty much everything else. We also have Duolingo.

12:13 but at 4:15 we'll have more of those numbers. Tanner, any thoughts on the little rebound we've got today and and little bit of relief? Do you think it's just something technical that kind of needed to happen given the weeks of dumping or you don't trust it either today? >> we're so close to a big decision here tonight that I'm I'm not ready to say, "Okay, well, this is the this is the time that it's going to turn around before that you know, before we have any sort of information about the election. So, you know, I'm not ready to say anything like that. I'll let you close the market.

12:47 >> All right, Tuesday, November 3rd, 4:00 p.m. The lease stock market is now closed. >> >> All right, and now we wait. SPY ended 754.44, up about 0.31% on the day. AMD up about 3.65%.

13:19 We've got Booking, Toast, Square, Block, Navitas, Alab, Anet, and SMCI. Those numbers should be out very soon. And again, AMD is at 4:15. So, we'll get those numbers in about 13 minutes. >> Dude, I saved you that time. You sent me into a question during the close. >> Dude, honestly, I I didn't realize it was 4:00 p.m. >> >> No, I had no awareness of the time. I was like, "Okay, Tanner, here's a question." I was like, "Wait a second.

13:44 It's 4:00 p.m." >> >> No, that was good on Tanner's part. That was great. >> I got in trouble last time, so >> >> But, what's it called? Yeah, we should be getting the numbers. Let me double-check the actual times for each company. >> We got Duolingo. That's up 10%. Don't have the numbers yet. well, we should if the street's reacting. >> SMCI looks to be coming out at 4:05 and AMD at 4:15.

14:15 So, they'll be spread out. >> Okay, Duolingo. I don't have it. I have Amgen. They beat by 12% on EPS, 645 versus 578. Revenue 10.3 versus 10.06 billion. Amgen is down half a percent. Revenue was up 8% year-over-year. EPS was up 14% year-over-year. Don't have the Duolingo numbers, but obviously the street likes it as it's up 10% right now.

14:49 Yeah, nothing. It's a very quick reaction to no numbers across the screen. 9.3% on Duolingo. Don't have AMD, don't have Booking. Booking's is up three, but don't have numbers on that either. Toast, we don't have those numbers even though that's up two. Block, no numbers. Navitas was up 8% of the day, no numbers on that either. Arista Networks and Arista Labs also a little bit of movement after hours, but nothing there. And SMCI, I think it's in a couple minutes.

15:17 >> Most companies I'm seeing here, Toast, Block, SMCI all coming out at 4:05. >> So, Duolingo's daily active user growth is accelerating to 29% year-over-year. All key financial metrics coming in ahead of expectations as well. That's the only thing I see here on the news release on their own website. >> the DAU growth was the biggest issue with them for the past few quarters, right? And MAU growth, so if that's that's in a better spot, then that's good for them.

15:53 >> And just general sentiment, right? >> Yeah. >> of people just thought that they would be replaced. >> Okay, so we got about 2 minutes, folks, and that's when the numbers should hit. Duolingo up 12. Okay, they missed by 4% on EPS, 54 cents versus 56 cents expected. EPS is actually down 91% year-over-year. Revenue, they beat by 2%, 309 versus 303. Revenue's up 14% year-over-year. These aren't the most amazing growth numbers, but the stock has been taking a pretty big hit so these DAU numbers are more in line with back to re-accelerating growth. That's probably why you're seeing the bounce right here.

16:32 Yeah, triple missing up 10%. I guess street cared about users. And it looks like that ended up beating. Duolingo up 12% Alteryx, I don't have their numbers. This is a lidar robotics play if I'm not wrong. That's up 4% after hours. Don't see the numbers, but that is green as well. And the next minute we should get everything else.

17:08 >> It's quite crazy. Like if Meta reported something like a Duolingo grow twice, this thing would be down like 30% or so. >> Yeah. Yeah. bookings is down seven. This a lot of speaking of Meta concerned about views and other agents potentially disintermediating these aggregators like booking. I do not see their numbers, but stocks down six. Should be getting many more of these numbers.

17:38 >> Skyworks Solutions also down 12 and 1/2% in the after hours as well. SMCI up seven. >> Okay, SMCI Tanner, I'll let you find those numbers. Bookings was 460 on EPS versus 450. That's a beat by 4%. Revenue missed by 7%. 8.8 versus 9.54. EPS is up 17% year-over-year. Revenue is down 1% year-over-year for booking. Navitas, is that moving? SMCI I don't have the numbers.

18:11 >> Go ahead. >> nearly 20 billion dollars in revenue. so yeah, Wall Street was completely wrong. They beat by 23%. EPS came in at $1.81. Expectations were $1.23. That beat by 47%. Revenue 4x year-over-year. up 80% quarter-over-quarter. And EPS 5x year-over-year. And they're flying. >> That's even better than their guide, right? Their preliminary guide. >> That was better than their guide.

18:43 >> Stock's not going crazy crazy after hours, but it is up 2%. Dell is up half a percent as well. HPE is up a little bit. SMCI with a pretty monster beat right there. Up about 1.2%. Alab after hours is down five. Arista after hours is up seven. >> Both going the opposite. >> SMCI by the way seeing fiscal year net sales to 82 billion. That's up 10 billion from the 72 guide they put out.

19:18 I mean, that's incredible, dude. >> That's insane. >> Astar Alabs they beat by 12% on EPS 132 versus 119. Revenue 84.9 versus or 584.89 versus 550 expected. That's a beat by 6%. EPS is up 169% year-over-year. Revenue is up 154% year-over-year. So that's why Arista is getting this momentum right here. Alab had to be the opposite. Oh sorry, that's why Astar Oh no, those are Yeah, those are Astar's numbers. Wow, those aren't good numbers for Astar to fall 7% beating revenue by six and EPS by 11 right there. I don't have Arista yet, but that's Astar Alabs. That stock's down five. Navitas beat by 25% on EPS.

20:01 -3 cents versus -4 cents expected. EPS is up 40% year-over-year. Revenue 13.9 million versus 13.5 million. They beat by 4%. Stock's up 4 and 1/2% after hours. It was up 8% during the day. Navitas with a double beat on the top and the bottom. AMD again still waiting till 4:15. Go ahead Neil. >> No, I'm just looking at SMCI. It's only up 4% after beating these estimates by 20 and 40% or so. I mean, what does I guess I guess the market really is in a I don't trust anything AI related mode right now.

20:45 >> The the SMCI Q2 second quarter guide street thought it would be 16.5 they guided to 21.5. I mean this server rack business Dell had similar numbers like this last quarter they beat by 20 billion SMCI is beating by 10 billion. I mean these are just incredible numbers. SMCI now up seven after hours. >> Genuinely I'm not actually too offended with how stocks are acting after hours is a lot better than what we've seen in the last couple of weeks.

21:17 I don't mind this. This is better than Amazon reporting earnings and going down 12% on great numbers. >> Yeah, but meta was up seven and then we know what happened. >> True. >> Arista beat by 11% on EPS 120 versus 108. Revenue 3.65 billion versus 3.3 they beat by 10% EPS up 60% year over year revenue up 58% year over year. We are in a networking super cycle. Arista right there up 5.7% on the day. It was up 3 and 1/2% as well. So Arista really getting some love there closing the gap a little bit it was down seven now it's only down three.

21:56 Dell's up one SMCI is up 6.4 Navitas is up six Duolingo is still up 11.2. We got five minutes until AMD. >> I mean I agree Tanner. I mean overall these numbers to start off earnings compared to yesterday also. I mean I know yesterday some of the price action wasn't the best but the numbers are pretty damn good. Even the companies that reported yesterday Apple and Palantir had amazing earnings. Even if the stocks didn't really react.

22:29 Trying to see the presentation for SMCI. I don't know if it's out yet. Let's see if we can get some coverage here on SMCI. >> It raised. Also, margins 12.8%. That's much better than the street was expecting. And don't forget at 5:00 it'll be the first call from the new CFO Mark Long so we should get a lot more color about that as well. >> Good point. well, going to the release for Super Micro, the founder, president, and CEO of Super Micro, Charles Liang, saying that Super Micro's transformation into a total AI and IT data center solution provider continues to accelerate delivering record revenue.

23:09 DCBBS is driving significant value for our customers from gigawatt-scale data centers down to a single container pod which including our expanding software, proactive service, and networking solutions is enhancing profitability and long-term shareholder value. >> All right, just watching Super Micro folks in the after market bouncing around but to the upside. So was just >> pretty good print by SMCI. We got AMD in 5 minutes, folks. You can put in the chat pump or dump.

23:40 What do you think? I mean, if it's going to report in this after hours where you are actually seeing the market reward some of these companies. If AMD puts up the right numbers, and maybe they get rewarded as well. 486 right here. As that's a path for saying Toast they beat by 16% on EPS, 29 cents versus 25 cents expected. Revenue 1.98 billion versus 1.97. This is a fintech. Toast is down four. EPS is up 80% year over year. Revenue is up 21% year over year. Again, fintechs just haven't been the strongest. These are relatively good numbers on the top and the bottom.

24:16 But the stock down 3.7 year-to-date. Toast is basically flat. It's down 1.4% this year. >> Yeah, they've had a wild year. They were at I think Oh, no, it's a little outside of the last year. They were at a high of $50 per share back in August of 2025 and then fell all the way down to 22 bucks and then trying to make that recovery. >> Allster's revenue fit >> Yeah.

24:49 That's true. Allster 59.3 million, that was up 50% year-over-year. They shipped 27,000 sensors. Lidar was about 27% of the units. Gap gross margin 43%. They lost 14.2 million. >> And looks like they beat on their core metrics. So, Allster right there up 5.3 after hours. >> All right, it's up to Lisa Su now. >> Yeah. >> It is up to Lisa Su.

25:21 >> 2 minutes. >> Before we got 10 or another two we have you here. What what do you make of this Lumentum Marvell deal? >> No. >> >> So, I'm a shareholder of Lumentum. I'm not a shareholder of Marvell. perfectly fine with them getting acquired if that's what ends up happening. I think them being able to offer their services to more customers and being able to to purchase more at scale and being a part of a larger organization, that could be amazing for the business.

25:55 The biggest problem that I have, and I'm not even 100% sure how to read into it, is the fixed amount of that deal is how many shares they're going to get of Marvell. And the deal does not close until you know, midway through 2028. And so, all the success of Lumentum between now and then is like the stock's not going to move on that news because essentially all we're going to look at is how's Marvell doing because I'm going to get four and a half shares of Marvell per share.

26:28 So, I think this is it still needs shareholder approval and I'm I'm curious what you guys think both stocks ended up falling on this news both. Is this even going to get shareholder approval or is that the that's the sign that this is likely not going to get voted through. >> I just think it's going to be a long time to figure this out. >> Yeah. It's it's so like such a strange cuz usually you don't see both companies drop so much in one day.

27:04 but yeah if Marvell falls it basically costs Lumentum shareholder. I don't know if it resembles or or not but the the price action that we've seen when Corel we wanted to acquire Core Scientific. I think we've also seen something strange there. Eventually the acquisition did not go through. >> Yeah. >> But yeah it was also stocks dropping trying to find a a price where okay >> AMD should be up by the way.

27:38 >> Yeah. >> AMD >> is >> initially fell too then it went up. No numbers yet. >> revenue came in at 13.4 billion dollars beat by 2% Wall Street wanted to see 13.1. And EPS came in at $2.09 beat by 8% so revenue 45% year-over-year EPS up 74% year-over-year. Revenue is up 16% quarter-over-quarter.

28:09 Is that good numbers there Neil up revenue 13.37 billion? >> 13. >> 37 >> The market was looking for just over 13 so >> Yeah 13.1. >> guess but then again I think AMD's own guidance was 13 >> Oop there it is 500 so there's your pump. >> Yeah 13 plus minus 300 so I >> guess they're in line with their own with their own one. But, what was next quarter's guidance?

28:42 >> we have next quarter 17 billion versus 16.2, which is also a beat. >> Yeah, okay. So, that's that's okay. >> Pump it up. These are pretty good numbers, dude. Adjusted operating margin 29% versus 28. CapEx 648 versus 647, basically in line. I think it was two quarters ago or maybe it was last quarter where the CapEx was way >> ahead of expectations and that also took it down a little bit. gross margins 54%. Q4 guide beat by about 700 million.

29:08 Revenue 13.3 versus 13.09. EPS beat by about 15 cents. I mean, >> Yeah, I don't think these are bad numbers by any stretch of the imagination. Stock's up six right here. As it goes green, let's get some coverage on this, but this does not look like a report that should be sold off based on these numbers. >> See on its bottom line, earnings per share of $2.09 versus the $1.95 estimate. Quarterly revenue ahead of the street at 13.38 billion. The estimate was for 13.1. And take a look at the data center segment sales, nearly doubling year over year and coming out ahead of consensus at 8.5 billion, up 97% year on year. A different story for client and gaming sales, which were down about 8% year on year. And if we just break out gaming specifically, that business saw sales decline by around 40% due to lower semi-custom and graphics revenue. if we take a step back and look at non-GAAP gross margins, in line with the street at 56% and sort of a mixed fourth quarter guide. It does see sales coming in at 17 billion. That's higher than the 16.2 estimate, but gross margins expected at around 55% slightly below the street estimate of 55.3, but sort of pulling hairs there, guys. we will look for more comments on the PC market specifically. They don't They don't break out that line item. So, we'll have to wait for CEO Lisa Su to address the PC market, what they're seeing there at 5:00 p.m.

