Prepare for Collapse: Interest Rates Will Crash The Economy

0:04 Hello everyone. Welcome to the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. How you all doing today? Hello everyone. Welcome to VRIC Media, your most trusted voice in metals and mining. I'm your host, Daryl Thomas, and today we have the pleasure of meeting with the legend himself, Peter Schiff of Europacific Asset Management. How you doing today, Peter? Oh, Darl. I'm doing good. How are you? >> I am doing pretty good. Pretty good. So, I want to start with your assessment of the recent inflation numbers that were released. Uh the markets have been uh turbulent since that number has come out. And so, just want to get your overall assessment on inflation. Well, I mean, the markets didn't seem to react really to to the number, but I think they should be. Although not necessarily that particular number, but just the idea that inflation is so much higher than the Fed's supposed target and heading in the wrong direction. You know, I think the year-over-year uh increase in the CPI is 3.8%.

1:10 But a month ago, it was 3.3%. So, moving higher. And if you annualize the April number, you're looking at about 7.2%. And oil prices are higher now than they were when those numbers were calculated. And I'm so are probably a lot of other prices. And there's no reason to believe the prices are going to stop going up. So I think we have a serious inflation problem. And the bigger problem is the Fed is still hold maintaining a a an easing bias and the markets are still pricing as if the next uh Fed move on rates is a cut even though inflation continues to worsen. So, I think the markets are really set up for a major disappointment and a big decline.

1:57 Uh, and maybe even more so if the Fed doesn't hike rates because if it doesn't hike rates, then inflation is going to be even more out of control than if it does. But even if it does, it's too little too late to do anything about it. So, this is a big problem. You can see the bond market breaking down. We're almost at a new 20-year high in long-term interest rates. I mean, we're very close, but the big problem isn't going to be the 20-year high, but when we make a 30-year high, because I think we're on the verge of a collapse. And, you know, if we get back to a 30-year high in 30-year treasuries, we're above 8%.

2:34 >> Because a 20-year high just puts us at about 5.1%. But that shows you the big gap there. You know, the interest rates are not going to stay low. And this is going to be a big problem not just for the markets but for the overall US economy, for the federal government because we have so much debt that needs to be financed. We can't really afford the current interest rates, let alone the much higher interest rates that we're going to get.

3:00 >> Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Um I could definitely see that. So um with the inflation issue, I mean obviously gas prices are are higher, fertilizers are increasing and such. Um, do you think this straighter her moose uh situation like the impacts from that is going to I mean that's one reason why we're seeing higher prices right uh do you think that this is going to continue in this direction or some people think that things are going to go back to normal at some point >> I don't even know what normal is anymore I think we may have changed normal but I you know I don't think this war is going to end anytime soon um because I don't see that we're ever going to achieve any of the objectives that we we set out to achieve, at least the way Trump laid them out. I think it's kind of a stalemate at this point where Trump is going to pretend that we have a victory.

3:56 But the only way he can keep pretending is to basically not officially surrender, but just to leave things the way they are and and keep making a bunch of noise. But the Iranians have already shown that they're not going to respond to those threats and they're dug in and I think they've already survived the worst of it. Uh, you know, so I think, you know, they've won in that sense that that they're still there. But I think they have a lot more power now economically than they did before. They have more control uh of in the region and more influence now and I think we have less. And so I think that, you know, you're going to have this supply bottleneck because the amount of oil going through that straight is going to be dramatically diminished. And that's going to keep prices much higher for everybody, not just the people who are, you know, buying oil directly from sources that that that travel through that that body of water, but oil is a global commodity.

5:01 And so if the price is going to go up everywhere. So even though we're not getting our oil through the straight, the people who were getting it are going to bid up the price of the oil that we're using. >> So you know, and again, as you said, it's not just oil, it's fertilizer, a lot of other things. But the upward pressure on prices are not is not just going to come from that. We have a lot of inflation in the pipeline. The Fed keeps printing money. Rates have been artificially low. We have been artificially stimulating demand through inflation and the impact is going to be rising prices for everything. Yes, energy prices, food prices may be particularly impacted, but I think Americans are going to be paying more for most things.

