NVDA Fears Trigger Risk-On Sell Off! My Expectations for HIMS, META, NVDA, NBIS & IREN. Too Cheap?

0:00 Hello everybody. So this video is entitled Nvidia fears trigger a broad selloff especially in high beta stocks. It's like all stocks are heading down right now at least risk on stocks and there are stocks that persist in being cheap. They are just consistently cheap. Nvidia in my view by the way is one of these stocks. I'll talk about NVI in a second. The first stock that I consistently find cheap and I found this stock cheap for years is HIMS. HIMS is constantly being the punching bag of the market. and you can see as soon as the market decides to buy risk, HIMS also bumps quite a bit. You know, HIMS has had quite quite a handful of, you know, plus eight plus 7 plus 6% days.

0:53 Today we get a down 6% day for virtually no news. The only flaw that I see on HIMS is that it's in the risk on bucket. We have two major catalysts for him which which are still intact which are GLP1s are taking off. It's in full swing. They have the entire suite of GLP1s. They have both branded GLP1s. They make a bunch of money on the 139 $149 a month follow-up fee with the doctors that they have to pay each month. Even if they make less money on the branded version of GB1, they still make a lot of money on the follow-up on the prescription on the doctor's orders.

1:36 And so to me, that's that's a major catalyst. And we have another catalyst which is the peptides. And the peptides, we know six out of the seven round of peptides might be approved and that could be November of this year. That could be January of 2027. There's a lot of buzz about peptide and the market is entirely sleeping around it and entirely ignoring it. And I'll conclude with GB1 GB1's. So don't forget, of course, HIMS sells Lily's product now. It's they don't call it a partnership. It's more like a redirection towards Lily's pharmacy, but they sell Lily's GLP1. And there's a big GLP one that me coming from Lily called True Tide, which is called the Blockbuster of all drugs. And so HIMS in my view would very much benefit from offering that GLP1 as well on their platform. I do not understand why the stock is still at a 0.11 on enterprise value over gross profit or revenue growth, which is my preferred metric for analyzing stocks. It is a peg. It It is my own spin on the PEG ratio, except I don't use earnings. I use gross profit instead because I believe that after gross profit.

2:45 Whatever a company does in the 21st century is an investment. R&D, I look at it as an investment. I don't look at it as a cost. Marketing, especially for a business that has recurring revenue, I look at this as an investment. I don't I don't look at this as a cost. So that's why I much prefer using a metric like gross profit when analyzing a stock and when figuring out whether that stock is cheap or not. The rule of 40 is still there at 46. The bida margin is 9%.

3:13 Don't forget their long-term guidance their long-term guide target on margin is between 20 and 30% right into the 2030s. So that would be absolutely outstanding to me. I don't understand why this stock is so cheap. you know I will continue to pound the table on this one. I've been pounding the table on this ones for for five bucks and you know I'm waiting for the opportunity to see it expensive and maybe consider selling it but it's we're nowhere near there right now. We're nowhere near there. So let's talk about the other stock and that's the stock that is triggering this sell-off of course and it is Nvidia and I have also always called Nvidia cheap over the past year and case in point in fact when you look at Nvidia's performance on one year oneear performance we're at up 15% so we're down from the historic performance of the NASDAQ if you look at the NASDAQ over the past few years we've performed above 20% on the NASDAQ so we're lagging the NASDAQ back this this prior year. And it's not the case at all for the revenue, by the way. The revenue is firing on all cylinder. The product lineup is firing on all cylinder. They're raising their prices by 17%. They announced that on Monday the stock was down. Anyways, the performance the past year for Nvidia was 15%. If you look at NASDAQ, 24%. 24% on the NASDAQ, 15% on Nvidia. We are lagging the NASDAQ by 9%. And of course the market is fearful because we have earnings this evening. And you know I I would argue given the reaction that we saw on Monday after Nvidia announcing AI s server price raises of 17%. We saw the stock dump on on Monday. You may remember that. My guess is that market market makers have decided that they want to dump Nvidia. And so Nvidia is is the the the risk on darling of the market. the biggest risk on blue chip is Nvidia and the market has just decided that it wants to dump it and so you know I don't know what's going to happen tonight with earnings but my intuition tells me that it's going to dump that the market makers are going to dump the stock and then usually over the next few days it recovers at at at least that's a pattern that I've noticed on so many so many so many stocks you know for Nvidia a good quarter is not enough for for them to actually break out of that part pattern, they would need to have an absolutely outstanding quarter, a good quarter is not enough for Nvidia.

