Transcript
0:00 so at the beginning of October yeah I think what we basically said kind of generally speaking is markets up right markets that went from nibbling to being constructively positive and basically being positioned long here's this really interesting setup we have a bunch of very positive news that I think we all have to process first positive news was that inflation ticked down now here's what I'll tell you there's a caveat here I talked to a bunch of
0:26 pretty smart Sharps on Wall Street and oh two things number one is they all gave credit to David sacks and they said Saks was totally right double dip recession is coming but then they said tell sacks that we think that these are the sharps we think that there's a double hump in inflation coming which means it's coming down to come back up and there's a bunch of reporting vagaries that may cause that so keep that in the back of your mind but
0:52 positive news number one is inflation ticking down number two Jason we talked about this a federal judge basically stayed Biden's attempt at giving student loan relief now that would have been a 500 billion dollar transfer payment from the government into the hands of individuals it is deflationary to not put give that money to people it's effectively taking stimulus away from folks number three
1:22 it looks like we're headed towards a split government which means that we are not probably going to see any more stimulus over the next two years number four Ukraine wins and Curzon I hope I'm pronouncing that right number five the United States announced yesterday through the Wall Street Journal that they had essentially said no to Ukraine's request for advanced drones and they said to Ukraine essentially you need to go and negotiate an end game here and number six China has started to
1:55 relax as covet policies and G is pivoting to economy first so if you took all the way take seven don't forget seven Facebook which would not take the medicine they refused Brad gerson's letter cut eleven thousand people 48 hours ago one of the Facebook matters that much to be honest well but it matters that big Tech is and they're taking it it doesn't matter to the economy to be complete I I think it does if people are going to
2:20 start cutting jobs but okay keep going my point is these seven things are macro level things that affect everybody yep and I think if you take them together what it says is that wow there's there's the potential for a lot of great positive developments over the next six or nine months and I don't think that that was adequately priced in the market but here's the problem and this is what's why we've been rallying the problem is that most of this
2:42 rallying has been because of a bunch of short covering by folks that who were pretty pessimistic and negative after the last few inflation prints so this is not really net new buying that we saw over the last couple days so you take it all together I have we talked about this Jason when the vix gets into the low 20s or the High Teens that's probably the short term top and then it turns around and unfortunately we're near
3:14 the low 20s High Teens so that's kind of my thought on things right now