Transcript
0:00 The reason Bitcoin to me is the ultimate choice, it is the S&P 500 of 10 years from now, is not because of anything special about it from an innovation perspective, it's because it doesn't suffer from time, because it's not based on time. >> >> Everything else is based on time, and people are going to have to start to process that, because the world is spinning much faster than it ever has. >> What's going on, guys? Today, we got a great conversation with Jordie Visser.
0:25 In this, we talk about AI stocks, why it's bounced so hard off the bottom, how Jordie's thinking about interest rates, inflation, and the recent report. And then, we get into what's going on in the crypto world, blockchain companies, and figure technologies is absolutely exploding. He explains how he thinks about that. And then, we have a very philosophical conversation about time, and why AI agents may be changing the way you should think about earnings and different economic interest that's going on in the market. Here's my latest conversation with Jordie Visser.
0:51 All right, Jordie, the bears are in disbelief. The S&P's at a new all-time high. The bull market continues. Woo! What's going on? Why are stocks still going higher? >> Everyone hates AI, so that's why it's going higher. I What do you want to say? Earnings are growing, and the S&P is not growing at the same pace as earnings right now. So, right now, we're headed for year-over-year at above 30%. The S&P, when you annualize the performance, we're going to come in, assuming that we continue at this pace, somewhere in around 20%. So, we've seen multiple compression. Everyone started to build in rate hikes.
1:26 We've got inflation that just keeps surprising on the lower end, but people keep worrying that it's going to go higher. I think it's actually kind of amazing that we have rate hikes built in at all. Two-year rates are still well above the Fed funds rate right now. so, I I think in general, when you go through everything and you realize we just had a negative payroll job number, we had inflation on the lower end, we had PPI surprise there, we had the retail sales number, which came out soft.
1:55 The economy is good, but most of the good is happening within inside AI, and I think we're just at a point where people are having a a hard time embracing this. And I just will say for for valid reasons, particularly when you look at some of the AI charts. If you go to the Cospi and you visually look at the chart, I mean, it broke down hard. It kind of looks a lot like Bitcoin. It just happened in a month as opposed to 9 months. But here's the reality, it's still up 70% year-to-date. Or yeah, the Cospi 200 is. And that just makes it a scenario that I think people are going to remain bearish the entire time, and it's a reflection of them not understanding AI. And I think this is going to be a problem that continues. So we'll be climbing a wall of AI worry for a long time.
2:42 >> You basically called the bottom of the AI kind of drawdown here. You said situational awareness was the kind of capitulation event. You thought that we had bottomed. It does look like we've done that. you have a AI thematic portfolio that you've put together. people can go find this at 22V research. I think the URL is ai.22vresearch.com. And that portfolio has, if I remember correctly, like 100 names or so. And it has bounced super hard off of the bottom. Talk a little bit as to like the themes that you've put in there. And then why do you look at this as somewhat of like an index of the AI trade?
3:18 >> All right. First of all, because it's a a pet peeve of mine, there's no such thing as calling bottoms or calling tops. Now, I think for a lot of people who trade, they're trying to do that. That is not possible. What I do believe is possible is that you change your views in this kind of ebb and flow to where the risk-reward increases. So, when situational awareness happened and we talked about it, what I said at that time, both here and on the video that I do every week, was that the probabilities and the risk-reward from this point are fantastic because we had a obvious market clearing event.
3:56 What I said in that weekend video, we we absolutely probably have 100 other situational awareness situations, not to the same degree and not big enough to matter. We've seen some hedge funds be down 25-30% for the month. So, there were a lot of losses. But when you disclose and something that big gets happened, a lot of people were hedging in front of it and so you're going to increase probability. I just want to bring that up because I think the mistake people are going to make with AI is trying to pick tops and bottoms. When I got out of Micron, the price of Micron is still above where it was when I sold out. What I said on the show was at below 900, I started buying some. Well, I didn't pick the bottom. It's above there now.
4:39 It went above it once, it went below it. I got to buy some stuff with a seven handle at 700 and change, which was still above where I was. I'm not trying to pick tops and bottoms. If you use Micron as an example, why would you ever buy something at a higher price? Well, because I got new information, first of all. The new information was that the earnings came in better than expected and they signed long-term agree- agreements, meaning they're not going to have cyclical earnings the way they did in the past.
5:03 Number two, the compute situation everyone started to worry because of the open source where to me the compute demand is actually accelerated and DRAM prices have gone higher. So, when you add in the new information, I just reset my brain and I go, "You know what? I'm not going to be as big as I was when it was 600 or 700, but that was after an eight-bagger. I'm going to start building a position because I believe between now and the end of the year the probability of it being higher than it is today based on the new information has increased." That is the way you think about things and that way, just like I've said before, my father trained me ahead of handicap horse races, all of the odds in the market are based on new information and have people cleanse their system. We've seen massive deleveraging. So, for the AI trade as as a just a general thing, we've seen it go up and the volume has been very, very low. The The volume getting out was much higher, which I highlighted on the videos. Those are capitulation type events. People have to remember that a lot of demand soaked things up at lower prices. And then when you start rallying on lower volume, that's different than the way people were trained. But I think what it says to me is people are now caught missing out. The earnings have been fantastic almost across the board. And it's not just my 100 name index. The 10 name index, which are the test the 10 names I selected that were the most correlated.
6:18 They're in each of the different components, meaning like optical, semiconductors. you've got Nvidia in there. You've got Intel because CPUs as opposed to GPUs. You've got Marvell in there for the optical side on the semiconductors. But then you also have Caterpillar and you have Corning and things like that. That one has bounced back more than 50% of the fall. And part of the strength that has been there is it's not allowing anyone to get back in because there's really not been any correction. So that's the way I'd view it. I try to help people with this, but the reality is you don't pick tops and bottoms. You want to ride this thing for the next 5 years because demand is still greater than it was at the beginning of the year.
