While Wall Street Hesitates, This Just Broke Out

0:00 S&P reclaimed the majority of its losses from last week and we can see the same thing happening on the NASDAQ. It's actually getting stronger. We can see these DTLs and I think it's important to talk about why. We can see the 30-year Treasury has come down considerably. And if we actually look at from the mark of when we peaked on the US Treasury to what's going on with the S&P, we can see a high correlation. But is that the only thing that's actually driving the increase in breath in the market? If we take a look at our breath chart here, we can see some of these numbers are going up very fast. I do think we have to talk about this. We also have to talk about what's driving the 13% move in the semiconductor index in a week. There's a lot behind this. Let's get into it.

0:40 Subscribe and hit all notifications. These videos are all linked together starting with Saturday's deep dive. 27.5% of you that watch these videos do not subscribe and it helps me greatly with the algorithm specifically since I don't run ads in the middle of them. Let's do it. So, semiconductors had a huge move and we all saw that from Tuesday up and that actually outperformed what was going on with the NDX. It's pretty clear. It's pretty straightforward and I'm just looking at a line chart for a sec. You can actually see the decrease. You can see the double top and going from there. There's not really much to say about it. If we are to do the simplest of things and just take a fib and drop it from that peak here to that low here. So I'm taking the swing low, swing high, and all I'm doing is just dropping these fibs. And we're going to do this a couple different spots today. We can see that why this would be an area from there that we would start moving. And then of course what we'll do is just over time we're going to get different fib levels between here and those areas. And I thought this was super interesting as well. And what we'll do now is just drop this to open, high, low, close before we go any further from that low all the way up to this high. And I don't have them all lit up, but you know, I can do that real quick. As always, these videos will be unedited. I just find them way easier to manage and way more authentic that way. But if we take a look at the low, hold on one second. That's not drawn the way I want it drawn. What I want to do is I want to go to that peak and I want to go to that low. There it is. So taking this swing high here and that swing low and I'm not using that breakout. And so we get here and it's 571 which would be that target and then you'd come up here just on this smaller move. And I think it's important to have those targets. The question is what's going to get us there? There are three major events that happened this week that are not Nvidia. I know it's kind of crazy, but there are three major events that happened this week that are not Nvidia that have the semiconductors doing what they're doing and also that are moving the hardware names. And we really need to spend some time on it.

2:37 Before I get into that, I want to go through the basics on the macro side. And for those that know, I always look at the stool. And we have the macro, we have the fundamental side of the stool. And of course, we're going to have to redraw this because it's awful. And we have the technical side of the stool as well. So, let's put that bad boy right there. Drop you down like it's hot. Let it cook a little bit as the kids say.

3:01 And let's go and get it. Drawing our line across. And that's our stool. We have macro issues. And macro is driving everything as always. But the tail doesn't wag the dog. And I'm reminded of this saying a lot. So just remember macro, fundamental, and technical because the fundamentals are getting stronger. The technicals are actually starting to get stronger. And the macro picture is becoming less and less murky. If the macro picture wasn't becoming less murky, you wouldn't be seeing this.

3:29 And I think that this is very important for people to get. So we go look at the US30 here and we take a look at this. What do we have up here? And why is this so important? Because when we broke out here a week ago on the US30, you were at a spot where you were looking at 520. If you want to see why the market's coming in, and we'll spend a little more time on this later, but you were over 520.

3:49 Since then, they've been buying bonds despite the horrific CPI and the PPI. Well, why are they doing that? Well, from my standpoint, I think they believe that crude's coming down. I'm going to go out on a limb here and say I don't see that at all. I don't see how crude's not going higher because of how long this is going to take and the physicality of it, but it's definitely an issue and it's certainly something that's on my mind and it is something that that's out there. People are always talking about the Japan carry trade and is that the issue? Is it not the issue?

4:18 If the Treasury drops and crude can stay in a range, then it's not going to you're not going to get those big swings. It's an issue, but it's not the issue for me. I want to see if they're putting money to work. So, if we go look at NDFI for a second, which is the NASDAQ 100 stocks above the 50-day moving average, you're getting a real clear picture here, right? You're getting a very clear picture. We'll turn it into a line chart for a sec. And we can just see the double top, the undercut, but we never broke 50. It never broke. And 50 is our demarcation line on this. If you ever want to look at any great correction, if you ever want to look at any great correction, we're going to need more coffee. You have to understand that it always happens when you break that 50, right?

4:56 It just does. So if you came across here and again just leave it there and let it cook then you would see that oh look what happened here look at the breakout and then you would just remember these times this is when we had all that winning and liberation and then it got paused and then we pushed through it. You can see that for yourself right? All right great. What's important about this from my standpoint and understanding this is that it's a great demarcation line and we didn't break and we're starting to lift. And for me I like looking at the S&P because it's broader and it gives me a better sense of it.

