Transcript
0:00 Almost a year ago, I showed you three quantum computing stocks on this channel. One of them went up over a,000%, another went up like 800%, a third one tripled. They were real returns properly documented. But this video isn't about quantum computing. This is about something completely different. There is a market that Donald Trump opened up with one stroke of the pen back in April of this year. And if I'm right about the way this is shaping up, it could produce returns just as big over the next three to five years. Now, I'm bringing this to you because this is not on the headlines. I don't care about the headlines. I don't care about the news. I care about where the money, the big money is flowing and how we can follow that. Now, of course, I'm not a registered financial adviser. I'm not registered for anything. I'm not telling you what to buy, but I'm sharing with you the research and the insight that I've dug up that I learned from my Wall Street mentors. And the next 20 minutes, I'm going to break this down for you.
0:58 I'm going to give you the actual three tickers. I'm going to show you the hows and the wise, and then you can make your own decision. So, what happened on April 18th? Donald J. Trump signed an executive order fasttracking a brand new category of mental health treatment. Plus, he handed out $50 million in research funding. Some of these treatments were designated as priorities, national priorities, and they would get priority voucher status for certain drugs. Now, the category we're talking about is called psychedelic assisted therapy. It's mostly built around magic mushrooms, but a sort of synthetic labm made version of it. And they're given to you in a clinic with a doctor on a white coat rather than you, you know, high on a beach in Thailand. Now, I personally don't care about psychedelic assisted therapy specifically, but the numbers behind it, which I'm going to get to in a moment, are insane. So, what happened in the market? Well, there are three small biotech stocks that were tied very close to this order and they popped 20 to 50% the day after this order was signed. Those stocks are Compass Pathways, ticker symbol CNS, Atibbeckley, ticker symbol ATI, and GH Research, ticker symbol GHRS.
2:20 But after the spike, the news cycle moved on. People are forgetting about and the reason this category is interesting isn't speculation. It's that we already know exactly what this trade looks like at scale. It's already happening at another stock which is a teeny tiny little company called Johnson and Johnson. You know the people who make baby powder safe. Um and actually I bought this late last year. It went up about 45% or so and I' I've sold it again. And if you understand how to follow the money, then you'd understand why the heck I'd sell it. But why am I talking about Johnson and Johnson? The drug Johnson and Johnson built that everybody said would flop is now doing $2 billion a year.
3:07 This little case study here, this Johnson Johnson case study is going to be very important to understand the maths later to show you the 10x potential in this sector. I'm not promising you 10x, right? I'm not promising you anything at all, but I see potential. So Johnson and Johnson, they got FDA approval in 2019 and it's for a drug that's called Sprat or something like that. It's a nasal spray for patients with depression that don't respond to standard anti-depressants. I hate anti-depressants. Just thought I'd mention that. So we're looking at the same group of people that are being targeted by the psychedelic drugs coming out. Now, how much does Johnson and Johnson charge for this this little drug of theirs? Well, of course they're doing it basically free because they really care about your well-being. It's $590 a dose. You're going to take it twice a week for the first month. And when this came out, everyone in the industry said that's going to be a flop. People said it's expensive. The UK, where I'm right now, the watchdog refused to cover it.
4:06 They said it was too expensive. The headlines were terrible. And the narrative was that nobody would ever pay for this thing. Insurance would never cover it. And Johnson and Johnson had wasted years of R&D on a dead product. Now, let me tell you why these people are wrong. In the first quarter of 2026, this little drug brought in almost $500 million in revenue. It went up almost 50% over the previous year. It's almost $2 billion in annual revenue. Bloomberg just called it Johnson and Johnson's blockbuster psychedelic drug.
4:44 And understanding this, this precedent, this proof of pudding is the precedent for everything that comes next in this video. We know the market exists. We know the patients exist. We know the insurance companies are going to pay for it. We know you can charge a lot of money for magic mushrooms. So, we're not speculating about this. Could be maybe this is already working at one very large company and now the regulatory door is open for three more companies to do something very similar. But before you run out and buy Johnson and Johnson, I did tell you I'd already bought it. I already sold it. Locked in 40% gains. I tell you why. I don't think Johnson and Johnson is the psychedelic opportunity.
5:27 It is a massive, massive company. them selling an extra $2 billion on the drug barely moves the stock. I mean, I say barely, you know, we still made 40% profits on this thing, which is better than a kick in the teeth, but it's not going to 10x Johnson and Johnson, right? Johnson Shell essentially doesn't even know they have this drug called Sprobato. But if you picture the same drug doing the same revenue inside a company that's worth maybe a billion dollars, roughly where Compass is sitting right now, the maths becomes very very different. If this little company here called CMPS, that's the ticker symbol here and I've got the chart open here in Trade Vision. If you guys want to get yourself access to Trade Vision, there's a link down below as well which includes all the AI features and a free trial. So check that out. But this drug that they have is called COM P 360. Looks sexy, right?