6:54 >> All right. So you're calling the top and calling tops and bottoms. I got you. >> >> Yes. Never never never tell me I've picked a bottom or a top. It's bad juju, but it's also not true. >> >> All right. inflation came in and it was much weaker than people I think were predicting. And I had a a guy say, "Oh, Jordy Vasa was wrong." And I actually defended you. I said, "I don't think that's true. I think that you were very clear that there was kind of this probabilistic outcome of higher inflation, but different variations of that." I think that what we saw and what appears to have been the peak of inflation was well within that probabilistic, you know, kind of spectrum that you had outlined.
7:31 How are you thinking about this specific inflation report? And then how are you thinking about it going forward? And whether that's going to continue to be kind of a buoy to the stock market? >> So I going to use a word here that I used in a sub a post that I did for the subscribers, but I also posted in Substack cuz I think it was that important. And we briefly talked about this last week about the dollar yen intervention and how important it is from a contextual basis. And you're going to start hearing me say this all the time because the part of inflation is in the context of tariffs, in the context of oil prices soaring higher, in the context of fertilizer, all of the things that happen in the context of nominal GDP accelerating, inflation theoretically, if you put all those together, you'd think they would be much higher.
8:27 Core CPI at the beginning of at the end of last year was 2.6% year over year. Here we are, it's now 2.5%, which is basically at the lowest level. When you go through Trueflation, when you go through Trimmean, when you go through I could name, and I do this each week, I actually created a composite. Inflation to me is something that should be higher than it is today based on everything we're seeing. And contextually, I will argue again and again that we're starting to see the deflationary pressures of AI. As AI agents have come this year, we focus on the demand side that is going, but one of the things that's happening is car insurance, you're getting more startup car insurance places that are willing to sell car insurance at lower prices, places like Lemonade.
9:14 And if every company was using AI in their business and their margins were improving, then they'd be able to lower prices. So, theoretically, if profit margins are going higher and the competition using AI is finally starting to see some of the benefits and productivity is coming, you will start to see the deflationary pressure start showing up sooner rather than later. I appreciate you defending me. anyone who watches this, if you're going to judge people on things they say, then you're basically saying I don't want you to make any predictions. If you're going to critique them for being wrong, I don't critique people for making predictions. I critique them for being stubborn and for not adjusting to new information and changing as the data changes. That is a Bayesian mindset that every investor has to have. So, if you're a trader sitting at home and you're looking for calls and going, "Well, I I followed what they said and and and they were wrong." Well, you're not making your own decisions.
10:06 Everything that I say should not be used as investment advice. You guys read this in disclaimers. What is supposed to happen, to go back to the inflation side, is in a contextual side, inflation is far weaker than I would have expected and that says to me that going forward from here, if oil prices end up the year at 65, I'm actually shocked oil prices, given the fact a war is still going on and there's no agreement, are not higher. And you know, one of the reasons that's starting to show up that they're not higher, you're starting to read more that the pipelines are being built. The getting rid of Hormuz as an important thing, that's new information. Is it here today? No. But if the oil market thinks it's going to be here in 3 years, which they do, well, then all of a sudden this Hormuz thing doesn't matter for 3-year prices, it just matters for 1-year price and clearly at this point something else is going on. So, this is kind of an answer to your question, but it's also a learning lesson for people that when you hear Bayesian philosophy, when you hear Bayesian mindset, you have to be willing to change your view based on the data that's provided. That is the reason why we do these data-driven thing. I will never sit there and show people my guesses on things without providing some sort of documentation, proof, or data to support the reasoning behind it. And if it changes, I'll turn. AI mid-cycle slowdown turns into situational panic.
11:25 That's two different things. So, >> Now, when we go and we look at, the intersection of crypto, AI, finance, investing, etc. I think you and I spend all of our time at that intersection. And some weeks we talk more about AI stuff, some weeks we talk more about Bitcoin and crypto stuff, some weeks frankly we just talk about macro environment and what's going on geopolitics or interest rates, etc. there's a story that frankly I've been involved with for a long time, but even I don't think I quite appreciated how good of a company Figure Technologies has become now.
11:58 They did earnings this past week and they reported revenue growing at over 100% year-over-year and EBITDA growing at more than 50% year-over-year. That gives them kind of this rule of 150, which puts them in a very, very rare, you know, group of companies. There's like two other companies in the world in the public markets that are large that that that fit that. When you look at that business, to me what's fascinating given kind of the backdrop of what we talk about, they've got some AI and automation, they've got obviously a blockchain, they are involved in traditional finance in terms of lending, which is very susceptible and sensitive to interest rates. Like they may be one of the companies out of a handful that are living at the intersection of this and they're both benefiting from it, but also they're having to deal with all the challenges, whether it's regulatory or technological change, etc. And so maybe let's just spend a couple minutes talking about, you know, we've said Eli Lilly was growing revenue I think at like 50% year-over-year and they're a trillion-dollar business. Well, here's another example of a company that is accelerating, they're growing revenue at more than 100% year-over-year, EBITDA at 50 plus percent a year, doing hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue and it feels like, hey, this may start to become many more stories of this rather than just one, you know, one company or two companies for us to point at, right?
13:11 >> You and I have have spoken, I don't know how far, we're we're a year and almost a half into us doing this show. >> Best year and a half of my life. >> Yeah, it's been good for me, too. Yeah, you've you've had a lot of children, there's been a lot of things going on. >> No, no, just just cuz I talk to you every Friday. >> Okay. All right. I'm going to explain a couple things here as to why people are making a big mistake on crypto in terms of not doing all of their homework on it cuz I think you've hit on a very important point.