5:26 So, when we look at the S&P here and try to get a sense of what's truly going on there, it becomes very clear, doesn't it? So, and this is what I mean by that. Here's the S&P, the 200, the 50, the 20, the five. So, 200 to 5, 50, 25, 5, 250, 25. All right. And that is percentage above the moving average. I know I say it every time, but we do get new viewers. So, welcome. Let's get to it.

5:51 So, the most important one obviously is the 200. And we're not going to spend an inordinate amount of time on it because you are above the 50. And if we look at this, it's pretty darn clean what happened. Undercut, test that level. And I don't even think you truly undercut it that much. I think you got there by like one stock and then that was it. You just ripped higher. So that is defensive when you see that they are defending that level. and you might not get that, but if you go back and take a look at those areas, you really can't miss the long-term ramifications of holding that area. It doesn't mean that you're going higher, but it certainly means that you have a stable market, much more stable here than you are here. It's just a fact. Now, people will look at this and say, "But you were higher here." But look at the way that you were declining all in here. So, as this is declining and you think about that as a foundation, the foundation's getting worse. It's not getting better, right?

6:47 That just makes sense. The more that you're going up, the more names they're buying that are breaking above their 200 day moving average. The breath is getting better. And you always see the breath reflective on the five through the 200 in that order first, right? So then when we see something like the 50, this is exactly what you're looking for. You have your undercut rallies retest that area and now it's breaking out. So people would look at this and say to themselves, they'd say, "Self, does this really matter?" And the answer is, yeah, it really does matter. You're at an area here where you're getting back and you're hitting higher highs. When you're in these areas and every single stock is above the 50, it's like, okay, like you're not telling me anything new. When you're increasing and you're going higher, that's when you're going to get your strongest moves. So, when they're increasing and they're going higher, that's when you're going to get your strongest moves, right? Right out of that rip. So, when you come back down, not as much. When you start to increase again, that's when you get your strongest moves. We're going through that right now. The 20 is super interesting because the 20 is going to be more of your short-term yet intermediate where you're flipping. And you can just see that when we came down to that 34% level. Usually, you come down a little bit more. You'll come down to something else, right? But you didn't get there. You came down to 34% and now you're back over 50. So, it's really hard to look at this market right now with here like on the five. If I was up in the 90s, like if I'm up in here, right, in that area, like the 80s or the 90s, and I think the market's going to crack on a short-term basis, and everything else under it was a little weaker, like here, you might go, "All right, well, I kind of see maybe we're going to come in a little bit." Or when we peak up in here on these spikes and we're under, you know, key levels like 50, then yeah, you're a little weaker.

8:34 When you're through those when you're through those 50s and you're going higher, you're okay. But if I'm spiking like in here, right, and I'm under, you're just setting up to roll back over. And you can see that over and over again. So what the easiest one to use is the 50. I'm trying to explain how to use these in like just back envelope, but if you're under 50 and you're spiking on the five, the chances of you rolling over are substantially greater. So you'll see it in these areas like here, let's shrink this one down because this will be cleaner for you guys to get. So if we're looking at this and we're like, "All right, well, I'm at 57." And then we spiked up. Yep, you spiked up and then what happened? Yep, you went sideways. Cool. Here we are. You broke 50, you're dropping, and the five spikes. All that's doing is prolonging the inevitable. That's actually a great spot to look at putting on shorts. Even if you look in here, when you're spiking through it, when you start to spike under it and the five spikes, you'll start to see that they are areas of interest. Just like here to an extent, but then you stayed over the 50, so it didn't matter. I hope that makes sense.

9:35 But this is something that I use a lot and it just I like demarcation lines with technicals that make my job easier as a trader and investor depending on your time frame and this one does exactly that. Now there are three key events that happened this week that are not Nvidia's earnings that are not SpaceX that I think that we need to address. So let's get to it. Now we've all seen this huge move in the socks and I think there's a couple things that are super important about this one. You have a classical breakout. I want to talk about three distinct things that happened that I think that the majority of people missed specifically this week.

10:10 I think that people are aware of some of them, but I don't think they're aware of all of them. And I don't think the depth in which they happened. And what I always like to point out is that we are fighting for inches. Meaning, you'll have information that's out there, but we're always trying to get ahead of everybody else because the more information you have that's accurate, the better that we can do. We've all seen this breakout from April 8th, and we watch the rally, the pullback, and then the rip. And a lot of people are looking at this and saying, "Oh, we're getting back to the highs." And now we have to see what happens. And you know, do we break out? Do we not break out?

10:39 Let's just talk about this technically for a second. If we look here, we can see the peak. We can see the peak here. And we could see the lower peak here. I get that this is way off and that you would expect this to possibly come back down because you could start having that slope. The problem with this level of thinking is that you're not giving it the opportunity to see if it's going to go higher and then if so, how much higher. Do you have a lull that could come in the market? 100%. You could always have a law come in the market getting through earnings. All of this can transpire and this is super important for me as well because frankly RSI is one of the things I use the most.