6:24 Let's just say it does half of what J and J does. Half, right? Over say five years. So what does that mean? Well, that would mean that they would get to $1 billion in revenue in say five years. These kind of companies who have a drug that is patent protected, they will typically trade at five to 10 times valuation of their sales. So we're now looking at a five to 10 billion stock on the basis of one drug, four to eight times gains compared to where it's trading right now. If Compass got anywhere near to like Johnson Johnson and Johnson's numbers because Johnson and Johnson is guiding to for 5 billion sales a year, you'd be looking at well some pretty crazy stuff right now. I want to be very clear. This is not a forecast. I don't have a crystal ball.
7:21 Winston keeps eating them, but it's what could happen if everything goes sort of half right. So, you got to get FDA approval, successful commercial ramp, no major major safety surprises, um, and no massive dilution that wipes out shareholders. We're going to get to all of that, but the maths is what makes the category worth being in the have a look at this now phase. And if you just zoom out for a second and look at the patient base, why is this Johnson and Johnson drug even possible? Because the demand has been there for 40 years. There are 280 million unfortunate souls in the world who live with serious depression.
8:03 About 85 million are on the same drugs that don't work. Did I just say that out loud? Some people might say they don't work. Some people say that they do. So, the pills don't do anything for them. They've tried them often for years, get all the side effects, none of the benefits, except the people who make them get a lot of benefit from them. 84 million people, right? That's the population of Germany, which is which is where I'm from. Um or um Iran, say, isn't it? Isn't Iran about that? Maybe it's a little bit more Turkey. I think it's about the same. So, it's an entire country's worth of patients and the system has no real answer for them, right? Or the veterans who come home with PTSD, severe anxiety, uh addiction, all that stuff, they are all being put on these drugs. But all these people are waiting for treatment that actually works. So there is a real documented insurance paying treatment seeking huge number of patients who want stuff. These new psychedelic drugs are targeting that population. There is not just depression. There is PTSD, there's anxiety, there's addiction. It's all sort of a variation of the same theme.
9:09 You know, people experience some horrible trauma and then then they get depressed. Wall Street in its loving nature says they think that market is worth around $400 billion in market size. So you got 280 million people with serious depressions. 30% of them don't respond to standard treatment. So it's about 85 million. So you have a huge huge huge opportunity here. $400 billion worth according to the Wall Street loons. Mental health is the pretty much the leading cause of disability globally, right? It's a terrible thing and it's good. We can treat it. So why not? It isn't just a Trump story. The reason this category was frozen for 40 years was something called uh Prozac.
9:52 Prozac came out in 1987 before the internet really existed. And for nearly 40 years when one anti-depressant pill didn't work, the system always said try a different version of the same pill. Same chemistry, slightly different brand, slightly different side effect profile. Basically the same thing, right? The door always stayed closed because there was a regulator who wouldn't let anything genuinely new through. So Trump's executive order isn't the cause of all of this, but it is a signal. The FDA has been approving more new mental health treatments in the last 5 years than the prior 40 years. RFK Jr., who now runs the HHS, has been openly pushing the agenda. More drugs. actually lawmakers from both parties in the US, which is pretty rare they agree on anything, have been introducing bills, bipartisan bills to deal with mental health and veteran health and so on. So, let's look at these three names in detail so you understand them. But first, let me give you a framework because I can always give you a fish.
10:53 It's going to get smelly by, you know, 3 days into it. Or I can give you a framework, something you can actually apply again and again and again. It'll make you smarter, which is always my intention. So, get a pen out, write this down. The first number I really generally care about is what's the profit per sale. Wall Street calls this gross margin, but essentially it's how much of every dollar of sales does the company keep after the cost of making the drug. Now, for a real drug company with real protection, you generally speaking get 70% of the money. And the second part I want to look at is how long is that patent valid for? How many years until competitors can legally copy the drug and crash the price? Five years is not enough. 15 years is decent. The longer the better. So 15 years plus is where you want to be. Now the third part is is the drug on the market making money. So we generally speaking are cautious of trials because they are risky and we like things that are already selling. So selling good trials bad. Yeah. Trials also depend on the FDA and what they might think and so on. So I'm going to run all three of these companies through these filters and they all fail some of them for different reasons. And that's why it's important to take some time, look at an industry, understand what makes a good baseline, what makes a good company, and then make decisions after that. So you're no longer going to be gambling on something you don't understand. By the end of this video, you'll actually understand it. So let's start off with compass pathways. Here's the stock chart, which may may or may not mean something to you, but if you zoom out, it was trading at 1.60 $60, which is uh a pretty bigly crash down.