13:41 The next phase of what I'm going to do with my weekly YouTube's and what I'm doing with my subscriber paywall is basically to prepare people to understand how Figure can actually be growing at the pace that they are despite the regulatory side. So, let's go through how business gets done. If you buy a house, when's the last time you bought a house or a apartment or anything? >> I prefer to be asset light there, Jordy. >> Okay. So, let's assume for example >> a couple years ago.
14:09 >> Okay. And how long of a process and how arduous is it to go from you find a house, you make a decision, you agree on a buyer and a seller, from that point, think about how long it takes even if you're going to pay them in all cash. >> Fastest I've seen it happen is closing in 2 weeks and everyone gets really uncomfortable because they think that's too fast and everyone freaks out and they're like, "Well, let's just do 30 days." But usually, I don't know, 60-day close, something like that.
14:37 >> So, imagine if the house closed and then immediately, that day, like you bought it and it was that day, then everyone gets to go sell another home and you get to have more transactions. And so, the companies that are benefiting, and let's just use Figure as an example, if they're able to eliminate all the middle men and they're able to eliminate the friction of all of the money thing, the credit checks, all of the things that go on, all of those hands that equal the 30 days in an all cash transaction. Once you start getting into I need to borrow the money for a mortgage, which most people do, the whole process takes forever. Well, guess what?
15:14 GDP suffers from that. Earnings for a company suffer from that. If they they do these transactions much faster. At a slightly lower price than where the fiat system is trading, then gradually over time you're going to start seeing deflation. You're going to see more transactions and what you start getting into is what Caitlin Long talked about. The velocity of money, the velocity of transactions is going to increase significantly. Because we measure things in human time, year-over-year. Why do we care about a year?
15:48 What what does year-over-year mean? If you can do the same amount of transactions in a quarter as you used to do in a year? Well, when Figure has similar growth numbers to what an AI company does, meaning their transactions are growing at 50, 60, 70%. I think people need to start investing and looking into this because every day that AI agents become a reality, right now most of this stuff is happening without true agentic world. Meaning, "Hey, go out and find me a house that I want to buy or rent or do whatever and just get it done for me." And it's done within minutes. Or you buy a house and immediately the next day you're like, "You know what? I put all this money into the house. What I want to do right now is go borrow on it because something else came up."
16:33 You have to go through If you just bought a house and now you want to go borrow on it, well, that's a that's a process. It's not going to work. Why are you borrowing? What's going on? If everything is tokenized, you can start to see how the economy starts to move at a faster pace. So, when people look at S&P earnings growth of year-over-year of 30 plus percent, and I sit there and go, "Guys, you're not realizing that the beauty of the math in this is as agentic and crypto starts to impact and intersect together, the ability for the agents to transact faster needs the wallets and the money and all of the guardrails that go on. It might take another 2 years, 3 years. And this is why the regulatory side clarity act has an impact on hedge funds looking at this. But at some point, the disruptive nature of AI allowing the crypto companies to grow fast. The companies with the financial guardrails that are starting with DeFi and all these things. This is why I'm creating an index which converges on the crypto tokens on different verticals or sectors of the future.
17:30 Combine with the public companies like Figure, like Hood, like PayPal, like Coinbase, the ones that are already public, this intersection is going to be one of the most explosive growth points we've seen because these companies are going to be disrupting from the middle men that cost you time and money every single day. Those dollars are going to flow into the landscape of the most efficient places. Mark my words, you will all be paying attention to crypto a year from now. So, when you're looking at the prices and you're looking at Bitcoin, I know it's anxiety-filled. It's not going up. Oh, the Clarity Act is there. Oh, the Fed's going to raise rates three times. Just remember, this is all noise within inside a secular trend.
18:12 >> So, what's interesting is when I first invested in Figure, I was through Morgan Creek. And at the time, they basically were saying, "Hey, we are going to create a decentralized DTCC, kind of a settlement, you know, type organization." And what they very quickly realized is you could build the technology with no one to use it. No one believed that it had any value. And so, Mike Cagney is a fantastic entrepreneur. He said, "Well, I'll prove to you that this is valuable." And so, he started actually originating loans himself, and then he was basically selling them on the back end to to these providers. So, he said, "If I need one side of the marketplace to show up, and I can't convince anyone, I'll just go do it myself." And what I found so interesting about it was their pitch early on, definitely to the consumer, but even to investors, was we can issue a HELOC and tell somebody in 5 minutes whether they're going to get it or not, and they can have the money in their account within like 5 days. I think it was like the promise. And the way that they did this was you basically went in and you connected your bank account, and then they could read through your bank account and find all kinds of interesting data points. They could see, you know, how much money do you make and verify that or where do you work as the employer because you get a direct deposit.
19:17 All of this like quote unquote automation had nothing to do with the blockchain. It was all about using modern technologies, not even AI necessarily, just using plaid connections and being smart and and all that kind of stuff. But it was a better user experience and so they went from nothing to the third largest HELOC originator in the country very quickly. And the reason why I bring that up is because I think that we're seeing this. Robinhood is doing it. I think Robinhood now has seven or eight different lines of business that do at least $100 million of revenue.
19:44 They have a brokerage business, but they got a lot of businesses. Right? And so if you start to just go through Stripe, Robinhood, you know, Figure, etc., it almost feels like the technologists have realized that they are going to be able to automate and rip out these inefficiencies in a way that is going to accelerate growth and also drop the expenses that are associated with delivering these services. And so then the question shifts to okay, well, if you're JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, if you're a MasterCard and Visa and some of these guys, are those just shorts? Like are they screwed? Or do you see them starting to say, "Wait a second, we got to get in this game as well." Like how as an investor do you think through? We know the the the new tech kind of finance type companies, they're all doing very well.
