Transcript
0:00 In the last couple of weeks, I watched every single Adobe stock video I could find. I'm not just talking about this or this or that that you have probably already seen. I'm talking more than 100 videos. A DBE Adobe >> Adobe Adobe Adobe >> Adobe >> Adobe >> Adobe >> Adobe Adobe I watch people with 50 subscribers, 147 videos, thousands of minutes of content going back years in the past. My initial goal was to understand if today at $200 Adobe stock is finally a buy or it's a value trap. I also wanted to make a cool Adobe compilation showing the opinion of all these YouTubers just like the one I did for Golingo. But I realized something was missing is not enough to recap. Jeremy has sold couch is waiting.
0:59 Park is long. I mean it's cool. It's entertaining. But I wanted something more. I want to innovate and produce something truly special for my channel. So after listening to everybody repeating the same boring bored earning reports, >> CFO announced his resignation. >> CFO is also leaving CFO. >> I started wondering can we actually trust this YouTuber's opinion? What were they saying in January 2024? right here at the top. What about September 2022?
1:40 Did anyone time this bottom or were they panic selling? Because I mean if a creator is telling you suggesting to buy Adobe stock today because it's cheap but they were also saying to buy Adobe stock on top. How can we trust them? How can we trust their judgment? So, let's hold them accountable. Before we dive into Adobe and YouTubers, a few important clarifications. First, if you have watched my last portfolio video, you know that 10 days ago, I owned Adobe stock and I was losing money on it. So, I have my own beliefs and biases. Later in this video, I will tell you if I bought more Adobe or if I sold the position entirely after this research.
2:28 Second, this is just entertainment, especially after everything that we are about to see. I can claim that you should never trust YouTubers like myself with your portfolio. Third, we all make investment mistakes. In my life, I made more mistakes than all these other YouTubers combined. We are going to expose some massive up, but it's not a personal judgment on anyone. Let us begin by looking at the chart. Adobe price hit the bottom on September 2022, then ran up to the peak on February 2nd, 2024, and then started trending down in this direction. But at the beginning of this year, the downtrend, the negative momentum accelerated, losing even more money every single month. This is fascinating already because if you have seen my last video, Adobe was actually the fourth most recommended stock by finance creators at the beginning of 20126. Jeremy Everything Money, Brian Stole, Park, Patient Investor, Zip Trader, and the most bullish of them all, he could bet his mother house on this stock area. They are all suggesting Adobe. It's a fact that those seven creators recommended Adobe at the beginning of the year. Clearly, we still have six months to go. And honestly, I generally hope that the price will turn around, but 42% decline in six months. It's not looking good. Again, guys, this is not a judgment. These are long-term investors.
4:14 price and sentiment change quickly and my pick at the beginning of the year was PayPal which is not great either. But while 6 months is a short window, there is one huge creator that is rating Adobe as a buy since many more months. >> Is Adobe stock a buy, sell or a hold? I would say Adobe is a buy. I still think the company is a buy even at these valuations. I will reiterate my buy recommendation for Adobe stock. I would say yes, it is indeed a buy on this recent dip here. I think the stock is a buy. I updated my rating on Adobe stock today, March 24th, 2025.
4:58 >> I really like ParkV. I think he's a great great value investor. But at this point, his recent Adobe series of five videos saying, >> "I reiterated my rating, which ranks Adobe among the best 12 or the top 12 stocks you can buy right now." >> Even if I want to trust him, I want to believe him. We should question his judgment on this specific stock. Perkev is not the only one in my skepticism list. For example, another huge huge channel, New Money, three months ago made a discounted cash flow on Adobe under the assumption of a 10% growth for the next 10 years, then gave a 30 times free cash flow terminal multiple top it up by saying the truth is I actually went very conservative here. In fact, Adobe has grown free cash flow at an average rate of over 20% annually for the last 10 years. But with those assumptions disclosed, I ended up getting to an intrinsic value of roughly $266 billion for Adobe today. 3 months later, and we can already see some cracks. Organic growth last quarter has already decelerated under 10% and we can go to check forecaster. Adobe is currently trading at 11 time price to earnings. assuming a terminal value of 30 times seem just a bit optimistic to me and the stock is already down 29 30% since the video dropped the list of highly questionable valuation model published in the last couple of years it's quite long carter call it a buy in March 24 dividend talks in June 24 couch in September 24 and the list could go on for a But I don't want every single finance YouTuber on the planet to hate me. So, let's move on to the absolute worst. As usually, the worst of all are the channel of the big multi-billionaire mainstream media. Listen what they had the courage to say right at the top.
