How is Islamabad handling crisis in Pakistan-administered Kashmir? | Inside Story

0:01 Renewed turmoil in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, fatal confrontations between security forces and protesters have marred local elections. At the heart of the violence is representation in the regional assembly. So, how is Islamabad handling the crisis? This is Inside Story. >> >> Hello there. I'm James Bays. It was an election aimed at strengthening democracy in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, but the situation rapidly deteriorated as the vote got underway, and dozens of people have been killed in confrontations between protesters and security forces. The violence followed weeks of protests by a now banned group that's calling for electoral reforms.

0:56 The government in Islamabad has conditioned any changes on a constitutional amendment. The chaos that accompanied the first phase of the vote is one of the biggest political challenges facing Pakistan since the beginning of the Kashmir conflict almost eight decades ago. In a moment, we'll discuss with our guests how the ongoing turmoil could shape the future of this disputed region, but first this report from Firdous Khan. >> Facing police gunfire, protesters in Pakistan-administered Kashmir flee. A prominent rights group, the Joint Awami Action Committee, says dozens have been killed since early June. The banned organization, founded to lobby for economic reforms, has led calls for political change.

1:41 Demonstrators want the 12 seats in the region's legislative assembly reserved for Kashmiri refugees living in Pakistan to be transferred to voters in the region. They say outsiders have too much say in local matters. >> >> The government in Islamabad says that can only be changed by a constitutional amendment. With local elections underway since Monday, protests have intensified. Police fired live ammunition and tear gas to break up a march from the city of Rawalakot to the regional capital, Muzaffarabad.

2:17 >> They have no shame. Blood has been spilled all over these streets. They are firing at our brothers. What kind of tyranny is this? >> Regional police say members of the Awami Action Committee shot and injured two officers. The Pakistani government accuses the group of trying to sabotage the democratic process. The latest confrontations highlight growing frustration with how much say the region has in its own affairs. Fredi Index Al Jazeera for Inside Story.

2:49 >> >> Well, we have the right panel to discuss all of this today on Inside Story. Joining us from Islamabad is Imtiaz Gul, the executive director at the Center for Research and Security Studies, a think tank based in the Pakistani capital. Victoria Jones is in London. She's a senior research fellow at the Asia Pacific Foundation. And in Washington DC, we have Kamaal Cheema, the executive director of the Sanaba Institute. He specializes in Pakistan and South Asia. Thank you all three of you for joining us here on Inside Story. As I say, we have a global audience for this program. This is a detailed and complex subject. So, Victoria, your challenge at the start of this discussion is just to explain exactly what we are focusing on, the area of concern, and it's Azad Jammu Kashmir.

3:40 Explain to us what that is. >> Well, thanks so much for having me. And what I would say it's key to understand is the region we're talking about here is Kashmir more broadly, which is in South Asia, and it's actually a disputed territory over which three different countries state claims. And this territory has been disputed for decades. So, you have India-administered Kashmir, which is controlled by India, Pakistan-administered Kashmir, controlled by Pakistan, and then there's also a third part of Kashmir claimed by China. And what we're focusing on is the Pakistan-administered part of Kashmir.

4:22 >> But, Victoria, we're not even focusing on all the Pakistan-administered part, are we? It's divided into two bits. >> Right, exactly. So, you have Gilgit-Baltistan, which is also technically part of Kashmir in Pakistan. And then you have what is known as Azad Jammu and Kashmir. And then the Line of Control, or LOC, is the demarcation that separates the Pakistan part of Kashmir from the Indian-administered part of Kashmir. And it's also quite ironic that the term itself, Azad Kashmir, which is the part that Pakistan administers, it actually translates to free Kashmir. And I think as we've been seeing as of late, especially, that is not exactly an a very apt name.

5:11 >> You mentioned the Line of Control. Of course, that is the thing that is not an agreed border. M.T. Azad Jammu Kashmir, just explain to us how it is run. Because I think it's been run in the same way under the interim constitutional constitution act of Pakistan since 1974. It has a parliamentary system. Just explain how it works for us first. >> Well, Azad Kashmir does have a parliament. It does have a government, but it is largely subject to the sweet will of the rulers in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. So, it's usually whenever whichever party is ruling in Islamabad, it as an extension, the Islamabad Azad Kashmir also becomes part of that and the party basically becomes the government there.

6:04 So, there is no real constitutional status for this region and that's why there have been demands not only in Azad Kashmir, but also in Gilgit-Baltistan that these areas be given provisional provincial status, be made part of the constitution and that's and and that's how they can be represented in the national parliament as well. So, as a whole, while it it is stated as a as an autonomous autonomous region, however, this autonomy is extremely limited and dependent on the goodwill of the sweet will of the central government, that is Islamabad.