11:16 And if we look at these kinds of scenarios in the past, they do tend to mark a high before you go sideways. Pardon the voice. And then sometimes you wind up coming right back down. I try to get people to understand about technical analysis is that the tail does not wag the dog. And I'll explain what I mean by this. So George Rose has this book called Alchemy of Finance and I relate to it all the time and it's a very simple chart and I would suggest that you read the book. I don't really care about his politics but if there's a real interesting part of it. So if this is stock price and this is earnings, it's very difficult for the stock to just drop despite what the technicals are saying to us. So the tail does not wag the dog. Meaning, if earnings are going to keep increasing, people going out there and saying, "Well, it's too high.

11:59 It's too high." It's like watching a baseball get hit out of the park and saying, "It can't be a home run. It's too high." Eventually, that ball's going to come down. Eventually, the earnings growth is going to slow down. And that's really when you're going to run into a problem. And this is from a longer term thesis more than us whacking around a 5minute day trading chart, right? That is a completely separate issue. And the further that you go out, the more fundamentals matter. So, in other words, if you're looking at it from a charting standpoint this way, and this is super important concept to get, and I should probably just do a video on the concept, but if you're looking out like a day or two, whether this whether the semiconductor index makes $40 on average or $4 on average is completely irrelevant. You're just dealing more technical. And the further you go out, the more fundamentals matter. That's why you'll hear these guys when they get on television on CBC or Bloomberg like Paul Tudtor Jones will say, "Oh, you know, GDP is 252." He just had this saying out there. GDP is 252% of, you know, the market capitalization of the stock market. This is crazy. This is from the 20s. Blah blah. We're definitely going to come in, you know, hard eventually. And then everybody says, "Oh, so you're shorting stocks."

13:06 He's like, "No, I'm buying AI names." Because he's understands the difference in the time frames. This is a huge concept. We should do we're going to do a video on it. Comment below if you want to do a video on it, but I really think we should. So, why do you care about this right now when we're looking at a daily chart and Saturday's videos are deep dives to prepare us for the week or month ahead? And that's really why I suggest that people use these Saturday deep dives for this. And I want to get in the habit actually of starting to rip into the timestamps on this so we can refer back to it on the weeks, you know, as the weeks go on. Anyway, when we see the earnings come out and they're driving, we have to understand that this can correct. The tail does not wag the dog. So, we had three major events in my opinion this week that were not Nvidia, which is kind of crazy to say because, you know, all month I'm getting myself giddy for DVD's earnings. And I don't know why because Nvidia just does the same damn thing for the past now eight quarters. It comes out with earnings. If you look at the past eight quarters, bids up and then they just drop it down.

14:04 They just drop it like it's hot like the kids say. And the kids still do say that by the way. I know they say let it cook too, but they definitely still say drop it like it's hot. So, we I'm looking at this thing. I'm prepping for it. I'm writing down the gross margins. I've got all my numbers ready. We traded it live on the night that it came out. What was that? Wednesday night when it came out.

14:23 And I'll link that video at the end if you guys want to watch. You can watch the first 5 10 minutes and watch me actually trade it if you want to see how, you know, how we acted on that news live. It was it's a public video. But the thing about it is that's not even the big event this week. and they crushed it. 75% gross margins. Some people had 76%. Like could you imagine owning a business where you're doing 75% gross margins? It it's insane. And on these numbers and they're growing. The thing that you should take away from Nvidia and we will touch base on this.

14:52 If I could tell you to take the one thing about this, go listen to the conference call if you're like trying to really get an edge and listen to the amount of times they said CPU. It was over and over again. So you have a GPU company that's saying we're a CPU company. You know, look at me. I'm pretty too. And I think that that's really fascinating. So there's three things here that we really need to dive into to me this week that change the landscape. And I don't know that people are fully aware of the ramifications of those. Let's get to it. I'm going to start doing more research pieces. The link for Substack is in the description if you want to follow along. I want to start doing more research. I really used to do a lot of it and I find it fascinating. Just follow me on there.

15:34 It's free. I'm not going to charge for it, but I enjoy the writing of it. I'm a little bit of a nerd like that and I think the longer format will keep people more in tuned instead of getting chopped up and the minutiae. I still like obviously going to day trade the heck out of the market, but I do like the research pieces. AMD, Lisa, Sue, CPU demand will keep rising for years. This is from Bloomberg. This was a an event in Taipei which I don't think a lot of people even knew was going to happen and I want to be clear about it. I really wasn't aware of this. So I was very focused on what Nvidia was going to do.