7:09 >> I mean, look at that stock. It's it's come back a long way. However, it's got further to go. If you looked at a 5-year chart now, they've introduced a lot of artificial intelligence products that we think will make a big difference. the economy starts to improve next year, that's good for Adobe and the earnings will start to increase. >> Adobe Express is just incredible. So, I'm excited to see that expand. So, the rally, I think, is certainly justified in the earnings multiple that is is really incorrect in that PE ratio equation.
7:38 >> The quarter itself was good. 13% constant currency growth. That's the same as last quarter. They wrapped up a very good fiscal 23. As it happens, it's the end of their fiscal 23. So they're guiding to fiscal 24 and they're guiding conservatively. >> Let's just take a moment to consider that at $600 per share mainstream media claim Adobe has a bright AI future. AI is a tailwind. PE was going to expand and that management guidance was just conservative. Guys, we can't trust them.
8:13 Now they're spreading panic and fear trying to convince you to sell. Don't listen to them. So the important question, who was right about Adobe? Several people. Let's start with the most popular finance creator. And for a good reason, he timed Adobe greatly. In September 22, right here, Adobe announced the Figma acquisition. This was Joseph Carson. Overall, when I think about this deal, I don't have the same reaction that the market has right now. I think selling down 17% today is an overreaction. I'll probably be buying more Adobe.
8:51 >> Great contrarian mindset. But you might think even if he was buying that bottom, now we are even lower. So is Joseph losing money? The answer is no. In this iconic video, he realized Adobe Firefly was horrible compared to MidJourney. >> So this is Mid Journeys with 11 employees. Here's Adobe Firefly, the company that has 30,000 employees, that's the leader in this technology. We're expecting to see an incredibly good good image generation here.
9:23 Like I I can't What is this? What What are we looking at here? We have Mario in a dim lit street standing there, reflection in the puddle. Let's go ahead and check out Let's check out Adobe Fireflies. >> >> What is this? What is Adobe doing? >> He ended up closing his position completely on August 21st, 2023. Right here. Congratulation on the trade.
9:54 But let's be fair, Joseph. It's also not perfect. For example, he added Adobe on this five stocks to buy list on November last year. Wrong call. But he personally never reopen his position. Instead, no major YouTuber was able to sell at the top. But as I already told you, I watched everybody. Victor H investing December 11, 2023 right here. >> And I think the management team is doing a great job. They have really more cash than debt. So their balance sheets in great shape and well below three times ZBah, but there's no discount on the stock. And I don't pay a premium on stocks. I'd rather wait until there is a a significant pullback on Adobe before I'd enter the stock. So, I'm a seller of Adobe stock.
10:41 >> I'm a seller of Adobe stock right at the top. Incredible forecast. The result, 52 views and six likes, seven likes. YouTube algorithm can be really unfair, but this proved that small tiny YouTubers can outperform big media because we finally we also have access to great tools like Forecaster, the sponsor of this video. It's really a useful tool from Switzerland. Forecaster means profit. If you don't know it, click the link below, give it a try, use the coupon adri to get a discount and help this channel. Thank you. I also have a list of creators that even if they didn't sell on top, they deserve some kudos. 19 March 2024, Asymmetric Investing.
11:32 >> This is still an incredibly expensive stock. And if the company doesn't pick up growth, the future just doesn't look all that attractive. >> 14th of June 2024, Daniel Prank. >> I just don't have the conviction. So to me, the stock does still look quite expensive in after hours trading. And that's my overview of Adobe's Q2 earnings results. >> 3rd December 2025. Zven Catlin. >> Personally, I'll just stay on the side because I have better in my portfolios.