5:43 and you know, we'll see. We'll see. We'll see what what happens. But the market is definitely placing a lot of bets around Nvidia today. And and that's that's why I I kind of look at it and I I think the market makers will will find one thing to nitpick in the report and then drop it. That has been the market for the past few months. and and and you know even though I'm I'm I'm very happy about the performance of Bitcoin related stuff lately and you know on this channel I covered Bitcoin quite a bit Nvidia is one of the stock that still is is lagging and it's especially lagging in light of other AI plays like the Neoclouds like the Nebus and the Iron of the World which are up between 100 and 200% for the year and I'll get to that towards the end of the video to these neoclouds I'll talk about them at the end of the video I want to talk about another stock which is actually up today, but I consider it the same as if it was down. It's actually up today, but to me, it's still down in unison with the rest of the market with the fear of Nvidia's earnings tonight. That's Meta.

6:46 What's going on with Meta? We are only up 1% today. we we were actually actually down in the morning. We we opened down this morning. So, as far as I'm concerned, this is a red day for Meta. Why? because the the out of the blue, you know, I wasn't expecting this so quickly. I I was expecting them to pay something. I knew they were going to negotiate. I knew I mean I I thought it was never going to be 1.4 trillion, but I wasn't going to expect I wasn't expecting them to settle for for for 17 billion. This is an outstanding news for Meta. The overhang of the stock for the past two weeks is now gone. And then you have the stock down in in the morning after being up 5% at 1.6% in pre-market.

7:33 This stock was up and so it moved from up from five to 6% in pre-market to as soon as the market opens we dump and we open in the red and we open only down 1%. On you know the I mean 17 billion for Meta is is is nothing. I mean, you know, it sounds exaggerating to say that, but but but it's essentially nothing compared to the size of this company, compared to the to the cash flow of this company. It's it's essentially nothing. I mean, I mean, this this company has 228 billion in revenue, ibida margin is 48%, gross margin is 82%.

8:10 This is really not much of a fine for them. So, to me, this is the most bullish wish we news we've had in weeks. And the fact that the stock is only up 1% of this tells me once again that the market is in fear mode. It's in riskoff mode and it's fearful about Nvidia tonight and it's fearful about the Jackson Hole speech on Friday from Kevin Walch which as I've said in my prior videos has had a history of dumping stocks and so people maybe want to be out and wait it out but you know I'm I'm I'm happy to see this news on Meta. I think this is very bullish for Meta, but this is yet another example how the stock price does not necessarily move in accordance to the quality of the information. The market is highly inefficient in my view and we'll finish discussing the inefficiency of the market by talking between NIBUS and iron. So I've covered iron quite a bit over o over over the the next few times. Okay, this one was a year ago, so let's remove that one. But I I've made I've made about three videos in the past three weeks about iron. And my main observation and this was this was even more true when Nibius was back at 270 280 in no time. You remember that last week, right? the valuation delta between the two and the valuation delta between the two at one point when you looked at at trailing 12 months valuation the ratios at one point you had Iran who looked between four and five times cheaper than Nibius. So now if I look at iron, I find it about three and a half times cheaper than Nibbius on a trailing 12 months price ratio basis. To me, there's still a delta, but the delta is not as strong as it as it used to be. but but but you know, and I of course is is kind of a challenger to to Nibius. You know, they're more concentrated. They have fewer deals.