16:05 Now market central processing unit is growing faster than anyone predicted a year ago. This is really very important to get because we saw Nvidia during that conference call take a completely different stance and instead of saying we're PU GPU they're saying we're going to segment our business out. We're also a CPU company and we're going to talk about some of the names that they're partnering with. Expects to keep expanding for years driven by searching AI inferencing demand. So then we'd also have to think about companies that deal with the inferencing demand and how they're going to benefit. We're going to get to this tie all together. AMD sees CPU market going more than 35% annually over the next 5 years. I think that this is really important because if you go back to their conference call, she said 30 annually over the next 5 years. So, not only is it growing faster than anybody thinks it's growing, it's also when you, and this is really important, it's also growing faster than she thought it was growing. Even if hyperscalers keep their levels the same, which they're probably not, but let's just say they keep their spending the same, where those chips go is going to matter more than anything. And that's what's really important about this. So, I think if you listen to what Nvidia is saying and then you listen to what she's saying and then you watch the demand from earnings on companies that you guys weren't even watching and that's why some of these other names moved, but we're going to get to that in a minute.

17:22 This is absolutely huge. And she's talking about a 5-year basis. She's not talking about for the next 3/4. So, they have visibility out five years. So, notes that just 6 to 12 months ago, no one was discussing CPU shortage, demand rising. CPUs are now central to what matters. So, where's the next bottleneck? And everyone loves this new saying, bottleneck, and feels really cool when they say it. But this is going to be a problem. And that's also why I think that you've seen the government do what they did this week with the investing in these companies. If we have time, we'll cover that. I'm not sure we're going to, but if we do, as I'm putting these together, remember, I do these raw and unedited. I rather do them that way. I think it gives you more color and context. Sue says, "Travel to Taiwan to prepare AMD for significant a CPU ramp up. Strong backlog supply chain partners." So there we are. We're going there because why are we going there?

18:15 Because we need to make sure that we can get what we need. AMD is not counting sales of its most advanced chips to China. US exports rules and Chinese regulations. Does this continue? Does it not? I don't have an answer to that. But when we take out China and just look at it from a chart standpoint, what we're going to do is all these articles, we're going to tie them to charts so that we can see what's really happening. And so here we have earnings and we're seeing a lot of this behavior. So I'm going to show you a pattern that you're going to want to start looking for. And this pattern is going to help you whether you want it to or not. These are your earnings. This is your breakout and then you're getting your retest. And you're seeing this pattern over and over again.

18:53 And it doesn't matter the name. So here's Cisco. Here's the undercut. and then it rips everyone's face off and then they're wondering why they're not in it and they got stopped out. Start understanding that institutions have price points. You want to watch where those price points are. People always say to me, why do they I was going to say, why do they say big T? Why do you always win? But people always say to me, why do you use the close for your stop?

19:15 So, whenever I have a swing trade, I use the close. I don't just use when it touches because of the algorithms out there and the high frequency traders, they know that they will come down to just steal from us, for lack of a better term, right? They call it liquidity. I call it theft. But if we look at the market, all they did was come down to where anybody would place their stop and then rip your face off and then you're sitting there wondering. So I use the close for my swings as a stop. You should do what you're comfortable with.

19:40 You may have to size differently, but I find great value in that. And you know, I've watched this play out over time and time again. Here's another example of this. And yeah, I'm going on a tangent, but XOM, I want to close it. If it breaks the 55, look where we're sitting now. Technically, you could say it broke the 55, right? So, nothing's perfect, and it I'm better off showing you nothing's perfect. Let's not go down that rabbit hole yet. Let's stay with this rabbit hole. So, let's get rid of this. Let's go back to AMD on a bare chart and let's go take a look at what happened. So, this news comes out, the stock pops, everyone gets giddy, and then they sell it down. So, that's probably the end of it, right? This is where you have to start figuring out who you are as a trader as we go through this today, cuz this is going to get super in-depth. You have to decide if you're day trading this stuff or not. If you're day trading this, you're like, "Oh man, I had to get out in the first 5 minutes." Yeah, you did. And then we undercut and then we held that open over and over again. Yeah, you did have to get out in the first 5 minutes and you either made it or you didn't or you had to sell your zeroated calls out and blow them out, right? You didn't have a choice. But if you're looking at this on a weekly chart and you're truly studying this and I'll just show you the way that I would look at this. And so here we are and these are our levels, right? We can see the rally up and then we can kind of go from there. Let me just blow this up.

20:57 And so most people look at this and say to themselves, well that's a cup, that's a handle and then where's the mark from there? And I think it's a valid way of looking at it. So let's mark that off and let's take a look at that. And we'll just do a simple fib retracement on it from these levels. And we're going to just click the settings right here and go to 16 and go two. And we'll look at where we stopped. So off this level, we have to tell ourselves the truth. we have to say, well, that's the first fib level off that, you know, cup and handle level and this is where it gets us and that's the second. Now, for me, just so we're clear, this is what I call like the clouds, meaning that you're way up there. You know, to get to the first makes sense. To get to that second level, which is exactly where you're stopping, these are the clouds. So, when I look at something like AMD, I look at it and say to myself like, "Yeah, we're up there. Yeah, we can definitely come back down. There's no doubt about it."

21:46 And so then we have to realize that, yep, when we're trading in this, we're trading in an area where we could bounce around. So let's go back and say, well, okay, big T, how do you play that? So if you're in the community, you'll get that joke. If not, I'm sorry, but it's early and I'm drinking coffee, so it is what it is. So if we take a look, you can always see the time right here when I'm recording this stuff. So if you look at the range, you're between 4 475 and 391.

