Transcript
0:01 THEY ARE TRADING HIGHER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE DOW FUTURES ARE UP BY ABOUT 50 POINTS. S&P FUTURES UP BY 24. THE NASDAQ FUTURES UP BY CLOSE TO 200. WE'LL START THIS HOUR WITH A LOOK AT TECH STOCKS IN 2026. AND JOINING US FOR THAT IS GENE MUNSTER. HE IS MANAGING PARTNER WITH DEEPWATER ASSET MANAGEMENT. AND GENE WELCOME. IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU TODAY. >> HELLO. >> WHY DON'T WE START TALKING ABOUT AI BECAUSE THAT WAS THE DOMINATING STORY IN TECHNOLOGY FOR 2025. AND EARLY IN 2025. IT WAS A CHINESE COMPANY, DEEPKI, THAT THREW OFF PEOPLE'S IDEAS ABOUT WHAT AI WAS GOING TO BE IN THE UNITED STATES. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW? WHAT'S YOUR EXPECTATION FOR AI HERE? WILL IT BE CHALLENGED? AND IS THIS A PLACE THAT YOU THINK IS GOING TO SEE HIGHER STOCK PRICES THIS YEAR?
0:56 >> I MEAN, AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL, I THINK WE'RE STILL EARLY IN THIS BROADER AI TRADE. I STILL THINK WE HAVE 2 TO 3 YEARS LEFT OF A POSITION WHERE THE NASDAQ PERFORMS PLUS 10%, LARGELY DRIVEN BY AI. AND I THINK AI FIRST COMPANIES CONTINUE TO MOVE HIGHER THAN THAT. SO I'M MOST OPTIMISTIC. I RECOGNIZE THAT THAT THEME OF STILL BEING EARLY IS A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PLACE WITH WHERE THE MARKET'S BEEN SINCE THE END OF OCTOBER, WHEN WE STARTED TO SEE A SHIFT AFTER META'S RESULTS AND NVIDIA'S RESULTS, WHERE THERE HAS BEEN MORE SKEPTICISM, KIND OF A LITTLE BIT OF THAT DEEP FEAR THAT YOU TALKED ABOUT CREEPING BACK INTO INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY. BUT THE BIG PICTURE IS THIS IS THAT THESE COMPANIES ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW IN CALENDAR 26 FASTER THAN WHAT EXPECTATIONS? I CAN GIVE YOU TWO QUICK EXAMPLES. FOXCONN REPORTED THEIR DECEMBER QUARTER TODAY. THEY ARE NOT ONLY A CUSTOMER OF NVIDIA, BUT ALSO A PARTNER. THEY MANUFACTURE SOME OF NVIDIA GPUS. THEY GREW AT 22%. THE STREET WAS LOOKING FOR 13%. THAT'S AN 8% REVENUE UPSIDE. SO THAT'S AN INDICATION WE'RE CONTINUING IN THAT SPOT OF HIGHER FOR LONGER.
2:05 SEPARATELY TONIGHT WE'RE GOING TO GET AT FOUR EASTERN. JENSEN'S GOING TO FROM NVIDIA IS GOING TO BE GIVING HIS KEYNOTE AT CES. THE LAST TIME HE GAVE A BIG KEYNOTE WAS BACK ON OCTOBER 28TH. HE GAVE GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY FOR 54% REVENUE GROWTH THIS YEAR. THE STREET'S AT 50 AND THAT EXCLUDES CHINA AND ANY NEW BOOKINGS. SO I SUSPECT THAT NVIDIA IS PROBABLY GOING TO GROW 65% PLUS THIS YEAR. AND THEN LASTLY, 930 EASTERN TONIGHT WE'RE GOING TO GET SUE FROM AMD. SHE'S GOING TO GIVE A KEYNOTE ALSO AT CES. AND I EXPECT HER MESSAGE TO BE PRETTY PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD THAT WE'RE STILL EARLY. SO BECKY WHEN I PUT ALL THIS TOGETHER I RECOGNIZE THIS FEELS LIKE TOO WELL-TRAVELED OF A PLAYBOOK TO CONTINUE TO BE A SUCCESS. THIS CONTINUE TO BE LONG AI, BUT I'M OPTIMISTIC THAT THE NUMBERS ARE STILL TOO LOW FOR THIS YEAR.