9:59 They have they have more deals to be signed. Nibbius Nibius is is is more established, at least as far as the number of deals they've got. They have they have an elite founder which has a relationship with the folks at Google and all the big tech companies. Nibbius is a spin-off of Yandex. Yandex used to be the Google of Russia. So so so Nibbius from a quality standpoint is to to me my favorite Neocloud is still Nibbius. But I can't explain the valuation disconnect because both of these companies are aiming for more than five gawatts of compute rented out, GPU clusters rented out in their NeoCloud business, right? Nibbius has a little more software than Iron. Iron doesn't have much software at all to offer.

10:44 but they still both own the GPUs. They are still both vertical vertically integrated NeoClouds just like Corore. Cor is the least interesting out of the three in my opinion. Anyways, talking about iron and nibbius today, you can see down together down in unison. because the market seems to be continuing seems to be the market seems to be running with the narrative that Nvidia raising prices raising his prices is somehow bad for them. Well, first of all, if they've already signed deal, it's it's very likely that they have contracts in place and they either already ordered the products or they have escalators if they have not ordered the products where they can raise the prices. Now, I believe this this argument that the margins could could be squeezed. The argument is a little more true for Nibbius than for iron because Nibbius has already has already signed long-term contracts. And it's true that if the value of compute went up by 17% as of January 2027, if the value of compute went up, Nibbius can't just raise the prices that it it already negotiated. But it's more like you're leaving some money on the table rather than you're losing money. You're not getting squeezed. you're just losing out on the opportunity to charge a little more for your contracts. Iron on the other hand has an enormous runway of contracts to be signed and they can sign them at that new rate and and and that new rate you know of course we will bring in more money especially they've already ordered a lot of the GPUs which they have ordered quite a bit both of these companies have already ordered quite a bit both of these companies have a relationship with Nvidia one of them has a direct investment from Nvidia two billion NBUS iron has more of of a compute type of deal with Nvidia but they're still going to get a bunch of cash from Nvidia Yeah. and all these stocks are down because the market decided to sell off risk on today.

12:33 Riskcon is being sold off. And it's especially weird for iron. you know the these these analysts I mean it's it's kind it's kind of crazy. So you have accelerating and you know is like is it do you do do you put in the report at work 3 weeks ago and then it's the company's so slow that you publish the report 3 weeks after you actually submit it in for for validation for by a series of five bosses like is that is that how it works at these companies that they they would trigger they would release a report with a sale rating with a price target higher than the actual price right now. And so that tells me like a lot a lot of an analysis was was done when the stock was higher. And you know how often do they update this stuff? I I I really don't know. But this is this is kind of ridiculous. So this is this is dropping the price perhaps.

13:21 But perhaps a bigger explanation as to why the price is dropping is of course the Nvidia fear and the Jackson Hole fear on Friday. To me when I look at the new clouds the cheapest Neocloud that I think that I find here is in there is iron. I iron to me is the cheaper neocloud. 0.09. It's not It's now looking you looking I mean it's it's always looked cheaper than Nibbius but it looks especially cheaper than Nibbius right now. If Nibbius keep dropping if Nibbius were to drop to like the 180s the 190s I would I I would reassess the situation and who knows what will happen on Thursday night with Nibbius. I don't I have no idea what will happen on Thursday night with Nibbius. With the market the way it is with Jackson Hall on Friday. I'm tempted to say if you report before Jackson Hole, if you if you report near Nvidia, I'm tempted to say you're going to be down. But that's just the nature of the market in this August, especially as people are getting fearful for September and the historic bad performance for the month of September. So anyways, the stocks remain cheap. That is the theme of this year so far. We've had so many opportunities to buy the dips and the dips may continue, but this two shall pass. At one point the market will come back to its senses. Anyways, this was not investment advice. This is not financial advice. This is only entertainment. I'm hoping you are entertained. Please like, please subscribe. Follow me on Patreon. Follow me on X. Thank you for watching and have a wonderful wonderful