5:46 >> Yeah, I I do want to get your, you know, is this a nothing burger or what? Um, so the Fed has been increasing its balance sheet. uh you look at uh we're pretty much back to the levels of June of last year. I mean in the grand scheme of things like if folks look at like the you know the 5-year chart or the 10-year chart or whatnot you know it still seems relatively low but if you go within the last year you obviously see a pivot and their balance sheet continue to grow. Uh any thoughts on this?

6:18 >> Yeah I think this is a return to quantitative easing. They've stopped shrinking the balance sheet and it's expanded by more than 200 billion so far this year. Um, that's not nothing. And money supply is growing now at least 5% which would be very inconsistent if your goal for inflation is 2%. Um, but I think that's just the tip of this QE iceberg. I think that as the year uh you know goes on, I think the Fed is going to step up its bond buying, especially if interest rates really start to to spike here. If we break down in the bond market and we get a decisive move above 4.5% in the 10-year and we're knocking on the door right now, we're already above 5% in the 30-year. But if we start to see rates moving up, I think the Fed is going to step up and and try to cap that. And the only way it could do that is to actively start buying the long end of the curve. And and so I think the Fed's balance sheet is going to start to really expand faster as the Fed is moving into the market to prevent a much higher interest rates. Now, they're not going to really prevent it.

7:36 They may slow it down, but I think there's going to be a lot of political pressure on the Fed to do that. Of course, you're going to have Walsh in there uh as chair to do the president's bidding, and I'm sure that's part of the marching orders is, you know, do whatever you can to keep these interest rates down. >> Yeah. So with that balance sheet expansion, uh to my understanding this, you know, benefits assets, uh asset prices typically increase. Um but we know that Wall Street and Main Street are are two different um you know, two different situations, right? And so uh just curious in your thoughts on how does that impact Main Street? Is this just going to be more inflation and such and then those that have assets or those assets are going to just increase?

8:27 Curious your thoughts on that. >> Um yeah, you know, inflation obviously benefits asset prices because it pushes those prices higher just like it pushes up the price of goods pushes up asset prices. In real terms, it doesn't make those assets any more valuable. It just makes them more expensive. But if you own those assets, particularly if you have leverage, um it can make you wealthier when asset prices go up. But obviously the trade-off too is that it's not just asset prices, you know, it's not just the stock market, it's the supermarket. So a lot of people don't own assets, but they go to the supermarket every week, and everything they buy is going to be more expensive, and it doesn't benefit them if their food costs more money. uh you know they're just poor because they have to spend more money on food. So inflation always harms the poor and the middle class the most and this this is going to be no exception. The only thing is that US stocks are already so expensive and overpriced that even if there's a bunch of inflation prices still might come down. They just will come down less than they would have come down if the Fed had not provided all that inflation.

9:44 >> Mhm. Okay. So this is a a major issue. I mean, especially for like the the MAGA crowd, you know, those that wanted America to be put first and such. I mean, you have the affordability issue and such and and many believe that Donald Trump was going to address that issue and and keep America first and such, but you know, this seems to be the the opposite direction of of what many anticipated under under Trump's administration. And I'm curious in just like you know your thoughts because I love your political commentary too because you've been in that realm and and you can speak to that.

10:24 >> Um what does this mean for like midterm elections and and things of that nature? >> Well, I think I think Trump's in a lot of trouble with the midterms because I think a lot of the voters are going to feel betrayed by Trump. uh particularly uh you know the independent voters and and and Democrats who might have crossed party lines to vote for Trump. Um I think they're going to be very disappointed. I think he's still going to keep a lot of his his MAGA base, although he's going to lose some of that base. Uh but the problem is just losing some of it and losing a lot of independence is enough.

11:04 And you know, clearly the war in Iran is not really putting America first, especially when Trump promised not to uh start any wars. Uh he was very critical of prior presidents who, you know, started wars in the Middle East, Iraq, Afghanistan, saying they were some of the worst decisions that were made and that had he been president, it never would have happened. Well, he's president and now it's happening with Iran.