2:57 WE'RE STILL EARLY. >> YEAH. GENE, JUST IN TERMS OF WHAT YOU'RE ANTICIPATING, LET'S START WITH NVIDIA. YOU SAID THE STREETS OF 50%, YOU'RE LOOKING FOR 65% OR EVEN NORTH OF THAT THIS YEAR. YOU THINK JEN-HSUN HUANG IS GOING TO LAY THAT OUT TODAY, OR DO YOU THINK HE'LL BE A LITTLE MORE CAUTIOUS IN WHAT HE'S EXPLAINING OR DESCRIBING? BECAUSE, I MEAN, THOSE ARE PRETTY LOFTY EXPECTATIONS TO TRY AND BE. >> WELL, THE 54, IT'S IT'S NOT LOFTY IF YOU THINK THAT THEY CAN GROW 65% PLUS AND IT'S NOT LOFTY IF YOU BELIEVE WE'RE STILL EARLY IN THIS AND SO DO YOU.
3:29 >> THINK HE'S GOING TO SIGNAL THAT TODAY? I REALIZE THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR. BUT DO YOU THINK HE'LL ACTUALLY SAY THAT TODAY? BECAUSE SO MUCH OF WHAT HAPPENS IN THE MARKET IS EXPECTATIONS BEATING EXPECTATIONS, BEING ABLE TO ANTICIPATE THAT THINGS ARE GOING TO BE EVEN BETTER THAN THAN WHAT THEY'VE SAID TO THIS POINT. >> YEAH. THANKS FOR THE CLARIFICATION THERE. I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS I EXPECT HIM TO REITERATE HIS COMMENTS FROM OCTOBER 28TH. WE EXPECT $500 BILLION IN CUMULATIVE BLACKWELL AND RUBIN REVENUE THROUGH THE END OF CALENDAR 26. THAT IMPLIES 54% GROWTH. I ALSO BELIEVE THAT HE WILL REITERATE THAT THAT EXCLUDES ANY CHINA REVENUE AND EXCLUDES ANY ADDITIONAL BOOKINGS, WHICH I THINK HE WILL MAKE INDICATIONS THAT THINGS CONTINUE TO BE STRONG. AND SO I THINK THE EXACT DETAILS OF HIS GUIDANCE ARE GOING TO SAY THIS 54% NUMBER, BUT THERE'S UPSIDE TO IT. AND I THINK IT COMES DOWN TO I THINK THAT THAT GAP BETWEEN WHERE THE STREET'S AT VERSUS WHAT NVIDIA HAS BEEN SAYING, WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE MARKETPLACE FROM FOXCONN TODAY, THAT GAP GIVES YOU A SENSE OF KIND OF SOME OF THE APPREHENSION THAT INVESTORS HAVE, THAT ANALYSTS HAVE THAT THIS BULL MARKET IS GOING TO CONTINUE. BUT TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, YES, I THINK THAT TODAY'S GOING TO BE A GOOD DAY FOR NVIDIA. I THINK TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE A GOOD DAY, TOO, BECAUSE I THINK JENSEN'S COMMENTS ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO REITERATE THAT THEY ESSENTIALLY CAN'T KEEP UP WITH DEMAND.
4:53 >> IS THAT YOUR FAVORITE PICK? NVIDIA. >> SO WE DEEPWATER WE DO OWN NVIDIA. SO THAT'S I THINK IF YOU WANT TO KNOW WHAT OUR FAVORITE PICKS ARE LOOK AT WHAT'S IN OUR PORTFOLIO NVIDIA IS IN THERE I THINK FOR CALENDAR 26. GOOGLE IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE A BIG SURPRISE. TODAY. SAMSUNG TALKED ABOUT DOUBLING THEIR GEMINI DEVICES FOR CALENDAR 20 TO 800 MILLION SHIPPED THIS YEAR VERSUS 400 MILLION NEXT YEAR. SO GOOGLE AT ALSO AT THE TOP OF THE LIST.
5:21 AND THIS FOXCONN NEWS THAT I TALKED ABOUT IS ALSO POSITIVE