6:47 >> As you say, Mr. Yaseen, not a state and not a province and that I think is because of Pakistan's public stated position on the whole of Kashmir that that it's held for almost 80 years. >> It's true. This is why Pakistan has been reluctant in basically granting it a status because it believes it will dilute its position at the United Nations Security Council. But, I think once India mainstreamed Kashmir back in August 2019, made its part of Kashmir as part of the union, there thereafter, I think there have been demands that that position that Pakistan has held for so long has been basically become redundant and that Pakistan basically really needs to do something to in order to in integrate the Kashmir regardless of the contention because for all the practical reasons, this part of Kashmir belongs to Pakistan as much as the other part of Kashmir belongs to India and nobody probably can fathom the idea of resting one part of Kashmir from the other other party from the other country by force.

8:03 >> Okay, Kama, we've managed to zoom in and work out exactly what we're talking about and these elections the elections are there are 53 seats in the assembly but only 45 of those elected but explain to us what the controversy is. It's about 12 seats where people vote but there are people who don't live in Kashmir. That's right, isn't it? >> Well, yes, these 45 seats as you are men- mentioning I think of the 12 seats these are refugees that came from Kashmir and they have more than 400,000 votes and they're and they make across in different districts and different areas and they have been contributing and they have been giving their opinion because they're part of the Kashmir so I think that is the major cause of contention at this moment where the where the Jack where these these protesters demand that these seats to be abolished but Pakistan believes that this can only be done through the parliament through a legal process through constitutional process and no one has the right to force the state to take decisions and these people they cannot be disenfranchised these came from from Indian occupied Kashmir. They're part and parcel of Kashmir and if these 12 seats are ended, this will only be through the constitutional process but at the same time that will damage the Kashmir cause. I think that's what Pakistan has been saying so far.

9:36 >> And Kama, you mentioned there the Jack and that's central to what we're going to be discussing going forward. Let me just explain that's the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee. Awami translates as of the common people. I think that that's fair. They are now being designated a terrorist group. But go back to the beginning. Who What was originally the Jack? How did it get formed and why did they form?

10:06 >> Well, I think they had a few demands that was on the top of that was to have a subsidized floor. they wanted to have that the the electricity should be at the cost of the price. and they wanted to get incentives from the benefits from the hydropower projects. Those were the earlier demands and these were very genuine economic demands. but since the government of Pakistan and that that time the government of Kashmir gave those demands and gave all that what they wanted, they started increasing the demands from October 25 and they started saying that they should abolish these 12 seats. So, I think they were out of the parliament. They were out of the political apparatus.

10:45 they were pressure group. They are pressure group and they want that their demands to be achieved outside the parliament and the parliament which is in the system, they should listen them because they have people who are on ground and they believe that they may not join the politics or they may not listen come into the parliament at this moment, but before coming to the parliament, their demands must be met. And I think Pakistan believes that if we have to have transparency, we have to have accountability, if we have to have a meritocracy in the system, if the will of the people can only be there if if such decisions are taken through the parliamentary process, such decisions are taken through the constitutional process and the government of the day cannot be made hostage that yes, you have 25,000 people or 20,000 people on the streets and you can force them. So, their initial demands were met, but they started increasing those demands to 38 and I think those are, you know, the government can work on those, but I think they believe that they should be they should be listened before going into the parliament or before going into the elections. So, they want to get everything out of the constitutional process by forcing the government.

12:01 >> MTS, do you have any idea or can you give us any idea of how much following this group has? How many people back their them on this electoral issue? And as Kamar said, I mean that the previous grievances they raised, I think the one on on electricity is particularly important, although it's been largely met, but Pakistan but Kashmir was being paid a fraction of what the other Pakistan provinces got for for the for the electricity and Kashmir has hydroelectric power dams that are that are turning on the lights in other parts of the country.

12:40 >> Well, I think that is just one part of the issue. The larger issue I think is those 12 seats. There are legitimate demands, whether it's a wheat flour or legitimate share in the electricity being produced in Kashmir. But in return, Kashmiris have been getting billions of rupees every year. It's not just about the electricity or wheat flour. They do get enough funds. What they what is being missed is that right now Pakistan is dealing with a different generation of protesters, of people who want their rights, who want to be heard. And this joint Awami Action Committee base essentially comprises young people.

