Transcript
0:00 Daario Amodai Anthropic just set the price for one of the biggest stock market debuts in history. 825 million shares at 70 to78 each up to $64 billion raised and a value of up to $1.4 trillion. Trading could start on November 19th and millions of ordinary Americans will be able to abide in. Anthropic wants about 20% of the shares to go to regular investors far more than usual. So the question everyone is searching for is simple. Is this the chance of a lifetime or the top of a bubble? History has a lot to say about that. Netscape, Yoo, Facebook, Alo, Yur Ruin. Every giant tech IPO comes with the same excitement and they ended in very different places.
1:00 In this video, we go through the facts, 10 real IPO stories, the patterns they share, and what history says happens next. Every source is in the description. First, the facts. On Tuesday, November 10th, Anthropic filed an updated prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It plans to list on the NASDAQ under the ticker NT. According to CNBC, it expects to price the shares on November 18th and start trading the next day. The numbers in the filing are enormous. Revenue for the first 9 months of the year was about $33 billion, up roughly 1,200% from a year earlier.
1:50 And Anthropic says its revenue run rate reached about $81 billion at the end of October, up from about 71 billion in September. But so are the losses. CNBC reports a net loss of about $14 billion for those 9 months. Most of it comes from accounting changes in the value of convertible notes and other liabilities, not from cash going out the door. Still, it is one of the biggest losses ever shown in an IPO filing. The price is lower than the height. Weeks ago, reports said Anthropic could aim for $2 trillion. The new range values it at up to 1.4 trillion on a fully diluted basis. One investor told CNBC that even 1 and a half trillion was a stretch. In May, a private funding round valued anthropic at about 965 billion. The man looks strong. CNBC reports the order book was already covered across the price range and that institutional demand was stronger than for Space X at the same stage and seven partners AMD Broadcom, Google, Migron, Microsoft, Nvidia and TSMC agreed to buy $26 billion of special nonvoting shares at the IPO price. Even the process has been dramatic. According to 24/7 Wall Street on November 9th, a draft sent to bankers showed about 867 million shares at 70 to $80. Within about 80 minutes, the company called that range inaccurate. The official numbers came a day later and the timing is risky.
3:53 Fortune reports that the NASDAQ fell five and a half% last week after Democrats gains in the midterm elections raised fears of stricter AI rules and closer scrutiny of data centers. On Monday and video, one of Anthropic's key partners closed down more than 4% as its board investigated CEO Jensen Huang. Sam Alman's Open AI, Anthropic's biggest rival, has already said no to a public listing this year. In October, Alman said, "Right now would be an ill- advised moment to go public, and we don't feel pressure on that." Open AI is raising private money instead. Axio's writer Dan Primax summed up Anthropic's dilemma in September. Anthropobic needs to do a financing event. He wrote, "The only question is what kind?" And he warned, "Wall Street might choke on the losses and you only get one chance to make a first impression." There is one more twist. The filing itself contains some of the most unusual warnings ever written in a perspectus. Anthropics says using AI to build more capable AI could also pose a considerable safety risk, particularly if it sharply accelerates the pace of progress. Fortune reports the filing says internal estimates indicate anthropics models may imminently meet a threshold in its safety policy. Roughly a doubling in the pace of AI progress driven by AI automating research. The company says no current model has crossed it and that it is considering changes to keep humans in control of frontier model development.
5:54 This is the same company whose chief executive Daario Amodai wrote an essay in September asking the industry to pace the frontier. On Monday, it released its most powerful models yet. Claude Fable 5.2 and Claude Mythos 5.2. Now it asks the public to buy in. So what does history say? Story one. On August 9th, 1995, a small company called Netscape, maker of the first popular web browser, went public. The shares were priced at $28.
6:36 They opened at $71. The company was barely a year old and had never made a profit. Netscape's debut showed Wall Street that internet companies could be worth billions before they made money. It is often called the start of the com boom. Over the next 5 years, hundreds of internet companies rushed to go public, many with little more than an idea. But Netscape itself did not last. Microsoft bundled its own browser, Internet Explorer, with Windows, and Netscape's market share collapsed. In 1998, AOL agreed to buy Netscape for about $4 billion. The company that started the boom was gone within 4 years. The lesson from Netscape is that being first is not the same as winning. A historic IPO can mark the beginning of a revolution. And the revolution can still be won by someone else. For anthropic, the rivals are Open AI, Google, and Meta. All with deep pockets. Story two bubble. By March 10th, 2000, the NASDAQ hit a peak of about 5,048 points. Companies with no profits were worth billions.
8:07 Then the bubble burst. By October 2002, the NASDAQ had lost about 78% of its value. Trillions of dollars of paper wealth disappeared. Many ordinary investors who bought at the top lost most of their money. But here is the part people forget. And it was real. Amazon, which went public in 1997 and fell more than 90% in the crash, became one of the most valuable companies on earth. The bubble was about prices, not about whether the technology would change the world. The lesson from the era is the most AI. A technology can be revolutionary and its stocks can still be overpriced.