30:40 Eastern when the call begins. >> Yeah, certainly of course so you think of Intel and what they told the street. Seema, thank you. Seema Mody on the sock as I Seema mentioned. >> Okay, so we will keep diving into the numbers. Stocks up seven after hours. Neil, I imagine you think this is exactly what the company needed to do. >> Yes, but the call is where you were going to get more questions about 27 and onwards, probably also memory prices, how that impacts AMD, what they're doing about it, etc. So I don't think the PC market is going to be such a such a big topic for them in this call because again data center is just much much bigger for them.

31:23 Trying to I'll go over the the tread the transcript the press release and maybe the presentation once that's up. and then we could maybe look at some more things, but so far so good based on the numbers that we have. Then we will have to listen to the comments because they matter more. >> I I find it funny that Go ahead. >> Sorry, Glenn. >> Oh, I I was just going to say it it's funny that Intel is up 1.7% on this news. Like dude, this is not about you.

31:55 Like >> >> you guys had your chance to do this. You didn't. Let's not act up now. But Nvidia's seeing also 1.3% up. Unlike Intel, we're yet to see this one, you know, so expectations should get you excited about Nvidia, but we've already seen Intel. They've had their chance. >> I mean Go ahead, Neil. >> Yeah, no, I'm I'm looking at that the per segment slides here, so revenue for the >> it on the Is it on the website? Can I pull it up or >> Yes, I'll send the link. Send the link.

32:34 This. >> I mean, it's helping every semi after hours. So far, this has been the print that's actually getting the rest of the market excited. >> On the right side, you can click on slide presentation. >> Okay. >> >> Okay, here we go. okay, so revenue is 13.4 billion versus 9.2. The guide again was very strong as well, up 45%.

33:06 Year over year. Lisa Su said, "We delivered a record quarter with a revenue exceeding the high end of our guidance as data center segment sales nearly doubled year over year. Demand for our Instinct products continue to strengthen and we continue to grow and accelerate further in our fourth quarter as we scale Helios and Venice production. With our leadership product portfolio and deep customer and supply chain relationships, we are confident in our ability to sustain very strong revenue growth and expanding profitability over the coming years."

33:29 CFO said third quarter revenue grew 45% year over year to a record 13.4 billion while non-GAAP earnings grew 74% demonstrating significant operating leverage as data center business model scale. Our fourth quarter outlook reflects accelerating revenue and earnings growth driven by strong demand across the data center portfolio. Neil, any core slides here that are getting your attention? You are muted, sir.

34:01 >> Of course. the data center segment on page 14 is basically showing the strength of the business margin-wise also going the right direction and that's exactly what we want to see and basically that's what that's what we've seen with Nvidia early on, so it's nice to see that with with AMD. So, revenue up 97% year over year, operating margin went from 25% to 20 to 34. It's also up quite a lot quarter over quarter, so definitely moving in the right direction and it's getting better from here because Helios is ramping up, so very, very nice.

34:40 >> I love that the stock movements today are actually reflective of today's earnings reports. It's actually nice to see that AMD, SMCI is Duolingo also green? Duolingo's also green. The companies that reported good numbers are getting good activity in their stock price after hours. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow morning that'll be the same, but so far it's much better than what we've seen over the last couple weeks with also other companies that reported good earnings.

35:12 >> Micron's up after hours, SanDisk is up, Astera's almost break even, Navitas up two, Anet's up seven, Dell's up two, SMCI holding on. I feel like this AMD print. Now, is there anything that different in this AMD print than some of the other semiconductor earnings in terms of just strength and momentum of the data center business? Not Not really. I mean, it's a great print, but a lot of companies have had good prints. I just think the magnitude and the scale of AMD is probably what the street cares about, which means, you know, they're obviously going to care about Nvidia in a couple weeks.

35:44 But definitely not a definitely not a print where you would sell off the semis I'm thinking that the build-out story is over. >> I think there's been some prints maybe Intel is one of them where expectations were set extremely high and they were not met. expectations were set high for AMD. They're meeting them and it should really start to ramp next quarter. So they're they're they're doing quite well here. >> Yeah, and the embedded business, although it's a small one, it's it's growing again, 29% year-over-year.

36:21 And margins have gone from 33% to now 41%. It's It's a small business, but it is a very very profitable business for the company that has been under pressure over the last, I would say, almost 2 years now, but if it gets even if it gets half a billion dollars in operating income just from that segment and that's growing, that's I'll take it cuz the climate gaming segment gaming is down, client is basically flat year over year, margins there are down which is something that I guess we have to deal with at the moment. But when you have data center and now embedded ramping up a bit, I think I think AMD is very very well positioned. And I I would say that if the stock would have been at $600 plus right now, I think the stock would be down actually.

37:09 Because we will have a scenario where maybe too much is priced in. But since we're not at 600, I guess we'll take the the little jump today. >> Do you Neil, do you agree with this? Someone says gaming will pick up with GTA 6. Do you think that's catalyst? >> No. >> No, because you can go to a computer store and spend $1,700 on a 5060 that won't be able to run it. Right, Amit?

37:40 >> That's true. You could theoretically >> the prices are too high and you're going to get a a potato for a computer and you still won't be able to the benefit. And by the way, GTA 6 comes out for console first. >> Yeah, exactly. You would buy the console. Like the the the problem with gaming is the same problem with the PC. It's just things are way too expensive right now. So why would why would someone pay for for a regular PC or laptop that just costs suddenly like 50% 60% more than than usual? And yes, you you game on a PlayStation or Xbox, whatever.

38:19 >> Yeah. And it's not that you should be spending $1,700 on a 5060, but you know, sometimes Best Buy really gets you. >> What's Best Buy stock doing? >> It's it's up on the year, dude. And now I know why. Now I know why. This is a it's got like one of those built-in direct CPUs. He doesn't even have an AMD chip in it. It's like the one that's running off the motherboard. Go ahead. Sorry. >> This is Stacy from Bernstein with the with commentary on the results.

38:49 >> rating and a $650 price target on AMD. Stacy, good to see you. obviously stock's been you know, along with the rest in the penalty box. does this get it out? >> maybe surely it'll help, right? I mean it it's it's taken it on the chin after Intel's results. If as you recall, that stock's been down a ton. they had a very poor client revenues. PCs markets have been in a lot of pressure given the the memory dynamics and there were there were tons of worries that AMD would suffer the same fate and it's actually looking a lot a lot better. AMD's client revenues did come in a little light, but I don't think that is shocking at all and I they over delivered versus what Intel did. In the meantime, the data center business, which is what everybody really cares about, is is really over delivering.

39:34 They they came in something like $300 above the street. And then the revenue guide for next quarter is is well above consensus. I don't know the relative mix of data center and client in the guide at this point, but I think it's unlikely that data center the implied data center number is going to disappoint given where the overall revenue is. and if client is a headwind, it's it's the rest of the business is strong enough to to buy I think more than overpower it. And again, this is not something that their larger competitor necessarily saw.

40:03 >> Yeah, clearly the guidance into the end of the year is is very different from what Intel gave us, Stacy, but in terms of in terms of what AMD can say about the PC market, in terms of what AMD can say about the pressure of of memory prices rising into the next year, do you think they can escape the headwinds that that Intel is facing? >> Yes and no. I mean, they probably can't escape it. That's a market issue, but it's a less of an issue for AMD. You have to remember like in in Q3, like the client group for Intel was almost half their revenues. Like for AMD, it's it's kind of upper teens. And as you go forward, AMD has more data center drivers. they're still over delivering on servers. Intel's manufacturing footprint right now is still a little offside, and so they're having a hard time getting the revenue to to supply the demand and they also had that that Israel issue that that cost them some data center revenue.

40:54 AMD's not suffering any of that and they also have the ramp of their new Helios MI450 product which should be starting now and drives growth into into next year. And so given all of that the client piece of it is just a much smaller piece of their revenue than Intel. I think it's a lot easier for them given the other drivers in the business to to work through it. >> So what do you most want to get some color on here? I mean given the fact that you know the entire group has been punished because of the sort of longer term concerns about pace and sustainability of of spending and and all the rest of it. What reassurance might you be looking for?

41:31 >> Yeah, I think there's a there's a few things. I'd want to see what they they see for their own server CPU growth because the the whole like AI gigantic CPU story has really been pushing a number of names in the space. I'd like to see if they have any further revisions to their views or they've been very positive. Secondly, I'd like to see sort of the pace and trajectory of this MI450 Helios ramp. Again, this is the quarter Q4 should be when it really starts.

41:55 And they've got a number of big wins that should be ramping next year and so what is the shape of that look like? And then thirdly, I'd like to get a look at gross margins next year. The the guidance for gross margin was a little light. They they guided 55 and a half. We were at 55, that's where they guided. I'm sorry, the street was at 55 and a half, they guided 55, we were at 55. The the the AI GPU business does have lower gross margins and it's got a it's got a lot of memory content as well and like even even other players like Nvidia haven't been able to fully offset the the memory cost inflation. So I'd like to see where they they want to decide to put gross margins next year. But I'd say given what we're seeing right now at least in the Q4, the the margin trajectory at this point looks okay to me.

42:37 But those are the three things I'd want to hear on this on this call. >> Okay, so so I'm just curious Stacy because it seems like that their their customers have not escaped investor skepticism even after reporting earnings and so to to that extent do you think that this group just gets continued to be caught up no matter almost no matter what they say and just the concerns about the hyperscalers their ability to finance a build out that you know, the ability of it or the willingness of investors to finance that build out.

43:05 >> Yeah, you have to remember at least for AMD a number of the the ramps they have into 2027. They actually gave warrants for those which which I don't really like but but I do understand. Like I always said like Lisa had to be on the rockets after she bought her ticket. And the value of the warrants that they've granted in some sense are almost equivalent to the value of the the parts that they're selling. So I'm not really worried about like the the AMD the ability of their their named customers to finance at least the AMD trajectory at this point. I think for the broader universe this this is a concern like the numbers have just gotten so big.

43:38 You know, people worry about financing. They worry about power and I I I think we're just going to have to over the next several quarters just just see those build outs happen and hopefully get confidence. And so I I don't know what AMD can say to move sentiment on that one way or the other. I will say however that the only ones that really seem to be worried at this point are are are investors. The companies that are actually out there in the mix of this and actually doing the spending and doing the deployment. They do not seem terribly worried at this point.

44:07 >> I got to be honest. I'm a huge I'm a huge fan of Stacy Rasquin. I know that he's been critical of AMD in the past but he's got a $650 price target on the stock. I don't think that's something to hate on. He also has a $400 price target on Nvidia by the way. So nearly 100% upside from here. whether or not you're a a fan of his commentary like I am, we can all agree we are huge fans of his mom and that's definitely important. Analysts are saying she has it going on. Back over to you Amit.

44:44 >> What? Fountain of Wayne? >> See, there's going to be a lot There's going to be a lot of people like Neil that are like what are you saying? I get it. But Neil probably has no clue what you're saying. >> Huh? >> Do you want to explain the joke to Neil? Cuz he he obviously >> Stacy's mom, Fountains of Wayne. It's a It's a song. She's got it going on. >> Yeah, okay. I mean >> All right.

45:12 >> I >> I can't wait for you to come to America to experience life on this side. It's a lot of fun. >> I mean, I've been to America quite a lot actually. Well, you got to listen to the music while you're here, man. I I am. I have listened to American radio on GTA. What do you mean? >> There you go. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I got the joke, but I still I still think there's a bunch of people that didn't get it. But, it was good.

45:39 >> enjoyed it. >> It was good. Block is up 7%. Here's the results on on Block. >> Adjusted EPS came in at $1.13. That's ahead of the $1.03 Wall Street consensus and more than double where it was a year ago. That's really the payoff from this year's layoffs and cost cuts. Now, revenue coming in at $6.72 billion also topped the $6.59 billion estimate. Gross profit, really the number that Block guides to because Bitcoin sales can swing its revenue, came in at $3.24 billion versus $3.16 billion that was expected. That's up 22% from a year ago and faster than the 18% that the company guided to. Adjusted EBITDA of $1.23 billion also coming in ahead of estimates, but it is a miss in its merchant business. Square's payment volume came in at $76.36 billion. That is short of the $77.25 billion that analysts had expected. A possible sign of growing competition from the likes of Stripe and Toast. For the fourth quarter, Block is guiding to adjusted EPS of $1.15. That is right in line with the street. So, really the big question when the call kicks off at 5:00, is this a sign that growth is cooling or just Block being more conservative? And and real quick here on Cash App, guys, it's up to 60 million monthly transacting actives. That's 1.5% higher sequentially, but we did see cash app gross profit jump 27% from a year ago. Something that we'll also be sure to hear likely from CEO Jack Dorsey on the call. Those shares still fractionally lower now.