22:10 You have to assume that you're going to form another base in here at some point, right? You can't assume this is it. I got to get in. We're going to break out. You have to look at this and say to yourself at the end of the day, I think that this is going to continue. This is my range. How do I take advantage of that? And then you're starting to think if you're a long-term guy or if you're a swing guy and then how to deal with that. Right? That's how you need to be looking at the information that's being presented today. Not just, oh, he's saying XYZ is going to happen because I'm not telling you anything. There's a reason that my saying over and over again is the following. You should do what you're comfortable with because it's up to you to decide what you do with information education. It's not up for some quote unquote person or, you know, guru to tell you what to do cuz none of us really know what's going to happen. We just present information and then you go from there. If they hit a bottleneck and they can't sell, then the company's going to have a problem. She's trying to get ahead of it. And so, as things start to move, we have to figure out what we're going to do with that. If I was to look at this, I'd have to also say there's a gap here. So, let's say that we sell down because we get mean tweets. Well, then 355 would be an area of interest. Then I'd also have to look at the 12, the 22, and the 55, which is what I use. You should use what you're comfortable with. And I'd have to say, well, that 395 level probably holds because we have the 12 that's used to determine if we should be swinging it or not. The 22, are the bulls in charge or the bears in charge? And then here, we'd have to look at, you know, do we have institutional support? And that's how I look at it. So when we think of other names that are also going to be affected by this, we would realize that Intel clearly is going to be affected by this, right? Because of the CPU demand and obviously the stock is back above what your 12-day moving average. But you also have to realize that you have a range now between 100 to 133. So from a trading standpoint, this is what we have and this is the hand that we're dealt. I think that there is a lot going on out there. And again, what I tend to do with this when we get up in these nosebleleeds is the following. Most people will go out there and say, "Oh, they're too high." I like looking at longer term time frame charts and then looking at those fib levels and going from there. And the important thing about this is you can see where it got right to this area from this kind of peak and then where that nose bleed would be. What I want people to kind of get from this and I think that I'd have to do a much longer term video is people will equate it with this. They're going to equate it with, oh, it's.com because we're back to this is nothing like.com.

24:37 The amount of earnings growth that we're having here in semiconductors is nothing compared to this. We were growing and beating by about 10% here. And everybody was coming up with a website and it was just they were building pipe and nobody needed the pipe, but someday they were going to need the pipe. The telecom, if you were trading back in the day, you know what I'm talking about. The growth that you're experiencing here is significantly greater than anything else that I have seen in trading and it's significantly greater than anybody has seen in an earnings growth model that anybody has seen if they've been trading for two and a half decades. It doesn't mean that it's not starting to get factored in, but you have to realize that there's a huge difference here when you start looking at these earnings numbers. So whether that continues or doesn't continue, that's up for you to decide again, but it's definitely there.

25:25 So when we start looking at these names, just understand that I'm not suggesting that someone's going to run out and like, oh, they got to buy semis right away. I'm suggesting that if you don't think that this is going to continue, you're wrong. It's going to continue. It just becomes a function of price. That's the argument that I would make. I think Intel, of course, is setting itself up again to continue to push. I think that whole space is and it's all branching out. If you're in the community, you saw me put this out on Thursday night in the private newsletter that goes out just because I as soon as I saw it, I'm like, "Oh, the socks is going to break out the next day." Whenever you see this happen, you're going to see the socks break out.

26:00 Whenever ESOs, which is the equity weighted, breaks out ahead of the socks, it's always the next day because they just rotate back into those names. See, when you look at ASOX, which is just the AI component of the semiconductor space, right, you can see that, yeah, you're moving, but this is broad-based. We have a problem. We need to start buying the analog names. And then you start seeing things like Texas Instruments and what Hold on, that's wrong. Hold on. Texas Instruments, what they're doing, they're breaking out. Here's the earnings from them. Here's where you're at. You know, I'm surprised ADI is still down candidly, but I think you started debanging UB the other day and it looks like you're kind of getting there.

26:38 Again, if I look at these, you know, maybe want to get that above the 22. That might be an area to watch ADI, but you should do what you're comfortable with. So, what are we getting here with semiconductors? The growth on the CPU side is significantly greater than expected. There's a reason Blind Nvidia went down the way that it did. There's a reason why they're segmenting their business the way that they are. besides the fact that it drops now eight quarters in a row and there's a reason why ARM is ripping everybody's face off and I would suggest listening to that conference about it because when you listen to ARM and you see the upgrades in here on this move by Bernstein and I believe someone else did it ahead of Nvidia's quarter it was because Nvidia sees what's coming. Nvidia is speeding up a a CPU and their foray into this by a quarter. So they were looking at fourth quarter. They're speeding it up to third quarter. They're partnering with ARM and people are looking at the valuation of this and saying to themselves, "Oh, these valuations don't make sense." You have to look at where the puck's going. So, if Nvidia works with ARM and Nvidia and then they use that entire distribution model to get ARM's products into CPUs, do you think ARM's going to go higher? Do you think that their revenues are going to go up?