20:28 How do you then go and evaluate the kind of banks or legacy finance firms, you know, in a portfolio? >> Okay, so this is this is a complex question which has a complex answer. >> Okay. >> I spent a lot of time, by the way, looking at Figure's business. I probably would be would speak of them more both here and on my video if they had taken the time for management to actually speak with me, which I have requested, to learn more. Because a lot of the things that you mentioned on the HELOC side, I wanted to connect them to tokenization. I wanted to connect them to the thought process and that's what I asked when they when they approached me and I said, "Hey, I'd be very interested in learning more about the business, but I got to talk to management." I've I've been a partner at a Fortune 500 company. I've run a bunch of businesses. I have my own business.
21:15 I'm just interested in knowing, but they were so busy that that's a reflection of how fast they're growing. Also, >> We'll fix that, Jordy. Don't worry. >> No, no, no. Don't fix anything for me. >> Mike, come on, man. >> No, and and what I did is I watched a lot of YouTubes with Mike. I went through a lot of the business. I was very interested from my macro mosaic perspective to the question you're answering. You're asking. And the reason is for me, I'm a dot connector. If they grow super fast and they apply pressure to JP Morgan, what How is JP Morgan going to compete? Well, number one, JP Morgan has all the eyeballs. They have all the money. They have the deposits.
21:50 They have all this stuff there. So, theoretically, if they can do this business, they'll be able to compete and knock them out. That's what happened in the past. The problem is, in today's world, people, the reason JP Morgan is a short, not in an absolute basis, but relative to companies like Figure and the other token-based companies that are going to grow faster is because they don't have the legacy employees. And I want to make sure everyone understands this. JP Morgan is a bureaucracy. They've accumulated so many companies. Chemical So, like I You can go through the list of banks that they've accumulated. Jamie Dimon came from a bank.
22:31 It's not that their business isn't good. It's that they can only grow at human speed. For them to actually convert into a crypto {slash} AI fast business, it's very hard to do that. You're seeing what's happened to salesforce.com. That's an AI company who's out there selling a Gentex site. It's very hard to do that. Google. Demis Hassabis and Jeff Dean just left. This is a major story. Why? And no, I know Demis Hassabis didn't leave yet, but the story is that he was going to leave. Why did those guys leave? Because Google is a bureaucracy. Think about that, guys. A company that is growing their revenues at 30 plus percent is a bureaucracy.
23:13 This is a problem for the future. So, eventually, will these companies go down? I don't know. I just know right now they're not growing as fast. That's why the portfolio that I put together is the receivers of the infrastructure right now, and their earnings are growing far faster. Micron's earnings are growing far faster than anything that Ford, to use an example, can do. Ford can't grow their revenues any better. How are they going to do that?
23:36 They're an old company with a lot of debt and a lot of pensions. The world is evolving into what you're describing, and companies like Figure and companies that are inside the crypto and the AI world, they're just going to grow faster, and that's why the AI native companies will eventually disrupt the public companies, and this is why I spend my time on the merging of the old world that is full of middle men that the middle men are the S&P 500. The companies like Figure are not middle men. They are actually trying to disrupt that business, and the HELOC side gets into how can I borrow money on my house?
24:11 It gets back to the tokenization side. So, eventually, over time, when you get everything on the blockchain and you can do everything real time, speed of AI is what's changing, and I'll leave you with this. I'm spending more time on this concept of time. AI moves at a speed that our brains cannot handle, that businesses cannot handle. Crypto will be connected to AI agents very soon. The stablecoin volumes and the transactions are going already at paces that we've never seen before.
24:41 Every day, it's only going to more intensify. The reason Bitcoin, to me, is the ultimate choice, it is the S&P 500 of 10 years from now, is not because of anything special about it from an innovation perspective? It's because it doesn't suffer from time because it's not based on time. Everything else is based on time and people are going to have to start the process that cuz the world is spinning much faster than it ever has.
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26:38 There's now a rumor that maybe actually it's OpenAI who's kind of forcing their hand and saying, "Hey, let's change out some people." Anthropic is supposedly kind of tightening their belt getting ready to go public. When you look at something like a Figure, when you look at something like a Robin Hood, these kind of like digital native or AI friendly type companies that are not necessarily large language models, but they are definitely more AI friendly than the big banks or you know, all these other kind of incumbent businesses, does that get you excited to see the large language models come into the market or do you still think that those companies may have some work to do before they become public? And the reason I ask that is I have talked to I don't know, four or five investors over the last month or so that have literally told me they have money sitting aside in cash because they are waiting to deploy it into the large language model labs when they go public.
27:28 And so it feels like they're like, oh, if that happens in the next month or so, I don't want to be invested somewhere else and then have to go sell and incur taxes, etc. And I took that as a little surprising because that's not really the way I invest and you know, it it was something I hadn't heard before. >> so there's a lot in that question. I'm going to gear it towards the first thing you said. Let's use Anthropic because everyone has now heard that they're on by the end of this year people expect them to be let's say to 120 billion ARR.
28:01 The reason I emphasize the ARR, you know what that is? That's human time. So, how many people actually know at the end of this year if I say, well, the ARR now for this month is 120 billion. That makes it real easy. So that means that that would make that final month at 10 billion. At some point you're still annualizing things on human time. Meaning, we know that on something you brought up and I think this is the important point, open source is happening and AI native businesses are not using Anthropic the way that big companies are using them.
28:43 Anthropic's revenues are being dominated by the big companies, the big Fortune 500 companies, the middle men trying to figure a way to replace their employees with the LLMs. The other thing you and I have talked about is specialized models are probably going to win, meaning an open-source model that's trained on your data is probably better. I've said that the frontier models are really critical because you need to have models that are trying to be 2,000 IQ, not ones that are trying to stop at 150 IQ, which is all you need to replace human beings. So, A&A businesses don't need 2,000 IQ.