12:37 We're still about 83% down. And I quite like that. And I like it for a simple reason that we've done bugger roll for years. That is usually the kind of setup that gives us potentially the biggest rally. And we're already moving up, moving on up. It's a nice 80s song, isn't it? And that again is a positive thing. So being if you're not looking at this and you're going, "Oh, I'm late. I should have put it here." No, it's good to be a little late. It makes it a higher probability setup, a higher cleaner setup. So why are we starting with compass? Compass is the furthest along. They have the biggest catalyst, the cleanest setup. So if any of these three stocks really crack the um magic mushroom, the math says the math says it's most likely going to be compass.
13:23 They got a drug called comp 360 which is a synthetic version of what's in magic mushrooms and it's built specifically for treatment resistant depression. Same patient group that the Johnson and Johnson lot are targeting. It's a single dose and the effects are felt within a day. The trials measure durability out to 26 weeks which has never been done with any kind of psychedelic. So they've completed phase three trials. The data is generally in a range that the FDA accepts. So, we're looking for FDA approval maybe in 2026, late or in early 2027.
14:02 If they get it, Compass becomes the first company in history to have a classic psychedelic approved by the FDA. Now, what about our filters? What's our first filter? Profit per sale. Well, they're not selling yet, so we haven't got any data there. So, we kind of fail on that count. What about the patent stuff? Well, they have multiple patents on it on the formulation, the dosing protocol, the manufacturing. It's a possible, but the proofs always in the legal pudding once it actually is out there and it gets challenged and someone tries to copy it and there's a law lawsuit, right? So, we don't really know the data here on that yet. So, overall, I see a lot of uncertainty and that is exactly what you get if you're looking for 10x stocks. You get a lot of uncertainty. It's the same kind of pattern, by the way, that we saw with Regetti in the quantum video, right?
14:52 It's the same conclusion. It's not an investment. It is a calculated speculation. You own it for the catalyst, not the current business. And the catalyst calendar is, well, the FDA approval, right? Drug goes on the market. Insurance companies start paying for it, right? So, why has the stock got this crazy stock chart that would scare most people? Well, they they listed they listed in 2021 somewhere and then the whole run up the whole meme stock thing up to $60 crashed to below four currently trading at about 10. And it's the typical innovation story. This is what happens to innovation stocks.
15:26 Stocks do this. Why? Because expectations are monstrous at the beginning. Like, oh my god, this is amazing. It's going to solve everything. It's going to make so much money. Yeah. Right. And then you realize it's going to take way way way way way longer to get the approval and the triyouts and everything else. And people lose what? Interest. Not interested anymore, but they also lose lots of money. And then nothing happens. And it gets really, really, really boring.
15:54 And then typically what happens is if the innovation is good and right, you recover. And you don't just recover, you potentially go much much much much higher than the initial peak. Why? Because usually innovation just takes longer, but it's usually much greater than our P-sized brains can imagine. Same story for quantum. So, let me quickly, a little more quickly run you through the second stock, ATI ATI Beckley. This is a slightly different play. I would call this the diversified play. Compass is focused on one single drug bet. ATI is the platform bet.
16:32 They're a clinical stage biotech company built like a venture portfolio. Not one drug, not two drugs, not three drugs, not four drugs. No, they have five drugs that are in clinical development. Very interesting from a commercial scaling perspective because if it works, it's a treatment that doesn't require a clinical setting at all, which could be a really, really easy way to sell it. They merged with a company called Beckley. at Beckley Scitec in December which broadens the pipeline further. It is Peter Tealbacked. You know the guy behind PayPal and Palunteer and pretty much every other investment out there.
17:05 Peter Tealback. Yeah. They also hold a stake in Compass. Yes. And they license Compass's drug for some territories. So you get partial exposure to Compass either way. Now they got no meaningful sales yet. The patent protection depends on each compound individually. Five separate patterns estates. It's actually a good thing because you have say if one or two of them fail, you might still have three or four that hold up, right? Are they selling? No. But look at the stock chart here. Similar story. Ran up to like $23. It went up,300%.