47:11 >> Yeah. >> Okay, so >> You know what? I just checked. I'll allow it. >> Thank you, brother. Also, I take back everything I said. I'm not trying to start fights with my European, you know, neighbors over here. As a Canadian, can't believe I said come to America. I'm closer to you now than I am a minute. You know. >> Okay, so AMD. It's a tough crowd.

47:42 >> Nvidia's is up after hours. Micron's up after hours. Here's the question for everybody. We got the call in about 25 minutes. Is this the print that starts to mark the bottom for semis? AMD up almost 9%. Neil, we'll start with you. What are you thinking? >> Is there anything else bigger than AMD this week for the sector? Probably Probably not. No. No, probably not. So I want to say yes, but I Honestly, I don't know. I don't know what the market is looking is looking for cuz What's in next week? We have Nvidia and I too feel like Nvidia's printing like a very, very good report could change sentiment a lot more.

48:31 Purely because it's a AI cloud, neo scalar, whatever people want to call it. And the big questions are around these companies. I think we have Iron this week on Thursday. >> Yep. >> >> Yep. >> So then you have Nvidia, you have Core Weave, and I think these companies can change sentiment a bit more. Even though it has nothing to do at an AMD runs its business one way, and your cloud runs its business another way. But could AMD be the one that that turns things around for for their sector?

49:02 Maybe. Yeah, maybe. But I do think Neo Clouds will have a lot to say this quarter despite them being quite small players in this whole in this whole story. I mean, Coreweave is quite big. Nebius is getting very big, so but yeah. >> I think the main overhang for me right now is just you know, midterms and then what's Trump going to do with Iran? There There's There's so many uncertainties there even outside of the semi trade. So, I don't think it's a matter of AMD or Qualcomm or any of these names this week. I think it's just how is Trump going to react to midterms if it doesn't go his way and you know, how will will that affect oil prices and stock markets if you know, he he continues to escalate with Iran.

49:58 >> But >> I agree with you. sorry, brother. I Just one last thing. I I agree that I'm I am looking forward to Coreweave, Nebius, and man, I'm so sorry. You go ahead, Amit. Sorry, my apologies. >> What what What what's your issue? Just talk. >> to make an Iran Iran joke about them being the third Neo Cloud and that Trump I couldn't figure out how to make the joke work, so I I I bailed on it. You go ahead.

50:31 I was going to say why is Trump fighting with the Neo Clouds? It wasn't going to make sense. Iran was threatening chemical weapons. >> It should have should have ended your glory with Stacy's mom, I think. >> >> She peaked. >> Yeah. Yeah, so sometimes you leave on a top, but anyway, what I was just going to say is to your point >> That's what she said. >> Yeah, Amit's never been on top. >> >> I just saved you there, bro. I just saved you. There you go, you're welcome.

51:03 You're welcome. >> God, so good. I'M AND I'M BACK. >> >> OKAY, GO AHEAD. >> OKAY, AMD what I the fact that this stock's actually getting a 9% move after hours, it's the only semi, right? Is there another semi that's got in this type of a reaction that's actually a big large cap? So, I don't know. I think that along with the if the midterms go the opposite direction and the market just hates it, maybe this reverses. But if not, I feel like that's a pretty important print and maybe that marks the turning point of how the market's thinking of the semi trade, but to your point, you know, what happens with the Iran? No one has the answers to that and that's why it's hard to to call bottom here.

51:49 ANET 10.4%. Wow, this was up five. Now it's up 10.4, so this one's flipping as well. SMCI, that should be above 8%. That is up not well, SMCI also with AMD up nine. SMCI is obviously a much smaller company, but I mean, this is this does not feel like any other day in Q3 earnings so far over the past couple weeks. >> Yeah. >> This is almost everything besides Toast is green, which is pretty decent.

52:20 Duolingo's up 12, Bloom is up. SK Hynix, is that up after hours? Hynix is up two and a half, Micron. All we needed was Lisa Su. I guess that's what the market really needed. >> Yeah. >> Tan, are you thinking about another joke right now? >> Yeah, dude, I'm I'm just going to be over here. >> The Stacy's mom was good. It was good, you you know?

52:53 >> Yeah, I'll find a joke for all of us. so, yeah, the AMD calls in 20 minutes. We'll be able to have the stock price and everything on screen as well, so that's good. And I'm pro- I'm probably going to secretly be listening to the SMCI call while that call's going on. So, hopefully I can post some things in chat for those that are looking for quotes for SMCI. >> You you own SMCI, right? Like personally.

53:24 >> yeah. >> Okay, so that's why. That makes sense. >> But AMD's more like AMD's super important for the market. I just, you know, personally for my own portfolio. Yeah. >> Coreweave, that is up 2% after hours. Navitas up 15. Okay, so Neil, you are you are like well experienced with these calls. What would Jean or Lisa have to say that you think would tank the stock or reverse a significant amount of these moves right here? Cuz they already gave a a good guide, right? So, what could they say?

54:01 >> Yeah, and the guide, I think maybe I'm wrong, but I think it's the first time that it's plus minus 3% instead of plus minus $300 >> Mhm. >> I don't think it makes that much of a difference, but it changed. margin-wise, I think Stacy said it's margin-wise, what are we going to get? Cuz I think for next quarter, it's 55%. This quarter was 56. What happens in in 2027? Do they see gross margins pick up again or stay around the the same the same area? I guess maybe if we get some negative comments around memory pricing, that could affect their margins, which is something that we've heard Nvidia say.

54:43 maybe that might hurt hurt the stock or if they do not provide sufficient information on the big growth that they're seeing, maybe that's that's that's what the market might not like, but look, the numbers are are what the numbers are and then so far, so good. >> There's right now a 74% chance, according to call sheet, that midterms will go towards the Dems for the Senate and 94% chance of house control right now.

55:24 >> Dude, I wonder if I wonder if this AI trade like let's say the Dems sweep house and Senate, even if with a small majority, I wonder if markets actually go down today, like or after hours. We'll know by like 10:00 p.m. Eastern. I kind of think it's priced in. >> Del Ben Del Ben data centers? >> Yeah, because just in general you know, data center sentiment will go down. I don't think realistically they can especially cuz the big beautiful bill is out there. I I think that scenario is already priced in is my point, so I really wonder like will the market be upset? versus what if what if the prediction markets are wrong? What if it's not a blue wave?

56:04 I mean, I wonder how green everything goes overnight if that also happens. But at its core, if the election is over maybe that's enough for people to move forward or for the market to move forward. >> Yeah, and it's not just a win, right? Like it's still the the market will still react if it's you know further out like a a Democratic sweep, but like I mean, not just 51 to win in terms of a percentage, but I mean, you know, a much much larger percent. So, I think the market will react to depending on which side wins, how much they win in terms of both the Senate and the House.

56:49 >> Yeah, cuz the the prediction markets I get the polls have already told the market for quite a while that the Democrats take the House and the Senate. Might clarify something for me. Do you guys do this every 2 years? Or every like how does the Senate and House votes thing thing work in the US. >> It's every If I'm not Yeah, it's every 4 years if I'm not wrong. So, it was 2018, 2022, now 2026.

57:18 so, it's 2 years into a presidency. So, the presidential election is 28, and then the next midterms will be 2030. >> Oh, so what happens then? >> Go ahead. >> So, no, because during the presidential election, you're also voting for something extra? Well, or something >> Well, some set some Senate If If I'm not wrong, a Senate term is 6 years. Some of those expire during the presidential election. So, there's also voting in different jurisdictions and municipalities outside of just the presidential election, but there's still midterms every 4 years.

57:57 >> Why Why not have the midterms at the same time as presidential elections? So, you have actual 4 years of maybe trying to get things done instead of presidential election, 2 years in, you're trying to do something, then the last 2 years you might get screwed because maybe the midterms are not going the president's way, and so they're trying to block everything the last 2 years. Like, I feel the system is made so there's no progress that can be made.

58:25 >> Well, I mean, the system's very weird, but America argues it's the best version of democracy that's out there. So, basically, if the Dems sweep the House and the Senate, Trump will have executive authority over every policy that gets put out. And if Trump you know, if Trump doesn't like what the Dems come up with in the House and the Senate, they're going to have to negotiate, which is what happened in 2018. And theoretically, the result of that will be gridlock. That's what happened with Obama in 2014 when he lost the midterms, and basically, for the last 2 years of his presidency, he could do nothing.

58:58 >> So, what happens >> what it what it's like. Yeah, conclusion is we get gridlock if the Dems win, and nothing really happens. But, if the theory is that Trump, which is what people have been saying, wants to escalate the war in Iran because he knows he has 2 years left and he can't do anything in Congress that's where things could get theoretically bearish, right? >> Okay, but >> Cuz if he can't pass any major bills and he just goes rogue I don't think that's going to happen though. I think he knows enough that this is like gone too far.

59:31 if the Republicans win, we all get 5,000 bucks. So that's the benefit. >> Hypothetically, yeah. What are you doing with your $5,000 a minute? >> I'm going to buy a 5090 GPU. >> >> That's a good answer. That's a good one. >> Yeah, as as people are saying right here, gridlock is actually pretty I mean, stocks have gone up under Democrats and Republicans. It's not as polarizing as people make it seem.

60:03 Certain industries might not thrive under certain layers or under certain types of governments, but it's not like it's all >> But even even that like my point was going to be it doesn't really matter. Like it it's it doesn't matter. Stocks have gone up no matter who's in the White House red or blue, midterms, schmidterms. Like if you look at solar panel players, they've done extremely well under Trump's first term. How does that make any sense?

60:33 it it's it's just a business. It worked well and then the Chinese players went in and these businesses got destroyed. This whole midterm thing like I've seen the stats oh pre-midterms market are shaky, not good. Post-midterms market goes up. How does this affect a business like AMD or whatever? It like it it it doesn't. It doesn't. >> By the way, Neil, to answer your question, the elections are every two years when they happen in the middle of a president's four-term year of office, they're called the midterms. So some >> >> Senate terms go longer than different House terms. So every two years it's just referred to as midterms in the middle.

61:16 Like in the midterm of the president's term, but it's every two years. >> Yeah, I've said that and to me it seems like this is made so progress can technically not be made. >> You're not necessarily wrong about that, but the I guess the founding fathers would say it is the best way for any progress. And that's why, you know, when Trump in 2024 got the House, the Senate, and the executive branch, it was really important. Just like Obama in 2010 when he got the House, the Senate, and the executive branch because that's the one chance you have where you have as much control as you could possibly have, especially if you have a supermajority, and you can pass policies. I mean, Biden had control of all three in '22, but it had a very slim majority in the Senate, so they barely got the Inflation Reduction Act passed.

62:05 So, Trump used all his political capital basically on the big beautiful bill, which is very AI-friendly, and the question is if he loses in the midterms, you know, how much support will he have to get anything done for the next two years? >> Yeah. >> All right, let's talk about AIN now. AIN's up 15. I don't know what they said in their guide that's causing this. I'll try to get some numbers, but looks like that's up.

62:35 >> Yeah, they're up 15 and 1/2%. Novitas is up 6%. SMCI is up 8. Well, 8% and AMD is also up 8%. It's a really good it's a good after-hours. >> As I'm saying, that's that's why I asked that question of do we think it's a turning point? Because if this actually fades away, I mean, it is going to be similar to everything we had in October in terms of just no momentum's been able to be held.

63:04 If this actually flips and the elections are over and AMD's print was so good and AIN's print was so good that the market can go back to being in love with these capex names. You know, maybe we move forward from there. I think you know, here's another question to people. How How many people are a bit more worried about allocating capital in '27 to the CapEx beneficiaries? Neo clouds, memory, server rack companies, etc. How many people have lost zero confidence about those are going to be the winners next year?

63:36 And how many people said, "Well, if Google's trading at 15 times, you know, maybe that's a better bargain." Cuz I think there is a significant amount of institutional and retail investors that have started to question the trade. Now, stocks V-shaped to the moon tomorrow, obviously people just pile back in. But if we have more depressed price action or even stagnating price action, I wonder how many people will just say '27 might not be the year for Sandisk to go up another 6X and you know, they would just rotate their funds into different areas.

64:05 >> I think the idea that we get like some year of you know, everyone agrees with the same thing and consensus like we just have it >> >> and and we're all tied to earnings, that's not going to happen. I think next year is going to be similar to this year where we have multiple large drawdowns, but >> But but that did happen this year for the first 5 months. Like it was semis or bust for the entire for for the majority of January to June, right?

64:32 >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Until it flipped. And and and those gains, as much as you know, many of those stocks have taken 50% retracements, but they were up 3 4X, but they're still up so much for the year. And I think like I wonder at Moderna is the only one that entered into the top 10 because of the results in September, but I wonder you know, January, February of next year, what are the top 10 performing stocks in the S&P? Is it still the AI bottleneck names or do we have some companies that I mean, I I don't think that many people thought all the AI bottlenecks would dominate the S&P this year.