11:38 Uh, and you know, a lot of the policies that Trump claims put America first really don't. I mean, the tariffs didn't put America first. I mean, he claimed that foreigners were going to pay our tariffs. Uh, but no, it's American citizens that pay the tariffs. Uh, and you know, he acknowledged that really again today. He's talking about lowering tariffs on beef to help lower beef prices. which is an admission that tariffs increase beef prices. They're they're not paid for by foreign uh ranchers. They're paid for by American consumers who eat imported uh beef. And that's the same for all products that are subject to tariffs. It's the Americans that pay the tariffs. And you know, he hasn't addressed the underlying economic problems of runaway government spending. In fact, the government is spending more under his administration than the prior administration. the deficits are larger now than they were under Biden. So rather than solving the problems that got worse when Biden was president, he's just making them worse now. Uh and the economy is going to be the biggest problem because I think when voters go to the polls in November, they will be in worse shape economically than they were two years earlier when they voted for Trump.

12:56 And since Trump promised that voting for him would make everything better and that prices would fall immediately once he was elected, that we would not only stop the inflation, but reverse it. He didn't campaign to stop prices from going up. He campaigned to bring prices down. Mhm. >> And and so when inflation is as big a problem or bigger than it was under Biden, uh and the economy is weaker, um it's going to be a hard time for Republicans to to to maintain the House and the Senate. I mean, losing the House is a foregone conclusion because it's such a tight margin and it would be really unprecedented for the Republicans not to lose the House based on how midterms generally, you know, play out.

13:45 Um, but I think that the Democrats are going to get the Senate, and that is something that really is not expected or wasn't expected. Um, but I think that's going to happen, too. And it's also going to complicate the Republican chances in 2028 because I think as bad as things are in November of 2026, they'll be a lot worse in November of 2028. >> Yeah. Yeah, for sure. What do you think were Trump's biggest like missteps uh since he he took office? I mean, he he made a lot of the promises and such. Um obviously tariff tariff policy came out, which he he did promise that ahead of time and and I know you've been I mean you speak about these things like before they even happen, right? Uh so what do you think his biggest missteps were?

14:33 >> Well, he had a lot of missteps. I mean this war is obviously may end up being his biggest. We'll see. Uh but I think the big beautiful bill was a huge misstep. He had an opportunity the you know to try to do something to rein in government spending which is how he campaigned and he took the opposite approach. Um I think running Elon Musk out of town uh early on was a mistake. I think he should have supported Musk and embraced uh the spending cuts and instead he he basically sided with the swamp and um turned his back on what Musk was trying to do. So I think between the big beautiful bill, the tariffs, and now the war, uh those are kind of the biggest mistakes. There are a lot of smaller mistakes that that that he's made, but those those stand out, I think, as uh as as as the the worst ones.

15:35 >> We got all of the boxes ticked, and now we have one of the only shovel ready permitted projects in the US. >> It'll be Wyoming's first peritted mine. Is this correct? >> It'll be the first one in 100 years. US Gold Corp. is a near-term lowcost gold producer in Wyoming. To learn more, go to uscorp.com. >> So, these mistakes are obviously going to have a lot of implications on Main Street and such. And one of the things that I I really appreciate about you was when after the global financial crisis and you went out and you engaged uh I think it was Occupy Wall Street and such and so which was a populist group that that grew out of frustration of you know Wall Street policies and such and so what do you think like obviously the Fed's going to come in backs stop the government and create more issues of inflation affordability issues and all of that what do you think happens with with populism?

16:37 >> Well, I mean, obviously populism is popular by definition because you're appealing to kind of the emotions, the envy uh and the ignorance of of the masses, which is an inherent problem with democracy. If you're saying we're going to, you know, make law based on majority rules, uh, the majority is typically going to get things wrong. Uh, but yeah, I mean, that's been the downfall of every democracy is is populism, you know, because doing what's popular is rarely doing what's right, and doing what's right is rarely popular.

17:18 Um, you know, that's why the founding fathers, you know, didn't like democracies and that's why they tried their best to create a republic uh that insulated itself from the worst features of democracies and you know they succeeded for a while. I mean America was a shining example of republican government uh you know up through uh the early 20th century. you know, we started going backwards uh and of course now we've, you know, completely destroyed a lot of the safeguards that the framers built into the Constitution and now we're suffering the exact consequences that they had hoped to spare us from uh when they wrote the Constitution. So, uh we're basically living out uh what they warned us might happen.