12:04 >> This is useful information because they're changing their opinion. For example, just 10 days ago, Travis was saying this. Shares of Adobe are down a whopping 50% over the past year and the stock looks incredibly cheap, trading for only eight times forward earnings estimates. Like I said, this is not yet a stock that I own, but is on a short list for me because I think that riskreward is starting to be really attractive for investors. Out of the hundreds of video I watched, there are two that I would consider a mustwatch if you're interested in Adobe. On the bullish side, the deep dive of Arya Radna is long and the video is not aging well. However, it's worth watching for his take on AI. The second one, probably even better, neutral approach is the most popular video of Drew Coin. With Drew, we crossed together the 25,000 subscribers, but now he surpassed me.
12:57 This is unacceptable. So, subscribe to this channel or at least unsubscribe from his channel. I'm joking. It deserved a success. Watch this video. It's really great. Now, after all this research, what have I learned about Adobe stock? I don't want to waste your time repeating in details what you already know. The stock is cheap. There is leadership and management uncertainty. AI might be a big problem. Instead, I want to add four quick ideas.
13:28 I didn't hear from anyone else. First, last year in March, when Daniel D bought shares, everybody was screaming, "CFO is buying. Finally, insider buying super bullish signal. One year later, the same person, CFO Daniel Durn, quit to go to work at Marvel together with Iron Man and semiconductors. A good reminder that insiders can also be wrong. Second, Adobe was not allowed to buy Figma for 20 billions three years ago because it was considered too big and powerful.
14:05 Now, not only no one really would consider and say that Adobe is too monopolistic, but they could actually buy Figma for 9 billion in the open market. So, if Adobe's board want to make me the new CEO, that's what I'm going to do. Three, 500 million in AI revenue with 200% growth. I understand it doesn't move the needle for a 80 billion market cap company. Okay. But let's consider Firefly as a pure AI play. If you compare it to other AI pure stocks like Sound AI for example, 180 million in revenue, 80% growth slowing down. So one/ird of the revenue, one/ird of the growth compared to Adobe Firefly.
14:50 If Soundhound the market cap is 2.7 billion using the same pricing, Firefly should be a 15 20 billion business alone. Fourth, everybody is focused on Michael Bur buying heavily on Adobe. But if we check dataroma, there are 12 super investors owning Adobe, 25th in ownership ranking. Personally, I opened a position in February at $280, thinking the market would bounce at this support level. Of course, with my luck, not only the support didn't hold at all, but a few weeks later, the CEO resigned after 18 years. With my valuation system, this new management uncertainty translated directly into higher risk and lower fair value. Basically, I got stuck in a bad situation. I opened a position at 280 thinking I have a very good margin of safety with the fair value at 450.
15:53 But now with increasing risks, my fair value is coming down along with the price. With my system, I projected a growth of 8% for the next five years. But if the growth will keep slowing down under my 8% would bring my fair value even lower and I could be in big trouble. So it's very important for me that Adobe finds a new and capable CEO and they keep delivering growth of at least 8%.
16:26 If this is going to happen, I believe investors are going to be fine, at least the one that have an average entry price under $300. To sum it up, I'm not selling my position because I believe even if the moat is shrinking, even if the fair value is coming down and even if there are a lot of unpredictable risks, I believe that these risks at $200 are more than priced in already. On the other end, I'm not buying more because even if the price is coming down, the fair value is coming down as well. Overall on June 28th, 2026, I agree with ParkV. I believe the company is a buy at this valuation. Charlie, what's your opinion on Adobe? No, don't don't eat the lamp. No, Charlie, leave the lamp in peace, Charlie.
17:21 Unfortunately, she's young. She doesn't have mang experience. Yes. If you're looking for some other ideas or contrarian stocks, check out my complete portfolio in this video right here. Thank you. Thank you for watching until the end. Please like, comment. See you next week. Peace out.