65:06 What if next year it's a it's a different sector? Or what if, you know, the CapEx momentum is so damn strong with these companies spending so many trillions of dollars that the market has no choice but to give Micron some love and and once again outperforms next year. >> And I posted something on X today where you see 43 semiconductor stocks that are down over 40% 40% or worse since the 52-week highs.

65:36 It's quite a lot of quite a lot of names. You have applied materials, KLA-Tencor, Applied Materials, Intel, ARM and so on and so forth. So Marvell now as well. So you do have quite quite the drawdown in the sector already. Now of course some of these names were just too expensive. Lots lots have been priced in but there there has been a huge correction in the sector.

66:07 Now going into 2027 the the strong companies I guess look way more interesting. >> Something happening to POET? >> Sorry. Dude, I we haven't looked at POET in a while. It's up 2% after Well, I think I think it's up just cuz AMD is pumping everything, right? This was a $25 stock this year. I mean that's how crazy May, April, and June was.

66:43 >> Do you guys have any problems investing in that company or like POET? Yeah. I I think for me you know what's funny is I'm invested in SMCI and I kind of sat with what they did and some of the concerns that people had around that business and I said, "Okay, well the company is making changes." I'm curious if POET has also made change. I'm not following them at all but versus whenever they were reaching out to creators and telling them to pump stock and everything. I don't know if you remember that.

67:16 >> Yes, indeed. >> Yeah, I just it's hard to trust it. I mean There's a lot of these names. Like Neil, this thing you shared today, do you think many of these names are opportunities or do you think they deserve to be in this 40% drawdown? Cuz like Cerebrus it's probably an opportunity, but like I don't think it deserved to ever go as high as it did, right? >> Correct. Yeah, also Sentis Sentis is also split in half from the old from the 52-week highs.

67:48 I mean, if you look at the list, there are a lot of these names where I say, "Yeah, maybe maybe they should be down that much." Marvell is down 46. I think it went up quite a lot after the Jensen comments of it being a trillion-dollar company. But some some are just better companies than others and they just participate in this huge drawdown and that's where you have overcorrections and opportunities to buy to buy more. It's the same with the new cloud sector. I'm pretty sure if I put up the the same picture for for the new clouds and you'll see also a huge Thank you. You covered it this morning. Cypher was also at a 20 $20 stock, $25 stock. Now it's five or seven, something. So when you have a sector-wide overreaction or maybe not overreaction, sector-wide drawdown, you will have overreactions in certain companies in that sector and and that's where you just go and you pick up the good ones cuz the good ones usually rebound way faster than the rest.

68:55 >> Yeah, and I think the nuance of the cycle has been everything's been thrown into the same bucket, good or bad, right? And that's why it's just been so violent across the entire semis. So it'll be important to see what happens after this print. Yes, thank you for letting us know every congressperson is up for election every 2 years. I'm not the best at political science, okay? I do not understand. I I know like the basics of the legislative and judicial branches, but I'm definitely not an expert on that. So, yes, every 2 years and every senator has a term of 6 years, which makes 1/3 each election.

69:35 And I definitely don't know anything about the parliament system. That's what it's called, right, in Europe? Parliament? In Canada, I don't know what it's called. >> I think we just call it the same. >> I think it's the same, right? Parliamentary system in Canada? >> Yeah, we just hire whoever's coolest. Whoever's the cutest little kindergarten teacher. >> >> All right, well, that was a joke for the Canadians.

70:08 Maybe not the liberal Canadians. I I Anyway, all right, let's move on. >> I got it. This one. what's it called? AMD? >> Go ahead. >> Go ahead. >> >> I was just going to say AMD's call is in 2 minutes. Yeah. >> Yeah, I didn't get that joke, bro. >> Justin Trudeau was a kindergarten teacher.

70:41 >> Oh, he was? Oh. >> Yeah. He was a kindergarten teacher and now he's dating the ring Canada. Our our most proud prime minister. >> You used the word proud on purpose here, I see. Mhm? >> I don't even know that reference, so maybe not. >> Dude, how long was he the prime minister? Like a decade, right? >> Yeah, a long time. I think like 8 years. >> Is that the max, 8 years you guys are allowed? Like the US?

71:13 >> No, he just Mark Carney got in. We didn't like Trudeau. He bowed out himself, I think. >> Mhm. >> Yeah, but genuinely I follow American politics more than I follow Canadian politics and I live here. Yeah, and I think that's also why the midterms are such a big event in the United States because you know, we have elections every 2 years, but when they coincide with the presidential election, like the midterms are a paradigm shift between or I I should say it's a referendum that could turn into a paradigm shift on the current administration. So, although we have elections every 2 years, in the midterm elections, it's like, okay, is Biden doing what he said he would is Trump doing what he said he would is Obama doing what he said he would. That's where the country basically comes together and says either yes or no.

72:02 And that's why I think today's going to be really important and obviously the market's going to pay attention because for 2 years we basically have had anything goes in terms of deregulation. If that ends up changing, then obviously we got to see how the market reacts, but I don't think it fundamentally changes the trajectory next year. >> Did Did you have an anything goes scenario cuz I remember time and time again, oh, bill is not going to pass, bill might pass, might not be late.

72:28 So, felt felt like things of the last two year was it Yeah, almost 2 years have also not >> Well, the the the Supreme Court was a big check, right? >> Mhm. >> And that's what changed certain things. >> Call's not on just yet. but did you hear that >> This is a Yeah. >> Yeah. >> This is a This is a great graphic, so people will be able to see exactly what the price is doing.

72:55 >> Yeah. >> I told Marshall to make the text freaking huge. >> >> but yeah. Or we can just look I guess we don't even need the the call. We could just do that, but maybe that looks sillier. Okay. >> All participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad.

73:29 And please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to Matt Ramsey, VP, financial strategy and IR. Thank you, Matt. You may begin. >> Thank you, and welcome to AMD's third quarter 2026 financial results conference call. By now, you should have had the opportunity to review a copy of our earnings press release and the accompanying slides. If you have not had the chance to review these materials, they can be found on the investor relations page of amd.com.

74:02 We will refer primarily to non-GAAP financial measures during today's call. The full non-GAAP to GAAP reconciliations are available in today's press release and slides posted on our website. Participants on today's conference call include Dr. Lisa Su, our chair and CEO, and Jean Hu, executive vice president, CFO, and treasurer. This is a live call and will be replayed via webcast on our website. Before we begin, I would like to note that AMD will participate in the following events with the financial community this quarter.

74:36 The UBS Technology and AI conference on Tuesday, December 1st, and Barclays 24th annual global technology conference on Wednesday, December 9th. Today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on our current beliefs, assumptions, and expectations, including forward-looking statements regarding financial projections, business and industry trends, that speak only as of today, and as such involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

75:10 Please refer to the cautionary statement in our press release for more information on the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially. With that, I will hand the call over to Lisa. >> Thank you, Matt, and good afternoon to all those listening today. The third quarter was the largest and most profitable in our history as we began ramping our next-generation data center products. Revenue increased 45% year-over-year to 13.4 billion driven by record epic and Instinct sales and strong embedded growth.

75:43 Earnings per share grew even faster increasing 74% to $2.09. We executed very well in the quarter with Helios production ramping as planned and epic adoption expanding across cloud, enterprise, and super intelligence workloads. Data center revenue growth has accelerated sequentially every quarter this year with the segment contributing 64% of total revenue in the third quarter up from 47% just 1 year ago.

76:14 We expect that acceleration to continue in the fourth quarter driven by increased demand for inference and agentic workloads and the ramp of our newest products. Turning to our segments, data center revenue grew 97% year-over-year to a record 8.5 billion. In server, both cloud and enterprise sales more than doubled year-over-year. We significantly exceeded our previous outlook of more than 80% growth as we gained revenue share.

76:45 Customers deployed epic across more applications with agentic workloads contributing significant growth. In cloud, hyperscalers deployed substantial volumes of epic servers in the quarter to run more internal services and expand their public cloud offerings. Turin is now the most widely deployed epic generation in the public cloud with more than 540 instance types available globally from the largest providers. Cloud providers also added significant epic capacity in the quarter for personal and enterprise agents which are quickly becoming the next killer app for CPUs in the cloud.

77:24 Meta's Muse and OpenAI's dots illustrate how quickly personal agents are growing with more than 10 million people activating Muse agents in the first 6 weeks. Enterprises are moving fast as well, putting agents to work across software development, supply chain, and IT operations. These agents work continuously and in parallel across applications and enterprise systems, adding to accelerator demand while creating a substantial increase in CPU demand.

77:56 Adoption is just starting, and we expect demand to grow sharply as agents are deployed more broadly and take on more complex work. In head nodes, we won major deployments with several of the largest model developers and cloud providers in the quarter, which will ramp over the coming quarters. EPYC's leadership performance and mature ecosystem proven at scale have made it the host CPU of choice for custom accelerators. As one example, OpenAI selected Turin EPYC processors as the host CPUs for its first custom accelerator platforms.

78:33 In enterprise, EPYC server sell-through was a record with strong demand from new and existing customers. We added dozens of first-time EPYC customers in the quarter, including large financial services, communications, retail, and healthcare companies. Existing customers are also making EPYC their primary compute platform, extending adoption from specific workloads to a much larger share of their overall infrastructure. We began revenue shipments of EPYC Venice processors in the third quarter, and the first OEM systems are on track for availability this quarter.

79:10 Early demand is the strongest we have seen for any new EPYC generation. Our OEM and ODM partners have committed more than 240 Venice platforms, 20% more than Turin, and cloud providers are deploying Venice this quarter ahead of instance rollouts planned for early 2027. We recently launched Helion, a Venice reference design that enables turnkey EPYC rack-scale systems for AI infrastructure. Customers can configure Helion for their workloads from all CPU racks for hyperscalers to enterprise systems combining Venice and Instinct GPUs that can run agents and models together.

79:52 In the all CPU configuration, a single Helion rack has up to 144 Venice processors with nearly 74,000 threads delivering the highest agent density in the industry. Every major server OEM and ODM plans to offer Helion with the first systems shipping this quarter. Looking more broadly, demand for server compute is accelerating across cloud, enterprise, AI genetic, and super intelligence infrastructure.

80:23 EPYC is the industry's broadest portfolio spanning all of these markets with per socket leadership for cloud and agents, per core leadership for enterprise and head nodes, and memory and IO options tuned to each workload. Let us build on that leadership with significantly better performance per watt, performance per core, and performance per dollar than any other x86 or ARM server CPU positioning us to gain share and significantly grow our server business as the TAM grows to approximately 220 billion by 2030.

81:01 Turning toward data center AI business, Frontier Labs, hyperscalers, and cloud providers expanded Instinct deployments for inferencing and training driving record revenue. We started shipping MI250X in volume in the quarter and lead customers including Anthropic, Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle brought their first Helion racks online quickly. Customers are now running their latest models and workloads on Helion, and we are seeing very strong performance with the initial deployments.

81:35 We expect Helion deployments to increase substantially in the fourth quarter as production continues to ramp, and HPE, Dell, Lenovo, Supermicro, and other OEM and ODM partners begin shipping systems. We are very pleased with the overall performance we are seeing at the rack level. MI250X leads in compute flops, memory capacity, and scale-out bandwidth. And as Helios comes to market, it delivers an even larger lead in memory bandwidth and higher scale-up bandwidth than the competition.

82:09 We are working closely with our manufacturing and OEM partners to scale production as customers expand their deployments. In supercomputing, EuroHPC selected Instinct MI230XTPUs and 6th gen Epic processors for Lumi AI, Europe's next flagship supercomputer planned to come online in the second half of 2027. MI230X delivers nearly nine times the double precision performance of the competition, which is critical for scientific simulations.

82:42 As a result, MI230X has now been selected to power next generation systems around the world, and we are well positioned to win additional designs as governments and research centers plan their next major investments. In software, we launched ROCm 10 with major enhancements for production deployments at scale, including faster startup across large GPU clusters, and greater resilience for long-running workloads. ROCm 10 also adds agentic performance tuning with ROCm.ai, which profiles workloads, identifies bottlenecks, and applies and validates improvements, turning weeks of engineering optimization into hours.

83:26 Customers are also using their own agents to optimize models on our open software stack. For example, Anthropic highlighted that one engineer used Claude to bring up their latest model on Instinct MI250X racks over a single weekend with strong performance. Our work with Frontier Labs is already enabling their models to handle complex software development and performance tuning for Instinct. And as those capabilities continue to improve, the benefits extend to everyone in the AMD ecosystem.

83:59 We announced two acquisitions in the quarter to strengthen our super intelligence portfolio. Pensando brings a highly experienced engineering team and specialized silicon built for low latency efficient inference. We plan to integrate their technology across our solutions portfolio to address the growing demand for low latency super intelligence applications. World Labs, led by co-founder and CEO Dr. Fei-Fei Li, brings a world-class research team with expertise in spatial intelligence and models that understand the physical world, giving us deeper insight into how Frontier models and workloads are evolving.