13:25 I I say partially Gen Z and they also largely traders, transporters are supporting them and they draw support from all over Kashmir and the biggest contention that triggered the the current crisis starting starting in September last year is those 12 seats which the younger generation now says is an instrument of manipulation in the parliament of Kashmir as well as the government because this we are talking about hardly six or five six 700,000 people dubbed as refugees but living in mostly in different parts of Pakistan and these guys eventually go on to become ministers, advisors whereby all those people who fight contest elections invest time invest their money in most parts of Kashmir they are relegated just to the members of parliaments to secondary positions and whenever there is a need to make or break a government these 12 refugee seats seemed seemed to be instrumental for making or breaking that government and that's why even this demand had resonated even last year in September and the government apparently had largely agreed on a phased evolution of these refugee seats but there was no written understanding even a few days ago we heard that this is what the Kashmiri people are saying that there was a near agreement also on this that there will be a phased abolition of 12 refugee seats but then the government didn't want to give written agreements nothing in writing as far as to what agreement had been reached that's why the situation has simply flared up and seems to be getting out of control constitutional let me if you give me just 1 minute, that the argument on the technicalities of the abolition of 12 seats, I think is peripheral. It's not that important because when the government in Islamabad wants it can get done anything it it it it wants. And that's why I think the best way would have been to find a durable, credible arrangement for as to how the government will deal with the 12 refugee seats so that they can't be used for manipulation manipulation of the governance and the government and the parliament in Kashmir.

15:57 >> Okay, Victoria, so protests grow, things as MT has just said get out of control. What is your view of the government response? It's moved the election from one election to a phased election over three phases and we're midway through those phases right now, but perhaps more importantly there's been this crackdown and they've decided that this protest group is now going to be designated as a terrorist group. Your reaction, was that overkill?

16:29 >> Well, I think it's honestly more of the same when it comes to how the Pakistani security establishment operates. I mean, this is obviously a significant flare-up, but these frustrations and grievances have existed in this region for a very long time. And if you look at other parts of Pakistan and how the state has treated other communities such as the Baloch community in Balochistan or the Pashtun community in the tribal areas, I mean, the state cracks down and targets and goes after dissidents and civilian protesters all the time and not only within its own borders, but it even targets dissidents outside its borders abroad. There have been cases of Baloch activists being found dead in suspicious circumstances in places like Canada and Sweden. And human rights groups have been trying to raise awareness about these issues for years and >> Victoria, in terms of the Kashmir context though, Pakistan has been very critical in the past about what India's done in Indian controlled Kashmir, but you're seeing some of the same same things. You're seeing protests put down, people arrested, the internet being shut down.

17:45 Pakistan seems to be using India's playbook. >> Right. And again, I would just say it's also part of Pakistan's playbook, which it has used against other communities across the country. And yes, exactly. It's very much shattering the narrative that Pakistan has long promoted that Kashmiris' interests are best served under Pakistan rather than India. And it often tends to contrast the treatment that these people receive on its side of the line of control. But exactly as you mentioned, I mean, that narrative has just very much been shattered in recent months.

18:28 >> Kamal, we're talking about an issue in Pakistan Pakistan controlled Kashmir, but it's clearly a Pakistan wide context as well. And it's interesting that you look at the political parties in Pakistan. Imran Khan, the former prime minister, ousted in 2022, him and many of his other party leaders now in jail. His party's boycotting the election. They won the last one of these elections. And also the Pakistan People's Party, in addition to the ruling party, they are the other big party in Islamabad.

19:06 They're not happy about things either. Bilal Bhutto Zardari has said he now wants there to be a truth and reconciliation commission because he says both sides are at fault here. How much of this is a big issue for the whole of Pakistan right now? >> Well, I think on this question normally whoever has a government in the center they they get a government in Kashmir and this has happened you know when the PTI Imran Khan's party was in center they got the government in Kashmir and now the PMLN with the Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif's party is in the government and they may win the election in the in the Kashmir it seems so and this have this happened also with the Bilawal Bhutto's party. But I think the most important thing is that the people of the Kashmir they got a chance to vote. They they have not been disenfranchised.

19:58 They are part of the process and I think all the political parties they have been fighting and they have been talking about the Kashmir cause globally. We together either it is the Imran Khan's party the Bilawal Bhutto or the PMLN they have been speaking for the cause of the Kashmir and I think right now what's going on there I think the people are really upset that how can there be a change on the road? The change can only come through the parliament through the constitutional and democratic process.