18:03 Uh, and you know, with the benefit of hindsight, you know, maybe, you know, maybe they would have been better off establishing a monarchy. So, >> yeah. Yeah. I'm actually I got I got the book The Wealth of Nations on on my on my >> Well, the framers that that came out they they they were familiar with that book. Guess it came out, >> you know, around the time of the revolution. >> Yeah, that that's that's a hefty book to to to read. Uh, so I'm curious in your thoughts on um, you know, the debt to GDP. So I'm actually, you know, Visual Capitalist, they put out this um, these, you know, these charts and such and and, you know, one of these charts, you know, really stuck out to me because it was um, it was showing the uh, let me find it really quick. it was showing the um the debts GDP since 2005 from many different nations around the world and such. And so I want to get your reaction to this chart because it it's very concerning, you know, when I'm thinking about the um you know, the the future of of you know, the nation, but then also like you know, just the future of money, right? And so I'm going to actually share the screen here and just want to get your thoughts on this because it it doesn't seem like um there's a lot of uh countries that are that are out of the weeds on this. It's it's it's more than just the US. What it shows is that uh government debt as a percentage of GDP um for the world since 2005 it went from 68% to 95%.

19:48 Obviously the the US uh we went from 66% in 2005 to 125% of uh GDP. I mean even places like you know uh China went from 26% to 96% and such. And so many of these these nations are like over 100% of debt to GDP. And so what implications does this have for like the average people? >> Well, I mean we're over we're at about 122%. And and again that's just the funded debt, right? That $39.2 trillion of debt is the money the US government has borrowed and is obligated to repay.

20:32 But that doesn't include a lot of other liabilities that are just as real uh such as contingent liabilities where the government has guaranteed student loans uh or uh mortgages or pension funds or insurance products. the government stands behind this debt even though it didn't take on the debt. And so there those liabilities are going to be there. Um also unfunded liabilities where the government has committed to make payments like social security, Medicare, uh pensions, right? These are all liabilities of the government. The government owes this money but it's not part of the debt. So if you look at the total debt, everything the US government is obligated to pay and that it might realistically be called upon to pay, you're looking at over $150 trillion of debt. So you know, like four or five times the official national debt, which is already bad.

21:42 So I mean, we're completely insolvent as a nation. I mean, and you know, obviously there are a lot of problems there. Because either we have to default on these commitments or we have to inflate them away which from the perspective of the the recipient of the government money getting money of little value is kind of the same as not getting any money at all. So th those are major implications that the people who have been promised money by the US government are not going to get anything right. they're either going to get nothing or they're going to get something with no value.

22:22 >> So yeah, this is a very serious problem. And I think that's why you saw the big run up in gold as foreign central banks are getting out of dollars and out of treasuries because they can see uh what's going to happen that it's just a runaway debt. There is no potential uh for either party. Maybe the Trump administration was the last chance and we blew that. And so the world recognizes that no political party is going to do anything to prevent this train wreck. And in fact, if you look at a couple weeks ago, um, former Secretary of the Treasury Hank Pollson came out and said that the US needs to develop a emergency break the glass plan to deal with the crisis that will ensue when foreign demand for US treasuries is no longer sufficient, when foreigners don't want to buy our treasuries. He said, "We need to figure out how to deal with that disaster.

23:27 He did not say that we need to develop a plan to prevent that disaster. We should act now preemptively to put our fiscal house in order to avoid that disaster. No, no. He pretty much resigned himself to the fact that that's never going to happen, that the disaster is inevitable and that what we need to do is figure out how to deal with it. Uh, which is very telling in and of itself because, you know, there's no way to deal with it. We're we're we're screwed. That's what happens.

24:00 >> Yeah. Yeah. And so, for the audience that may not know, Hank Pollson was the uh Treasury Secretary under under Bush during the great financial crisis, right? >> Yes. And he was the architect of a lot of these problems. So now he's warning about the debt that he helped create because he was around when we did all the bailouts, the TARP program, you know, the bank bailouts, QE1, you know, all that started while he was in government, you know. Yeah. Yeah. So So what happens? I do want to get to the medals here in a in a minute. Um so the the trust fund for social security is scheduled to run out in I think uh 2032 2033.