17:40 And now it's basically back to where they listed. So you you you lost all the money. And that's what I always say. It's it's all about following the money. Don't buy and hold these things till death do you part because you're going to go broke before that. Companies a similar size to Compass. So it's a slightly safer bet if that word is one I should use in this context because of course these are very high-risk speculations. And then third but not least we have GH research plc. These are the technology bet. Their technology is built around one compound 5 ot whatever that means. It is basically a different psychedelic. It acts for much shorter period of time and again it's for treatment resistant depression. Now, why is what they're doing important right now? To take the compass drug a 6 to eight hour long clinical session. To take the GH drug, if it works, it's potentially a 30 minute session. So, if you're a clinic, do you want to sell a drug that takes like 6 hours to deliver or 30 minutes to deliver? What do you think? Shorter sessions mean more patients per clinics, which means much faster commercial adoption. So, if you look apply our filter, filter one, then no sales. paid and protection. It's one compound, one mechanism, so it's a little bit higher risk than the last one we looked at and they're not selling. So again, you haven't got much data on these things. You can't look at the fundamentals. You can't really look at the margins. You haven't got any of that data. And that's the risk if you're looking for 10x stocks. This is a pre-revenue biotech opportunity. It is speculation. Speculation is fine, but it has to be sized as speculation. I'm not giving you financial advice, but I would be looking at 1 to 3% of portfolio spread across the entire category, whether that's one stock or three stocks. So, you want to find some more combined. Why am I saying that?
19:29 Because look, if this thing 10xes and I'm right, which I might not be, then you'd end up with 10 to 30% of your portfolio in psychedelics, which is a pretty unreasonably large thing and you might want to take some profits and and get get the heck out. What happens if you make a decision to invest in something like this and you're wrong? What happens? Well, you lose 1 to 3% of your portfolio, which isn't going to have that big of an impact on your life.
19:59 You're still going to retire roughly the same time you wanted to. You're not going to have to like, you know, cut out the the biscuits. Um, you'll be just fine. That is how smart investors invest. They don't go all in on something. They don't buy a lottery ticket with all their money. They buy a lottery ticket with a small amount of money. That's the whole point. But there are risks here. They might not get FDA approval, right? To me, approval looks probable for Compass. Not certain, but probable. And a lot of these companies are going to raise capital before they really start selling these these these these drugs. And that might dilute you, right? So, they issue more shares. It's like inflation. It's like what the government does. And they might start selling these drugs and people might be like, "Yeah, we don't want it. Just don't want it, right? This might not work. Politics could change, right? RFK might not no longer be there as the champion of the um, you know, alternative medicine space." and uh and Johnson and Johnson might just be like, "Yeah, we really don't like this."
20:53 Convince the next RFK that these drugs really are not in the best interest of the American public. It would be much much better if um Johnson and Johnson would have no competition. You know, there might be a rational argument for that, right? So, I'm showing this to you because I think it's a genuine opportunity. I think it's one of those big ones, but I'm also saying be careful. Don't go all in. If you go all in, you end up crying. I don't want you crying. and you might not like it. Well, look what there are safer ways to invest your money. You don't have to do the speculation. I do both. I put a lot of my money into what would be considered much safer things and then I see these opportunities and I put small amounts of money and then if it goes right then we potentially, you know, have a regretti moment which was beautiful. You know, from we first talked about it here in late 2024 it went up, you know, some ridiculous amount. Now, am I promising you that? No, of course not. But it's beautiful. But also note that from the top we're presently down 67%.
21:56 So you need to understand when to take profits. You need to understand there is a timing element to it. It's not timing it perfectly. No, you're never going to do that. But it is about understanding where the money flows, when the money flows, and how the money flows and how to read that. And if you stick around on this channel, you'll learn it. We run live training sessions on this from time to time. Again, stick around on the channel, subscribe and and you learn it.
22:20 And if you got some value or anything you think there might be might be something in this, then just share this video with other people. That's all I'm asking, right? I didn't sell you anything. I didn't have taken a single dollar from a pharmaceutical company. We've never taken any money from any third party, any other company out there. Uh and I never will because I don't need to. And it's a beautiful position to be in. I don't have to be somebody's There, I said it. So, I wish you all the best. I wish you tremendous success. And if you got some value out of this, share it with somebody else.
Summary
- Trump's executive order opened up funding and research for psychedelic-assisted therapy, particularly targeting treatment-resistant depression.
- The speaker emphasizes the potential for high returns, drawing parallels to past successes in quantum computing stocks.
- Compass Pathways is highlighted as the most advanced company with a drug (COMP360) in phase three trials, potentially receiving FDA approval by 2026.
- Atai Life Sciences offers a diversified approach with multiple drugs in development, while GH Research focuses on a shorter-acting psychedelic treatment.
- The mental health market is estimated at $400 billion, with a significant number of patients seeking effective treatments.
- Risks include potential FDA approval challenges, market acceptance, and stock dilution from capital raises.
- The speaker advises a cautious investment strategy, suggesting allocating only 1-3% of a portfolio to these high-risk stocks.