84:39 Fei-Fei will join AMD as chief scientist, leading our model research and helping shape our future hardware, software, and systems road maps. We expect both acquisitions to close by the end of the year. Looking ahead, our focus is on execution at scale. The ramps of Venice, the MI250 series, and Helios are still early, and all three are on track to grow significantly. We now expect data center segment revenue growth to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and full year segment revenue to more than double from 2025.

85:15 Our visibility into 2027 also continues to strengthen. Last quarter, we said we expected annual server revenue to grow more than 70% and data center segment revenue to more than double for the year. Since then, customers have expanded their Epic and Instinct deployment plans, and we have secured more supply to support that growth. We now expect server revenue to double year-over-year in 2027, and data center AI revenue to grow even faster than we projected 90 days ago.

85:50 As a result, we expect data center to be more than 80% of our total revenue in 2027, and to drive the majority of our revenue and earnings growth. Looking further out, customer engagements for MI500 continue to progress very well. Interest is very high as it is another significantly forward in performance. We are working very closely with multiple frontier labs to optimize MI500 for their workloads as they plan multi-gigawatt deployments.

86:24 Turning to client and gaming, segment revenue decreased 8% year-over-year to 3.7 billion. In client, revenue increased 7% year-over-year to 2.9 billion, driven by strong sales of our Ryzen mobile processors. Commercial is becoming a larger part of our client business as large enterprises adopt Ryzen Pro PCs across their employee base. Eight of the 10 largest banks in the world and seven of the 10 largest healthcare and automotive companies now use Ryzen Pro PCs.

86:59 OEMs continue expanding their AMD-based commercial lineups from everyday business PCs to high-end workstations. HP, Lenovo, and others launched the first commercial notebooks and small form factor desktops featuring our newest Ryzen AI Max Pro 400 series processors. These systems deliver workstation-class performance and run super intelligence models with up to 300 billion parameters locally. Looking at the market, PC sell-through slowed late in the quarter as higher memory and component costs weighed on demand.

87:36 We are managing the business accordingly, aligning sell-in with sell-through to keep customer and channel inventory healthy. In 2027, we are planning for PC market unit shipments to decline by a double-digit percentage. In this environment, we expect to outperform the market as we deliver our rising road map and grow our commercial footprint. In gaming, revenue declined 40% year-over-year to $773 million, primarily due to lower semi-custom sales as expected at this stage of the console cycle.

88:13 Gaming graphics revenue declined year-over-year while Radeon GPU channel sell-through increased sequentially. Beyond gaming, Radeon AI Pro revenue grew significantly from the prior quarter as more developers choose AMD to run and fine-tune models locally. We expect strong growth for Radeon AI Pro to continue driven by our leadership performance per dollar and an open software stack optimized for the latest open-source models.

88:43 Turning to our embedded segment, revenue increased 29% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, the fourth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. Demand was very strong across all of our end markets led by strong growth with aerospace and defense, automotive, communications, and industrial customers. Data center build-outs are also driving higher demand for our embedded CPUs and adaptive SOCs in control plane and optical networking applications.

89:14 We remain on track to close more than 18 billion of design wins in 2026, our third consecutive record year. Adaptive design wins have increased every year since we acquired Xilinx with embedded x86 and semi-custom wins growing even faster. As these wins ramp over the next few years, we expect our embedded business to deliver strong double-digit annual revenue growth and continue outgrowing the market. In summary, we delivered an excellent third quarter and expect an even stronger fourth quarter as data center and embedded segment growth more than offsets lower client CPU sales.

89:54 We enter 2027 with the strongest product portfolio in our history and significant customer momentum. We have worked across our supply chain to secure the wafers, substrates, advanced packaging, memory, and other key components needed to support much higher growth next year. Based on our current visibility, we now expect revenue to grow more than 80% in 2027, which is more than twice the long-term financial model we outlined at our financial analyst day last November.

90:27 Data center will be the largest contributor, driven by expanding Helios deployments and continued epic share gains. We also expect embedded growth to accelerate next year driven by adoption of our adaptive and x86 solutions. Beyond 2027, we are increasing R&D investment across our silicon, software, and systems roadmaps, and working closely with our largest customers to support their ambitious infrastructure plans for the next 3 to 5 years.

90:58 We are also deepening our collaboration with our supply chain partners and investing alongside them to secure the long-term capacity our growth will require. Taken together, these give us strong confidence in our ability to sustain exceptional revenue growth for years to come with earnings growing even faster. Now, I will turn the call over to Jean to provide additional color on our third quarter results. Jean? >> Thank you, Lisa, and good afternoon, everyone. I'll start with a review of our financial results and then provide our outlook for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026.

91:36 We delivered an outstanding third quarter. Revenue increased 45% year-over-year to a record 13.4 billion, exceeding high end of our guidance, driven by our data center segment, which nearly doubled year-over-year. Revenue increased 16% sequentially, driven by strong growth in the data center and embedded segments, partially offset by decline in the client and gaming segments. Our data center segment accounted for approximately 64% of total revenue, up from 58% last quarter, underscoring the continued shift in our business mix and its increasing contribution to AMD's growth.

92:22 Gross margin was 56%, up 190 basis points year-over-year, reflecting a richer product mix. Operating expenses were 3.6 billion, an increase of 29% year-over-year, as we continue to invest in R&D to expand our data center silicon, systems, and software capabilities. Operating income grew 75% year-over-year to a record 3.9 billion, significantly outpacing our revenue growth.

92:55 Operating margin was 29%, expanding more than five percentage points year-over-year, underscoring the operating leverage in the business as we scale. In the third quarter, we began recognizing the accounting impact of warrants issued under our previously announced the customer agreement, as we shipped MI250 series GPUs. Our GAAP diluted earnings per share were $1.46, which included $1.1 billion non-cash charge in other income and expense, primarily reflecting the increase in our share price and the changes in the estimated probability of meeting the warrant conditions.

93:40 Going forward, this quarterly non-cash fair value adjustment I expect to increase as we and our customers progress under this agreement. The amount will vary each quarter based on AMD's stock price and the other valuation assumptions. These non-cash adjustments will not affect our non-GAAP results of free cash flow. Our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.09. Now, turning to our reportable segments, starting with the data center.

94:14 Data center segment revenue was a record of 8.5 billion, up 97% year-over-year, driven by record server revenue on strong demand for our fifth generation I/O processors and the by record data center AI revenue. Highlighted by the launch of our AMD Instinct MI250X series GPUs. On a sequential basis, data center revenue increased 27% primarily driven by initial MI250X series sales and the strong server revenue growth.

94:49 The data center segment operating income was 2.9 billion, up 168% year-over-year, and the operating margin increased to 34% compared to 25% a year ago, demonstrating strong operating leverage of data center business. Client and the gaming segment revenue was 3.7 billion, down 8% year-over-year due to lower semi-custom and graphics sales, partially offset by higher demand for the latest generation Ryzen mobile processors.

95:26 In the client business, revenue was a 2.9 billion, up 7% year-over-year, driven by higher sales of Ryzen mobile processors. Sequentially, client revenue was down 4% as higher memory cost weighted on PC unit demand partially offset by richer mix of high-end processors. Gaming revenue was a 773 million, down 40% year-over-year due to lower semi-custom revenue and the lower graphics demand.

95:59 Sequentially, gaming revenue was essentially flat. Client and gaming segment operating income was 573 million or 15% of revenue compared to 867 million or 21% a year ago. Embedded segment revenue was 1.1 billion, up 29% year-over-year and a 14% sequentially as demand has strengthened across the several end markets like by growth in aerospace and defense, automotive, communication, and the industrial end market.

96:34 Embedded segment operating income was 453 million or 41% of revenue compared to 283 million or 33% a year ago. Turning to balance sheet and cash flow. During the quarter, inventory increased approximately 3 billion sequentially to 11.5 billion to fulfill our strong data center demand. We generated 1.2 billion in cash from operating activities of continuing operations.

97:07 Free cash flow was 554 million reflecting increased working capital investment and ongoing capital expenditures to secure equipment and capacity for the rapid growth of our data center business including back-end capacity dedicated to support our data center demand. We expect to continue to invest in inventory and capacity to support our strong growth in 2027.

97:38 At the end of the quarter, cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investment were 15.8 billion. Our total debt was 7.1 billion including 4.75 billion senior notes offering we completed in August. Now turning to our fourth quarter 2026 outlook. We expect revenue to be approximately 17 billion plus or minus 3%.

98:08 The middle point of our guidance represents approximately 66% year-over-year revenue growth. Primarily driven by the acceleration of our data center segment. Sequentially, we expect revenue to grow by approximately 27% driven by a sharp increase in our data center segment of approximately 50% growth, a decline in our client and gaming segment of greater than 20%, and a double-digit growth in our embedded segment.

98:44 In addition, we expect fourth quarter non-GAAP gross margin to be approximately 55%. And then we expect non-GAAP operating expenses to be approximately 3.75 billion. We expect non-GAAP net interest and other expense to be again of approximately 4 million. We expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate to be 13%. Our diluted share count is expected to be approximately 1.67 billion shares, including the estimated impact of closing the Xilinx and the Wavelite acquisition in the fourth quarter.

99:24 We are not expecting our fourth quarter share count to be impacted by customer warrants. In closing, the third quarter was an outstanding quarter for AMD with a record revenue, significant operating margin expansion, and the earnings growth, reflecting disciplined execution across the business. As our data center business continues to scale, we are very well positioned to drive increased profitability and the long-term shareholder value.

99:55 With that, I'll turn it back to Mark for the Q&A session. >> Thank you much. >> Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys.

100:32 One moment, please, while we poll for questions. And the first question comes from the line of Tom O'Malley with Barclays. Please proceed with your question. >> Hey, good evening, and thanks for taking my question. congrats on the great results. I I guess, Lisa, let's start off with the fact that you're giving some more color into 2027. Looks like revenue's growing 80%, but the data center component of that is growing much faster. We're data center's going to be a greater than 80% of your business next year. So, maybe can you talk about first and foremost, like, is this backed up by supply, whether that be you know, wafers, packaging, substrate, memory?

101:07 and then if you look at the demand profile behind that, would demand outstrip that supply if if you were able to get some more? Thank you. >> Yeah, sure, Tom. Thanks for the question. So, look, we have a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter and into 2027. we do see a situation where there is very strong demand. So, we see demand across the data center business, across our CPU business, as well as our data center AI business. And when you look at the rate and pace of that growth, we've been planning for it for the last several years. So, we've absolutely spent a significant amount of time with our customers planning what, you know, their needs are in terms of their deployments and their deployment schedules, and also with our supply chain partners to ensure that we have the wafers, the substrates, the advanced packaging, the memory, you know, all of the other components that go along with it. it is true that demand is higher than supply. So, we continue to work with our supply chain partners to increase supply, and I do believe that there is a a good opportunity for us to do that just given the strong relationships we have throughout the ecosystem. But sitting where we are today to be able to say that you know the overall company will grow greater than 80% especially you know the server business will approximately double from a fairly high point in 2026 and then the data center AI business we continue to have strong visibility and we see strong demand from our customers and we continue to see also you know good follow through on all of the other aspects of the infrastructure that are needed. So overall we're we're very you know positive about the data center growth into 2027.

102:50 >> Super helpful and then just as a follow up on the on the client side you're saying down greater than 20% in the fourth quarter. That's kind of in line with what we've heard from other so far in the in the market. But if you look at 27 I think something that's difficult is that normally you see seasonality down in Q1 and then you wouldn't get a recovery kind of till Q2 Q3. So maybe talk about like what the longevity of this correction kind of looks like and why you've been able to kind of outperform a bit until this point and how you see that kind of coming out of this trough into next year. Thanks Lisa.

103:20 >> Yeah sure Tom. So I'm talking a little bit about you know the PC market. The PC market continues to be an important market to us. I think we were signaling all along in the last couple of calls that we were expecting a sub seasonal second half of the year and that's how it's played out. You know our view is this is one of those times when component prices go up it affects overall system pricing. One would expect the consumer markets to be more sensitive to that and so we have seen a bit of slow down in the sell through.

103:51 We're just managing the business you know very very prudently and we want to ensure that you know inventory stays healthy throughout the channel and throughout our customers. And so our planning assumption for 2027 is that you know the market will be double digit percentage down. We will you know certainly focus on the segments where we can add the most value, places like enterprise where we can continue to be underrepresented, premium consumer, desktop channel. These are really good markets for us.

104:20 but we are, you know, planning with the the current environment for a a down year for 2027. And, you know, we will, you know, work through that. the good part about it is, you know, our supply chain is, you know, quite fungible across, you know, our PC business and our data center business. And so, that actually does afford us the ability to you know, move supply around as we see these signals in the market. And overall, as I said earlier, we do have more demand than we have supply. And so, we're continuing to work all of the aspects to increase our supply as we go through the next few quarters.

105:01 >> Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities. Please proceed with your question. >> thanks for taking my question. Lisa, you know, there's a lot of market debate about the financing of data centers and availability of land, power, and and shell, etc. So, kind of a two-parter, what's the level of confidence right that AMD has that your anchor customers have the financing and the physical infrastructure to support, I think it's roughly 3 gigawatt of or so of planned AMD deployments into 27. And then, as we look beyond, you know, many of your competitors are kind of investing in the ecosystem, providing residual value guarantees, and such, and saying there is a lot more fungibility of their product. So, does that create a kind of a competitive dynamic for AMD? So, just just curious to hear your perspective on 27 readiness and the 28 competitive landscape.