24:40 Um, no politician is really talking about this. Um, >> well, the other part is that the trust fund is really just an accounting gimmick anyway because it's not a real trust fund. The only thing in the trust fund are US government bonds. And so the way the trust fund gets money to pay benefits is it takes those bonds and it sells them. Well, the US government could do that without the trust funds. So it it's just an illusion. All that happens when the trust fund runs out of government bonds is now the government has to sell the bonds itself. It can't sell the bonds that it's holding in its left pocket. It has to sell new bonds out of its right pocket. But it's it's the same pair of pants. So it's not a real trust fund.

25:31 Now if the trust fund had, you know, German government bonds in it, that would be different. If the trust fund had stock in it, you know, shares of IBM or something that it could go out and sell, that would be different. That would be an actual asset that was being used to meet obligations. But it doesn't. The trust fund has nothing but a government IOU, and the government can only make good on that IOU by going into the market and selling it to somebody, which is what it would do if there was no trust fund. So, the trust fund is just there as a it's really a fraud. to create the false impression that there's something funding social security when it's nothing more than a giant Ponzi scheme run by the US government.

26:17 >> Yeah. Yeah. So, so with that, they're saying like the payments are going to be reduced by I think 20% or something of that nature. And so, you know, for like younger Americans, you know, trying to navigate, I mean, should they just forget about social security? I mean, I I imagine that age is going to they're going to push the age up to like maybe 75 or something to to receive it. But >> yeah, look, I mean, most people, young people should just assume that it doesn't even exist.

26:48 >> Uh because for all practical purposes, it won't because if you get if you're in your 20s or your 30s and you get any money out of social security, it's not going to buy you very much. You won't be able to retire on it. Um but even people my age, I mean, I'm actually getting close. I'm 63. I mean, I, you know, obviously I guess I could start getting some money at some point. Um, but I haven't really give I I don't factor it into my retirement. Um, but I think that the big problem of social security is the burden that it places on the younger people who are still paying the tax. A lot of people pay more in social security taxes than they pay in income taxes. And it's very problematic.

27:32 Uh, also, you know, demographically, it's it's it's a very um discriminatory tax, it really favors children of the wealthy because what really happens is social security subsidizes their inheritance because their parents instead of using up their own assets, you spend social security and they can now live uh, you know, will what they didn't have to spend. and to their children. Well, children who grew up with poor parents don't get don't get that subsidy. Uh, and that's, you know, it's very it's, you know, for raised for African-Americans, they disproportionately aren't going to inherit money. So, they get harmed. And also, life expecties in African-Americans, it's it's lower than for white. And a lot of people don't even live long enough to collect their benefits.

28:28 >> Yeah. Yeah, you know, I mean, if you die, you know, at 64 and you don't get any benefits, you know, you've paid taxes. It's not like, you know, it's an asset that you could leave to your kids. Now, there is a way that I guess a spouse, a surviving spouse can pick up some some benefits. Um, but, you know, the people who would gain the most are people who have longevity, you know. >> Yeah. >> Um, but that's only for the people who got in a long time ago. I mean, the people who are pay 20s and 30s now, I mean, forget about it. I don't care how long they live, they're not they're never going to see value for social security. Uh, the people who made out on social security, a lot of them have already died. They started paying taxes in the 30s or 40s or 50s and they paid very little and they they ended up with a windfall.

29:19 >> Mhm. >> Which is how all Ponzi schemes work. If you get in early, you make a lot of money. But that's all based on the losses suffered by the people who get in laid. And the generations that follow my generation, the generations that follow the baby boom, they're the bag holders when it comes to social security. >> Yeah. Yeah. I I've definitely been been pondering that and, you know, making decisions in my life that could that could help me navigate those those um those challenges. So >> yeah, you know, there's been situations I've read stories about where people get like a terminal diagnosis from a doctor, right? The doc, let's say you're 40, 50 years old and the doctor says, you know, you got 5 years to live. You still can't get out of social security. You have to keep paying it, >> right? You can't get it. You can't you can't get out of it even though you're never going to be able to collect it.