27:47 And so, that's why people are getting ahead of this. And that's only one component of what happened this week. Samsung reaches 11th hour deal with Union to avoid strike. I think that this is the one that most people were familiar with that was happening and whether or not this was going to really hammer it home. Like a lot of people thought that this wasn't going to they were so far apart was crazy. But let's get to this. So let's take a look at Samsung and just get a sense of this because the move's absolutely insane.

28:13 What people don't understand is that this move that we're seeing here, roughly 40% of all memory chips, just all all memory chips are coming out of Samsung. So, when you're talking about this all of a sudden being a problem, yeah, it's a real freaking problem because the pricing is going to go up dramatically. If you look at what happened here just on the weekly basis and we look over, you can see the break. You can see what happens when you're going to have that strike. Everyone's like, "All right, we're going to panic.

28:41 We're going to get out of it." And then all of a sudden, we're back to what an all-time high close. the amount of DRAM that you're going to need if CPU, and there's a reason why I'm doing it in this order, starting with the CPU chip and then going into DRAM, the amount of DRAM that you're going to need going forward as CPU gets bigger and bigger on a percentage basis is going to be pretty staggering. So, you have these names such as Samsung as well as SKHENX. And the real problem that they had between these two companies and again these are South Korean companies and a lot of people aren't really even aware of their existence. But the big thing here obviously is not the fact that these things are 10xing themselves. The big thing here is understanding that they make so many of these and they're already out of capacity and they're already trying to buy more machines. A matter of fact, Heinix offered ASML 15% over the price of the machine. Now understand ASML machines are something like $400 million and so they're offering more money for one of these machines even faster. The question becomes how do you trade these names? So this is why the South Korean stock market's been on absolute fire. Now people will look at this and say oh well this can't continue. And then the people that actually do the work on something like this will realize that it's trading at you know eight times earnings with the component of Samsung and Heinix. And then after it, if you put the entire market into it, I think it's around 12 times earnings right now. So when we're looking at something like this and we're watching the fluctuation, which obviously happened in here because, you know, are they going to have access to oil? Are they not? You know, we just you have a lot of uncertainty in here. Um, and you can see how that uncertainty from 120 led to people getting involved and almost having a double in a couple months. And you're still buying a country where that's trading at 12 times 13 times earnings, which is pretty freaking insane when you consider where the US is trading and what the growth is of the country. It's pretty staggering.

30:41 So this to me made a lot of sense for us. We've been in this for on and off for a very long period of time. I just don't see a situation where this slows. If you listen to what someone like Lisa Sue is saying about the CPU space, if you listen to what somebody else is saying at Nvidia, the guy in the leather jacket, what he's saying about, hey, we're now a CPU company as well as a GPU company. This is Ko Ru. And then you can see that this is a 3x ETF. And you can see how this has obviously been acting.

31:11 I like doing the open, high, low, close. You guys can always comment on this. A lot of you crazy kids watch these on mobiles. I I think that it just sucks some I think it's easier to see some of these patterns sometimes on open high low close low close it's the way I was taught many years ago with an abacus but if you take a look at this you can kind of see how this is playing out right versus if I just do the candlesticks you get it but I don't think it has the same kind of I just think it's cleaner sometimes looking at it this way you know interestingly enough candlesticks came out so people could chart the price of rice isn't that crazy all right the more you know so why do you care about this well you care about this because whether or not you're going be one of those crazy kids that is trading this stuff or not. You'd have to look at this and say to yourself, well, what about, you know, DRAM prices? I don't see an environment where DRAM prices aren't at least stabilized. Like, I just don't see it. And then you have the other hardware side of this, which is getting even crazier. So, you know, you have names out there on the hardware side that people aren't even looking at. We're going to tie this all together to the hardware side and how it's even trickling down into some of the old names. But DRM to me, I just don't see how we don't push. Now, does that mean that you have to run into these names?

32:22 That's up for everyone to decide. What I take from it is I love this stuff where, oh, we're, you know, we're at 80 and then we're back to 51. We put an alert out to buy this. I think it was like 685. This will help. There's was on 11:15, 685, 650 stuff. We did EWI the same day, too. And it was on this turn. And you can see how that turned into a piercing pattern. There was a couple reasons for that why that looked like a bottom to me. It doesn't matter right now. We can get into it in another video, I think. But so, you know, we were up 100 points in the swing. I don't, you know, I trimmed we trimmed into it because you never know how this is going to play out, especially when you're trying to take out highs because you could base in here for a while. But, you know, Friday's move to me was more worried about what we're going to see over the weekend with, you know, does this accentuate, does it not? You know, which way does it go? Does it escalate?