105:58 >> Sure, Vivek. thanks for the question. So, as I said earlier, we're seeing very strong demand from our, you know, lead data center AI customers. I think, you know, you you can see that there's a a strong demand for more compute and MI250 5 is positioned extremely well. And when we look at, you know, Venice, MI250, Helios, I think we feel extremely good about the competitiveness. We have been planning for this ramp with our customers jointly. So, we have good visibility in that land, power, shells, all of those, the data center infrastructure and we are very much working hand-in-hand with our customers. So, we know where the GPUs are going in terms of which data centers and which locations and all that stuff.

106:41 You know, going into 2028 and beyond, I would I guess what I would say is the following. Look, I think we are seeing very strong growth overall. I think we have a very strong business, we have a very strong balance sheet and from that standpoint, our goal is first and foremost, we're investing in our growth to support that. And that means investing in R&D, investing in supply chain and capacity, you know, investing alongside our partners to ensure that we have the capacity for all of those things that we talked about earlier that are necessary for this type of ramp. And then we are selectively investing with our lead partners where we see it's helpful to have, you know, for example, the data center infrastructure identified way in advance and that's multiple years in advance.

107:25 And I think that's the right thing to do to ensure that, you know, we are, you know, jointly ensuring that there's the right infrastructure as our new chips become available. But we are being selective and strategic in how we do that with the first principle being investing in our growth. >> Got it. And for my follow-up, Lisa, one more on the competitive landscape, you know, many of your frontier lab customers have been working on their custom ASICs and I'm curious, how do they conceptually make the choice between using ASICs versus AMD products? Like what what determines their allocation? Is it cost per token, power efficiency, software flexibility, time time to deployment?

108:05 Just What are the puts and takes in that decision-making and are there workloads where, you know, using an AMD GPU work better than than the alternatives that they have? Thanks. >> Sure, so Zach, so look, I think we feel extremely good about where we're positioned in terms of our performance and our total cost of ownership that we're delivering with Helios. That is fundamentally the most important factor when we think about you know, sort of deployment scale and deployments going forward. I think there was a significant investment that we've made in direct scale systems and ensuring that Helios really ramped nicely. You know, third quarter was the first quarter that we shipped MI250 and Helios racks for revenue. I think it's a very major milestone. We're having a big step up in Q4. We'll continue to ramp throughout 2027. And the the key is for us to continue to show that you know, TCO advantage across workloads. It is true that from a you know, general purpose CPU standpoint that we have more fungibility as you think about you know, various workloads that occur. There has been also you know, very strong co-design. So you know, beyond the MI250 series, we're working on MI500 and MI600 as well to ensure that our technology gets even more, let's call it tuned to what the frontier labs need. So I think that's those are the the key factors in terms of you know, deployments choices.

109:37 >> Thank you and the next question comes from the line of Joshua Buckhalter with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question. >> Hey guys, thanks for taking my question and congrats on the progress. I was wondering if you could give us insight into how we should be thinking about HBM costs impacting your model as the Instinct business ramps. I think investors have been asking how your revenue per gigawatt contribution in the last year or so and your outlook has been so consistent in that 15 to 20 billion per gigawatt range given what's going on with HBM pricing.

110:08 Is that because early builds are fairly program specific and pricing was agreed upon a long time ago. And again, as we think about that business longer term, you know, do you have the ability to pass on these higher input costs even to your your big three customers? Thank you. >> Sure, Josh. So, the way to think about it is, you know, as we ramp, we have had, let's call it, long-term agreements with some of our suppliers as well as some of our customers. But, given where the memory market is, and not just the memory market, by the way, other component costs are, you know, also seeing some inflationary pressures in the sense of, you know, as there's more capex that's put into the overall supply chain environment, we are, you know, also working with our customers to include to ensure that, you know, those costs are shared as we go forward. So, from my perspective, you know, back to the question that Vivek had, this is all about, you know, TCO and ensuring that from a tokens per dollar standpoint that we continue to offer you know, very strong advantages for choosing, you know, AMD Instinct and and our overall Helios system. And even with some of the inflationary pressures that are out there, we certainly believe that we are offering you know, leading you know, TCO for the AI workloads.

111:26 >> Thank you, Lisa. Then, maybe for Jean, you know, it's was good to see opex come in light in the third and fourth quarter. It's been a sticking point for investors for a little bit, you know, but I guess given how steep the revenue growth is expected to be in in 2027, we're flying a little blind given your you know, you're kind of at two more than two x your target model. How should we think about opex growth in '27? And you know, I guess while we're in the neighborhood, you know, do you think you can hold your target gross margin range at you know, sort of that 55% floor as we move through the year and Helios continues to ramp? Thank you.

112:01 >> Yeah, Josh, thank you for the question. On the opex, as you said, we have been investing aggressively. what you're seeing is the investment are translating to accelerating revenue growth. We're seeing in 2026, we're actually quite pleased with our 2026 our operating leverage. We're expanding revenue much faster than all packs growth which driving the operating margin increase and if you think about the Q4 guide, we're guiding very significant revenue growth more than all packs. That dynamic we believe will carry into 2027.

112:41 Lisa talked about that we expect the whole company growing more than 80% we should expect all packs to grow less than the top line revenue growth rate less half less than half of the top line revenue growth rate. So that will drive a very significant operating margin expansion in 2027. Going back to gross margin, we are actually very happy about where we are with our gross margin in Q3, we are ramping MI450 data center AI business is doing very well actually better than our expectation when we got into the Q3 quarter and then in Q4, we're guiding sequentially revenue growing 50% for data center business.

113:30 It's actually going to be the quarter data center AI business is surpass server business. So we all know there's a margin little bit of diluted to corporate average but the gross margin dollars are increasing very significantly. I think looking ahead of 2027, we actually think our data center business will be more than 80% of total company revenue. So the mix of data center business is going to drive the company's gross margin significantly.

114:06 The way to think about it is data center AI will continue to ramp through 2027 and the server business is expected to double. So quarter over quarter there may be variations because of the mix of those business will be the a little bit different. in addition, in better business is strengthening in 2027. I think that will also help our growth margin. Overall, when you put the whole business model together, what you should expect us to do is significant top line revenue growth, significant gross profit expansion, and the OpEx growing like and revenue growth, which will result in very significant operating margin expansion and profitability expansion.

115:01 >> Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Timothy R. Arcuri with UBS. Please proceed with your question. >> Thanks a lot. Lisa, I'm wondering if you can break down a little bit how data center's going to, you know, look like next year. you did revise server CPU up from up 70 to more than a 100%, but you're not being super specific about, you know, data center AI. So, is the right way to think about it that the GPU business will still be bigger in dollars than the server CPU business, but not much? Is that the right way to think about the split? And then, how to think about the like shape of the year?

115:34 I know that the, you know, GPU business is lumpy, but I imagine it's it's probably pretty, you know, ratable to the year. Is that kind of fair to think? Thanks. >> Yeah, Tim. maybe let me break down a couple things. So, first of all, we think 2027 is going to be a very strong momentum from year for both the CPU business as well as the data center AI business. And, you know, when we gave you some of the markers, you should just consider them markers, right? So, we've said the overall company will grow greater than 80% and for the data center CPU business, we will about double. And for the data center AI business, it will significantly more than double. And from that standpoint, you should expect that the data center AI business continues to be as Jim just said, you know, Q4 is the first quarter where the data center AI business will cross over in terms of size compared to the CPU business and we would expect both businesses to grow nicely throughout the year. So hopefully that gives you a bit of your shape as we as we as we go through the year.

116:42 >> Thanks a lot. And then Jean, I guess can you help us on the warrants? How are they going to layer in through the year? Any any sort of like you know guardrails you can give us some sort of how to you know roll that into our model through the year and into 2027. Thanks. >> Yeah, thanks for the question. I think the the simple way to think about it is there are three parts of for the warrant.

117:05 The first device you know we report net revenue. The Q3 revenue Q4 guide and the one hour we talk about the revenue it's always net revenue which already incorporated the warrant revenue reduction piece which is determined at the grant date of a fair value. That one you should not worry about it. It's always incorporated in our revenue whenever we talk about the revenue. The second piece is probably you you're asking is the share counter.

117:37 The way to think about it is the share counter only come into diluted the share once all the vesting conditions and the exercising conditions are met by our customers. That means you know the shipment need to be there and there are some commercial conditions need to be met. We are going to provide guidance in 2027 to give you clear guidance when we believe the share vesting and exercising conditions are met.

118:07 That is something we'll provide transparency once we get into 2027. The last piece is it's a non-cash charge quarterly non-cash charge which is a remeasurement of a fair value. That actually does not impact our non-GAAP financial results and the cash flow. So, on the share counter, just wait for us to provide you clear guidance when we get there.

118:38 >> Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of CJ Muse with Canter Fitzgerald. Please proceed with your question. >> Yeah, good afternoon. Thank you for taking the question. I guess first question on the server CPU side, you know, you you've obviously taking your outlook higher. I'm curious how we should be thinking about units including higher core count as well as higher ASPs associated with Venice. is there is there a way to, you know, break that down to to help us understand that 100% growth?

119:07 >> Sure, CJ. So, on the server CPU side when we talk about 100% growth, you should imagine that we are definitely shipping significantly more units. in that, of course, some of those units have higher core counts as we go into Venice. but I would say the the growth in revenue is mostly in in units and core counts and less so in ASPs, although there are some there's an ASP uplift as we increase core count. >> Great, thanks. And just as a follow-up, just a button-down 1Q seasonality, you know, based on what you said tonight, I'm interpreting that we should see kind of normal client and gaming down seasonally in Q1, kind of ratable data center, you know, above December.

119:53 and and I guess as part of that, any any sort of vision that for how to think about embedded? >> for the embedded business, typically there's a seasonality. we do see overall when we look at the 2027 for the whole year, embedded business is actually going to grow significantly and also strengthening through the year. but typically Q1 actually there's some seasonality for embedded business.

120:27 >> Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research. Please proceed with your question. >> Hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering, I know you said that you hit crossover for GPU versus CPU in in Q4 within the context of that 50% guide. I was wondering if you could help us with the magnitude of that crossover. Is it just barely there or like is it like significantly higher? I'm I'm just trying to get the sizing in my head in terms of the the answer to what I did in the next year.

121:01 >> Yeah, hi Stacy. maybe I'll give you some color, right? Easy the way to think about it is if you think about the MI250X ramp, it's very significant step up sequentially from Q3 to Q4. And that it really compared to server side, you know, server is growing really nicely, strongly, but the ramp of data center AI which surpassed the server in Q4, that is a very significant step up. I think the the way, you know, server business of course is very strong, but the data center AI will be much higher than server business in Q4.

121:45 >> In terms of dollars? >> Yeah, in terms of dollars. Yeah. >> Okay. Right. And and thanks. And for my follow-up, you know, there was some questions earlier about gross margins next year. I wasn't exactly quite sure how to interpret your answer. in terms of the gross margins next year relative, I guess, to the Q4 rate. Do you think you could give us some some color or some highlights on like a good entrance rate and a good exit rate for gross margins in 2027?

122:12 >> I think >> like the ramps of the different products and everything that are happening. >> Yeah, Stacy. the reason we're not able to provide you quarter over quarter, it's really because when you think about the data center mix is a primary driver in 2027. When you have a data center business revenue is more than 80% of all the total company business. And then within data center, the interesting part is you have a data center AI business continue to ramp significantly. On the server side, we did mention Lisa mentioned that we're going to double in 2027.

122:52 of course, we also know the supply constraint environment and Lisa also mentioned that we're working with our suppliers to ensure we get more supplies. So, the mix between those two business actually determine what the company's gross margin will be. right now, I actually don't have that visibility. I think we hope both business are going to do great. And we know they're going to both doing great. Q4 actually is a good benchmark to think about it is because Q4 data center AI business is much higher than CPU business. So, I think that give you some idea at that benchmark. Then in 2027, different quarter could be different.

123:40 There could be variation there. >> Thank you. And the next question comes from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question. >> Great. Thank you. we've heard quite a bit of positive feedback on the Helion racks. And I wonder if you could talk a little bit about that in the CPU only version of that, what's different for sort of these agenic workloads versus a traditional rack? And then do you anticipate an attach rate of the the GPU blade in a lot of these?

124:15 >> For Joe, yeah, there is quite a bit of positive excitement around the Helion racks. And I think the main point there is these agenic racks, they they really want to be optimized for the environment that they're in. So, if they are in, let's call it hyperscalar or large cloud racks, you know, you're going to have them in all CPU configurations. It's going to be quite dense. You know, Venice is the from a performance per socket standpoint is the best in the industry, and so that will translate into a very strong agnetic rack if you you know, fully populate it with CPUs.