30:17 >> Wow. Yeah. >> It's like you right. You still have to you still have to make the payments. >> Wow. That's that's a big scam. Uh so um how critical is is it for average people to own gold? I mean it it seems like gold is the I wouldn't say the only alternative but um I mean when you think about the amount of debt, the amount of inflation, uh I mean social security is not going to be around and such. Um, I mean, preserving your personal power is is a is a critical, you know, thing. Uh, >> yeah. I mean, I think it's important, maybe you could say critical, that everybody owns some gold and and I mean, most people have some gold. They have it in jewelry. Um, now, you know, in order to access it, they would have to melt it down or sell it to somebody who would melt it down. Uh, but most people would should have monetary gold, too. They shouldn't just rely on on on pawning their jewelry when times get tough. Um because jewelry could have a lot of sentimental value and other value that far exceeds the melt value of the gold.

31:28 So it's better to go out and buy gold, buy silver and have it so that you're not forced, you know, hawking your your your your family heirlooms in order to in order to pay the bills. Um, and yeah, that that you know that I'm helping people at Shift Gold uh take physical possession of gold and silver. And in fact, I have a new uh program there called T- Gold where you can buy the gold and silver and we don't take delivery. We'll have it stored for you and you can buy it in very small increments. You can buy, you know, little bits at a time and take delivery later if that's what you want. And I'm actually going to develop that platform ultimately for e-commerce for people to use their gold as a medium of exchange uh to withdraw it in a token. So there'll be a lot of functionality uh when it comes time to you know where you really need to use gold.

32:23 >> Right now the main the main benefit is just to have it as a store of value. >> Yeah. So there's a lot of projections from like the Congressional Budget Office and and and such that the US debt could be, you know, in hundreds of trillions in in the next uh what 40 years, 50 years or so. >> Well, it's already there, right? When when you talk about the contingencies, so you know. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> The unfunded liabilities.

32:53 >> Yeah. And so I'm kind of wondering like it seems like gold is going to go a lot higher. Um >> Oh yeah. I mean look all you have to do is look at you know where we started. You know when the Federal Reserve was created in 1913 gold was $20 an ounce and it was $20 an ounce in 1792 during the first coinage act of the United States. And it was still $22 an ounce in 1933 when Nixon devalued the dollar and now it cost $35. And then it stayed at $35 until 1971.

33:36 So for almost 200 years of American history, the price of gold was no higher than $35 an ounce. And for most of that history, it was $20 an ounce. Now, in our fiat monetary system of runaway deficit spending, gold's gone from $35 or start from the beginning $20. It's now almost $5,000 an ounce. So, why would that stop? Why why is that trend that's been here uh since 1971 where gold has gone up so much, why would it stop going up? It's not all of the the forces that drove gold from $35 an ounce to $5,000 an ounce. They're still in play. And you know, that's why the Dow is at $50,000. That's why everything costs so much. It's not that it's inherently more valuable. It's that the the money that we're using to buy it is that much less valuable. So, you need a lot of money. And in fact, just go back to the year 1999 2000 when the Dow was 10,000 and people say, "Oh, look, it's 50,000 now. It's gone up five times." Yeah, but back then gold was 300. Gold's up more than 10 times. So, that tells you that the stock market isn't isn't up. The stock market is down. It's down about 70% if you price it in gold. It's only when you price it in that, you know, fiat money that that that you get a bigger number. I mean, I was just reading an article just today that in many US cities, you have to earn over a h 100,000 a year now to be lower middle class.

35:21 >> Lower middle class. I mean, $100,000 a year used to be a big number that would, you know, oh, you're rich if you earn $100,000 a year. Now you now you're barely not poor if you earn $100,000 a year. Wow. Yeah. So, it seems like the stock market, I mean, it it's continuing to make, you know, new highs and such. Um, and that seems like a illusion as well, you know, in terms of, you know, how much purchasing power, you know, holders of 401ks and and such. I mean, because that that keeps being brought up by the administration like, oh, you know, 401ks are booming and and things of that nature. But like when you measure those in gold, you know, they're they haven't made new highs and um I mean it is just in dollars that are that are just you know a lot of value >> Donald Trump is very critical of the Biden economy and you know I mean yeah I was critical of it too but at least it's not hypocritical of me to be critical of it but he criticized the Biden economy as the worst economy in the history of America.