33:14 Which way are we leaning? I think there's a lot to that. But for me, this is super important to get and I think that that's something that you should pay attention to. So, if we go and overlay this again, you're still holding the 12. I don't know that I need to really do anything with it. I don't see how I'm not heading back to these levels. That's kind of where my head is. I'm trying to get super micro today on the Saturday's video because I think that it's needed for what's happening.

33:38 If we look at Friday and then everyone's going to be like, "Oh, well, we sold on Friday." Yeah. I mean, you hardly sold any I think it was more Memorial Day weekend. Let's get out of the way. Let's re let's revamp. But you have a very similar setup here to what happened on Tuesday where you did your undercut at 1,200 and then what you did was just lift and push. And we're seeing more and more of that kind of behavior. And there's nothing wrong with it if we sat here and based until next quarter. Like who cares if you're a long-term person?

34:05 But the thesis of DRAM and the pricing of DRAM, if you were able to look at it, it's through the roof. You can go through DRAM exchange or some of those sites and take a look. But I think you're up like 10x, something insane like that overall. It's just kind of crazy. But anyway, I I don't really think you need to sleep on these names. I don't see how demand does not increase and it takes forever for the buildout.

34:28 You know, that's one of the reasons why the other day we saw STX sell down so hard. And frankly, this scared me a little bit and I had a real long-term position in here and I kicked it. Obviously, I'm going to have to figure it out now because he talked about that and I think he's wrong. STX talked about it on a conference and said the JP Morgan conference this week and I don't even know if he was speaking at that one. I think he was at another one. It might have been that one, but he said that they're not going to be able to meet demand for product and build out fast enough to meet demand, meaning that they're going to miss it. And that's why the stock got smoked. The problem really with that statement when we look at it, we see how we held the 22 here is that the buildout, who are you going to believe, you know, STX or do you believe what AMD is saying? And I think this gets super interesting. I know I'm getting micro today, but I really like the micro and the minutia right now because I that's really where the money is. We can tie this all into the hardware side of the business, which I think is super interesting. Delox surged 15% today. And here's why it's happening. To me, this was kind of a no-brainer that they were going to be somewhat of the axe after what happened with SMCI. But I also think HP I think people were missing that one, too. But let's get to it. So, a lot of people are thinking that Dell moved because of its conference. Doug Technologies World ran from Las Vegas from the 19th to the 21st, 3 days immediately before Friday's surge. uh annual user conference primary platform announcing new products roadmaps reinforcing relationships conference red investment communities product blitz this is the articles that are coming out unveiled AI optimization I personally think you ran on Friday for two reasons number one I believe AMD's comments certainly helped number two Lenova which is a company that no one really follows came out with earnings Lenova is based in China I think they also have a headquarter ers in I think it's in North Carolina as well, but they do dual headquarters, but they only have a derivative here, but they really trade in China. Lenovo's fiscal quarter results are positive read through Dell, HPE, and NetApp. And go take we'll go take a look at those names in a minute.

36:33 Heading into next week's earnings, the print and management commentary for strong AI infrastructure while pointing towards a resilient spending across server and storage. 21 billion AI server pipeline with demand outpacing supply. supports Dell's AI momentum and points to a robust order flow. Management flags strong enterprise demand to signal that AI deployments are starting to drive broader infrastructure fresh cycles. And this is what I'm talking about when I'm saying that you have this pool of money. And I'll draw it out in a second, but you have this pool of money and then people are saying, "Well, the money is not going to grow out." Well, who cares?

37:06 All you're trying to do is figure out where the money is going to shift to because all of a sudden the cat's pajama was a GPU chip. And I'm not saying that it's not anymore, but it's definitely shifting into different parts. And we're saying that those parts have a lot to do with inference. The fresh cycles, incremental server, storage, health attachment should also benefit HPE, Dell, HPE, NetApp, net rate, a constructive setup, reports, sector demands, thesis, getting confirmation.

37:31 Okay, Dell was something I'll put this up here for a second. Dell was something we played with on the earnings over here and we did very well with it on a short-term basis, but you have these undercuts and then you have a lot going on candidly with what's happening overseas and so you have to make those decisions. You want to play with it or not. What I would say to you is, you know, if you really look at how these stocks are acting when they get down to those 22-day moving averages, which is what I use as a demarcation line for bulls and bears, a lot of these names are holding. if you I don't know have time to do it, but go overlay the 22-day moving average and all the optic names.

38:05 It's kind of crazy, but we saw this move on 56 and it became really clear that you're breaking out. And what I would say about stuff like this is you have to understand that if you're going to swing these kinds of names versus trade them, you're going to have volatility. So looking at daily P&L, this is I should do an education on this, but like people look at their daily P&L and that's great, fantastic. You should be doing that specifically when you're much more short-term oriented. When you're in these names and you're trying to swing them and build long-term positions, it becomes a function of process. Like, did it hit my stop? Yes or no? If it doesn't, then what do you care about the intraday volatility? That's where a lot of people lose it in my opinion. Right?