29:20 For big companies that are very complex, for governments, for science, for all of these things, we need 2,000 IQs because the systems are extremely complex. But for running a business where you're just trying to have revenues that are higher than expense, you probably don't need to have 2,000 IQs, you just need to have this unless you're trying to build the biggest business on the planet. So, the reason I bring all this up is we're getting to the point where as people use AI more and more, they're going to start to realize that a lot of these numbers that are being thrown around, the biggest risk to Anthropic is not whether their ARR gets to a trillion dollars next year.
29:57 It's probably more if they're only at 200 billion next year. Their valuation's going to come down sharply because once it's not a plateau, once the growth rate actually starts to slow in a meaningful, discernable way, the valuation is going to come down and we've seen that already in the market. So, whenever I say multiple compression to people, multiple compression gets back to terminal value. Terminal value gets back into if something's not growing close to the pace of AI, so when Palantir reported earnings, their company revenue is growing at 149%.
30:35 It's less than I think a billion dollars still. But Palantir's growing rapidly now. They've had a bad year relative to Anthropic, but their revenues are growing extremely fast. And so, if you get to the point where, okay, that's a year-over-year basis. Anthropic right now is clearly growing faster than year-over-year cuz if they've gone from 1 billion to 2 billion to 3 billion to 4 billion each month, and they're going to finish the year around 10 billion, but their growth rate is actually starting to slow down. I think people are going to get into this concept of time again and understanding. So, that was a long way of basically going through, I think everything that you brought up for people.
31:11 We're now doing what used to take 10 years in 3 months. You have to be careful that when the growth rate starts to slow, that means competition has come into your world, and that's going to affect every investor over the course of the next decade. >> Can I give you a a non-technical indicator as to the proliferation of AI and the adoption of AI that is sounding the alarm in my life? >> I love when you, first of all, ask me for approval to say anything on your own show. That That's a sign of respect.
31:43 Secondly, I like when you get serious cuz there's usually a joke in there. So, go ahead. >> Well, it's like you ever seen the joke when a toddler gives you a sticker that's a sign of respect in their culture, right? That that's ask me asking you as a sign of respect in my culture. all right, so my wife, amazing woman, up until 2 weeks ago, the use of AI was pretty much supercharged Google. She would ask it questions. She liked that it would give her really, you know, kind of thorough answers. it remembered things about her, and so she could, you know, kind of have conversations, but it was basically she was using it as a replacement for Google.
32:20 As you can imagine, some of the questions, I'm like, "What are you talking to you know, what are you asking the AI?" Whatever, but like that that's what she was using it for. She just signed up for her very first, what I'll call, AI agent or AI co-pilot. It is supposed to be a family household manager. Just shut the internet down. Like it's over. It's over. We we we have infiltrated the moms with the AI. This thing texts her every morning. Here's a bunch of things on the to-do list. Here's things that you have coming up. Here's things that you told me. She's, you know, using it as a back-and-forth like a almost like a friend or an assistant, right? And she's really kind of in this.
33:01 And I she didn't even know I'm going to bring this up, but I've been watching over the last, you know, 2 weeks or so. It has changed the way that she thinks about technology, AI, etc. But it's changing what she's doing on a day-to-day basis. And I think that one, it's reducing like mental load. And so she's like outsourcing the intelligence. She's using it someone as like a to-do list. But also, it is connecting dots that she's like, "Wow, this is really helpful."
33:26 The reason why I use that as like the the non-technical indicator, when you get to the moms, it's over. Like the technology's not going away. It has finally reached the like product market fit, you know, etc. Now, she may not be that unique. And she may even be a late adopter. Like there's probably other people who've been using, you know, all this kind of stuff, whatever. And we've talked previously about the woman who homeschools her kids. And she's been using it to create, you know, everything from coloring books to lesson plans, you know, all this stuff.
33:55 It feels like the conversation is turning from data centers are bad, AI is bad, it's going to take our jobs, etc. To now you're starting to see the positive impact on everyday Americans' lives. And they're realizing there's nuance. They're not 100% on board. They're not going to just walk away from the data center debate, etc. But you can see the way that the the companies are talking, Facebook, Anthropic, they're talking about team human, right? They they're they've softened their language.
34:21 They they're starting to say, "Hey, this is here to help you." To me, that's actually a massive tailwind for all of the AI stocks. Because you're not going to have people fighting it as hard. And so if people think it's valuable, they start using this stuff, and you don't have people fighting it at every step. I mean, what, another 2, 3 years of the AI trade? Probably now, you know, we've got the foundation for them and like here we go.
34:47 >> You're You're bringing things that just as I'm listening, I just keep I keep thinking of which parts of I think a lot. I have a lot of conversations with with AI. And I do it in my car, I do it everywhere. So, I'm going to give you an answer for Paulina. It's surprising to me just because I've I've read her work, I've written things about the work that she's done. She's a smart woman who has deep thoughts.
35:17 >> she also thinks a lot, Jordi. Don't worry. >> Yeah. No, no, no. And again, I I wrote a paper where I referenced the book. It had an It had an impact on the way that I think about things, and that happens a lot with AI. So, one of the reasons that I publicly say that I hated school is cuz I think school's a complete waste of time. I always thought that. So, this is not something new.
35:38 And to be honest with you, whatever people think of me, my brain is my best asset. Like it works really hard. But here's the thing, everyone who has a child that's been annoyed at some point when the kid is in the backseat asking a question and then it Hey, why is the sky blue? And then you try to give an answer, and then they follow it up with another question, and then you give it another one, and finally you're like, "Hey, can you stop asking me questions?"
36:03 You don't want to stop that. And with AI, it never stops. If I have a question about anything, the the charts that I create, a lot of them are created by AI doing the work for me. I'm going to show a bunch of things this weekend that I created. People don't realize that when I'm on AI, when I'm in my car and I'm talking to Grok, this is a conversation. When you use Google, you're getting you're searching for answers, and then you get that answer and you think that's the answer. There I I hate to tell people, my father was 100% right. Nothing you hear from me, from Anthony, from any expert is truth.