8:58 Both things can be true at the same time. The winners of the bubble are often only clear many years later. Story three, the founders who did it their way. In August 2004, Google went public at $85 a share using an unusual online auction designed to let ordinary investors in. Wall Street bankers hated it. Many investors thought the price was too high. Google raised about $1.7 billion, valuing it at around $23 billion. On the first day, the stock closed at about $100. Critics said it was a bubble all over again. Just 4 years after the crash. In their letter to future shareholders, the founders wrote a line that became famous. Google is not a conventional company. We do not intend to become one. They warn investors they would make long-term bets that might hurt shortterm results. And they kept control through special voting shares.
10:07 They were wrong. Google's parent company, Alphabet, is now worth trillions of dollars. An investor who bought on day one and held on made one of the best investments in history. and Google is now one of Anthropic's biggest investors and partners. The lesson from Google is that an IPO that looks expensive can still be cheap if the company keeps growing for decades and that founders who insist on control as Larry Page and Sergy Brin did can build lasting companies. Anthropic is also structured to keep its founders and mission in control. Anthropic is also not a conventional company. It is a public benefit corporation which means its directors must weigh its mission, not only profits. And a created a body called the long-term benefit trust designed to help elect board members focused on safety. Public investors will be buying into that structure with all its tradeoffs. Story four, the disaster that became a triumph. On May 18th, 2012, Facebook went public at $38, raising about $16 billion and valuing the company at about $14 billion. It was the biggest tech IPO ever at the time.
11:39 It went badly from the first minute. Technical glitches at the NASDAQ delayed trading and confused orders. The stock barely stayed above $38 on day one. Then it kept falling. By September 2012, it was below $18, less than half the IPO price. Critics said Facebook could not make money on smartphones. Mark Zuckerberg admitted the stock's performance was disappointing, but the company shifted everything to mobile advertising. By August 2013, the stock was back above $38.
12:19 Today, Meta is worth well over a trillion. The lesson from Facebook is that a bad first year says little about the long run. What matters is whether the company solves its biggest problem. For Facebook, it was mobile. For Anthropic, it is turning huge revenue growth into real profits. Story five. The record that ended with a warning. In September 2014, Jack Ma Alibaba went public in New York, raising about $25 billion, the biggest IPO in history at the time. The shares were priced at $68 and closed the first day near 94. For years, Alibaba was one of the world's most valuable companies. But in November 2020, days after Jack Ma criticized Chinese regulators, the record IPO of his financial company and group was suspended at the last minute. Alibaba's stock went on to lose most of its value over the next 2 years. The lesson from Alibaba is that governments matter. A company can be huge, popular, and profitable and still be hit by politics.
13:41 Anthropic is entering the market just after midterm elections that investors fear could bring stricter AI rules. Regulation is now a real risk for FAA stock. Story six, the Y hype metality. In May 2019, Yuber went public at $45. It had once been talked about as a $120 billion company. At the bio, it was valued at about 82 billion. On the first day, the stock fell more than 7%. Yuber had huge revenue, but also huge losses and investors in 2019 were no longer willing to pay any price for growth. It took years for Yuber to become consistently profitable. Its stocks bet long stretches below the APO price. The same year, we work tried to go public at the valuation once said to be about $47 billion. Its filing revealed huge losses and unusual control by its founder, Adam Newman. Investors revolted. In September 2019, Newman stepped down as chief executive and the IPO was pulled. The lesson from 2019 is that the IPO filing is the moment of truth. Private investors may accept stories. Public investors read the numbers. Anthropics filing shows explosive growth, but also giant losses and unusual safety warnings. The market will now judge all of it. And let me ask you something quickly. If you want to know how the anthropic IPO actually goes on November 19th and what happens to the stock after, subscribe to 2,100 so you do not miss the followup. Now back to history story seven, the trillion debut. In December 2019, Saudi Aramco, the state oil company, raised about $25.6 $6 billion, beating Alibaba's record. It was valued at about $1.7 trillion and on its first days of trading briefly touched $2 trillion. Aramco was differed from tech startups. It was already hugely profitable, but it sold only a small slice of its shares, mostly to local investors, and its price was heavily influenced by the Saudi government. Big valuations of it IPO depend on who is buying not only on the business. Then came Space X. In June 2026, Alon Musk took Space X public in a record IPO, valuing it at close to $2 trillion. CNBC reports its market value today is roughly where it was at the IPO after big swings including a fall below its IPO price earlier this month. The lesson from the trillion dollar debuts is that a giant valuation on day one is not a guarantee of gains. Huge IPOs are often priced so that most of the value is already in the price. Anthropic would be one of only a handful of companies ever to debut near a trillion dollars.