124:53 but in enterprise areas, you will also see the opportunity to mix CPUs and GPUs, and it just allows people to really optimize for the workloads that they're in. And it's it is you know, we we have contributed to OCP, so it's a you know, fully open rack, and I think that is viewed as a positive. And from that standpoint, we've gotten very positive feedback from both, you know, OEMs and ODMs as well as customers.

125:24 >> Okay, thank you. And if I could follow up that 100% growth in server, do you think you're meeting demand at that level, or do you think you still have kind of a short condition through through all of next year? >> Well, Joe, for us to grow that amount, we're meeting a lot of demand. And you know, the when you look at when we talked about the TAM growing, let's call it, you know, about 50% CAGR over the next three or four years, you know, we saw growth in sort of three areas, right? So, traditional cloud and enterprise, you know, agnetic CPUs and agnetic workloads and head nodes.

125:58 we believe we're gaining share in each one of those segments as we give you that forecast of you know, roughly 100%. I do believe there's more demand, and we are actively working with our supply chain partners to satisfy additional demand. You know, obviously, we also have to make sure that the squared sets are there, and you know, DDR5 and all of the other components are there. but my view is we are taking a big step up in terms of the demand forecast from our customers. I'm excited about the fact that our demand is broad-based, so it is, you know, really virtually across every customer in terms of their expansion of their footprint with AMD and and so that's a positive and we're going to continue to work on increasing supply to meet the additional demand as it comes to fruition.

126:52 >> John, I'm actually going to ask you to have one more caller join us, please. I think we have time for one more questioner. Thank you. >> Thank you and the final question comes from the line of Jim Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question. Hello Jim, your line is now live. Okay, our final question comes from the line of Harsh Kumar with Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

127:27 >> Yeah, hey Lisa. question is on Helios. So, you're one of two companies shipping complete racks. Can I ask you about what your share aspiration is? And and the reason why I'm asking is you've done a wonderful job in servers taking share from basically a very, you know, difficult competitor. and also the second part of that question is do you have aspirations to address the enterprise market with this with the with the Helios rack in the setup? And then I have a follow-up.

127:55 >> Sure Harsh. So, I look, we're very happy with the progress that we've made with Helios. I think this is a significant direct scale solutions are a significant you know, R&D efforts. I think Helios has ramped very nicely. We saw a very a good initial order in Q3. We're ramping nicely into Q4 and into 2027. You know, our aspirations are to be a you know, a very significant compute supplier to our largest customers both Frontier Labs as well as hyperscalers.

128:29 And from that standpoint, the focus on Helios and MI450 ramp is very much on our minds for Q4 and 2027. But, we're in very active dialogues with our largest customers on MI200 and MI300 and beyond. And, you know, our aspirations are to continue to have a larger and larger piece of, you know, their you know, compute needs. And from everything that we see, demand continues to go up. So, I think that's, you know, the overall view on Helios. Was there another part of that question?

129:01 Oh, enterprise. Sure. Yes, certainly. I think we we continue to see, you know, although enterprises developing, let's call it a little bit slower than the the largest frontier labs and hyperscalers. we do believe that the enterprise business is quite important. we have made a lot of progress in enterprise CPUs. Many of our enterprise customers are actually asking for our advice as to, you know, how to deploy AI and how to ensure that, you know, they're deploying it as efficiently as possible.

129:35 When you think about, you know, both you know, on-prem as well as cloud deployments. So, we are expanding our portfolio. We introduced some enterprise specific GPUs and that will be a place where, you know, we would like to grow our footprint. to again be a very strategic supplier to our largest enterprise customers. >> Understood. And And my follow-up is on the client side. you know, historically you've done a great job managing this business through situations like this.

130:05 what would be your share key strategy if your chief competitor was to cut ASPs? would you try to match them? Or would you be, you know, would you would you have to just gauge the situation as it goes? Just be curious about how you're going to manage this. >> I think Harsh, our view is, you know, PCs are an important market for us in the standpoint of, you know, I'm a big believer in end-to-end AI deployment. So, from cloud to edge to client. And, you know, we have a unique portfolio in that fashion. that being the case, I think we're always quite disciplined in how we manage. You know, our focus has really been on the most the highest value and most profitable segments of the PC market enterprise premium consumer desktop channel. These are places that we do very well. We you know, do recognize that there's a good amount of volatility in the low end of the market and that's the place where we have the least exposure frankly to that portion of the market.

131:05 >> I thank you John for organizing the Q&A. Thank you everybody for joining our call. We really appreciate you spending some time with AMD and thank you very much for your questions and and your attention. Let John go ahead and close the call. Thank you very much. >> Okay. How was that? >> I thought they crushed it, dude. >> Yeah. >> I thought they absolutely I think the best call that we've heard in Q3 so far and I'm not just saying that just cuz the stock is up. I mean in terms of the expectations and look, I know it's down from 5:30 but it's still up 8% on a almost trillion dollar company. So massive massive move that it's holding after hours.

131:46 The guidance on margins was 55, right? Which the street wasn't too negative about. and then growth was 80%. That's faster than Nvidia. I've seen Nvidia much larger base but if Jensen and Lisa are sandbagging and that 80 becomes 90 and Jensen's 70 becomes like 85 or maybe 90, you're going to have two of the biggest chip companies again in 2027 grow at massive rates. I don't know. I thought it was a pretty good call. I did you still have a variety of acquisitions that have to close.

132:20 Obviously Muse is only you know, in the hands of like 11 million people. That hasn't even touched 100 million people. Like I've started to use Muse a lot more so I can understand what they mean by these virtual stations and CPUs that are needed every day for Muse to be effective which ultimately goes back to AMD. So I thought it was a great call. I can't really find the issue. I'm curious your and Neil's perspective. Neil is a long-term shareholder of this. Do you think there was any issue in the call itself?

132:46 >> No, not at all. I think we we actually got some some good numbers. So, revenue is expected to be up more than 80%. So, just like with Nvidia, we now have a floor for for the next year. So, it's more than 80%. server CPU revenue roughly doubling. I think a quarter ago, that was more than 70%. So, that's even better. Data center AI revenue more than doubling as well.

133:17 Data center above 80% of total revenue. And of course, we know the margins there are are quite good. So, though very very good quarters, very good numbers. for next quarter, data center should be up 50% quarter-over-quarter to roughly $12.8 billion. Client and gaming, as we discussed before, that's going to be down. So, apparently, it's going to be down more than 20% quarter-over-quarter. and embedded is expected to be up double digits. So, again, it's it's a very good quarter, very good call. we we got a bit more details than what we're used to with with AMD.

133:56 So, so, I'm happy. with regards to the adoption of of Muse and things like that. Look, we can look at at what has happened with Grok Bot this week. I mean, I I've been using Grok Bot for the last 2 weeks, and I can tell you for sure that they they screwed us over. Like I paid for a service, and suddenly my usage is is way less than it was a couple of days ago. Like today, my usage >> Yeah, without like You know what? If you want to do it, at least tell me, "Okay, as of November 3rd or whatever, this is what's going to happen." But you cannot suddenly cap me when I already paid for the service. Today, I reset for the week.

134:37 I reset literally 10 hours ago. I'm already at 20% use. It It It It makes It makes no no sense to me, and they're lucky that Muse is not available worldwide or almost worldwide like like Grok Bot cuz otherwise I think they would have lost already quite a lot of of customers. I think Dylan Patel went on can't remember the name of of the podcast that got acquired by TVPN and and and said, "Yeah, they're doing this because they they need to show that growth is sustainable and if they're going to spend 300 400 dollars in capex, then the money needs to come from somewhere." I'm like, "Yes, okay, but what happens when people stop paying for Grok Bot?"

135:24 Then you lost, but going back to AMD, stopping my rant here, going back to AMD, the demand is there and it's not going it's not going away anytime soon. >> First of all, it's just crazy to say the podcast that got acquired by OpenAI. >> Yeah. >> but it's true. I mean we've not seen many podcast acquisitions anyway. Anyways, going back to AMD and Muse, I was using Muse probably the entire time like that that call was going on searching through X to find a lot of the different quotes that were taken out from SMCI's call, from AMD's call.

136:06 and the usage is I mean, it might as well be unlimited because I've never even been warned about usage. I do pay for the 20 dollar a month subscription for Muse and it's just lets me go on forever. but yeah, the the the call from AMD sounded very positive. The increasing in in total amount of data center demand let me bring up the actual quote that they said about the CPU business as well. They said, "For the data center CPU business we will about double and for the data center AI business it'll significantly more than double whenever talking about their business throughout 2027.

136:55 Very, very exciting. I'm not an AMD shareholder directly, but in terms of the AI build-out and just that type of narrative that we need for all like AMD success affects Bloom Energy. It affects SMCI. It affects, you know, many of the components down the stack, Vertiv, right? So, very great call. Super happy about their success and hopefully this is is really good for tomorrow's open as well. Not not just in after-hours pricing, but but that this actually bleeds out into the rest of the week.

137:33 >> Yeah, I I thought this was just a great print. Sentiment-wise, I think maybe this is a turning point, for the broader AI trade. Obviously, we got to deal with these elections tonight as well, but SMCI is up 10% after hours, Bloom's up four, SK Hynix is up two. If this were to get faded tomorrow, then it would be emblematic of the fact that the market really is upset about something more structural and deeper than just like the AI trade.

138:01 Maybe there is a deeper macro issue going on, but if this doesn't get sold off, I mean, S&P already had a you know, somewhat decent recovery today. Obviously, still far below its all-time highs, but you know, every recovery over the past three weeks has been faded by the end of the day. This one actually held, so maybe this is the print that gets the market to be a lot more excited. Yeah, Arista's up. I mean, Dell, HPE, Micron's up a bit.

138:25 Now, they did talk about some of the memory constraints as well. They they they said something similar to what all the CEOs have been saying, around memory. You didn't see too much action on the memory stocks after hours when Lisa was mentioning it, but it doesn't look like the memory constraints are leaving anytime soon, which theoretically should be bullish for those memory companies as well. >> Mike and thank you for the 40 gifted as well. You're very kind in the chat.

138:52 Thank you for the gifted memberships. I think you are a large shareholder of AMD. So, this should definitely be a a decent earnings for you. I mean, put in the chat, if you own a decent amount of AMD, are you happy with this call? Upset? Nitpicking at anything? Cuz I kind of think if you're heavy in this name, yeah, it's down from the 600s, but in terms of a print, I don't think they could have given you anything better than what they gave today.

139:22 >> Yeah, no, they did a very good job. Do you Do you hold this company, Amit? >> I have a very small position. I bought it 208. So, obviously, I'm heavier in Nvidia, but you know, I'm still holding on to those shares. Not going to make too much of a difference. but, you know, this has outperformed many of the other chip names this year, and it's stayed stuck for 4 years before it finally had the massive move it had in 2026.

139:47 And it And it's real, right? Like Like, yes, the multiple is more expensive than Broadcom and Nvidia, but you go out a couple years, Lisa Su just upgraded it to 80% growth, doubling in other categories. Like the growth is real, and I agree with you, Tanner. I've been using Muse a lot more. I'm probably not as big of a power user as you, but when I ask it to do something and I see it open up a browser and like go and do the thing. Like, for example, YouTube spam comments.

140:09 For 3 years, I don't know if you thought of this, Tanner. I I The old way was >> have not. That's amazing. >> I told Muse yesterday, I was like, "Bro, can you just delete these stupid comments?" Cuz I don't have time to delete one by one 50 comments, and they show up on every video. And Muse was like, she went through my entire like YouTube catalog and deleted every single spam comment, and every day she checks three times if there's more spam comments. Cuz that's annoying. Right?

140:31 When you go to the comments >> Did it add the words to the banned list or not? >> Yeah, it added words to the banned list, and then it manually would recognize trends of different crypto coins that the spammers are botting. >> But But just think about that. How stupid is that that you have to go to Muse, an outside agent? Like, why can't I really can't wrap my brain around why Google can't fix this problem.

140:59 >> I'll tell you why. It's a conspiracy theory I've had for years. It keeps you engaged. There's more comments, more notifications, more people It's a horrible argument, but >> engaged like as a creator? >> Yeah, no, it keeps everybody. Because if there's a bunch of comments, then not everyone knows those are crypto scams. Like we know it cuz we see it a lot of our audience but the random people that check a video and they see a 500 comments and they start scrolling through it. Like it's better that it's 500 versus zero comments, right? Now if I'm YouTube, I would rather If I'm a creator, I'd rather want zero comments versus spam or like 10 comments versus 500.

141:35 >> But on YouTube, I think you can in the studio you can't click on find similar comments. So it's will find 10 similar comments and you can delete all of the 10. >> No, but the problem is they come up with a new coin every day. >> Yeah, but yeah, yeah, no, I I yeah, I I get the >> It >> That's >> I I see comments where people say like, "Oh, you know, they're leaving these up.

141:56 This is on purpose. The creator yada yada yada." And I'm like it's not about that. You can block the words, then they change it to like >> Exactly. >> SP30B. >> >> And then it passes all the filters. It it's an impossible whack-a-mole that me and Amit and Neil have been trying to deal with for like 18 months now. >> But but it's it's it's every YouTuber I've talked to and some of the bigger ones I've talked to, they said, "Dude, >> All the finance guys.