36:39 It is an opinion. And opinions get incorporated by you into your own brain, and you should never take anything. That's why again, what I say is not investment advice. What I'm saying is I'm doing a lot of work probing thought to give to you for you to make your own decision. You don't have to believe me that I think Bitcoin's going to go higher. If I believed it was 100%, I'd have all my money in it. I'd be leveraged and go through it. I know there's a possibility it goes to zero. It's just a low probability relative this. So, everything that you said, for people that have not yet used AI to the degree that you just described, if you want to get used to agents and know the value they bring, you have to have a conversation with it, and you have to ask the question, "But why?" I'm going to give all the parents out there one thing. Every single parent that I know has at least if they have three children, one of them has a pretty severe anxiety problem, almost assuredly, just based on the math.
37:38 The reason that anxiety is there is because of technology and because we don't converse as much as we used to and get our feelings out. It is a very powerful thing to be able to speak to your parents with empathy and not be judged and to go through this. And when you consume things in X and you consume things in TikTok and Instagram, your brain's not getting relaxation. It's getting constant opinions and judgments and things like that. If you talk to AI, "Hey, this is how I feel. I want to go through it." Don't treat it as your therapist. Just treat it as having a conversation. I think the more people have conversation with AI and realize this is a an unbiased group. If you don't like the answers, you go to the other LLM, or you just ask the question again. you will get different questions.
38:24 It's more about human beings having conversations and connecting dots, and that's what you were bringing up. I'm I'm a believer that both the school system, Google search, and this whole searching for answers thing is a major problem. Everything is an opinion. You need to find ways to gather more intelligence and gather more opinions on your own life cuz only you know about you. >> You know what's interesting is speaking of young kids, I think I've talked previously about testing the kids with AI. So you just ask, you know, whatever your favorite model is, you know, ask 10 questions for a smart, you know, 5-year-old, 6-year-old, whatever.
39:00 The kids love it cuz they're talking to a machine and you know, the questions are are variable, etc. But one of the interesting things is when a kid has a question, you can actually tell the AI to explain the pro and the con of this to a 6-year-old, 7-year-old, whatever. And what it starts to do, what I've noticed, is it starts to get them to think not just as there's a single answer, but that there's actually multiple sides to what people think about this.
39:29 And so it's less almost about the information as much as it is like you're implicitly teaching the kid how to think. And my kids are still young, so like we'll see if that ends up, you know, screwing them up or or helping them in their lifetime. But it feels like something I didn't get exposed to. Like there was no teacher who was like, you know, here's the pros and cons of the teacher was just like, you know, the answer is C on the multiple choice test and you know, make sure you memorize that so that next Friday you get it right on the on the quiz.
39:57 That's a very different way of learning than, you know, kind of this probabilistic thinking, this this, you know, two three-dimensional you know, kind of analysis of different topics. >> Well, that's when I did a paper on an AI mindset, I used three examples of what you're saying. I call my own way that I think about things as mosaic thinking. I don't believe there's anything in life where you make a decision and there aren't multiple trade-offs that come with that decision. And so I try to think about all the trade-offs that come with it and make a decision that I feel most comfortable with there. But if you're not thinking about the trade-offs, I don't want to go skiing cuz I might die. Well, that's a that's only taking one outcome into play. If I said that skiing is the most relaxing thing I've ever taught myself in my lifetime post the age of 40 and it's one of the greatest things that I believe I gave to my kids as a gift, it's because skiing down a mountain is a microcosm of life. And the trade-offs that came with me, I could hurt my knee, I could hurt my ankle, I could go through it. I thought about all the benefits that would come for my family to watch my children at 3 and 5 years old be capable of doing something that I can do, but they can do it better by the time they're 5, to give them confidence.
41:06 I thought about so many different things. Systems thinking. So, you approach things from, okay, there's a bunch of things. How do we start at this point, but at the end, what are the benefits that'll come? Let me there's not just one benefit or pro or con, there's many of them. The Santa Fe Institute, thinking holistically on this whole thing and trying to get being an FBI agent trained at Quantico. They train your brain to go this way. This is the benefits that come with AI with doing exactly what you're saying. And that's why a lot of the prompts I have are look at what happened in this context.
41:38 So, when I started this whole thing up, I said, in the contextual side, inflation is much lower than I would have expected in this context. That is saying it's not that inflation is above the 2% target, it's that, oh my god, in the context of what's happening, I would think it would be much higher. We printed so much money back in what we have the unemployment rate near all-time lows. The labor force participation rate is going down. We've got ice going into cities, we're focused on reducing All of these things would suggest to me that inflation would be higher. That's why when you do it in the reverse and you think of things in a contextual manner, if I'm Kevin Warsh and I'm saying the things I'm saying in front of Congress, which is I'm going to have a forward look at things as opposed to the answer right now, which is it's above this, I think you start making this different decisions and I think what you just brought up is really important for kids to be learning right now because I think the faster the world moves, the more the information you get today is irrelevant because the new news is already coming out before you even process the old news.
42:43 >> So, you mentioned ICE and I saw this article a couple of weeks ago. I just pulled it up. These numbers, I think, are not quite at least my opinion as to what the effect on the economy is. I think that there there's some debate, so let's talk about it. ABC News says that US immigration authorities removed more than 350,000 individuals so far in fiscal year 2026, according to the official ICE numbers. Now, of that 350,000, they're saying about 65,000 are still in detention facilities in the US, 60% of those have a criminal record, according to the agency, etc.
43:18 There's still about 2 months or so left in the current fiscal year, which ends September 30. So, if you kind of extrapolate that out, it'll probably be over 400,000 when when it's done. Now, when you look at that, that is an average of 1,400 arrests per day in the month of June was the average, about 1,450 or so. There was a belief, I think, when a lot of this started that deportations would be deflationary. You're taking people out of an economy and that should take away demand for housing, for goods, for all this stuff. Now, 350,000, 400,000, there's you know, whatever, 330 million Americans, right, that live in the country. So, it's still a relatively small number.