17:15 Story eight. The rocket that crashed 5 years ago, almost to the day on November 10th, 2021, electric truck maker Rivian went public at $78 a share, raising about $12 billion. Within a week, the stock had more than doubled and Rivian was worth more than Ford or General Motors. Rivian had barely started delivering trucks. Then interest rates started rising in 2022 and investors turned against companies with big losses. By the end of 2022, Riven's stock had fallen about 90% from its peak. The lesson from Rivian is that interest rates matter as much as the product. CNBC reports that investors are worried rising rates could make debt for expensive AI infrastructure harder to afford. Companies that need huge amounts of capital like AI labs are the most exposed when money gets more expensive.
18:26 Story nine. D AI debut that worked. In September 2023, ship designer arm went public at $51 a share. It rose about 25% on the first day. Investors were betting that ARMS designs would power the AI boom. R became one of the best performing big IPOs of the decade, riding the same AI wave that lifted Nvidia. The lesson is that when an IPO sits right in the middle of a real technology shift, investors can still make money even after a strong first day. So, what do these 10 stories have in common? Pattern one, the first day is a terrible guide.
19:13 Facebook was flat and then soared over the years. Rivian soared and then crashed. Netscape soared and then disappeared. What happens on November 19th will say very little about where Anthropic is in five years pattern too. The biggest IPOs often come near the top of a cycle. Netscape and Pets come in the late '9s boom. Rivian came at the peak of the 2021 boom. Companies go public when investors are excited because that is when the price is highest. Pattern three, losses get forgiven only if growth continues.
19:56 Facebook, Amazon, and Yuber all had doubters. The ones that recovered kept growing fast and eventually showed profits. Anthropobics revenue growth is extraordinary. The question is how long it can last. Pattern four, outside forces decide a lot. Interest rates sank Rivian. Politics hit Alibaba. A market crash buried the dotcom stocks. Anthropic has all three on its radar right now. Rising rates, a new political climate, and an AI selloff. And pattern five, the technology itself usually wins even when early investors lose. The internet changed the world even though the NASDAQ fell 78%.
20:47 If AI is as big as its builders say. The question is not whether AI wins, it is which company is and at what price. So what does history say happens next? Here is a map of the dates to watch. First, the road show. According to Bloomberg, as reported by Inves, a livereamed event with Daario Amodai and JP Morgan's Jaime Dimmond could happen as early as November 13th. How investors react will shape the final price. Second, November 18th, that is the expected pricing day and also the day Congress has asked Nvidia's Jensen Juan for a closed door briefing. If the man is strong, history says the price could land at the top of the range or even above it. If the AI selloff deepens, it could land lower.
21:47 Third, November 19th, the first day of trading. History says big hyped IPOs often jump on day one like Netscape and Alibaba. But Facebook and Yuber show they can also disappoint with 20% going to retail investors. Expect huge volume and wild swings. Fourth, the first earnings report as a public company likely in early 2027. That is when public investors will see whether revenue keeps growing toward that $81 billion run rate and whether the losses shrink. Facebook's first earnings reports pushed its stock down. Google's lifted it. Fifth, the lock up. Insiders and early investors usually cannot sell for several months after an IPO. When that period ends, the stock often comes under pressure. Facebook fell sharply around its lock up expirations in 2012.
22:54 CNBC notes that the 26 billion dollar of partner shares will not be subject to lockups. Put it together and history suggests the most likely path is a strong debut followed by a volatile first year where the stock moves with the AI trade and with anthropics results. The bigger question whether Anthropic becomes the next Google or the next Netscape will take years to answer.
23:25 What does this mean for you? If you are thinking about buying on day one, remember Facebook and Rivian. IPO prices are set when excitement is highest. Many professional investors wait for the first earnings reports before buying. This is not financial advice and you should never invest money you cannot afford to lose. If you own an index fund, you may end up owning anthropic anyway once it qualifies for major indexes. That is how most Americans already own Google, Meta, and Nvidia.
24:03 Diversification has protected ordinary investors through every boom and bust in this story. And if you use AI tools at work, this matters too. A public anthropic will face pressure every quarter to grow revenue. That could mean faster product releases, new pricing, and more business deals. Public companies answer to shareholders and that changes how they behave. Finally, the safety question. Anthropic was founded by people who left open AI over concerns about AI safety. Its filing now warns that AI could soon speed up AI research itself. As a public company, it will have to balance that mission with Wall Street's demands. Its co-founders wrote that everyone who owns a stock becomes part of that effort. Let us be clear about what is known. Anthropic has filed to sell 825 million shares at 70 to78 on the NASDAQ under the ticker NT. It reports explosive revenue growth and giant mostly accountingdriven losses and it is going public during an AI sell-off. What is not known is the final price, how the stock will trade, and whether entropics growth can last long enough to justify a trillion dollar value. History says those answers will come over years, not days. And they will depend on things no filing can predict, like the next breakthrough, the next rival model, and the next crash. 31 years ago, Netscape's IPO started the internet age and the company was gone four years later. 20 years ago, Google's IPO looked expensive and became one of the best deals ever. Anthropic will be one of those two stories. The question is which one? So, what do you think?
26:10 Would you buy Anthropic stock on day one or wait? Tell me in the comments.