20:26 People have not been disenfranchised. It's not Indian occupied Kashmir where the Supreme Court had to force the ruling party to go to hold the elections. This is Pakistan you know the election commission is holding election every five years or and we saw there were there were I think four prime ministers in the previous assembly in in Kashmir and that was because there was a you know change within the house. So I think people have not been disenfranchised and if they really want to change the elite democracy they need to be part of the participatory democracy. They want to come into the system they need to use ballot rather than bullet and I think that's where government of Pakistan is looking towards them and that's where I think the entire Pakistan's political parties are there in Kashmir. They're asking urging them to vote. but yes, this is a new movement. People have come. Some of their demands were met, so they believe that by pressurizing the government bringing people on on road, you know, being a pressure group, they can force for other demands. But I think the states do not run on such kind of ways. The state can only run through the legal ways. And for that matter, I believe all the political parties I either the Bilawal Bhutto and the PMLN, they want that. And looking at what the PTI, you know, Imran Khan's party, they normally boycott these elections. They're facing a leadership crisis. Since Imran Khan is in jail, there is no second-tier, third-tier leadership. and they have boycotted earlier elections, and this is not the first time they boycotted an election in Kashmir.

22:01 >> Okay, Imtiaz. I'm glad we're covering this subject because actually very little international attention on this, given this is such an important region and India and Pakistan have gone to war three times on Kashmir. So, it's something the world should be caring about. let me ask you about whether that's the the Pakistan media are focusing on this because I was speaking to someone in Pakistan earlier on who said, "Well, the cockroach protest in India, the educational protests there are getting a lot of attention, but actually even in the Pakistan media, this is not getting it that much attention."

22:38 >> Well, I think given Pakistan's democratic backpedaling that we've experienced the last few years, there is increasing pressure on on the media, increased restrictions, and the always the threat of being framed in criminal charges whenever people report, particularly from inside contentious areas such as Kashmir. So, the I'm sure had they been normal circumstances, we would have heard a lot more on what has happened. So, on the mainstream media, basically, we haven't heard much, and that's why the analogy to India is also not fair because the media freedoms still exist there very much, and there's no curb on them. So, media is basically free to report what they want. In Pakistan, this has become pretty sensitive, and that's why I think we have to live with whatever what we are discussing right now. However, what has happened that the the two allied parties, People's Party and the ruling Muslim League, they have fallen apart on on the issue of Kashmir, the manipulation of elections, and that's why they're fighting it out. They've been They've been trading allegations, insinuations between themselves.

24:01 and this has brought some >> >> some focus to what is happening. And in fact, Bilawal Zardari, the chairman of the Pakistan People's Party, now has demanded reconsi- a truth-finding commission to find out the nature of violence that has taken place in Kashmir in the last few days. So, it's not about the right disenfranchisation of Kashmiris, but it's about under what conditions is that right of franchise is being exercised, and whether that right exercise right is also respected or not.

24:40 So, I think this is where the new conflict is I think brewing, and it is probably will fan out as we move forward >> Okay. >> for the next phases of the next >> Empty as if I can bring bring in Victoria at the end of our program now. the problems between India and Pakistan, clearly one of the main dividing lines in global politics and have been for almost 80 years. And clearly at the center of the problems between two countries is Kashmir. Given what's going on on the Pakistan side, does it give you any hope or are we further than ever for any progress, any diplomatic progress?

25:23 >> I mean, I would say there is hope at least in the fact that people are raising their voices and coming out demonstrating and vocalizing their discontent. But of course, the response to that is deeply concerning. As mentioned, the the fact that the authorities in Pakistan are opening fire on peaceful protesters. This is deeply alarming and it only time will tell, you know, if if that crackdown is going to eventually extinguish the movement at least for the time being. But I think regardless, the sentiment is there and it has been there for years and it's just reached a boiling point.

26:07 >> Kamal, do you think, this is a moment that will take peace even further away between India and Pakistan, briefly? >> Well, I think, on our side, we have been saying for quite a long time, we are open for dialogue, but it's the Indian side which doesn't want to talk for so many reasons, because of their own internal reasons, because they have linked their foreign policy and national security with their electoral politics. But I think this, on what's happening on the Pakistani Azad Kashmir, I think that this is an internal issue. the the people will resolve it.

26:44 and at the end of the day, the change can only come through the, you know, electoral process. and people need to go back to the ballot, if they really want to change. And I think that has been a difference in Indian Kashmir and the Pakistani Kashmir that the Pakistani the people in the Azad Kashmir in our Kashmir they have been enfranchised always. There the Pakistan has raised the Kashmir issue diplomatically, politically and morally across the world everywhere everywhere in the world.

27:14 >> Come on, we have to leave it there. Kama Cheema, Imtiaz Gul and Victoria Jones. Remember if you came in late you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website aljazeera.com. We'd love to hear what you think so go to our Facebook page facebook.com/ajinsidestory or on X we are @ajinsidestory. For now that's it from me James Bays and the team here but don't go anywhere because Al Jazeera's coverage continues in just a moment.