44:01 But, in certain areas, I have seen people try to correlate, hey, there ICE has really been aggressive or really been active in certain areas and therefore is there an impact on price? Forget for a second what the data says. Theoretically, do you buy into the deportations are deflationary or do you think that it is maybe inflationary or or just has a a minimal impact given the numbers we're talking? >> Well, again, I I think in the context of where we are with everything else going on, meaning the acceleration of AI, the fact that we've got digital employees stepping into the world right now, and the fact that we had a lot of people come into the country where in in the prior years, I think all of this stuff in the numbers gets washed out by so many different things that are moving at the exact same time.
44:51 if we hadn't had a rapid rise in inflation to where inflation is a major voting issue in this country. Now, the year-over-year numbers, honestly, what's the difference between 2 and 1/2 and 2% in terms of like I for people that are barely above the poverty line, every basis point matters. But when you're in a country with this much well, from a GDP perspective, it doesn't change anything. The reason it has such an impact on inflation is trust me. I mean, I just got my latest statement for car insurance on my Tesla. It's insane. I mean, I literally said to the person, you're telling me I have to pay this much for a five-year I have a five-year-old Tesla.
45:36 And in the value of the Tesla versus each year, I'm paying like 5 to 10% of the cost of the value of it today. Now, why is that there? Because we printed tons of money from 2020 to save us from a pandemic. So, the reason I brought all that up is not to avoid the question. It's that that can be thrown into the mix with all of these other things that are going on and there's no way to know the answer and it's an issue that is a hot button issue for people in the country. I saw a protest just yesterday in on a street corner in Maine, a random street corner with seven people protesting ICE. So, this is a a situation that I think when you're reading stats, the ones you're reading, those are published by someone for some reason. There's another stat which is published for someone for another reason. And so, I don't know what you're you know, what anyone's reading that is true. I don't know how you know the numbers that are true. I'm just going to say when you bring up inflation or deflation, there's a lot of factors going on, and I try not to get caught in where they are today. I get caught more on where do I think everything will be in 3 years from now, and I think inflation is going to have a lot of headwinds to go higher.
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47:35 Sign up and start earning today at galaxy.app/pomp to be eligible for the $3,000 bonus. Again, galaxy.app/pomp. Go check them out today. >> These are micro protests. There's There's I've seen a number of them in New York City, and it's usually, you know, I don't know, less than 30 people. and they've got signs, and they're actually like well-produced if if that's a way to describe it. Like, you know, like they have signs, they're they're organized, whatever. But, it's a small number of people. And it's not always clear what they're protesting, but they generally have a direction, right? They don't like the current administration, they don't like the deportations, whatever it is.
48:13 And one of the aspects that I actually think is maybe most interesting is usually in the ones I've seen there are not a lot of young people. It's usually middle-aged and older people. And so, you know, I don't know what to read into that. Some of it maybe just be like, "Hey, people, you know, young people don't want to go stand out on the street corner. They'd rather like post on social media about this stuff." Some of it maybe they're like working at their job and, you know, they they don't have time to do this.
48:38 but it might not be that different than what's happened in the past. Like, there's always been protests against governments and, you know, all this kind of stuff. So, I find it very fascinating that there's so much media coverage of it all. But, again, I think maybe what your point is is like, if you can insulate yourself from like what everyone yelling and screaming about and just look at like companies are going faster than the S&P is growing in terms of their earnings and their data. That is way more important than like what's happening on your local street corner in terms of is there a protest or not.
49:12 Like, there's noise and then there is the signal. And I think what you're really maybe one lesson for me taking out of this conversation is just like if earnings are growing faster then the company's value is going up. That likely means that there's a lot more runway to go in those companies than not. >> So, let we very seldom talk about anything political. I don't I don't know if we really have. and I think that's a function at least from my side, I can't speak for you.
49:38 I I I don't think about those in the context of investing. I actually believe that one of the reasons that the University of Michigan consumer confidence level is at all-time lows is because if you break it down by the politics, Republicans right now are much more positive than Democrats. If we had a Democratic president, the numbers would be flipped. >> 100%. >> And so, that doesn't really help me invest. It The only part that I care about is if you're a person watching this and you believe that the country is going to blow up because of what's going on with ice, or you believe because of ice I want to invest more money, both of you are wrong.
50:21 The market is moving on earnings. The market is moving on what's happening with AI, and political issues, religious debates, war debates. It's driven by what's happening from the economy and what's happening with earnings, and it always falls back into place. If the earnings don't fall a year from now and you're growing at some pace, based on history, the market is very likely to be higher. What is happening is we're seeing multiple compression. You would have expected with this kind of year that the S&P would be up more because the earnings are up 30 are going to be up 30 plus percent, and the S&P is unless it really accelerates is not going to be up that much.
50:58 That is kind of where I answer the question for me without politics. What do I think is disrupting the stock market? And I believe it is the negative side of AI. Bernie Sanders came out this week and made a very big political statement on AI, almost like a threat about the people involved in it, Anthropic and OpenAI. Even though it wasn't a threat, but it's a political issue, and they want to stop data centers, and they want to stop this and go through this. I don't get involved in that. I deal with the facts of are the data centers still being plugged in? Yes. Are we going to grow?
51:31 Yes. If I was living near a data center, would I move away from it for my kids? Yeah, I probably would. That's my choice in the situation. That's as political as I am. You tell me the rules, I will adjust to what I think the rules are going to be. And if I don't like the rules in here, I'll either fight to get them changed or I'll go move somewhere else and just figure a way to go through it. I just try not to get through this unless it's impacting my kids and the way that I live my life. I just think human beings and governments and friction, this stuff happens and it's going to continue to happen. I just hope that people can be happy every day and that's the only thing that I'm trying to impact.