142:21 >> Yeah, all the finance guys because that's, you know, the audience that will look at these crypto comments. They're like YouTube doesn't care because it's just more engagement. And in my head I'm like, "Sundar should really care about this. This is not a good experience on the app, but maybe it's not reached his level where he's made it a priority." So now I'm use, that's a use case every day to delete these comments. >> That that's going to be more CPUs and more demand for AMD.

142:46 >> Today I I I had the same thought. I'm like, Google just they they suck with product design and it seems and they they they don't pay attention. Yeah. >> >> Yeah, I agree. >> There's many moments where I thought Google should be winning in certain product features and designs and you know, YouTube's a really big company, so I get it. It's hard to push a ton of stuff and it's still an amazing product, but there's some things where it's like you know, there shouldn't be a question.

143:15 Now, when Gemini comes out with their agent, I feel like it's going to be even easier to do some of the stuff and not have to do it >> We assume it's going to be connected and things like that cuz today, for example, I have a Google Pixel, I have a Fitbit Air, I have Gemini, blah blah blah. So, I am very well connected in the Google ecosystem. You would think that the Google Health app would would work with Gemini's main app, right?

143:43 Wrong. It doesn't. Why not? I I I don't get it. I I don't get it. >> You know what's wild is there's someone in chat amongst all three of our channels. There's at least one person that's like, "Wait, Amits not invested in Groknam?" >> >> I'm I just went all in on this spam coin. Like not everyone is identifying this as a spam coin or else they wouldn't waste their tokens on this. They have to be getting someone in these spams.

144:15 And that's the sad part. It it it's terrible. >> But think about that. It's a decent use case for Muse that I thought of over the weekend and now I'm just like, "Man, that's great. I never have to worry like I check the comments today. There's actually I could actually read the comments. I can actually respond to people versus go through a sea of crypto bots. And like that's beneficial for AMD. That's something I'd probably pay for, to be honest. Like if Google never fit I would pay for that cuz it just makes the experience better for everybody.

144:43 And those are more use cases that we're going to figure out in a world of agents. >> Need to clean your email as well. You had 250,000 emails. >> Yep. I I I had it clean up a couple of my mom's emails accounts as well. Like my mom literally thought it was magic. She could not believe how amazing it was. Th- Th- >> is a question that I've got for you guys though because I've gotten so and this goes to user behavior. I remember early days of agents, you know, whenever people started connecting them to credit cards and everything and everyone said, "There's no possible way that I'm putting my money with these agents."

145:18 How many of the times where you've tried to work with an outside external tool or app where you're signed in and and Muse asks you to allow that permission? How many times have you selected always allow? And you're just letting the agents work on your behalf. Cuz I've definitely done this with many of my apps. >> But I haven't done that yet. >> So you hit allow every time? >> I I I I yeah, I hit allow every notification that it gives me.

145:45 >> For everything? >> For everything, yeah. >> Not for every But do you hit always allow ever? >> No, but but I also haven't given it any of bank accounts or credit cards. It's only like Gmails. >> Yeah, but but even with checking your emails like >> Well, so I connected I connected it to the Gmail connector and now it has full liberty to do whatever it wants. But if it needs to unsubscribe, sometimes it'll like verify that it's okay to unsubscribe from something. But yeah, it But you've given it full access to just browse your email.

146:14 >> Yes. Yes. Yeah. >> Same. >> Yeah. I mean we're going to be we're going to be living in a world where these agents do everything for us and we're going to be okay with it, I feel like. Just like we're okay with we were okay with posting photos on the internet in 2009 when Facebook started, right? >> Yeah. Yeah. Where before it was like do not put your name on the internet. >> Right. >> And now Amit is inviting people over He's inviting Europeans over to his apartment.

146:48 >> Or he invites us. >> >> Dude, you're making these jokes that people are not going to get. They're like, "What are you >> I don't care about them. I'm trying to get you to smile. I'm I'm here for you, baby. >> He's talking about Arnie and Amir and maybe Neil that will be coming in December. That's what he means by Europeans. I was like, what Europeans? What is what's going on? And then it's like >> Although Amir might be Japanese.

147:14 >> That's true. He might be Japanese now. >> Okay, so Yeah, agents agents are cool. The agents are cool. Like I know that like you have to be worried about certain things that maybe they should not have access to and bank accounts I think it will take a while until I give my agent access to to a bank account but at the end of the day people there's always this step of oh I will never do this this and that and then it becomes just incredibly convenient to do it and then suddenly it's like I yeah of course of course we do it. I mean why wouldn't we do it? It's the same also with the meta it's not the same but sentiment the meta smart glasses with the the camera and people calling it the the the the perv cam or or whatever. I'm like really like most people already share half their lives on Instagram and Facebook. Nobody asked them to.

148:13 Most people shoot pictures and videos of the public without anybody knowing but smart glasses are the issues. Eventually that will become also normal. Everything will become smart this smart that. It's it's just a convenience thing. It's just a oh does it cost me time? Does it cost me money? Yes, how much? If the ratio makes sense then suddenly it becomes mainstream and nobody asks questions anymore. >> Yeah, I don't know if I subscribe quite yet to the perv cams or whatever you're talking about but I the agent side I'm definitely on board.

148:47 >> >> don't lie. You said you're going to order the meta smart >> I'm doing the audio ones. I don't like the cameras. >> Mhm. >> You know. >> Fair enough. >> Jose is on vacation for those that are asking. >> Yeah, I mean >> And that's not even that's not even remotely a joke. He literally is already back on vacation. >> Yeah. >> And he's smart. He booked these vacations when the market was at the peak I think.

149:15 >> >> Cuz imagine if he had to book this vacation last week, there's no way. There's no way. >> Dude, like I but none of us here you guys think like we're just joking is none of us here actually know the reason why he's doing these many vacations. Like we all joke around with it but one day I want to be like bro, every month like really like I don't know how but he's just e- He does it every month or at least every other month and he enjoys it.

149:43 And it's a blessing to be able to do it but still >> Yeah, he's he is taking full advantage of the money that he's made. he's made money very very young and he is taking advantage of that work-life balance that he can now do, you know? And it's amazing. Like >> >> unreal. >> Also, I mean his his his his kid is very young so this might also be a an opportunity to to like spend time with the wife without having to worry as much cuz the kid's probably not going to remember it but >> And it's like real vaca- like I I I don't know if we can say I can say like it's a huge place, right? I can say where he is.

150:23 >> Yeah, I don't think people will find him on the >> It's not like a not a vacation spot. He's in Hawaii. >> >> Like it it's cra- like this dude's going on full-blown vacations with his family. >> If AMD tanks 20% tomorrow, someone in Hawaii is going to find Jose. >> >> And be like, "Hey man, what happened? You told me it was good." >> I think he'll be okay. Amidst literally like I'm on the train to New York right now between this road and this road.

150:54 >> >> tomorrow Jose is in Hawaii. Aloha, >> >> Yeah, if AMD's up 10% tomorrow, he's going to be like, "Well, it was a great vacation." >> Oh my gosh. Well, >> Okay. >> that is what we got. we'll all be here tomorrow for after hours Qualcomm, ARM, AppLovin, Mercado Libre.

151:26 I don't know if any of these are worth listening to. >> which ones? >> Qualcomm, ARM, AppLovin, Elf Coherent, Mercado Libre, Joby, Figma. Are those any any of those worth I mean, we'll definitely cover them, but >> I I I thought about it like AppLovin might be interesting. That one probably has a huge retail thing, so that's probably what I'm going to do. >> Okay, we'll figure it out.

151:56 >> Yeah. I've got Mercado Libre, but I I honestly don't think anyone cares. >> Mm yeah. >> Yeah, in the morning. >> too good of a company. >> It's true. It's too boring and >> and stable. >> We have Uber and McDonald's in the morning. So, those will be important as well. and then Thursday, I think we'll all be here again for Iren. we have a lot of companies, but Iren I think will be the main one people want to hear on Thursday, so we'll we'll be there for that one.

152:33 >> Ha, Iren scored 3 months ago. What a show that was. Can only go up from here. All right, from there. >> Yeah, that'll be one of the first major Neo Cloud's report as well, so it'll be important. >> Yeah, it I don't know. Are you guys excited to listen to Iren or it's just, you know, got to listen to all the Neo Clouds? >> If the stock is up a lot, I mean just that. If it's not, >> Are you still holding?

153:06 >> No. But I own NIBs, so >> Corning? >> Corries. Yeah. >> Do you hold any of the Neo Cloud Summit? >> While you're trying to hang up? >> Why, I have all three. I run as the smallest. Actually, Coreweave's relatively small with I rent. Nebius is the one I bought Nebius at 180 last week. >> Coreweave wasn't the smallest whenever you bought in, but it's made itself the smallest. The market made it the smallest. >> Shrinkage.

153:32 >> average is around I think I think you're in the same boat that 85-ish range. Nebius is the one I started buying more of over the past couple weeks. Obviously, that one's taken a hit. I still think out of all three, Nebius is the one that is the best. Having said that, the bond market issue I mean, it's a it's a big issue, right? It's been like it's been hard to meaningfully buy the dip on the Coreweave one because Nebius is not having the same bond problems, but if Coreweave bonds don't get resolved, Nebius is going to get I think bad financing cost, too.

154:05 And I rent is a whole different issue given they haven't announced a major hyperscale deal this year. So, I think the entire sector is in a weird category. I mean, the fact that SpaceX could not hold the 150s after their monster report, I think just goes to show this market's not excited for these companies right now. >> But, Nebius has the advantage that it can benefit a lot more from the high GPU prices today than the other two.

154:32 Like if Coreweave is mostly sold out already, it's a problem. >> Yeah, but the problem is just if they want to finance tons of GPUs in the future, they have to raise money, no matter what. And that's either through dilution >> found ways. >> Well, they got a bridge loan from Citi, but like I mean, for example, right? Meta just put out their bond pricing, and even Meta has to pay 7 and 1/2% on their 30-year. I don't know if Nebius and Coreweave and I rent get these types I mean, if Meta out of all companies has to pay this much?

155:09 I mean, Coreweave had 9.2 in June of this year, you know? That is my favorite and it's the same with SpaceX. SpaceX will get good rates, but if Elon wants to get to 80 billion a month, they don't have the capital to do that right now. So, I think the entire Neo cloud sector is going through like these paradigm shifts of okay, the compute there, the demand is there, the pre-payments are there, the ROI to Neil's point on the spot pricing is there, but the financing isn't there and I don't know what changes that narrative because that is to do more with the macro, the 10-year and the Iran war which maybe if that's over in the next couple weeks, then Neo cloud starts to go to the moon because the financing cost come down because the 10-year comes down, but I think that's the bigger issue right now.

155:50 >> Yeah. Having said that, we just put out a podcast with Neil Dutta on Basis Points. I would highly recommend if people are interested in the macro to watch it. You can link click the link right there. Neil Dutta is the head macro economist at Renaissance Macro and I don't know if people have heard of him before, but he's been on CNBC a bunch, Bloomberg. I mean, the guy is very, very, very smart. So, he's a bit more concerned for equities in 2027.

156:18 he thinks that most people I have the summary of the episode is that he thinks fighting the Fed is not the easiest thing to do. Now, long-term he's obviously bullish, but he advises clients in the short-term and in the short-term he thinks that next 12 to 18 months is a bit harder given how aggressive the Fed is on inflation. So, if people want to check that out, we go into the whole AI financing stuff as well.

156:39 >> I got content to listen to for now in the in the sauna. Thanks. >> So, you're going to listen to me while you're steaming and naked and >> Why'd you have to make it weird, man? What's going on? >> >> I'm making it weird today? Out of all the things that have been said, I'm making it weird. >> See, it doesn't feel good when people don't support your jokes. That's how That's literally what I do every single time. I sit here, I make jokes, and everyone goes, "What are you doing? What are you saying?"

157:14 Anyway, I liked your joke. It was funny. I don't actually sauna in the nude. I wear underwear. >> The cooling one? >> I I sit on on the on the cooling pad, yeah. On the ice pad. >> Very very important. >> It is important. I'm not going to get into it again. Okay, you got to protect your If you're going to have kids, you got to protect them. Okay. >> Okay. >> Did you guys like the Did you like the thing, by the way? Did it work well?

157:46 >> Yes. >> Yes, it was it was really good. It was legit. >> Okay. I heard that people wanted to see the other stocks on the list, so we're going to add that in later, so you can see other stocks on the side. I don't know if there's any We're going to try to get the transcript in, but that's going to be a hard problem to solve. But, yeah. >> Okay, and then tomorrow we'll talk about the midterms as well. We got the first polls closing at 7:00. By the end of the night, we'll have some idea.

158:19 but I think you will see some futures reaction around 10:00 11:00 p.m. and if it's positive and this AMD print is strong, then you know, maybe we move forward from there. All right, that is it for us. Thank you everybody for being here. Again, linking the base points episode right there in the chat. We will be live again tomorrow for the market open and the market close. Thank you all for being here. We will see you guys tomorrow and congrats everyone on AMD.

158:53 All right, everybody.