36:30 and now we have the best economy. And so he credits himself for the greatest economic turnaround in history. But the main thing he has to point to to evidence how great our economy is is the stock market and how much the stock market is up. But that ignores the fact that the stock market did better under Biden. It was up under Biden, too. It was just up more. So if you're going to say that the stock market is the benchmark of how good the economy is, well then you got to say that Biden's economy was better than Trump's. And in fact, if you if you use GDP, Biden's economy was better than Trump's.

37:11 Trump last year the GDP grew at 2.1%. The lowest of the Biden years I think was 2.6 maybe. Biden's last year was 2.9. So Trump's first year was lower than any year under Biden. Uh the number of jobs created so far since Trump's been president is far below the jobs created, you know, by Biden. Not that Biden created that many, but Trump hasn't really created any. And the numbers have been a disaster. In fact, the number of full-time jobs is lower now than it was when Trump was elected or when when he took office. So, you know, there's no there's nothing that you could point to that would say that we have a better economy. Yes, inflation is measured by the CPI is lower, but the high inflation under Biden started under Trump and the worst inflation under Biden was the first year or two, which was kind of left over from his administration, which got that going. But by the time Biden left office, inflation had come down. Now, it's coming back up. In fact, it's higher now. this year is going to be higher. CPI is going to go up more this year than it did in 2024. So inflation is on the upswing now, not on the decline, and it's going to keep on rising. I think the worst year for inflation under Trump is going to be his last year, the opposite of what we saw under Biden.

38:32 >> Mhm. Yeah. So, Peter, uh, with with our last bit of time, um, I'm curious in your thoughts on the the mining stocks. Uh, so you you have a few funds that that invest in some of the the mining stocks and such. Do you think that's a better value compared to like the physical metal at this point? I'm just curious your thoughts on that. >> Well, I I I think I think they're different uh assets. I think everybody should own uh physical gold and silver.

39:04 Not necessarily everybody should own mining stocks, but I believe that if you're an investor and you have the higher risk tolerance, that the riskreward in the stocks is a lot better than in the metal as far as how much you could make. I think they're still very very cheap assets. And you know my mutual fund uh the Europe Pacific uh gold fund EPGIX which I I have a phenomenal portfolio diversified portfolio with a lot of exposure to the juniors uh which are the riskier part of the spectrum. We kind of offset that by overweighting the royalty companies which are the more conservative part of that that spectrum but also by having a manager like Adrien Day who is you know an excellent stock picker in the space. Uh there's a tremendous amount of upside there and you know the minimum is only 2500 bucks to buy my fund and it's no load at any major discount brokerage firm. You could also buy it at my website at europac.com. But then we also have separately managed accounts where we manage portfolios for individuals of mining stocks in addition to the other types of portfolios we manage which are broader income oriented portfolios you know with foreign foreign stocks, foreign bonds, emerging markets. We do have these mining focused portfolios, but I think investors have yet to price in the economic reality of how much money these companies are going to earn because they have no idea how high the price of gold is going to be. In fact, for years as the price of gold was rising, the experts kept expecting it to fall. All the people on Wall Street, they didn't understand why it was going up. So, they figured it was unsustainable.

40:44 uh you know, none of these stocks have really been repriced to reflect the reality that not only are gold prices not going to come crashing down, but they're going to keep going up. So that gold prices in the future are likely to be even higher than they are in the present. And when Wall Street wakes up to this reality, they're going to rerate these stocks and I think they just go through the roof. So, you know, you want to maximize your exposure, you know, uh before that happens. just, you know, make sure you don't, you know, you don't invest too much because, you know, it's a risky sector. But if you're going to take risks, I'd much rather take risks here than in, you know, AI stocks or, you know, crypto or something like that.