52:08 >> You know what's interesting to me about the data centers? Texas just came out with not not a moratorium, but it's kind of like a let's slow down and think about this and and talk through and and you know, kind of collaborate maybe is the the right way to think about it. I saw multiple AI companies, I believe Caruso, Hut 8, there's probably some others, that build data centers. They're like, we agree with this, we want to work with the government, etc. That's a very different response than the software AI companies, which have been very abrasive towards the government.
52:38 And so it does feel like when you're building physical things in the real world, reality kind of tethers everyone to the ground. Like either you can build or you can't, right? There's no like, you know, our engineers are just fine working in our office and then we'll figure out if we can sell it later. And so I thought it was actually a pretty positive development. That you have in a state that tends to be, you know, or at least thought of as more kind of conservative leaning and and you know, pro business, less regulation, etc.
53:06 You actually have the AI data center builders and the government all coalescing around this idea of like, let's work together, let's figure this out. We understand there's trade-off decisions to be made and we need both sides to come together and and figure this out. That's very different than say in New York where they're just like, hey, it's a blanket ban, we're not going to do this and you know, the AI people are all freaking out cuz they feel like they're, you know, under attack.
53:27 >> so my my because of where we are in technology right now and because time is moving much faster, this fits in my time category and this is the way I've kind of processed it. If the So, I don't have a problem at all with parents not wanting a terrafab near their kids or a data center near their kids. We don't have enough data and you only find out afterwards if the radiation, if this, if that impacts and there isn't enough time to go through.
53:55 It's the same way I felt about the vaccines. The people that have problem with taking the vaccine after COVID when it didn't go through the normal vetting process on a new technology, that's their own personal opinion and they should have that and go through it. For the people that did it that are really worried and it brought them comfort, they should go through it. The benefit that comes from the data center pushback and the friction for the people who like I agree that voters should have a right.
54:21 Elon Musk is thinking now about space. So I don't know if you've heard this, but there are people that don't believe we should build them in space either. Because the debris could fall. We're getting too busy up like there's humans are never going to be happy, Anthony. There will never be a time that everyone's going to be like, you know what, that's a good idea. I think we're all on the same page with that. >> Let's go underground. He's going to bore the tunnels. Let's go underground then.
54:47 >> That's the what separates us from from animals. In animals, they just they fight it out. They kill each other. Do whatever. We're trying to live in packs of people. As sapiens went through, we are the only species on the planet that can live, I forget what the numbers are, in in greater than what is it? Like 50 50 without killing each other. we're just always going to disagree because we've got this thing between our heads and I think it's a good thing because if one person says we can't do this, then a human will go, well, let's figure out a way that we can satisfy that problem and still get it done. Then there'll be another complaint and we come up with another one. That is what creative destruction is is you actually need the friction, the not agreeing to come up with a better idea and because we have AI now, we will keep coming up with more and more ideas. No way everyone will ever be satisfied with any decision.
55:42 And that's just the way it's going to be with humans forever ever ever. >> I don't think it's a bad thing, either. >> No, I don't either. >> It ends up in a in a better spot. all right, anybody who is who's watching this, if you do not watch Jordi's video on Sundays, what are you doing? You're you're lost in the sauce. Let's go. Go to YouTube, search Jordi Visser. He does a video every single Sunday, which is like this is this is for the smooth brains. This for the like, you know, me me people. Smaller brains here. Little watered down version, call it Jordi light. On Sunday, you get the full package, you know, you get the whole analysis, deep in-depth. he uses big SAT words and you know, really makes everyone educated.
56:19 >> I hated school. I don't have big SAT words unless they come from AI. >> I just want to call out earlier you said, you know, I think a lot. >> >> That was like the best line ever. >> I I think a lot, but I don't worry a lot. That's the difference. I don't worry a lot. I think a lot. So >> Yeah, >> One ask I do have. >> All right, what's your what's your ask?
56:38 >> It's not for you, it's for the audience. So I've been working all summer, not the entire summer, but in the points that I don't not working on other things, on making sure that and this is for the crypto community. My job, I feel, beginning in September in for the following year is what we talked about with Figure today. I need data to do a 30- to 60-minute video twice a month to start and then every week going forward in the same format that I do my regular weekly one.
57:14 These are educational things. I need to to basically explain to hedge fund people, mutual fund people, all of the people that have turned Anthony away when he's tried to raise money from them in the past, to be involved with crypto, to get people to buy Bitcoin. I need the best websites, the best data, the best everything. For me to be successful at this, I need to create a data-driven story every week of what's happening in the most important tokens around crypto and show people the stories that are happening.
57:48 I've been collecting this data. There's been really good people out there that are helping me, but I figure this audience is loaded with a lot of smart people. Jordi wants to do a regular video where he helps the community, but he needs more information, more data. He needs to speak to people. The complaint I gave about figure about not speaking to management, I'm getting more involved. The Bitcoin Policy Institute reached out. I had a great conversation with them. I'm trying to speak to smarter people in the space that are ready for the launchpad cuz the launchpad is here, guys, and I want to be involved with spreading the word.
58:23 >> You hear that noise? That's me calling Mike Cagney. Mike, let's go. Don't worry. I got you. All right. Send Jordi all your ideas. Make sure that you get him websites, data, things that he should be reading. If you create content, this your shot. Shoot your shot at Jordi. If you don't create content, but you like someone who does, then go ahead and tell them so he can get some some information. >> put my my email address, and I hate to do this.
58:46 >> Ooh. Okay. Go ahead. Go ahead. >> jordi@vincer-labs.com. That is jordi@vincer with a hyphen labs.com. >> Give him your cell phone number. I dare you. >> Nope, not doing that. >> >> I'll be too busy. My phone rang three times while we did this. >> All right. We'll see you guys next week. >> See you.