38:44 So, that's why I always suggest that when people are trading this stuff, the easiest way to deal with it is all right, I bought here. if it pops up, I'm going to take some profit off and I'm going to leave the stop where it is so that no matter what happens, they either, you know, have net small loss or net they make something small on it. And that allows them to to let the trade work, right? Like that's the part of this. People are watching Dell break out and going, "Oh, well, this is crazy."

39:09 Well, you have Lenova, and I think Lenova, I think we can find a symbol for it. 992 is the one for China. And you kind of see right here this huge breakout. No one's paying attention to this. Nobody's talking about it. I don't know anyone else. We were going through it. I was going through the community and seeing if everybody was more talking about this, right? Like, and I couldn't really get into it because there's so much other stuff we were doing on Friday. There's so much going on even with the SpaceX and all those names that are moving. But frankly, I think that is just, come on, you can do it. I think that's a lot of hyperbole. Although, I do think that it's really helping. Uh, obviously like the ATS and the Rocket Labs of the world, which I think Rocket Labs makes a lot more sense, but it doesn't really matter. they're both going to just probably keep pushing. So, if you look at something like Lenovo and what's going on there, that's why Dell did what it did. So, you have to stay in these things and allow them to work. If you don't, then you don't. But you look at earnings here versus where you're at and what the expectations are. No one's going to care even if they miss. If they miss, people are just going to buy the dip because they know that 5 years out or 3 years out, the institutions are they're just going to buy the name. And I think that that's what people are starting to get here a little bit like, oh, this is real. Like, this growth is much bigger than we think. And the other name that's super interesting, we've been in this one for a long time and it just has made zero sense. And I think it's the I think it's the sleepers, the more stgy names like we've seen with Cisco. But when you look at something like HPE, this was something we bought on a real simple technical breakout. We bought it midappril or April 20th. Like literally like it was just so simple.

40:39 You know, you could have drawn it out with crowns. So crayons, however you crazy kids say it. But if you look at that breakout right into here, there was nothing to it. It's like, "Oh, we've been basing for about a year. Here's your breakout." They bought a company called Juniper. It's growing at 150%. No one's even aware of it or talking about it. And now everyone's starting to look at the hardware side of the business and go, "Oh, okay." And here we go. And so you're starting to see these kinds of moves. There's nothing for us to do with this. Like there's literally nothing. So the hardware side of the business, people are starting to get NTA is the closest thing that you have to Lenovo.

41:12 And then you could just kind of see what happened here, which is just an absolute monster move again. So when we see these kinds of breakouts and they're starting to spread into other names, you want to understand why it's happening. You can sit there and say it shouldn't be doing this, it should not be doing this things here that happen. So you have two ways to look at this and I'll do it this way cuz I think that this will make more sense and worth our time. So you have this like this pie and we'll get rid of the magnet before that gets nuts. You have this pie, right? and this is what the hyperscalers are spending. And then everyone's like, "Oh, well, Nvidia can't keep doing this because the hyperscalers are going to, you know, blah blah blah and they're going to cut because they're going to have to because of private credit and this." Everyone's a private credit expert now, by the way. So then we go and look at this and say to ourselves, well, maybe they're just going to move this hyperscaler money from here and they're going to put some more chips in here. Like if you start thinking about how this thing is going to fit right into all this, you're going to get some overlap with it, too. Come on, you can work with me. Work with me.

42:09 You can do it. There it is. You're going to get some overlap in here too on how they're spending, right? And we just don't know what that overlap's going to look like. Let's just do that to make it clean. But at the end of the day, they're going to continue to grow. They're just going to move their chips into different things. That's the very first thing that you need to take from this. The other thing that you need to take from this is like there's a reason why I always refer back to, you know, the stool. And we're going to do we're going to get old school here for a minute because I think it's really important for people to get. Yeah, we have macro events, right? And if you're new here, welcome. But you have these macro events. That's a long stool. Let's shorten that up. I don't know who's sitting on that. But you and the macro events are right here. And yes, they do affect the fundamentals of companies, right? And they are going to shake the technicals. But the bottom line is if the macros are not affecting the earnings like you have what's going on with the war and the conflict and oil partners, will they partner? Who's the new partner? Like all that crazy stuff.

43:04 What what's UAE doing? We're all watching oil. We're all experts with the straight just like we were experts with Ukraine and we're watching this, right? But is it affecting earnings? Like are earnings actually changing because all this is going on? And the answer is no. So, oh well will someday. All right. Well, lots of things are going to happen someday. But is it really affecting it now? Or is anyone in tech changing their outlook based upon what's going on over here? No, they're not. A matter of fact, if anything else, they're ramping it up.

43:32 So, the fundamentals and the technicals are actually getting stronger, but everybody is still worried about this. And I'm not saying not to pay attention to it. Far from it. You have to because if it escalates, then it could affect the fundamentals of the technicals. But for now, it's getting really clear that people are way off on what their expectations are. That's it.