41:25 >> Mhm. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Uh, shout out to Adrien Day. Uh, Adrian Day is a really good dude. Uh, he he uh he's come on the show a few times and he's done a course on our commodity university on royalty and streaming companies. So, I always appreciate his his insights. Uh just lastly, I've been looking at foreign currencies. I keep I keep hearing about foreign currencies versus the dollar. Um interested if you any have any thoughts on that if if that could be of uh value to anyone.

41:54 >> Yeah. Well, a lot of people, you know, make the mistake of just thinking the dollar wins by default, that we're the cleanest dirty shirt in a hamper. And you know, I think there are a lot of currencies that are not quite as dirty as the dollar. I mean, they all, you know, have dirt. Uh, the one that's not in the hamper at all is gold. And I don't even look at gold as a currency. I look at gold as money uh rather than a currency.

42:23 Um, but the dollar has a unique position as the reserve currency. And so, it's uniquely positioned to lose that. And so, I think that the risks for the dollar far outweigh the risks of other major currencies. And so I think it's very important that people who are holders of dollars you know which would be you know you American citizens by and large they really need to protect themselves. They really need to diversify out of the dollar and the best alternative monetary uh equivalent would be gold and silver you know. So that's what they should do with the dollars they don't need. Their long-term savings could be in gold and silver. Their investments can be in mining stocks and other stocks, but their long-term savings, the dry powder, the money they want to keep, can't be in US dollars because you may succeed in keeping your dollars, but you're not going to succeed in keeping your purchasing power. And that's what's really important. I mean, it doesn't matter how many dollars you have if you can't buy anything with them. What counts is what you can buy with your dollars, not how many you have. And there, I think gold's going to win.

43:32 you'll buy a lot more with gold. I mean, just think about somebody in 1971 if they, you know, buried a stack of dollars in the ground and dug them up today, right? If they put $35 in the ground, you know, what could they buy with $35 relative to what $35 used to buy in 1971? But if they had put an ounce of gold in the ground and they dug it up today and they got $5,000, you know, they they can buy a lot, right? That is the difference. Think about that over a 50-year period. It's a difference between having $35 and having $5,000.

44:15 >> Mhm. >> And I think you can see something similar, you know, over the next 10 years. Let's say gold rises to 20,000, right? You could take $5,000 and bury it in the ground and in 10 years you'd have $5,000 or if you buried the gold you'd have 20,000, right? You'd be able to buy a lot more. >> Yeah. Yeah, definitely. Well, Peter, I appreciate you and your time for coming on the show and everything. Uh, where can the audience uh connect with you or I know you have you have a lot going on.

44:45 You have your own podcast. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, they can listen to my podcast on shiftradio.com or on my YouTube channel or anywhere that they have podcasts, you know, iTunes, Stitcher. I mean, you could look for the Peter Shift Show podcast. Uh, if you want to follow me on X, I'm, you know, almost every day I'm pretty much posting. Uh, if there's a news item that's out, you know, you're going to get my take. You know, I've got, you know, over 1.4 million people following me now on X. So, I'm starting to build up a a platform there. Uh, but also subscribe to my YouTube channels and other social media, Instagram, you know, Tik Tok. I mean, I'm I'm putting out stuff uh that you can share with your friends to try to help educate them as well. And you can become a client of mine, of course, by buying my mutual funds. You can get information on my mutual funds at my website, europac.com.

45:38 Or you can become a direct client of my asset management company by opening up an account. Or you can also buy gold and silver from me at shiftgold.com. >> Yeah. which I would encourage everybody to do. I mean, everybody should have some gold or silver, you know, regardless, right? It's just too It's like it's insurance. Everybody needs to have some insurance in case things go wrong. And the thing with with this is we know things are going to go wrong.

46:02 It's not in case they go wrong, they're going to go wrong. >> So, you're going to need some gold and silver. >> Yeah. Yeah. For sure. Yeah. I always appreciate your insights. I mean, especially just how you break it down for the for the the average audience to understand many of these complex topics and such. And so, >> always appreciate your thoughts, Peter. You all be sure to uh hit the subscribe button. Love to have have your support.

46:25 And thank you all for watching. >> All right. Take care.